Annual Assessment No. 9 2012-2013 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute

ANNUAL ASSESSMENT

JPPI's Dashboard for the Past Year: Threats and Opportunities for the Jewish Civilization

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. www.jppi.org.il Givat Ram Campus • P.O.B. 39156 Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040

ISBN 978-965-7549-08-7 Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council:

The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Co-Chairs incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. The mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies Stuart Eizenstat of the Jewish people and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning Dennis Ross on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Irina Nevzlin Kogan Associate Chair people is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. on behalf of Nadav Foundation Leonid Nevzlin JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing their Jerry W. Levin Members of the Board potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works toward developing professional strategic and as President of UJA Federation of New York Elliott Abrams long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future of the Jewish Irwin Cotler People. JPPI provides professionals, decision makers, and global leaders with: Ratner Family Sami Friedrich Charles Ratner Dan Halperin • Surveys and analyses of key situations and dynamics Steve Hoffman as Chairman of the JAFI Budget • “Alerts” to emerging opportunities and threats Alan Hoffmann and Finance Committee David Kolitz • Assessment of important current events and anticipated developments Vernon Kurtz Natan Sharansky • Strategic action options and innovative alternatives Morlie Levin • Policy option analysis as Chairman of the JAFI Executive Bernard-Henri Lévy • Agenda setting, policy recommendations, and work plan design Paul E. Singer Glen Lewy Judit Bokser Liwerant on behalf of the Paul E. Singer Foundation Isaac Molho JPPI is unique in dealing with the future of the Jewish people as a whole within a methodological framework of study and policy development. Its independence is assured by its company articles, The Judy & Michael Steinhardt Foundation Steven Nasatir Avi Pazner with a board of directors co-chaired by Ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross - both have James Tisch Jehuda Reinharz served in the highest eschelons of the U.S. government, and Leonid Nevzlin in Israel - and composed as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors John Ruskay of individuals with significant policy experience. The board of directors also serves as the Institute’s Doron Shorer Professional Guiding Council. Jerry Silverman Our thanks to UJA Federation of New York, the Jewish Federation of St. Louis, Ted Sokolsky the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, Alan Solow the Jewish Federation of Cleveland, Michael Steinhardt Alex Grass z"l and Jack Kay z"l Aharon Yadlin for their support of this project. President and Founding Director Avinoam Bar-Yosef

Academic Counselor Suzanne Last Stone

Projects Coordinator Ita Alcalay Annual Assessment 2012-2013 No. 9

Battling De-Legitimization 30 years of Patrilineal Descent The Jews of Europe and Latin America Jewish Leadership

PROJECT HEAD Dr. Shlomo Fischer

contributors Gedaliah Afterman, Avinoam Bar-Yosef, Nadia Ellis, Sylvia Barack Fishman, Avi Gil, Inbal Hakman, Michael Herzog, Arielle Kandel, Antony Korenstein, Judit Bokser Liwerant, Dov Maimon, Asaf Nissenbaum, Steven Popper, Barry Rosenberg , Shmuel Rosner, Noah Slepkov, Suzanne Last Stone, Shalom Salomon Wald

EDITORS Barry Geltman Rami Tal Copyright © The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel, Ltd.) Jerusalem 2013/5773

JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 9139101, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute

Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design

ISBN 978-965-7549-08-7 Table of Contents

Foreword 5 Agenda: Dilemmas and Recommended Policy Directions 2012-2013 9 Selected Indicators of World Jewry – 2012-2013 18 2012-2013 Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment 21 Part One: Geopolitics 31 Combating De-Legitimization 33 Israel and the Jewish People: Geopolitical Developments, 2012-2013 43 The Triangular Relationship – Washington, Jerusalem, and the Jewish People; 2013: New U.S. and Israeli Administrations, Challenges and Opportunities 71 The Rise of Asia: Policy Implications for Israel and the Jewish People 89 Part Two: Developments in the Jewish World 101 Fathers of the Faith? Three Decades of Patrilineal Descent in American Reform Judaism 103 Jewish Leadership in North America – Changes in Personnel and Structure 137 European Jewry – Signals and Noise: Is there a point of negative inflection? 159 Latin American Jewish life in the 21st Century: The paradox of shrinking communities, and expanded - revitalized Jewish life 173 Part Three: Developments to Watch: Religion and Politics in Israel 187 Israel Faces the Ultra-Orthodox Challenge: Why Now, and What Next? 189 Women of the Wall: Toward Compromise or Continued Conflict 203 1 Foreword

JPPI’s 2012-13 Annual Assessment of the Situation Diaspora organizations launch an education and Dynamics of the Jewish People shows a process and prepare Diaspora Jews for the possible deepening of the dilemmas and challenges implications of these troubling developments in confronting the State of Israel and the Jewish the region. people globally we described last year. On one As part of JPPI’s ongoing work on developing hand, the turbulence in the Middle East has and refining systematic indicators of trends increased, and makes clear that Israel stands as an affecting the Jewish people, last year’s Annual island of stability and democracy in the region. But Assessment introduced a dashboard of gauges on the other, a confluence of rapid developments that offer measures of Jewish well-being across in the region – Iran’s march toward nuclearization; five key dimensions: geopolitical developments, the civil war and implosion in Syria, as well as the demography, identity formation and expression, increasing spillover to Iraq and Lebanon, and the intra and inter-community bonds, and material increasingly sectarian nature of the broader conflict resources. They have been updated in this within the Muslim world; the rise of political Islam Assessment to show – with an accompanying in Egypt and Tunisia; and the secular protests in analysis – how each of the five dimensions has Turkey, all paint a volatile and fragile picture. been affected by developments in the last year. These challenges do no simply have implications On the geopolitical front, 21 dilemmas are laid for the region; they also threaten the security of out in this Assessment that demand a deep Jews worldwide. Therefore, JPPI recommends that strategic approach and require careful attention. any Israeli decision making process related to these In other areas such as identity and identification, issues takes into consideration, in a structured community bonds, demography, and economics, manner, the implications of any decision for we continue to detect slight improvement.This communities in the Diaspora, as well as relations is the result of a very committed group of Jewish with the U.S. government, Israel’s ally. At the same executive leaders and the efforts they have made time, it is necessary that local and national Jewish over the last decade.

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 5 But, this leadership group, supported by and operational approaches for combating dedicated lay leaders old enough to have de-legitimization, based on the conclusions experienced the immediate aftermath of the and recommendations of the various Shoah, the first years of national revival, and bodies dealing with this issue, coordinating the victory of 1967, necessarily will make way efforts within the Israeli government and for a generational transition. This creates a very with Diaspora leadership, and working to serious challenge to identify and prepare the new implement them. leadership group that needs to steer the Jewish 2. Intermarriage – and its attendant issues of people toward a new horizon of prosperity and conversion, outreach to non-Jewish family peace. Vision is certainly required, but so is a members, and child rearing – continues to practical approach in the arenas of major Jewish require attention. It presses on how we envision organizations and federations, government, future Jewish life and and the continuity of politics and global affairs. Jewish identity. This assessment includes a The assessment covers a number of other events new, original study of this phenomenon in and issues: connection with the 30th anniversary of the 1. The phenomenon of de-legitimization of American Reform movement's decision to Israel is extremely serious, particularly as it recognize as Jews the children of Jewish fathers has gained momentum internationally. Many and non-Jewish mothers. efforts are being made by the government of 3. The section on European Jewry takes on a Israel and Jewish organizations worldwide to compelling and perplexing paradox: To many confront this phenomenon. JPPI continues American and Israeli Jews, Europe seems to be to invest its energies in this field, and is near on a harsh trajectory with rising anti-Semitism, completion of a major study done for the increasingly vocal extreme right-wing Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs. This elements, and official challenges to traditional year’s Annual Assessment calls for better Jewish ritual practices. Even though many coordination and action-oriented planning. European Jews have left or are contemplating JPPI recommends that the government of emigration, their representative bodies have Israel appoint a person of ministerial rank, not felt the necessity to launch any emergency answerable to the prime minister, to bear pan-European strategic thinking process in overall responsibility for coordinating efforts to response to these developments. Indeed, combat de-legitimization, and who is provided there is evidence of a thriving Jewish culture in the necessary authority and resources for doing several European nations. so. A project manager and a small staff should 4. The 2012-13 Assessment also offers a support the effort. The minister responsible thoughtful and penetrating analysis of recent should be charged with developing a strategy

6 the jewish people policy institute national elections and the resulting new with Jewish organizations, structures, thinkers, administrations in both the United States and decision makers, and leaders around the globe, Israel. but also with the general Jewish public. This 5. The rise of the Asian powers is a subject demands a deeper, more formal consultation JPPI has been dealing with since 2003. The mechanism be created, implemented, and strategic pivot announced by the Obama nurtured. administration toward Asia underscores the Of all JPPI’s many activities and publications, its importance of Asia to the Jewish people and Annual Assessments are particularly significant. Israel. World Jewry has an important role to play Not only do they provide an invaluable yearly in strengthening the triangular relationship snapshot of the situation and dynamics of the between Israel, the Jewish People and Asia – Jewish people, they also present a coherent, with a focus on China and India. The Israeli comprehensive set of policy recommendations government should develop and leverage that address current needs and, if properly heeded, existing ties and networks in coordinating could help pave the way forward. Once again, Asian policy. Already, Israel-China trade has this year’s assessment certainly fulfills this critical reached $10 billion annually. mission. We are pleased that for the past several Since 2005, the Annual Assessment has examined years, JPPI has been given the opportunity for a the most significant challenges facing the Jewish several hour briefing with the Prime Minister and world. What has remained constant is the reality Cabinet on the Assessment and its implications, that the responsibility for ensuring a thriving underscoring its importance. We have also briefed Jewish future is a shared one. It rests partly on the major Jewish organizations in the Diaspora on the shoulders of the Israeli government, and partly Assessment, and will do so again this year.

Stuart Eizenstat, Dennis Ross, and Avinoam Bar-Yosef

the jewish people policy institute 7 Agenda: Dilemmas and Recommended 2 Policy Directions 2012-2013

JPPI's policy recommendations were presented JPPI recommends that periodic "Israel- at the June 23, 2013 session of the Israeli Diaspora" consultations be initiated. The Cabinet. Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked subjects discussed should relate to areas of the Institute for the presentation and assigned common interest and mutual interaction, the Strategic Affairs Ministry with the overall and also to enhancing coordination and responsibility for the struggle against the strengthening Jewish people soft power. phenomenon of de-legitimization, according JPPI recommends using the structure of the to JPPI's recommendation. The summary of the Coordination Committee of the Government- presentation, as it was published in a Cabinet Jewish Agency to take advantage of its legal Secretary communiqué, appears at the end of this status for conducting the consultation. For chapter. this purpose, it is recommended to expand the Coordination Committee to include key Recommendations for the representatives of other Jewish organizations, cultural and academic figures, and former senior Government of Israel public service officials in Israel and abroad. Given forecasts of a security deterioration (Iran, Explanation: Widespread competition between syria, Hezbollah, etc.), it is recommended that Jewish organizations over resources and influence any decision-making process in this area take harms coordination and the concentrated into consideration, in a structured manner, application of joint efforts. the implications of any decision for Jewish communities in the Diaspora. Combating the De-legitimization of Israel: The Government of Israel should appoint a senior Explanation: Israeli military action might provoke minister, answerable to the prime minister, who reactions/backlash against Jews and Jewish will bear overall responsibility for the effort to communities in the Diaspora. combat de-legitimization. As part of this role, he should oversee a professional staff and receive

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 9 the necessary authority and resources to do should be implemented by specially trained so. The minister responsible should be charged project managers in cities with large numbers with developing a strategy and operational of immigrants. approaches for combating de-legitimization, • Provide a comprehensive solution to those based on the conclusions and recommendations wishing to make Aliyah from the West, of various bodies dealing with this issue, and especially from France, by establishing an work to implement them. implementing body that combines the Explanation: Despite efforts invested in the Ministry of Absorption, the Jewish Agency struggle against de-legitimization and local and Nefesh B'Nefesh's experience with victories against some practical manifestations, community Aliyah projects with the lessons insufficient progress has been made in stemming learned from attracting and absorbing olim the phenomenon on the level of consciousness from North America. (thought and awareness) and a super-authority • Renew projects designed to promote is needed to coordinate the efforts of the various community Aliyah and expand them by bodies in Israel and around the world working on establishing a new system for proactively this issue. attracting immigrants. Given evidence indicating a significant potential Explanation: As a result of the restrictions on

for Aliyah from Europe, a concerted effort should Jewish ritual practice (e.g. circumcision, Jewish be made to achieve the immediate removal of ritual slaughter), the rise of anti-Semitic incidents, obstacles in the areas of employment and social and demographic changes occurring in Europe, absorption, by taking the following measures: the trend among European Jews to emigrate to • Establish a national authority or inter- stronger Jewish communities is strengthening. ministerial committee including Jewish Key Policy Recommendations to Advance Sino- Agency representation to remove bureaucratic Israeli and Indo-Israeli Ties obstacles, ensure recognition of foreign degrees, facilitate the absorption of those Strengthen the staff of the National Security whose professions require professional Council that coordinates and manages the policy licensing, and amend the draft law. initiatives of the government and of Jewish organizations in regard to Asia, especially China • Significantly improve the country's absorption and India. mechanisms. Develop a uniform master plan for selected cities and towns that addresses • Initiate regular Sino-Israeli-Jewish people and the entire range of absorption elements: Indo-Israeli-Jewish people dialogues involving ulpanim, children's education, community influential Jews (former senior officials and activity, and employment. The master plan politicians, academics, and businessmen) from

10 the jewish people policy institute the United States, Europe, Australia, Russia This strategy should place an emphasis and Israel with senior Chinese and Indian on mid-level officials and on individuals officials with the aim of advancing cooperation of standing whose influence is likely between the peoples and states in a wide range to increase in the future. In particular, of areas. Jewish-Israeli cultural institutes should • Encourage semi-official1.5 ( track) strategic be opened in Beijing and in New Delhi dialogues with India and China that involve (based on the model of the German former government officials and academics Goethe Institutes and French cultural on the Israeli side and Chinese and Indian institutes around the world). Such government-linked think tanks, policy experts institutes should offer Hebrew language and former government officials, which will instruction, intensive courses for support official strategic dialogue between the diplomats and businessmen, lectures on countries. This format will allow for deviation Jewish religion and history, and seminars from the structural rigidity of government- and panel discussions on topics related to level talks with India and China, and will Israel and the Diaspora. contribute to a more open dialogue. Explanation: The economic and geopolitical rise • Strengthen China's economic interests of Asia, particularly India and China, together in Israel through Chinese state-owned with their involvement in the Middle East, enterprises. Its possible involvement in large- requires that Israel prepare itself accordingly, scale infrastructure and energy projects while at the same time making every effort to could influence the Chinese stance toward safeguard its special relationship with the United Israel in the diplomatic arena. As such, the States. Government of Israel (GOI) should consider involving the Chinese in projects such as the gas fields, privatization of the ports, etc. (this, in addition to the Eilat rail line). Such agreements should be evaluated on the basis of their strategic (not just their economic) importance, and be signed as part of a comprehensive process of upgrading relations between the two countries. • Develop a comprehensive Jewish and Israeli cultural outreach strategy to China and India that involves world Jewry.

the jewish people policy institute 11 Recommendations for Jewish requirements and mutual dependency, and Communities in the Diaspora deal with articulating a common vision and agenda for local, national, and international In light of the possibility that Israel's security Jewish organizations. situation will deteriorate (Iran, Syria, • Establish a North American multi- Hezbollah, etc.), Diaspora communities must disciplinary center for executive make preparations for crisis management, development. assisted by the Fund for Jewish Community Security, headed by JAFI's executive chairman Increasing levels of immigration by Latin and the secretary of the Israeli Cabinet. American Jews in the United States requires Crisis management preparations should that the Jewish establishment develop new include coordinating with local security strategies to promote immigrant integration in authorities and refreshing the crisis order to both strengthen the Jewish community management system according to the and to benefit from their unique capabilities to training manual of the Jewish People Policy build ties with the North American Hispanic Institute. community whose influence is steadily growing. With the North American Jewish leadership Diaspora Jewry should coordinate its efforts to entering a period of generational change and aid Israel's poor with the Israeli government with a decline in Jewish representation in the U.S. assistance by JAFI and the JDC. Congress, Jewish communities and organizations Explanation: An OECD report finds that more must encourage promising and talented young than 20% of Israelis are poor, when measured people both to enter political life and to take on by income. According to Israel's National senior community positions. Insurance Institute, which distinguishes between In order to enhance the preparation of a pool income levels and expenditure levels, only 12.6% of qualified new leadership, the following steps of Israelis live below the poverty line when should be taken: measured in terms of family expenditures. A significant proportion of the overall population • Major Jewish organizations should plan and of poor Israelis are from the Haredi and Arab launch an appropriately budgeted long-term sectors, and do not participate in the labor force national cooperative initiative that will aid in at rates similar to the rest of the population. the recruitment, professional development, Responsibility for correcting this situation lies and retention of human resources for the next with the Israeli government. Uncoordinated generation of leadership. The project should action by Diaspora Jewish communities could relate to the network of Jewish organizations harm efforts to integrate these populations into as a national system with common the work force.

12 the jewish people policy institute In light of negative developments affecting Policy Recommendations European Jewish communities, and in order to Concerning Marriage deal with new challenges, it is recommended that between Jews and Non-Jews a pan-European coordinating body be established in the United States that includes a prominent public figure, a rabbi and a lawyer, as well as two observers, one each A. Recent research indicates that the from the U.S. Jewish community and the Israeli connection of a percentage of non-Orthodox government. If necessary, the coordinating body Jewish males to their Jewish identity poses a should develop a pan-European Jewish strategy significant challenge. New, intensive research to counter efforts to ban Jewish religious rituals should be conducted to identify new ways such as circumcision and kosher slaughter, and of connecting members of this group to to counter growing anti-Semitic rhetoric and their Jewishness, in the case of Jewish men acts. married to Jewish women, and especially in the case of Jewish men married to non- Jewish women. B. From the Jewish people's perspective, the importance of conversion should be impressed upon non-Jewish spouses, especially non-Jewish women married to Jewish men. Explanation: According to existing research, families in which non-Jewish partners convert show commitment levels very similar to those who married within the Jewish community in terms of their involvement in Jewish life.

the jewish people policy institute 13 Policy Dilemmas in the 10. How can we continue to support the Kingdom Geopolitical Arena of Jordan – its security, economy, and stability? 11. How can we continue to foster Israel's relations Security Threats and Strategic Issues: with Turkey following Netanyahu's apology 1. Should Israel strike Iran alone in the event it over the flotilla incident? concludes that Iran's nuclear program has crossed the red line? 12. In what way should Israel relate to the "Arab Spring" and to the rise of political Islam so as 2. How can Israel continue to block the transfer to serve Israeli interests? of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah without being drawn into the Syrian morass or being 13. Do Israel and the Jewish people have the pulled into a war in the north? ability to moderate the hatred of the Arab Street, whose influence over the policy of Arab 3. How can we prevent the use of Syrian chemical regimes is growing? weapons against Israeli targets and keep such weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: organizations? 14. What is the best and most correct way to 4. How can the terrorist threat from Sinai be revive the peace process and make it effective? curbed? 15. What parameters does Israel prefer for a 5. How should Israel deal with Hamas in order permanent agreement with the Palestinians? to deter it and maintain quiet on the Gaza 16. Does Israel prefer an alternative other than a border? permanent agreement: Conflict management? 6. How can Israel build a diplomatic and security Interim agreements? Unilateral steps? apparatus that will ensure the protection of 17. How can we involve Egypt and other Arab gas drilling areas and delivery channels? countries in a beneficial role in the peace 7. Who is the ideal customer for Israeli gas and process? what are Israel’s preferred supply channels? The Relationship Triangle: Jerusalem- Washington-U.S. Jewish Community: Israel and its Neighbors 18. How can Israel continue to maintain its 8. What preparations should be made for the strategic alliance with the United States possible break-up of Syria and its becoming a without relinquishing essential Israeli interests? failed state? 19. How can Israel "persuade" the United States 9. How can Israel continue to maintain the peace to remain a present and dominant force in the treaty with Egypt and to strengthen security Middle East? cooperation between the two countries?

14 the jewish people policy institute 20. How can Israel benefit from the support of American Jews without placing them in a difficult position with the administration or with other American citizens?

Israel's Standing in the International Arena: 21. Is it possible to improve Israel's international standing without moving toward an Israeli- Palestinian settlement, and if so, how?

the jewish people policy institute 15 Prime Minister Netanyahu's remarks from of Israel as the Jewish national state and its right the Cabinet communiqué, June 23, 2013 to defend itself by itself against its enemies. To our regret, this is a wave that has grown in recent years. "Jewish People Policy Institute leaders Dennis Ross, Stuart Eizenstat, Avinoam Bar-Yosef and Einat For a long time, many efforts have been made, both Wilf briefed ministers on the JPPI's 2012-2013 by the Government of Israel and organizations Annual Assessment and referred to – inter alia – in Israel and around the world to deal with this the challenges facing the Jewish People in light of phenomenon. the changes in our region and in the international However, in order to optimize efforts, coordination arena. between the various active bodies must be The speakers also spoke about the need to deal improved via a comprehensive action plan. with demographic changes in the U.S. in the I would like to thank the JPPI and its leaders, Stuart wake of which there is growing influence by new Eizenstat, Dennis Ross and Avinoam Bar Yosef for population components and elites that have no their ramified and welcome contribution on this tradition of support for Israel. They also discussed matter. In light of the data they presented: changes in U.S. and European Jewish communities, the weakening of their relationship to the State of • I have assigned to the Strategic Affairs Israel and the need to strengthen it. Ministry the overall responsibility for the struggle against de-legitimization, including The speakers addressed the need to devote coordinating the efforts with organizations in resources and develop tools to formulate Israeli Israel and around the world in dealing with the policy in light of the changes in our region and in phenomenon directed against Israel and the the international arena especially in light of the Jewish People. need to boost efforts to maintain links with Jews around the world. • In the framework of its responsibilities, the Strategic Affairs Ministry will coordinate Special emphasis was placed on the need to a professional staff on the struggle against develop tools to boost the effort to preserve de-legitimization. We will see to it that the Israel's status around the world, including in the Ministry will have at its disposal the authority Jewish communities, and struggle against the de- and the tools necessary to carry out this legitimization and boycott of Israel. important mission. Prime Minister Netanyahu summarized the • The Strategic Affairs Ministry will be discussion and said: responsible for developing a strategy and ways "De-legitimization is a very serious phenomenon. to combat de-legitimization and will work to It is a network of incitement against Israel and the implement them." Jewish People in order to undermine the existence

16 the jewish people policy institute

New ZealandNew Australia Oceania Nations Other Morocco Africa South Ethiopia Africa Asia (rest) FSU Asia Europe Rest FSU Ukraine Russia FSU EU Other non- Other EU Hungary Bulgaria Romania Germany k l j m 2,151,000 118,000 195,000 104,000 254,000 312,000 777,000 808,000 140,000 171,000 65,000 70,000 70,000 30,000 5,000 - - - - - 112,000 119,600 296,900 119,000 194,000 159,700 70,200 75,300 20,000 20,000 15,900 67,000 29,500 48,200 2,500 2,500 2,000 9,500 7,500 100 105,000 130,000 173,000 108,000 134,000 97,000 15,000 25,000 57,000 60,000 21,000 34,000 34,000 8,000 3,000 - - - - - i i i i i i 11,375 29,730 42,640 17,709 19,638 39,028 14,312 12,808 7,374 5,265 1,191 ------121 130 173 78 55 37 57 56 6 2 5 ------10-25 5-20 ≥ 15 ≥ 20 ≥ 15 ≥ 15 ≥ 15 ≥ 15 85 65 ------15-24.9 15-24.9 15-24.9 45-54.9 50-75 65-75 50-80 33-75 80 80 60 ------≤ 75 ≤ 50 ≤ 65 ≤ 50 ------2,048 3,545 2,643 7,220 2,432 104 189 948 679 125 100 110 17 51 ------p p 7/450 4/616 1/120 2/691 2/240 3/588 3/226 7/386 ------u u u u u u

18 the jewish people policy institute Kingdom United France non-FSU Europe Nations Other Mexico Brazil Argentina America Latin Canada States United America North Israel World Country

12,633,000 1,331,000 5,400,000 5,686,000 2,582,000 390,000 530,000 107,000 282,000 514,000 286,000 1970 35,000 90,000 a Jewish Population Core Definition 13,848,300 6,014,400 1,138,900 5,425,000 5,800,000 291,000 480,000 181,800 383,200 375,000 2012 66,900 39,200 95,300 b g Projected Projected 13,827,000 5,200,000 6,543,000 1,070,000 5,581,000 278,000 162,000 482,000 364,000 381,000 2020 70,000 90,000 42,000

c i i i i n i capita, capita, 2012 U 36,941 11,875 18,112 49,922 32,312 15,312 35,548 42,734 GDP GDP PPP per per . S - - - - - . $ o

– World Rank Development Index (HDI) Index Human Human 2012 26 85 45 16 61 20 11 3 - - - - - d

Attendance Jewish Day-Jewish Rate (%) Rate recent school school M 50-55 25 75 60 71 97 85 40 55 ost - - - - h a

marriage Rate (%) Rate Recent Recent Recent 35-44.9 25-34.9 25-34.9 25-34.9 25-34.9 15-24.9 M Out- 15-95 1-4.9 ost 5 - - - - b

recent Visited Visited Israel, M Pop. Ever Ever % of of % Jew. Jew. ≤ 50 ≤ 35 ≤ 75 ≤ 50 ≤ 50 ≤ 70 ≤ 70 ≤ 65 ost - - - - a

Aliyah 2012 16,557 2,290 3,089 2,525 1,653 785 569 162 222 235 - - - e f 2011 Parliament Parliament M Of Jewish Jewish Of / S N 108/120 89/1438 13/925 11/329 33/535 embers embers umber 8/413 8/594 eats In eats - 2012 ------t u u s r q

the jewish people policy institute 19 a. Source: Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics, The A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. b. Source (except where stated otherwise): DellaPergola, Sergio, (2013), “World Jewish Population, 2012,” in Arnold Dashefsky and Ira M. Sheskin. (Editors), The American Jewish Year Book, Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 213-283. c. Source: DellaPergola, Sergio, (2011), Jewish Demographic Policies: Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora, The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), pp. 66-67. d. A measure of a country’s development based on health, educational attainment, and real income. Source: Human Development Report 2013- The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World,U nited Nations Development Programme (UNDP). e. Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract Of Israel 2013/1. The data on continents are not sums of mentioned countries but of general Aliyah figures from the continent. f. Including country not specified. g. Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract Of Israel 2013/1. The population is defined on the basis of the permanent (de jure) population, and consists of permanent residents - Israeli citizens and permanent residents without Israeli citizenship (including those who had been out of the country less than one year at the time of the estimate). The data here are according to segmentation of the population by religion and refer only to the number of Jewish residents. h. Based on adjusted response from NJPS 2001. i. Revised population projections for 2020. j. Without Baltic States. k. Including Turkey. l. With Baltic States. m. Without Israel, FSU and Turkey. n. After downward reduction following NJPS 2001. o. Source: Website for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook for 2012. Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP), per capita (international coin). p. Source: Press release by Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, 27/2/2013 - Immigration to Israel in 2012. q. Number of self-identified Jewish members of parliament according to the World Jewish Congress dated June 2011, except where stated otherwise. r. Source: http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/heb/Individual_find.asp s. Source: The Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (2012) Faith on the Hill: The Religious Composition of the 113th Congress. http://www.pewforum.org/Government/Faith-on-the-Hill—The-Religious-Composition-of-the- 113th-Congress.aspx t. Source: The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, Canada. u. Data for previous parliament.

