Month in Review February 2019 The Month in Review identifies the latest movements and trends for property markets across Australia. Click on any state or page number Contents for immediate access
Feature – 2019: The Year Ahead 3
Commercial - Retail 4 New South Wales 6 Victoria 9 South Australia 11 Queensland 12 Northern Territory 19 Western Australia 20 Australian Capital Territory 22
Residential 23 New South Wales 26 Victoria 37 Queensland 41 South Australia 49 Tasmania 52 Northern Territory 53 Western Australia 54
Rural 56
Market Indicators 62
Disclaimer This publication presents a generalised overview regarding the state of Australian property markets using property market risk-ranking scales. It is not a guide to individual property assessments and should not be relied upon. Herron Todd White accepts no responsibility for any reliance placed on the commentary and generalised information. Contact Herron Todd White to obtain formal, specific property advice on any matters of interest arising from this publication. All rights reserved. This report can not be reproduced or distributed without written permission of Herron Todd White. Month in Review 2019: The year ahead February 2019
When you think about it, the idea of 2019 is an unusual thing. It’s more than just the prime factorisation of 3 x 673.
2019 has the numeric distinction of being a single same... although the perceived severity of “bump” predictions and give us a scorecard on how they digit short of a significant click over in the calendar. varies among the pundits. performed. Doesn’t that seem to promote intrinsic promise? The flow on to other capital cities and regions will If you’re commercially inclined in your property In this respect, it’s like some sort of “almost ran” be a most compelling observation in 2019. Many choices, then this month’s sector is retail and figure... tantalisingly close to 2020 but not quite are expecting demand to just shift beyond the big it’s getting a similar treatment to the above. Our there. In reality though, 2019 should be a year of capitals but, In reality, what drives our markets is commercial property doyens are looking forward rejuvenation. far more nuanced than that. and giving a feel for how 2019 will play out in our retail markets around the nation. This year, we actually do have an opportunity If only there was a way you could drill down into a for cathartics. Anyone who looked back to the knowledge base built upon some of our country’s Finally, our rural team have also provided thoughts
December issue of our Month In Review will know most highly informed minds. on the coming year. While drought continues to FEATURE that the tail end of 2018 saw real estate news COMMERCIAL dominated by the trials and tribulations of finance. Heading into this year, we are dealing with the same Some see a shining beacon of hope while others are hunkering issues, but the pendulum is beginning to swing back. in for twelve months of subdued activity. Many at the helm of our political and administrative bodies have highlighted how credit is an important Oh wait! You can! dominate the pages, there are many who still see element of economic momentum in Australia. promise in rural industries. Which locations? Well... This month, we follow a tradition of decades past 2019 will also see Aussies go to the polls as we flip to the back of the document and read up. and ask each of our offices for their expectations of face a federal election in the first half of the their property markets in 2019. There you have it folks – our take on the year year. While a date had not been set at the time of ahead. Make sure you click on your area of interest writing, it is imminent. The mix is compelling. Some see a shining beacon in our handy PDF index to go straight to your of hope while others are hunkering in for twelve In 2018, Sydney and Melbourne were in the desired text. months of subdued activity. Many have highlighted throes of a softening market. Results showed their places of opportunity as well as the options While you’re at it, get on the phone or online and that they were among the least impressive of best avoided in 2019. make contact with your local Herron Todd White Australia’s capitals in terms of annual house price office. Our team stands ready to help ease you into growth. Heading into this year, it appears most The best thing is that come December, each 2019 and beyond with excellent property advice. commentators believe there will be more of the and every one of them will have to revisit these
3 Commercial February 2019 Month in Review National Property Clock: Retail February 2019 Entries coloured purple indicate positional change from last month.
Brisbane Lismore Dubbo South East NSW Gold Coast
PEAK OF MARKET Coffs Harbour Sydney Approaching Starting to Melbourne Peak of Market Decline Newcastle
Alice Springs Ballarat Launceston COMMERCIAL Bendigo Mid North Coast RISING DECLINING Canberra Burnie-Devonport Sunshine Coast MARKET MARKET Echuca Gippsland
Start of Approaching Recovery Bottom of Market Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Barossa Valley South West WA Cairns BOTTOM OF Hobart Mildura MARKET Toowoomba
Adelaide Perth Darwin Rockhampton
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Emerald Townsville This report is not intended to be comprehensive or render advice and neither Gladstone Wide Bay Herron Todd White nor any persons involved in the preparation of this report Mackay accept any form of liability for its contents.
5 Month in Review New South Wales February 2019
Overview with no evidence to suggest that this has slowed Looking ahead, the outlook for retail in Sydney Australia’s retail property sector has had a fairly down as yet. overall remains cautiously positive for 2019. We bumpy ride in recent years and its seems to be the expect prime locations to continue to perform well Within the CBD we have seen an increase in high- case that existing businesses must adapt to survive. along with properties perceived to have growth end retail tenants with evidence suggesting there There are, however, pockets of promise. or redevelopment opportunities in the future and has been some rental growth in prime locations. properties with good returns and long lease expiry This month, we give our expectation of how the High-end retailers are currently looking to secure profiles. That said, we are of the opinion that the retail property sector will play out in 2019 across prime locations in order to meet the growing market looks to be reaching the peak of the cycle all our service areas. demand for luxury goods, mainly from overseas and any tightening of monetary policy or increase tourists. This trend is likely to continue in 2019 in the cost of debt will result in the prevailing Sydney albeit at a slightly more subdued rate. investment yields not being sustainable. The retail market in Sydney has seen substantial Generally speaking, retail rents across most growth over the past twelve months as a result areas of Sydney look likely to remain stable this Newcastle of increased demand for good investment assets, year. Food and beverage outlets remain popular We have a mixed bag of market factors playing growth in rental income and generally lower as do properties with an established retail trade. out in the Newcastle retail space at present. This vacancy rates, despite the continued threat of Evidence also suggests that some areas that is particularly true in the hospitality sector where online shopping and generally negative perception include new retail opportunities (such as Green recent infrastructure upgrades have benefited COMMERCIAL of the retail market. Square) may do well over the next twelve months some retail locations in the Newcastle CBD while The next twelve months look to see continued as retailers try to secure a position in these new these same infrastructure changes have rendered interest in retail but with less demand than in developments that predominantly service the many retail locations untenable for some tenants. 2018. Demand from investors will continue to surrounding residential units. An example of the negative impact of the new light drive the market. Properties with well-established Suburban retail assets with good lease covenants rail line is between the intersections of Worth Place retail tenants and those with underlying future have also seen growth over the past twelve and Merewether Street on Hunter Street. Kerbside development potential will continue to be popular months, which is likely to continue as investors car parking to the northern elevation of this section this year. look for strong performing assets, particularly if of Hunter Street has been removed to make way The Sydney CBD remains strong, as infrastructure they offer some form of future growth potential or for the light rail line. The “walk in off the street” improvements and new development continue and multiple income streams. That said, properties that retailers along this strip have found retailing to be speculation about the impact of these continues to lack exposure, have difficulty maintaining a good extremely difficult and this locality will most likely drive areas of the market. Record rates for retail tenant or are in areas of oversupply of retail should morph into ground level office space before too have been seen in the past six months in the CBD, be avoided by investors as usually these assets will long given the access difficulties. Proximity to the be the first to experience a university campus will play a part in the tenancy Looking ahead, the outlook for retail in Sydney decline in value should the mix here though and we will see retailers tailoring overall remains cautiously positive for 2019. market soften. their offerings to students in this area.
6 On the flip side, food retailers and bars at the market and in part as a reaction to the banking strong demand in non-coastal locations despite the Month in Review northern end of Darby Street and around Crown enquiry. This has reduced the number of potential broader markets being more subdued. February 2019 Street should benefit from the light rail stop in purchasers and therefore has contributed to the fall The recent sale of prime properties continues to close proximity and we note that internal fitout in demand. indicate yields at relatively low levels. In contrast, construction is underway for a number of outlets in It is likely that as time passes, supply will increase demand and yields for secondary properties this area where office property once stood. as weaker demand creates slightly longer sales in fringe locations which have any negative Sales activity in the retail sector slowed periods and therefore supply increases over time. characteristics or inferior tenant profiles have significantly over the past six months. Of the sales remained at higher levels, with analysed yields in We envisage that until the banking enquiry is we have seen, selling periods have increased and the order of two to three per cent higher for similar complete, tighter guidelines will remain in place. yields have now begun to soften for assets of a non-leased product. The completion of the banking enquiry is likely to multi-tenanted nature or those that might indicate provide a release valve as lenders will be able to The exception to this rule is vacant lower priced a higher than average cash flow risk. We do note adjust their policies to meet the inevitable change properties which appeal to owner-occupiers and that well-tenanted property continues to sell at in lending requirements. demonstrate lower yield more in line with national record low yields and of the sales we have seen, tenanted assets. yields remain historically very low. The broader economy does not appear to warrant the doom and gloom being portrayed by the media We envisage this trend to continue while interest We anticipate a relatively slow start to 2019 as the and as such with more balanced lending policies, a rates remain low. market adjusts to new, tighter lender criteria. Some more stabilised market is likely. market adjustment has already been noted and Ultimately the strength in the market can be while we expect some further adjustment, strong Therefore, while there is a risk of decline should relatively fragile and any increase in interest rates, local economic factors indicate that any market supply significantly increase, the market in coastal decline in economic activity or significant decrease value losses should be relatively limited. localities is likely to remain relatively stable over in market sentiment could see a rapid softening in COMMERCIAL the coming twelve months. the market which could result in downward pressure Lismore on values to coastal and non-coastal markets. Despite the coastal market being reflective of a We are entering a period of uncertainty in our seller’s market over the past two to three years, Overall, it’s steady as she goes, however there markets. Despite significant media attention our inland localities have been less buoyant. is underlying risk and uncertainty which is more about declining capital city markets, our coastal Buyers’ appetites for purchasing commercial negative than positive. markets have remained relatively buoyant, albeit real estate remains cautious. Markets are still with softer demand. showing a level of maturity with limited demand Coffs Harbour The limited supply has contributed to this stability. for poorer quality properties in secondary The retail market within the Coffs Harbour CBD is locations, while investors show a strong relatively stable although there is a high number While supply conditions remain limited, we envisage preference for fully leased assets with good lease of shop vacancies and rent price sensitivity. The the market will remain relatively stable, however profiles, particularly national tenants or higher forecast is for a continuation of this. if supply increases in the current weaker demand profile stable local tenants. conditions, it’s likely to result in a softening of the Retail development in Coffs Harbour City Centre is market with slightly higher yields and lower value There are significant variations in demand, yield limited with an ongoing oversupply within the CBD levels over the coming months. and resultant value between prime and secondary strip centre. The Coffs Central development is now properties. Quality investment properties with complete but not fully leased. The immediate future We note that lenders have tightened their lending strong lease covenants (in particular long-term should see a continuation of soft conditions within policies in part due to their concerns about the national tenants) are indicating reasonable to the retail lease market.
7 There have been some strong sales for Additionally, with negative headlines surrounding While the Dubbo economy as a whole is relatively Month in Review redevelopment within the Jetty precinct. Jetty declining house prices, there is a good chance that resilient, with a depth and exposure to both February 2019 Village recently sold and an adjoining development consumers will tighten their purse strings, further government and a diverse range of private site has also sold to the same purchaser. The impacting retailers, particularly those reliant on enterprise sectors, the Dubbo retail sector relies precinct will undergo a modern transformation in discretionary spending. Ultimately, this will lead to on western and north- the medium to long term future. store closures. western regional New South Wales consumers The tightening lending policy by banks is restricting While strip retailing will continue to experience for continued healthy access to funds and therefore having some negative soft conditions, we feel that strong demand will cash flows. Drought in effect on the depth of potential purchasers in the remain in the bulky goods space although the yield these areas does impact local market. Purchasers remain active for strongly cycle has almost certainly reached its low point. negatively on both the leased commercial property subject to the strength A long-term strategy, strong lease covenants and local areas and Dubbo. of the tenant and lease covenants. The strength of identifying value add opportunities will be key for 6.62% In the event that the the local blueberry industry over the past two to investors in 2019. current drought extends three years is generating demand for commercial - 7.00% The local market will continue to evolve and for a significant time real estate from cashed up horticulturalists seeking analysed yields retailers will do their best to adapt to their trading into 2019, then Dubbo, medium term investment at interest rates in excess for retail property environment. The rejuvenation of the Wollongong being the major service of those on offer from term deposits. in Dubbo CBD will advance as the city’s population base centre to the region, There are significant variations in demand, yield grows and we will see more of the traditional could see downward and resultant value between prime and secondary retailers being replaced by those in the food and pressure on shop revenues which would impact properties. Quality investment properties with beverage sector. Rents will remain flat and smaller negatively on enquiry and demand for retail space. strong lease covenants, in particular, those with long shop fronts in the range of 50 to 100 square metres Further, agricultural business owners often invest COMMERCIAL term national tenants, are indicating reasonable to will be in most demand. Incentives required to lease surplus funds in off-farm commercial property in strong demand in non-coastal locations despite the vacant space and extended letting up periods will regional centres such as Dubbo, and their absence broader markets being more subdued. The recent remain common in some locations. reduces the pool of potential investors. sale of prime properties continues to indicate yields In the calendar years 2017 and 2018, we witnessed at relatively low levels. In contrast, demand and Dubbo a tightening in analysed yields for retail property yields for secondary properties in fringe locations Forecasting market movements is always difficult in Dubbo of circa 500 basis points to a range of which have any negative characteristics or inferior given the number of variables influencing the 6.62 to seven per cent, although on reduced sale tenant profiles have remained at higher levels, with actions of market participants. volumes. Given the above market factors, we analysed yields in the order of two to three per cent Overall, as elsewhere, consumer sentiment, cost consider current yields to be at a market peak in higher for similar non-leased product. of living pressures, housing construction, credit Dubbo with yields in 2019 either holding or more Wollongong availability, online sales and potential movements likely softening to reflect increased risk. Rental in interest rates impact consumer spending and rates, on the other hand, are reported to be stable Our crystal ball is telling us that the strip retail therefore demand for bricks and mortar retail with tenants willing to pay current rates for suitable market will continue to be the weakest of the main space. space. However, large floor areas of more than 500 commercial asset classes in 2019 as the industry square metres are proving difficult to lease, with continues to feel the effects of changing conditions However in the Dubbo area, another factor extended vacancy periods, sometimes in excess of surrounding online retailing and consumer influencing the retail property market is the twelve months. spending habits. continuing drought.
8 Month in Review Victoria February 2019
Melbourne Melbourne’s retail property investment market experienced many strong results throughout 2018, with firm yields reflecting the limited availability of quality stock and solid purchaser demand. Whilst demand for quality retail assets remains strong, particularly for well-located properties which have long-term leases and strong lease covenants, there is evidence that tighter commercial lending criteria is restricting access to funds for many potential purchasers. Our research indicates that financial institutions are placing an increased focus on factors such as security of income, lease covenant and length of remaining lease term for assessing serviceability of debt. As a result of the reduction in the Chapel Street, Melbourne Source: Wikipedia COMMERCIAL borrowing power of purchasers, we are beginning to see signs of a slowdown in the constant likely that yields may soften for retail properties in popular precincts appear to be experiencing price rises seen over the past five-year period. secondary locations, particularly in areas with low strong growth, while rental income growth appears When listed for sale, some retail properties tenant demand and high vacancy rates. to be moderate, and in some cases declining, in are experiencing extended selling periods, comparison. As such, the market within these Although purchaser interest for retail properties particularly vacant retail assets and those in precincts tends to be influenced to a large extent by has been relatively high, we are of the view that secondary locations. economic volatility. this is led by an optimistic buyer perception of the During 2019, the Melbourne retail investment market direction and may not ultimately reflect During 2019, the Melbourne CBD and inner market is expected to see varied results across what is actually happening in relation to tenant suburban retail rental markets will continue to be different market segments. We are of the opinion demand, affordability and achievable long-term heavily impacted by population growth, changes that yields will remain stable for retail properties investment returns on property. There appears in consumer behaviour and varied consumer in strong retail locations such as the major strips to be a discrepancy between capital values and confidence. Some areas such as Chapel Street, in the Melbourne CBD and inner suburbs such as rental income growth as capital values within South Yarra and Bridge Road, Richmond are likely Collingwood and Fitzroy, in addition to retail assets to continue to experience high levels such as supermarkets which have long-term leases of vacancies as a result of the ongoing to major national retailers and properties which Finally, the effects of the Royal Banking shift away from traditional retailing have longer term potential for redevelopment. It’s Commission cannot be overstated. towards service and food based uses.
9 Month in Review February 2019 Outer suburban retail markets, in particular those outside established retail locations, will likely be impacted by larger operators who are opting for a more centralised model of retailing that appeals to consumers demanding a more convenient and interactive shopping experience. Smaller retailers, unable to sustain the higher rental rates typically demanded within modern centres, will struggle to adjust to the larger number of vacating tenants along older retail strips unable to provide the convenient experience modern consumers demand. Finally, the effects of the Royal Banking Commission cannot be overstated. We have already seen lenders putting the brakes on loans to most sectors, including the retail sector. Residential prices have fallen in many locations in Melbourne and thus people’s confidence has dropped and “mums and dads” and small businesses seem to have less to spend. We have just witnessed one of the worst Christmas spending periods in recent COMMERCIAL times, due largely to the above. If these trends continue, tenants will find it more difficult to meet their occupancy costs, landlords will have to soften their rental demands and the ultimate result may be falling retail rents and capital values in the short to medium term. If interest rates rise in 2019 then downward pressure on retail rents and capital values are likely to be even greater.
10 Month in Review South Australia February 2019
Adelaide growth. That has been fine while property prices cause a significant drop in prices due to investors The Adelaide office market appears to be reaching boomed, but with prices now falling, consumers being less active. Coupled with tighter lending a more positive perspective after a challenging 12 will be more constrained when it comes to processes, this could have a detrimental effect on to 18-month period where incentives rose circa 30 spending on retail goods. most property markets if not handled correctly. to 40 per cent. Locally, messages have been mixed. Bunnings Shorten also unveiled a $15 billion energy plan The growth of the defence, health and resources continues to open stores with its $45 million in November 2018 which proposes an emissions sectors locally has seen some major acquisitions development in Edwardstown currently at frame reduction target of 45 per cent across the economy occur, such as BAE securing 3,000 square metres stage and set to open mid-2019, however German and to have renewable energies achieve a 50 per at 80 Flinders Street and Lockheed Martin and hypermarket retailer Kaufland has stalled cent market share of the electricity market by 2030. Saab negotiating 1,500 and 3,000 square metre construction on its 3.6-hectare site at fringe The coalition stated that commitments to such areas respectively elsewhere. Additionally, CBD location Keswick (former Le Cornu site). It is targets will undoubtedly lead to the closure office supply is to be boosted with 24,500 square rumoured locally that Kaufland has grown tired of of existing businesses and massive job cuts in metres of A-grade space coming on-line in 2019. negotiations with Unley Council and is attempting industries such as aluminium smelters, refineries, to sell the site which it purchased in October 2017. For smaller office tenancies under 500 square fertiliser factories and cement factories. This could metres, it will be business as usual – static For the retail sector to grow locally, there has also have a dramatic effect on commercial property conditions overall, however fringe areas such as to be some household income growth to free up markets. COMMERCIAL Greenhill Road and Fullarton Road (on the city’s discretionary spending. In South Australia, retail sector rents and yields border) are struggling to retain tenants. These With a federal election approaching in 2019 and have remained static overall in the past twelve areas were previously more desirable to inner-city a change in government likely, it is expected that to 24 months, however arterial road showrooms locations for national and international entities, market conditions will remain static until at least we appear to be the biggest hit with rental reductions however improved public transport and greater know for certain who the next prime minister will be. dropping 20 to 30 per cent and almost eradicating general amenities in the CBD has reversed this. their viability. The growth in rezoning the Greenhill Road and Fullarton Road, whilst offering It is understood that Bill Shorten’s election residential medium-density areas along arterial good on-site car parking, are now stuck in no man’s promises will revolve around abolishing negative roads has also encouraged this drop in rental rates. land – positioned awkwardly between growing CBD gearing which the Labor party has indicated office precincts with popular recreational areas and would likely commence around mid-2020. Whilst In terms of retail market opportunities, land remains outer suburban locales which offer greater street reforming negative gearing might make it easier for relatively affordable in Adelaide compared to our parking and more affordable rents. first home buyers to enter the market, it could also eastern seaboard counterparts. The retail sector performed well, generally speaking, in 2018 with retail volumes expanding The Adelaide office market appears to be reaching a more 2.6%, however it’s also been another year when positive perspective after a challenging 12 to 18-month period the household savings rate has tumbled as income growth fails to keep up with spending where incentives rose circa 30 to 40 per cent.
