Tactical Military Deception
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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1985 Tactical military deception. Van Vleet, John Anton http://hdl.handle.net/10945/21578 /Vj lo Q J 6 t-^ w \p- h - \i La * i<r (5 *) i^ v) O^ S ^ DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY. CALIFORNIA 93943 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS TACTICAL MILITARY DECEPTION by John Anton Van Vleet » September 1985 Thesis Advisor: K. Herbig Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited 12 c 6 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PACE (Whan Data Entered) READ INSTRUCTIONS REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORM I. REPORT NUMBER 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Master's Tactical Military Deception Thesis; September 1985 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHORC*; B. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBERS.) John Anton Van Vleet 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME ANO ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK AREA ft WORK UNIT NUMBERS Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 93943-5100 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME ANO ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE Naval Postgraduate School September 1985 Monterey, California 93943-5100 13. NUMBER OF PAGES 259 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME ft ADDRESSf/f different from Controlling Oltlce) 15. SECURITY CLASS, (ol this report) UNCLASSIFIED !5a. DECLASSIFICATION DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ot thla Report) Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited. 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abatract entered In Block 20. II dlltarent from Report) 18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 19. KEY WOROS (Continue on reveree elde It neceeearv and Identity by block number) Deception; Surprise; Decision-Making; Operations Security; Electronic Warfare; Stratagem 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on ravaraa alda 11 nacaaaary and Identity by block number) This is a study of deception in military operations with em- phasis on the Army division level. The thesis is developed from empirical data, fundamental processes, and decision-making proc- esses. It is a comprehensive analysis of the battlefield decep- tion process and is a basic guide to deception planning. The thesis formulates a theory for operational military de- ception as an extension of the pioneering work of Barton Whaley. FORM EDITION OF I NOV 65 IS OBSOLETE DD I JAN 73 1473 S'N 0102- LF- 014- 6601 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Snra-- SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Whan Dim Bntara4) Whaley's deception data base is analyzed to show trends in oper- ational deception. These trends are combined with pertinent elements of game, communication, organization, and systems theory as well as decision-making and perceptual and cognitive processes. As a result of this study, the author presents conclusions and recommendations on how deception might be better applied to sup- port U.S. Army division operations. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGEfWh.n Data Entarad) Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited Tactical Military Deception by John Anton Van Vleet Major, United States Ariry 3.S., United States Military Academy, iy?4 S'jtrri t ted in partial fulfillirent of tne requirements for the degree of MASTER CF SCIENCJ. IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING (Electronic Warfare) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 1985 A3STRACT This is a study of deception in military operations with errphasis on the Army division level. The thesis is developed from empirical data, fundarrental processes, and decision- making processes. It is a comprehensive analysis of the battlefield deception process and is a basic guide to decep- tion planning. The thesis formulates a theory for operational military deception as an extension of the pioneering work of Barton Whaley. Whaley 's deception data base is analyzed to show trends in operational deception. These trends ere combined with rertlnent elements of game, communication, organisation, and systems theory as well as decision-making and perceptual and cognitive processes. As a result of this study, the author presents conclusions and recommendations on how deception might be better applied to support U.S. Army division operations. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 12 II. DECEPTION IN GENERAL 14 A. PROPOSITIONS ON MILITARY DECEPTION 14 3. STRATEGIC VERSUS TACTICAL IECEPTION 21 III . BACKGROUND 23 A. FORCE EFFECTIVENESS AND SURPRISE 24 E. SURPRISE AND DECEPTION 25 C. ECONOMICS OF DECEPTION 27 D. TFE GENERAL STAFF SYSTEM AND DECEPTION 28 E. TFE 33 AS TKI DECEPTION PLANNER 32 IV. TACTICAL DECEPTION GUIDANCE 34 A. DECEPTION PLAN EXAMPLE 34 3. EXECUTION AND RESULTS 37 C. SUMMARY 43 D. TEE NEED FOR ANALYSIS OF TACTICAL DECEPTION 44 V. THEORETICAL APPROACHES 46 A. COMMUNICATIONS THEORY 45 B„ ORGANIZATION THEORY 56 C. SYSTEMS THEORY €2 D. GAME THEORY AS PART OF DECISION THEORY 66 E. PERCEPTUAL AND COGNITIVE PROCESSES S0 F. DECISION MAKING b3 G. TRANSITION 101 VI. CAST EISTCRY ANALYSTS 103 A. DATA 104 3. CPITERIA 106 C. ANALYSIS OF DECEPTION EFFECTIVENESS 108 D. ANALYSIS OF OPTIMAL DECEPTION PRACTICES 142 E. SUMMARY 169 VII. CONCLUSIONS 184 A. IMPORTANCE OF PAST USE OF DECEPTION 184 E. FUTUPE IMPORTANCE OF OPERATIONAL DECEPTION 185 C. OPTIMAL DECEPTION PRACTICES : 186 D. INTEGRATION OF TEE OPERATIONS PLAN AND TEE DECEPTION PLAN 200 E. SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS 206 VIII. RECOMMENDATIONS 212 A. ALTERNATIVE OBJECTIVES MODEL FOR OPERATION'S 212 E. DECEPTION PLANNING AND EXECUTION BY A U.S. ARMY DIVISION 228 C. REQUIREMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS 24^ AFPFNDIX A. LISTS CF RATTLES FROM TEE DATA EASE 242 A. LIST A: CASES OF STRATEGIC SURPRISE AND/CR DECEPTION 242 E. LIST E: CASES CF TACTICAL SURPRISE AND/OR DECEPTION 244 C. LIbT C: TACTICAL CASES NOT INVOLVING SURPRISE OR DECEPTION 246 LIST CF REFERENCES 249 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 258 LIST OF TABLES 1 - SURPRISE ANT RESULTS OF BATTLE 25 2 - SURPRISE AND CASUALTIES 26 3 - DECISION ENVIRONMENTS AN! CRITERIA 71 4 - TWO-PERSON, ZERO-SUM GAMS MATRIX 72 5 - COMMANDER'S ESTIMATE GAME MATRIX 73 5 - USE OF DECEPTION AND ACHIEVING SURPRISE 108 7 - tactical deception and surprise let 8 - tactical mission effects on surprise AND EFCEPTICN 109 S - LIST A STRATEGIC SURPRISE AND DECEPTION CASES OVER TIME 110 10 - LIST B TACTICAL SURPRISE AND DECEPTION CASES OVER TIME 111 11 - SURPRISE ANT PECEFTICN OVER TIME 111 12 - EFFECT OE DECEPTION