20 the jewish people policy institute 2012-2013 Integrated 3 ‘Net’ Assessment

As previously, JPPI has focused on five key • material Resources: This dimension examines dimensions, Geopolitics, Demography, Identity wealth accumulation and its availability for formation and expression, Bonds within and Jewish causes, Jewish involvement in science between communities, and material resources.1 and technology as key sources of future Some of the reasoning behind this selection is as economic power, and economic growth in follows: Israel. • Geopolitics: What is the 'net' power of the When compared to the previous year,2 our Jewish People in comparison to the threats it assessment for this year confirms prior trends faces? in the first four dimensions but raises some • Demography: Numbers matter for sustaining warnings signals for the fifth, Material Resources, communities and culture, generating political (without changing its gauge). We provide details power, fostering in-marriage, and maintaining in the next section. excellence in education. • Identity Formation and Expression: The 2012-2013 net Assessment of the degree of active pursuit by individuals of the Five Key Dimensions various forms for affirming identification with Two major issues arise when integrating an entire the Jewish collectivity determines much of the year’s trends within these different dimensions. trajectory of Jewish people interests in modern The first is to identify those events or processes times. during the year that are either prime movers or • Bonds Within and Between Communities: key indicators of trend or change. The second is to This dimension examines the nature of the determine how to interpret these factors to arrive fundamental bonds between Israel and other at a net assessment that accurately reflects the Jewish communities as well as the state of balance between challenges, opportunities, and bonds within those communities themselves. responses in each year. In all five dimensions there

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 21 is considerable room for subjectivity in making Geopolitics such determinations. In the past year, geopolitical trends continued to This year, JPPI has continued with planned develop along lines laid out by the Middle East's incremental enhancements to its assessment Arab Spring (that erupted in December 2010), methodology – as part of a larger, multiyear project – the economic crisis in the United States (that by broadening the base regarding both these issues. began in 2008), the American withdrawal from We conducted a Delphi-inspired study as a way to Iraq (completed in December 2011), and the convene a digitally based expert panel.3 A small continuing rise of Asia's international importance. sample of selected and recognized experts in each From a certain perspective, it can be said that dimension was invited to participate.4 Participants Israel's strategic situation has improved. Arab were asked to respond with states are troubled by burdensome domestic and their assessment of specific JPPI economic problems that are threatening their pieces of evidence we conducted a stability. Conventional war initiated against Israel offered on core changes or Delphi-inspired does not seem a likely. The Syrian army is busy trends, as well as to suggest study as with a civil war, the Iran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis others they also thought a way to is threatened, Hamas has lost its base in Syria, and worthy of consideration. The convene a the Arab world is rife with internal Sunni-Shiite information we received has digitally based conflict. At the same time, Israel’s peace treaties been combined with other expert panel with Jordan and Egypt remain in place, relations data sources to provide the with Turkey are no longer at their nadir after following assessments of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s apology over the Gaza short-term trends. Clearly, flotilla incident, the development of gas fields short-term changes in some off Haifa may turn Israel into an energy exporter, dimensions will be more and Obama's visit to Israel signaled the American visible than in others. Yet, this approach – if applied superpower's unequivocal support for Israel. But annually – can provide a detection mechanism for these developments do not change the fact that change that might otherwise escape notice. Israel is located in the heart of a stormy and violent region, which – events of the past year show – is undergoing processes that may be very harmful to Israel and confront it with threatening scenarios: a possible security deterioration, even to the point of comprehensive war, damage to Israel's diplomatic standing, economic damage, and even damage to Israeli-U.S. relations.

22 the jewish people policy institute At the same time that Asia was rising and Russia more sensitive and complicated. Stalled progress was continuing to pose geopolitical challenges to in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Washington, the power and international standing continues to threaten Israel's security and its of the United States – the superpower whose Jewish-democratic character, and helps fan the friendship and aid are so critical to Israel, and flames of the de-legitimization campaign waged which is home to almost half of the Jewish people, against it. who enjoy unprecedented prosperity there – If the current U.S. effort to restart negotiations continue to erode. between Israel and the Palestinians fails, like its So far, President Obama's failure to demonstrate predecessors, the Palestinian side is expected to forceful leadership in the face of North Korean move to replace the model of ‘direct talks under provocations, Iran's persistence in continuing with American mediation’ with its nuclear project, and the terrible blood-letting in an alternative track – the Geopolitics: Syria, which includes the use of chemical weapons, model of a quasi-imposed Israel's reinforces the emerging image of a superpower settlement under multi- fundemental focused on a serious economic crisis and difficult national auspices, condition is tied domestic problems; one that prefers to ‘lead from including a diplomatic- to the fact that behind,’ if at all. The ousters of some autocratic legal campaign in the it is located in rulers in the Middle East did not bring democratic international arena. the heart of rule and liberal governance in their wake. The In order to increase a stormy and regional earthquake paved the way for the rise of pressure on Israel, the violent region political Islam whose performance at the helm Palestinians may, in of government, as seen in the past year, has been extreme circumstances, both disappointing and sobering. return responsibility In the region, state institutions are weakening: the for running the West Bank to the Israelis, and to civil war in Syria and the danger of its disassembly; favor a ‘one state for two peoples’ solution. These the economic and political crisis in Egypt; the developments are likely to undermine the security threat to stability in Jordan and Lebanon; the situation, possibly to the point of a third intifada. failure to achieve stability and internal consensus In contrast to this scenario, progress toward a in Iraq – all this while Iran continues to make permanent Israeli-Palestinian settlement would progress toward achieving a nuclear weapon, likely hold considerable potential for positive with no stabilization or calm in sight. This picture systemic change in Israel's strategic situation. diminishes state-sponsored military threats The American president's visit to Israel earlier this against Israel – with the exception, of course, of year was the jewel in the crown of the "Jerusalem- Iran – but strengthens non-state forces hostile to Washington-U.S. Jewish Community Triangle," it and makes Israel's operating environment even which represents a critical strategic resource for

the jewish people policy institute 23 Israel's and the Jewish people's power. Obama certain Jewish ritual practices such as circumcision gave strong expression to America's support for and ritual slaughter. There has also been a revival of Israel during his visit, but nevertheless did not anti-Semitic rhetoric and sporadic vandalism and conceal differences over Iran and the Palestinians, violence against Jews in some places. The relatively which could easily develop into problematic high number of Jews who say they are considering disagreements. The coming year will likely bring emigration may also indicate some underlying about a maturation of critical processes that will unease. This situation bears watching and the force decisions on these issues, decisions that will European and world Jewish communities ought to likely have a decisive effect on the fate of Israel and start preparing for all eventualities. the Jewish people. Thus, if Israel opens negotiations with the Palestinians in Demography the coming year, it is likely There are some to face American pressure This is the dimension least likely to show short-term disturbing to overcome differences changes. Transitions accumulate over several years, signals coming between the sides, and and only several years of data will elucidate what out of Europe: sensitive questions are constitutes a trend and what is more transitory. A relatively likely to arise on matters high number of The overall view of the expert panel was guardedly dear to Jews everywhere, Jews say they optimistic about recent data and trends. particularly the future are considering of Jerusalem. American The previously identified trends along with new emigration Jewry may find itself studies released during the past year showed between a rock and a hard few if any departures from previously identified place if Israel decides to processes. Jewish fertility in Israel, even among launch a military strike on the non-Haredim, remains higher than the OECD Iran against Washington's wishes. average, and is one of the salient factors pointing toward satisfactory demographic trends – if they In regard to the security and well being of other continue. Jewish fertility continues to rise (it now Jewish communities, there are some disturbing stands at 2.98 per woman) while the fertility of signals coming out of Europe. On one hand, many the non-Jewish population continues to decline European Jews believe that they can comfortably (though the fertility of Muslim women in Israel is continue to live and practice their professions in still higher than that of Jewish women). Europe, and one can also point to new positive developments such as the opening of new cultural There is also little change in several trends at work institutions especially among the most engaged in the Diaspora – with more mixed implications 5 Jewish core. At the same time, some European for Jewish demographic policy. A study on Jewish courts and political institutions have challenged families in the New York region showed more

24 the jewish people policy institute Jewish households and more Jewish members pessimistic worried that Haredi populations tend within them.6 The study attributed this growth to not to identify with Jewish collective projects the following: an increase in the Haredi birthrate, a as undertaken by the majority or mainstream rise in life expectancy, internal migration of young Jewish population, and appeared to more heavily people, and a blurring of boundaries between weight trends in inter-marriage, and inferred more Jews and non-Jews. Most of the panel participants negative interpretations of the increasing ‘fluidity’ did not see these factors as forming a significant of Jewish identity and of the changing forms of change. identification. At the same time, the more troubling trends A perceived trend toward a hollowing of the middle for inter-marriage and the patterns of Jewish range on the Jewish engagement continuum was identification for the children of such unions near unanimously viewed also continue. In the absence of active policies as disturbing. The shares A perceived targeting the identification and affiliation trends of Jews who are either trend: of these children, these will be injurious to Jewish Orthodox or largely A hollowing population policy interests. unengaged increased of the middle at the expense of those range on Identity Formation who occupy the center. the continuum and Expression Polarization was viewed of Jewish as a source of potential engagement Identity, itself a dimension of Jewish people well instability within the being, is also deeply integral to the other four Jewish community, and major dimensions. Overall, respondents saw this suggests that support a generally positive set of trends. At the same to the middle is an time, the majority of participants indicated a net important ingredient in balance of no change from the previous year. This policy making. was less because of a perception of actual stasis This finding also reinforced a message received and more due to uncertainty about how specific from the respondents to the Jewish Demography trends may play out. questionnaire: that population policy and identity Those who expressed a sense of positive change are deeply connected. This reinforces a plea made appeared to place weight on evidence of growth in our assessment last year for better data on in Orthodox and Haredi populations in the U.S., out-marriage, education, and identity of various and that many of those not affiliated with formal sectors of the Jewish community. Only then will institutions still identify Jewishly. They also pointed it be possible to engage fully in evidence-based to more access portals for Jewish engagement and policy planning in this dimension. identification. Some of those who were more

the jewish people policy institute 25 Two factors not polled on were volunteered as to the Diaspora (e.g., Women of the Wall,) also being of importance by several. These were the served to reinforce perceptions of commonality. phenomenon of Diaspora youth travel to Israel7 as This was a counterpoise to the irritation and a positive trend, and the unresolved issues between insensitivity perceived by some with how life Israel and the Palestinians as a negative. Though in the Diaspora was portrayed, for example, in a geopolitical issue, the argument was that the government advertising campaigns advocating intensification of legal, culture, and ethical aspects the return of expatriate Israelis. The outcome of of the conflict (to the diminution of physical the recent Israeli election, in which forces having security concerns) generates tension between a more liberal outlook on Judaism were propelled aspects of identity and values especially important to positions of greater influence and visibility, likely to younger Diaspora Jews contribute to narrowing perceptions of a ‘gap’ and specifics of Israeli between Israeli and non-Israeli Jews. The outcome policy that they perceive of recent Respondents largely accepted recent evidence as running counter to Israeli either refuting or diminishing the effective force those values. elections likely of ‘distancing’ claims, however with caveats. One contributed respondent likened this evidence to the passage of to narrowing Bonds Stage II trials in pharmaceutical testing: heartening, perceptions of Between and but by no means sufficient to indicate readiness for a ‘gap’ between Within general acceptance. The principal indeterminacy Israeli and Communities might be stated as a tug-of-war between the non-Israeli Jews ‘Birthright Bump’ of enhanced contact and Relations between Jewish engagement between the youth of the various communities saw no Jewish communities (especially North America) great shift in the past on one hand; on the other are the pressures placed year. This is not to say that important forces were on the young in reconciling Israeli realities and not at work. Continued travel and exposure of policies with many of the tenets that frame their Jewish communities to one another, along with outlook as individuals and as a generation. The signs of possible changes in the culture within consulting panel members either saw no change in Israel, tended to reinforce bonds. In the material polling results from the past year that delineated sphere, cross-investment by Jews of one country differences in political attitudes and outlooks in ventures being carried out by Jews in another, between Israeli and Diaspora youth, or felt that along with other forms of financial transfer, are the results did not fully capture a more complex both indicators of, and in themselves forces that set of inter-communal interactions. For U.S. Jews, enhance bonds. Willingness on the part of Israel’s Israel-related issues did not appear to factor much authorities to acknowledge issues of great interest at the ballot box, but this could be viewed as less a

26 the jewish people policy institute reflection of disinterest or disaffection than of the to planned steps to increase competitiveness and perceived relative strength of Israel and its standing reduce wealth concentration in the Israeli economy. in U.S. political discourse. Panelists saw no net change in the health of the Respondents found some hopeful signs in evidence R&D-intensive sectors in Israel. They did however, of an inclination on the part of some Orthodox tend to place more credence in reports showing rabbis to at least acknowledge and conduct dialogue worrying trends in Israel’s educational system with other streams of Judaism, but characterized than in recent international test results indicating this as being of limited scope when viewing Israeli improvement. They saw the latter as possibly being Orthodoxy as a whole. It is worth noting that the due to selective testing. On the other hand, there timing of the consultation meant that respondents was not much concern with recent suggestions of couldn't take into full consideration continuing new a decline in achievement developments such as the fierce debate over drafting by Jewish students in the The increased Haredi Jews to military service, the exclusion of U.S., with most seeing this prominence Haredi parties from government,8 the battle for the as a concern only if borne of mega- chief rabbinate, developments in the Women of the out by longer-term trends. donors reduces Wall issue, etc. The evidence should be reviewed in This consulting panel centralization a year’s time. was not polled on the of community development of the resources Material Resources large offshore natural according gas deposits discovered to need and This was the year that saw domestic economic and in 2009-2010. The opportunity social concerns trump security in Israel’s electoral geopolitics panelists all politics. In our discussion last year we pointed out mentioned that this was of the rising debate about how to share an economic tremendous importance pie that, while expanding, was being divided in for Israel. In this year’s ‘net’ assessment we have ways that led to the social protests of 2011. This chosen not to weight this aspect of material year the assumptions about the growth of that pie resources too heavily. This is in no way to gainsay are as much in question, and it is quite likely that the potential importance of these energy assets. economic growth will decline relative to previous However, in the short term, there are questions years. The steps that have already been, and will about how the gas will be developed, whether the be, taken to cover 2012’s large deficit will affect the range of issues affecting export possibilities are entire public, but especially the middle and lower resolved, the future balance of global supply and classes. At the same time, Finance Ministry and demand as well as in the Mediterranean basin, how other government spokespersons emphasized the well the new sovereign wealth fund operates and, benefits that would accrue to the consumer due as always, the security of the facilities.

the jewish people policy institute 27 In regard to Jewish resources in the Diaspora, the communities gauge in a slightly more positive sentiment of the panelists was that the residual direction. effects of recent financial crises were dissipating as This year’s assessment, however, points to several was suggested last year. As opposed to this, the New trends that bear watching in the short term for York Jewish Federation reported in a recent study early warning of possible change. By dimension that more than 560,000 Jews (200,000 households) these would include: are poor or live on the border of poverty in the New York Area.9 In addition, 35% of Jewish children Geopolitics: in the NY area are subject to poverty. These figures indicate a significant rise in Jewish poverty rates in • Iran’s nuclearization. the New York area over the last decade. • The possible implosion of Syria and the Most saw an improving trend for community resulting consequences. giving and philanthropy, both locally and more • The transfer of advanced weaponry to generally. There was more concern with the Hezbollah. forms of giving. The increased prominence of mega-donors by its nature reduces centralization Demography: of community resources and the (at least • Indicators of change in degree and nature of theoretical) power to shift them according to Jewish identification by children of both in- need and opportunity. But this trend might also and out-married couples. be a response to a desire on the part of donors for better assessments of the effectiveness of those resources. It is not yet clear how the transition Identity: to new fundamental forms of funding Jewish • Whether the center of the spectrum of Jewish people priorities (and how such priorities may be engagement reverses a declining trend. determined) will play out. Community Bonds: Current Status and Trends • Signs of strain on young Diaspora Jews to Watch regarding Israel-Palestine issues.

Figure 1 shows how we set the dials on the Jewish Material Resources: people 'dashboard' as of mid-2013. The events of the past year and continuing trends were not • Trends in funding availability to meet Diaspora of a magnitude to warrant much change in our community-level needs. previous assessment (Figure 2). The only exception • Growth, innovation, and export trends in is that we moved the dial on the bonds between Israel’s R&D-intensive sector.

28 the jewish people policy institute 2012-2013

Geopolitics

Demography Bonds

JPPI Identity Resources

Figure 1. Characterization of Key Drivers A ecting the Jewish People in the Year 2012-13

2011-2012

Geopolitics

Demography Bonds

JPPI Identity Resources

Figure 2. Characterization of Key Drivers A ecting the Jewish People in the Year 2011-12

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 29 Notes Comprehensive Report," UJA - Federation of NY, June 2012. 1. JPPI's Annual Assessment for 2011-2012 provides 7. We have responded to this point by adding it to the a more detailed discussion of the methodology list of indicators we track to make the final overall behind both the short-term net assessments and the assessment. longer term trends and scenarios (“Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment”, in Annual Assessment 2011-2012.) 8. The religious parties did, however, increase the size of their Knesset representation. 2. Ibid. 9. Ukeles, Jacob B., Steven M.Cohen, Ron Miller (2013), 3. A Delphi study is a structured consultation that poses "Jewish Community Study of New York: 2011 questions to a selected group of experts who then Special Report on Poverty," UJA - Federation of NY, respond with their assessment. In a second round, June 2011. the anonymous results – both the voting breakdown and the reasoning provided by respondents – are provided to the same group who may then refine their own responses. They may change their vote in light of the updated information or remain with their original answers. This allows participants to respond freely without personal identification, provides a gauge for the firmness of the beliefs expressed, and can be used to develop a factor-weighting scheme by giving insight into which among many factors participants base their vote. In this study the respondents were scholars, policy experts, and leaders of Jewish people organizations. This is a 'quasi'-Delphi because rather than seek better forecasts, the usual object of a Delphi, we wished to use this format to conduct a long-distance focus group. 4. Twenty-seven invitees provided responses to the Delphi instrument. Across the five groups this represented a response rate of approximately 30-50%. 5. For a detailed discussion of the concept of Jewish People demographic policy, see Sergio DellaPergola, (2011), "Jewish Demographic Policies," Jewish People Policy Institute (http://jppi.org.il/news/96/76/ Jewish-Demographic-Policies/.) 6. Cohen, Steven M., Jacob B. Ukeles, and Ron Miller, "Jewish Community Study of New York:

30 the jewish people policy institute Part One: Geopolitics

4 Combating De-Legitimization

Introduction targets the connection between the Jewish people and Israel. The project, with the participation of Recent weeks have brought two reminders that top-level experts, examined the phenomenon the international campaign of de-legitimization in every major field in which it finds expression against the State of Israel is "alive and kicking" and explored in depth its historical, intellectual, and still posing a strategic threat. In early May, cultural, and sociological dimensions. This paper renowned scientist, Stephen Hawking, announced includes some conclusions drawn from it. he would boycott the June 2013 Israeli Presidential Conference after having initially accepted an invitation to appear there. And later in the same The modern Face month, the BBC published its annual survey (of of De-Legitimization 26,000 respondents in 25 countries) in which More than a decade has elapsed since the Israel was ranked fourth from last in the index of September 2001 Durban Conference, a catalyzing countries (among 16 countries and the EU) whose event after which the de-legitimization dam burst. influence in the world is "mainly negative" (52% – The conference against racism, held under UN only North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran rated worse). auspices, gathered some 1,500 non-governmental Such reminders are often found in BDS (Boycott, organizations (NGOs), who called for the Divestment, and Sanctions) activities, including imposition of "total and complete isolation" on cultural boycotts by artists, academic boycotts, the "apartheid state" Israel. It took several years for and economic boycott initiatives against Israeli Israel and the Jewish Diaspora to fully grasp that companies and products. it was not merely a piece of political theater that For the past two-and-a-half years, the Jewish could be ignored, but rather a new type of strategic People Policy Institute has been working on a threat. policy-oriented project on the phenomenon of de- At its heart, the de-legitimization phenomenon legitimization against Israel, which among others, is an expression of the denial of the Jews' right

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 33 to sovereign self-determination in a state of their Israel and characterized by 'post' discourses own in their historic homeland. Denial of this sort – post-modernism, post-nationalism, post- has beset the Jewish people for generations, and colonialism and post-Zionism. It is less tolerant has dogged the State of Israel since its creation to expressions of ethno-religious nationalism, in the form of rejection, hatred, alienation, and and gives precedence to the human rights boycott. Yet the modern face of de-legitimization discourse over the national-security discourse. is different and more dangerous. It is focused This is a world of globalization, of a networked on the realm of ideas, and from there spreads society that allows for the mass dissemination into the world of action, knocks on the doors and amplification of messages without requiring of mainstream public discourse in the West, vetting through ethical and legal filters. This is a is global, networked, world that gives increasing power to non-state and found in every actors – from the individual citizen through non- The prism of major public sphere governmental organizations, civil-society forces, the conflict internationally. For the and the United Nations, which has become one of allows criticism de-legitimization system, the main forums of de-legitimization against Israel. of Israel to the entire world is a front, In Europe, the demographic and political weight emanate from a every field of endeavor of Muslims is growing steadily. It contributes to legitimate space offers a forum for the creation and dissemination of de-legitimizing of political confrontation, and every content and allows for the establishment of anti- disagreement world citizen (including Semitic 'green-red' alliances between Islamic Jews and Israelis) is a and European far-left forces. These alliances are potential solider. Its goal responsible for most de-legitimization campaigns is to ostracize Israel, and in the West. turn it into a 'pariah' To this foundation we must add the continuing state, as South Africa was in its day. It seeks to conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. weaken and marginalize the Jewish state until it This conflict – for which no solution is in sight, withers away. It also targets a central element in even as the years go by – is the main fuel for the identity of Diaspora Jewry. the fire of de-legitimization, the overwhelming Today, particularly in Europe, it is easier than in majority of which is waged through the conflict’s the past for the de-legitimization phenomenon prism. There are those who fan the flames out to take root, grow, trickle down and gain traction. of political motivations (to influence Israeli This is a world that is moving further and further policy as it relates to the Palestinians). But many, away from Holocaust awareness and from a apparently most, of those doing the fanning are connection to the Bible. It is developing new motivated by ideology, or a combination of the patterns of modern anti-Semitism directed against ideological and political. Israel is accused not only

34 the jewish people policy institute of obstructing peace, but also of an immorality Awakening to the Danger – rooted in its very existence, of colonialism, What's Missing? racism, of denying human rights and national rights, of war crimes and of threatening world In recent years, we have seen a growing awareness, peace. An entire conceptual vocabulary – with in Israel and among Jewish communities, of the "apartheid" front and center – has developed threat. Israeli governmental and non-governmental around the conflict to denounce Israel. Some of bodies, Jewish organizations around the world, it has become acceptable in Western discourse. and private individuals have joined the war against Accordingly, in recent years, public opinion polls de-legitimization. Studies have been conducted, in Europe have consistently reflected a strongly resources have been allocated, special desks have negative image of Israel. been set up, and projects have been launched with We should not underestimate the danger this this as their main mission. Successes in phenomenon poses. While it is not presented, There has been a series the struggle on the whole, as an explicit denial of Israel's of important successes against tangible right to exist as the nation state of the Jewish in this struggle. BDS manifestations of people, it implicitly raises (at the very least) initiatives and displays of de-legitimization questions about Israel's legitimacy. The prism de-legitimization against have not yet led of the conflict provides a convenient basis for Israel, such as marches to significant this kind of propaganda since it allows criticism or flotillas, have been progress in of Israel to emanate from a legitimate space of thwarted. The road is no restraining it in political disagreement. Crossing the line into longer unencumbered the realm the realm of de-legitimization happens in subtle for the "Israel Apartheid of ideas ways, and therefore allows for enlistment of Week" de-legitimization international supporters who are party to the campaign, which for the past eight years has been criticism of Israel but who are not always aware held on countless campuses and in dozens of that their criticism borders on, or is tainted Western cities. Now, instead, this event is regularly with, de-legitimization. A negative dynamic is accompanied by an effective counter-campaign developing in the 'grey area' between criticism mounted by Israeli and Jewish groups. and de-legitimization that feeds off the cumulative effect of blackening Israel's name. Nevertheless, the successes in the struggle against In European polls of recent years, a majority of tangible manifestations of de-legitimization have respondents conditioned their recognition of not yet led to significant progress in restraining it Israel as a Jewish state on the establishment of in the realm of ideas. Many groups dealing with a Palestinian state. the issue define de-legitimization differently, and as a result employ different, sometimes conflicting

the jewish people policy institute 35 strategies to confront it. In Israel, despite attempts would not only deflect the struggle's focus from to crystalize where formal responsibility for dealing more dangerous elements, it would also draw the with the issue lies, there is still no clear, accepted effort into a sensitive and controversial political single address to coordinate among various area – also within Israel itself – and undermine government agencies and guide and inform them the struggle's prospects of success with important with a coherent strategy. There is no correlation sectors, particularly with the majority who do not between the responsibilities agencies bear and see themselves as denying Israel's right to exist. the authority and resources allocated to them. Thus, distinguishing correctly between legitimate Coordination with Jewish organizations abroad critics of Israeli policy and de-legitimizers is also needs to be improved. essential. Israel also bears responsibility for ensuring that it does come across as an intolerant The Challenge of Defining and country that tries to silence its critics. Distinguishing between As mentioned above, de-legitimization is, at its De-Legitimization and core, the denial of the Jewish collective's right of Legitimate Criticism self-determination in its own sovereign nation state in its historic homeland. This definition has Those involved in the several aspects: it assumes that Judaism is not only Criticism is de-legitimization issue a religion, but also a nation; that it is appropriate not limited to must adapt a working and just for the Jewish people to define itself within Israel's policies definition that is neither a sovereign political entity of its own; that a certain or conduct but too narrow nor too broad. piece of land (without getting into the political rather portrays Too narrow a definition of argument over the future of Judea, Samaria and it as having been de-legitimization would the Golan) is the essential venue for this self- founded on a deep focus efforts exclusively on determination. Denial of any of these individual moral flaw that declared and outspoken aspects, or all of them together, is therefore places a question enemies of Israel, but considered de-legitimization of the State of Israel mark beside its would miss many facets as the nation state of the Jewish people. of the phenomenon that legitimacy Even this apparently straightforward definition are less explicit but no less raises quite a few questions and, for several reasons, dangerous. On the other is less than adequate. Most importantly, it makes it hand, too broad a definition would risk rendering difficult to identify de-legitimization’s ‘grey areas’: the effort against de-legitimization into an the implied or camouflaged, which are sometimes impracticable challenge. It would define the arena only identified in hindsight. Apparently, the reason of struggle too widely, bunching honest critics for camouflaging de-legitimization is that explicit together with malicious deniers. Such a definition de-legitimization of Israel is still not "politically