11 Month in Review Queensland February 2019
Brisbane The year ahead is likely to see a continuation and even acceleration of trends that are becoming well established: the continued growth of online retail; the fragmentation of retail markets; the continued struggles of sub-regional shopping centres; and stagnant or falling rentals across many sectors. The Brisbane landscape is however continuing to expand with the recent addition of new boutique retail precincts including the recent opening of both the Howard Smith Wharves development and the first retail laneway at Sekisui’s West Village development. Additionally, there is ongoing growth of the James Street precinct and the King Street precinct. These projects continue to expand Brisbane’s dining and entertainment options, COMMERCIAL possibly at the expense of older precincts. West Village, West End, Brisbane Source: sekisuihouse.com.au In established retail markets, the sentiment is Yields and capital values for retail properties are varied. YIELDS FOR RETAIL PROPERTIES neutral at best. Whilst there is still strong demand CBD retail rents have softened over the past twelve ◗ Neighbourhood centre 5.5% to 6.5% for high quality retail properties, the quality of months with an increase in incentives, particularly ◗ Convenience centre 6.5% to 7.5% the lease covenants and sustainability of rents is in secondary locations. The CBD will also face ◗ Sub- regional 6.5% to 7.25% now firmly in focus with investors. At the private disruption challenges as works on major projects investor end of the market, neighbourhood centre such as the Cross River Rail and the Brisbane Metro yields continue to lead the way with yields in the 5.5 new centres. The rental environment overall start to ramp up. to 6.5 per cent range. Convenience centre yields however remains flat. have flattened out and remain in the 6.5 to 7.5 per Convenience and neighbourhood centres have Sub-regional and regional shopping centres remain cent range. Sub-regional yields are showing signs shown signs of strength with some evidence of under pressure, being most at risk from the growth of softening and are generally in the 6.5 to 7.25 per moderate rent growth in strong population growth of online retailing. The collapse of the Ed Harry cent range. Overall transactional levels are low at locations. Ongoing population growth in greenfield chain highlights the difficult trading environment present due to a shortage of good stock. locations continues to drive the development for clothing retailers in particular. This is putting of new centres and Coles, Woolworths and Aldi Development of service station sites is now downward pressure on rents and capital values. maintain active development programs to support slowing after a strong growth phase over the past
12 four years. The availability of good new sites is We are yet to witness any evidence suggesting downward Month in Review diminishing and a number of localities are reaching February 2019 market saturation. The trend towards fast food pressure on capital values on the Gold Coast. tenancies within new developments is continuing, but at a reduced pace. Implementation of stricter lending criteria by the Coast over the past few years and only so many major lenders, increased debt funding costs and consumer dollars on offer, there will unfortunately There is limited opportunity in retail in the market domestic and international political uncertainty be some retailers who will not see it through. at the present time other than in outer locations. took the wind out of the sails in 2018, suggesting a This is expected to fuel a continuing or even Refurbishment of older centres remains an option, more balanced market leading into 2019. strengthening preference for properties anchored but it can be hard to achieve viability given the flat by national retailers. leasing markets. The NAB Commercial Property Index fell nine points to a two-year low in the third quarter of 2018, but Fortunately, international visitors are still flocking For the year ahead, we foresee a mixed bag for is still well above long-term average levels. Retail to our beautiful beachside city, which will continue Brisbane. Population growth will continue to sentiment dived into negative territory, with average to support the retail market along the beachside sustain development of new centres in outer survey expectations for capital growth over the next suburbs. Official results from last financial year localities and boutique retail areas in inner city one to two years recorded at -1.4 and -1.7 per cent show an 11.1 per cent spike in visitor spending, with locations are likely to continue to expand. We for the retail market. The survey result for retail rent a $1.3 billion benefit to the Gold Coast. Visitor consider however that rentals and yields are likely outlooks has also weakened further and is expected spending on the Gold Coast was notably higher to remain flat across the board and may further to fall in all states. than that of Queensland and more than double the decline in older non-growth areas and centres. Australian growth of 4.83 per cent according to Disruption from construction works are likely to Notwithstanding the above, we are yet to witness www.mygc.com.au. impact the CBD in particular. any evidence suggesting downward pressure on capital values on the Gold Coast. There remains Toowoomba COMMERCIAL Gold Coast a lack of retail investment stock being taken to 2018 saw a high level of activity in the Toowoomba The retail market on the Gold Coast has been the market which is keeping supply and demand retail market with completion of QIC’s Grand holding a steady course over the past six months. metrics in check. Selling Central Shopping Centre redevelopment and a As we sail into early 2019, the coast appears clear, agents report that number of smaller retail developments, including: however we are on the lookout for submerged buyers are becoming rocks which may steer us off course. more discerning and less ◗◗ The Intersection located on the corner of rushed in their purchase Ruthven and Alderley Streets in Kearneys Spring It’s no secret that the local commercial property decisions, however are with a mix of tenants, including Subway, Café 63, market has experienced notable increases in still present and active in Oporto, Burger Urge and Baskin-Robbins. The activity and price levels over recent years. This the marketplace. Subway and Café 63 tenancies provide drive- strong market sentiment was largely fuelled by through facilities. the prevailing low interest rate environment and From a valuation 11.1% availability of credit. The number of investors perspective, the biggest spike in visitor ◗◗ Coles Express located on the corner of Ruthven actively seeking retail property on the Gold risk we foresee is rent spending, from last and Alderley Streets in Kearneys Spring. This Coast was on the rise and the number of quality sustainability. With a financial year, with a project included the redevelopment of a Shell investment properties was limited. The combined relatively large influx of $1.3 billion benefit service station and two food tenancies. The effect of these factors was a sharpening of retail accommodation larger tenancy has a drive-through facility and is to the Gold Coast investment yields across the board. across the Gold leased to Pump Café.
13 completion in early 2019. The redevelopment will Month in Review include a mix of retail and office tenancies, with February 2019 commitments from a café and legal firm in place. ◗◗ A $20 million refurbishment of the Wilsonton Shopping Centre following its sale for $50 million during 2018. While the above suggests a high level of leasing activity for the Toowoomba retail sector, competition for tenants is likely to require increased use of incentives to attract tenants into the new floorspaces. This is expected to have a negative effect on older premises, particularly in the CBD. The end result should see rentals remain stable throughout 2019 with a slight uplift in vacancy rates for older, dated premises. A long- term CBD furniture retailer, Amart Furniture, has recently relocated to a suburban bulky goods complex, the former Masters Home Improvement site redeveloped by Home Consortium, creating a large vacant CBD floorspace with no redevelopment Eastside Village, Toowoomba Source: eastvilletoowoomba.com.au plans announced at the time of writing. COMMERCIAL The low interest rates should result in continued ◗◗ Eastside Village is located on the corner of anchored by national café tenancies with drive- high investor demand for retail properties with Herries and Cohoe Streets in East Toowoomba. through facilities and a child care centre currently strong lease profiles, however the lack of supply of The centre is anchored by McDonald’s and KFC nearing completion. quality, fully leased properties will limit the number with other tenants including Café 63, Bel Cibo ◗◗ Development of the Gladstone Hotel into a of investment sales with net yields expected to Italian and the Burrito Bar. five-storey accommodation and lifestyle facility remain firm. This trend is expected to continue in 2019 with a with 104 motel rooms, retail shopfronts and a beer number of retail developments in various stages of garden at a cost of $20 million. Demolition has Townsville the development process. These include: been completed, development approval issued and As we head into 2019, the year ahead for the retail construction is due to commence early in 2019. sector is likely to remain at status quo with interest ◗◗ A new car wash in James Street on the CBD underpinned by national investors for property fringe. The car wash uses the latest automatic ◗◗ Continued development of the Walton Stores offering strong investment returns with long term drive-through wash tunnel and will include a small project with the popular Mexican chain Zambero leases or national tenants, whilst activity from café tenancy and a digital sign board. recently announcing plans to open an outlet in local buyers and within secondary stock is likely to the complex during 2019. ◗◗ Several developments on Anzac Avenue in the remain flat. suburb of Harristown. These include two food ◗◗ Redevelopment of the 103-year-old Longs There is positive sentiment in the market on the based centres in close proximity to each other Quarter building in the Toowoomba CBD due for back of major projects underway including the
14 North Queensland Stadium, Haughton Pipeline addition of a ten-screen cinema operated by Event Month in Review duplication and the port channel widening along Cinemas, a new restaurant precinct as well as February 2019 with recently announced projects including the extensive renovations to the existing centre and $300 million Sun Metal zinc refinery expansion increased car parking. and improving confidence in the mining sector, These expansions to the shopping centre offering however to date the reaction of the market to on the Sunshine Coast have been driven by these developments has been relatively subdued, population growth to the area from both local and although is gaining traction, albeit at a very slow interstate occupants, with a forecast of circa 2.5% pace. annual growth or an increase of 8,300 people per Fairfield Shopping Centre is currently undergoing year. Tourism has also seen a steady increase its Stage 3 expansion at a reported cost of throughout the region over the past three years The $400 million redevelopment of Sunshine Plaza will see the centre expand $32 million, which will be anchored by a Coles from 73,000 square metres to over 107,000 square meters, making it the from both Australian and overseas visitors. supermarket and is expected to be completed largest retail centre north of Brisbane. Source: sunshineplaza.com Tourist centres such during 2019. Other proposed retail projects heading as Hastings Street and into 2019 include a new retail shopping centre extension and refurbishment of Kawana Shopping the general Noosa proposed to be constructed in Rasmussen to be World. region, Maroochydore built over two stages. The $400 million redevelopment of Sunshine Plaza and Coolum Beach Over the coming year, we are likely to see national will see the centre expand from 73,000 square are experiencing investors remain interested in the market given the metres to over 107,000 square metres, making limited vacancies, attractive yield spread in regional areas relative to it the largest retail centre north of Brisbane. The with Mooloolaba still their home locations. The leasing market is likely centre will comprise new national and international struggling with rental 2.5% COMMERCIAL to continue to demonstrate high levels of leasing tenants including David Jones department store, affordability for local forecast of annual incentives as there remains an oversupply of retail Big W, H&M and over 100 new specialty stores. retailing tenants growth or an space available relative to current levels of demand The first stage included the refurbishment of the and uncertainty increase of 8,300 with online shopping continuing to place pressure existing Myer department store and 40 speciality surrounding proposed people per year to on mainstream retail. stores which opened in late 2018. The remainder is developments. These scheduled to be completed prior to Easter 2019. trends are likely to the Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast continue through 2019. Stockland Birtinya comprises a new 10,348 square Throughout 2018, the retail market on the Sunshine metre shopping centre which commenced trade Secondary and service township retails strips have Coast generally reflected the overall retail markets in the first week of 2019. The centre is located in also improved and are likely to continue to improve of greater south-east Queensland. We have seen close proximity to the Sunshine Coast University during 2019. Areas such as Montville, Maleny, strong yield compression for national tenant Hospital and Stockland’s residential communities Eumundi and Palmwoods have seen a drop in overall holdings appealing to a larger regional style market of Oceanside and Bokarina Beach. The centre vacancy levels over the past twelve to 24 months. over the past three years. comprises Coles, Aldi and 40 speciality stores with The Bulcock Street, Caloundra streetscape works Retail confidence will continue to strengthen within fresh food and experience-driven retailing being the are in the final stage and are due for completion the Sunshine Coast, reflected in developments such main focus. in 2019. The streetscape works were undertaken as the ongoing Sunshine Plaza redevelopment, the Kawana Shopping World’s retail and carpark by the Sunshine Coast Council, with the view to new Stockland Birtinya shopping centre and the expansion was completed in late 2018 with the enhancing the look and experience of the area,
15 improving safety and increasing foot traffic. The Target Country late last year. Despite this, there Month in Review works undertaken have affected some retail trade has been some recent commentary in the press February 2019 along the strip which is still seeing higher overall that the retail outlook for 2019 is positive, which is a vacancy rates than other similar areas. nice change on the back of the declining market in recent years for the Gladstone property market. Low interest rates coupled with a weak exchange rate have encouraged increased interstate and Whilst we do not forecast any substantial local travel which has seen the tourism localities changes to the retail market, we are hopeful benefit over the past twelve to 24 months. Any that the improvements we are seeing in the changes in the economy could have a greater effect residential market will have a flow on effect in on these tourism-driven areas moving forward. the retail market, with improved sentiment and Due to this, local retailing strips that service larger some renewed confidence. There are still some residential localities are seen as less volatile, with Former Bunnings site on Yaamba Road sold for $9.9M and it will be a site to substantial vacancies within retail shopping centres the focus on refurbishment of these centres and watch over the next 12 months. Source: .commercialrealestate.com.au and it will take some time for these to be absorbed. increasing the fresh food offering. As a result, we do not anticipate that there will be track with a new contractor) and redevelopment of any notable rental growth, as rental affordability is The Sunshine Coast has seen strong yield the ex-Masonic Club on William Street. This site was still key for local businesses. Additionally, incentives compression over the past twelve to 24 months purchased in 2018 by a local developer and it was are also likely to play a role in new retail lease and moving forward into 2019, we anticipate a more recently reported that the development will involve negotiations until such time as vacancies begin to stable market with yields stabilising. renovation of the existing improvements to a cafe / tighten and supply reduces. restaurant and accommodation. Rockhampton Wide Bay 2019 is likely to continue at much the same pace as The former Bunnings site on Yaamba Road sold The retail sector within the Wide Bay has COMMERCIAL 2018 in the retail sector, however we are hopeful late last year and it will be a site to watch over the demonstrated a consistent trend over the past few that new projects on the horizon and a general next twelve months. The property was purchased years in terms of rental levels, yields and vacancies. increase in market sentiment will have a positive for $9.9 million and comprises a substantial area of The sector has continued to attract interstate flow on effect later in the year. vacant retail warehouse accommodation. Plans for investors with relatively high yields compared to the site are as yet unknown to us. There are infrastructure and defence projects in major southern localities. the region that have either commenced or are As retail market conditions are still considered in the pipeline that will be creating employment to be relatively flat, we do not anticipate any Bundaberg opportunities for locals and increasing market substantial rental growth, as rental affordability is The Bundaberg retail sector can be divided into confidence. These are projects such as Clarke Creek still key for retail tenants. There are still substantial three main precincts, being the Central Business wind farm, Rookwood Weir, Defence projects at vacancies within secondary retail centres and District (CBD), Kensington bulky goods precinct and Shoalwater Bay, Main Roads projects and upgrades centres where asking rentals are too high and until the sub-regional shopping centres. to the Capricornia Correctional Centre to name a the vacancies tighten there is unlikely to be any The Bundaberg CBD is a relatively vibrant CBD few. Some projects are still awaiting the green light, significant growth. compared to other major regional localities across however are increasing optimism in the market. Gladstone Queensland. A recent significant sale in the CBD Retail developments planned for the year include is of the building formerly occupied by Best The retail market in Gladstone definitely took a the completion of the Aldi supermarket (after a and Less, purchased for $3 million by a national blow with the announcement of the closure of the recent announcement that the project is back on pharmacy business intending to owner-occupy the
16 property. Vacancies new retailers throughout 2018. These centres are yield) indicate that there is some demand for retail Month in Review within the Bundaberg expected to maintain their heavy dominance of the properties that are well located and occupied by a February 2019 CBD are relatively low, local retail sector over the foreseeable future. nationally branded tenant. Generally, gross rental particularly within levels sit between $170 and $200 per square metre the CBD’s heart along Hervey Bay within the Maryborough CBD. Bourbong Street, To some extent, Hervey Bay has a less Our forecast for the 2019 retail sector in between Barolin Street distinguishable retail sector. The main retail locality $170 Maryborough is a relatively low rate of sale and and Targo Street. is around the Stockland Hervey Bay shopping limited gross rental growth potential. The higher In 2019, we would to $200 centre fronting Boat Harbour Drive, extending local yields being achieved may attract some anticipate a consistent north along Main Street in Pialba. Other retail per sqm gross interstate investors. year for the Bundaberg rents for modern locations are scattered throughout Hervey Bay CBD. retail buildings in and include a number of smaller neighbourhood Mackay shopping centres. The Kensington Park Bundaberg We believe there has been a positive change in Estate has established Retail vacancies within Hervey Bay have market sentiment in the retail property sector itself as a prominent proven to be somewhat stubborn, however are in Mackay due to ongoing economic recovery, location for bulky goods retail within Bundaberg slowly decreasing. Rental rates can vary quite extensive government infrastructure works, with a number of large retail brands situated within significantly depending on the location, size and increased employment and, as a consequence, local the precinct. We have seen a reasonable level quality of the tenancy. In general terms, retail population growth. of demand from national retailers to be located yields can sit between 7.5 per cent for a modern In recent months, large bulky goods tenancies within this precinct, with a new complex set to host building with a good quality tenant on a long-term which were vacant for years through the Fantastic Furniture currently under construction lease to nine per cent for a lower quality or older economic downturn are now leased. A notable and scheduled to finish early in 2019. building with a lesser quality tenant with low COMMERCIAL example is the former Sam’s Warehouse tenancy quality lease covenants. Investor demand for modern retail buildings with in Greenfields retail precinct at Mount Pleasant, nationally branded tenants on long term leases Our forecast for the Hervey Bay retail sector in where a 742 square metre section was leased to remains strong, with yields for properties of this 2019 is a low rate of sale and limited gross rental Ambiance Indoor Outdoor Furniture in September calibre remaining quite low in the order of 7.25 to growth potential. The higher local yields being and a 1,675 square metre tenancy was leased to 7.75 per cent. We would expect retail yields for achieved may attract some interstate investors. Silly Solly’s discount warehouse in October last properties with these attributes to remain low over year. the short term, however would be susceptible to Maryborough Rental rates are approximately 25 per cent lower an increase should interest rates rise. Gross rents The retail sector in Maryborough is heavily than the 2012 peak and appear affordable enough within this precinct typically fall between $170 and dominated by the sub-regional shopping centre, to allow tenants to successfully trade as the $200 per square metre depending on the size and Station Square. Other prominent retail locations in economic recovery continues and retail activity quality of the tenancy. Maryborough appear to surround Station Square improves. shopping centre along Alice Street and within the The retail sector in Bundaberg is also heavily Maryborough CBD along Adelaide Street. There has been limited retail leasing activity and dominated by the two sub-regional shopping limited enquiry around the city centre. The Dome centres (Stockland Bundaberg and Hinkler Vacancies within the Maryborough CBD remain Arcade in Victoria Street, originally established as Central). Vacancies within these centres appear relatively high, however, the recent sale of 179 a retail complex, had several tenancies available for to be relatively low, with both centres attracting Adelaide Street at $1.45 million (circa 8.5 per cent lease which have now been partially let to medical
17 This has been the most active period of commercial sales Month in Review February 2019 activity in Mackay for many years. and other service-based tenants. Enquiry from ◗◗ 105 - 109 Victoria Street - The former retail tenants has been slow. Similarly, a large Centrepoint Shopping Centre which has been tenancy on the ground floor of the former Suncorp substantially converted to a nightclub complex Building in Victoria which was advertised for was sold by receivers at $3 million in September. retail use has been leased to a community service ◗◗ 74 Wood Street - Mackay Central (Coffee Club provider. and Coco Cubano) was sold by receivers at There is very little to report in terms of retail auction under the hammer for $2.65 million in sales activity. We believe that there would be December 2018. strong demand for well anchored shopping ◗◗ 22-30 Wood Street - A large, modern, double- centres and neighbourhood shopping centres if storey office building leased to State Government any such investments were available for sale in tenants reportedly sold at $3.5 million in the Mackay region. December 2018. Moving off topic from the retail sector, we could ◗◗ 8 - 10 Sydney Street and 21 Sydney Street - not let this edition of the Month in Review go The Mackay Spare Parts building is reported to past without commenting on the large number of be under unconditional contract dated November commercial properties which have sold in Mackay 2018 at an undisclosed price and awaiting city since September last year. settlement. This is another receivers sale. COMMERCIAL These are summarised as follows: ◗◗ Corner Sydney Street and Victoria Street - The ◗◗ 11 Peel Street - The former McGinns Hardware Palace Hotel is reported to be under contract at property sold at $2.85 million in September. an undisclosed price. This has been the most active period of commercial sales activity in Mackay for many years. These transactions indicate that the time is right to take advantage of the low point in the market cycle. With commercial listings now being readily absorbed and several receivership sales now completed, we believe that commercial value levels have now reached a cyclical low point and should begin to follow the moderate increase in values which have been observed in the Mackay residential market over the past twelve months.
74 Wood Street, Mackay Central Source: ealcommercial.com.au
18 Month in Review Northern Territory February 2019
Darwin and Alice Springs The calendar year 2019 promises to be challenging for all property markets across the Northern Territory and especially in Darwin. The release of an interim report into the NT Government’s finances has found that on current expenditure trends, the Territory’s net debt will increase from $3 billion to $35.7 billion by 2030. This is partly attributable to a decline in the Territory’s GST revenue share by $500 million per annum. The NT Government will need to make some tough expenditure decisions Darwin cruise terminal complex Source: www.cruisemapper.com and this will have an impact on all aspects of the economy, including the property sector. for Darwin is in full The retail sector in Darwin is already experiencing swing, with 19 arrivals difficult times due to population decline. A number scheduled for the of well-established local businesses have closed first quarter of 2019.
$35.7 COMMERCIAL over the past twelve months and unless trading These visitors do conditions improve, it is inevitable that others will swell the numbers in BILLION join them. The recent closure of Darwin’s CBD the Mall when a ship The Territory’s cinema complex is symptomatic of retail economic is in, creating retail net debt will conditions, especially in the CBD. opportunities for local increase to traders. The NT Government is intent on pushing ahead by 2030 with its Derelict and Vacant Property Levy which Although the current will be introduced in July 2019. This levy will be economic environment applied to CBD property which is vacant land or has is weak, it does open up opportunities to investors. a building vacancy in excess of 50 per cent. The aim We are aware of a significant modern retail of this levy is to encourage owners to activate their investment property in Alice Springs with a good properties to create a more vibrant CBD. lease profile which has recently sold for a yield in excess of 9.5 per cent. On a more positive note, the cruise ship season
The NT Government will need to make some tough expenditure decisions and this will have an impact on all aspects of the economy, including the property sector.
19 Month in Review Western Australia February 2019
Perth often transact at a much higher yield reflecting the The retail property market in Perth continues to greater tenancy risk. face challenging conditions. Demand for retail In defiance of the above however, sites in the space remains hampered by restrained consumer aforementioned high street locations remain keenly spending coinciding with the state’s sluggish sought after despite the level of tenancy risk, which economic performance. Additionally, online retail is a function of the scarcity of sites offered to the spending continues to grow rapidly and apply market in these locations and the high underlying further pressure on the Perth retail market. Overall, land value. Yields for similar sites below 5.5 per despite some renewed optimism in the resource cent are not uncommon. sector with the announcement of a raft of new projects, confidence in general remains depressed. In respect to investment grade retail transactions, Westfield Carousel Source: Wikipedia there were a number of such sales throughout The above has translated (generally speaking) 2018 within the Perth metropolitan area with all to rental rates for retail premises experiencing a largely driven by the low prevailing cost of funds were hotly contested, attracting offers between downward trend over the past twelve months with in the current debt finance market and despite five and 6.25 per cent. Interestingly, the yield incentives in the form of net rent-free periods and the general malaise impacting the wider Western differential between Coles or Woolworths anchored fit-out contributions prevalent. Australian economy including softening rentals centres and those anchored by IGA or Metcash (or COMMERCIAL and an increasing number of business failures and Our team continues to field enquiries from tenants even Aldi) remains pronounced and in the order of receiverships. struggling to meet rental payments by virtue of 0.75 to 1.25 per cent. lease agreements negotiated in more buoyant However, there are a certain number of key metrics Despite the conditions described above, times. Landlords are being faced with the option of that informed investors are considering relating to considerable expansions are planned for re-negotiating lease terms to maintain occupancy length of remaining lease term (i.e. WALE), financial institutional-owned major regional and sub- or alternatively, risk extended periods of vacancy. strength of the tenants and locational attributes, as regional shopping centres within Western These conditions are more prevalent in secondary investors take advantage of the spread between the Australia following the removal of the cap and suburban strip locations, although it appears low cost of debt and large format retail investment on maximum retail floor space and the state that prime CBD mall and high street locations yields. Where all or a majority of these metrics are government’s push to create activity centres. (Oxford Street, Leederville; Beaufort Street, Mount satisfied, very tight yields are being achieved in Lawley; and Bay View Terrace, Claremont) are now the current market. Assets which do not possess Expansions of Westfield Carousel, Garden City, beginning to experience a similar situation with these key criteria are however less sought after and Karrinyup, Westfield Innaloo, Midland Gate vacancies beginning to appear and not being as readily leased as perhaps twelve to 24 months ago. Our team continue to field inquiries from tenants struggling to Investment grade retail property (neighbourhood meet rental payments by virtue of lease agreements negotiated shopping centres for example) remains a highly sought-after asset. Yield compression is evident, in more buoyant times.