USED BY THE OFFENSE 115 13 - PROBABILITY OF OFFENSIVE OVERWHELMING VICTORY lie 14 - RESULTS CI DECEPTION FAILURE 117 15 - EFFECT Gi DECEPTION ON THE DEFENSE lib 16 - FORCE USED TO GAIN OBJECTIVES AETER WW I 127 17 - ACHIEVEMENT VERSUS FCRCFS AKE CASUALTIES — 123 18 - ENVIRONMENT VERSUS FORCES AND CASUALTIES 129 19 - DECEPTION VERSUS FORCES ANT CASUALTIES 131 20 - ACHIEVEMENT VERSUS FORCE EFFECTIVENESS 132 21 - FCRCFS AND CASUALTY RATIOS (OVERWHELMING VICTOFY) 133 22 - FORCES AN! CASUALTY RATIOS (CLEAR VICTORY) 134 23 - FORCES AND CASUALTY RATIOS (MARGINAL VICTORIES) 135 24 - FORCES AND CASUALTY RATIOS (DEFEAT) 135 25 - PROBABILITY OF DECEPTION GIVEN FORCE RATIOS 135 26 - TERRITORY EXCHANGE VERSUS OUTCOME OF 3ATTLE 13S 2? - TERRITORY EXCHANGE THRESHOLD CASE REDUCTION EFFECT 140 28 - TERRITORY EXCHANGE CASES BY CATEGORY 140 29 - MODE FREQUENCY OF SURPRISE 144 30 - MODE FREQUENCIES OF DECEPTION GENERATED SURPRISE 144 31 - MODE FREQUENCIES IN PRECONCEPTION CASES 147 32 - MODE FREQUENCIES GIVEN TECEPTION AND PRECONCEPTION 147 I 33 - *CDE FREQUENCIES GIVEN PERCEPTION REINFORCEMENT 148 34 - INTENSITY OF SURPRISE 149 35 - FXPECTED VALUE EASED ON SURPRISE INTENSITY 151 36 - INTENSITY OF SURPRISE (DECEPTION CASES) 151 37 - EXPECTED VALUES OF DECEPTION CASES 152 38 - INTENSITY OF SURPRISE (DECEPTION AND PRECONCEPTION) lti - 39 VALUES (DECEPTION BASED ON PRECONCEPTION ) 153 40 - MODF PAIR ANALYSIS AT INTENSITY TWO 154 41 - ^ODE P/IR ANALYSIS (TOTAL FREQUENCY) 155 42 - MODE PAIS ANALYSIS (PRICONCEPTICN BASED DECEPTION) 156 43 - VALUE OF A HIGH DEGREE OF SURPRISE 158 44 - EEFECT OP WARNING ON TACTICAL SURPRISI 15 & 45 - OVERALL 5.FFECT OF WARNING 162 46 - EFFECT OF SCHEDULE CHANGES ON EXPECTED VALUE 16? 47 _ EFFECT OF DEFERRED SCHEDULES ON OUTCOME 154 48 - DEMONSTRATION VERSUS FEINT 166 49 - RUSE FREQUENCY OF USE 167 50 - NUMPEB OF RUSES VERSUS OUTCOME 167 51 - DECEPTION MEASURES TO DISPLAY THE FALSE 163 52 - DECEPTION MEASURES TO CREATE AMBIGUITY 168 53 - DECEPTION MEASURES USFD TO CONCFAL TEE PEAL 16? 54 - COMPARISON OF VICTORY CRITERIA 174 55 - SOMME OFFENSIVE DATA COMPARISON 175 ^6 - TACTICAL SURPRISE FACTORS 177 57 - CJMA DATA BASE VALUES FOR SURPRISE 177 58 - OPTIONAL WEIGHTING SCHEMES 180 59 - COMPARISON OF WEIGHTING SCEEMES U 5 €? - MODE PAIR RANKING 3Y WEIGHTING OPTION 181 61 - EFFECT OF WARNING SHOWN BY WEIGHTING OPTION — lft2 TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS ASAS AIL SOURCE ANALYSIS SYSTEM CEWI COMBAT ELECTRONIC WARFARE INTELLIGENCE C3CM COMMAND CONTROL COMMUNICATIONS COUNTERKEASURES ETOC EIVISION TACTICAL OPERATIONS CENTER EEFI ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF FRIENDLY INFORMATION IW ELECTRONIC WARFARE G2 EIVISION INTELLIGENCE OFFICER G3 TIVISION OPERATIONS OFFICER G4 DIVISION LOGISTICS OFFICER HERO HISTORICAL EVALUATION ANT PISIARCE ORGANIZATION ICE IMITATIVE COMMUNICATIONS EECEPTION IEP INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION 01 THE BATTLEFIELD fCP MANIPULATIVE COMMUNICATIONS DECEPTION MI MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CIC OEEICER IN CHARGE OPSEC OPERATIONS SECURITY CPCPD OPERATIONS ORTEP PIR PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS PSYCPS PSYCFOLCGICAI WARFARE OPERATIONS CJMA QUANTIFIED JUEGM^NT METFOE OF ANALYSIS SFAEF SUPREME HEADCUARTERS ALL IEP EXPEDITIONARY FORCES SIGINT SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE TCAC TECHNICAL CONTROL AND ANALYSIS