36 the jewish people policy institute correct" in the West, though this does not mitigate which are taken from the Israeli-Palestinian the seriousness of the phenomenon, or its potential context) such as: 'Apartheid state' (a clear dangers. attempt to portray Israel as a second South Thus, even though the grey area between criticism Africa); 'Nazi state' (comparing Israel to the and de-legitimization is, by nature, quite wide and Nazis and appropriating their symbols is lacks clear boundaries, and despite the difficulty very widespread); 'racist state'; a state that in examining the intent of those who speak commits 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing'; against Israel, we cannot avoid using indicators to 'war criminal' (as distinct from a specific identify and diagnose situations and phenomena case), a state responsible for 'crimes against of de-legitimization that occur in this area. These humanity,' among others. Whoever uses these indicators can identify the denial of the Jewish terms contributes, deliberately or not, to the collective's right to self-determination within dissemination of de-legitimization. a sovereign nation state, even if it is not stated C. A record of statements or actions that have explicitly. de-legitimization significance: This is an The indicators are as follows: important tool that can dispel doubts and concerns over the intent of those who attack A. Essentialist criticism: This is criticism that is Israel. In quite a few not limited to Israel's policies or conduct but cases, those who Some who rather goes, whether explicitly or implicitly, to attack Israel from the attack Israel the root of the state's being, and portrays it position of seemingly from the as having been founded on a deep moral flaw legitimate criticism position of that cannot be corrected. This kind of criticism have a record of clear seemingly places a question mark beside the legitimacy de-legitimization. legitimate of Israel, if not an exclamation mark beside its It is necessary to criticism have a illegitimacy, and is therefore considered de- scrutinize this record record of clear legitimization. and bring it to light. de-legitimization B. Conceptual vocabulary: Perpetrators of D. Double standard: de-legitimization have developed a coded Applying a double discourse to express their essentialist criticism. standard does not This conceptual vocabulary has spread and is necessarily meet the used not only by the perpetrators themselves, core definition of de-legitimization but rather but also by those who disseminate it and depends on context and interpretation. There contribute to it unwittingly, out of a lack of are different varieties of double standard with understanding. The conceptual language regard to Israel, and there are also double used against Israel includes expressions (all of standards with respect to its right to "the

the jewish people policy institute 37 benefit of the doubt," and to its right to a fair are known de-legitimizers who strive to and equal opportunity to state its position. ostracize, isolate, and weaken Israel until Double standards with regard to Israel should it withers and collapses. Such boycotts be considered expressions of de-legitimization, are based on double standards and are or contributing to it, only in clear-cut deployed against bodies and individuals cases, extreme cases that are based on an solely because of their national affiliation; indisputably known lie, or in combination they ignore the question of whether with other indicators of de-legitimization. they have the potential to influence Israeli government policy. E. Practical indicators beyond the realm of discourse: • Lawfare – This phenomenon has become an increasingly widespread anti- • Boycotts of Israel or of Israeli goods Israel weapon in recent years. Behind it (BDS) – Any type of economic, cultural, academic or other lies the intent to criminalize Israel, that boycott is a dangerous is, to paint it as an outlaw entity to be In many cases weapon that moves the punished according to law, just as one we can see struggle against Israel to fights against any criminal. Lawfare is empirically: populist ground in which applied against the State of Israel in The source anybody can participate international legal forums (for example, and purpose actively. Despite the the Palestinian Authority's threat to of the claim that boycott is bring Israel to dock at the International boycotts are a legitimate tool for Criminal Court on charges of war indeed to applying pressure on Israel crimes), as well as against Israeli citizens de-legitimize "to end the occupation," (mainly current and former government it should be considered officials, army officers, and members of an indicator of potential the security establishment). Obviously, de-legitimization. In not every lawsuit necessarily meets the many – perhaps most – cases, we can definitional criteria of de-legitimization, see empirically that the source and but a significant portion do, particularly purpose of the boycotts are indeed to in their systematic assault on Israel's de-legitimize. This is not surprising. After right to defend itself. The initiative for a all, Israel is the only state in the world substantial portion of these cases comes with a question mark hovering above from clear de-legitimizers. its legitimacy. Most boycotts against Israel are part of a clear de-legitimization strategy, and those who engineer them

38 the jewish people policy institute Operational Conclusions process, its legitimacy to maneuver expands (including the legitimacy of its security Today, awareness of the de-legitimization problem operations). is well developed in Israel and among the Jewish 3. It is important to differentiate between people, and many important actions are being different target audiences and to employ taken to fight it. Most of its practical expressions, strategies appropriate to each: particularly in the legal and economic arenas, have been thwarted so far, or have failed to gain • Perpetrators of de-legitimization or strategic traction. At the same time, we cannot those who knowingly contribute to it: conclude that the danger has been averted, or That is, those who deliberately perpetrate, allow ourselves to become complacent. The de- develop, and disseminate the de- legitimization campaign has not been stopped in legitimization of the realm of ideas and we do not know when and Israel. In dealing It is crucial how the threat will develop in new dimensions, with those in to have an even from non-state sources. Further, Israel and this category, agreed upon its friends still lack a clear strategy and organized it is necessary definition of the operational plan for the battle against the to work to phenomenon phenomenon. Following are a number of steps expose their true as a kind of that should be taken: intentions with 'compass' for a "naming and 1. It is crucial that those dealing with the issue differentiating shaming" policy unite, to the extent possible, under an agreed between and through definition of the phenomenon that can serve de-legitimization a counter de- as a kind of 'compass' for fighting it. They and legitimate, legitimization should use the same criteria and toolbox to substantive campaign against differentiate between de-legitimization and criticism them. Offensive legitimate, substantive criticism. m e a s u r e s , 2. It is important to understand that the struggle including legal against de-legitimization is not only a matter ones, should also be taken against them. of public diplomacy and hasbara, but also To this end, tracking and implementation one of policy. It requires a more fundamental mechanisms are required, some of them treatment in the realm of basic perceptions. non-governmental. Because the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the • Those who contribute to the phenomenon’s main fuel, it is necessary to phenomenon without having a de- understand that whenever Israel is perceived legitimizing intent per se, but rather out as initiating and working toward a diplomatic

the jewish people policy institute 39 of ignorance or for other reasons: For of their claims. Even though such Israelis this group it is necessary to sharpen the and Jews should also be considered de- dividing line between criticism and de- legitimizers, in responding to them there legitimization and to clarify that certain is reason to distinguish between internal terms are nothing other than instruments debate (that has existed for generations) of de-legitimization. ‘within the family’ (even though it is sometimes destructive) on one hand, • Wider audiences exposed to anti- and external criticism on the other. Such Israel propaganda: It is important not to leave the field open, but to show a a response requires drawing a difficult presence and confront de-legitimization distinction between those who have in every arena in which it the good of the Jewish people at heart, finds expression (media, but who assign it an anti/non-Zionist cyberspace, campuses, expression, and those who seek an ill fate There is reason civil society organizations, for the Jewish people. Moreover, some of to distinguish etc.). We must these arguments take place within the between differentiate between the democratic fabric of the State of Israel, internal minority that has a certain which we should be careful not to harm. debate ‘within amount of knowledge • Potential partners in the battle against the family’ about the situation de-legitimization: We must seek out and external in Israel and Israeli- and develop partnerships with as criticism Palestinian relations, and many individuals and organizations as the majority that has possible prepared to join in fighting neither knowledge nor de-legitimization. We must work with interest. Moreover, and no them to establish ‘counter networks’ to less importantly, to this wider audience de-legitimization networks. It is vital to we must proactively present Israel in a maximally activate the potential (currently favorable light: as a state that embodies far from being so) latent in the Jewish positive values and contributes to the people, as well as the synergy between it good of the world. and the State of Israel. At the same time, • Jews and Israelis who take part in there is considerable benefit in involving the de-legitimization campaign: The non-Jews and Western liberal elements in perpetrators of de-legitimization strive the effort to combat the phenomenon. to conscript Israelis and Jews to the 4. Past strategies and steps already taken should ranks of the anti-Israel struggle in order be analyzed to determine what works and to strengthen the credibility and validity what does not.

40 the jewish people policy institute 5. Even though the battle is a global one, through various creative means, including it is important to focus efforts on those visual media. Furthermore, it is important to arenas and populations where the greatest circulate messages with emotional appeal. potential for damage lies – Western Europe, 9. Finally, it is recommended that the Israeli the United Nations (a critical main arena for Government appoint a single senior de-legitimization but one that is relatively cabinet level figure to bear responsibility neglected), the ‘heads’ of the de-legitimization for coordinating the struggle against de- movement (a preliminary mapping shows legitimization. He or she should be allotted that the number of individuals and main the necessary tools to do so, and report organizations perpetrating de-legitimization directly to the prime minister. This official in the West is not large), civil-society elements, should be charged with developing – based and social networks. We should carefully on the conclusions and recommendations of select cases for which there is a good chance of all those involved in the subject – a strategy success through adopting an offensive strategy, and operational directions for the fight against in the courts, in the media, and elsewhere. de-legitimization, and with ensuring their 6. Updated narratives about what the State of implementation. Israel represents should be developed – an intellectual narrative of modern Zionism, in whose development respected Jewish and non-Jewish intellectuals should be partners, as well as a narrative that presents and markets Israel as a vital, creative, and vibrant state that contributes to ‘repairing the world’ and to its greater welfare. 7. Alongside the centrality of the United States to Israel and the Jewish people, we should strive to develop relations with rising global powers such as China and India, which are not characterized by the classical anti-Semitism prevalent in Europe. 8. We should utilize technological tools, including cyberspace and the blogosphere, to establish and connect networks, to disseminate information and float ideas

the jewish people policy institute 41

Israel and the Jewish People: 5 Geopolitical Developments, 2012-2013

Introduction Israel. The Syrian army is embroiled in civil war, the Iran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis is threatened, The battle for votes ahead of the January 2013 Hamas has lost its base in Syria, and the Arab Israeli elections focused on social and domestic world is largely focused on internal Sunni-Shiite issues. This focus allowed Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) conflict. Meanwhile, the peace treaties with and Naftali Bennett (HaBayit HaYehudi) to come Jordan and Egypt remain in place, and following together in a united front during the negotiations Prime Minister Netanyahu’s apology over the to form a governing coalition, and even after the Mavi Marmara incident, relations with Turkey are government took office (even though the former no longer at a low ebb. The development of gas supports the two-state solution to the Israeli- fields off the Haifa coast continues successfully, Palestinian conflict and the latter vigorously promising to turn Israel into an energy exporter. opposes it). During the election campaign, the And Obama's visit to Israel signalled the region public and most of its leaders behaved as if Israel's that the American superpower's support for the immediate and more distant situation did not Jewish state is unequivocal. pose weighty challenges and dilemmas requiring Yet these developments, positive as they may be decisive action. This curious phenomenon can from Israel's perspective, do not alter the reality be explained as symptomatic of denial, and deep that Israel is located at the heart of a turbulent pessimism over Israel's ability to affect, through and violent region, which is undergoing dramatic its policies, the threatening processes taking place changes and processes with the potential to cause around it. serious harm. Israel faces a constellation of perilous Some believe that Israel's strategic situation has scenarios: improved, that Arab states are preoccupied with • security deterioration – A deterioration destabilizing domestic and economic problems, of the security situation at Israel's borders; and it is highly unlikely that they would – any terrorist actions against Israel and Jewish time soon – launch a conventional war against targets overseas, a missile attack against

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 43 population centers in Israel; use of chemical United States (though these, at this stage, are weapons; and in an extreme case, the outbreak far from dominant) in which Israel is perceived of comprehensive war in which Israel would as detrimental to U.S. interests. have to face concerted attacks on several This chapter formulates the main dilemmas facing fronts, including the home front (for example, Israel in the geopolitical arena in light of the past retaliation for Israeli attacks in Syria, following year’s developments. This is important because it an Israeli or American action against Iran, or sharpens the distinction between international in the wake of a deterioration in relations with issues over which Israel has no real influence and the Palestinians, etc.). those in which Israeli decisions can improve its • Damage to Israel's diplomatic standing – The situation and advance its interests. A fatalistic possibility of a widening approach would likely push Israel into diplomatic perception that Israel is paralysis and into a policy of ‘do nothing’, even The power and responsible for the lack of though deciding not to decide carries a cost as international a solution to the Israeli- well as a benefit. standing of the Palestinian conflict; the United States The dilemmas are broad in scope and the erosion of the standing continues to consequences of not making a proactive choice of its American ally; the erode between alternatives will likely have a paralyzing collapse of the Jerusalem- effect leading to a ‘wait until the dust settles’ Cairo strategic axis; and policy. But the dust will probably not settle any the rise of political Islam time soon, so Israel will have to navigate and make in the Middle East. decisions in an unpredictable and dangerous • Economic damage – Sanctions imposed on geopolitical arena. The number of ‘moving parts’ Israeli products, tourism, investments, etc. in the complex international system makes the resulting from a security deterioration and/ task of managing a foreign policy enormously or as part of the de-legitimization campaign complicated. Weighty decisions are imperative being waged against Israel. given the geopolitical developments in the following four complexes: • Damage to relations with the United States – If the scenario of an Israeli attack on Iran A. The Global Complex: The ‘world order’ against U.S. wishes becomes a reality; if the in place throughout the Cold War and United States reaches an agreement with Iran then characterized by years of American unacceptable to Israel; or if Israel does not meet dominance after the collapse of the Soviet American expectations in making progress Union has made way for ‘world disorder’ toward an Israel-Palestinian agreement. All that has yet to crystallize into a stable and these could strengthen existing trends in the functioning structure. Along with the rise of

44 the jewish people policy institute Asia and the geopolitical challenge Russia so that it is impossible to envision how the continues to pose for Washington, the power situation will calm down and stabilize in the and international standing of the United near future: the civil war in Syria and the States – the superpower whose friendship and danger that the country will break apart; the assistance to Israel is so critical and which is economic and political crisis in Egypt; the home to almost half the Jewish people who threat to the stability of Jordan and Lebanon; live in unprecedented prosperity – continues the failure to achieve stability and internal to erode. President Obama's approach to agreement in Iraq – all this is occurring while date, not to show forceful leadership in the Iran continues to progress toward achieving face of North Korean provocations, Iran's a nuclear weapon and steps up its subversive persistence in pursuing its nuclear project, efforts to exploit the and the blood-letting in Syria that includes upheaval to deepen The term the use of chemical weapons, exacerbates the its regional influence. ‘Arab Spring’ emerging image of a superpower focused on a This picture reduces has revealed burdensome economic crisis and on difficult state military itself to be internal problems, and which prefers to ‘lead threats against Israel a vision of from behind,’ if at all. but strengthens the distant hostile non-state B. The Middle East Complex: The term ‘Arab future at best Spring’ has revealed itself to be a vision of forces and turns the distant future at best. The overthrow of Israel's operating autocrats has not brought about democratic environment into an rule and liberal governance. Along with even more sensitive the release of popular sentiments seeking and complex space. freedom, economic opportunity, respect and C. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Complex: The governability, the regional earthquake also lack of a solution to the conflict continues to unleashed fundamentally anti-democratic pose a threat to Israel's security and its Jewish- and anti-Western forces that have become democratic character, and helps to fan the dominant. Thus, the way was paved for the de-legitimization phenomena against it. If rise of political Islam, but the manner in which the current U.S. effort to restart negotiations it has functioned and its accomplishments at between Israel and the Palestinians fails as the helm of power have been disappointing previous efforts have, the Palestinian side can and sobering. Anchors that long provided be expected to move to drop the ‘direct talks relative strategic stability are weakening. under American mediation’ model in favor Inter-communal and other tensions have been of an alternative course – a quasi-imposed stirred up and undermine state frameworks solution under multinational sponsorship or,

the jewish people policy institute 45 in the extreme case, adopt policy that ‘gives focus on Asia – particularly the rise of China, and back the keys’ and the responsibility for the predictions that the United States in short order West Bank to Israel and calls for a ‘one state for will no longer be dependent on Middle Eastern two peoples’ paradigm. These developments oil or on imported energy resources of any kind. could easily worsen the security situation to The continuing disengagement from Afghanistan the point that a third intifada breaks out. On (following the Iraq withdrawal), and the avoidance, the other hand, progress toward a permanent so far, of direct military involvement in Syria point Israeli-Palestinian solution is likely to have to an American desire to close the chapter of its the potential for systemic change in Israel's active military intervention in the region. strategic situation and even to offer an answer, This sharpens Israel's dilemma: a significant albeit a partial one, to the American-led peace process is likely to require new challenges that result painful concessions and pressure from Washington The U.S. desires from the Arab revolts. to reach a settlement. On the other hand, American to close D. The Jerusalem- disengagement would likely encourage less friendly the chapter Washington-U.S. Jewish elements to vie for control of the peace process of its active Community Triangle and to change the format from direct negotiations military Complex: This relationship between the parties to one less comfortable for intervention in is a critical strategic asset Israel (international, United Nations framework, the Middle East to Israel and the Jewish etc.). No less importantly, regional players are people's power. During wondering how far the United States is prepared to his Israel visit, President go to stop Iran's nuclear program, or if it will adopt Obama gave powerful a less passive Syria policy. America's non-aggressive expression of America's response to North Korean belligerence – in the support of the Jewish eyes of Middle Eastern countries – is another test state, but he did not cover up differences over case that casts a shadow on U.S. standing. At the Iran and the Palestinians, which could grow same time, many commentators believe that the into highly problematic disagreements. United States cannot disengage from the region because of its potential to undermine global The United States' Standing in the security, to spark a nuclear war, and to cause a global energy/economic crisis. The terror attack at World and the Region the finish line of the Boston Marathon (April 15, Developments that support the claim of diminishing 2013) strengthened claims that even if the United American interest in the Middle East relate to the States abandons the Middle East, the Middle East continuing economic crisis in the United States, will not release the United States. sharp cuts in the Pentagon's budget, Washington's

46 the jewish people policy institute perhaps longer, from the political decision to Open issue: create a weapon to the point at which the first • In light of the American intention bomb is operational.3 Nothing in the differences to reduce its involvement in the between these assessments detracts from the Middle East and assuming that this, single conclusion: Iran is getting very close to from Israel's perspective, is a negative acquiring a nuclear bomb, and that it is advancing trend: Should Israel persuade the toward that goal along all necessary development United States to remain involved in tracks: production of fissile material, development the region, and how could it do so? of the weapon system itself and its delivery missile. This ensures that the period between an eventual Iran's Progress toward Achieving political decision and the point at which an a Nuclear Weapon Iran continues operational system is in to increase its Even though sanctions are severely damaging place will be as short as capacity to its economy, Iran continues to steadily move possible. In the meantime, produce the ahead with development of a nuclear weapon. A rhetoric between Israel fissile material February 21, 2013 International Atomic Energy and Iran is intensifying. required to Agency report found that Iran had begun to install Netanyahu repeatedly produce an some 180 advanced centrifuges at its uranium promises that Israel will atomic bomb enrichment facility at Natanz, significantly not accept a nuclear increasing its capacity to accelerate production of Iran, and Israeli Chief of the fissile material required for an atomic bomb. Staff Ganz, when asked The former head of military intelligence, Amos in an interview (April 16, Yadlin, estimated that "By the summer [2013], the 2013) whether the IDF possesses the capability to Iranians will definitely cross the red line that Prime attack Iran's nuclear facilities on its own, replied: Minister Binyamin Netanyahu laid down in his UN "Unequivocally, yes."4 The Iranian side continues speech."1 to threaten and Khamenei vows (March 23, 2013) Netanyahu himself said that, "Iran has not yet that if Israel attacks his country's nuclear facilities, crossed the red line that I laid down at the UN "The Islamic Republic will wipe out Tel Aviv and 5 but is moving toward it systematically."2 Western Haifa." Nevertheless, it is interesting that some intelligence sources are divided in their assessment of the candidates in Iran's presidential election of how long it will take Iran to produce a nuclear campaign are critical of Ahmadinejad's foreign weapon once it makes the political decision to policy and avoid using wild rhetoric vis-à-vis Israel. do so. President Obama made clear that U.S. Nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 Group intelligence estimates that it will take a year, (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany,

the jewish people policy institute 47 and France) have not, so far, led to a breakthrough. and the U.S. has significant capabilities. Our goal is Even if the stalled talks restart, it is entirely unclear that Iran will not have weapons that threaten Israel whether they will yield results (and if there are or lead to an arms race in the region.” But skeptics results, that they will satisfy Israel). Iran's policy maintain that we cannot attach operational of advancing to the nuclear capability threshold significance to the president's rhetoric since he has will allow for the rapid production of a nuclear yet to enact a militarily response to the crossing of weapon. Combined with empty diplomatic the red line he drew for Assad – the use of chemical initiatives, this will leave Jerusalem, in the coming weapons. It is reasonable to expect that the year, with the dilemma of whether to launch a practical expression Obama gives to this warning military attack against Iran (a decision that is likely will affect the credibility Iran's rulers attach to his to contradict the U.S. declared commitment to prevent a nuclear Iran, position), or to risk waiting and not to suffice with containing it. Regional for an American military anchors that strike. The Israeli decision long provided Open Issue: will mainly depend on relative • Should Israel attack Iran by itself if it developments in Iran's strategic concludes Iran has crossed the red line? nuclear program, along stability have with an assessment of the weakened Obama administration's The 'Arab Spring' and considerably readiness to use force to the Middle East Storm halt the project (and of Recent months have shown that the ‘Arab Spring’ course, on whether Israel does not guarantee a rapid and calm transition to has the military capability democratic regimes that protect human rights and to achieve the goal itself). are guided by liberal principles. The optimism that The nuclear test North Korea carried out, and prevailed among many at the start of the revolt has the provocative steps it took afterward, test given way to alarm. There is growing doubt that the American determination in the struggle against revolts, which succeeded in toppling dictators will nuclear proliferation. Iran is testing the extent of be able to liberalize societies replete with poverty, Washington's decisiveness, and indeed Secretary illiteracy, tribalism, social divisions, radical Islam, of State John Kerry stated the need "to show repression of women, government corruption, resolve toward North Korea, otherwise Iran will be discrimination against minorities, unemployment, emboldened by it."6 inadequate education systems, underdeveloped Obama stated, in an interview reported by the economies, and a weak middle class. Jerusalem Post on March 14, 2013: "When I say all From Israel's perspective, anchors that long options are on the table, all options are on the table provided relative strategic stability have weakened

48 the jewish people policy institute considerably. Israel faces an unstable Middle East becoming a haven for Islamic terror groups that with a growing dominance of political Islam, will work to undermine the quiet on the Golan which is fundamentally hostile to Israel and the border. West. Extremist Salafi and Jihadist elements are In recent months, for the first time since the Yom flourishing, Sunni-Shiite tensions are increasing, Kippur War, there have been a number of shooting and state institutions are weakening. It is becoming incidents in the Golan Heights (the first took place increasingly difficult to deal with weakened on November 12, 2012). Israel responded by firing at governments that are not a real 'address' for what Syrian targets, making it clear that it will not refrain is happening in their sovereign territory, and in from responding to such developments. Tensions which, in any case, the region's rulers must pay between Israel and Syria intensified following greater attention than they have in the past to ‘the Syria’s announcement Arab street,’ which is very hostile to Israel. that Israel had staged an The U.S. has The shockwaves in the Arab world illustrate how air attack on a military been hesitant difficult it is to craft a single elegant, coherent research institute near to supply arms doctrine from which clear answers to any arising Damascus (January 30, to the Syrian dilemma can be derived. Some argue that in 2013). Foreign sources rebels. The a situation so dynamic, unpredictable, and reported that the attack concern is that laden with internal contradictions, it would be destroyed advanced such weapons a mistake to apply a single rule to all possible surface-to-air missiles could fall into scenarios; each challenge should be dealt with en route to Hezbollah in the hands independently. Lebanon. A second Israeli of Muslim attack took place in two extremists The Danger of Syria's waves on May 2 and May 5, 2013, and targeted Disintegration Iranian missiles and weapons systems also en route The Syrian civil war, which intensified over the to Hezbollah. past year, has claimed at least 93,000 lives, and President Obama made clear (May 4, 2013): “I made refugees of more than a million Syrian continue to believe that the Israelis justifiably civilians. Russia and China are blocking binding have to guard against the transfer of advanced Security Council resolutions that would mean weaponry to terrorist organizations like Hezbollah."7 Assad's ouster. Alongside the strategic advantages Uncertainty over what would happen in Syria in inherent in the erosion of the Syrian army's power the wake of Assad's departure and existing divisions and the damaged Iran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis, between opposition forces are currently deterring Israel is concerned about the break-up of the the United States from supplying arms to the rebels. central government in Syria and about the country The concern is that such weapons would fall into

the jewish people policy institute 49 the hands of extremist Islamic elements and might But as of this writing, Obama is proceeding with ultimately be used against American and Israeli caution and has said that additional checks targets. Despite these concerns, the United States are necessary for final confirmation of the has recently increased financial and humanitarian intelligence. He is also reluctant to disclose the aid to some rebel organizations it believes will not nature of the American response to Assad's red later act against American interests. In Israel, concern line crossing and does not specify how, from is growing over the ‘leakage’ of chemical and other Washington's prespective, "the game will change." strategic weapons from Syria to Hezbollah and to A poll published in late April showed that 62% of Jihadist terror groups that find in Syria a convenient Americans are opposed to military entanglement base for their activity. in Syria, while only 24% support it.8 Various The head of the Research commentators believe that, in light of Obama's reluctance to send American troops into another Various Division of Military Middle East war, his reaction is likely to be limited intelligence Intelligence, Brig. Gen. to approving the transfer of weaponry to certain sources that Itai Baron, confirmed in rebel groups, and possibly to declaring, to some rushed to a public speech that the extent, a no-fly zone. predict Assad's Syrian regime has used imminent chemical weapons: "To the Various intelligence sources, who early in the downfall are best of my professional revolt, rushed to predict Assad's imminent now wary of understanding, the regime downfall are now wary of such sweeping such sweeping used lethal chemical statements. In early May 2013, Assad's army even statements combat materials on had some successes and welcomed the active a series of occasions, military support of Iran and Hezbollah, along with including the incident on – from Russia – a political-diplomatic umbrella March 19” (in which the and supply of advanced weapons meant to deter Syrian regime blamed the use of chemical weapons outside military intervention. China, too, is not on the rebels). This announcement presented the enthusiastic about the use of military force against United States with a difficult dilemma as President the Assad regime. Moreover, we cannot ignore Obama had publicly warned Assad that the use of the support Assad receives inside Syria itself: the chemical weapons would be a game changer and Alawite minority – some 12% of Syria's population cross a red line. After a day of hesitant American of 22 million, which has ruled the country since reactions about the information itself, the United 1970 – fears for its very survival should power States confirmed (April 25, 2013) that the Syrian pass to the Sunni majority (some 70% of Syrians). army had indeed used Sarin, a deadly nerve gas. Syria's Christian minority (around 10%), on the President Obama is now under pressure to keep whole, favors Assad's regime or is sitting on the his word and take military action against Assad. fence (the pro-Assad camp also includes secular

