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Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Fluctuations in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau

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Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Fluctuations in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau remote sensing Article Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Fluctuations in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau Xiankun Yang 1,2,* , Xixi Lu 3,4, Edward Park 5 and Paolo Tarolli 6 1 School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China 2 Rural Non-Point Source Pollution Comprehensive Management Technology Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China 3 Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570, Singapore; [email protected] 4 College of Environment and Resources, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, China 5 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore; [email protected] 6 Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Agripolis, viale dell’Università 16, 35020 Legnaro (PD), Italy; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-158-1008-5522 Received: 22 March 2019; Accepted: 4 May 2019; Published: 7 May 2019 Abstract: Lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions are crucial indicators for the combined impacts of regional climate change and resultant glacier retreat. However, they lack long-term systematic monitoring and thus their responses to recent climatic change still remain only partially understood. This study investigated lake extent fluctuations in the HKHT regions over the past 40 years using Landsat (MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI) images obtained from the 1970s to 2014. Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern HKHT (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995. In the past 20 years, extensive lake expansions (~39.6% in area and ~119.1% in quantity) were observed in all HKHT regions. Climate change, especially precipitation change, is the major driving force to the changing dynamics of the lake fluctuations; however, effects from the glacier melting were also significant, which contributed approximately 31.9–40.5%, 16.5–39.3%, 12.8–29.0%, and 3.3–6.1% of runoff to lakes in the headwaters of the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, and Ganges, respectively. We consider that the findings in this paper could have both immediate and long-term implications for dealing with water-related hazards, controlling glacial lake outburst floods, and securing water resources in the HKHT regions, which contain the headwater sources for some of the largest rivers in Asia that sustain 1.3 billion people. Keywords: lake fluctuation; remote sensing; climate change; glacier retreat; Hindu Kush Himalayas; Tibetan Plateau 1. Introduction The Earth’s climate is changing due to human emissions of greenhouse gases and is projected to continuously change throughout the 21st century, even at unprecedented rates in recent human history [1]. Impacts of climate change on high-elevation regions (e.g., the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes, and the Alps) are expected to be much more significant due to their higher sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes [2]. Therefore, lakes in the high-elevation regions have been considered Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 1082; doi:10.3390/rs11091082 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 1082 2 of 22 Remote Sens. 2019, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 23 one of the most efficient indicators of terrestrial climate change [3,4]; however, investigating their responsesone of the to themost combined efficient indicators impacts of of both terrestrial climate climate change change and resultant[3,4]; however, glacier investigating retreat still remainstheir responses to the combined impacts of both climate change and resultant glacier retreat still remains largely unknown. largely unknown. The Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions, with a total lake surface area over 50,000 km2, The Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions, with a total lake surface area over 50,000 are the highest lake regions on Earth. The lakes in these regions play important roles in maintaining km2, are the highest lake regions on Earth. The lakes in these regions play important roles in themaintaining water balance the water of some balance of the of some largest of the Asian largest rivers Asian [5 ,rivers6] (Figure [5,6] (1Figure), and 1 for), and hydrological for hydrological cycles thatcycles sustain that around sustain 1.3around billion 1.3 peoplebillion people in Asia in [ 7Asia]. Over [7]. Over the past the past decades, decades, the the HKHT HKHT regions regions have experiencedhave experienced dramatic dramatic climate changesclimate changes [8]. The [ most8]. The widely most reportedwidely reported effects include effects rapidinclude alterations rapid of hydrologicalalterations of hydrological cycles that werecycles causedthat were simultaneously caused simultaneously by climate by climate change change and its and induced-glacier its induced- retreat.glacier These retreat. will These undoubtedly will undoubtedly cause disruptions cause disruptions to downstream to downstream water supplies water supplies [2,9,10 ].[2,9,10 Ongoing]. climateOngoing change climate over change succeeding over decadessucceeding could decades have could additional have negativeadditional impacts negative across impacts these across regions, includingthese regions, cascading including effects cascading on downstream effects on river downstream flows, water-related river flows, water-related hazards, glacial hazards, lake glacial outburst floods,lake andoutburst on riverine floods, biodiversity and on riverine [11,12 biodiversity]. Lake systems [11,12 in]. this Lake area systems are key in components this area are within key the hydrologicalcomponents cycles within largely the hydrological controlling thecycles supply largely and controlling storage of the water. supply However, and storage they have of water. recently experiencedHowever, they strong have spatiotemporally recently experienced heterogeneous strong spatiotemporally changes in their heterogeneous hydrological changes regimes in their [13–15 ]. Ashydrological most lakes in regimes this region [13–15 are]. rarelyAs most impacted lakes in by this anthropogenic region are rarely activities impacted [16], by it isanthropogenic of a paramount importanceactivities [ to16 investigate], it is of a paramount the coupled importance impacts ofto investigate climate change the coupled and glacier impacts retreat of climate on hydrological change cyclesand andglacier other retreat related on hydrological environmental cycles disturbances and other related in the environmental HKHT regions. disturbances in the HKHT regions. FigureFigure 1. 1.Geographical Geographical settings settings ofof thethe AmuAmu Darya, Tarim, Tarim, Indus, Indus, Ganges, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Brahmaputra, Salween, Salween, Mekong,Mekong, Yangtze, Yangtze, Yellow Yellow rivers, rivers, and and HinduHindu Kush-Himalaya-TibetanKush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) (HKHT) Interior Interior (also (also known known as Tibetanas Tibetan Plateau Plateau Interior). Interior). The Theblue, blue, orange,orange, and black black arrows arrows depict depict that that climate climate change change in the in the HKHTHKHT regions regions was was revealed revealed by by three three distinct distinct patterns:patterns: (1) (1) Amu Amu Darya, Darya, Indus, Indus, northern northern part part of Ganges, of Ganges, andand western western part part of of Tarim Tarim associated associated withwith thethe impact of of the the westerlies, westerlies, (2) (2) Brahmaputra, Brahmaputra, Salween, Salween, andand southern southern part part of of Ganges Ganges controlledcontrolled byby the Indian summer summer monsoon monsoon (ISM), (ISM), and and (3) (3)Mekong, Mekong, Yangtze,Yangtze, Yellow, Yellow, and and most most part part of of the the HKHT HKHT InteriorInterior resulted from from the the mix mix of of ISM ISM and and Eastern Eastern Asian Asian monsoonmonsoon (EAM). (EAM). TheThe increasing increasing availability availability ofof satellitesatellite remote sensing sensing data data with with sufficient sufficient spatiotemporal spatiotemporal resolutionsresolutions and and their their global global coverage coverage allow allow for rapid for andrapid cost-e andff ectivecost-effective investigations investigations of lake fluctuations of lake Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 1082 3 of 22 Remote Sens. 2019, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 23 across large areas over a longer-term. Applications of remote sensing are thus advantageous over traditionalfluctuations field-based across large methods areas inover detecting a longer-term. and analyzing Applications the dynamics of remote of alpinesensing lakes, are thus such as changesadvantageous in lake over abundance, traditional surface field-based elevation, methods water in storage,detecting surface and analyzing area, and the theirdynamics interactions of alpine with glaciers.lakes, such Such as approaches changes in are lake even abundance, more beneficial surfacein elevation, studying water lakes storage, in remote surface areas likearea, HKHT and their regions whereinteractions field-based with glaciers. lake measurements Such approaches are are limited. even more There beneficial are several in studying studies lakes that in have remote investigated areas lakelike changes
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