20 and Ellenbrook Central are either underway or Month in Review proposed in the short to medium term. February 2019 These expansion projects will have a focus on delivering a better retail experience for shoppers with the creation of food hubs, entertainment options (such as cinemas), health care and in some cases, residential apartments. As a result, some envisage that these centres will become community centres as opposed to traditional shopping centres. It is also worth noting the success associated with the opening of the DFO within the Perth Airport grounds in October 2018 which to date has been very popular with consumers largely due to the discount spending offered by retailers. The centre, which comprises 113 retailers, opened fully leased and provides retail shoppers with a full experience including dining precinct, children’s playground and extensive parking (albeit paid). It will be interesting to see if its popularity can be maintained in the short term.
In summary, Herron Todd White sees the existing COMMERCIAL malaise in retail market conditions continuing in at least the short term as rental values come under increased pressure and vacancy levels and tenant delinquency increase. Opportunity does however exist for investors with an increased risk appetite to acquire some of those less sought-after assets in the market place at yield premiums, or assets which would benefit from repositioning or capital expenditure.
21 Month in Review Australian Capital Territory February 2019
Canberra In 2019, the Canberra retail market will witness both the completion of new and the reinvigoration of existing retail precincts. Retail sale statistics issued in November by the ABS indicate growth of 1.6 per cent (above the national average) in seasonally adjusted terms for the nation’s capital. The trend is positive overall and can be in part attributed to generally strong employment, improved consumer confidence and consistent population growth (2.2 per cent). The Braddon retail district is now well and truly established, with only a handful of newly completed ground floor units remaining available. The expansion of the Fyshwick Fresh Food Markets Fyshwick Fresh Food Markets Source: stewartarchitecture.com.au (known as the Niche Markets) has been received COMMERCIAL well, adding 40 retail tenants into the complex. experienced higher vacancy levels for both Notable major additions to the market in 2019 residential and commercial space, have begun to include the completion of Kambri located at the strengthen and will continue to do so after the Australian National University. This brings 45 completion of stage one. additional retail tenants to the area, with only The only downside we see on the immediate ten per cent remaining un-leased ahead of the horizon is the follow-on effect on existing retail February 2019 opening. Another precinct which stock from the introduction of the aforementioned will be delivered in 2019 is DKSN in Dickson. The retail precincts. Demand for non-central, ageing first stage of DKSN will serve as a mixed-use stock, especially those in smaller local shopping precinct bringing 300 apartments, pre-committed centres that have already struggled with declining government office space and 40 retail and patronage, will likely see a rise in vacancy hospitality units to the market. throughout 2019. With the first stage of the Canberra light rail moving towards completion, we have seen an increase in interest in retail offerings in close proximity to the rail stops. Areas such as Flemington Road, which in the past have
22 Residential February 2019 Month in Review National Property Clock: Houses February 2019 Entries coloured orange indicate positional change from last month.
Gippsland Lismore Mid North Coast
Albury Hobart PEAK OF Bendigo Gold Coast Brisbane Sunshine Coast MARKET Central Coast South East NSW Echuca Coffs Harbour Approaching Starting to Peak of Market Decline
Adelaide Dubbo Adelaide Hills Emerald Ballarat Iron Triangle DECLINING Illawarra South West WA RESIDENTIAL Barossa Valley Launceston RISING Melbourne Sydney Bathurst Mildura MARKET MARKET Newcastle Burnie-Devonport Mount Gambier Canberra Tamworth
Start of Approaching Recovery Bottom of Market
Cairns Ipswich BOTTOM OF Gladstone Mackay MARKET Hervey Bay Townsville
Alice Springs Perth Bundaberg Rockhampton
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Darwin Toowoomba This report is not intended to be comprehensive or render advice and neither Herron Todd White nor any persons involved in the preparation of this report accept any form of liability for its contents.
24 Month in Review National Property Clock: Units February 2019 Entries coloured blue indicate positional change from last month.
Lismore Mid North Coast
PEAK OF Albury Hobart MARKET Bendigo Gold Coast Echuca Sunshine Coast Central Coast South East NSW Approaching Starting to Coffs Harbour Peak of Market Decline
Canberra Perth
Ballarat Launceston RESIDENTIAL Bathurst Mount Gambier RISING DECLINING Illawarra South West WA Burnie-Devonport Tamworth MARKET MARKET Melbourne Sydney Dubbo Newcastle
Start of Approaching Adelaide Hervey Bay Recovery Bottom of Market Brisbane Cairns Ipswich Emerald Mildura BOTTOM OF Gippsland Townsville MARKET Gladstone
Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Mackay
Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Barossa Valley Rockhampton This report is not intended to be comprehensive or render advice and neither Bundaberg Toowoomba Herron Todd White nor any persons involved in the preparation of this report Darwin accept any form of liability for its contents.
25 Month in Review New South Wales February 2019
Overview and federal elections, the lower end of the market could be one of the We’ve come off a few years of changing market and as the market better performers. conditions in Australia, particularly given the adjusts to new lending The fallout from the Opal Tower in Sydney Olympic entrenched downturn in Sydney and Melbourne. requirements in the Park is likely to have a flow on effect on sales of any wake of the royal There will be plenty of significant events in 2019 off the plan units in Sydney, with greater concern commission. This is that will affect property, but studying markets on a over build quality adding to existing concerns of on the assumption nuanced and localised level is essential to success. oversupply and values falling below contract prices. that other economic Certain suburbs have a significant number of units Please enjoy our views of real estate across the indicators such 8.9% due for completion in 2019 which could have a nation in the coming year. as interest rates, dwelling values significant impact on prices and rents for units in unemployment rates, dropped over the these suburbs. Sydney and local and global year in Sydney Most property professionals acknowledged that economies remain according to The prestige end of the market, particularly we were heading into a softening Sydney market steady. for properties above $5 million in established CoreLogic in 2018. The most surprising aspect however, was prestige suburbs, performed the strongest in In December, APRA the sheer lack of activity from a purchasing and 2018, with buyers in this market less affected removed the investor refinancing perspective. This led to a softening in by tightening credit availability. We expect this RESIDENTIAL lending caps introduced in 2017. We are not the market above predicted levels, with dwelling market to continue to be one of the strongest expecting this to have much of an impact on the values dropping by 8.9 per cent over the year in 2019, however this may still result in a slight number of investors entering the market given the according to CoreLogic. The other surprising fall in prices compared to 2018. However, any current environment of falling prices and falling aspect was that most of the other economic instability in equity markets, along with local and rents, along with potential changes to negative indicators were relatively strong and would global economies, could have a significant impact gearing and capital gains tax proposed by the usually point to a steady residential market. federal opposition should they win this year’s This downturn appears to have been strongly federal election. led by negative market sentiment and tightening credit availability as a result of the banking royal Lack of investors in the market will continue to commission, along with previous APRA regulation be good news for first home buyers who will face changes. less competition in their price bracket. As a result, The big question as we head into 2019 is how long will the current downturn last? We expect the The big question as we head market will continue to be slow, with value levels into 2019 is how long will the continuing to fall in most locations, but generally the market should begin to plateau during the current downturn last? second half of this year after the upcoming state Sydney’s North West rail link Source: Transport NSW
26 Financial Crisis. Financial Global the during we saw as market, this on project has a positive impact on prices. on impact apositive has project this if to see Dundas, Telopea and Carlingford, as such line, the along of suburbs values the on eye an keeping be also We will CBD. Parramatta the via to Westmead Carlingford from access allow will This beginning. just is project rail light Parramatta the completed, is Link Rail West North the as theme, infrastructure the with Continuing market. weakening a in trend the buck will suburbs these if to see looking we are year this so opens, of infrastructure piece a when of prices strengthening asecond often is there Historically respectively. 2015 and 2014 2013, for growth cent per 31.4 and 19.3 13.5, registering growth, price median digit of double years back and construction began. Cherrybrook saw back to announced was project the when growth average above saw stations new the surround that Hill Rouse and Hill Castle Cherrybrook, as such Suburbs the need to drive on congested motorways. eliminating District, Business to Central the on then and to Chatswood of Sydney’s north-west residents for access rapid provide will link rail This 2019. of quarter first the in completion for earmarked is Sydney Link the Rail Metro north-west, the In contract. building the and land the of cost combined the below in come valuations completion of on anumber to see begun just cost? We have only replacement below to sell begin areas new these in dwellings completed of resales will packages, land and house and land of vacant supply more with to weaken continues market the As subdivisions. new surrounding and Leppington Austral, include west south- the in year this watching worth Suburbs Sydney Western their respective sectors of the market. market. of the sectors respective their ready, outperforming move–in completely are that products as well as markets, downsizer and buyer home to first the appeal that products seeing are We area. the within suburbs other to outperform Manly, Freshwater Vale) (such as Mona suburbs and blue-chip traditional we expect beaches, the On benefits? the realise to afew take years market the will or completion of its anticipation in aboost see they Will com.au). (realestate. Colah Mount for million $1.07 and Berowra for million $1.16 are values house median Currently CBD. into the ride asmoother allowing infrastructure, this from benefit will they given eye an on keeping worth are Colah Mount and Berowra as such suburbs affordable Relatively 2020. in completed to be slated is and Road Hills M1 underneath the forever congested Pennant the and M2 the connecting of infrastructure, The North Connex tunnel is a much-needed piece Northern Sydney medium term. to short the in impacted be will growth price supply, large the given Regardless, arisk. high as considered not is such as and strong are area this in fundamentals the number,we believe alarger is this Whilst by 2020. units potential of 5,996 total a and 2019 in built to be units 2,525 potentially has which to Parramatta compared is This years. coming way the in its on is same of the more that investors unit potential to awarning as serves and area the for supply pipeline potential the shows this commence, will development every not (CoreLogic). Whilst years two next the in supply potential in increase 128.1% a creating by 2020, units of 3,945 atotal and 2019 in units 1,627 for potential the has which Blacktown eye an on keeping be we will side, supply the On evacuation at Powder Works Road as a key issue. a key as issue. Road Works Powder at evacuation emergency an during bottle-neck a potential identifying risk, bushfire extreme outlined precinct residential Ingleside proposed review of the independent an after board to drawing the back gone has Environment and of Planning Department The Ingleside. is of interest area Another opportunity and value. is there renovation, of the cost the than greater is two the between gap the If product. renovated to asimilar them compare and for sell area your in houses un-renovated what at Look themselves. it renovating resources and time the have to spend and house older an buy than mortgage larger havea and product afinished on money extra to prefer spend much would Buyers yourself. renovations the doing and afixer-upper buying in DIY, value definite is of some there afraid aren’t and haveresources you if the trend, same the On the wider area being overdeveloped? future? the in Is point some at property the affect directly will that any developments Are there value. affect might that issues any future and aspect or view product, of the quality the consider also but key, always is Location product. asecondary buying of mindful be boxes and the all ticks property the sure make locations; these in buying when prudent being recommend We would ago. years two more cent per 15 them cost have reasonably would that aproperty purchase can buyers Astute future. the in market the of under-performing risk greater also but locations, these in value greater is There to mind. coming Narraweena Why and Dee as such areas with oversupply, and restrictions lending affordability, housing are market Beaches Northern the affecting issues largest The period. 2018 the that have experienced the strongest decline over those also are affordable most currently areas The Month in Review in Month February 2019 27
RESIDENTIAL these issues. these to remediate Road) Works Powder or Vale Road to (such as Mona upgrades any infrastructure track) (and fast plan they if to see interesting be also will It area. the in developers and owners land current on impact have asignificant will changes The density. and scale smaller to amuch revised being is plan the and scrapped been has plan draft The value is falling well short of the purchase price paid paid price purchase of the short well falling is value current the where of units number alarge seeing We already 2019. are in completion for due of units number alarge with Kirrawee and Miranda in units of new oversupply an for potential astrong is There $800,000. below sales house of recent number a with buyers, home first for affordable more becoming are Heathcote and Engadine as such suburbs end, other the at while downsizers, from demand to increasing the cater that those particularly well, to perform continue Premium and high-quality properties will occupancy and townhouse developments. dual for of enquiries levels dropping receiving are they advise meet we builders Many profitable. less developments these making prices sale duplex construction loans along with falling completed duplex on lending to stricter due value in reductions significant sites have experienced Duplex quickly. as fallen not have prices where to areas compared areas these trough, as buyers to begin see increased value in to their closer may be areas these that possible is George) over the year according to CoreLogic. It St and Bankstown (which encompasses south-west inner the in percent 10.5 and Shire Sutherland the in cent per 10.9 dropping 2018, in values dwelling in drops largest of the some experienced south The Southern Suburbs to other areas of Sydney, with buyers still attracted of Sydney, attracted areas still to other buyers with compared 2018 during prices median in decreases These areas only experienced relatively small Eastern Suburbs and City Inner downward pressure on rental prices. rental on pressure downward place will which suburbs these in properties rental of oversupply of an likelihood ahigh also is There as purchasers to struggle complete settlement. market the hitting units of these number increasing an in to result likely is This ago. years three or two CBD and South East Light Rail Map Map Rail Light East South and CBD This will change the face of the city. provided the light rail gets within reach of completion. The CBD will bean interesting market to watch in 2019, Source: Transport NSW NSW Transport Source: Botany, Ultimo and Forest Lodge. and Botany, Ultimo Mascot, Rosebery, Waterloo, as such suburbs in caution with treated be should areas secondary and supplied highly in stock investor Homogenous demand as the line nears completion. Kensington Kingsford and may see increased including Hills, Centennial Surry Randwick, Park, line Rail Light East South the along Suburbs deposit. cent have you per to a20 30 provided - home or investment attractive an it makes CBD, Town China the Station, and Central institutions, educational to popular proximity close in suburb, This depleted. largely is area the in pipeline supply the therefore and settled just has Wonderland, as Park precinct, however the final complex, known Central the around volumes supply to high due lenders by many blacklisted been has area This of Sydney. fringe city the on Chippendale as such suburbs, bride the never but bridesmaid, to be appear do areas some ago, months to 18 compared affordable relatively are places most Whilst centre. city refresh the further will area Quay Circular and precinct Barangaroo the around developments and (hopefully) decreased congestion. Moreover, normal, as to trade able cafes and businesses with George Street becoming more user friendly, city, face of the the change will This completion. of reach within gets rail light the provided 2019, to watch market in interesting an be will CBD The highly regarded schools. and beaches harbour, to CBD, the proximity by the
Month in Review in Month February 2019 28
RESIDENTIAL million, according to PriceFinder. These suburbs $10 above sales 15 had Hill Bellevue while 2018, in million $10 above recorded sales 18 had Vaucluse year. breaking record aheated, such to see expect don’t certainly and 2019 in to stabilise market this expect We would the face of decreased overseas buyer demand. even in 2018, in times multiple broken records suburb saw market shore north lower The in values. decline significant no but the year when we started to see some stabilisation, late in until up buoyancy continued experiencing of 2018, majority the for trend the bucked markets These 2019. throughout to stabilise to continue Sydney inner and suburbs eastern the within and Shore Lower North the on (above million) $5 sector prestige the expect we would speaking, Generally 2019. in again well up hold will market prestige the that expectations are there suburbs, prestige many in fall records suburb saw which 2018 strong of arelatively back the On Prestige market. unit new oversupplied currently of the uptake the in increase an cause could This properties. built newly on remain will gearing negative that outlines policy current Labor’s as particularly others, than more areas Labor wins the federal election could impact these if legislation gearing to negative amendments Given the higher proportion of investors, proposed pricing. lower and competition less to leading shrink, pools buyer potential their seeing therefore are and restrictions lending increased by significantly impacted have been properties title company or metres square 50 under areas living with those as such by lenders caution more with treated are that properties Furthermore, element of excitement, new goals, moving on from from on moving goals, new of excitement, element year, of anew an always is arrival there the With Lismore Australian Financial Review). Financial Australian (source: yet confirmed. to has be this although million, $30 for to sell tipped is penthouse king the that reported been has It late 2019. in completed tower. residential to set be is Sydney’s It tallest as marketed Street and Pitt Street and Bathurst Greenland Centre, positioned on the corner of the is Sydney the CBD within south Further to market. the coming apartments level of prestige supply the in increase alarge and retail restaurants, hotel, aluxury facilities, wharf ferry improved greatly with area the to revitalise expected is Quay of Circular transformation billion $5 reported The surrounds. and precinct Quay Circular the projects under construction or earmarked for year, this high-scale one several with interesting an be will market Sydney prestige inner The 2019. in again well perform should and upgrade are particularly popular amongst locals looking to Centre Greenland within penthouse of impression Artist’s to previous years. credit for construction loans is proving to be difficult compared Discussions with builders and agents indicate that obtaining Source: AFR AFR Source: the Lismore area up to this point. Prices for level level for Prices to point. up this area Lismore the in steady been has land vacant for market The pressure. price downward to experience likely more are issues social perceived with Goonellabah within areas certain and Lismore, south and north as such locations affected flood areas, sector, this secondary however in affordability, relative to its due resilient to remain expected is $400,000 under properties for market The sale. a to secure likely discounting some with periods, extended for market the on be will properties that likely is It choice. greater with purchasers provide will restrictions to credit due purchasers fewer with eligible combined stock Increased to increase. starting was supply that indicated agents with discussions Towards of 2018, end the 2019. goes she as -asteady well as unlikely falls significant but unlikely increases price with ground hold will it that is market Lismore Based on these factors, the expectation for the country. of the areas other affecting drought crippling of the to worst the avoid managed has area Lismore the state, of the districts sector. Compared to the southern and western agricultural arobust and university hospital, upgraded the including drivers employment strong some from to benefit fortunate is and area affordable arelatively remains Lismore different. no is market Lismore the in estate real Residential the prospect of opportunity ahead. and year previous the in experienced challenges
Month in Review in Month February 2019 29
RESIDENTIAL sloping blocks. on those especially packages, land and house sell to land have secured who builders from purchases good some for potential the and power bargaining increased with to build looking those to provide likely is competition This available. work reduced the to secure compete builders major the as costs may place downward pressure on construction that thispossibility in credit availability reduction a is There years. previous to compared difficult be obtaining credit for construction loans is proving to that indicate agents and builders with Discussions values. 2018 on based pressure downward some may experience Hill Girrards soften, markets metropolitan these As Sydney purchasers. and Brisbane from interest with 2018, in area strong a was cottages, period its with Hill, Girrards to university. the located conveniently properties do as owner-occupiers, and investors with to prove popular continue hospital to the proximity close in Properties area. Lismore in the build infrastructure significant recent The expanded Lismore Base Hospital is the most are likely.periods selling longer and area the in purchasers potential fewer are there as pressure downward some to have likely are of $650,000 north Properties firm. to hold likely are this, on typically provide good value for money and, based range market this in however properties periods, marketing longer to experience likely is $650,000 and $400,000 between properties for market The to shift. developers from construction costs may require some discounting increased and works foundation significant requiring blocks sloping steeply however more steady, to remain to continue expected are blocks real estate agents, if prospective purchasers are are purchasers prospective if agents, estate real by local repeated oft as available, stock limited Even into 2019. well to continue likely with is this and of 2018 few months last the in of this evidence We saw investors. property and buyers home criteria, application for lending particularly first to restrictions to more lead could which decisions financing their in scrutiny more much under now are lenders and banks 2018, Following atumultuous concern. of most being reluctance of lenders to make finance available the is however it 2019, in rate increases interest of projected threat continuing the include prices house influence to potentially Key factors months. six first strong arather following subdue to started activity sales where of 2018 six months last of the heels the on continuing softening, some to Kyogle experience likely is area and Casino the in ahead year 2019 the for market residential The Kyogle / Casino some softnesssome in certain market sectors. to due to slightly fall expected market the with falls, of large ayear to be expected it is nor growth, of ayear to be expected not is 2019 short, In times. selling extended and pressure downward some to experience likely most are properties secondary to increase, likely is supply that is expectation the where amarket in However prices. maintain and market Lismore the to insulate likely is relative affordability its with combined sectors rural employment base from government, education and astrong and coastline best of Australia’s some to proximity -its achiever aquiet is Lismore very limited supply of vacant residential lots available for sale. It is interesting to note that in both Casino and Kyogle, there is and Kyogle is therefore likely to remain rather rather Kyogle to remain likely therefore is and The demand for rental accommodation in Casino sub-$150,000. think land… flat for reasonable to be considered still are prices the since especially strong, relatively to be likely is aproduct such for demand the land, residential of vacant supply to limited the due that expected is It of Casino. fringe eastern the on Estate Settlers the in stock lot residential vacant available of all sale the completed recently having initiative, this on form good some has Council The Casino. in sale for available lots globo en residential few very of the one to initiative acquire the taking Valley Council Richmond by the addressed been has concern This sale. for available lots residential of vacant supply limited very Kyogle, is there and Casino both to in that note interesting is It quality improvements. high or frontage river or creek views, expansive as such features valued highly with properties possible increases for the more well-presented with steady to remain likely is markets estate real end ofupper the residential and rural residential the for of 2019 year coming the Therefore, bracket price plus $500,000 the in appeal average above residential and rural residential properties of keep the market buoyant for well-presented possibly will finance mortgage on dependent not is The more well-heeled prospective purchaser who $400,000. Kyogle below and Casino in property estate real of residential majority the to affect likely is This sell. to difficult to be going still is available is stock whatever housing then criteria, lender’s the dependent on mortgage finance and cannot satisfy
Month in Review in Month February 2019 30