50 the jewish people policy institute Sunni businessmen who are afraid Assad's ouster would collapse the Syrian economy). Open Issues: The joint plan of John Kerry and his Russian • How to continue to block the transfer counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, (published on May 7, of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah 2013) to convene an international conference to without being drawn into the Syrian resolve the crisis in Syria has so far given rise to morass and without sparking an only limited hope, but the need to wait for the escalation on the Golan border or a conference to take place is likely to provide Obama general war in the north. with an additional argument against immediate • How to prevent the use of chemical military action against Assad. weapons against Israeli targets and Prime Minister Netanyahu stated (April 29, 2013) such weapons falling into the hands that "Syria is splitting apart, new forces have of terrorist organizations. positioned themselves there and they present two • How to prepare for the possible possible dangers – of attack from the line of the breakup of Syria and its becoming a Golan Heights, and of lethal arms falling into the failed state. hands of Hezbollah and terrorist organizations."9 • Can communication channels with Israel is therefore maneuvering along a fine line: the Syrian opposition be opened and it is determined to respond to any firing on its how? territory, to forcibly halt the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah, and of course, to act in the event that it detects preparations for a chemical Hezbollah and the Danger of attack against an Israeli target – any of which, Undermining Lebanon's Stability clearly, could lead to a violent deterioration. Such The civil war in Syria is undermining Lebanon’s a deterioration would likely occur in the wake of stability. Some 400,000 Syrian refugees have fled a Syrian retaliation. Its efforts to acquire Russian to Lebanon, creating a significant humanitarian S-300 surface-to-air missiles do not help. For this problem. Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned on reason, Netanyahu went to Moscow for an urgent March 23, 2013 after severe disagreements with meeting with President Putin to try and block the members of his government over their opposition deal (May 14, 2013), without success. At the same to the creation of an oversight body for upcoming time, the New York Times published the proactive parliamentary elections, and their refusal to warning of a ‘top Israeli official’: "If Syrian President extend the term of Ashraf Rifi as director general Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike of Lebanon's national internal security service. Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official President Suleiman assigned (April 7, 2013) the said, “he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will task of forming a new government to a veteran retaliate.”10

the jewish people policy institute 51 member of parliament, Tammam Salam, who will Hezbollah. The final collapse of Assad's regime need to build consensus on the controversial new would isolate Hezbollah strategically. Not only election law, the ‘Orthodox Proposal,’ limiting would it lose its Syrian ally, but its link with Iran voters to casting ballots only for candidates from would also be severely damaged. Hezbollah’s their specific sect. Parliamentary elections were efforts to gain international legitimacy have scheduled to take place in July 2013, but have been been damaged by the publication of evidence of put off until November 2014. its involvement in international terrorism, this Salam will have to simultaneously deal with following Bulgaria's announcement (February increasing economic and security threats arising 5, 2013) that its investigation found Hezbollah from the fighting in Syria, and with resurgent responsible for the July 2012 attack in Burgas, which ethnic divisions resulting left five Israelis and one Bulgarian dead. As a result of this announcement, the EU was forced – under Hezbollah’s from Hezbollah's active U.S. and Israeli pressure – to reconsider whether to allegiance support of Assad. blacklist Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. to Assad Hezbollah’s allegiance undermines its to Assad undermines its In light of its attempt to help save the Assad regime, standing in the standing in the Arab world Hezbollah has been discouraged from opening a Arab world in in general, and particularly front against Israel, and so far has not retaliated for general, and in Lebanon. Hezbollah Israeli attacks on arms convoys destined for it from particularly in fighters are deployed Syria and on stockpiles of advanced Iranian missiles Lebanon side-by-side with Assad's stored near Damascus. Nevertheless, we cannot forces in Syria. Dozens assume that Hezbollah and its Iranian patron of them have been killed will restrain themselves in the future. Hezbollah's and returned to Lebanon continued efforts to secure Iranian arms and to for burial. This situation get its hands on stockpiles of strategic weapons in exposes as a lie the organization's claim that Syria, in combination with Israel's determination its military capacity is only intended to defend to foil these efforts, could well lead to an escalation Lebanon against Israel. Its taking up position beside that could result in revenge attacks against Israeli the despised Assad is seen as joining the Shiite and Jewish targets abroad and a slide into war. front against the Sunnis, and pulls the rug out from under the image that Nasrallah has cultivated over Open Issue: the years, of an organization that works for the • How to continue to foil Hezbollah's good of all the people of Lebanon. efforts to arm itself with high-quality Tensions between Assad's supporters and weaponry without sliding into war. opponents have already boiled over in Tripoli, and there has been unprecedented Sunni criticism of

52 the jewish people policy institute Egypt that Egypt's economic and military dependence on American aid enhances Egyptian interest in security Since Morsi's inauguration as president (June coordination with Israel to prevent a deterioration, 30, 2012), the Muslim Brotherhood has worked which would endanger the peace treaty with Israel aggressively to bring its political power to bear and Cairo's relations with Washington. throughout the Egyptian government. Morsi fired For the first time in its history, the Muslim the heads of the army and the intelligence services Brotherhood isn’t relegated to the opposition, (August 12, 2012), and granted himself powers but actually faces the test of governing. It is a that free him from judicial oversight (November high-stakes test given Egypt’s desperate economic 22, 2012) until a new constitution (reflecting the situation. Its foreign currency reserves, which stood Islamist world view) takes effect. These steps by at $40 billion at the end of Morsi, along with Egypt's desperate economic Mubarak's rule, dropped situation, led to huge, violent demonstrations to $13.5 billion by February and to a more substantial coalescence of the Morsi stuck 2013 – only enough to opposition. Morsi stuck to the already-cold to the cover basic commodities character of the peace treaty with Israel, and already-cold desperately needed by is interested in calm along the Egypt-Israel- character the Egyptian economy Gaza border. Thus, he provided effective help of the for three months (Egypt in bringing about a ceasefire between Israel and peace treaty must import 40% of its Hamas following Operation Pillar of Defense. He with Israel food and 70% of its energy continues to press Hamas to maintain it, and to requirements). Shortages restrain terrorist elements in Sinai. of raw materials required Tensions developed between Cairo and Hamas for Egyptian industry following the Kerem Shalom attack in which have already become Islamic extremists killed 16 Egyptian police apparent. The value of the Egyptian currency (August 5, 2012), (Egypt suspected that Hamas is falling; tourism, which makes up 12% of the knew about the planning of the attack), and Egyptian economy and is an important source of Cairo declared a broad operation to destroy the foreign currency, is paralyzed by security fears and terrorist infrastructure in Sinai. Despite Egyptian the clerical atmosphere Muslim Brotherhood rule efforts, extremist terrorist elements that launched inspires. Foreign investors are reluctant to risk their a number of attacks against Israel (including Eilat) money, and local investors prefer to transfer their over the past year continue to find refuge in Sinai. capital out of Egypt. The International Monetary The flow of smuggled weaponry through the Fund has demanded reforms in exchange for loans peninsula to Gaza continues, albeit at a lower level that would give the economy some breathing room due to the growing Egyptian presence. It is clear and would allow Egypt to obtain credit elsewhere

the jewish people policy institute 53 (the cost of every dollar the Egyptian government by the continuing heavy-handed behavior of the borrows is relatively expensive because of low security services, and claim that almost nothing confidence in Egypt's ability to pay its debts). has changed since Mubarak's overthrow. Many President Morsi is concerned that cutting subsidies accuse Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood of (which comprise 25% of the Egyptian government's attempting to impose an autocracy on Egypt budget), as the IMF demands, would bring the while ignoring the demands of the secular enraged masses back into the streets. Emergency organizations that formed the backbone of the aid from Qatar ($8 billion) gave Morsi some anti-Mubarak uprising. Dozens were killed during breathing room and allowed him to put off, though demonstrations commemorating the second not escape, making difficult decisions. The official anniversary of the revolution (January 25, 2013) and unemployment rate for Morsi was forced to declare a state of emergency in 2012 was 12.7% (42.7% the cities of Suez, Port Said, and Ismailia. The Egyptian among the 20-24 age army, its major The role the Egyptian army is playing in the cohort), which translates Western-oriented current political environment, and the role it to 3.4 million unemployed institution, is likely to play in the event of a severe political Egyptians. The impact is likely the crisis, creates a complicated dilemma for both of these statistics is reason Israel Israel and the United States. It seems that both magnified by the lack of has refrained countries prefer to continue to cultivate their supportive social services from diplomatic ties to this Western-oriented institution which or of significant savings efforts to block has the ability to safeguard the peace treaty with among the unemployed. the U.S. from Israel and perhaps, in the event of a crisis, to seize The Muslim Brotherhood equipping it power. This preference lies behind the shipments government has yet to of advanced weaponry with which the United demonstrate its ability States is equipping the Egyptian army and behind to deal with this challenge, especially since the Israel's refraining from any diplomatic effort to political crisis makes it difficult to enlist the block them. support of the parliamentary opposition for the necessary economic reforms. From Israel's perspective, it is significant that the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty survived the The frustration of many Egyptians has increased first year of Muslim Brotherhood rule. Egypt in the past two years. The economy continues to hosted the Islamic Summit (February 2013) at worsen and there is disquiet in the political arena which support for the Arab Peace Initiative and as a result of conflict between the Islamic bloc the ‘Road Map’ were renewed, and the Egyptian and the opposition (a rivalry has also erupted foreign minister participated in the Arab League between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist delegation that declared, in Washington, its camp). Demonstrators are especially outraged support for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement

54 the jewish people policy institute that includes ("small scale") land swaps. IDF The Threat to Jordan's Stability Chief of Staff Benny Gantz even stated that, "The security coordination between Israel and Egypt While the Arab Spring sparked protests in Jordan, has improved in certain respects following the they were not on the scale of those in other Arab change in government in Cairo… The results of countries. They focused on corruption, calls Pillar of Defense – both in terms of the quiet in for political reform, and expressions of anger the south and of the cooperation with Egypt – over the worsening economic situation and the have surprised me favorably."11 rising unemployment rate (30%). The cut-off of supplies of relatively cheap Egyptian gas created Against this background, we also need to consider a significant deficit in Jordan's budget (Jordan that in certain circumstances, such as a crisis in imports 97% of its fuel relations between Israel and the Palestinians (the needs, at a cost of about Muslim Brotherhood is ideologically closer to a quarter of its GDP). King Hamas than Fatah), an escalation between Israel Abdullah II was forced to and Gaza, or on the Israel-Sinai border, Egypt cut subsidies to meet IMF The opposition could curtail relations with Israel, impede Israel's conditions for approving in Jordan freedom to operate in foiling terrorism from Sinai Jordan's request for credit, has – in the and Gaza and perhaps even seek to reopen and and this caused fuel price past – avoided amend the military addendum to its peace treaty increases that enraged criticizing the with Israel. many. The opposition king himself in Jordan has in the past Open Issues: avoided criticizing the • How to continue safeguarding the king himself: the fact that peace treaty with Egypt. he is a scion of the Prophet • How to strengthen security Muhammad's family is a significant source of his cooperation in curbing terror legitimacy. But since the outbreak of the Arab emanating from Sinai. Spring, this taboo has eroded and the king and his family are being publicly attacked (particularly • How to continue to benefit from his wife, who is portrayed as an out of touch Egypt's assistance in maintaining the spendthrift). cease-fire with Hamas and curbing terror emanating from Sinai. The January 2013 parliamentary elections did not reflect significant political reform, and at this • How to constructively engage Egypt stage the king has preserved his dominant power. in the peace process. The opposition, which is demanding reforms that would erode his power and lead Jordan

the jewish people policy institute 55 to becoming a parliamentary monarchy, is not of American military advisers who are in Jordan limited to the Muslim Brotherhood. There is also to help prepare for the possibility that Assad falls, unrest and dissatisfaction among King Abdullah’s and the need to safeguard the chemical weapon traditional powerbase – the Bedouin tribes (who stockpiles in Syria. A stable Jordan provides Israel regard the monarchy as a hedge against the with considerable strategic depth. The kingdom's growth of Palestinian power). The civil war in Syria security forces demonstrate professionalism has aggravated Jordan's domestic situation and and are effective in curtailing efforts by terrorist wreaked additional damage on its economy (some groups to use Jordanian territory as a base for 60% of Jordan's foreign trade passes through Syria). attacks against Israeli targets. Israel is attempting Intense additional pressure has been caused by the to support its neighbor to the east, both in terms 400,000 Syrian refugees of security and economically. Discussions over the who have sought a haven supply of Israeli gas to Jordan are well advanced. King Abdullah II: in their neighbor to the I would Atlantic Monthly journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg, south. Moreover, quite not allow who conducted an extensive interview with King a few Jihadist elements any future Abdullah (March 19, 2012), described vigorous have moved from Jordan government intelligence cooperation between Jerusalem to Syria to fight against in Jordan to and Amman that includes, according to various Assad, a development repudiate the sources, Israeli UAV flights along the border that has led to concern peace treaty between Jordan and Syria. The Jordanian king over the destabilizing with Israel confirmed that Netanyahu is contributing to effect they will have Jordan’s stability, that his relationship with him is when they return to "very strong," and that "our discussions have really Jordan. In recent months, improved." In the interview, Abdullah stressed that Jordan has increased abrogating the peace treaty with Israel is a "red its support for Assad's opponents, as well as its line" from his perspective, and that he would not coordination on the issue with the United States allow any future Jordanian government to do so: "I and the Sunni Arab countries, so much so that don't want a government to come in and say, 'We Assad himself explicitly threatened Jordan (April repudiate the peace treaty with Israel.'"13 17, 2013): "We would wish that our Jordanian neighbors realize that … the fire will not stop at Open Issue: our borders; all the world knows Jordan is just as exposed [to the crisis] as Syria."12 • How to continue supporting the survivability of the Hashemite The danger that Jordan might collapse has raised government and to preserve Jordan's serious concerns in the West and, of course, in Israel. security and economic stability. The kingdom's importance is illustrated by reports

56 the jewish people policy institute Is the Crisis with Turkey Over? as with Zionism, anti-Semitism, and fascism, there is no escape from calling Islamophobia a crime The intense crisis between Israel and Turkey, which against humanity."14 Under U.S. pressure, which broke out following the Turkish flotilla to Gaza expressed public disapproval of his statement, in 2010, took a significant turn when Netanyahu Erdogan corrected himself in an interview with apologized to the Turkish prime minister in a the Danish newspaper, Politiken, and said that "his telephone call made at President Obama's side words were misunderstood." shortly before his departure from Israel (March In a dramatic move, Erdogan reached a cease- 22, 2013). Netanyahu expressed, in principle, a fire agreement with the imprisoned leader of the willingness to compensate the families of those Kurdish underground, Abdulla Ocalan (March killed on the Mavi Marmara (negotiations over 21, 2013). According to the nature of the compensation began in April). the agreement, Kurdish In response to another Turkish demand – "the The Syrian civil fighters from the PKK removal of the siege on Gaza" – he clarified that war deepened movement are to restrictions on the movement of people and goods Jerusalem's withdraw from Turkish into Gaza are already being eased. The United States and Ankara's territory, and the Kurdish pressed for reconciliation between its two allies, interest in population in Turkey which in its view represent an anchor of stability in achieving a (18 million) will receive a stormy and unpredictable region. The Syrian civil thaw in the political and cultural war deepened Jerusalem's and Ankara's interest in crisis between rights. If the agreement is achieving a thaw in the crisis between them and them and in in fact carried out, it will in creating a framework for cooperation in light of creating a put an end to a bloody the implications of a continued deterioration in framework for struggle that broke out Syria, their mutual neighbor. (The tension between cooperation in 1984 and has claimed Ankara and Damascus reached a highpoint after some 40,000 lives. Along the Turks claimed that Syria was responsible for a with this move, Turkey is strengthening its ties terrorist attack in the border town of Reyhanli that with the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, which killed some 50 Turks on May 12, 2013). is enjoying stability and economic development Most commentators do not anticipate a return (11% annual growth). A new oil pipeline to Turkey to the same depth of strategic cooperation that will allow for an increase in oil exports to a million characterized the relationship between the two barrels a day and is expected to further strengthen countries in the past. A month before Netanyahu's the common interests of Ankara and Irbil. These apology, Prime Minister Erdogan, who discovered developments reflect a sea change in the fate of just how much his blatant hostility toward Israel the Kurdish people, which numbers 38 million but won him approval in the Arab world, declared, "Just which is spread out over Iraq (5 million), Turkey

the jewish people policy institute 57 (18 million), Iran (6 million), and Syria (2.5 million). via the road between the Haifa port and the The Kurdish people – who have been the victims of Jordanian border, from where they went on to Gulf ongoing deprivation, were attacked with chemical markets. This solution was necessary because the weapons by Saddam Hussein and spilled their Syrian civil war has made the traditional passage blood in a guerilla war against the Turkish army of Turkish exports to the Gulf (through Syrian – now enjoy growing autonomy (the pressure on territory) dangerous and unreliable. The potential Assad's forces allows the 2.5 million Kurds living in transport of Turkish goods is estimated at around northern Syria to run their own affairs as a quasi- 500 trucks a week. Thus, trade between Israel and independent entity). An open question remains: Turkey, and its potential to expand, presents a Will the Kurds be satisfied with this or will they point of light and significant leverage in efforts to strive for unification in a rebuild the relations between the two countries. completely independent Nevertheless, one cannot ignore Turkey's state? The Kurds are consistent support for Islamic elements, including Will the Hamas (Erdogan is due to visit Gaza shortly), Kurds strive moderate from a religious point of view, and pro- and that it is highly critical of Israel vis-à-vis the for unification Palestinians (Turkey recently upgraded the status in a completely Western in their outlook. Israel's policy toward of its Jerusalem consul general to 'ambassador to independent the State of Palestine'). And even though Ankara state? them will likely be a source of renewed tension does not want to see a nuclear Iran, it is opposed with Turkey, as are its to an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities. So despite Mediterranean gas fields. a confluence of interests over Syria, there are quite Ankara has expressed a few differences in orientation and policy that displeasure over the will likely cast a shadow on reconciliation and agreements Cyprus has future Ankara-Jerusalem relations. signed with Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon, which, the Turks claim, impinge on the rights of Turkish Open Issue: northern Cyprus. This background is at the heart • How to continue to foster relations of the Israeli dilemma over whether to sell gas to with Turkey following Netanyahu's Europe via Turkey's existing pipelines. apology. Throughout the intense crisis between the states, trade between them actually increased (even though the number of Israeli tourists dropped from around 500,000 a year to around 50,000). Even before Netanyahu's apology, Israel allowed Turkish goods to be trucked from Turkey to Jordan

58 the jewish people policy institute The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Skepticism over the possibility of a successful renewal of peace negotiations has, however, lifted Against the backdrop of the paralyzed peace slightly in light of a number of developments: process, frustration over Hamas's increasing Obama's re-election, John Kerry's appointment as strength, and the Palestinian Authority’s severe secretary of state (and the priority he has placed economic recession, Abu Mazen petitioned the UN on advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement), General Assembly to grant Palestine 'non-member election results in Israel (which signaled the observer state' status (November 29, 2012). The possible formation of a government more centrist Palestinians won decisively with 138 in favor, 9 than its predecessor), and Obama's visit to opposed, and 41 abstentions. Abu Mazen took this Israel and Ramallah. But it remains unclear how step despite Israeli warnings and personal pleas willing Obama will be to from President Obama. Jerusalem is concerned personally invest in the The paralyzed that their new status will enable the Palestinians practical aspects of peace process to sue Israel and its citizens in the International moving the diplomatic and the Criminal Court. Israel retaliated by announcing process forward. plans for additional West Bank construction, PA's severe At a press conference held including development plans for Area E1 (a step, economic in Ramallah (March 21, according to the Palestinians, that would deny recession 2013), Obama unveiled them territorial contiguity between north and intensified his preferred way of south in the West Bank), and by stopping the West Bank preceding, Dismissing transfer of indirect taxes it collects on behalf of protests incremental, confidence the Palestinians. The United States also stopped its building steps that ‘serve economic aid (and the Arab states have not rushed to delay and put off some to send the funds they had publicly committed). of the more fundamental issues,’ he said, "If you Cutting off these funds accelerated the Palestinian have a situation where it looks like the incremental Authority’s economic decline. This, along with the steps replace the broader vision, as opposed to absence of any diplomatic breakthrough on the incremental steps in pursuit of the broader vision, horizon, the growing weakness of the Palestinian then I think that what you end up with is four more Authority, and, of course, the events of the Arab years, 10 more years, 20 more years of conflict Spring, caused an intensification of protests and and tension..." Obama favors working toward a violent incidents in the West Bank, including permanent settlement over conflict management, demonstrations that erupted over hunger striking interim steps, or unilateral moves. He clarified Palestinian prisoners. According to Shin Bet data,15 how permanent settlement negotiations should the month of February 2013 saw a 70% increase in be handled: "The core issue right now is how do terror attacks against Israelis in the West Bank and we get sovereignty for the Palestinian people, and Gaza Strip.

the jewish people policy institute 59 how do we assure security for the Israeli people? for achieving a two-state solution is liable to close And that's the essence of this negotiation. And over the next two years, and direct U.S. involvement that's not to say settlements are not important. It is therefore required. Kerry is also exploring ways is to say that if we solve those two problems, the to involve additional Arab states in the process, settlement problem will be solved." based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API). We Obama outlines the familiar approach of focusing should mention here that despite growing calls in first on the question of borders ("sovereignty," in the Arab world to take the Arab peace initiative his words) and on the question of security. This off the table, the most recent Islamic Nations approach causes discomfort on the Israeli side, Summit in Cairo (February 6-7, 2013) reaffirmed among other reasons because it means that Israel its support for this initiative and for the Road Map. will be asked to give up its The Arab League itself also affirmed its support for the API at its last meeting (March 26, 2012) and Secretary of main card at the opening even resolved to send a delegation to Washington State Kerry: stage and be left without to present ideas for renewing the peace process. The window of any significant bargaining Indeed, the delegation appeared together with opportunity power when other issues, Secretary of State Kerry at a press conference for achieving particularly the fate of the (April 29, 2013) in which the Qatari prime minister, a two-state refugees and Jerusalem, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, declared – on solution is liable come up for discussion. behalf of the delegation – that peace with Israel is to close over At the end of his visit, a "strategic choice" for the Arab countries, and that the next two Obama made it clear the League supports Abu Mazen's peace policy and years that Secretary of State is committed to providing economic aid to the Kerry would be working Palestinian Authority. The Qatari prime minister on his behalf with the added land swaps – not mentioned in the 2002 two sides to explore Arab initiative – to the basic principles on which a restarting negotiations. Kerry did in fact meet with settlement could be based. Netanyahu and Abu Mazen and even announced (April 9, 2013) that he had agreed on moving Secretary of State Kerry told reporters, "The Arab forward with a series of economic projects in the League delegation affirmed that agreement should West Bank aimed at aiding the Palestinian economy. be based on the two-state solution on the basis of th However, he also made it clear that they are not a the 4 of June, 1967 line, with the possibility of a substitute for diplomatic talks but rather help set comparable and mutually agreed minor swap of an atmosphere conducive to negotiations. On his land.” return to the United States, Kerry appeared before The Prime Minister's Office was restrained in its the House Foreign Affairs Committee (April 17, response, but Tzipi Livni, the minister responsible 2013) and warned that the window of opportunity for peace negotiations, was more positive.

