PLOS ONE RESEARCH ARTICLE The alliance formation puzzle in contests with capacity-constraints: A test using American football reception-coverage contest data 1 2 1 Justin Ehrlich , Matthew Harmon , Shane SandersID * 1 Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States of America, 2 NFL.com, NFL, Syracuse, NY, United States of America *
[email protected] a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 Abstract a1111111111 We utilize a contest-theoretic model to demonstrate a version of the alliance formation puz- zle that aligns with reception-coverage contests in American football. Namely, secondary defenders can opt for single-coverageÐ1 v 1 contest. Alternatively, they can choose to ally Ðform double-coverage or 2 v 1 contest with exogenous intra-alliance prize divisionÐwhen OPEN ACCESS defending a given receiver. In our theoretical treatment, we find that defenses have a lower Citation: Ehrlich J, Harmon M, Sanders S (2020) equilibrium success rate in preventing the receiver from ªgetting openº under double-cover- The alliance formation puzzle in contests with capacity-constraints: A test using American football age than under single-coverage in the absence of capacity constraints. We also find that reception-coverage contest data. PLoS ONE 15(3): this success rate paradox is a necessary condition for the alliance formation puzzle. We e0227750. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. then test the theoretical treatment by analyzing 8,508 plays of NCAA and NFL game data pone.0227750 within a set of fixed effects, logistic regression models that control for receiver, level-of-play, Editor: Jason Anthony Aimone, Baylor University, and season-of-play. We find that equilibrium level of defensive success rises significantly UNITED STATES and substantially (p-value < 0.01 and marginal effect of between 13 and 17 percentage Received: May 17, 2019 points) when moving from single-coverage to double-coverage, ceteris paribus.