RESIDENTIAL secure finance and must therefore look to rent. look therefore must and finance secure cannot buyers home first if particularly strong, could become under pressure. pressure. under become could market this to fall, continue markets city capital if and steadied market local the as up trading buyers local and buyers interstate from properties these in interest strong have seen years Previous caution. with treated to be one the is suburbs Head Lennox and Bay, Park Byron Suffolk the throughout million $1 above market the that We think demand. buyer in of adrop advise agents as of 2019 two weeks first the in increase the on to be seems purchasers (mainly interstate). The stock level remaining with matched were being properties and market the driving still was of stock lack ended, 2018 As million. $1.5 above prices property prestige in correction slight apossible with steadily, track will it we believe surrounds, and market Shire Byron the for feel to overall the relation In demand. than greater be supply should area wider the impact negatively to potential the has and term to medium short the in aconcern be could Head Lennox throughout land of vacant Stock levels market. local the on effect have asignificant could cities capital the within conditions market of easing reports media with coupled supply in any increases Subsequently, 2018. early since activity overall reduced reported have generally area the in active agents local fare as localities these how to see interesting be will it softens market the As areas. these throughout sale for available of stock levels low to the attributed predominantly be can This 2018. throughout experienced market the in downturn to the immune relatively haveValley been Shires Richmond and Ballina of the areas coastal The /ByronBallina Bay steady or even increase. remain prices sale to see likely is appeal, beachside quaint and Yamba’s with desirability combined relative affordability, This similar nearby locations. affordable compared to which remains $540,000 and $520,000 between of price house a median of Yambatownship saw coastal the 2018, In areas. most in supply outweighing demand remain with solid, rates will rental and occurring of sales volume the that predicted is it and their associated workforce influx continue, Correctional Centre upgrades. Whilst these works Grafton and Highway Pacific by the primarily fuelled momentum market with -positively to 2018 similarly to perform Valley expected is Clarence The Valley Clarence The complex development with a new Woolworths. anew with development complex shopping of anew form the in development commercial the is 2019 in to shire this coming element interesting Another market. existing the and values land on pressure may put which available of land levels stock higher to provide likely are developments These subdivisions. newer of effect ripple the is market this in 2019 during to unfold likely element unusual and interesting An towns. style resorts considered more affordable than the coastal be would Ballina and Shores of Ocean areas surrounding now. The right market the in affordable comparatively seem that areas are There house price 2018 2018 price house 2018 price house Grafton median median Grafton - $540,000 - $330,000 $330,000 - Yamba $520,000 $520,000 $310,000 $310,000 median median
stabilise and the rate of increase slow. rate of the increase and stabilise market the may see easing This 2020. in completed be set is to upgrade Highway Pacific the as to ease of enquiry intensity the for unusual be not would it into2019, set are to continue and identified been have of 2018 trends market property positive the influencing behind Whilstfactors primary some rental value. market usual to Friday their times to up for three Monday from properties occupying to workers leased being properties some with prices, sale in increase force the for driving is a influx workforce to the due achieved being returns high and market rental the that is year. Grafton for of note Apoint with a steady increase throughout observed the $330,000 and $310,000 between ranged 2018 in price median the Grafton, in south Further the Royal Commission into banking practices, plus plus practices, into banking Royal Commission the from to fallout the due conditions market easing over media the in negativity of continuing a result as somewhat have softened confidence consumer and urgency Buyer market. into the creeping negativity some However, seeing now we are and announced for the region. commencing projects infrastructure major the and properties investment quality good or properties holiday lock-up homes, second seeking buyers city confidence, strong interest from interstate capital interest rate environment, increase in consumer been predominantly underpinned by the record low has surge This few years. past over the experienced surge market the from ahangover may be which normal than to year the start slower a somewhat however seeing we are fortunes, property their about thinking not are public of the majority the when period holiday over the expected normally to year, the is which start aslow been has It Coffs Harbour Month in Review in Month February 2019 31
RESIDENTIAL seen. to be remain will however this sectors, market some for wheels the in wobble possible some with steady to remain expected generally is year The by 2020. possibly Harbour Coffs of Highway bypass Pacific of the start the anticipating especially works, the in projects infrastructure major and opportunities lifestyle endless by its underpinned is region the gloom, and doom this of all backdrop the Against accordingly. follow will prices then falls, demand if and term short the in oversupply an may cause which market the hitting homes spec in increase an to see We expect years. two past the over have mushroomed which Beach Sandy and Beach Sapphire North as such of Coffs to north the markets estate to new watch the is sector Another meet changed buyer expectations. to levels price to adjust resistant being vendors with coupled lifestylediscretionary purchases, for areas these target traditionally who buyers city) of town (capital out from interest to reduced attributed largely is which million) (abovemarket $1 prestige the is down swinging starts pendulum the when most the suffers typically which market The wings. the in waiting buyers to news cashed-up Good years. over recent side seller’s on the firmly been having towards buyers, swinging is pendulum market the that a feeling definitely is there but to in, fall about is sky the that think We don’t alike. vendors and buyers from attitude see and await with stage atransition in is market the We that feel region. this in of town buyers out of proportion asignificant represents traditionally Sydney which greater market the especially markets, city capital the in reductions noticeable being felt elsewhere may not be as severe in our our severe in as be may not feltelsewhere being prices house declining recent and slow remain will market property local the that We predict best. at stable, remaining values and subdued market property the keep will and region local our in activity investor stalled has This changes. legislation tax gains capital and gearing negative if further market property the impact may result this as election federal of the outcome the awaiting anxiously are November,in investors Victoria in to government returned being Labor With election. federal the and election state Wales South New upcoming the is moment the at market housing on the However, influence major the ofmajority Sydney markets. Melbourne and the have affected which constraints, affordability and growth wage weak lending, tighter as such market, local our forces affecting national some of aid the with 2019, in to set continue looks This period. sale to six of month athree to norm the returning units and houses with area, Macquarie Port the in Throughout we 2018, saw stable housing prices CoastMid North Town Centre Macquarie Port Source: Hasting Council providing renovation work. by further industry construction the supporting and locations good in of town and proximity close within located dwellings type original or of older agents estate real of local levels stock the by increasing new aged-care facilities coming onto the market, of the as a result occur should on effect A flow market. estate real our stabilising in assist also will this of town to sales, out prone therefore and destination atourist of being advantage Together added the with to area. the relocating of families influxes receiving still is Macquarie Port facilities, and lifestyle beachside to its Due ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ include: projects infrastructure New 2019. of half first the for decline price predicted the through us weather and keel even the hopefully will creation, job with together Macquarie, Port in local region. The assistance of major development ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ and opened. StoreBunnings and late 2018; in commenced which upgrade million $9.875 Terminal - Airport Macquarie Port construction in early 2019; to commence due Cathie Lake Drive, Ocean planned at facility care aged 126 bed New 2019; March to open scheduled facility, care aged a68-bed offer will and completion near is Community Retirement Grange Sienna homes; 105 featuring Macquarie, Port Drive Ocean at Facility Age and Village Retirement Pozieres students; 1,800 additional an for providing 2to commence, of Stage construction million $40 University Sturt Charles which is soon to be completed completed to be soon is which
Month in Review in Month February 2019 32
RESIDENTIAL from our own study. own our from confirmed are These market. of the side purchaser the on urgency less and of level diligence higher a and toward purchasers leaning are terms and attendees at open houses, negotiations on price in adecrease report agents estate Real unfolded. they as few months past of the events the seeing and listening after formed been has outlook This it. preceding those than one prosperous aless be will ahead year the that and slowing was market the that indicates quarter last review of the asober but of 2018, most throughout indeed times good very some We experienced region sits between. Coast Central the which markets Newcastle and Sydney the particularly state, of the to parts many scenario asimilar is of course, This count. we can than stories success more with market estate real region’s Coast Central local the for period bountiful have a to proven years be several past The Central Coast the metropolitan areas. areas. metropolitan the from on effect flow the and prices house declining to vulnerable more may be growth infrastructure have not do that Coast North Mid the along all villages towns and coastal other We that feel falling values. to slow stable and demand limited with slow remain region the in markets property residential rural- and properties prestige value, higher The year. this recommence will developments of these construction that unlikely is it and options finance and of pre-sales to alack due 2018 in stalled that underway developments unit density higher located of centrally were anumber There market. slowing by the affected being development unit with stabilised have also area the within sales Unit Crane Index with 18 cranes “in the air”. the “in cranes 18 with Index Crane region has been listed on the Rider Levett Bucknell Coast Central the that such is activity building developers secure development sites. In fact, afew saw non-local available opportunities the dominated by two main development companies, residential unit developments occurring. Although of new anumber seen has market local strong The cycles. to previous opposed as period sustained and extended over an occurred recently very until seen rises and activity The cycles. predictive fairly previous, in seen to those different to be likely are have or indicators market predictive and reliable normally the because We interesting say segments. most in peaked finally has market the saying are we -yes, estate real local the for one interesting an to be proving as year 2019 the We see media. of the role the be will effective more perhaps but obvious, Less sellers. and of buyers absence or presence the of course, and stock availability of financing, cost the include will of this determinants Obvious activity. sell and buy of reduced aperiod to see expect we can themselves, repeat cycles previous if and progresses year the as segments some in wane will confidence this to that us indicate confidence ispresent, the foregoing comments of level market good areasonably Although felt. is practices lending of revised bite the as year into the continuing this we see and of 2018 part toward latter the increased lenders with interaction our level, operational At amore with 18 cranes “in the air”. has been listed on the Rider Levett Bucknell Crane Index Building activity is such that the Central Coast region older suburbs populated for the most by part Toukley. and are Charmhaven These Gorokan, Kanwal, include These yet realised. to be rises of potential promise hold but attention, same have the yet to gain suburbs adjoining popular less of the some we think period, busy the during well fared suburbs these While arising. issues retention and affordability we see continuing, and finance is affordable. Without these factors maintained are standards living high, is confidence ever while prosper will and coast of the areas belt mortgage classic the fit suburbs These bracket. to $800,000 $700,000 into the prices seeing regularly We now are suburbs. these among are Terrace Wadalba and Hamlyn Woongarrah, families, to young appeal and Motorway to M1 the proximity close to their due Perhaps growth. value experience of suburbs anumber seen has market strong The market professional under marketing campaigns. current the and project of the newness the reflected both that prices for plan the off were sold units of the many practices, current with accordance In several years. centre past over the city the to revitalise focus of governmental aresult is Gosford in of activity level this for reasons underlying of the one consider we experienced, market strong generally the from Apart available. some still are there but sold, been have units of the most ascertain, we can as far So CBD. Gosford the around and within have occurred developments new of these Amajority occurring. activity of level building of the indication an is This
Month in Review in Month February 2019 33
RESIDENTIAL over an hour away Sydney. from hour over an alittle are areas –these close relatively remaining Sydney while market to unaffordable exit the seeking by buyers fuelled to have been appears activity of the Much average. regional the than greater much increases with concerned, are values as far so expectations all have exceeded Beach Woy Ettalong Woy and Beach, of Umina suburbs peninsula The purchase. into anew diving before considered carefully to be need may now that areas be will there activity, market of high aperiod After Gosford CBD mentioned earlier. of the revitalisation the off to leverage potential have the suburbs These mark. $500,000 the around for available purchases still are there but prices on the depending vary individual property, Again, available. opportunities good some still are there renovators, and buyers home of late first for popular somewhat while and CBD to Gosford the close are These Wyoming. and Park Niagara Narara, Other peripheral suburbs worth monitoring include bracket. to $350,000 $300,000 the within made be still can purchases condition, and age the on depending but suburbs, these across course of vary Prices monitored. be they recommend we and opportunity good may prove to provide that these as such suburbs It’s renovation. for opportunity good with dwellings older similarly CBD Gosford Source: Ray White White Ray Source: will likely emerge. likely will situation oversupply an then space, this in exposure of level their to reduce look lenders or weakens more units under construction and if the demand are there good, been has units of new up take the Whilst market. of the segment this in activity much been has earlier, there mentioned As CBD. Gosford the around and in market unit the in exercised be to needs of level caution asimilar that We expect property cycle. of the phase next we move into as the challenge a to be likely is values existing the sustaining From a valuation perspective, maintaining and currently find themselves. team cricket Australian of the selectors the where to likened be can to question that answer the and year this daunting even is more It data. historical in mainly deals who avaluer is writer that if writer, the for especially of trepidation degree afair with approached always is it question, here” from go market the will “where perennial the on column apredictions writing When unprecedented in its length. largely growth, sustained and of strong years many followed of transition year This 2018. to be happened just It stage. some at to occur year, of the end by the going always was market brittle increasingly and to asoft on early market fast-moving and abullish from transition, That Newcastle and Hunter Valley residential markets. the for of transition ayear as marked was 2018 Newcastle or improve in the next 12 months. further soften than stay the course It’s more likely that the market will property prices most likely dipping down from from down dipping likely most prices property and occurring fewer with transactions market the of consolidation further on is money smart The the board. across values property downward over further for left is whatever maths and equilibrium and balance of chance cent per 30 increase, and of arebound chance cent ten per go we would scenario, of each likelihood the on outcomes percentage totold place we were If downwards. quickly sink could it way or either move much not and middle the in balanced increasingChristmas it start and could again, stay after up back pick could -it direction either in go could it line; over atrend predictions for tool visual asuperior is of scales aset where apoint at is however, year This market the trend. established well- the with line in growth, further to predict astretch not it’s ever is growing, market the When beneficiaries. major the be likely will swiftest the reality new the with deal who Those alike. sport life and real in occur cycles success and failure ever for and same the stays nothing that reminder astark are present at times Hard expected. but for hoped wasn’t success ongoing environment, previous the In truthful. being are onlookers educated if period asignificant for apparent readily been had signs warning suddenly, quite to have happened appears decline this face of it the on Whilst passes. times as obvious and frequent more have become which performances, sub-par of period agrowing been has there but success of unparalleled years many enjoyed XI First The
anecdotally. By this we mean properties properties we mean this By anecdotally. more but data quantifiable and verified with much so not recently; Newcastle around and in back come prices see to We have started levels. present Month in Review in Month February 2019 34
RESIDENTIAL from Sydney. from of buyers catchment increasing an with together growth, of that driver main the being infrastructure to access with steady Vale remains Moss and Bowral of Mittagong, townships to main the close properties for million to up $1.5 market residential the six months, past the for we have observed As growth. of strong aperiod following year last early peaking after track will market to the as how Highlands Southern the across of uncertainty adegree is there 2019, off we kick As Southern Highlands stay the course or improve in the next 12 months. 12 next the in improve or course the stay than soften further will market the that likely more it’s that evidence on conclude and we see what relay only we can answers, the have all We don’t increasing. still is supply and weakening is demand current that given category into that may fall presently Newcastle around and in units building currently Anyone wrong. horribly timing the getting and trends market on by gambling fortunes have lost more that argue also we would aside, an As trends. future predicting accurately by fortunes significant have made investors and developers smart many however that noted to be has It game. afool’s is trend, of the length and strength importantly, as Predicting market direction and, probably just incinerated. are snags holiday your when smoke in engulfed aren’t so you campfire your light to where to know adequate than more but tool accurate most the -not direction wind to judge air in the high it raising and finger your licking like little a It’s temperature. rough to gauge tool a valuable is circles, analytical in upon frowned whilst data, of anecdotal type This market. the from removed quietly are and of months aperiod after sell don’t which levels to boom similar prices for advertised attributes. Indeed, over the past twelve-month individual buyer preferences and specificproperty by influenced heavily are segment market this within periods) (and selling prices Sale volatility. market to higher subject been have historically (above million) $3 segment market lifestyle rural and acreage rural higher-end the in properties spectrum, of the end At other the period. selling anormal within asale to achieve discounted being lots vacant some in resulted has which (Bowral) Vale) Park Retford (Moss and Views Throsby and Estate Darraby (Mittagong), Renwick as such Mittagong Vale and Moss of Bowral, townships the region coming on line across the main throughout projects sub-division land residential of oversupply an saw of 2018 quarter fourth The of 2019. quarter second the in line on come to Highlands Southern the in supermarket third its of construction commencing Aldi and of 2018 four quarter in line on coming Station Police Command Area Local Highlands Southern new the including infrastructure, new and bars and cafes retailing, boutique of further opening and strip Street retail Argyle of the transformation ongoing the with families, young and buyers home of first market to abroader to appeal Vale continues Moss Signature Wollongong
Source: signaturewollongong.com.au Southern Highlandsregion. purchaserbroadening catchment discovering the a we foresee conditions, credit of tighter impact the with combined period current over the soften to to continue Sydney expected the market With discriminating in their purchasing decisions. areas with purchasers tending to highly be residential rural isolated more the in volatility of signs demonstrable been has there period, have previously purchased and are now trying trying now are and purchased have previously who those with to head head competing are Developers codes. post above the in sale for listed lots land vacant residential 185 approximately showed realestate.com.au 2019, January at As Grange. Kembla Tullimbar, and Wongawilli Horsley, Calderwood, in continue will land of new Release the Wollongong CBD. in units residential with along codes post 2526 and 2527, the in 2530 land -vacant areas hit hardest of the two include to watch 2019 in types Property year. the in later level lower the at of stabilising possibility the with 2018 of trend softening the to continue market the and 2019 in relevant to remain factors these We expect ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ throughout 2018: weakening to market the havethat led factors four We have identified market. abuyer’s toup be residential market, property with 2019 shaping Illawarra the in turned truly and well has tide The Illawarra ◗ ◗ ◗ ◗ General negative sentiment and media coverage. coverage. media and sentiment negative General Oversupply; and Weaker Sydney market property conditions; Tighter practices; lending Month in Review in Month February 2019 35
RESIDENTIAL Access, Albion Park Bypass, Berry to Bomaderry to Bomaderry Berry Bypass, Park Albion Access, Dapto West the include progress they as sentiment market positive provide will that pipeline the in infrastructure projects under construction or major Other 2019. of life in abit up to stir able may be that sentiment market in ashift provide will marina of the opening the with along stage Town first anchored Centre Woolworths recent continued positive construction news such as the to all other residential markets recently, however similar a hit took Cove market Shell The 2019. in open to anticipated berths first the with completed Cove Shell at to have Marina track the on is Work wary. being purchasers may find work, of past evidence provide can’t who those or builders new while demand, in remain will record track aproven with builders local Experienced complexes. unit new these building is into who more informed and diligent with investigations Tower,Sydney’s Opal become will they we believe as such failures of construction exposure of media back the on and choice more and havenow more Purchasers prices. and markets unit style older and newer the both to affect to continue units of new supply high the We expect them. between units 544 total which developments Skye, and Signature Avantè, ParQ, including construction commencing developments scale of large number a with into 2019 continued has development sales, general and off-the-plan in slowdown the Despite period. this throughout construction unit of residential amount unprecedented an with 2017 to 2013 from boom property of the back the on transformation ahuge had CBD Wollongong The dropped back to under $300,000. has Tullimbar subdivisions and Calderwood into the price entry The to drop. to continue areas these in land for prices aresult, as and 2019 throughout demand to outweigh supply We expect to re-sell. Central West as buyers looking for older federation federation older for looking buyers as West Central be would pick one number Our to sell. begin owners home as market onto the are coming old) five years to (two homes completed recently as sales strong Tamworth showing are of North parts developing the and Calala For builds, newer charm. style old their and to CBD the Tamworth proximity their for of North parts established the and area West to watch Tamworth in Central the are suburbs The costs. low and yields rental good the on to capitalise looking investors as well as cities the from change alifestyle for looking those to Tamworth attract in continues property of cost low comparatively rates and interest low enduring The Wales. South New in elsewhere markets cooling the as well as drought ongoing to the due years previous rate than aslower at be to expected it’s strengthening, to continue likely is market the that we feel While owner-occupiers. and investors both from market of the sectors all across in the Tamworth region, with continued interest growth of steady ayear to up be shaping is 2019 year! away another for we go And Tamworth have shown any interest in the listing. listing. the in any interest have shown to party only the are they if purchaser, particularly a benefit can to sell motivated is who a vendor Finding prices. good at properties to purchase 2019 throughout opportunities good be will There upgrade. Hospital Shoalhaven and crossing River Shoalhaven link, Tamworth and are beginning to look elsewhere. for older federation style homes are being priced out of East Our number one pick would be Central West as buyers looking high and the potential for capital growth is limited. is growth capital for potential the and high is to property the of damage risk the achieved, be can yields rental high While properties. Commission of Housing consists development surrounding and new of the much as location non-desirable a within located development new in increase an with concern for reason to provide continues Tamworth Coledale of West as area known The owner-occupiers. to include changing slowly is this investors, at more aimed been have historically suburbs these of patches While neighbourhood. good a sacrifice to having without housing affordable offer all Westdale Vale Oxley and Tamworth, Hillvue, of South suburbs The noted. growth strong and quickly selling properties with well performing Daruka, Tintinhull and Timbumburi) are all Creek, Tamworth Moore (such as surrounding areas the in (one to hectares) 20 properties residential rural drought, relentless the Despite elsewhere. to look beginning are and Tamworth of East out priced being are homes style Month in Review in Month February 2019 36
RESIDENTIAL Month in Review Victoria February 2019
Melbourne due to the large wave of off-the-plan apartment AVERAGE NUMBER OF VISITS PER LISTING As another year passes by, it’s safe to say that we complexes coming to completion in 2019, as there PER MONTH OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS are looking forward with anticipation to what 2019 are concerns that supply will outstrip demand. will bring in the property sector. East Last year turned out to be a turbulent year. In the The property market is currently in the midst of latter half of the year, the property market started a housing price correction. Real estate agents to cool after six years of solid growth and it was advise that they are suggesting to their clients quick and dramatic. Virtually overnight, all banks to undertake longer marketing campaigns to tightened their lending requirements, reducing encourage a transaction. Many are also resorting to buyer competition. private sales rather than auctions and approaching clients one-on-one rather than executing a market- It is not all doom and gloom forecast for 2019. wide marketing campaign. Australia is in a good economic position. Interest rates remain at historically low levels, Buyers in the market now have the time and unemployment is down and there is strong opportunity to complete their due diligence Source: Realestate.com, Jan 2019 population growth, so 2019 should be an and market research without the pressure of a interesting year. seller’s market. We predict that properties in the RESIDENTIAL $700,000 to $900,000 range will have adequate CBD high in-demand spots, scoring the highest property demand. Values in the blue chip eastern suburbs of We expect the inner-suburban ring property market views on realestate.com. The Park Orchards median Hawthorn, Kew, Balwyn and Glen Waverley value to marginally stabilise in the second half of 2019 in as at 2 January 2019 was $1,527,280. fell approximately 20 per cent in 2018, though there suburbs such as Port Melbourne, South Melbourne are still pockets with demand in the greater eastern In the outer east, we expect demand to increase and South Yarra. We expect Melbourne’s inner- suburbs. Park Orchards and Warrandyte were the as the Kinley development at the former Lilydale city apartment sector to face a slight decline,
Development Activity Model Source: City of Melbourne, Jan 2019 $979,360 - 4 Bed 2 bath 2 car Source: Kinley, Jan 2019 $716,000 - 4 Bed 2 bath 2 car Source: Kinley, Jan 2019