60 the jewish people policy institute Nevertheless, Netanyahu stated shortly after the The diplomatic stalemate provides context to a Arab League announcement (May 1, 2013) that we letter to the European Union's High Representative have to reach a settlement with the Palestinians for Foreign Affairs, Catherine Ashton, (April 2013) "that will prevent Israel from becoming a bi- signed by 19 senior Europeans who had formerly national state, but will provide stability and held top foreign policy positions. Their letter security." claimed that the Oslo process no longer has Secretary of State Kerry asked the sides for a two- anything to offer, and that Europe's waiting for a month "time out" to allow him to formulate a sterile U.S.-led process to yield results essentially memorandum of principles that would serve as supports the continued entrenchment of the the basis for a renewal of talks. The Palestinians Israeli occupation. are adamant that Israel accept the principle of The resignation of the '67 borders as the basis for renewing the Palestinian Prime Minister The resignation negotiations and that it commit to present a map Salaam Fayyad (April 13, of Palestinian of the borders representing its position, but the 2013) after long months of PM Fayyad Israelis insist that the negotiations should begin tensions with Abu Mazen increased "without preconditions." The Palestinian Authority and the Fatah elite will growing fears is preparing for the possibility that Kerry's efforts likely complicate efforts to of economic will be declared another failure; according to their extricate the Palestinian collapse and calculations, the time out that they committed to Authority from its current rampant expires on June 7, 2013. economic crisis. The West corruption Both sides are contemplating how to win the and Israel considered propaganda battle in which each will attempt to Fayyad a reliable and blame the other for obstructing the renewal of professional interlocutor the peace talks. In this context, the Palestinians who dedicated himself to are threatening to change the goal and method building the Palestinian economy and government of the Oslo process: direct negotiations will be institutions. Without him, there are growing fears replaced by an international diktat imposed on of economic collapse and rampant corruption. At Israel, and the two-state vision will be replaced the same time, Fayyad's resignation gives a degree with a demand for equal rights for all within a of momentum to reconciliation efforts between single state. Furthermore, the Palestinians are Fatah and Hamas as it allows for implementation considering a demonstrative step in which they of a key element of the reconciliation plan: the would "give back the keys" to Netanyahu and hand establishment of a technocratic government over responsibility for the fate of the Palestinian headed by Abu Mazen or another agreed-upon people to him as the "occupying power." figure until general elections can be held. Despite a longing for reconciliation among the Palestinian

the jewish people policy institute 61 public, each side seeks to blame the other for was reached with U.S. and Egyptian assistance the continuing rift. Egypt (with assistance from (November 21, 2013). Israel refrained from a Qatar) is leading the reconciliation effort but ground invasion of Gaza and agreed to halt there are significant obstacles in the way and the targeted assassinations there. For its part, Hamas vision of a single address for the Palestinian side undertook to halt attacks on Israel – including remains elusive. Nevertheless, we cannot take the rocket fire and border attacks – by all Gazan challenge a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation would organizations. Measures to ease restrictions on present to Israel (and the United States) lightly. the movement of people and goods through the Khaled Meshaal's reappointment to the Hamas border crossings into Gaza were also agreed upon. leadership (April 1, 2013) sends a signal to the The confrontation allowed for the successful international community demonstration of the Iron Dome system, which that the organization intercepted 85% of the rockets launched at has opted for a relatively The view populated targets in Israel. Hamas, despite moderate line and that absorbing painful blows in the operation, from Hamas: it is worth exploring a Operation Pillar portrayed the confrontation as their victory. way to include it in the According to its leaders, Hamas fighters deterred of Defense diplomatic process with ended with an IDF ground invasion and forced Tel Aviv Israel. Meshaal enjoys residents into bomb shelters. As noted, this claim a positive support from Egypt, outcome is consistent with the Hamas view that its regional Qatar, and Turkey and the and intra-Palestinian standing is on the rise. This is coming period will show chiefly due to the Muslim Brotherhood's political whether he can succeed in victory in Egypt. In addition, Hamas succeeded imposing his authority on in breaking out of the economic-diplomatic the Hamas leadership in isolation imposed upon it under a diplomatic- Gaza, which leans toward a more radical line. economic umbrella held by leading Sunni states Hamas's high degree of self-confidence is the – Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. All the same, Hamas result of its analysis of the outcome of the violent is also taking care to maintain the cease-fire in clash with Israel of November 2012 (Operation place since the end of Pillar of Defense. Evidence Pillar of Defense ). Following shooting incidents of Hamas's improved standing can be found in and rocket fire on Israel, Israel responded by the visit by the Emir of Qatar, during which he killing the commander of Hamas's military wing, announced that he would fund – at a cost of $400 Ahmed Jabari (November 14, 2012) and by million – the reconstruction of Gaza (October 23, destroying most of its Fajr 5 long-range missiles. 2012), as well as in the announcement of Turkish Hamas retaliated by firing missiles on Israel Prime Minister Erdogan's plans to visit Gaza. cities, including Tel Aviv. A cease-fire agreement

62 the jewish people policy institute According to the law, the United States will supply Open Issues: Israel with, among other items, aerial refueling • What is the best and most correct planes, anti-missile defense systems and "special way to revive the peace process and armaments." make it effective? At the AIPAC Policy Conference (March 4, 2012), • What are Israel’s preferred parameters Obama re-stated his policy vis-à-vis Iran : "I do not in a permanent settlement with the have a policy of containment; I have a policy to Palestinians? prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon." He also reiterated his commitment to preserving • Assuming that it is not possible Israel's qualitative advantage. Washington, with a to move forward on a final-status small group of countries, agreement, what is the preferred stood with Israel in alternative: Conflict management? opposing the Palestinian Interim agreements? Unilateral steps? Claims of Israeli UN move, and continues interference • What is the most appropriate way to to provide substantial in American deal with Hamas while continuing to assistance in the struggle domestic deter it? against the international politics phenomenon of de- continued to Israel-U.S. Relations legitimization. But at the crop up after same time, it was leaked elections In recent months, this relationship, a critical that the United States does strategic asset to the strength of Israel and the not intend to use military Jewish people, has seen clear expressions of force against Iran, and that American support for Israel, but also of friction Obama was furious over Netanyahu's support for between the countries and their leaders. The his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. It was also highlight, of course, was Obama’s visit to Israel reported that he had claimed, in a closed meeting, (March 20-22, 2013) in which he made a special that Netanyahu doesn't understand Israel's effort to demonstrate his friendship and interests, and that his conduct would lead Israel commitment to Israel. Even before the visit, into severe international isolation. the president spared no effort in proving his Claims of Israeli interference in American commitment to Israel's security. For example, he domestic politics continued to crop up after the signed a new law (July 27, 2012) that commits the elections, particularly during the nomination American administration to providing Israel with process of Chuck Hagel as defense secretary. the military aid necessary to confront military Right-wing Jewish groups in the United States threats in a changing strategic environment. accused Hagel of holding defeatist positions on

the jewish people policy institute 63 Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. Some, pointing to • "Given the demographics west of the Jordan his past statements against the "Jewish lobby," River, the only way for Israel to endure and alleged anti-Semitism (AIPAC, for its part, took thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is care to stay out of the campaign against Hagel's through the realization of an independent and appointment). Once confirmed, Hagel made a viable Palestine." special effort to demonstrate his commitment to • "Given the frustration in the international Israel. In a meeting with then-defense minister, community, Israel must reverse an undertow of Ehud Barak (March 5, 2013), he expressed his isolation. And given the march of technology, commitment to ensuring Israel's qualitative the only way to truly protect the Israeli people advantage and promised that, despite Pentagon is through the absence of war – because no budget cuts, military aid to Israel would not wall is high enough, and no Iron Dome is diminish. strong enough, to stop every enemy from Obama's speech at the inflicting harm." Jerusalem Convention • "I recognize that with the uncertainty in the Obama in Center (March 21, 2013) region – people in the streets, changes in Jerusalem: So allowed him to present his leadership, the rise of non-secular parties in long as there is main positions on Israel politics – it is tempting to turn inward. But this a United States, and clarify the emotions is precisely the time to respond to the wave of atem lo levad and values behind them: revolution with a resolve for peace." (you are • "When I consider • "But the Palestinian people’s right to self- not alone) Israel’s security, I also determination and justice must also be think about a people who recognized… Just as Israelis built a state in have a living memory their homeland, Palestinians have a right to be of the Holocaust, faced a free people in their own land." with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iranian government that has • "Palestinians must recognize that Israel will be called for Israel’s destruction. It’s no wonder a Jewish state, and that Israelis have the right Israelis view this as an existential threat. But to insist upon their security." this is not simply a challenge for Israel – it is • "Israelis must recognize that continued a danger for the entire world, including the settlement activity is counterproductive to United States." the cause of peace, and that an independent • "So long as there is a United States, atem lo Palestine must be viable – that real borders levad" (Hebrew: "you are not alone"). will have to be drawn."

64 the jewish people policy institute • "I’ve suggested principles on territory and is uncertainty over the form an American response security that I believe can be the basis for will take. Significant disagreements are likely to arise talks." between Israel and the United States in the event We cannot ignore the ambivalence that that an agreement is reached with the Iranians characterizes the triangular Israel-Washington- that is unsatisfactory to Israel, or if the criteria (red U.S. Jewish community relationship. On one hand, line) that would justify a military attack is put to a there is acknowledgement of the deepest sort practical test. For example: if Iran were to progress of friendship, which is manifest in the massive to the point of the 'final turn of the screw' and U.S. practical support of Israel. On the other then stop so that it could technically claim it does hand, there is evidence of frustration, anger, and not have a bomb, and this was acceptable to the discomfort over Israel's conduct. This year too, United States but not to various commentators have warned that support Israel. for Israel in the United States is eroding because There could also be Against of Israel's policies, the demographic shifts that bitter disputes over the the various are slowly changing the face of America, and the Palestinian issue. For commentators growing concentration on domestic affairs. Yet, example, if the United that warned this claim is not generally supported by polling States insists on receiving support for data . According to a poll taken in February 2013, Israel's precise opening Israel in the support for Israel is actually on the rise among positions on final status U.S. is eroding, all sectors of the American population, though issues and Israel refuses to polling data the most significant increase is found among lay them out, or if it fails show opposite Republicans, conservatives, and older age cohorts. to veto a future Security trends The lowest rates of support – though even these Council resolution that exceed 50% – are found among the young, liberals, establishes the terms of and Democrats.16 an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. It is unclear The coming months will show the extent to which to what extent the United States will be prepared these two issues – Iran and the peace process – to provide Israel an umbrella of support in the will be the source of fruitful cooperation or of regional and international arenas if it considers problematic friction in U.S.-Israel relations. During Israel the main cause of the diplomatic stalemate. Obama's Israel visit, Netanyahu stated that he has A scenario in which disagreements develop confidence in Obama and that he "is convinced between Jerusalem and Washington over the that President Obama is serious about his intention Iranian or the Palestinian issues could, of course, to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon." leave the American Jewish community between a Netanyahu would no doubt be pleased if this wish rock and a hard place. were to come true in its entirety. In actuality, there

the jewish people policy institute 65 West." There is concern that a deterioration in Open Issues: Israel's international standing would likely cause • How to continue to safeguard the a strengthening of the de-legitimization efforts United States' friendship without against it, and of Europe’s imposition of economic compromising Israel's essential sanctions. Thus, in a strongly-worded report by a interests? commission of enquiry of the UN Human Rights Council on the subject of the settlements (January • How to convince the United States 31, 2013), governments and private corporations to maintain its presence and around the world are urged to consider imposing involvement in the Middle East. diplomatic and economic sanctions on Israel • How to benefit from the assistance because of its continued construction in the of American Jewry without pushing settlements. European support for labeling goods them into an untenable corner. manufactured in the settlements is growing. Half of Europe's foreign ministers (including those of Israel's International Standing Britain, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Denmark, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland) expressed The UN General Assembly their support for such a measure to the EU's high vote to accept Palestine as representative for foreign affairs, Catherine Ashton a non-member observer (April 12, 2013) and asked her to publish detailed European state revealed Israel's implementation guidelines. There is no mistaking support for isolation on this issue. that anti-Israel sentiment on the settlements issue labeling goods The eight countries that is gathering momentum throughout Europe. manufactured supported Israel and voted in the The diplomatic stalemate provides a supportive against the Palestinian settlements is backdrop to the embargo efforts against Israel. move were: Canada, growing Thus, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Stephen the Czech Republic, Hawking, cancelled his participation in Israel's the Marshall Islands, Presidential Conference, explaining his actions in a Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, letter (May 3, 2013) saying that he had been asked Panama, and the United by Palestinian academics to "honor the embargo." States. Haaretz reported These phenomena, which testify to the erosion of (February 7, 2013) that in a closed meeting in the Israel's international standing, join ongoing and Prime Minister's Office, Israel's national security more serious processes of severe de-legitimization adviser, Yaakov Amidror, expressed the view that of Israel's very existence and of Diaspora Jewry's settlement construction "is also causing Israel ties to it. Even though there has been greater to lose the support of its greatest friends in the awareness of the de-legitimization phenomenon in

66 the jewish people policy institute recent years in Israel and among the Jewish people to Israel's energy independence. Progress in gas and these have begun to mobilize to combat it, field development will likely enrich Israel with with Israel succeeding in curbing or responding considerable revenues, and, provide it with the to several de-legitimization campaigns, it seems opportunity to reap strategic dividends from that the de-legitimization challenge on the level gas exports. But it also raises social, economic, of international discourse has not been halted and and strategic issues, remains a major challenge to Israel and to Diaspora including where to sell Jewry. It is important to emphasize that there is the gas (Europe? Turkey? understanding for Israel when it is forced to take Asia?), and the challenge Gas field military action to defend itself as happened, for of defending the drilling development example, in Operation Pillar of Defense. Its forceful platforms and other and exports actions, whether against Hamas or out of a need infrastructure in a region may provide to block the transfer of advanced weaponry to whose countries have Israel with Hezbollah, are generally viewed with relative problematic relations strategic understanding in European capitals. This is not with one another – dividends the case when Israel is perceived as continuing to Israel, Egypt, Lebanon hold the Palestinian people under occupation and (Hezbollah), Syria, Turkey, as not being interested in an agreement with the and Cyprus. Palestinians. Open Issues: Open Issue: • How can a diplomatic and security • Is it possible to improve Israel's apparatus be built to provide international standing in the protection in the areas of the gas absence of progress toward an Israel- drilling rigs and delivery lines? Palestinian agreement, and if so how? • From Israel's overall strategic perspective, who are the ideal Israel as an Energy Power customers for Israeli gas? Israel continues progress toward becoming an • What, from Israel's perspective, are energy producer and exporter. In early December the optimal natural gas distribution 2012, it was announced that the Australian firm, channels? Woodside, would pay $2.5 billion for a 30% stake in Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean. On March 30, 2013, gas began flowing from the Tamar field, ushering in a new era that will lead

the jewish people policy institute 67 Conclusion The following 21 dilemmas, arranged according to their intensity, arise from the issues discussed in The prosperity and security of the Jewish people this review. All await decisions by the Government as a whole are substantially affected by trends of Israel: taking place in the geopolitical arena. Israel's actions in this arena sometimes affect the interests Security Threats and Strategic Issues: of Diaspora Jews. For example, if Israel resumes negotiations with the Palestinians in the coming 1. Should Israel strike Iran alone if it concludes year, sensitive questions will arise over issues dear that the Iranians have crossed the red line? to Jews everywhere. The future of Jerusalem is 2. How can Israel continue to block the transfer at their heart. Similarly, of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah without in another, mysterious being drawn into the Syrian morass or being Israel's area, the suicide of pulled into a war in the north actions in the Mossad agent, Ben Zygier, 3. How can we prevent the use of Syrian chemical geopolitical which became public in weapons against Israeli targets and their falling arena February 2012, shocked into the hands of terrorist organizations? sometimes the Australian Jewish affect the community and aroused 4. How is it possible to curb the terrorist threat interests of fears of dual loyalty from Sinai? Diaspora Jews accusations because 5. How should Israel deal with Hamas in order to he held an Australian deter it and maintain the Gaza cease-fire? passport. While the scope 6. How can Israel build a diplomatic and security and legitimacy of Diaspora apparatus that will ensure the protection of Jews' involvement in Israeli decisions close to their gas drilling areas and delivery channels? hearts remains an open question, there is no question that the major decisions must be made by 7. Who is the ideal customer for Israeli gas and Israel, and that this year it faces an unpredictable what are the preferable supply channels? and danger-laden geopolitical arena. The number of ‘moving parts’ the Israeli decision maker must Israel and its Neighbors: take into account makes the job of managing a 8. What preparations should be made for the foreign and defense policy extremely complex. possible break-up of Syria and its becoming a This is likely to staunch the appeal of a proactive failed state? approach that seeks to identify opportunities 9. How can Israel continue to maintain its peace and take the initiative, and instead reinforce an treaty with Egypt and strengthen security approach of digging in and waiting ‘until the dust cooperation between the two countries? settles.’

68 the jewish people policy institute 10. How can we continue to support the 20. How can Israel take advantage of American survivability of the Kingdom of Jordan – its Jewish support without pushing them into an security, economy, and stability? untenable corner? 11. How can we foster Israel's relations with Turkey following Netanyahu's apology? Israel’s Standing in the International Arena: 12. How should Israel relate to the Arab Spring 21. Is it possible to improve Israel's international and to the rise of political Islam so as to serve standing without progress on an Israeli- Israeli interests? Palestinian settlement, and if so, how? 13. Do Israel and the Jewish people have the ability Some of the necessary decisions deal with questions to moderate the hatred of the ‘Arab street’ of extreme political sensitivity. The most critical whose influence is growing? and sensitive of all involves the form Israel would like to see a future agreement with the Palestinians The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: take. A fundamental effort to clarify Israel's policy goals vis-à-vis this issue would provide a clear and 14. What is the best and most advisable way to useful compass for dealing with other difficult revive the peace process and make it effective? issues. Considering these many weighty issues, it is 15. What are Israel‘s preferred parameters for a difficult to overstate the importance of decisions permanent agreement with the Palestinians? that will be made in Jerusalem in the near future. They have the potential to substantially impact the 16. Does Israel prefer an alternative to a permanent future of Israel and the Jewish people. agreement: Conflict management? Interim agreements? Unilateral steps? 17. How can we include Egypt (and other Arab states) in a beneficial role in the peace process?

The Relationship Triangle: Jerusalem- Washington-U.S. Jewish Community: 18. How can Israel continue to maintain its friendship with the United States without relinquishing essential Israeli interests? 19. How can Israel persuade the United States to remain a present and dominant force in the Middle East?

the jewish people policy institute 69 Notes 1. General (Res.) Amos Yadlin, at the conference of the Institute for National Security Studies, April 23, 2013. 2. Haaretz, April 29, 2013. 3. President Obama in an interview with Channel 2, March 14, 2013. 4. Interview with Kol Yisrael, April 16, 2013. 5. Haaretz, March 21, 2013. 6. Haaretz, February 14, 2013. 7. JTA, May 4, 2013. 8. CBS News, April 30, 2013. 9. Haaretz, April 29, 2013. 10. New York Times, May 15, 2013. 11. Interview with Israel Army Radio, April 16, 2013. 12. Al Arabiya, April 18, 2013. 13. Atlantic Monthly, March 19, 2013. 14. Haaretz, February 28, 2013. 15. Haaretz, March 4, 2013. 16. Haaretz, April 19, 2013.

70 the jewish people policy institute The Triangular Relationship – Washington, Jerusalem, and the Jewish People 2013: New U.S. and Israeli Administrations, Challenges 6 and Opportunities

alleged, subsequent State Department missteps; Obama and netanyahu: First Amendment issues such as the tracking of "A second Chance" telephone conversations of AP reporters, and the The results of recent elections in the United unfolding Prism controversy; and the targeting by States and Israel threatened to lead to a path the Internal Revenue Service of groups opposing of continued conflict, and to leave the Jewish the president – does not encourage him to seek community in the United States between a out additional fights 18 months before mid-term rock and a hard place: between an American Congressional elections. president – without future electoral constraints, Challenges in the special relationship between the who is concentrating on domestic affairs and two countries were fueled by different approaches who is perceived by some as likely to conduct to dealing with Iran's nuclearization, resolving a conciliatory foreign policy, sometimes at the the Arab-Israeli conflict, and responding to the expense of traditional allies, like Hosni Mubarak – dramatic developments in the Middle East. The and an Israeli prime minister with a conservative tension that characterized relations between the image who leads a party with members further to two leaders during the previous four years, and the right than in the past, and with former, more the perception that Israel attempted to interfere in moderate members excluded. domestic American politics, also increased fears of And yet, for the time being, it appears that fears of conflict. conflict are not on the agenda. The storm over the Despite criticism of Barack Obama before the Middle East heightens Israel's strategic importance elections – at home and abroad – a majority of to the West and provides a second chance for the Americans decided clearly in favor of giving the two leaders to engage in dialogue and cooperation. first African-American president another chance The fact that the president is dealing with scandals to succeed. Not to do so would have turned the that may challenge his credibility at home – the clock back and increased frustration among the murder of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and, ethnic minorities integral to his support base. This

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 71 at a time when far-reaching demographic changes first time, their support was split along lines more herald the growing influence of the U.S. Hispanic, similar to those of the general population, and African-American, and Asian communities, was less motivated by sectorial interests. many of whom identify as Democrats and pose Side effects include: the Haredi parties losing their a considerable challenge to the future of the position as power brokers; the Arab bloc, in the Republican Party. absence of a center-left blocking group, was left In Israel, the election results primarily pointed to again without significant bargaining power; and an expected generational change of leadership, similarly, Meretz remained outside the coalition and a weakening divide between center-right even though it doubled its numbers at the polls. and center-left blocs. This is, primarily, a result of Netanyahu was not left without difficulties on the eroded public confidence domestic front. He faces complicated political that a Palestinian partner and social challenges. His new coalition does for peace negotiations not promise an easy road. He is blamed for the Israel is exists. Israeli voters deficit that, according to worst-case estimates, not the looked for fresh faces and has reached 30-40 billion shekels; an OECD report main factor found them in almost that placed Israel at the top of both the poverty in how every party. Not only table and the list showing income gaps between American Jews Netanyahu, but Avigdor rich and poor in developed countries; and for vote Lieberman, Tzippi Livni, certain questionable travel costs and expenses at and Shaul Mofaz too, lost official residences. some of their magic and were consigned to the Some American Jews, mainly those active in old generation. Naftali the various Jewish organizations, approached Bennett and Yair Lapid, the November elections fearful that, in light of and to some extent Shelly Yachimovich, along tensions between Obama and Netanyahu, they with many on their party lists, were perceived would find themselves caught between the two. largely as the ‘future leadership.’ And yet, pre- This is a corner they do not wish to be in as it election public opinion polls and analysis of raises a concern that they could be accused of the results suggest that none among this new favoring Israeli interests over those of the U.S. leadership was seen as a real alternative to They were also unhappy with the American media Netanyahu as prime minister. At the same time, for playing up a perceived Israeli preference for there are signs of another notable development: the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. This the successful absorption and integration of the is not the first time this has happened. The late ‘new aliyot,’ particularly the younger generation Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin's support for of olim from the former Soviet Union. For the the Republicans was even more overt, and Ariel

72 the jewish people policy institute Sharon enthusiastically supported George W. It is doubtful that the visit led to a complete Bush. American Jews have never welcomed Israeli reversal of Israeli public opinion regarding interference in their political arena, just as Israelis Obama. Although the concerns about and do not appreciate such interference from the opposition to him abated (according to a poll by U. S. This feeling was also detectable among some the Smith Institute in Israel on the eve of his visit of Romney's Jewish supporters. and shortly after it, the number of Israelis who On the other hand, Obama was seen by some defined Obama as a pro-Palestinian president fell in the Jewish establishment as ready, at Israel’s from 36% to only 16%); the percentage of support expense, to advance a worldview inconsistent for and confidence in him rose only one point with its ties to the Jewish state. Some have also (from 25% to 26%). On the other hand, his words noted that he is often reluctant to attend large resonated with Jewish audiences in the United Jewish conferences. Some prominent Jewish The American States. With a sense of leaders have not regarded him as a friend, even president's visit relief, they received his though members of the administrations in both to Jerusalem words enthusiastically. Washington and Jerusalem have pointed out soon after that cooperation between the two countries has Did Obama's personal elections reached unprecedented heights during his term attitude toward Israel allowed in office. and Netanyahu change Obama's Jewish At bottom, Israel is not the main factor in how overnight? This is a critics to American Jews vote. They vote according to question for which there breathe more U.S. interests. This was also the case in the is no clear answer. There easily 2008 elections (70% voted for Obama in 2012, is no doubt that the compared to 75% in 2008), despite concerns of a absence of Middle East possible crisis between the two countries. stability strengthens tangential and/or intersecting interests of the The American president's visit to Jerusalem soon countries. The American president cannot ignore after elections allowed Obama's Jewish critics the civil war in Syria, the situation in Egypt, and to breathe more easily. In Israel, Obama showed the lurking dangers threatening regimes friendly deep friendship. His every word was crafted with to the United States elsewhere in the region. an eye to relieving tensions and to strengthening This situation positions Israel as an island of the Israeli public's confidence in him and his stability, a loyal ally whose strategic importance policies. Along with the traditional support his to the United States and the West redounds to predecessors had shown for the State of Israel's its benefit. accomplishments, he voiced explicit support for the Zionist idea.

the jewish people policy institute 73 More Confrontation or on fears that he was committed to dialogue with on the Road to Reconciliation? Iran, mobilizing the support of moderate Islam in advancing withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, As things stand, Obama's visit to Israel has set the removing the Pakistani threat and, particularly, personal relationship between the two leaders on strengthening ties between his administration and a positive track. Official spokesmen from both the Arab world, even at Israel's expense. administrations stress that relations between the Obama and his advisers understood that progress countries also benefited. The positive atmosphere on a diplomatic settlement in the Middle East, was also the result of deepening dialogue and which requires far-reaching concessions, could not cooperation between Washington and Jerusalem succeed without the overwhelming support of the against the backdrop of Israeli public. Such support could not be achieved bloody civil war in Syria; without confidence in the leader running things in turbulence in Egypt that Washington. Washington and is increasing instability Jerusalem need throughout the Middle These various constraints, however, do not fully to coordinate East; developments over explain the urgency the U.S. placed on the visit. timetables the past two years in Libya There is no doubt that these matters could have and other and Tunisia; concerns waited two or three months. Thus, it seems that issues related arising in Saudi Arabia; what the administration considered urgent to Iran secular protests in Turkey; was the need for Washington and Jerusalem to and the threat to Jordan’s coordinate timetables and other issues related stability. to Iran. That said, the timing Prime Minister Netanyahu made halting Iran's the Americans chose for efforts to achieve military nuclear capability his Obama’s Jerusalem visit, two days after Netanyahu's top priority at the beginning of his 2009 term. new government was sworn in, was inconvenient. This approach was seen, in the West, as the main Although the date was set almost two months goal, the accomplishment of which he regarded as earlier, it was clear even then that assembling the his historic mission. After he was elected, he was coalition would not conclude before the visit. disappointed by the level of Israeli preparedness for a military strike against the Teheran-led Technical explanations were given: White House nuclearization program, and faced broad scheduling constraints; the desire of the president opposition from most of the heads of the defense to visit at the earliest possible time as he had not establishment. As a result, he acted on two levels: done so in his first term; meeting the new Israeli government; and confidence building with the A. He ordered the defense establishment to Israeli public who had had doubts about him based prepare and plan alternative options for a

74 the jewish people policy institute strike, while providing the resources to do so It’s possible that this delay contributed to building (these efforts bore fruit in 2012). trust between the two, but at the same it eroded B. He reinforced a ‘brinksmanship’ policy, and some of Israel’s bargaining position, which was simultaneously worked vigorously on the better prior to elections. Netanyahu's September diplomatic front with Western policymakers 2012 UN address, which postponed the date for an to persuade them that unless a U.S.-led Israeli military operation until summer 2013, can coalition was formed to attack the Iranian be seen as responsive to Obama's expectations. installations, Israel would have no choice Based on this analysis, the urgency the but to take action and do so itself before the administration attached to President Obama's window for intervention closes. visit can be seen as designed mainly to ensure a Israel's determination percolated during the four further delay to a possible years of Netanyahu's term. At the same time, Israeli early summer The urgency the Obama led an international effort for dialogue military action or, at least, U.S. attached to with, and sanctions against, Iran aimed at halting to coordinate timetables Obama's visit its nuclear program, while publicly committing with it, to wait for the can be seen as to leave all options – including military – on the results of the June 14 designed mainly table. We should emphasize that Obama did in Iranian elections and to ensure a fact order the American military to prepare for to allow for another further delay such a possibility and to develop the necessary diplomatic effort at of a possible military means. dialogue to remove the Israeli early threat. summer Even though – at least on the declarative level – military action Jerusalem and Washington had the identical goal A lack of coordination of disposing of the Iranian nuclear capability, there on Iran would likely was a difference in defining the red line Iran should put the relationship not be allowed to cross, and so a gap developed between Jerusalem and Washington back on a between their timetables. Among other reasons, negative track, possibly leading to a clash. The this was so because the American capability to second issue with the potential to spoil the new deploy more extensive force, and at a higher congenial atmosphere is the peace process with technological level, gave them a later intervention the Palestinians. deadline. The general understanding is that President Obama All indications were that Israel's assessment was did not place the Palestinian issue at the top of the that the right time to intervene was summer- White House agenda at the beginning of his second fall 2012. Interested in preventing any Israeli term. He knows well the pitfalls and challenges he intervention before U.S. elections, Obama objected. faces internationally and domestically. The Middle

the jewish people policy institute 75 East peace process has burned the fingers of a different from those of his predecessors. number of U.S. presidents and he wants to protect While they mainly emphasized global and his own hands. regional interests, Obama spoke out of an inner Nevertheless, his secretary of state, John Kerry, has identification with the victim – those under shown determination to move the process forward occupation – even if he recognizes the Jews' out of a sense that it is beneficial to both sides and historic right to the Land of Israel. Obama's that it would serve U.S. interests in strengthening emotional identification with the Palestinians its position in the Middle East. The president is as victims, as opposed to those in Israel who see giving him freedom to maneuver. If Kerry succeeds, the Six-Day War victory as having liberated the Obama will reap the rewards; if he fails, Kerry will heart of the Land of Israel, risks rolling back the bear the responsibility. relationship to a darker place. Secretary Even so, it is important of State to emphasize that, ‘Bibi or Bibi’ John Kerry notwithstanding the In the 2009 elections, Tzippi Livni had a winning has shown praise Obama lavished on campaign. At first her strategic advisers focused determination the accomplishments of on Ehud Barak, aiming to erode his image and to move the the Jewish state, of Israeli to force him out of the race for prime minister. process forward. society and of the Zionist Later, they turned to the ultimate slogan: "It's Obama is giving movement in his Jerusalem either Tzippi or Bibi." Livni's Kadima led with him freedom to speech, he left no doubt 28 Knesset seats over Netanyahu's Likud, which maneuver how deeply he identifies took only 27. But Livni's success came at the with the suffering of the expense of her potential coalition partners. She Palestinians as a people took votes from both Labor and Meretz. She who have lived under was not successful in damaging the right-wing occupation for more than 45 years, and he did not majority bloc, and as a result she was unable to hesitate to ask the Israelis to go over their leaders' form a coalition. heads to bring reconciliation and peace on the basis of ‘two states for two peoples.’ In 2013, such a scenario was not possible. No party managed to put up an alternative candidate The message to the Israeli people was powerful for prime minister. Polls taken on the eve of the and persuasive. On the one hand, Israelis were election showed that none of the party heads was impressed that before them stood a president seen by the public as being able at present to deal who sought to demonstrate friendship and with the challenges and threats on the agenda. In sympathy, despite the image he had previously the months leading up to the elections, Bibi was had. On the other hand, his address was King of Israel.

