MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains 1 Southern Bogota, Colombia photo: cover Front DISCLAIMER The development of this publication has been supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in the context of its inter-regional project “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective”, which is financially co-supported by the Government Production Team of Austria (Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Tina Schoolmeester, GRID-Arendal Environment and Water Management). Miguel Saravia, CONDESAN Magnus Andresen, GRID-Arendal Julio Postigo, CONDESAN, Universidad del Pacífico Alejandra Valverde, CONDESAN, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Matthias Jurek, GRID-Arendal Björn Alfthan, GRID-Arendal Silvia Giada, UNEP This synthesis publication builds on the main findings and results available on projects and activities that have been conducted. Contributors It is based on available information, such as respective national Angela Soriano, CONDESAN communications by countries to the United Nations Framework Bert de Bievre, CONDESAN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and peer-reviewed Boris Orlowsky, University of Zurich, Switzerland literature. It is based on review of existing literature and not on new Clever Mafuta, GRID-Arendal scientific results generated through the project. 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MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Tropical Andes mountains 5 Foreword 6 Executive summary 10 Recommendations 12 Introduction 17 Climate change 18 Climate change hazards and trends 21 Projections 23 Impact of climate change on natural and human systems 24 Loss of ecosystem functions and biodiversity 28 Water 34 Food 38 Health 40 Energy 42 Industry 43 Key risks related to climate change 47 Policy assessment 48 Analysis of relevant adaptation policies and frameworks of the major vulnerable sectors 52 Policy approaches 71 Institutional and stakeholder analysis 73 Gender issues 74 Indigenous people 75 Gap analysis 76 Comparative analysis of available policies 78 Water 79 Loss of ecosystem functions and biodiversity 80 Health 81 Food (agriculture) 82 Energy (hydropower) 83 Are the responses forward-looking? 86 Conclusions 88 Acronyms 89 Notes 91 References 3 Summits of the Iliniza volcano, Ecuador 4 Foreword Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half of The result of a broad assessment process involving By the end of this century, the coldest years in the the world’s population as a source of water, energy, national governments and regional and international Tropical Andes Mountains will be warmer than the agriculture and other essential goods and services. experts, the reports offer concrete recommendations warmest years to which humans and other species Unfortunately, while the impact of climate change is for adaptation. This includes sharing regional good have adapted so far. A vast variety of ecosystems are accentuated at high altitude, such regions are often practices with the potential for wider replication to found in these mountains, including the Amazon on the edge of decision-making, partly due to their improve cost efficiency and adaptation capacity. basin, snow-capped peaks and more arid areas like isolation, inaccessibility and relative poverty. the Atacama Desert, the world’s driest. These support While each of the regions is covered in a dedicated the lives of tens of millions of people, so cooperation That is why the United Nations Environment report, they all face similar issues. On one hand, and information sharing among Andean countries Programme and GRID-Arendal have partnered on rising temperatures and changing precipitation are crucial for the health of these ecosystems, which a series of outlook reports about the need for urgent patterns affect a range of mountain ecosystems, is why assistance from the respective governments action to protect mountain ecosystems and to mitigate including forests, grasslands and lakes. On the has been much appreciated in creating this report. human risk from extreme events. Covering the Western other, drivers such as pollution from mining and Balkans, Southern Caucasus, Central Asia, (Tropical) unsustainable agriculture erode their ability to We hope that this report will serve as a practical Andes and Eastern Africa, the reports assess the cope with these changes. The combined impact companion for local, regional and national policy effectiveness of existing adaptation policy measures and is increasing vulnerability among the local and makers seeking to protect fragile mountain the extent to which they apply to mountain landscapes, downstream populations who depend on mountain ecosystems and the people who depend on them. going on to identify critical gaps that must be addressed ecosystems – especially when they are isolated from to meet current and future risks from climate change. markets, services and decision-making institutions. Achim Steiner H.E. Andrä Rupprechter UNEP Executive Director and Under-Secretary- Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, General of the United Nations Environment and Water Management 5 Executive summary The Tropical Andes are the home to many diverse The Tropical Andes will experience some of the most Altiplano area and north-east. The rainy season in the communities, from remote farming villages to large drastic impacts of climate changes in South America. Altiplano area is already becoming more concentrated, urban centres and capitals, such as Merida, Bogotá, By the year 2100, the coldest years in the Tropical and the dry season longer. Quito, Cusco, El Alto and La Paz. In total, about 60 Andes Mountains will be warmer than the warmest million people live at between 1,000 and 4,500 metres years to which humans and other species have adapted The Tropical Andes are among the world’s biodiversity (Cuesta, 2012). The region has a tropical climate, so far. Different climate models all indicate warming hotspots most vulnerable to climate change (Malcolm with little seasonal variation in temperatures. everywhere, but there is far greater uncertainty when et al., 2006). These mountains contain a wide spectrum However, there is strong seasonality of precipitation, it comes to projections of precipitation and seasonality of microclimates harbouring unique diversity of in the Peruvian Andes in particular. In Colombia (Magrin et al. 2014). However, the general trend ecosystems. Glaciers, high mountain grasslands, and Venezuela, the Andes are generally more humid, across the region is that precipitation will increase in mountain forests, rivers, lakes and wetlands provide while the Altiplano and the Bolivian Andes are drier. the already wet north-west and decrease in the drier essential services to society. Therefore, damage from climate change to these ecosystems can consequently harm