37 median house prices have dropped significantly significantly have dropped prices house median Yearly forward. going to detract likely is and halted now has trend this that seems it growth, continued however after suburbs, northern the in prices property in growth extraordinary showing years, six past the in shone has market property The Inner & Outer North throughout 2019. to buyers entice prices purchase reduced than offeringbe greater incentives to purchasers will alike builders and developers market, the in shift negative the to counteract order in however 2019, throughout to this cool expect We migrants. arrived recently and buyers home first from coming demand good with purchasers for choice apopular to be continue homes new brand and land Vacant boom. population strong by a driven 2018 in growth value moderate Wyndham Vale and Werribee experienced Williams Tarneit,Cook, Landing, Truganina, Point suburbs, western outer To and middle the investors. and owner-occupiers both for criteria to lending relation with forward moving market the may affect banks by the reaction The 2019. February in released to are be which Commission the Royal of findings by the influenced heavily be will however this stabilise will market the believe we into 2019, forward Looking of 2018. half latter the in growth negative seeing markets apartment and dwelling the both with months twelve past over the slowed market inner-city Melbourne The West &Outer Inner million. $1 to under $700,000 from range packages land cent increase in Lilydale’s and House population. a70 per and people 8,000 for homes new 3,200 create will project billion $2 the that expected was releasedQuarry to buyers in late It’s 2018. northern suburbs will plateau in 2019. in plateau will suburbs northern outer the that predict and harshly drop prices property northern inner to see we expect Overall, 2019). (realestate.com, 2019 in cent per 11.2 to drop predicted are suburbs north-eastern inner the growth, of substantial six years After Carlton. and Abbotsford as such north inner of the suburbs prestige the be will hardest hit to be going Areas to Melbourne. move closer to wanting Victorians country or to Melbourne moving families international for of selection choice the be may still areas these prices, affordable for By suburbs. offeringnorthern generous land areas outer and inner the for option affordable true only may prove the to be Mickleham and Kalkallo Craigieburn, as such areas orientated Development prices. to November demonstrating 2018, the declining 2016 from million to $1.365 million $1.55 from dropping years, two in less $200,000 nearly for sold Brunswick Street, Horne 19 For example, 2019). Value, cent), demonstrating the downtrend (Property (6.72 per Abbotsford cent) and per (13.49 Carlton (7.94 cent), East per Brunswick as such areas in 19 Horne Street, Brunswick Brunswick Street, Horne 19 Source: RP Data RP Source: of 2019. of half second the in astabilising with year of the half first in the softening a year,this predict figures we such see not will market the believed is it Although (realestate.com.au). of $522,000 price median a with houses, being cent per 91.5 transacting, dwellings 1,114 with market housing active Last year, Pakenham hosted Melbourne’s most for good opportunities there. allowing place, market current the in have slowed potential could entice individuals as developers addition, properties with term longer development In Caulfield. and East Malvern Bentleigh, as such schools and cafes transport, public amenities, to close those as such drivers usual the include to perform likely Areas choice. have greater buyers as more struggle will lines, by power impacted or roads busy on located condition, poor in those as In the south-east region, secondary properties such of 2019. half second the grow in year,of the moderately however will half first the in further fall will prices property that suggests Domain at economist Trent an Wiltshire, Inner & Outer South-East unfortunately there has not been the injection of of injection the been not has there unfortunately but growth solid recent have seen Corio and Geelong North Hill, Herne Heights, Hamlyn West, Geelong’s northern suburbs such as Geelong off. to to alevelling see we expect 2019, in year. forward 2018 over Looking the Victoria in terms percentage in growth capital highest of the infrastructure spending, Geelong recorded some and asset government of major injections recent with and market Melbourne to greater the comparison in Affordable of Melbourne. trend the against has going downward been Geelong Geelong Month in Review in Month February 2019 38
RESIDENTIAL unfolds. year the how to wait see vendors as months coming over the to stabilise markets these expect We value. for look buyers as key the driver still affordability with popular to be proving are that areas secondary cheaper the It’s market. on days longer and doors through numbers fewer reporting are Agents months. over recent have softened Bellarine and Coast Surf The market. the in foothold and reduced competition to get a long-awaited concessions duty of stamp advantage taking buyers home first with popular to be proving is area This station. train Ponds Waurn the and university Centre, Shopping to Ponds Waurn proximity close within potential development future providing allotments larger offer suburbs These value. good providing as perceived being still are Ponds Waurn and Grovedale of Belmont, suburbs southern outer The development. Franz the for of construction commencement and in mid-2019, increasing employment opportunities Street project NDIA’s as such Malop developments commercial of large completion the with demand gentrification. We theseareas expect to increase in of signs showing area the with updates and renovations small to undertake willing to those opportunities good provide centre will to city the closer located however areas suburbs, eastern Geelong’s in observed being are trends Similar year. of the part latter the in stabilising before occurs correction amarket as value in adecrease to see expect we can properties, credit legislation, particularly investment grade Furthermore, with the tightening of lending south. the in seen as projects key infrastructure remains dry during 2019, we would also expect to to expect also we would 2019, during dry remains catchment River Murray the event that the In real. is risk however the 2019, in occur will this whether to predict early require more water to maintain It’s gardens. too which properties residential rural larger from away turned buyers period, that During to 2009. 2007 from period the in was water availability with issues serious water. we had time last The of volumes average below holding currently are dams catchment water issue, the On aresult. as have lengthened periods selling that and months in recent finance securing difficulty greater have had buyers some that report agents to credit, respect With 2019. water during of irrigation ashortage experience will region the whether around concern and of credit availability relate to the horizon the on clouds main The 2018. in experienced rise cent per five the rate than lower aslightly at likely most but grow, will market our that anticipate and housing new and existing both for demand continued to see sector. We expect horticultural of abuoyant back the on growing is economy our and annum per cent per one of around growth haveWe population still here. correction to any impending point not do Mildura in fundamentals market the cities, capital some in underway currently corrections are there year. coming over the While buoyant reasonably to remain expected is market Mildura The Mildura a shortage of irrigation water during 2019. credit and concern around whether the region will experience The main clouds on the horizon relate to the availability of spending over $1 million in our region. our in million over $1 spending contemplating by buyers more up picked to be likely is markets city in activity slowing around noise The 2019. during out levelling some to see we expect few years, past over the considerably grown has which market, of our to end top the regard With attractive. be will this buyers some for and prices cheaper sizes and lot larger have locations these in Subdivisions Gol. Gol and Cliffs Red including towns, satellite in subdivisions newer of the some in improve demand to see expected is supply, alimited with combined Mildura, The increased cost of lots serviced buying in our economy. in to a weakening through flow would turn in which activity, horticultural local in contraction some see $375,000-plus market, which is considered to be to be considered is which market, $375,000-plus the in increase an to see starting is Mooroopna cent. to of up ten per jump aprice have seen sector) sub-$300,000 the (particularly market of the areas Some yields. higher by the attracted being increase in interest from metropolitan investors anoticeable with types buyer all from activity increased have reported agents estate Local falling. market on days average overall with volumes the region has continued to see increased sales (CoreLogic), yet cent per 1.5 of just increase price median aten-year had has Kialla) and Mooroopna The Shepparton property market (including Shepparton
Month in Review in Month February 2019 39
RESIDENTIAL estimated completion date in 2020. in date completion estimated an with have commenced, works Preliminary region. the in employers largest of the one is and staff 2,200 some employs currently hospital The upgrades. other plus ward, maternity extended and arefurbished rooms, operating new three afour-storey tower, see will which million $168 redevelopment. The state government has pledged Valley Hospital Goulburn of the continuation the is 2019 for project infrastructure major The investor activity. increased the hence cent, per seven of above yields with sold being place in tenants with properties to find unusual not is however it cent, six per the around hovering are area the in yields Shepparton population being renters. Investment of the one-third approximately with cent per 1.5 around at sitting rates are vacancy Residential estates. some in common still are builds however over-capitalised parameters, market with etc)tops line in are bench appliances, (cooking upgrades basic with becoming more fluid.Generally, new constructions is $475,000 above Kialla and Shepparton in stock established quality good whilst market, oftop the Goulburn Valley Hospital redevelopment
Source: blp.com.au values over the coming twelve to 24 months. to 24 twelve months. coming over the values property residential in increase an for well bode should to Melbourne proximity region’s the and infrastructure increase in upgrades, buyer activity planned values, property low relatively The traction). some gain to starting finally is but counting, and years 21 for cards the on been (which has project from Melbourne and the Shepparton bypass to and of services number the double than more deliver will which upgrade rail passenger the are horizon the on upgrades infrastructure Other Month in Review in Month February 2019 40
RESIDENTIAL Month in Review Queensland February 2019
Brisbane Investors in particular were hard hit. This group Also, our city’s comparatively affordable real estate “Brisbane??? Why would you live up there?” they was dealing with restriction to interest-only lending is a draw card. We are the third largest capital and said. “Too humid, too hot... Couldn’t stand so much as well as tougher rules from the banks. All in all, have the joys of brilliant coastline, hinterland and sweating!” many decided it was all a bit too hard and got out rural lifestyle on our doorstep. To many from the of the way. Conversely, there were plenty of first south, our housing must look incredibly cheap. Well, it has been a touch tepid up here since the home buyers willing to take up some of the slack start of the year but we’ve seen nothing like the Of course, we are being rediscovered, with our net with participation in this cohort on the rise. 40 plus degree scorchers inflicted on other capital interstate migration number shooting up over the cities in more moderate climes. This is the platform upon which 2019 has launched past two years. It looks to have set into a positive itself and while noises are coming out of the halls trend and is a key leading indicator of property As if the weather weren’t reason enough to love of power suggesting credit policy needs to be price growth. us, Brisbane in 2019 looks set to offer a little more loosened, it might take some time to bring the to its property buyers. We’re a city with excellent Add to this the ongoing low interest rate confidence back. potential for growth. If you’ve been considering a environment. We realise that getting the banks to move to this, the nation’s best city, perhaps 2019 Enough of the bad stuff – what are some of the say “yes” has been a bit tougher, but if you do have should be your year. positives on the horizon for our River City? a loan approval, the decent yields achieved through Brisbane in the coming twelve months will, RESIDENTIAL generally speaking, see a stable market across most locations. We aren’t historically prone to We are the third largest capital and have the joys of brilliant mighty price movements in either direction. We coastline, hinterland and rural lifestyle on our doorstep. Queenslanders and our real estate tend to take a more laid-back approach. Well, we are heading into a period of strong real estate investment in Brisbane will offset much As mentioned in Month in Reviews past, Brisbane investment in infrastructure that only bodes of your ongoing borrowing costs. has been on the cusp of substantial price rises for well for Brisbane. It feels like it’s been a long On to our picks for 2019. We’re not going to go out about six years now. While there are plenty punting time coming. Apart from the obvious benefits on any limbs because, frankly, we don’t need to. on the idea that 2019 will bring big gains, we prefer of boosting our liveability, infrastructure drives to think our real estate values will strengthen in a employment and that’s an area sorely in need of Solid fundamentals will continue to reign. While more measured way. improvement in Queensland. demand is always steady for near city suburbs, property seems fully priced at present. We Like most other markets around the nation, In addition, some of these major projects will have don’t expect you’ll jag any bargains within three Brisbane was affected by macro financial changes national and international appeal – the Howard kilometres of the CBD, but long-term gains are instigated by Australian regulators that resulted in Smith Wharves project and the Queens Wharf highly likely. constrained credit availability. Buyers were keen complex in particular – which have a flow on for but if they couldn’t lock down a loan approval, what boosting our tourism and services sector. Our pick would be to shoot for some of the inner- was the point? and mid-ring addresses. This is solid real estate
41 developers could see the writing on the wall and and wall the on writing the see could developers Savvy slowed. has pipeline the through to come expected supply of the much of late and well done apartments pitched primarily at homeowners have Those fortunes. in aturnaround been has there that continued to dominate commentary, we do note has suburbs, city inner in particularly apartments, of oversupply well-documented the While estate. real any this for if growth subdued to be seems result the hand, on of supply plenty with and either sector this in equation of the side demand the helped have not restrictions Credit gains. capital is goal offer, your if on warily tread designs townhouse generic or structures duplex and occupancy dual than homeowners. If there’s a predominance of rather towards investors pitched being are that our northern and western corridors in estates along locations lying outer in to caution move with want might you to avoid, of places you’reIf thinking locations pays dividends for property. well-populated these in Flexibility you. for upside is there then subdivision, asmall do yet, better or land, vacant to jag opportunity have you if the Also, the value stakes. to grow in room provides price median the below Buying of gains. chance your way to better another is locations these in property priced level Entry redevelopment potential. long-term good, with allotments larger or blocks, size decent on homes renovatable for Look of growth. chances your boost can that elements property specific out to is seek here tip Our south. the in Moorooka to through Annerley and north the in Stafford to out Enoggera include would this example, play. to likes and For live population our where occurring in the past six months in the north-west north-west the in six months past the in occurring this seen We have already anticipated. is activity investor and levels price in reduction with market the in easing aslow months, twelve next the Over West Region North Coast Gold annum’s end. by fine do should owners property then negatives, the eliminate and positive the accentuate can we If to ayear watch Brisbane. in be will 2019 back. of years couple a did it than dire less looking is future the but rush back into this type of investor accommodation, anyone recommending We aren’t sites. their sold either reconfigured their stock or land-banked or
Stafford
Source: realestate.com.au Source: HTW HTW Source: with the negative media coverage on the property property the on coverage media negative the with coupled regulations, lending to tighter led has that commission royal of banking the effects The 2018. of start the since region north central of the most in back pulled has market the as to sell order in right priced to be need will Properties periods. selling of extension an with to ease, continue will prices Property of 2018. part later the from on continue to set is market property of the feel overall The Region North Central rental returns. and investment affecting still but better getting gradually is which housing investment in oversupply an quite still is there although slowed definitely The construction happening in this region has most investors. and buyers home first to both appeal hopefully will these $500,000, and $400,000 between points price affordable with to watch and areas main the be will Scrub Bahrs and Ormeau Holmview, Flagstone, of Yarrabilba, suburbs The activity. market on effect obvious an had has and difficult more much borrowing investment made has sector banking into the high proportion of investors. The royal commission a and types property all across estates developing of modern number of alarge consists which region
Source: HTW HTW Source: Month in Review in Month February 2019 42
RESIDENTIAL market if they wish to sell, which is resulting in a a in resulting is which to wish sell, they if market the to forced meet being are sellers Motivated prices. sale in reductions and periods selling longer experiencing are million over $1.2 Properties $735,000. for 2018 November in re-sold was and $750,000 for 2017 June in sold that Bay Runaway Drive, Beach Pebble in property a is example An into 2019. to continue expected is this and reductions price slight seen have also appeal owner-occupier good with Properties for $475,000. 2008 September in plan the off purchased was and 2015, April in of $390,000 price sale aprevious had property The unit. furnished afully for negotiated was 2019 February in $378,000 for contract Tower Arecent Central 2complex. Southport the within is unit performing of apoor example A clear demand. to meet dropping have been prices and available units still are however there sales, of pre- to lack due market unit the in slowing been has Construction purchases. plan the off on focus aclear with Island, Hope and Labrador Southport, particular in region, the across performance unit poor to see continue We will too. market property our within demand in areduction in resulted has Melbourne Sydney in falls and to price due market Southport Central
Source: RP Data Data RP Source: levels, property prices within the Central North North Central the within prices property levels, an increasing population low and unemployment or convenient surrounding development. With views to schools, location be it whether qualities, unique provide that dwellings appeal occupier owner- quality good on focus and approval finance to obtain able those for opportunities buying good see will months twelve next The million. $1.35 for 2018 November in re-sold and million $1.8 for 2007 December in purchased previously was aproperty where Helensvale, in Estate Links River the in Court Coomera in property a is example Aclear values. property surrounding clear reduction in value, consequently affecting Coomera. Helensvale. River Links. Bay Runaway beach. Pebble Source: RP Data Data RP Source: Data RP Source: have been relatively stable so far. so stable relatively have been beach) the from afew kilometres within suburbs (those suburbs coastal central the for prices sale Coast, Gold the across softening prices property of trend arecent seen we have generally Whilst lengthened over the past six to twelve months. have periods selling that have reported agents and have eased Coast Gold of the suburbs central the in volumes Sales 2019. throughout slightly to soften to it continue we expect and 2018 in off to cool started market property Coast Gold The Coast Gold Central to 24 twelve months. next over the prices weaker to experience continue will market the that years, however purchasers should keep in mind ten to next grow over the expected are region New construction finds appeal saleable highly are views Canal
Source: HTW HTW Source: Source: HTW HTW Source: Month in Review in Month February 2019 43
RESIDENTIAL depressed market. There may be some volatile volatile some may be There market. depressed a in hit hardest the often is Paradise, Surfers in particularly market, unit highrise the that cycles previous in we have noticed conditions, declining In oversupply. an may cause Coast Gold central the on year this introduced to be stock unit new of volume The to shrink. begins market investor the as buyers to attract stock balance their for rebates or incentives various offering be will interstate overseas. and We that expect developers Broadbeach, is heavily reliant on investors from and Paradise Surfers within particularly market, unit The developers. for concern agrowing been rates have sales that we understand ahead, conditions market of tougher anticipation the With Paradise. Surfers at Residences Jewel as known project hotel and residential front beach three-tower the and Residences Northcliffe Broadbeach, at Broadbeach Qube include 2019 in completion for due projects highrise scale large other and to Christmas prior completed was Paradise Surfers in Beach Budds at development highrise Norfolk on Ruby The underway. now or residential developments recently completed scale large and small many with Beach, Main and construction activity between Mermaid Beach of level ahealthy we have seen market, local in the confidence in drop recent the Despite of 2019. course over the resilient remain will spots hot Coast Gold these if to see interesting be will It pairs. even duplex or dwellings into prestige homes old to redevelop renovate or there have been great opportunities for builders and range price abroad at appeal owner-occupier good offering properties with years recent in after sought highly have become suburbs These Waters. Burleigh Waters, Waters Broadbeach and Mermaid as such suburbs in heated quite getting was market property residential the into 2018, Going strong run with the market becoming quite heated. heated. quite becoming market the with run strong avery have had prices house as Mudgeeraba buyers cautious be should perhaps in buying however Ashmore, and Benowa in stable to remain values property We expecting are Mudgeeraba. in $625,000 in Ashmore and $500,000 to $550,000 currently $625,000 to $675,000, $575,000 to is Benowa in house brick athree-bedroom for price Atypical amenities. and schools to various proximity close with housing detached affordable seeking buyers with of years couple past the over strong fairly have been (west M1) of the Mudgeeraba and M1) of the east (both Ashmore and of Benowa suburbs central the in housing Suburban next twelve months?” the in well value their hold will suburbs “Which is question The 2019. in suburbs central the in growth price any significant see we will that unlikely is It space. sector. Watch market this for this ahead times Highrise construction continues well in the next 12 months?” suburbs will hold their value “Which is, question The
Source: HTW HTW Source: properties under $1 million. There is limited stock stock limited is There million. $1 under properties residential rural is 2019 throughout to steady stay continue and trend the may buck that A segment owner-occupiers. Tweed the in being Shire purchasers most with disappeared have also Investors values. market overall affect will Commission, Royal Banking of the courtesy policies lending tighter as well as this, and ago were six months they to as twelve abundant as not are buyers Melbourne Sydney the that and 2018 of end towards the apparent more becoming was Tweed It the on Coast. million over $1 properties hit particularly will and 2019 throughout evident more become will discounts we believe have eased, prices that evidence clear no there’s been Although relatively but selling periods, prices. longer stable and levels stock more have advised agents market, of the majority the Across results. mixed with of 2018 end towards the market segmented a very became coast Wales South New FarThe Northern NSW Far Northern conditions into 2020. market similar to experience we if continue greater or cent fell ten per properties prestige for prices if surprised be We wouldn’t months. upcoming the in sector this in sellers and buyers both test will regulations lending tighter The Asia)of late. from (mostly buyers foreign and interstate on reliance astrong been has there that have noted Agents volatile. historically been has million $2 above priced properties for market The 2019. in struggle to likely is market housing of the end prestige The lengthened considerably going into 2019. have periods selling and off cooling definitely market of this signs have reported now Agents period. atwo-week within to sell Mudgeeraba in uncommon for an entry level detached house not it was 2018, of half first the and late 2017 In Month in Review in Month February 2019 44
RESIDENTIAL and potential changes to negative gearing. gearing. to negative changes potential and government in change possible a given magnified be will election of the effect The a challenge. present will election an follows generally that year, uncertainty the so election afederal is 2019 addition, In market. coast the may impact that extent to what and Melbourne Sydney and of markets southern major of the slowing continued the with unfold will year the of how indicator good be a will 2019 of quarter first The -Negatives Headwinds coast. the for positives many so are there coming, headwinds some to be appears there Whilst market. anormal called be could to what return and year to coming over the slow expected is market coast however the growth, of negative year a year. to expecting we are say not is coming This over the to ease start will it We predicting are increases in values across most sectors. and of activity levels good with market property Coast Sunshine the for year agood was 2018 Sunshine Coast the new build over the coming years. years. coming over the build new the with creation job and infrastructure to new the due advised of an increase in buyer interest in the area have agents built, Tweed being is Valley Hospital new the where of Kingscliff case the In dwellings. character and amenities to town and proximity close views, offer locations These Hill. Hospital Murwillumbah’s and Hill Kingscliff on properties including locations, held tightly and prime in located properties are over 2019 steady remain and trend the may buck that segment Another aweekender. or change atree for looking buyers Brisbane with popular also is it purchasers, local with popular type property this is only not and type property this for demand high and expected to continue to see some good activity are area Noosa the in markets prestige the and The northern coastal areas of the Sunshine Coast demand. in to be to continue expected is range price sub-$800,000 the in to Caloundra expected to continue. The coastal strip from Noosa is this and purchasers for factor adriving is lifestyle coast the given to beach the proximity always, As driver. the sizes being land larger with Palmwoods, in Habitat as such townships, railway the in subdivisions hinterland in interest good to see expected also are We investors. and owner-occupiers from interest good to generate continuing will Palmview at Harmony and of Caloundra to south the located of Aura estates larger the that expected is It centre. aregional for opportunity unbelievable an is States to United the fastest second the and to Asia Australia’s fastest telecommunications connection Providing beautifully. in dovetailing project Cable Sunshine Coast International Broadband Submarine the with along moving have been expansions Maroochydore CBD and Sunshine Coast Airport The to coast. the investment new attract should underway projects infrastructure massive The Tailwinds -Positives Aura, Caloundra