76 the jewish people policy institute How was it that the strength of the "Likud- dropped (for example: in Ashdod, from 50.6% Beitenu" list led by Netanyahu and Lieberman, in 2009 to 36.41 % in 2013; in Yavneh, from who ran on a joint slate, lost 26% of its strength 41.1% to 30%; in Holon, from 39.9% to 30.84%; – an erosion from 42 seats down to 31? in Rishon Lezion, from 41.7% to 31.34%). An integrated analysis of the results shows that in D. Along with FSU immigrants, Lieberman had 2013, the Israeli electorate voted for a generational also enjoyed the support of activist nationalist leadership change, even if there was no leading voters from the Labor movement. In the candidate to oppose Netanyahu for prime distant past, those who had identified with minister. The certainty that, despite the vote share, Ahdut HaAvoda (Union of Labor), supporters Netanyahu would ultimately succeed in putting of Yitzchak Tabenkin and Yigal Alon, and later together a coalition made it easier for the other with Yitzchak Rabin, parties to increase their success at Likud's expense. did not find their place Activist There are also other explanations and facts: in the Labor Party nationalist A. Merging the Likud and Yisrael Beitenu lists that, in their view, had voters, who in immediately eroded support for both parties. veered to the left over the past voted the last two decades. for Lieberman, B. The legal proceedings against Lieberman with Historically, it was found an respect to the appointment of the ambassador difficult for them to alternative to Latvia, and the general sense that the state vote for Likud and for in HaBayit attorney’s office and the attorney general had Netanyanu, but some HaYehudi and not managed to fully exploit the investigation, preferred to give their Yesh Atid which allowed the Yisrael Beitenu chairman vote to the right-wing to escape the main allegations – bribery and bloc. In the recent breach of trust – deterred committed Likud elections, they sought voters. an alternative. C. Russian immigrants, particularly the younger E. HaBayit HaYehudi (a union of the National generation, are becoming integrated into Religious Party and The National Union), the general population. Many of them have headed by Naftali Bennett, itself presented a stopped voting automatically for sectorial right-wing ideological alternative and ran a immigrant parties, and are beginning to brilliant campaign under the slogan "Bennett identify as Israelis in every way. Their vote and Netanyahu," in spite of problematic was divided according to general interests. In relations between them. The union led to a communities with a relatively high proportion doubling of HaBayit HaYehudi's strength, with of residents from the former Soviet Union a significant number of its new supporters (FSU), support for Netanyahu and Lieberman not coming from the religious community

the jewish people policy institute 77 (which characterized the voters of the two right in their view and did not include figures parties individually in the 2009 elections) with liberal opinions such as Benny Begin, Dan but rather from the secular population. Meridor, or Michael Eitan. According to a study by Prof. Asher Cohen of It is worth noting that Avigdor Lieberman has Bar-Ilan University that looked into Bennett's maintained his power, for the time being, and success and examined data from 100 large continues to be active behind the scenes. Even polling places, most of them on kibbutzim, though he is subject to certain limitations – his support in secular areas grew by between including a ban on his appointment as a member 100 and 250%. The most significant increase of the cabinet – for as long as there are criminal occurred in areas with proceedings against him, he has delayed the high concentrations of appointment of a foreign minister until his trial FSU immigrants (250%); a has concluded. In the meantime, he holds the The Labor significant increase (230%) most important post in the Knesset, chairman Party won also occurred in wealthy of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. two more communities with largely Moreover, Lieberman was a central player in seats, but secular populations; and assembling the coalition, in the allocation of Yachimovich it was actually in national- ministerial portfolios, and – early in coalition fell short religious communities negotiations – in bringing Tzippi Livni into the of her party's that support for Bennett government and her appointment as minister of potential dropped by 10% in favor justice. of Otzmat Yisrael, which positioned itself at the Even though it is possible to see the election right-most edge of the results as showing a degree of erosion in the political map but, in the end, did not reach the strength of the blocs, a true analysis indicates electoral threshold. confusion rather than dramatic change. In the end, the bloc that was able to form a coalition in F. The second alternative for moderate right- the 18th Knesset, in 2009, did not incur serious wing voters was the surprise of the 2013 damage. Then, the coalition comprised the Likud, elections – Yesh Atid (There is a Future), Yair Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah and HaBayit Lapid's new party, which won 19 Knesset seats, HaYehudi (61 seats), along with four additional mostly at the expense of Kadima and HaTnua members of Knesset from Haichud HaLeumi (The Movement) headed by Tzippi Livni. Yesh (who, positioned at the far right of the political Atid also won over some traditional Likud spectrum, lacked any alternative). The 2013 results voters who found themselves unable to vote produced a drop in the total number of seats held for Lieberman, and who were disappointed by the center-right bloc to 61, yet it is important with the Likud list, which had become too far to note that Yair Lapid made it clear immediately

78 the jewish people policy institute after the elections that he would not support the HaTorah, which increased its strength by 40% – formation of a coalition that depended on the from five seats to seven. votes of the Arab parties. In so doing he avoided Thus, the bloc map confusion in Israel was not a possible center-left bloc. Furthermore, almost the result of seismic political change, but rather two seats-worth of votes for Otzma LeYisrael mostly due to unexpected cooperation between were wasted because the party failed to reach the the two young leaders: Yair Lapid and Naftali electoral threshold. Bennett. Both of whom, each for his own reasons, An analysis of voting habits also explains Labor decided to join forces under the campaign leader Yachimovich's decision not to take a slogan "equality in sharing the burden" in order clear ideological left-wing position on the peace to block the Haredi parties. Without HaBayit process: she sought to "bring home" the very HaYehudi, Netanyahu nationalist Labor supporters who at the last would not have been able minute preferred Lapid and Bennett. Even though to form a coalition, even the Labor Party won two more seats – 15 in the with Haredi support. Bennett made present Knesset – the common wisdom is that The moment Lapid it clear Yachimovich fell short of the potential, because vetoed Shas and Yahadut that he of Yesh Atid’s success, and because Meretz, on HaTorah's entry into would not the Zionist left, doubled its power and went from the government, and join a three seats to six. Bennett made it clear coalition There were minor fluctuations, to the left and to that he would not join a without Lapid the right, but at the center of the political map, the coalition without Lapid, 2013 elections do not indicate a dramatic change. the character and agenda When we add the 19 seats won by Yair Lapid, the of the government were six seats won by Tzippi Livni, and the two seats set: to focus primarily on of Shaul Mofaz, we arrive at a total of 27. Kadima domestic and security won 28 seats in the 2009 elections. The number is matters and exercise essentially identical. caution in pursuing the peace process, which could have threatened the coalition. This focus is Shas – the Sephardi Haredi party – maintained mainly in line with the public’s frustration with its power with 11 Knesset seats, even though it the peace process. It may also show that Lapid had the potential to make gains in accord with and Bennett, who aspire to replace the current demographic developments. This is interesting as leadership, are beginning their collaborative it may signify an erosion of sectorial voting among effort with an eye to the future. its traditional base. That was not the case among the voters of the Ashkenazi Haredi party, Yahadut

the jewish people policy institute 79 The Coalition Survival Test If he decides that an operation against Iran is unavoidable, and if the attacks against Syria herald Benjamin Netanyahu's political seniority was a major shift in policy, he may, in a time of trial, evident given the background of security garner the public support he received in the challenges and the experience he gained as the elections. But the longevity of that support will longest serving prime minister except for David depend on the results of exercising the military Ben Gurion. Despite criticism leveled against him option, including how the other side responds. If, – on the one hand that his hawkish positions in the same context, or as a result of U.S. efforts, and lack of a diplomatic initiative eroded Israel's Netanyahu decides to promote the peace process image in the international with the Palestinians and loses Naftali Bennett and The Israeli arena and, on the other, his party’s support, he may be able to replace them public came that his excessive caution in the coalition with Shelly Yachimovich and Labor. impeded his capacity to appreciate Other complicated challenges facing the prime to make decisions – the Netanyahu minister lie in the social arena. At the start of Israeli public came to because during his new term, the Netanyahu government is appreciate him because his tenure fewer grappling with serious domestic problems, which during his tenure fewer Israelis and are affecting public opinion toward it. At the same Israelis and fewer Arabs fewer Arabs time, criticism – of government waste, the entire were killed than under were killed than leadership's use of luxury cars, the opposition any other prime minister, under any other by ministers to combining ministries despite and that under his watch, prime minister the decline in the number of cabinet members, Israel did not find itself in the increase in the cost of maintaining official any serious crisis. He is also residences, and of excessive flight expenses – perceived as responsible for Israel’s satisfactory mounts. navigation of the global economic crisis. Still, he was not able to translate his personal public The national deficit is estimated at between 30 and opinion advantage (some 60% supported him 40 billion shekels, and the government has been for prime minister in various polls taken on the forced to take emergency steps that mostly hit the eve of elections) into a Likud-Beitenu ballot box lower and middle classes. triumph. A 2010 OECD report, just published in 2013, claims Indeed, up until now, Netanyahu has succeeded that Israel leads the developed countries in the in conducting a foreign and security policy that number of poor with 20.9% – ahead of Mexico has avoided major military confrontation. After (20.4%), Turkey (19.3%), Chile (18%), and the the elections, the political challenges he faces are United States (17.4%). This figure is mainly based primarily domestic. on income data provided by interviewees in the

80 the jewish people policy institute Haredi and Arab communities. When purchasing juncture, given the harsh economic measures power is factored in, the poverty figures drop to necessary to balance the budget. Once the steps 12%. The last report published by the National are in place it would be more difficult for him Insurance Institute of Israel (for 2011) divides the to withdraw from the coalition since, from a impoverished population, estimated at 20% of political perspective, it is preferable to wait for the general population, into two main groups by signs that the economy is improving under his purchasing power – 63% of poor families are by watch. He may need a slate of successes before he income and expenditures below the poverty line, competes again for the public's vote. A mid-May and the other 37% is above the line. These figures Haaretz poll, taken after the budget and the new diminish the number of poor families to 12.6%. measures were approved Israel is also among the top countries in the gap by the government, Finance Ministry index between rich and poor – in fifth place after shows that Lapid's public plans to cover Chile, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States. approval rate fell by 34% the deficit are and reached a low of generating Among the steps the Finance Ministry plans to just 19%, even though unrest and cover the deficit: requiring homemakers (mostly support for his party, at threaten to stay-at-home mothers) to make social security this stage, has not been spark a renewal payments, a cut in child allowances, a tax on damaged. The same poll of the social pension deductions, a tax on those seeking to buy showed that support protests of better homes, a 1.5% increase in income tax, and for Netanyahu has also summer 2011 a 1% increase in VAT. These are steps that hit the eroded, from 53% to 39%. lower and middle classes hardest. The wealthy are not expected to be affected to the same degree. This is so despite new taxes on yachts, private Obama and the Challenges planes, and luxury goods, and a 1% cut in the of his Second Term salaries of government ministers and members of Barack Obama's November 6, 2012 victory was the Knesset. Large corporations will continue to decisive, though not overwhelming. He defeated pay tax at a substantially lower rate despite the Romney in the national popular vote 51 to 47%. planned 1.5% increase in income tax. Even so, his victory in the American Electoral These steps, which come in the wake of massive College system was pronounced, winning 332 loss write-downs by Israeli tycoons, are generating electoral votes to Romney's 206. Beyond the unrest and threaten to spark a renewal of the social ideological arguments between Democrats and protests of the summer of 2011. Republicans and the disagreements over the extent Yair Lapid's appointment as minister of finance of his success in his first term, the citizens of the places him in a most problematic position at this United States chose to grant him a second term as

the jewish people policy institute 81 president, a second chance to lead their society – succeeded in changing its direction and in steadily which has seen dark periods of slavery and racism leading the recovery from the economic crisis of in its history – to a more egalitarian future. 2008, although at a pace slower than expected. In this context, it is appropriate to mention the He contributed to the significant rehabilitation of demographic change underway in the United the auto industry that had been facing collapse, States, and to point out the continuing trend and strengthened the banking system. He is also benefiting the Democratic Party, which leads leading a major effort to free the United States among minorities. In the last two elections, there from its dependence on energy imports. was a further decline in the percentage of whites in In the area of defense, Obama’s greatest the electorate, from 79.2% in 2004 to 76.3% in 2008, achievements have been the tightening of sanctions and 73.7 in 2012. The percentage of blacks grew, on Iran and the development of a military option from 11.1% in 2004 to 12.3% in 2008, and 13.4% against it, and in leading the operation to kill Osama in 2012. There was also a parallel increase in the Bin Laden. Although Obama indeed withdrew U.S. percentage of Hispanics forces from Iraq as promised, he did not succeed This positive and Asians. Also, a in ensuring continued U.S. influence there. At the trend among significant increase in same time, he is leading a process to withdraw minorities the number of blacks American troops from Afghanistan, and the United points to their actually participated States has grown weary of direct involvement in deepening in the elections. This the Middle East. He avoided supporting Mubarak’s identification positive trend among regime during the revolution in Egypt, decided with the country. minorities points to their not to send troops to Syria to intervene in the This phenomenon deepening identification bloody civil war there, and ‘led from behind’ in helped ensure with the country. This the struggle to eliminate Gaddafi's regime in Libya. Obama's re- phenomenon helped The president's opponents have accused him of election ensure President Obama's weakness in the face of repeated North Korean 2012 re-election. provocations, which has contributed to an erosion During his first term, of U.S. standing as the world's leading power, and Obama was seen as centralizing power and signals totalitarian regimes such as Iran that they reserving exclusive rights over decision-making do not have much to fear. to the White House. His most significant And yet, above all, Barack Obama excelled accomplishment was healthcare reform, which in maintaining a clean image during his first for the first time will provide all Americans term. Six months after his second inauguration, with attainable health insurance. If the reform's though, the American president is confronting implementation is successful, it will be considered some difficult scandals: an historic achievement. On the economy, he

82 the jewish people policy institute A. First Amendment issues such as the president at the expense of other, weightier Justice Department's tracking telephone issues, including the Middle East. Such a situation conversations that reporters and editors of the may lead to further erosion of the United States' AP news service conducted with sources as image and, ultimately, harm top-level Israeli part of an investigation into leaks of classified interests. In parallel, this Annual Assessment information about covert American activity in chapter once again raises the impact of the Yemen, and the unfolding Prism controversy. continuing progress of the political influence of B. Exposure of illegal activity by the Internal U.S. minorities. This trend reinforces the need to Revenue Service against conservative political think and plan strategically in adapting to the groups during the 2012 presidential election new demographic reality. campaign. The tax authorities issued an apology over painstaking, inappropriate tax The American Jewish Community exemption scrutiny of dozens of new groups identified with the ‘Tea Party’ movement. American Jews' traditional support for the Democratic The Justice Department announced the The political Party came in at around launching of an official inquiry to determine influence of 70% because of their what was behind the "special treatment" these U.S. minorities liberal inclinations. Only conservative groups received and whether reinforces 30% of Jews supported this was done with the knowledge of top the need to the Republican Party. Even administration officials. think and plan though the Jewish vote is strategically, to C. A demand to look into the September only marginally affected adapt to the new 2012 incident in Benghazi, Libya in which by the administration's demographic the U.S. consulate and the CIA compound attitude toward Israel, reality were attacked by Libyan terrorists who the Israeli issue plays a murdered four American diplomats, including prominent role in the Ambassador Christopher Stevens. There are American political system, allegations that former Secretary of State and especially in election campaigns. This has Hillary Clinton and the White House covered occurred mainly at the initiative of the Republican up intelligence reports of a planned attack and Party, which uses the erosion of Israel's popularity chose to describe the incident as a Muslim among the liberal wing of the Democratic Party to protest run amok. attract supporters and raise funds among vehement These affairs, which came to light in May 2013, Israel supporters, Jewish and Christian alike. threaten to rock the Obama administration This effort has not had a significant impact on in the coming months and to preoccupy the voting itself. As we have written in previous Annual

the jewish people policy institute 83 Assessments, American Jews vote as Americans Jewish conferences. Others were insulted when seeking to better their country and to influence they felt that the president was applying excessive their country's values, economics, and society. pressure on Israel, or that he, and those around What is represented as an Israeli interest does him, did not behave respectfully enough toward not comprise the central factor in their voting the Israeli prime minister. decisions. This in no way suggests that the State of These feelings were fully exploited by the Israel and its existential interests are not high on Republican Party's strategic consultants, who used the agenda of the organized Jewish community. It is Israel and the long-standing acquaintance between even possible to see the criticism of Israeli policy in Romney and Netanyahu as a card in their battle liberal circles in a positive light: it likely attests to the for the presidency. This use was of no help to Israel concern and importance within the American foreign policy establishment that these circles or in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. attached to the special We should note that, from conversations with For American connection between the Republican supporters, it appears that some were Jews, Obama's communities. less than enthusiastic about the attempts to drag first term In the 2008 elections, most Israel into the United States' domestic inter-party had its ups Jewish voters supported struggle. and downs the anticipated change And, in fact, when it came to choosing between in the United States and Obama and Romney in November 2012, most considered Obama as a Jews returned to the usual voting patterns (70% worthy candidate who for the Democrats, 30% for the Republicans), out would contribute to of a fundamental faith in Obama's approach and closing the rifts within out of party loyalty. Both camps within the Jewish American society, to improving the economy, community noted that it was better to keep Israel to raising its standing internationally, and to out of America's internal political disputes and to advancing an agenda that would serve American continue with the Jewish organizations' policy of interests. According to various polls, 75% of Jewish ensuring that support for Israel is traditional and voters voted for him in 2008. bipartisan. For American Jews, Obama's first term had its Another phenomenon related to internal American ups and downs. Some were disappointed by the politics worthy of attention is the erosion in Jewish president, not necessarily in the Israeli context, but representation in the U.S. House of Representatives because, in their view, he did not run the United and the Senate. Jewish representation in both States in the way they had expected, or because chambers fell to its lowest level in 20 years following he did not demonstrate warmth toward the Jewish the 2012 elections. Only 22 Jews were elected to community, largely avoiding participation in major

84 the jewish people policy institute the House and only 10 serve in the Senate. This is operations related to developments in the despite the fact that for the first time the mayors Middle East, particularly with respect to Hamas, of the three largest American cities – New York, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran. It is true that Chicago, and Los Angeles – are Jewish. The lower U.S. Jews enjoy greater individual security than numbers in Congress may reflect a decline of those in other, smaller and weaker communities. young Jews choosing a career in politics, as well But there is a need to refresh community as the aging and retirement of senior politicians. security arrangements in the U.S., on both The Jewish leadership in the United States is also national and local levels, as well as to prepare entering a period of generational transition, both for crisis management. This is necessary because, among the national professional leadership and given the difficulties hostile Arab forces face in on the local community level. It needs to give responding directly to some thought to this matter and must encourage Israel, there is likely to Possible younger Jews to take over the leadership positions be an effort on the part proactive that will become vacant in the next few years. of the governments in Israeli military Teheran and Damascus The liberal attitudes of American Jews, both in the operations and among terrorist larger society and within the community itself, and are likely to organizations to devise the imperative of mutual tolerance between the incite terrorist and incite terrorist religious streams, is expressed toward Israel as well. activity against activity against Jewish American Jews feel more comfortable with liberal Jewish targets targets around the world. Israeli governments. Extreme phenomena, such as around the The Israeli government, the exclusion of women, discrimination against world liberal streams at the Western Wall and increasing for its part, is committed ‘Haredization’ provoke concern, particularly to including this factor among the younger and middle-aged generations. in its decision-making Perhaps for this reason, even though the new considerations and intelligence gathering before Israeli coalition does not show signs of greater engaging in proactive operations, and to sharing ideological moderation in diplomatic areas, it will the information with intelligence sources in make it easier to strengthen ties between Israel targeted countries. and the North American Jewish community, given the coalition's efforts to find more liberal solutions in the area of religion, and its openness toward the various streams in Judaism. The final subject that needs to be addressed in this context concerns security implications for the Diaspora of possible proactive Israeli military

the jewish people policy institute 85 Concluding Points consideration into its decision-making, and Jewish communities should prepare for • Obama's visit to Israel considerably reduced crisis management that includes maximum the level of suspicion and mistrust toward cooperation with local security forces. his administration among the Israeli public, • There has been an erosion in Jewish political and enables closer cooperation between representation in American politics that is the countries, as well as an improvement in symptomatic of the generational change the personal relationship between him and within U.S. Jewish leadership. The Jewish Netanyahu. Two challenges to this positive community should encourage prominent trend may arise: and talented young Jews to enter the A. A renewed American political arena and to assume leadership Obama's effort to restart the positions in national and local Jewish visit to Israel peace process with the organizations. Palestinians; considerably • The Israeli elections: The increased strength reduced B. An Israeli decision of the new parties reveals a yearning the level of to ignore the American for a generational leadership change. suspicion timetable and initiate a Nevertheless, for now, no leading candidate and mistrust military strike against has been found to challenge Benjamin toward his Iranian nuclear sites Netanyahu as prime minister. The recent administration without agreement elections also brought good news reflecting among the on ‘red lines’ vis-à-vis the integration of immigrants from the Israeli public Iran, and without prior FSU – and particularly among the younger coordination. generation – within the wider population, • The turmoil besetting the Middle East, the and a significant decline in sectorial voting. threat to Israel resulting from the transfer of The lack of influence of the Haredi sector strategic weaponry from Syria to Hezbollah, as the power brokers in the formation and the further radicalization of Hamas are of the coalition is an additional result. likely to force Israel to take military action The composition of the new government against Iranian and Syrian interests. The allows for relative stability given efforts to absence of a response capability against improve the economy. Israel and a desire to evade responsibility • OECD data on poverty and income gaps are likely to encourage efforts by Iran, demand attention, but it is important to Hezbollah, and Hamas to activate existing point out that if the spending levels of poor terrorist cells against Jews in the Diaspora. families are considered in calculations, The Government of Israel should factor this

86 the jewish people policy institute the poverty rate drops from 21% to 12%. against liberal streams at the Western Wall, Moreover, since the beginning of 2010, there and ‘Haredization.’ has been some improvement in the poverty situation. Responsibility for the failure to include the Arab and Haredi sectors (which together make up a major proportion of the poor population) in the Israeli labor force rests on the shoulders of generations of Israeli governments, and it is the Government of Israel that must deal with this issue. A single poor child is too many, but Diaspora assistance should be coordinated with Israeli authorities to be in synch with the state’s strategic plan. • The U.S. elections: At the conclusion of Obama's first term, American Jews returned to their traditional voting patterns: 70% for the Democratic Party and 30% for the Republican Party. Israel played too prominent a role in the election campaign, even though its impact on American Jewish voting behavior was marginal. Israel should excuse itself from the American domestic political arena and should make every effort to preserve its bipartisan support. • The liberal attitudes of American Jews, both in the general society and in Jewish community frameworks, and the mutual tolerance between the religious streams are also voiced when it comes to the State of Israel. American Jews should be encouraged by the image of the new government and can take part in vigorous efforts that will ensure action against phenomena such as the exclusion of women, discrimination

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The Rise of Asia: Policy Implications 7 for Israel and the Jewish People

JPPI’s 2010 Annual Assessment included a chapter 1. Key Recent Developments in titled “Asia’s Rise: Implications for Israel and the sino-Israeli and Jewish People.” It repeated well-known predictions Indo-Israeli Ties that China and India were on the way to great power status; emphasized that Israel’s and the Jewish people’s stake in Asia was high; commented on A. strategic and Political front: Relative the critical importance of U.S. Middle Eastern and stagnation Asian policies and their impact on Israel’s position The main, superficial impression one gets when in Asia; analyzed the trouble with Islam that China, observing the relationship between Israel and India, and Israel all have to face, sometimes in Asia’s two rising powers is one of relative political similar but more often in very different fashion; and diplomatic stagnation in recent months, and criticized that Israel and the Jewish people particularly following the 20th anniversary paid too little attention to Asia. Partly as a result of celebrations in 2012 of the normalization of ties. this lack of attention, Israel’s relations with Asia were Prime Minister Netanyahu’s official visit to China lagging behind the links that many other countries in early May 2013, the first such visit by an Israeli have established with this continent, maybe by five prime minister in six years, may indicate a change years if not more, and which continue to lag today. in this pattern and happened just as the new Beijing government was beginning to formulate While there is some merit to comparing the policy. China’s public rhetoric toward Israel and the relationships with China and India, there are some Jewish people continues to be positive. But when it key differences in the current nature and shape of comes to some concrete matters, the relationship challenges facing Israel and the Jewish people in is difficult. The diplomatic environment in Beijing their relationship with these two countries that remains competitive with many governments sometimes require different policy approaches and substantially increasing the size and number of solutions, as will be shown in this chapter. their missions in China. Israel’s Embassy in Beijing,

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 89 despite an increase in size in recent years and Israeli industry has difficulty finding a firm the appointment of a minister-level ambassador, foothold in the Chinese and Indian markets, but remains relatively isolated and continues to face this is not necessarily China’s or India’s fault. Yet in difficulties in reaching senior Chinese decision July 2012, China and Israel signed a memorandum makers or advisers. India in turn has left Israel in of understanding according to which China will no doubt that no high level visits will take place co-finance and build a high-speed railway line to between the two countries in the foreseeable Eilat, a project designated a national priority by future. Neither the Israeli foreign minister nor the Israeli government. For Israel, getting China the Israeli defense minister (who both had visited to invest in a national venture of great, long- China) was in 2012 term strategic importance was – or would be if welcome in India. A more materialized – a major positive development. Both Israeli industry positive development was China and India show undiminished interest in has difficulties a regular flow of visits Israeli technologies and innovation. Technology finding a firm to Israel by politicians is already the indispensable back-bone of Israel’s foodhold in the from Chinese provinces, future economic relations with Asia. Chinese and and Indian government Indian markets. In terms of defense, relations with India continue ministers responsible for Technology to thrive. India remains by far the biggest foreign sectors such as tourism is already the customer for Israeli military hardware and or transportation. Israel’s backbone of technology, which gives Israel’s defense industries finance minister visited future relations an important boost. There is cooperation in India and was well many defense sectors, including in the fight received. against terrorism. Senior officers are visiting in both directions – the latest publicized visit (not B. Civilian and Military Trade and all are made public) was that of the chief of staff Economic Links: Growth, but Still of the Indian Air Force who came to Israel at Considerable Unexplored Potential the beginning of 2013. India’s defense minister's Economic exchanges and trade have been growing politically motivated turning down of his Israeli gradually, though not as fast as Israel would like. counterpart's request to make an official visit China has become Israel's third largest trade to the Defexpo India exhibition in 2012, and the partner, which is encouraging, but further growth blacklisting of one Israeli defense company for potential clearly exists. Trade with India is of the alleged corruption do not seem to have affected same order of magnitude as trade with Turkey or the defense relationship in a major way. Italy, but the Free Trade Agreement between the However, the absence of any public condemnation two countries promised by India since 2010 has of the attempted assassination of an Israeli still not been signed. diplomat by Iranian agents in Delhi (2012) and

90 the jewish people policy institute the indulgence shown an Indian citizen involved than a challenge, as it provides a space to develop in the attempt also demonstrate India’s inability Israel’s and the Jewish people’s own narrative. or unwillingness to defend its sovereignty against This opportunity to build soft power through a Iranian encroachments. With China, military comprehensive cultural outreach strategy should relations are strictly checked by an American be seized. Israel and the Jewish people urgently veto. Nevertheless, the Chinese military showed need to expand and better fund their much too its respect for, and interest in, Israel’s armed small cultural and information policy vis-à-vis Asia. forces publicly in 2011 and 2012, a new and quite The Jewish people must play a major role in this unexpected development. China invited Israel’s outreach. defense minister to an official Beijing visit, while the commander of the Chinese Navy, and later 2. Major Global and Regional the chief of staff of the Chinese Army, made highly publicized visits to Israel where they were received Trends with Future by the highest political eschelons. The explanation Implications for Israel for these visits, according to Chinese sources, was and the Jewish People’s that China was paying more attention to Israel as a Relations with crucial factor in the Middle East. At the same time, China and India a growing number of Chinese policy and defense experts were visiting Israel for discussions with A. China’s and India’s Future Growth, their Israeli colleagues. and America’s Relative Decline Abundant literature C. Soft Power and People-to-People has recently appeared China wants Contacts: The Lack of a Comprehensive describing the noticeable an America Cultural Outreach shift in the balance of that protects Both China and India have almost no history of power from the West stability indigenous anti-Semitism. There is relatively little to the East, with the in the knowledge about Jews and until today almost West yielding some of Middle East, no animosity, except to some extent among the its power to a rising Asia and that two countries’ Muslim minorities and in the case led by China and India. keeps a of India, among its intellectual elite. Hindus and This slow but steady lower profile Chinese have no interest in Muslim or Jewish holy shift of global power to in Asia places – for the Chinese even the concept is alien. Asia has the potential to Therefore, in both countries Israel and the Jewish transform China and, later people are still, to some degree, a 'blank slate,' on, probably also India which should rather be seen as an opportunity into great powers in less than a generation. Both

the jewish people policy institute 91 could soon exercise regional dominance and major superpower, but it will still be an indispensable continental or global influence – economically, great power. As predicted, the two most striking politically, and militarily. trends are Europe’s precipitous fall and India’s In November 2012, the Paris-based OECD thus steep rise. Many observers, including Indians predicted dramatic changes in the distribution of themselves, have doubts about India’s rise. The global economic power by 2060. OECD assumption is based on the safe prediction that India’s population will outpace China’s and Global GDP by Year and Country, in % reach 160 billion in twenty years. A large sector of 2011 2030 2060 India’s population will be young, increasingly better educated, professionally ambitious, geographically USA 23 18 17 mobile, and less and less burdened by the traditional Europe 17 12 9 constraints of caste, language, and religion. China 17 28 28 Economic trend evaluations over half a century India 7 11 18 are hazardous, sometimes foolhardy. Unexpected events, including natural or environmental catastrophes could change these trends. China’s GDP will surpass that of the United States in Moreover, economic growth in China and India a few more years, and India’s GDP will likely surpass has become more sluggish since 2010/2011, which that of Japan by approximately 2015. By 2060, the has led some Western observers to cast doubt on size of India’s economy could even reach that of the the inevitability of Asia's rise. But no country ever United States. The combined economies of China became a great power without overcoming major and India are likely to amount to 46% of the world hurdles, and both China and India have already economy in 2060, which is almost exactly the rank overcome many. So far, the OECD has had a good the two countries held in the mid-18th century, forecasting record. It would be wise not to dismiss before their internal troubles and the West’s their Asia forecast. expansion and imperialist interference began to undermine them. If these forecasts can be B. The U.S. 'Pivot' From the Middle East trusted – and a parallel U.S. study has corroborated to Asia the main trends – one can expect that America’s In 2011, President Obama announced that the and China’s share of the world economy will United States would “re-balance” its foreign policy remain relatively stable after 2030. This means that by “pivoting” away from the Middle East, in favor China’s dramatic rise will begin to slow down in of greater political and military engagement in the twenty years, and it also means that economically, Asia-Pacific region. This project raised hackles in America’s decline will be a very relative process. China, particularly as America tried to convince America will not remain the world’s only the world that the new policy was not directed

92 the jewish people policy institute against China – which was of questionable not change its Iran policy only to satisfy Israel. A veracity. America’s old-new concerns with Egypt, change in China’s policy toward Iran will likely only Syria, the Gulf, Iran, Afghanistan and more have materialize as part of a re-balancing of the global made it abundantly clear that it cannot simply Sino-American relationship – that is to say, in the walk away from the Middle East. This is what absence of other, more dramatic events. China wants: an America that is strongly engaged in the Middle East, that protects regional stability C. The Entry and Growing Presence of in general, the Gulf oil fields in particular, and China and India in the Middle East the free flow of oil to Asia on top of everything, Although much less talked about than the global and an America that keeps a lower profile in Asia shift of power from West to East, the entry and because its means are limited. “Killing two birds growing presence of China with one stone” may not be a Chinese proverb, and India in the Middle The entry and but it is certainly a major Chinese policy goal. East will have major and growing Despite the recent rise in tensions between China implications for Israel and presence of and its neighbors (including U.S. ally Japan) over the Jewish people. China and territorial disputes in the South and East China Energy is the dominant India in the Seas, it remains unlikely that China and the United factor that has drawn Middle East States would engage in a direct confrontation China and India into will have major in East Asia – this is clearly not in the interest of the Middle East and implications for either power. Facing a perceived American threat complicated some of the Israel and the – and a “China containment” policy is seen as world’s main geopolitical Jewish people a threat – China will likely react indirectly, in equations. More than other parts of the world, including in the Middle 70% of China and India’s East. This is where China’s Iran policy enters the oil and gas come from Middle Eastern and other picture. Contrary to widespread commentary, Muslim countries, and it will rise to 80% or more. China supports Iran in the United Nations and Conversely, most Middle Eastern oil and gas flows through trade and investments, not only because to Asia, not to Europe, and the United States. In it needs Iranian oil, but also because it regards Iran fifty years, the trade flow between the Middle East as America’s 'Achilles heel', a pressure point, and and Asia – mostly, but not only China and India – wants to keep its hand near this heel. Seriously has risen from little more than zero to more than threatened by Iran, Israel has become 'collateral a trillion dollars. Substantial investment flows are damage' of this policy. China bears Israel no ill accompanying this trade, and nine million Asian will, but unconvinced by Israeli and Western workers – more than four million Indians and more assessments of the urgency and magnitude of than one million Chinese – live and work in Middle the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program, it will Eastern countries, particularly in the Gulf states. This

the jewish people policy institute 93 is creating enormous dependencies the world has relations with the United States, but also with not known before. all other players, Russia, Iran, Turkey, the Arab The traditional wisdom that China and India countries and, of course, Israel. depend on Middle Eastern oil ignores the flip-side China used the opportunity of parallel visits by the of the equation. The truth is that more and more, Israeli prime minister and Palestinian Authority Muslim energy exporters depend on Asia. They have President Abbas to China in early May to signal nowhere else to go if they want a safe long-term its interest in becoming more involved in the market and big power protectors who will ask for region, including offering, for the first time, to no political pay-backs, such as respect for human organize a meeting between the two visiting rights. Indeed, China and India will increasingly leaders if they so wished. The Chinese made sure begin to exert power in not to offend traditional sensitivities, meeting with the Middle East beyond Abbas first and indirectly criticizing Israel's alleged energy and trade. In involvement in an attack in Syria, but observers China and twenty years it is possible have noted potential behind-the-scenes progress India have and even likely that and possible future dividends in trade relations recently shown Beijing’s and New Delhi’s between Israel and China following Netanyahu's interest in word will weigh more visit. One Chinese observer commented that while Israel's gas heavily in Cairo, Jeddah, China wanted to increase its cooperation with finds Damascus and Ramallah Israel, it wanted to do so "quietly." than will Europe’s. A crucial question D. The Global Energy Revolution is whether and how The global energy landscape is changing. Until Chinese and Indian recently there were few long-term alternatives to power will compete Middle Eastern oil. Technological breakthroughs and perhaps clash with other major powers in the of the last few years are making all the difference. Middle East, particularly the United States and New 'fracking' technologies that allow countries to Russia. Various long-term scenarios are possible, exploit enormous shale-gas sediments, advances depending on whether the current reduction of in deep-sea oil and gas exploration and recovery America's Middle East commitment and military technologies, and new, more slowly advancing oil- presence turns out to be permanent or whether replacement technologies are shaping a new energy America will again project its power into the world. America is rapidly moving away from energy Middle East in order to compete with Asia for dependence toward at least partial independence, control of the region's precious energy resources. and certainly toward complete independence Asia's entry into the Middle East will have major within the American hemisphere. Other countries consequences not only for China and India's with huge shale reserves, such as China, have barely

94 the jewish people policy institute begun to explore their potential. This is likely to Middle Eastern stability is essential for both countries, fundamentally change the dynamics of the global not only because most of their energy comes from energy market. As the U.S. and China become the region, but also because turmoil in the Arab and more energy self-sufficient, it will free up supplies Muslim world could have a contagious effect on currently consumed by the two countries (even their own Muslims populations and on their Muslim assuming continued rapid growth of China’s energy neighbor countries. In addition, both China and needs) and in turn, reduce the weight of Middle India were directly hit by the unexpected revolution Eastern energy supplies in the global equation. in Libya which left tens of thousands of Chinese and Even Israel, as Walter Russel Mead speculated in Indian workers stranded. China and India had to a July 2012 article published by "The American evacuate their nationals under precarious conditions Interest," could emerge as an El Dorado for energy – leading some in China to call for the establishment resources, owing to recent discoveries of natural The Arab Spring of military bases in the gas and of potentially immense shale oil reserves. also led China Middle East to protect Mead writes, “the energy revolution and the to pay greater Chinese interests there. change in Israel’s outlook has more geopolitical attention to implications than the Arab Spring.” Israel might The Arab Spring also Israel as be able to affect the energy equation to some led China to pay greater a reliable degree with appropriate policy making. China attention to Israel, as source of and India have both shown interest in Israel’s gas mentioned above. Israel information finds. Israel, for its part, has so far not been able to is seen as a stable island and analysis formulate a comprehensive and actionable energy in a sea of troubles, and resource policy that incorporates Israel’s long-term also as a reliable source of geopolitical needs. In addition, it is time for Israel information and analysis to pay much greater attention to energy sciences on developments in the Arab world. In recent and technologies and perhaps create centers of months, China’s attitude toward Israel appears excellence in these fields through international to be more cautious, though it is too early to cooperation. Israel’s science and technology are say whether this diplomatic reluctance will last. impressive in many fields and highly regarded by China’s approach to Israel and the Middle East China and India. remains very pragmatic and is based on interests. China’s objection to international action against E. The Arab Spring and Turmoil the Assad regime in Syria and the continuing low in the Middle East levels of popularity China enjoys on the Arab street may play a role in China’s apparent caution The turmoil that broke out in 2011 in Egypt, Tunisia, regarding Israel, especially with respect to the Libya, Syria and the Gulf caught both China and Israeli-Palestinian conflict. India by surprise and left them deeply rattled.

the jewish people policy institute 95 In India, the turmoil in the Arab world has surrounded by Muslim countries with which they generated no new warm feelings for Israel. The have many political, trade, military, cultural, and Indians are deeply invested in the Gulf, but their personal links. Both are deeply concerned about understanding of the rest of the Arab world is less the Muslim issue some regard as an existential advanced than that of China. India has surprisingly challenge, although in China this is less the case. few professional Arabists, and the idea that the Both countries fear the infiltration of foreign country might benefit from Israeli knowledge terrorists, and even more the radicalization of has apparently not crossed many Indian minds their own Muslims. China’s Israel policies will not – except in the Indian defense establishment, of be greatly influenced by its Muslim minorities course. or its neighbors. But China would like to be seen Chinese and Indian as a friend of the more than 50 Muslim member states of the United Nations, particularly in the Israel's perceptions of the Arab Middle East. China has worked hard to rectify its attempted turmoil could have a relationship with Turkey following intense criticism interventions strong effect on their it suffered over Turkey's reaction to past ethnic with China respective policies toward tensions between Muslim and Chinese residents and India to Israel. Israel must be in the province of Xinjiang. This too could impose encourage a aware of this and should some caution on Chinese policies toward Israel. policy change try to influence these on the Iran perceptions. Also, the The case of India is different. Its neighbors as well question have calamitous image the as the Arab countries are no longer a determinant been to no avail Arab Middle East presents factor in India’s Israel policies. India has understood today – with the most that Muslim countries will always support Pakistan important Arab country whatever India says or does, but India’s Muslims are tottering between famine a determinant factor. Every Indian government has and civil war and Syria falling to pieces like Iraq to watch the careful balance between Hindus and and Lebanon before – is likely to reinforce Chinese Muslims on the subcontinent and avoid initiatives and Indian inclinations to hold on to Iran. Indeed, that could incite violence and bloodshed. No some Chinese experts and policy makers believe Indian political party can today afford to be seen that Iran might become the next master of the as anti-Muslim lest it pay a price during the next Middle East. elections. The Muslim factor – or better the perception of India’s political elite that all Muslims F. China’s and India’s Muslim Minorities are intractably hostile to Israel – continues to hobble India’s Israel policies. There are various ways Three to five percent of the Chinese population Israel could address this problem. is Muslim, and more than 15% of the Indian population is Muslim. Both China and India are

96 the jewish people policy institute G. Iran gained goodwill by convincing China to publicly demonstrate its support for Israel’s long-term In the last two years, Iran’s march toward nuclear prosperity and peaceful development. weapons has accelerated. Iran is important to China for various reasons already mentioned. Iran As things stand today, the possibility of an is even more important to India. It has greatly American or joint American-Israeli attack to influenced Indian civilization: art, architecture, eliminate or severely damage Iran’s nuclear music, food, and language. India's large Shiite project, and perhaps even bring the regime minority is connected to Iran and has until very down, remains the recently not been responsible for major acts of biggest concern for both terrorism. Most importantly, Iran is an essential countries. Calling on all The defamation counterweight to hostile, Sunni Pakistan and the sides to exercise restraint, of Israel and the dreaded Taliban. It is a gateway to Central Asia and Chinese policy makers Jewish people the nearest source of energy. The last two years remain fairly confident is also seeping have made it clear that no amount of American that such an attack will into Asia. cajoling will compel the two countries to break not take place. Privately, India is more with Iran or accept more severe sanctions against Chinese and Indian policy affected than it. India’s tepid response to an Iranian terror attack experts and advisers China in 2012 in the center of New Delhi, aimed at killing have reassured that their an Israeli diplomat, should have opened many countries would take no eyes. Iran had employed a local Indian Shia Muslim action against Israel in the in the preparations for the attack, but India raised event of an attack against little public protest, and a few months later the Iran. Indian prime minister visited Teheran for the Non- Aligned Movement Summit and embraced the H. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Iranian president. At worst, this conflict is an annoyance for non- Israel’s interventions with China and India to Muslim Asia, not an emotional issue as it is in Europe, encourage a policy change on the Iran question and even less an existential one as long as the conflict have been, so far, to no avail. In the case of China does not inhibit Gulf oil supplies. But in the global they have been counterproductive. Years of arena, China and India generally support the UN Israeli and Jewish efforts to badger China with consensus, which is unfavorable to Israel, mainly for arguments irrelevant to China’s perceived national reasons of political convenience, including in India, interests have irritated the Chinese and may have to appease their Muslim minority, rather than of contributed to Israel’s Beijing embassy having real conviction. A serious Israeli initiative to restart little access to Chinese decision makers. Israel the peace process with the Palestinians would likely would have been more effective and could have stenghthen Israel's political and strategic ties with

the jewish people policy institute 97 the Chinese and Indian leaderships, and open more 3. The Way Forward: Key Policy Asian doors to Israel. As a solution to the conflict Recommendations to Advance continues to prove elusive, it is important to shape Sino-Israeli and Indo-Israeli a perception of Israel in both countries independent Ties in the Next Decade of the conflict, especially through tourism exchanges and a comprehensive cultural outreach policy. • Appoint an official responsible for initiating I. The Global De-Legitimization Campaign and coordinating Asian, primarily Chinese and its Impact on China and India and Indian, policies in the National Security The campaign to de-legitimize and defame Council of Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office. the Jewish state and • Bring to China and to India a selected group those who support it of influential Jews (former statesmen and has gathered steam officials, leading academics and businessmen) Europe is the since the 2001 Durban to open a dialogue with their Chinese and cradle of the Conference. Europe Indian counterparts, and in particular, de-legitimization is the cradle of this to discuss the possibility of advancing campaign campaign. One might cooperation in a variety of areas between have expected that the peoples and states. absence of anti-Jewish • Capitalize on China and India’s quests for traditions in Asia would greater power status along with their growing immunize the continent concerns in the face of the recent upheavals to this campaign, of the Arab Spring to initiate regular and but this is not the case. The defamation of extensive Sino-Israeli and Indo-Israeli track 1.5 Israel and the Jewish people is also seeping strategic dialogues about the wider Middle East into Asia. India, where radical intellectuals and (including Turkey and perhaps Pakistan) with communists continue to follow the ideological Chinese and Indian think tanks, policy experts, line of their comrades in the West, is more affected and former government officials. Efforts should than China. In 2012, an international meeting be undertaken to convince Israeli defense that called on India to break off all relations with companies trading with India to help fund this Israel was held at one of India’s largest universities. dialogue as a long-term investment. Some prominent Indian artists have also called for an Israel boycott. Israeli and Jewish information • Invite Chinese involvement in projects outreach should address this problem directly. related to the gas fields and Israeli infrastructure (in addition to the Eilat train). Such agreements should be valued

98 the jewish people policy institute for their strategic importance (not only Chinese and Indian subgroups with decisive economic) and signed as a comprehensive or growing influence on their respective step toward upgrading relations between policy makers. Building countervailing soft the two states. In the case of India, the power among these key subgroups will be large investment committed by the Indian easier due to a growing synergy of values conglomerate Tata in Tel Aviv University’s and interests. It is not likely to bring concrete technology transfer company – the first of results in the short term in the form of a its kind by an Indian company in Israel – is a measurable improvement or expansion of model to be followed. Sino-Israeli and Indo-Israeli-Jewish links, but • Seek and mobilize links and alliances with it will create a positive environment more the Indian diaspora worldwide to have conducive to the flourishing of both bilateral the latter exert positive influence on the relationships. In Indian homeland’s Israel policy. Here, world particular, Jewish- Jewry has an important role to play. Jewish Israeli cultural communities worldwide should reach out institutes should be Jewish-Israeli to expand bilateral cooperation and identify opened in Beijing and cultural areas of common interest with key Indian local New Delhi, on the institutes diaspora communities – not only in the U.S. model of the German should be but also in the UK, Australia, Canada, South Goethe Institutes opened in Africa, and elsewhere. and French cultural Beijing and institutes overseas. New Delhi • World Jewry also has an important role to Such an institute play in engaging and advancing an inter- should offer: Hebrew faith dialogue with India’s moderate Muslim language instruction, leadership and organizations. This dialogue including intensive could pave the way for the organization of courses for Indian diplomats and businessmen, the first Jewish-Indian Muslim meeting in lectures on Jewish religion and history, seminars India and/or Israel, on the model of the past and panel discussions on Israel-related topics, Jewish-Hindu leadership summits. In parallel, Jewish and Israeli cultural events, e.g. a Jewish/ Jewish links should be forged with the Indian Israeli book fair, film or food festival, and more. political Hindu right-wing, including the BJP Also, entertainment and media, especially party, as well as other parties opposing Muslim movies and the new media, should be used to extremism and violence. reach out to Chinese and Indian youth, their • Develop a comprehensive Jewish and Israeli growing urban middle class, and their diaspora cultural outreach strategy that targets key communities worldwide.

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Part Two: Developments in the Jewish World

Fathers of the Faith? Three Decades of Patrilineal Descent 8 in American Reform Judaism

Reform Judaism – and Patrilineal Patrilineal Descent, establishing that in the Descent – are Today's American American Reform movement children of Jewish norms fathers are also presumed to be Jewish, just like children of Jewish mothers.1 The sociological Intermarriages between American Jews and non- results of the Patrilineal Descent decision upon Jews increased dramatically in the late 1960s and American Jewry over the past 30 years are deeply 1970s. Although intermarriage rates increased important to contemporary Jewish life, and are the for both men and women, Jewish men continued main focus of this chapter. to be much more likely than Jewish women to The 1983 Patrilineal Descent decision was marry a non-Jew. Those intermarried couples extremely important, affecting all of American who affiliated Jewishly tended to join Reform Judaism, because Reform Judaism has become congregations, but many were discouraged from the American Jewish 'default' mode. In contrast affiliation because they assumed their children to Israel and most Diaspora Jewish communities, would not be considered Jewish. According to the where Progressive or Reform Judaism are minority matrilineal principle of Jewish descent that guided movements, today more American Jews consider Jewish law from Mishnaic authorities onward, themselves to be Reform Jews (more than 35% only the children of Jewish mothers are born with of American Jewish families) than any other Jewish status. Children of Jewish mothers were stream.2 In the middle years of the 20th century, considered to be Jews regardless of their father's Conservative Judaism was the default mode religion, but children of intermarried Jewish men of American Jewish affiliation, because were not considered Jews unless their born-non- Conservative congregations seemed to offer the Jewish mothers converted into Judaism. This most normative and the least problematic style matrilineal standard was officially changed when of American Judaism. Orthodox affiliation was the Reform movement’s Central Conference of and today is still the default mode in most other Reform Rabbis (CCAR) voted in 1983 for Jewish English-speaking countries and in Israel today.

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 103 Regardless of their personal religiosity, Jews in as a method of building good character and not Israel, European, and Latin American communities as an end in itself; its comfort with the scientific who attend a synagogue are most likely to find study of Jewish texts, history, religion and culture themselves in an Orthodox synagogue, while Jews – and its frequent discomfort with concepts preferring liberal interpretations of Judaism must of 'chosenness' and 'peoplehood' – make the seek out less numerous Progressive or Liberal or movement ideologically comfortable. Reform synagogues. On a practical, demographic level, the Reform The pre-eminence of Reform Judaism in movement has grown because large and diverse America today can be subsets of Jews and their families believe Reform understood both on Judaism will accept them as they are, including practical and ideological those with limited Judaic knowledge and/or Many grounds. American uncertain religious backgrounds. They perceive Americans Reform Judaism enjoys Reform Judaism as less likely than Conservative or assume they numerical prominence Orthodox Judaism to make them feel unwelcome. can define their because it is widely Additionally, it should be noted that many own ethnic understood to be the Americans call themselves “Reform” Jews but and religious most inclusive, practically are not actually affiliated with any congregation. 3 identities and ideologically, of the Reform Judaism is the generic liberal movement large American Jewish in the popular American Jewish imagination, religious movements, which makes Reform religious pronouncements – welcoming all types including the Patrilineal Descent decision – critical of Jewish households, to the future of American Judaism. including interfaith, homosexual, and other In addition to factors specific to American Reform households that differ from historical Jewish Judaism, the Patrilineal Descent decision and its norms. Ideologically, the Reform movement has aftermath must be framed within the broader grown because it embraces a 'map of meaning' American context, in which ethnoreligious identity that is comfortable to most American Jews, is voluntary and flexible and many Americans incorporating the major tenets of American assume they can define their own ethnic and liberalism. The Reform movement’s celebration of religious identities. Until relatively recently – and free choice as a Judaic concept; its articulation of still in many places around the world – individuals a Judaic 'mission' of universalistic ethicism, often have been born into ethnoreligious societies and called 'tikkun olam,' rather than particularistic become identified with and defined by those pieties; its commitment to the 'Judeo-Christian' groups. In 21st century America, however, large social and intellectual heritage and to interfaith segments of the population are freer than ever dialogue; its assumption that religion is justified before to "invent" themselves as individuals. Within

104 the jewish people policy institute the broad spectrum of "white" Americans–which Reform movement, intermixing halakhic some observers have suggested may now include discussions with socio-historical interpretations well-educated Hispanic and Asian Americans as and explanations, while the Responsa delves well as Americans of "ethnic" European origins more deeply into changing halakhic and historical (Greek, Italian, Jewish) – individuals can choose attitudes toward the establishment of Jewish to identify with one or another ethnic group status. The Report of the Committee on Patrilineal or religion, or can create hybrid new models Descent defines mixed marriage "as a union combining aspects of two or more traditions.4 As between a Jew and a non-Jew" and clarifies that the increasingly complicated U.S. Census form answers resolution deals "only with illustrate, Americans feel free to select hybrid the Jewish identity of heritages for themselves and their families. Selecting children in which one The concept of personalized options further extends a sociological parent is Jewish and the paternity as the "pattern of mixing" that has long been one of the other parent is non- determining defining characteristics of American life.5 Many Jewish." The Resolution's factor in Jews, like other white Americans, can and do feel concluding paragraphs progeny being comfortable viewing their ethnoreligious identities stipulate: considered as as porous and fluid, changing in emphasis over having Jewish The Central descent is a time. The Patrilineal Descent decision took place Conference of within this context, in which many Americans constant in the American Rabbis Hebrew Bible regard the definition of their own ethnoreligious declares that the identity to be among their personal freedoms and child of one Jewish entitlements. parent is under the presumption of Jewish descent. This Deciding Fathers as well as presumption of the Jewish status of Mothers Can Determine Jewish the offspring of any mixed marriage is Identity to be established through appropriate and timely public and formal acts of Two contemporaneous documents produced by identification with the Jewish faith and the Reform movement spell out the rationales people. The performance of these mitzvot and the rules of the 1983 resolution: The Report serves to commit those who participate of the Committee on Patrilineal Descent, adopted in them, both parent and child, to Jewish 6 on March 15, 1983, and a CCAR Responsa on life. Patrilineal and Matrilineal Descent (#38),7 released Depending on circumstances, mitzvot October, 1983. The Committee's Report focuses leading toward a positive and exclusive on the the sociological crises facing the American Jewish identity will include entry into

the jewish people policy institute 105 the covenant, acquisition of a Hebrw of an Israelite who marries a Kohenet is an Israelite" name, Torah study, Bar/Bat Mitzvah, and the Talmudic precept, "the most important and Kabbalat Torah (Confirmation). For parental responsibility to teach Torah rested with those beyond childhood claiming Jewish the father (Kiddushin 29a; df. Shulchan Aruch, identity, other public acts or declarations Yoredeah 245.1)." Only in the case where "the may be added or substituted after marriage was considered not to be licit, the child consultation with their rabbi.8 of that marriage followed the status of the mother The Patrilineal Descent decision is sometimes (Mishna Kiddushin 3.12, havalad kemotah)." The characterized as a rabbinic and administrative Report offers a sociological interpretation of the response to existing facts: In other words, large reason for matrilineal descent in illicit unions: numbers of American "the woman with her child had no recourse but to 9 Reform Jewish men were return to her own people." The ceremony marrying non-Jewish Pointing out that "since Emancipation, Jews have of Confirmation women who did not faced the problem of mixed marriage and the at the end of convert into Judaism, and status of the offspring of mixed marriage," the the school if the movement wished Committee on Patrilineal Descent brought forward course shall these couples and their precepts suggested in a 1947 proposal of the CCAR be considered families to become part of Committee on Mixed Marriage and Intermarriage: in lieu of a their constituencies, they With regard to infants, the declaration conversion needed to adapt these of the parents to raise them as Jews shall ceremony new Reform definitions be deemed sufficient for conversion.... of who is a Jew. The reality Children of religious school age should is more complex. The likewise not be required to undergo concept of paternity as the a special ceremony of conversion but determining factor in progeny being considered as should receive instruction as regular having Jewish descent is a constant in the Hebrew students in the school. The ceremony of Bible, as the authors of the report elaborated: Confirmation at the end of the school "both the Biblical and the Rabbinical traditions course shall be considered in lieu of a take for granted that ordinarily the paternal line conversion ceremony. is decisive in the tracing of descent within the Jewish people." Numerous examples in the Hebrew The Committee then cites the 1961 edition of the Bible determine a child's status by the father's Reform rabbi's manual, which stated that Reform tribe. The Report further asserts, "in the Rabbinic Judaism accepts the child of a Jewish father and tradition, this tradition remains in force," citing as a non-Jewish mother "as Jewish without a formal prooftexts examples of Priestly status – "the child conversion, if he attends a Jewish school and follows