Source: realestate.com.au just have to wait and see. have to and wait just We will 24 months. past the in achieved levels same to the not however maybe market residential the across activity good some to see expected is 2019 market. this target unit complexes under construction that directly new of number in the reflected been has units living to permanent swing This corporates. body low with complexes smaller within units style occupier owner- in of interest levels good are There area. Maroochydore the in particularly supply, in increase construction or proposed for 2019 which will see an under complexes of unit anumber are There dollar. Aussie weak of the back the on void the of some fill have helped buyers international and ex-pat some that advised we have been Anecdotally to slow. continue these as markets Melbourne of and Sydney confidence the the prestige Noosa market is heavily impacted by However, to watch area as an may be this 2018. in sales record of some back the on 2019 throughout Second Range Crossing road construction expected infrastructure projects including the Toowoomba major for ahub Toowoomba currently is 2019. throughout to continue expected is This types. property specific and suburbs well-performing establish to difficult it making interest buyer and prices sale in variations with consistency little been has There specific. property and multi-speed to be continued has market the board, the across steady been has activity sales Although 2015. to mid 2014 from period boom the sales activity and some value stabilisation following of levels 2017, slowing and with 2016 in trends the of acontinuation saw 2018 Toowoomba market. the for year interesting an as looms 2019 Darling Downs/Toowoomba Month in Review in Month February 2019 45
RESIDENTIAL dwellings from owner-occupiers as affordability affordability as owner-occupiers from dwellings for interest enhanced with 2019 in to continue expected is stabilisation This towns. of these each in witnessed to trends the contributing now are factors employment local such, as and with their predominantly rural-based economies, aligned more are to which have levels reverted phase of These the towns mining gas and boom. board following the decline of the construction have experienced significant declines across the Basin Surat the towns within of Toowoomba, West projects. respective their in interest to attract incentives buyer at look to starting are Developers plan. the off out sold often projects when years to recent compared slow, especially very are estates housing new in rates land for size. in Sales metres square 500 than less lots for enquiry buyer local limited and demand investor of reduced as a result significantly slowed has land vacant for Demand Westbrook. and Cambooya Highfields, Kleinton, Torrington, Hills, Cotswold of Glenvale, suburbs the included housing new for areas key development The continue throughout 2019. the construction processes. This is expected to through Toowoomba area the in living employees many with rates low vacancy holding in assisted to have believed are projects infrastructure These Project. Rail Inland the be will Toowoomba area the extension. Also in the benefiting imminent pipeline Centre Shopping Central Grand of QIC’s completion recent the and year this early completed to be infrastructure projects. infrastructure major for hub a Toowoomba is currently
term including Rookwood Weir, the Rockhampton Weir, Rockhampton the Rookwood including term due to start construction in the short to medium are projects infrastructure of new A number Rockhampton region. the for year asolid to be potential the all has 2019 Rockhampton however, wrong. proven to be happy be We would, levels. activity and price of median terms in now we are where below alittle 2019 end We may even soft. fairly being results other and results good some of patchy markets, conditions 2018-like with same of the more is guess best Our in general. property for sentiment anegative and credit tighter states, southern the in markets falling with view counter strong have afairly pessimists the Unfortunately, years. three previous of the stagnation of the out market our driving here, up available returns strong and value great the discovering to mid-2000s, early wave the in as cyclical counter a and buyers of southern areturn with year our be might 2019 hoping still are us amongst optimists The bring. might 2019 what about Early January is quiet with most people concerned aroar. than of awhimper more with ended property in year the and Queensland Far in early North came rain Wet season Cairns movement in rental values. to positive leading enjoyed being rate currently occupancy astrong with of stabilisation signs good showing is Dalby while to continue, appears pressure downward and inactive relatively is market Roma sector. the The on pressure downward to place continue will which market unit the in situation supply over asignificant and returned has focus with the lease changing hands to an to an hands changing lease the with focus renewed provided also has Island Keppel Great 2018. in period active an after 2019 in sporadic to be expected is $750,000) over points (price market prestige coastal The cost of construction on such sites. the extent, to alesser and allotment asloping on living of practicality the from arising difficulties the given to slow sell to remain expected are allotments vacant sloping Steeply properties. well-located and well-presented very for noted rises price modest some with 2018, in to hold take started really which activity market of improved a continuation to see expected is 2019 Coast, Capricorn the On trend. this to continue expected is and few years past over the consistent reasonably remained has market local of our end upper The buyershome active becoming also. first more may see increases rent These to cool. starting now are markets southern major the given become more enticing to investors, particularly will sector this by tenants, accepted to be starting increases rent week per to $30 $20 reporting agents some and rates tightening vacancy with however time, some for sluggish been has sector This (up market of the to $250,000). end lower the to be expected are to watch 2019 in sectors The ahead. year the in market property the for start asound cent) provides per three and two (currently between market rental of the trend tightening consistent the and 2018 throughout together with the stabilisation of the market This, employment. including of sectors, a number anticipated to provide an economic benefit across is project Levy. Each Flood Rockhampton South the and Gracemere and Rockhampton between Highway Capricorn of the duplication Road, Ring Month in Review in Month February 2019 46
RESIDENTIAL after a period of decline over the past few years. past over the of decline aperiod after end before year’s market property on the influence apositive providing factors of these a number to seeing forward looking doubt We without are 2019. of course the for stagnant remain would markets local our for, that anticipated is searching it provide the economic boost the region has been to forecast any projects in adelay be there Should project. any for major dates start delay to havepotential the all events severe weather and climate economic greater the elections, Funding, ground. the in shovels and approval between road long avery become can it Adani, as such projects major other with we have seen As local economy. to avibrant link missing our to be appears this as employment to boost projects infrastructure major for pushing been has now, region the time some For market. quite property the have on will this effect what and expected as to fruition come not or delayed may become projects (or of these all) some that risk the to consider prudent it’s course, Of cent. per two and one between at sitting currently months, twelve in point lowest their at are Coast Capricorn the rates on Further, available. vacancy stock limited many reporting with market in the confidence in increase an is there that acknowledge agents Local construction in late 2019. to start plans and investor international that all market sectors will have shown signs signs have shown will sectors market all that year, of the end the we By predict ahead. year the for predicted growth capital slow with region Gladstone the in market residential the for year last from continuation agradual to be likely is 2019 Gladstone for the Mackay residential market. residential Mackay the for ahead year the on predictions our give we will mind, in that With ahead. to year the forward looking are and break Christmas afantastic had readers Mackay avid our all We hope to 2019! Welcome Mackay market. the into back investors may bring loans investment on by APRA of regulations lifting recent however the to impact, have an continue will market of the end The increased scrutiny by in lenders the lower 2019. in continue will this forecast residential estates exceeding expectations. We rural and estates new both in homes of new the opposite in vacant land sales, with construction quite and market of the end lower established the in values in asoftening saw of 2018 part latter The Bundaberg demand. We expect to see more of this in 2019. in of this more to see We expect demand. current the suit which lots to create larger allotments smaller more or two combining of developers trend arecent We have seen Gladstone. in lots of small oversupply an still is There demand. greatest in are allotments plus metre square 800 level, Near lots. future for stages planning early in are of developers number however a stable, remain should land of vacant supply The businesses. and tradespersons local for employment steady to provide continue will and ongoing to be expected is residents local mostly vacancy rates. The construction of new homes for in trend of adownward back the on increase to incrementally to levels continue rental We expect increases across 2019. value further see likely we will and affordability by driven being still is market of recovery. The 1. of: effect two-fold have the will which rentals, weekly in increases see will market rental of the tightening The region. move to Mackay the people many seen levels) time has to boom (compared rentals and of housing cost cheaper (relativelywith speaking) increased coupled employment opportunities, These Basin. Bowen adjoining the and Mackay throughout projects infrastructure and sector to resource related the opportunities employment in slowdown no to be appears There 2018. from momentum throughout 2019, following through its continue will market residential the We think into 2019? heading us leave that does where So, the Mackay residential market. for year apositive considered was 2018 all, in All demand. rental to values start increase due to the increased We saw Queensland. regional in lowest the cent, per one below falling rates, of vacancy tightening asignificant we saw market, rental the On growth. capital modest and sale for listed time decreasing market, residential of the witnessed increased demand across most sectors We sentiment. market positive amore and growth which increased caused employment, population increasedsector and large infrastructure projects resource to abuoyant due momentum gain market residential the we saw 2018, economy. During residential market property but the general Mackay the for only not point, a turning definitely was 2018 past. the by analysing are events future for indications best the Well, hold? future the does what So, capital growth; and growth; capital for potential and yields increasing on based investorsBringing back into the Mackay market market Mackay into the Month in Review in Month February 2019 47
RESIDENTIAL and 2017, that makes a refreshing change! 2017, arefreshing makes and that 2013 between we experienced downturn the after and ahead year the about optimistic We quite are ledger. of the side positive the on momentum the all with market, residential and economy general the in both sentiment, in shift adefinite is there moment, At the estate. real in thing afunny is Momentum extent. the predicting is part difficult The values. market and values rental both in predicted growth with 2019 during to strength strength from go will market residential Mackay the we think coal), (metallurgical export valuable most our for market the and trade world with associated Notwithstanding any major economic crisis 2. short term. short the in sell these quickly how to see interesting be will it so estates of land balance and in-fill with Bay Hervey in rising to be appears land vacant of supply The growth. capital this limit can which strong to however remain likely is buyers attract to estates between Competition levels. year’s last from of lifting signs showing prices package some with balanced fairly to remain expected is packages land and house for demand and Supply returns. stable generally and growth capital slow with Coast Fraser the on market residential the for year last from continuation agradual to be likely is 2019 Bay Hervey more difficult secure. to difficult more become and increase of rents cost as purchases demand Increasing to strength during 2019. during strength to We think the Mackay residential market will go from strength for owner-occupier owner-occupier for labour shortage. skilled ahigh to be continues there as elsewhere from workers poach or to attract and workforce maintain to in efforts workers to benefit change conditions working and rise wages We seeing are again. up to pop starting mines new expansions, closed mines reopening and proposed an increased workforce through current mine to demand continues sector resource The 2019. throughout to firm continue general in region Highlands Central the and Emerald see We should Emerald periods so buyers are active. are buyers so periods selling to month two one achieving is appropriately priced property term, short the In attractive. are investors for returns and stock new limited very is there as improvement some may see prices Unit area. the to relocating providers health allied and facilities expected to continue with the expansion of medical is over $500,000 of dwellings of sales increase The businesses. and tradespersons local for employment steady to provide continue will and ongoing to be homes for mostly local residents is expected release each stage. The construction of new developers which at time the and of lots volume the on depend will however this oversupply of arisk is There levels. to supply due months twelve past over the improvement some after to stabilise going potentially are prices Land
vacancies and the coal price remaining high. high. remaining price coal the and vacancies job to fill to continue found be can workforce skilled the quickly how on depend largely will values in construction increasing. The level of increase housing new rate and low vacancy our with values property on impact apositive having all is This Month in Review in Month February 2019 48
RESIDENTIAL Month in Review South Australia February 2019
Adelaide the Adelaide foothills whilst being serviced by the beach. A recent example of a sale at this Negative market hysteria has been a cause of Tea Tree Plaza and the Hope Valley shopping price point is 1B Rugby Street, Dover Gardens at concern for many South Australian property centre. Hope Valley has a current median house $470,000. This is a circa 2016 semi-detached owners over the past six months. The east-coast- price of $397,500 and provides a more affordable dwelling disposed as three bedrooms and two dominated media attention around the state price point than neighbouring Dernancourt and bathrooms on a 262 square metre allotment. of the market has been hard to avoid for South Highbury. An example of what can be purchased Australians. The positive for South Australia is at this price point is 13 Citrine Street, Hope Valley that we haven’t had the significant highs, which which has an asking price range of $395,000 to should shelter the market from major downward $415,000. This is a well-kept original 1980s home, pressures. providing three bedrooms and one bathroom on a 600 square metre allotment. Agents have been reporting a reduction in open inspection viewings. The consensus is for properties which would have had 50 groups through in mid 2018 are now having 20 groups through. This coupled with the downward trend in clearance rates provides a good indication of the current demand 1B Rugby Street Dover Gardens Source: realestate.com.au RESIDENTIAL in the market. This trend is common over the peak summer months, however could be being doubled down by the tighter lending conditions. The 2019 Ingle Farm is located 14 kilometres north of the first quarter data will be telling in how we will track Adelaide CBD and is characterised by 1960s and for the remainder of the year. 1970s brick dwellings on 500 to 800 square metre allotments. In recent years there has been a move Suburbs in the middle ring with price points 13 Citrine Street Hope Valley Source: realestate.com.au towards higher density living within Ingle Farm with of $300,000 to $500,000 will be the ones to infill development beginning to occur. The suburb watch throughout 2019. These suburbs provide Located 14 kilometres south of the Adelaide is serviced by the Ingle Farm Shopping Centre and affordability for first home buyers and also a price CBD is Dover Gardens which provides a mixture provides an abundance of parks and reserves. point for cashed up investors who are not having of 1950s dwellings with an abundance of recent Ingle Farm has a median house price of $334,000 to rely solely on a lending institution. Fitting this higher density infill development. Dover Gardens which is one of the most affordable price points profile are the suburbs of Hope Valley, Dover is serviced by Marion Shopping Centre and the within the middle ring north of the CBD. The recent Gardens and Ingle Farm. South Australian Aquatic Centre and is located sale of 15 Stuart Avenue, Ingle Farm at $324,000 Hope Valley is located 16 kilometres north-east within 1.5 kilometres of Brighton Beach. Dover provides an indication of what can be purchased at of the Adelaide CBD. This suburb is characterised Gardens has a median house price of $470,000 this price point. This is a traditional 1970s home by 1950s to 1970s brick dwellings on 700 square providing it with a more affordable price point which has been well kept and provides original metre allotments. Hope Valley has proximity to than those suburbs immediately adjacent to fixtures and fittings.
49 sharp increase in both the prices being paid for for paid being prices the both in increase sharp development. The zoning changes produced a residential density rates medium for approval had one of the highest development application has Council Campbelltown the years, recent In Barker. Mount and Adelaide Port area, Council Campbelltown the are to watch 2019 in areas Other 2019. in may soften market this that indication an provides clearance in reduction the with coupled This finance. arranging in difficulty indicating purchasers potential many with have reduced auctions at numbers that have indicated Agents to have increased reliance institutions. on lending borrowers requires point price This million. $1 low to of $700,000 point have aprice typically suburbs These 2019. in caution some with treated be should by auction sold of properties volumes larger seen have traditionally which suburbs ring inner The 15 Stuart Avenue Ingle Farm Ingle Avenue Stuart 15 Farm Ingle Avenue Stuart 15 Source: realestate.com.au Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic Source: announced a millionannounced $30 gas mains pipeline has Network Gas Australian The facilities. and services metropolitan typical the all with setting Freeway, acountry Eastern provides suburb the South- the via accessed and CBD the from kilometres 40 Located Australia. South in suburbs growing fastest of the one is Barker Mount Rosewater, Ethelton, Glanville and Queenstown. Exeter, of suburbs surrounding of the profile the increase helping on toeffect, have aflow expected construction. The rejuvenation of Port Adelaide is under is which Shipyard Naval Osborne the supporting hub aresidential as act will area The Port. of the heart the in up popping restaurants and renovated being buildings of historic a number with occur to began gentrification SA, of Renewal backing the With 2018. throughout traction to gain began Adelaide Port doldrums, the in years After are ranging between $500,000 and $700,000. $700,000. and $500,000 between ranging are homes traditional whilst $600,000, and $450,000 between for purchased be can townhouses Currently area. council the within townhouses and sites development in asoftening to cause expected is This constructed. being of townhouses number the to metres combat square to metres 250 square process of increasing minimum land areas from 150 the in now is council The constructed. being of townhouses number the and homes traditional Campbelltown Townhouses
Source: realestate.com.au the abundance of available land in the region. region. the in land of available abundance the given advised is however caution strong remained has region this in homes new for Demand $600,000. and $350,000 between for purchase for available builds new with development each within fluctuate Prices 2019. early in construction to begin expects and hub sporting million $38 a announced has council local the whilst area growing the to service Adelaide metro from which does impact on growth in the region. the in growth on impact does which sale, for land and of housing supply alarge still is increased slightly in recent years, however there has price housing median The 2019. throughout continue will trend this that expected is it and 2014 since have they been to levels where similar were at 2018 for sales house below, graph the in seen As economy and the property sector. local on the impact have asignificant will that year. indicators aware of any obvious We not are housing market will remain stable throughout the the that is 2019 for outlook the Gambier, For Mount Gambier Mount of 2019. remainder the for heading we are of where indication an provide will which data quarter’s first the await eagerly will to year, the we start asluggish With into. peered been has ball crystal The we have there it. So, Mount Barker Development
Source: realestate.com.au Month in Review in Month February 2019 50
RESIDENTIAL appeal to families and first home buyers and and buyers home first and to families appeal range this within houses The occurring. are sales of number most the where it’s and affordable is range price to $250,000 $200,000 The sales above $500,000. house afew to more see we if start or to increase continue range this within sales if to year see this to watch something may be This ten years. past the in have they been highest the now range this within sales with then, since sales in increase a steady been has however there 2011, and 2009 between drop asignificant was There ten years. past the for range price to $500,000 $400,000 the within sales of house number the shows graph next The
Source: RP Data Data RP Source: Data RP Source: local market. in the fluctuations major no with year to last similar fairly to year be this expecting we are Overall, negatively on the property market. regions that decreases in employment will impact these in shown has History employment. local on dependent are they as caution with treated be therefore towns should These of industries. number asmall on reliant heavily towns are regional Small metres. square 200 of around allotment asmall on situated house or unit one-bathroom two-bedroom, asmall you get generally will $250,000 where Adelaide, as such cities other to compared affordable is This metres. square to 800 600 on situated area, apergola and agarage bathrooms, two or one bedrooms, four or three including quality, of good generally are Month in Review in Month February 2019 51
RESIDENTIAL Month in Review Tasmania February 2019
Hobart and Launceston 2019 but certainly positive with regard to pricing. While Hobart remained strong in 2018, there is Double digit growth might be a bit optimistic but we evidence that the historic high levels of growth are expecting in the five to ten per cent. are slowing. The north-west coast has its own economic We saw eight per cent growth in 2018 compared challenges and in some regions continues to with around 13 per cent in 2017 (admittedly off a struggle. We are expecting Devonport to continue lower base). Tightening of lending requirements with the momentum of 2018. Burnie has no doubt appears to be biting in the investment market turned the corner and the upper end has shown with our own in-house observations noting a fall in some recent activity, however we are predicting interstate buyers. softer growth for 2019. The inner-city suburbs that led the charge from The areas to watch for 2019? Look out for the 2016 to 2018 appear to be flattening in price coastal towns especially those that offer medical growth however those in the middle (such as or close by medical facilities such as St Helens Claremont) to outer ring (such as Brighton) (has medical facilities) and Orford (one hour from continue the march forward as they are at a more Hobart). We are expecting to see the sea-change affordable price point. effect to continue, especially from Queensland, as RESIDENTIAL buyers seek to relocate to a milder climate. Cashing Simply due to the strength in the local economy, in the family home, buying a very nice holding on population growth, near nil vacancy rates in the the Tassie coast and having dollars left over in the rental market and ongoing housing shortage, bank to play with - what more could you want? we feel that 2019 will deliver softer growth and perhaps a less active market in Hobart but certainly Wishing all our readers the best for 2019. we remain positive with regard to overall pricing. In the north of the state, it would appear that
Launceston is about twelve months behind the Hobart market. 2018 was this city’s standout year (not 2017). Again, for all the same reasons stated above we are expecting Launceston to be softer in
Cashing in the family home, buying a very nice holding on the Tassie coast and having dollars left over in the bank to play with - what more could you want?
52 Month in Review Northern Territory February 2019
Darwin The most important aspect at this point in time development projects To echo the comments of our Director, Terry and when faced with a market such as this is to underway which will Roth, in this month’s commercial column, due to do your homework. It’s most certainly a buyer’s further saturate the 9.4% the Territory’s current financial position, tough market considering where the market was at during market. House prices decline in expenditure decisions are going to have an impact on the peak of 2014. Consider your own personal remain steady, with transaction all aspects of the economy – the residential property circumstances, do the market research and be some encouraging numbers for the market is unlikely to show much growth under realistic in your expectations for capital growth. sales pointing towards these conditions and, critically, sentiment will likely You are unlikely to yield much growth in the short a levelling out of the quarter to remain weak across many aspects of the economy. to medium term. recent declining market. 31 December from the The residential property market is likely to track Alice Springs As locals return from previous quarter in a similar state to that experienced through the their Christmas breaks The residential market in Alice Springs is generally back end of 2018. What we have seen is fluctuating and settle in to another more active over the spring and summer period, transaction numbers month to month with limited year, it is expected that activity will ramp up in the however overall sales activity for the quarter to 31 to no capital growth. residential market although it remains to be seen December 2018 did see a decline of 9.4 per cent what negative outcomes there might be from banks An analysis of month to month figures can be in transaction numbers from the previous quarter. reviewing their lending policies in the wake of the somewhat deceptive, potentially showing only Demand continues to be somewhat soft and the RESIDENTIAL Banking Royal Commission. seasonal changes, rather than whole market market historically quietens from early to mid- movements. Critically important to monitoring December through until late January when people change in the market is the year-on-year results begin returning to town, preparing for the new that provide a greater degree of comparability, year. The searing heat may also deter people from having a larger sample from which to draw leaving their air-conditioned sanctuaries in search conclusions. Yes, a recovery is generally shown of new abodes. Relocations and defence force in the first instance by a greater number of postings are common in January and it is expected transactions occurring in a given period and that’s that the current quarter will show an increase in what makes predicting the peaks and troughs of the activity. property market difficult. The market has shown mixed results in recent In the case of the Darwin residential market, there months, which is likely to continue. The Old East appears to be some reluctance on the part of Side market has been less active, with Gillen and prospective purchasers to buy now, for fear we rural residential properties proving popular with have not reached the bottom – typically this can purchasers. only really be determined in retrospect. By the time Units continue to be generally soft, with an you’ve realised the market has bottomed out, it’s abundance of stock on the market and a number of already shifted.
53 Month in Review Western Australia February 2019
Perth per cent in the September 2018 quarter. That is a coupled with constant supply driven by government With 2018 behind us we can focus on what the 1.2 per cent decrease compared to the June 2018 and private sector incentives and once-in-a- new year has in store for Perth. For the past few quarter. The average loan size has also reduced 4.6 generation low pricing on land and construction years, stories have been told of both significant per cent to $339,943, likely due to low consumer costs is driving values downwards. gains and significant losses and we are possibly confidence, tight restrictions on finance and It’s not all bad news for these areas though. Rental writing a similar narrative in 2019, just with a Western Australia’s high proportion of first home prices have not declined at the same rate as house touch more confidence this time around. We are buyer activity. Damian Collins said: “By comparison, values and this is producing very lucrative yields. currently running on a two-speed property cycle in New South Wales, the proportion of income Our research shows that gross yields are drifting with vast differences between Perth’s inner and required to meet loan repayments is 36.6 per towards seven per cent in some areas. Mix this outer suburbs. cent, while the average loan amount is $469,589 with the current affordability of housing around – significantly higher than Western Australia. In The median house price in Perth increased 5.2 per Perth and it creates a real opportunity for investors addition, Western Australia continues to have cent to $510,000 during the February 2019 quarter. to re-enter the market. On top of this, the recent the highest proportion of first home buyers in its Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) changes to lending criteria is going some way owner-occupier market at 35.1 per cent, compared President Damian Collins’s outlook for 2019 is towards freeing up the availability of finance as to 23.2 per cent in New South Wales.” stated as follows: “While we don’t expect to see rapid growth in the Perth property market in 2019, RESIDENTIAL REIWA’s outlook suggests sales volumes could We are currently running on a two-speed property cycle with start to increase this year. With house prices in vast differences between Perth’s inner and outer suburbs. Perth remaining relatively affordable and consumer confidence levels on the incline, this could translate As shown on the Herron Todd White Property Clock, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority into increased activity in 2019.” Perth Inner is currently situated at the bottom of (APRA) has removed the cap on interest-only loans REIWA statistics show that Perth’s median unit the market cycle and arguably moving much closer for residential property. This was long overdue for price settled at $385,000 for the December towards the start of recovery. This has been the struggling markets such as Perth and hopefully quarter – down 1.3 per cent from September. case going as far back as 2016 in some localities in the future we see a targeted, state-to-state Suburbs that saw big increases in the median as the prestige and upgrader market has been a approach to lending criteria instead of the current price of units were Mount Lawley, Yokine, West strong performer. This has kept Perth’s median national blanket approach which helps some states Leederville, Victoria Park and Mandurah. house price afloat over the past three years. but hinders others. Perth is currently the most affordable city for Perth Outer, however, is still on the decline. First Perth has seen a stable median rental price for housing in Australia according to a new study by home buyer locations suffering from chronic more than five quarters now, however the median the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA). The oversupply are continuing to struggle. Suburbs house rental (not including units) has actually REIA recently released a report outlining that such as Ellenbrook, Baldivis, Alkimos, Byford and risen through the February 2019 quarter to $360 Western Australia’s average proportion of income Wellard aren’t being given any breathing space. A per week. This is a good sign for things to come required to meet loan repayments improved to 22.7 lack of demand as a result of population reduction and an indicator that population growth may be
54 within the coming years. activity construction in increase an we may see way, under well being project ore iron Flank South billion $4.8 BHP’s and occurring announcements project industry of resource anumber With commencements. dwelling sector private and sector mining the in expenditure our between years over two of just period average an shows figures two of the troughs and peaks the see, can we As commencements. dwelling and expenditure exploration mineral Australia’s Western between relationship the shows above graph The commencements significantly. future,near which should also increase dwelling in the figures migration net Australia’s to Western aboost may give workers skilled for demand This few years. next over the opportunities employment 20,000 securing to be claimed also has sector increase in for demand housing”. The resources an for catalyst the be could 2019, in government Federal State by and both policies immigration to changes with along 2018, in introduced was that list Migration Skilled Graduate and Strategy State“the Government’s International Education said, University Curtin at Property and Finance of Economics, School the in Lecturer Senior and Researcher Property Ho, J-Han Mr rise. the on Figure 1 - WA Dwelling Commencements and Mineral Exploration Expenditure Expenditure Exploration Mineral and Commencements 1-WA Dwelling Figure Source: UDIA, 2019 UDIA, Source: investment and interest only lending freeing up up freeing lending only interest and investment surrounding criteria to lending changes APRA the with coincide will This decisions. purchase making in confident more become will they out, bottomed has market the that understand to begin consumers As optimism. cautious is suburbs inner for message The locations. superior in money for value good see they and slightly recovered or out bottomed has dwelling existing of their value the that understand upgraders the cases, many In location. superior to a residence existing to their move from opportunity the identifying buyers by upgrade driven rebound cautious and aslow continue will and market of the bottom the passed has inner Perth to widen. continue will suburbs outer the versus suburbs inner the in creation wealth therefore and growth value between gap the that concerned To currently we are summarise, this caution. with align predictions our and months twelve next over the recovery of arapid expectations against recovery.” aid However,and REIWA cautions housing for demand improve growth, population to support continue should which jobs, local of new to create thousands expected are projects These long way to restoring confidence in these regions. a going projects mining new the to with watch, areas are Kalgoorlie and Karratha Hedland, “Port that recently said Collins Damian of this. result adirect as demand improved to see we hope and in the resources sector has increased significantly conditions for some regional centres. Investment market improving to see we expect 2019, In only extend the negative impact on values. will to oversupply this adding and suburbs newer Perth’s in market the on available land vacant of abundance an still is there as though, around time this cautious more alittle may be Developers economy as awhole. as economy and market Perth the in growth for time the being to year, the 2020 with beginning stagnant a fairly have we will that show predictions our now for but Perth, for bring will year this what to see interesting be will It move. their made have already of whom is the smart money, early decision makers, most key market this in The attractive. very look yields have made decreases value capital the income, of rental certainty rate and vacancy a decreasing with Coupled prices. low record at to buy able being excited about get should investors criteria, lending to changes APRA the With of suburbs. range wide a across demonstrated increases slight with out to have bottomed look Perth across Rents market. rental the in rebound of the commencement clear the is market the for news positive best The growth. wage and employment with rise figures migration net Australia’s Western until market this in change much see We shouldn’t suburbs. new particular in and of outer number alarge in day every downwards drifting prices economic forces, our valuers continue to see home of current aresult As 2019. throughout traction for to struggle continue will suburbs outer The the past six months. over market tight avery been has what in liquidity Month in Review in Month February 2019 55
RESIDENTIAL Rural February 2019 accommodate you. love to we would available places are there if and [email protected] contact please event, either attending in interested are however you if list, our on to those issued year. have been Invitations current the in to see we expect of what view our provide and out closed year 2018 the how at to look 1March on Brisbane and 26 February on Melbourne review in market land rural annual our deliver we will waves fade, good and beaches of memories and off kicks year 2019 the As interestingbe to in observe the coming months. will support of such terms the and finance carry-on require who those for support Financier market. the to of property supply may bring which pressures financial other cause could tough it doing currently regions Victorian and Wales South arow New in in years two rain no side; buy the on activity market possibly and increased see some would support conditions seasonal to sound Areturn 2019. in market land rural the to influence factor biggest the be my in opinion, will, months two next the in Rain this season. of part early the may eventuate in rainfall what see to skies towards the looking are majority the sure Iam and readers our to year all new ahappy is It Overview in the current year. current the in occur to see we expect of what view our provide and out closed year To 2018 the how at look Brisbane: Melbourne: REVIEW MARKET LAND ANNUAL RURAL 1st March 26th February for sale in the traditional flood free plateau areas areas plateau free flood traditional the in sale for macadamias planting for suited land vacant and farms of macadamia supply limited The purchasers. sale and apparent continued strong demand from for farms of macadamia few listings very are There for has eliminated. macadamias been tariff cent per 10 final the 2019, of 1January as that we understand and 2015 since to China exported macadamias on tariffs reduced progressively has Free Australia (ChAFTA) Tradeand Agreement China the that noted is it although price harvest 2019 the in softening aslight may be there suggests pricing from local processors. Anecdotal evidence harvest 2019 the awaiting eagerly be will Growers demand. Chinese of strong result a is degree, to asignificant which, price commodity of astrong back the off years recent in strong very been has industry farm tree nut macadamia The NSW Coast North Tim Lane Ph: 0401 998 648 998 0401 Ph: Lane Tim Contact: areview. worth well are that month this observations some has team however the of year time the given to report sales of new a lot not are there activity, market current the for As Macadamia Orchid
Source: Herron Todd White White Todd Herron Source: Paul O’Keeffe Ph: 0409 763 573 0409 Ph: O’Keeffe Paul Contact: prices. commodity and access market on agreements trade of the impacts the closely watching be doubt no will dairy and beef avocados, All local agricultural industries including blueberries, producers. sugar local for effects positive some may have this and 2018 December 30 on into effect came agreement trade free (CPTPP) Partnership Trans-Pacific Progressive and Comprehensive The of 2018. lows the from increase an is which pound per cents 13.1 US around currently is price sugar sugar. world The Indian of subsidised aresult part in depressed, been has price sugar world the as farmers macadamia with compete to difficult it have found farmers cane Sugar trees. nut macadamia plant to farms cane sugar plain flood purchasing farmers of macadamia trend continuing the see likely will megalitre, which is a pretty attractive price. attractive apretty is which megalitre, per $140 and $45 between at fluctuating been water had temporary of leasing cost the 2018, of middle the until Up be. water will of leasing cost the what wondering and water budgets their at nervously looking are producers and water security to irrigation respect with vulnerable However, currently is region the continue their improvement in the coming season. to expected also are prices grape Wine almonds. and grapes table citrus, for prices commodity strong of years successive four in result would which 2019, that these conditions won’t continue throughout to suggest nothing is There producers. horticultural local of most faces the on smiles keeping are markets export Asian from demand good and rate exchange acompetitive rates, Low interest Mildura Month in Review in Month February 2019 57
RURAL above previous levels. previous above well at area Milparinga the in hectares) 73,550 (approximately Station Moorabie and Hill Broken of south just 75,700 hectares) (approximately Station of Netley sales reported the with along Ivanhoe, and Wilcannia between Station Rosewood including Australia, South outback and Wales South of New Division Western the across 2018 not waned, with some strong sales recorded in late has holdings pastoral and rural for demand The offered for sale. to be expected of properties number a limited only with land, cropping and grazing both for continue demand solid to see we expect conditions, dry very currently the Despite benefit. the enjoy to rainfall average least at require producers however many strong, to remain forecast are pastoral and cropping sectors. Commodity prices the in to out play expected is theme A similar year. coming the during average below or above is areas catchment the in rainfall whether on hinge will Much sites. development greenfield for also lower,are margins and profit sector, where grape wine the feltin be likely will impact biggest The irrigation properties. of any purchase considering when cautious more becoming buyers to see expect We also expansion. reduce enthusiasm for anyone contemplating will however it producers, most for affordable cost to this make expected are received being Fortunately, the strong commodity prices region rely to some degree on leased water. our in irrigators of larger majority higher. The go could cost this 2019, in low stay water allocations if that concerns are there dry, very catchment the with and megalitre per to $430 escalated quickly has cost this six months, past the In Lessons have been learnt about grass budgeting budgeting grass about learnt have been Lessons reserve. in grass little is there 2013 since conditions Having inferior endured varying seasonal Queensland. West North and North in management of risk evolution positive the shows This were made. proactive risk management and hard decisions horizon, the on appeared wet season uncertain an of threat the As of stock. down sell their planning started graziers western month, last the In luck. such no been had there west, Further of rain. falls earlier some enjoyed Towers already had (andCharters to north) the ball. to up play Trough turned Monsoon the Carnival, Cricket Ashes Towers Goldfield 2019 the for Charters at up faced True Batters the as to form, North-West and North Queensland Graeme Whyte Ph: 0427 210466 0427 Ph: Whyte Graeme Contact: continue throughout 2019. to expected is demand this and pastoralists, existing and institutions families, Australian including of investors avariety from interest strong to generate continues conditions, dry current the even during property, rural that report Agents million. $40 to close at basis awalk-in-walk-out on to have sold kilometres north-east of Adelaide and is reported 820 Track about Birdsville the on located hectares, million 1.65 comprises property The operators. based Springs Alice by well-known purchased been has which Creek), Anna (behind Australia in Station, regarded as the second largest holding Hills of Clifton that is 2018 December in region pastoral Australian South in the sale A significant money in the bank. have become early down sold have that been cattle to recover. have achance will country Also, the then arrives, alate wet If season management. risk smart is This gloom. and doom not is This possible. as quick as is recovery heard ensure to country on kept have been cattle into what gone has selection Careful livestock. selling short and appears positive for those landholders. of level intensity that at investment on return The type. country with accordance in paddocks larger the of split second or first that for typically is This costs. to operating lower investment and management type land for are programs fencing for goals Common sign and a demonstration of industry confidence. apositive is really This districts. north-western the in particularly underway, are water improvements and yards cattle new Fencing, occurring. development of infrastructure amount asurprising also is There so. or month another for start not will period marketing station cattle the Naturally, parameters. existing with line in and reasonable be to appears pricing dry, the Despite future. the for respective parties to restructure their businesses enable will This stations. of cattle anumber for negotiations and contracts being exchanged off-market are There of activity. levels surprising with off started has 2019 for market property The A dry landscape
Source: Herron Todd White White Todd Herron Source: Month in Review in Month February 2019 58
RURAL Roger Hill Ph: 07 4724 07 2000 Ph: Hill Roger Contact: ridges: the round markets property at Taking alook year. the through north-west and north move the favour to help in are way, keyEither two fundamentals these rate cycle. interest the in change of the start the may mark This areas. inland to rain widespread to deliver failed that cyclones two the from rain good some have had Queensland of North areas coastal the said, being That drought. of the as a result of foods farm inflation is for eye to an out keep thing one comment, aside As situation. this with out helping for cities capital in markets residential the in slumps You the thank owners. can property to northern of benefit rates are interest domestic low continued commodity pricing in the global marketplace. The competitive for good is dollar Australian low the at present. For an export orientated economy, low both rates are interest and dollar Australian year. this play at The fundamentals strong some are there years, recent in prices cattle in softening the Despite industry. the in sign positive only the not are programs development Capital future. excited are the for and returns superior reporting are managers condition land progressive The practices. management land poor for aid a band not are fences These area. fenced the within condition land the with consistent are investment on returns larger, The compounding areas. southern from investment on return regarding stories good many with development apositive certainly are These way region. into the its making is fencing Exclusion
to Mt Garnet) Mt to north Bellyando the (say from TowersCharters District Aramac say to south Prairie and to – Pentland Desert Uplands say Nelia – Hughenden to Frontage band Julia Creek) -(Hughenden to South of the line Frontage band the of North down to Boulia to down Western Gulf Carpentaria of Gulf Normanton / / Croydon Georgetown Season Burdekin Dam/Collinsville.Burdekin around rain Good rain. patchy some had have areas Southern two cyclones. the from to date rainfall better the had have areas Northern earlier in the season. fence) garden the at (stopped itself Prairie at fall strong far. so One falls patchy Very reduced. being far.so numbers Stock showers two or one Again, off. lightened being numbers Stock there. and here showers small very two or One Hughenden was welcome! was Hughenden of north to the rain Earlier in. are orders Rain clouds. some to see starting area Northern Burketown. of south grass good Some present. at Dry though to form starting are clouds cyclones, two the from start greatest the Not Property Clock Property quality country. strong for good 10 to 12 O’clock. O’clock. to 12 10 10 to 12 O’clock O’clock to 12 10 9 to 10 O’clock. 9 to 10 O’clock. 9 to 10 11 to 12 O’clock. to 12 11 11 to 12 O’clock. to 12 11 9 to 11 O’clock. 9 to 11 with demand demand with 12 O’clock. Comment back of the military acquisitions. the on demand increased for Potential active. are neighbours and Nearby pricing. market solid some seen has areas Basalt in activity market Recent Quiet achiever. Often overlooked. year goes in this region. region. this in goes year this how determine will two or month next the in falls rain what on Depending of use and increased value rates. value increased and use of to changes rise give may developments The materialising of irrigation the past year. in area Hughenden the in sales settled of number Good area. demand High Moderate to high demand area. demand to high Moderate this year. this determine market property activity will time on received being order rain the on Depending same. the Boulia and dry very been has Barkly The year. this areas these in demand healthy some be south, increases. demand There could down not and here up rains it When area. Tightly held. Tightly area. market driven investor demand, Strong Month in Review in Month February 2019 59
RURAL million ($355 per hectare) in mid-December. The The mid-December. in hectare) per ($355 million $3.8 for auction at in passed it after Homestead The to purchase of sale aware acontract also we are to Further south the strong. remaining are values land that indicating are which locality Roma the in sales pending aware of further are We areas. market most throughout strong remain Despite values the seasonal conditions, property highlights the present seasonal conditions. dry which sales store Roma the through were sold head 10,153 some sales, For mid-January the break. Christmas the after up opening to processors prior even Toowoomba markets and Roma the through going of cattle numbers large with numbers stock reduce to further opportunity the have taken producers many that mid-January in evident was It Shires. Quilpie and Balonne Maranoa, Murweh, of the likes the for of drought year sixth the be now will this Queensland, For western in many stress. crop of signs areshowing profiles moisture sub-optimal on planted crops and pastures off dried have again conditions westerly dry The reprieve. rainfall some bring would it hoping many for disappointment a was unfortunately Owen ex-Cyclone from system low-pressure The Queensland. of southern much for dry and hot been has of 2019 start The Downs Darling Open Downs
Source: Herron Todd White White Todd Herron Source: industry as awhole. as industry agriculture the within confidence buyer through assisted is demand values; driving undoubtedly are factors these demand, and of supply fundamentals simple the With listings. obtain to difficult it finding however are country seeking of buyers list a large have they indicating are agents Most volumes. sales weakening the is though trend notable most The year. of the part later towards the market the in were evident buyers Grass scale. seeking owners adjoining or by near either above to over pay and appeared market the instances, some In in trends. firming a reflected markets farming and grazing both across values 2018, ending year the for summary In demand for larger, well positioned holdings is strong. confidential however it does demonstrate that remain sale of the details The 2018. December 14 on closed that of interest by expressions offered of Tenterfield to east the aggregation 1402-hectare a of Isla, sale We aware of apending are between. far few are and holdings grazing scale of larger transactions area, England New Wales South New northern the Within acluster.within and a portion contained water, adequate fencing havingand reticulated cultivation opportunity of area asmall with Sandalwood block and Ironbark Box, Red containing Generally of Surat. south kilometres radial 50 aggregation about hectare (26,427 acre) a10,695 is holding
Stephen Cameron Ph: 0438 180 278 180 0438 Ph: Cameron Stephen Contact: to market. the offered being properties vendor anxious some for potential the has and effect haveopposite the likely will occur, not this season the in abreak should of improved seasonal conditions. Alternatively, back the on increase may also demand that likely also it’s that, saying In Queensland. western in of listings number the in increase an see we will likely it’s two, or month next the in received be rain good however should Mitchell, of say east country for steady remain will 2019 that expected it’s Overall market. of the interpretation to our a contradiction reflecting hence have transacted, that assets value of high number reduced the by created data, of the representation statistical a is which declined has value median the that however shows graph The 2012. were in they as low as now are rates sales that identifies graph The hectares. 1,000 above country for Birdsville to Valley through Brisbane the from Queensland southern within trends of sale agraph is Above
Source: Pricefinder Pricefinder Source: Month in Review in Month February 2019 60
RURAL severe droughts, Western Australia has reportedly reportedly has Australia Western severe droughts, from suffering are states eastern the Whilst Australia. Western in agriculture for year interesting another to up be shaping is 2019 Western Australia 075 906 0448 Ph: Shaw Angus Contact: many parts. in season average than drier the despite ahead year remain the most critical impacting factors for the prices commodity rates and interest in Movements growth. to static limited to experience likely is market grazing and cropping of the remainder the and base alow from to slightly improve envisaged are belt dairy southern deep the in Values of 2019. part later towards the values and competition soften to slightly expected is demand reduced tight, relatively remain should supply Whilst hands. changed having already stock farm A-grade of the much with property rural for demand aslower to see likely is ahead year The capital improvement. little with Beef, by Harmony held was it years two over cent the per eight of circa value in increase Fyans areal of Mt displayed re-sale the and months twelve previous the from trends value in improvement astrong displayed sales All million. Fyans $37 for Mount and million $15 for Lewana Fernleigh, Cairn Curran, Woolbrook, Mokanger/ of sale the included transactions These levels. transactions occurring at maintained strong value of large anumber with Australia, of South east south- and Victoria of western most in land rural for market strong acontinued displayed 2018 South AustraliaSouth East Western Victoria and
that along with good years, bad years can also also can years bad years, good with along that mindful be will purchasers sure howeversupply, I’m surpasses demand as strong to be likely are Values sectors. corporate and local the from both land for demand strong to see to continue likely we are year, agood have that had regions cropping the In mind. areof front pressures financial and future the over uncertainty as properties grazing for demand in areduction to see likely is situation political and agri-economic noted above of the result the 2019, In country. the across portfolios diversify demand has continued with investors looking to allowing for expansion opportunities. Corporate levels debt reduced and seasons growing average of above- anumber following purchasers local from Cropping regions continue to see strong demand industry in the past twelve months. the leave retire or farmers eight as many as seen south-west zones. Depleted bottom lines have and southern great of the much across stores feed diminished in resulted rainfall winter and autumn low and continued structure industry and over contracts Uncertainty industry. dairy Australia Western the for year tough another was 2018 goats. and cattle including live exports on other to may flow restrictions export sheep live the that mount fears as carefully situation the watching to be likely are pastoralists Northern bodies. industry with consultation in is which changes Stress Standards of Heat implementation proposed also has Water Resources of Department The months. summer hemisphere northern the during trading sheep live toafoot halt plans with continues matter export sheep live The billion$6.5 boost to the state economy. arecord in resulting prices grain high with together history, in crop grain largest second its experienced David Abel Ph: 0408 489 667 489 0408 Ph: Abel David Contact: operational efficiencies. and productivity to aview with improving 2019 in infrastructure farm and improvement land in investment in increase an to see likely We also are of property. acquisition the in fundamental to be continues returns average and land in investment between link the therefore and happen
Month in Review in Month February 2019 61
RURAL Property Market Indicators February 2019 Month in Review February 2019
Capital City Property Market Indicators - Houses Capital City Property Market Indicators – Houses
Factor Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra
Shortage of Over-supply of Severe shortage of Over-supply of Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property available property Balanced market Balanced market available property available property Balanced market relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Tightening Steady Steady Steady
Demand for New Houses Fair Fair Strong Fair Soft Strong Soft Strong
Trend in New House Construction Declining Steady Steady Increasing Steady Steady Declining Increasing
Volume of House Sales Declining Increasing Steady Steady Steady Steady Declining Increasing
Approaching peak Approaching peak Stage of Property Cycle Declining market Declining market Rising market Bottom of market Bottom of market Rising market of market of market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Houses
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 5 Very Soft Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Approaching Peak 4 6 Soft4
Declining Market5
3 Steady Fair3 Approaching Bottom4
2 3 Tightening 2 Rising Market Strong
2
1 Tightening Sharply Bottom of Market 1 1 Very1 Strong Start of Recovery
0 0 0
Perth Perth Perth Sydney Hobart Darwin Sydney Hobart Darwin Sydney Hobart Darwin Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne Month in Review February 2019
Capital City Property Market Indicators - Units Capital City Property Market Indicators – Units
Factor Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra
Shortage of Over-supply of Over-supply of Severe shortage of Large over-supply Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property available property Balanced market available property available property of available property Balanced market relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady
Demand for New Units Soft Soft - Fair Soft Fair Soft Strong Soft Fair
Trend in New Unit Construction Declining Declining Steady Increasing Declining Steady Steady Increasing
Volume of Unit Sales Declining Steady Declining Steady Declining Steady Declining Declining
Approaching bottom Approaching peak Stage of Property Cycle Declining market Declining market Start of recovery Declining market Bottom of market Declining market of market of market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Frequently Occasionally Very frequently Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Frequently Exceeding Their Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Units
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing harply 8 5 Very Soft Starting to Decline 5 7 Approaching Peak Increasing4 6 Soft4
Declining Market5
3 Steady Fair3 Approaching Bottom4
2 3 Tightening Rising Market Strong2
2
1 Bottom of Market 1 Tightening Sharply 1 Very1 Strong Start of Recovery
0 0 0
Perth Perth Hobart Hobart Perth Sydney Darwin Sydney Darwin Sydney Hobart Darwin Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Melbourne Melbourne Melbourne Month in Review February 2019
Capital City Property Market Indicators - Retail Capital City Property Market Indicators – Retail
Factor Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra
Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property Balanced market available property available property Balanced market available property available property relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Increasing Steady
Rental Rate Trend Stable Declining Stable Stable Declining Stable Declining Increasing
Volume of Property Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady
Approaching peak Approaching Stage of Property Cycle Starting to decline Peak of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Declining market of market bottom of market
Local Economic Situation Steady growth Contraction Steady growth Flat Contraction Contraction Contraction Steady growth
Value Difference between Quality Properties with National Tenants, and Comparable Small Significant Small Large Significant Large Large Significant Properties with Local Tenants
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Local Economic Situation
6 9 6
Peak of Market8 Increasing Sharply Severe Contraction 5 5 Starting to Decline7 Increasing 4 6 Contraction Approaching Peak 4
5
3 Steady Declining Market Flat3
4 Approaching Bottom
2 3 Tightening Steady Growth2 Rising Market 2
1 Tightening Sharply High Growth1 Bottom of Market1 1 Start of Recovery
0 0 0
Perth Perth Perth Sydney Hobart Darwin Sydney Hobart Darwin Sydney Hobart Darwin Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Melbourne Melbourne 1 Melbourne Month in Review February 2019
New South Wales Property Market Indicators - Houses East Coast New South Wales Property Market Indicators – Houses
Factor Canberra Central Coast Coffs Harbour Lismore Mid North Coast Newcastle South East NSW Sydney
Shortage of available Over-supply of Severe shortage of property relative to Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market available property Balanced market available property Balanced market demand - Balanced relative to demand relative to demand market
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Tightening - Steady Increasing Steady Tightening Increasing
Demand for New Houses Strong Fair Very strong Fair - Strong Fair Fair Fair Fair
Trend in New House Increasing Steady Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Steady Declining Construction
Volume of House Sales Increasing Declining Steady Steady Declining Declining Steady Declining
Stage of Property Cycle Rising market Starting to decline Starting to decline Peak of market Peak of market Declining market Starting to decline Declining market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Houses
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft 5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Approaching Peak Soft 4 6 4 Declining Market 5 Fair 3 Steady Approaching Bottom 3 4 Rising Market Strong 2 3 Tightening 2 Bottom of Market 2 Very Strong 1 Start of Recovery 1 1 1 Tightening Sharply
0 0 0
Lismore Sydney Canberra Newcastle Lismore Sydney Lismore Sydney Canberra Canberra Central CoastCoffs Harbour Newcastle Newcastle Mid North Coast South East NSW Central CoastCoffs Harbour Central CoastCoffs Harbour Mid North Coast South East NSW Mid North Coast South East NSW
Month in Review February 2019
New South Wales Property Market Indicators - Units East Coast New South Wales Property Market Indicators - Units
Factor Canberra Central Coast Coffs Harbour Lismore Mid North Coast Newcastle South East NSW Sydney
Shortage of available Shortage of Over-supply of Severe shortage of property relative to Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property Balanced market available property Balanced market available property Balanced market demand - Balanced relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand market
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Tightening - Steady Increasing Steady Tightening Increasing
Demand for New Units Fair Strong Very strong Fair - Strong Fair Soft Fair Soft
Trend in New House Increasing Steady Declining Increasing Steady Steady Steady Declining Construction
Volume of House Sales Declining Steady Steady Steady Declining Declining Steady Declining
Stage of Property Cycle Declining market Starting to decline Starting to decline Peak of market Peak of market Declining market Starting to decline Declining market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Frequently Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Frequently Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Units
6 9 Peak of Market 6
Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft 5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Approaching Peak Soft Increasing 4 6 4 Declining Market 5 Fair Steady 3 3 Approaching Bottom 4 Strong 2 3 Tightening 2 Rising Market 2
1 Bottom of Market Very Strong Tightening Sharply 1 1 1 Start of Recovery
0 0 0
Lismore Canberra Newcastle Lismore Lismore Canberra Canberra Central Coast Coffs Harbour Newcastle Newcastle Mid North Coast South East NSW Central CoastCoffs Harbour Central CoastCoffs Harbour Mid North Coast South East NSW Mid North Coast South East NSW
Month in Review February 2019
NewEast South Coast Wales New SPropertyouth Wa Marketles Pro pIndicatorserty Mar k- eRetailt Indicators – Retail
Factor Canberra Coffs Harbour Lismore Mid North Coast Newcastle South East NSW Sydney
Balanced market - Over- Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of available supply of available Rental Vacancy Situation available property available property Balanced market property relative to Balanced market Balanced market property relative to relative to demand relative to demand demand demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady - Increasing Steady Steady Increasing Steady Steady
Rental Rate Trend Increasing Declining - Stable Stable Stable Increasing Stable Stable
Volume of Property Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Declining Steady Steady
Approaching peak of Stage of Property Cycle Declining market Starting to decline Peak of market Rising market Starting to decline Peak of market market
Local Economic Situation Steady growth Steady growth Flat Steady growth Steady growth Steady growth Steady growth
Value Difference between Quality Properties with National Tenants, Significant Significant Significant Significant Significant Significant - Large Small and Comparable Properties with Local Tenants
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Local Economic Situation
6 9 Peak of Market 6 Increasing Sharply 8 Severe Contraction
5 5 Starting to Decline 7 Increasing
4 6 Approaching Peak Contraction 4 Steady 5 3 Declining Market 3 4 Flat
Tightening 2 3 Approaching Bottom 2
Rising Market 2 1 Tightening Sharply 1 1 Steady1 Growth Bottom of Market
0 0 Start of Recovery 0
Lismore Sydney Lismore Sydney Lismore Sydney Canberra Newcastle Canberra Newcastle Canberra Newcastle Coffs Harbour Coffs Harbour Coffs Harbour Mid North Coast South East NSW Mid North Coast South East NSW Mid North Coast South East NSW
Month in Review February 2019
Victorian and Tasmanian Property Market Indicators - Houses Victorian and Tasmanian Property Market Indicators – Houses Burnie/ Factor Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Gippsland Melbourne Mildura Hobart Launceston Devonport Shortage of Shortage of Severe shortage of available property Balanced available property Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market available property Balanced market relative to market relative to relative to demand demand demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Tightening Tightening Tightening Steady Steady Steady Tightening Steady Tightening
Demand for New Houses Strong Strong Strong Strong Fair Strong Fair Strong Fair
Trend in New House Construction Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Steady Declining Steady Declining
Volume of House Sales Increasing Steady Steady Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Steady Steady
Approaching Approaching peak Stage of Property Cycle Rising market Starting to decline Peak of market Declining market Rising market Rising market Rising market peak of market of market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Frequently Occasionally Almost never Almost never Occasionally Almost never Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Houses
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft 5 Starting to Decline 5
7 Increasing Approaching Peak Soft 4 6 4
Declining Market5
Steady 3 Fair 3
Approaching Bottom4
2 3 Tightening Rising Market Strong 2
Bottom of Market2 1 Tightening Sharply Very Strong 1 Start of Recovery1 1
0 0 0
Echuca Mildura Burnie- Hobart Ballarat Echuca Mildura Burnie- Hobart Hobart Ballarat Bendigo Bendigo Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Mildura Burnie- GippslandMelbourne GippslandMelbourne Gippsland Launceston Launceston Melbourne Launceston Month in Review February 2019
VictorianVictorian andand TasmanianTasmanian Property Property Market Market Indicators Indicators – Units - Units
Burnie/ Factor Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Gippsland Melbourne Mildura Hobart Launceston Devonport Shortage of Over-supply of Severe shortage of Balanced available property Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market available property Balanced market market relative to relative to demand relative to demand demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Tightening Steady Tightening
Demand for New Units Fair Strong Fair Fair Soft - Fair Fair Fair Strong Fair
Trend in New Unit Construction Steady Steady Steady Steady Declining Steady Declining Steady Declining
Volume of Unit Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady
Approaching Start of Approaching peak Stage of Property Cycle Rising market Starting to decline Declining market Start of recovery Rising market Rising market peak of market recovery of market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Their Potential Resale Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Almost never Almost never Occasionally Almost never Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Units
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft
5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Soft 4 Approaching Peak 6 4
Declining Market 5
Steady 3 Fair 3 Approaching Bottom 4
2 3 Tightening Rising Market Strong 2
2
1 Bottom of Market Tightening Sharply Very Strong 1 Start of Recovery 1 1
0 0 0
Mildura Burnie- Hobart Echuca Mildura Burnie- Hobart Hobart Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Ballarat Bendigo Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Mildura Burnie- GippslandMelbourne GippslandMelbourne Gippsland Launceston Launceston Melbourne Launceston Month in Review February 2019
Victorian and Tasmanian Property Market Indicators - Retail Victorian and Tasmanian Property Market Indicators – Retail Burnie/ Factor Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Gippsland Melbourne Mildura Hobart Launceston Devonport Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Balanced Balanced available Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market available property Balanced market available property Balanced market available property market market property relative relative to demand relative to demand relative to demand to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Steady Steady Steady
Rental Rate Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable Declining Stable Declining Stable Declining
Volume of Property Sales Declining Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady
Declining Declining Approaching Stage of Property Cycle Rising market Rising market Starting to decline Start of recovery Rising market Rising market market market bottom of market
Local Economic Situation Steady growth Flat Flat Flat Contraction Steady growth Flat Contraction Flat
Value Difference between Quality Properties with National Tenants, Significant Significant Small Significant Significant Large Significant Large Significant and Comparable Properties with Local Tenants
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Local Economic Situation
6 9 6
Peak of Market8 Increasing Sharply Severe Contraction 5 5 Starting to Decline7
Increasing4 6 Contraction4 Approaching Peak
5
3 Steady Declining Market Flat3 4
2 3 Tightening Approaching Bottom Steady Growth2
Rising Market2 1 Tightening Sharply High Growth1 1 1 Bottom of Market 0 Start of Recovery0 0
Hobart Hobart Hobart Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Mildura Burnie- Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Mildura Burnie- Ballarat Bendigo Echuca Mildura Burnie- Gippsland Gippsland Gippsland Melbourne Launceston Melbourne Launceston Melbourne Launceston Month in Review February 2019
Queensland Property Market Indicators - Houses Queensland Property Market Indicators – Houses Hervey Sunshine Gold Factor Cairns Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Emerald Gladstone Bundaberg Brisbane Ipswich Toowoomba Bay Coast Coast Shortage of Shortage of available available Shortage of Shortage of Shortage of Over-supply Over-supply Shortage of property property available available available of available of available Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced available Rental Vacancy Situation relative to relative to Balanced market property property property property property market market market market property relative demand - demand - relative to relative to relative to relative to relative to to demand Balanced Balanced demand demand demand demand demand market market Tightening - Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Tightening Tightening Tightening Steady Tightening Tightening Steady Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Steady
Demand for New Houses Fair Soft Fair Soft Soft Fair Fair Fair Strong Strong Fair Soft Fair
Trend in New House Steady Declining Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Steady Steady Increasing Declining Steady Construction
Volume of House Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Steady Steady Declining Declining
Approachin Approaching Start of Start of Start of Rising Start of Bottom of Start of Start of Starting to Bottom of Stage of Property Cycle Bottom of market g peak of peak of recovery recovery recovery market recovery market recovery recovery decline market market market
Are New Properties Sold at Occasion- Occasion- Occasion- Occasion- Occasion- Almost Prices Exceeding Their Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally ally ally ally ally ally always Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Houses
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft
5 Starting to Decline 5
7 Increasing Approaching Peak Soft 4 6 4 Declining Market Steady 5 3 Fair Approaching Bottom 3
4 Rising Market
Tightening 2 3 Strong 2 Bottom of Market 2
1 Tightening Sharply Start of Recovery Very Strong 1 1 1
0 0 0
Cairns Cairns Cairns Mackay Ipswich Mackay Ipswich Mackay Ipswich Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Townsville GladstoneBundaberg Gold Coast Townsville GladstoneBundaberg Gold Coast Townsville Gladstone Hervey Bay Toowoomba Hervey Bay Toowoomba BundabergHervey Bay Gold CoastToowoomba Rockhampton Rockhampton Rockhampton Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Month in Review February 2019
Queensland Property Market Indicators - Units Queensland Property Market Indicators - Units Sunshine Gold Factor Cairns Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Emerald Gladstone Bundaberg Hervey Bay Brisbane Ipswich Toowoomba Coast Coast Over-supply Over-supply of of available Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Balanced Rental Vacancy Situation available property property market market market market market market market market market market market relative to demand relative to demand
Tightening - Tightenin Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Tightening Steady Tightening Tightening Steady Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Steady g
Demand for New Units Fair Soft Soft Soft Very soft Soft Fair Fair Fair Soft Fair Soft Soft
Declining Trend in New Unit Steady Declining Declining Steady significant Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Declining Construction ly
Volume of Unit Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Declining Steady Declining Declining
Approaching Approaching Start of Start of Bottom of Start of Start of Bottom of Start of Start of Starting to Bottom of Stage of Property Cycle Bottom of market peak of bottom of recovery recovery market recovery recovery market recovery recovery decline market market market
Are New Properties Sold at Occasion- Occasion- Almost Very Almost Prices Exceeding Their Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Frequently Very frequently ally ally never frequently always Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from previous month to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from previous month to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Units
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft
5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Approaching Peak Soft 4 6 4
Declining Market 5 Steady 3 Fair 3
Approaching Bottom 4
Tightening 2 3 Rising Market Strong 2
Bottom of Market 2 1 Tightening Sharply Very Strong 1 Start of Recovery 1 1
0 0 0
Cairns Cairns Cairns Mackay Ipswich Mackay Ipswich Mackay Ipswich Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Townsville GladstoneBundaberg Gold Coast Townsville GladstoneBundaberg Gold Coast Townsville Gladstone Hervey Bay Toowoomba Hervey Bay Toowoomba BundabergHervey Bay Gold CoastToowoomba Rockhampton Rockhampton Rockhampton Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast
Month in Review February 2019
Queensland Property Market Indicators - Retail Queensland Property Market Indicators – Retail Sunshine Factor Cairns Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Gladstone Wide Bay Brisbane Gold Coast Toowoomba Coast
Balanced market Shortage of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of - Over-supply of available property available property available property available property available property available property Rental Vacancy Situation available property Balanced market relative to Balanced market Balanced market relative to relative to relative to relative to relative to relative to demand - demand demand demand demand demand demand Balanced market
Steady - Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Tightening Increasing Increasing Increasing
Rental Rate Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable
Volume of Property Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady
Stage of Property Cycle Start of recovery Bottom of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Rising market Peak of market Peak of market Start of recovery
Local Economic Situation Flat Flat Steady growth Flat Flat Flat Steady growth Steady growth Flat Flat - Contraction
Value Difference between Quality Properties with National Tenants, Significant - Significant - Small Significant Small - Significant Small Significant Significant Small Small and Comparable Properties with Large Large Local Tenants
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Local Economic Situation
6 9 6
Peak of Market8 Increasing Sharply Severe Contraction 5 5 Starting to Decline7 Increasing Contraction 4 6 4 Approaching Peak
5 Steady 3 Flat Declining Market 3 4
2 3 Tightening Approaching Bottom Steady Growth2
Rising Market2 1 Tightening Sharply High Growth1
1 Bottom of Market 1
0 0 0 Start of Recovery
Cairns Cairns Cairns Mackay Mackay Mackay Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Emerald Brisbane Townsville Gladstone Wide Bay Townsville Gladstone Wide Bay Townsville Gladstone Wide Bay Gold CoastToowoomba Gold CoastToowoomba Gold CoastToowoomba Rockhampton Rockhampton Rockhampton Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Month in Review February 2019
SA, NT and WA Property Market Indicators - Houses SA, NT and WA Property Market Indicators - Houses Barossa Mount South West Factor Adelaide Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Darwin Perth Valley Gambier WA Over-supply of Balanced Balanced available property Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market market market relative to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Tightening Steady
Demand for New Houses Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Fair Soft Soft Soft
Increasing Trend in New House Construction Increasing Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Declining Steady Steady strongly
Volume of House Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Declining Steady Declining
Stage of Property Cycle Rising market Rising market Rising market Rising market Rising market Bottom of market Bottom of market Bottom of market Declining market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Their Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Houses
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Very Soft 5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Soft 4 Approaching Peak 6 4
Steady Declining Market 5 3 Fair 3 Approaching Bottom 4
Tightening2 3 Rising Market Strong2
2
1 Bottom of Market Tightening Sharply Very Strong1 Start of Recovery 1 1
0 0 0
Perth Perth Perth Darwin Darwin Darwin Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Iron Triangle Alice Springs Barossa Valley Barossa Valley Adelaide Hills Mount Gambier South West WA Mount Gambier South West WA Barossa Valley Mount Gambier South West WA Month in Review February 2019
SA,SA, NTNT andand WAWA Property Property Market Marke tIndicators Indicator -s Units– Units
Barossa Mount South West Factor Adelaide Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Darwin Perth Valley Gambier WA Large over-supply Over-supply of Balanced Balanced of available available property Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market market market property relative relative to to demand demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Steady
Demand for New Units Fair Fair Fair Fair Soft Fair Soft Soft Soft
Trend in New Unit Construction Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing Steady Steady Steady Declining Steady
Volume of Unit Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Steady Declining Declining Declining
Bottom of Bottom of Stage of Property Cycle Start of recovery Bottom of market Rising market Bottom of market Bottom of market Declining market Declining market market market
Are New Properties Sold at Prices Exceeding Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Occasionally Occasionally Almost never Their Potential Resale Value
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Demand for New Units 6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8
5 Very Soft 5 Starting to Decline 7 Increasing 4 6 Approaching Peak Soft 4 Declining Market 5 Steady 3 3
4 Fair Approaching Bottom
2 3 Tightening 2 Rising Market Strong
2
1 Tightening Sharply Bottom of Market 1 1 Very Strong Start of Recovery 1
0 0 0
Perth Perth Perth Darwin Darwin Darwin Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Adelaide Hills Iron Triangle Alice Springs Iron Triangle Alice Springs Barossa Valley Barossa Valley Adelaide Hills Mount Gambier South West WA Mount Gambier South West WA Barossa Valley Mount Gambier South West WA Month in Review February 2019
SA, NT and WA Property Market Indicators - Retail SA, NT and WA Property Market Indicators – Retail Adelaide Barossa Iron Alice South Factor Adelaide Darwin Perth Hills Valley Triangle Springs West WA Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of Over-supply of available available available available available Rental Vacancy Situation Balanced market Balanced market Balanced market property relative property relative property relative property relative property relative to demand to demand to demand to demand to demand
Rental Vacancy Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Increasing Increasing
Rental Rate Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable Declining Declining Declining Declining
Volume of Property Sales Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Declining
Approaching Approaching Approaching Approaching Stage of Property Cycle Bottom of market Declining market Bottom of market Bottom of market bottom of market bottom of market bottom of market bottom of market
Local Economic Situation Flat Contraction Contraction Contraction Flat Contraction Contraction Contraction
Value Difference between Quality Properties with National Large Large Large Large Significant Large Significant Small Tenants, and Comparable Properties with Local Tenants
Red entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a higher risk-rating Blue entries indicate change from 3 months ago to a lower risk-rating
Rental Vacancy Trend Stage of Property Cycle Local Economic Situation
6 9 6 Peak of Market Increasing Sharply 8 Severe Contraction
5 Starting to Decline 5 7 Increasing Contraction 4 Approaching Peak6 4
Declining Market5 Steady 3 Flat 3
Approaching Bottom4
2 3 Tightening Steady Growth 2 Rising Market
2
1 Tightening Sharply Bottom of Market High Growth 1 Start of Recovery1 1
0 0 0
Perth Perth Perth Darwin Darwin Darwin Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Iron Triangle Iron Triangle Adelaide Hills Alice Springs Adelaide Hills Alice Springs Adelaide Hills Iron TriangleAlice Springs Barossa Valley South West WA Barossa Valley South West WA Barossa Valley South West WA Local expertise. National strength. Trusted solutions. Herron Todd White is Australia’s leading independent property valuation and advisory group. For more than 50 years, we’ve helped our customers make the most of their property assets by providing sound valuations and insightful analytical advice.
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