106 the jewish people policy institute a course of studies leading to Confirmation." Within the Reform movement, many influential Assuming that "It can no longer be assumed a leaders agreed with Schindler "that it was in their priori... that the child of a Jewish mother will be interest to accept the children of Jewish fathers and Jewish any more than the child of a non-Jewish gentile mothers as Jewish, that this was a logical mother will not be," the Committee concluded and legitimate religious policy to adopt," according "that the same requirements must be applied to to Reform historian Dana Evan Kaplan.11 establish the status of a child of a mixed marriage, The Patrilineal Descent decision was in many ways regardless of whether the mother or the father is a logical response to changing American mores Jewish." in the 1970s and 1980s. While marriage within This CCAR decision was not a dramatic break one's own ethnoreligious group had once been with earlier Reform thinking – as the 1983 normative for American decision points out in citing the 1947 and Christians and Jews, rates Liberal 1961 documents. It was the logical outgrowth of American interfaith American Jews of post World War II Reform approaches and and interracial marriages are convinved ratified decades of earlier statements, as one of were climbing. Pluralism that if Jewish its most influential advocates, Rabbi Alexander and multiculturalism were institutions Schindler, emphasized in his statements at a buzzwords, especially would only lower 1984 Reform Biennial and his 1986 talk before a among the highly educated their barriers, CLAL Conference on Jewish Unity. Focusing on affluent socio-economic the number egalitarianism as a primary motivation, "the full American environments of Jews would equality of men and women in religious life," most Jews inhabited. More increase rather Schindler emotionally supported the way in non-Jews found Jews to than decrease which Patrilineal Descent brought the children of be attractive marriage Jewish fathers into the fold: partners, but fewer non- It is high time that we say to them: By Jews marrying Jews were willing to convert into God, you are Jews. You are the sons and Judaism – conversion seemed unnecessary; why daughters of a Jewish parent. With the should they change who they were? Additionally, consent of both your parents, you were it seemed likely that insisting on matrilineality was reared as Jews. You have resolved to share an unwise policy because it seemed to be driving our fate. You are, therefore, flesh of our many potentially Jewish families away from Judaism. flesh, bone of our bone. You are in all Increasing numbers of liberal American Jews were truth what you consider yourself to be: convinced that if Jewish institutions, including Jews as worthy as any who were born synagogues, would only lower the barriers and be Jewish.10 inclusive, both Patrilineal and Matrilineal families could be part of the Jewish fold, and numbers of

the jewish people policy institute 107 Jews would increase rather than decrease. Affirming women in the divine image" – although "the decision recently the continuing positive importance of to accord Jewish status to the daughters and sons that motivation, Rabbi David Ellenson, President of of Jewish fathers and non-Jewish mothers... has not Hebrew Union College-Jewish Institute of Religion commanded the same unanimity of assent among (HUC-JIR) and a prominent historian of Jewish the members of our Conference because of concerns societies and thought, commented: "It is necessary about sundering Jewish unity, 'Kelal Yisrael'."13 for communities to engage in constituency Furthermore, in other situations some Orthodox 12 retention." authorities have voiced the concept that the Ellenson and other Reform rabbinic leaders have children of Jewish fathers and non-Jewish mothers articulated principled moral reasons for extending can be considered – if not halakhic members Jewish ancestry to the of the Jewish people – at least Jewish progeny, children of Jewish fathers. Zera Yisrael (literally, seed of Israel). Ellenson was To many, the gendered particularly moved by the halakhic discussions To many, differences in Jewish of Rabbi Haim Amsalem asserting that within the gendered law seemed not only the context of Israeli society, those non-Jewish differences inexplicable but also born wives "who identify with the Jewish people in Jewish sexist. If the children of and live as Jews" should be speedily converted by law seemed Jewish mothers could be Israeli authorities, both out of compassion to their not only considered Jewish at birth, plight and also because the presence of so many inexplicable but why not the children of non-Jews within Israeli families and communities also sexist Jewish fathers? Reminding constitutes "a state of emergency." Jewish law itself, the CCAR in 1986 that Amselem proposed, "obligates us to be as lenient as Reform Jews "refuse to possible within the parameters of Jewish law," and accept a monolithic suggests that it is "fitting to love them and bring Judaism" because "Judaism does not speak, nor has them near."14 Ellenson and like-minded Reform it ever spoken, in a single, stagnant voice," Ellenson thinkers extended these Israel-oriented concepts characterized the Patrilineal Descent decision as to Diaspora families and communities as well. motivated by "feelings of compassion and justice – Not surprisingly, if even among the Reform themselves informed by the tradition." Comparing movement some rabbis objected to the Patrilineal patralineality to "our [Reform] decision to ordain Descent decision, many Orthodox and Conservative women as rabbis and to accord women the same scholars and religious leaders had reservations. public status that had previously been reserved for Comments from all sides of the issue were gathered men [1974]," Ellenson asserted that both decisions together in a special issue of Judaism (published "represent a deeply felt religious conviction on our by the American Jewish Congress) in 1985, part" related to the belief "that God created men and "Children of Mixed Marriages, Are They Jewish: A

108 the jewish people policy institute Symposium on Patrilineal Descent," anchored by Descent–a solution or a problem?" Conservative a scholarly analysis of "The Matrilineal Principle Jewish Theological Seminary scholar Robert in Historical Perspective," by Shaye J.D. Cohen. Gordis commented, "The motives that led them Cohen demonstrated the ancient concept of Zera to take this step are self-evident," namely (1) "the Yisrael (the "seed" of a Jewish man as a foundation for vast proliferation of intermarriages in the United patrilineality) in Hebrew biblical texts and searched States and throughout the world, not excluding for evidence of how and why Jewish law began to even Israel, represents a drain of human resources rely on matrilineality rather than patrilineality for from the Jewish community which it can ill sustain, the religious identity of children. Although many particularly in view of the low birth rate in Jewish colleagues saw the matrilineal principle as being families," and (2) non-Jewish women who choose introduced in the period of Ezra (5th century B.C.E.), to marry Jewish men may Cohen argued that it was still being vigorously be assumed to be at least debated by the rabbis of the Mishnah (2nd and allies to the Jewish project. The qustion of 3rd century C.E.), and he accordingly suggested Nevertheless, Gordis Jewish descent that "the matrilineal principle is a legal innovation urged that the non-Jewish was being of the first or second century (C.E)...introduced not mother be encouraged to vigorously in response to societal need but as a consequence convert, preferably before debated by the of the influx of new ideas into rabbinic Judaism. children are born, or at rabbis of the Cohen hypothesizes that Roman matrilineality was least after their birth, as Mishnah the spur that precipitated changes within Judaism the children themselves (2nd and 3rd 15 at that time. are converted. Gordis century C.E.) Rabbi J. David Bleich, then Rosh Yeshiva at Rabbi concludes: "If she cannot Isaac Elchanan Theological Seminary of Yeshiva bring herself even to University, saw the decision as a "flagrant disregard undertake such a course of of the elemental formal ties which unite all Jews," study, or if she finds herself unable to accept and rejected it as "tantamount to renunciation of Judaism after study and an exposure to the the already tenuous ties which bind Reform Jews to content of Judaism, then 'raising the child as a Jew' 18 other members of the Jewish faith-community."16 would be meaningless in any substantive sense." Orthodox Second Temple scholar, Lawrence Rabbi Joel Roth (often a voice for conservative Schiffman, warned that the decision facilitated traditionalism within JTS) commented, "Numbers "retracing the steps of Paul and admitting gentiles to aren't everything," and warned that breaking the the synagogue," a step that would lead to American worldwide Jewish understanding that "only the Reform Jews undermining their own Jewish status offspring of Jewish females are Jewish by birth; all in ways perhaps similar to the historical Samaritans, others require conversion in order to become Karaites, and early Christians.17 Asking "Patrilineal Jewish" would disrupt the de facto ability of all

the jewish people policy institute 109 Jews to marry each other.19 Only Judith Hauptman, Gendered Changes in American professor of Talmud at JTS (she later received Reform Judaism rabbinical ordination) raised the implications for unmarried Jewish women, the potential brides of During the years that the Patrilineal Descent said outmarrying Jewish men: decision was passed and took effect in Reform congregations, intermarriage combined with "...and probably most important, the Reform women’s activism to create another adoption of the patrilineal principle perplexing new challenge – the feminization of would confer acceptability upon inter- many aspects of American Reform Judaism. To put marriage and thereby totally subvert both the Patrilineal Descent decision and Reform the goals of the laws of personal status women’s religious activism into contemporaneous as envisioned by the sociological contexts, in the late 1960s and early Mishnah....It would Judith 1970s three social movements – Second Wave reduce the pressure Hauptman Feminism, the Civil Rights Movement, and Zionism on Jewish men to seek warned: – powerfully affected American Judaism. American a Jewish mate....One The patrilineal rabbis of every persuasion, especially large numbers of the last vestiges principle would of Reform rabbis, became visible leaders in the Civil of Jewish behavior reduce the Rights movement. Ethnoreligious particularism, in families who do pressure on rather than the melting pot ideology, gave young not openly observe Jewish men Jews permission to explore those aspects of life that Jewish ritual is the to seek made Jewishness distinctive. a Jewish mate request by parents of their children not to Within the Reform movement, renewed interest in inter-marry."20 Jewish texts and rituals once considered outmoded began to percolate. This interest in things Jewish was Hauptman's comments emphasized that under the nourished by feminism and Zionism,21 among other guise of religious equality, Jewish women would factors. Feminists pressed for genuine equality in be placed in an unequal situation, by losing their Reform religious life, and demanded the abolition of competitive edge in a Jewish marriage market in distinctions between men and women in religious which American popular culture glorified what and communal leadership. The Reform movement Jerry Seinfeld once called "The Shiksa Goddess." was the first American Jewish movement to ordain Even though openly Jewish celebrities from Barbra a female rabbi: Judith Preisand, in 1972. Reform Streisand to Nathalie Portman are celebrated as highly Jewish women, many of whom had little or no attractive females, Jewish women are still frequently Jewish education, became a powerful force in the the butt of misogynistic, deprecating remarks. Jewish revitalization of adult Jewish educational venues. men often internalize such negative stereotypes and Sociologically, Reform women became the 'brokers' view Jewish women through that tinted lens.

110 the jewish people policy institute of a dynamic new involvement in Jewish rituals and Patrilineal Descent in Action in ceremonies within the Reform movement. Reform Jewish Households24 Women, long excluded by Orthodoxy from public Intermarriages – marriages between a Jew and a participation in Jewish life, and then assigned non-Jew – among younger American Jews today a passive role along with the laymen in their are about equal for men and women: Among Jews Conservative or Reform temples, helped to energize ages 25 to 49, 40% of men and 40% of women were American Judaism. However, one unintended married to non-Jews. (In contrast among those consequence of women’s activism was that Jewish over age 50, 27% of men and 19% of women were connections and activities became increasingly married to non-Jews.) Conversionary marriages – attractive to Jewish women and less attractive to in which a born non-Jew many Jewish men. Harriet and Moshe Hartman converts into Judaism and have quantified the "significant gender differences" becomes a "Jew by choice," Among Jews (NJPS 2000-01) which "remain for three factors in all to use a popular phrase – ages 25 to 49, denominations: women express stronger religious have decreased over the 40% of men and beliefs than men, stronger (tribalistic) attachment past 30 years. Looking 40% of women to Jewish people than men, and a greater tendency at marriages with only were married than men to express 'being Jewish' as being active one Jewish parent, and to non-Jews. in the current Jewish community and practices." terming an intermarriage Among those That male/female divide is especially pronounced between a Jewish man and over age 50, among Reform Jews.22 a non-Jewish woman a 27% of men and The feminization of Reform Judaism is also in Patrilineal family and an 19% of women many ways part of the process of assimilation into intermarriage between a were married to American norms. Female prominence in cultural Jewish woman and a non- non-Jews and religious realms seems “natural” on the American Jewish man a Matrilineal scene. A preponderance of female worshippers is family, this examination characteristic of many American Christian churches, of Jewish behaviors and connections draws on and popular cultural all-American imagery often two studies: (1) in-depth interviews with 254 depicts men fishing and watching football games geographically diverse informants in intermarried, while women attend to church business. In social conversionary, and inmarried households scientific theoretical discussions as well, American (2001),25 and (2) an analysis Sylvia Barack Fishman scholars have long asserted that women are conducted with Daniel Parmer26 utilizing as a more “religious” than men through essential primary statistical data set (unless otherwise cited) psychological differences or social conditioning and the last large national study conducted in the there seems to be consensus about this, at least as American Jewish community, the 2000-01 National regards American Christianity. 23 Jewish Population Survey (NJPS 2000-01).27

the jewish people policy institute 111 Even though they intermarry at equal rates, women are often deeply ambivalent about their American Jewish men and women do not behave Jewishness, and might be considered the “weak similarly in regards to Jewishness before or after link” in American Jewish life today. The Jewish intermarriage. Patrilineal families and matrilineal weaknesses of patrilineal families are apparent families are both intermarriages, but sociologically in life cycle and social network aspects as well as they are quite different from each other. Jewish religious aspects of Jewishness. Patrilineal Descent women married to non-Jewish men have typically has brought more Jewish father/non-Jewish married about three years later than Jewish women mother families into Reform congregations, but married to Jewish men; the interviews provide it has not made intermarried Jewish fathers as a the stories behind those numbers. Jewish women group more engaged by Jewishness. often described searching The Jewish ambivalence of American Jewish for years for appropriate It is far fathers who marry non-Jewish women may be one Jewish male life partners, more likely that significant reason that college students who come and eventually giving up they identify from intermarried families are far more likely to and dating primarily non- themselves as identify themselves as Jews if they have a Jewish Jewish men. Jewish men, Jews if they mother rather than a Jewish father. Linda Sax's in contrast, were much have a Jewish 2002 study of America's Jewish college freshmen more likely to articulate mother rather showed that those with Jewish mothers were more narratives in which the than a Jewish than twice as likely to identify as Jews as those religious identity of their father with Jewish fathers: of those freshmen having a romantic interests was Jewish mother and a non-Jewish father (matrilineal not of particular concern families), 38% identified as Jews. Of those having a to them. Few intermarried Jewish father and a non-Jewish mother (patrilineal Reform Jewish men families), 15% identified as Jews.28 worried about the religion of their children before those children were conceived and born – usually A 2007 Brandeis study showed that weak Jewish 29 years into their intermarriages. In contrast, many connections continue to precede intermarriage. intermarried Reform Jewish women worried about For many mixed-married couples, religious issues their children's religious identity as soon as they do not become particularly intense until their found themselves dating a non-Jewish man they first child is born. Such couples often assume liked, some blurting out to their stunned dates: that religion is not very important in their lives, "You might as well know, I'm going to raise Jewish and that their romantic feelings for each other children." can conquer their religious differences – until they face the prospect of their children being Both statistical and qualitative research show involved with ritual circumcisions or baptisms! that Reform Jewish men who marry non-Jewish Intermarried fathers in particular often exhibit

112 the jewish people policy institute little concern that their children be actively One vivid symbol of the extraordinary differences connected to Jewishness – although many are in the ways in which Reform men and women profoundly uncomfortable with the thought behave and experience Jewishness, is their widely that their children would be raised as, or consider differing commitment to the ritual circumcision themselves to be Christian. Men in Patrilineal of a male child–the Jewish brit milah (see Table 1). families are more likely to oppose what they Ritual circumcision is still virtually universal among see as "too much" Christian behavior, rather inmarried Jewish parents who affiliate with any than to support Jewish behavior. While Keren wing of American Judaism, including Reform R. McGinity suggests that male indifference parents. However, among the intermarried to Jewish cultural transmission is the result of population the picture is very different. In "the tenacity of traditional gender roles" – "the Patrilineal families, 61% of intermarried Reform presence of men at places where Jewish identity men report that their male children have not had is nurtured (at home, the community center, the a brit milah. The figures for intermarried Reform school, the synagogue) is more limited"30 – much women are dramatically opposite: in Matrilineal of the data suggest a deeper and more systemic families, 69% of women report their sons have had phenomenon. a brit milah.

TableIntermarried 1. Intermarried Jewish Jewish Parents Parents in Current in Current Wing Wing of Judaism of Judaism bybyBrit Brit Mila Milahh for MMaleale ChildChild

Yes No

21% 31% 31% 45% 61% 78%

79% 69% 69% 55% 39% 22%

Conservative Reform Just Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular Jewish/Secular

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

the jewish people policy institute 113 Intermarried Jewish men's comparative lack sense of humor." Meanwhile, an interview with of commitment to the brit milah is perhaps his lapsed Catholic wife revealed that she was surprising because popular psychological shocked he did not insist on a ritual circumcision. theories say that fathers like their sons to look Her conclusion was, "It doesn't seem like it's that like them. However, in-depth interviews with important to him. I mean I thought when we 254 geographically diverse informants (2001)31 had our son, I was thinking, oh, okay, the bris, revealed that while intermarried American that's going to be a big deal." Her conclusion was Jewish women often take upon themselves the that the child might not need Jewish education responsibility to raise Jewish children – with or either: "My vision is that neither of my kids without the cooperation of their non-Jewish will have a bar or bar mitzvah." For her Jewish husbands. In contrast, husband, a mixture of child-oriented, secularized many Jewish fathers are "Jewish culture and Christian culture all mixed Many Jewish not willing to battle with up together" are fine, with his primary concern parents view their non-Jewish wives being that the religious elements of Christianity giving their over the issue of providing not penetrate their home life: children ritual circumcisions or a Jewish "They're not hearing about Jesus Christ Jewish education for their education as or things like that. I mean it's more of sons. one of the most the Christmas and the Easter egg hunt significant For example, an and Christmas gifts and a Christmas tree expressions intermarried Jewish and Santa Claus, which I know as a Jew of their own man in the Denver it's a little hard to think my daughter is Jewish identity area described how he growing up believing in Santa Claus, but negotiated with himself she is....But we're not talking about going – but not his wife – to to church or anything like that." create a compromise It should be noted for context, that while only approach to the Brit 6% of inmarried American Jews report that they Milah for his newborn son. "You know, I don't have Christmas trees as a "cultural" symbol, 60% of know what a bris means to me or to my life or mixed married families who identify as Jewish by anything like that." Knowing his wife would not religion, have Christmas trees in their homes. (NJPS object to a medical circumcision performed by 2000-01). Intermarried Jewish fathers, like other a physician in the hospital: "Doctor Gonzales American men, place less emphasis on religion and was the doctor who I don't think was Jewish, its importance, but tolerate practices geared to but I told him he was for about 15 minutes. And children. that he was my surrogate and that I would read a prayer while he did it....I sure hope God has a

114 the jewish people policy institute Jewish Education for Children articulate a willingness to raise the children in the Jewish tradition on the condition that the Jewish Much research indicates that the future of fathers will take an active role in their education, American Jewishness is most profoundly affected an offer which is usually not accepted. by the education of children in Jewish homes. Years and intensity of formal and informal Jewish education is one of the best predictors of Jewish Creating a Jewish Calendar Year attachments in adulthood, even when all other Passover has long been a well-known ritual factors are held constant. Many Jewish parents in American popular culture. Non-Jews are view giving their children a Jewish education as frequently invited to Jewish Seders, and some one of the most significant expressions of their churches have their own own Jewish identity. In inmarried Jewish families Seders to underscore 73% of Reform affiliated with some wing of Judaism, male and the importance of the Matrilineal female parents report similarly that the vast Passover texts, themes families gave majority of their children receive Jewish education. and observances to the their children In intermarried families, however, the gender of birth of Christianity. formal Jewish the Jewish parent makes a great difference as to Among Jews, Passover is education. whether or not the child receives Jewish education. often thought of as one Among Reform NJPS 2000-01 showed that nearly three-quarters of the most cherished Patrilineal (73%) of Reform matrilineal families giving their holidays for creating families 56% children formal Jewish education. In contrast, family memories. It is not gave children among Reform Patrilineal families slightly, over half surprising that celebrating Jewish education (56%) gave children Jewish education. Passover through In patrilineal families, non-Jewish (usually participating in some sort Christian) religious education was being received of Seder meal is almost universal among inmarried by 17% of the children of Jewish men, compared to American Jewish parents, who affiliate with any 7% in Matrilineal families, and well over half of the wing of Judaism. Among intermarried Jewish children of Jewish mothers and fathers who defined parents, however, in Patrilineal families 29% of themselves as “Secular” Jews.32 The narrative Reform Jewish fathers, compared to in Matrilineal behind these statistical data is often the story of families 19% of Reform Jewish mothers said they a non-Jewish spouse who is not secular like the did not attend a Passover Seder. Among secular Jewish spouse. More often than not, a religiously intermarried Jews: 63% of “Secular” Jewish fathers motivated non-Jewish mother and a secular Jewish and 55% of “Secular” Jewish mothers married to father raise children in the mother's religious non-Jews reported no Passover Seder participation. tradition. Indeed, many non-Jewish mothers After Passover Seders, lighting Hanukkah candles

the jewish people policy institute 115 is the most frequently practiced ritual by American reversing, not surprisingly, patterns reported by and Jewish parents, so the absence of that ritual, like observed among Orthodox Jews). The differences the absence of the Passover Seder, is particularly between men and women in this regard were most meaningful in Jewish homes with children. dramatic among the intermarried population (see In intermarried households, gender trumped Tables 2 and 3): Reform and Conservative fathers denominational affiliations in reliability of married to non-Jewish women attend synagogue Hanukkah candle lighting. Lighting candles all eight services much less frequently than Reform and nights was reported in Patrilineal families by 55% Conservative mothers married to non-Jewish men. of intermarried Reform and 40% of intermarried “Never” going to a synagogue was reported by 26% Conservative Jewish fathers, compared in of inmarried Reform fathers, 22% of inmarried Matrilineal families to 72% of Reform and 79% of Reform mothers, 39% of intermarried Reform Conservative intermarried Jewish mothers. fathers and 28% of intermarried Reform mothers. Synagogue attendance is much more frequently Among the Conservative parents, only 4% of reported by Reform women than men –statistically inmarried fathers and 9% of inmarried mothers said corroborating extensive anecdotal reportage (and they never went to synagogue, compared to 43%

Table 2. Intermarried Jewish Parents in Current Wing of Judaism by Frequency of synagogue Attendance

Never Once or Twice a Year Less Than Once a Month

One or Two Times a Month Weekly or More

1% 1% 2% 5% 7% 11% 5% 22% 2% 26% 25% 2% 8% 33% 5% 21% 14% 36% 14% 18% 24% 87% 78% 10%

43% 39% 30% 28%

Conservative Reform Just Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular Jewish/Secular

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

116 THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE of intermarried fathers and 30% of intermarried very interested in increasing the level of Jewishness mothers. in the family, and are discouraged from doing There were striking gender and denominational so by their Jewishly ambivalent husbands. One differences at the high end of synagogue attendance typical interview subject complained: "Cynthia is as well: Among inmarried parents, monthly or more Jewish than I am, a factor that has annoyed weekly synagogue attendance was reported by me. I said to her, why are you getting involved 35% of Reform and 54% of Conservative fathers with all these Jewish organizations? It's annoying. and by 40% of Reform and 43% of Conservative I married a Christian who is now running around mothers. Among intermarried parents, monthly or with the Jews – and I avoid them like the plague!" weekly attendance was reported by 22% of Reform Other non-Jewish spouses sometimes regret and 9% of Conservative fathers, and 26% of Reform downplaying their own religious background and and 31% of Conservative mothers. decide to reassert themselves. As time goes on, sometimes non-Jewish mothers who have agreed to raise Jewish children, become

Table 3.Inmarried Inmarried Jewish Jewish Parents Parents in inCurrent Current Wing Wing of Judaismof Judaism by Frequencyby Frequency of ofSynagogue Synagogue Attendance Attendance

Never Once or Twice a Year Less Than Once a Month One or Two Times a Month Weekly or More

14% 9% 17% 16% 17% 20%

26% 42% 12% 22% 27% 23% 40% 7% 88% 6% 31% 18% 23% 27% 27% 31%

29% 8% 15% 16% 37% 17% 34% 1% 26% 22% 6% 13% 12% 0% 9% 5% 4% 2%

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

the jewish people policy institute 117 Families with Jewish Mothers Jewish were given by 31% of inmarried Reform Have Jewish Friends Who men and 42% of inmarried Reform women, with “Do Jewish” 22% of men and 26% of women reporting that about half their friends are Jewish. [In comparison, Social networks have repeatedly proved to be a very inmarried Conservative Jewish parents have much salient aspect of Jewish connectedness. Statistically, higher numbers of Jews among their close friends friendship networks are one of the best predictors than do inmarried Reform Jewish parents. Among of Jewish values and behaviors. Inmarried Reform inmarried Conservative Jewish parents, 57% of men and women differ somewhat at the high men and 55% of women each report having mostly end of Jewish friendship circles and much more or all Jewish friends and only one-quarter (25%) of strikingly at the low end (see Table 4). Almost men and one-third (32%) of women report “some” half of inmarried Reform men (47%) report that or “none.”] “some” or “none” of their close friends are Jewish, compared to only one-third of inmarried Reform women (32%). Reports of “mostly” Jewish or “all”

Table 4.Inmarried Inmarried Jewish Jewish Parents Parents in Currentin Current Wing Wing of Judaism of Judaism by Proportion of Jewish Friends by Proportion of Jewish Friends

None Jewish Some Jewish About Half Jewish Most/All Jewish

31% 32% 42% 57% 55% 54%

87% 22% 28% 93% 26%

18% 23% 27% 44% 40% 25% 22% 19% 11% 19% 8% 7% 0%3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0%

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

118 the jewish people policy institute Reform intermarried households report markedly The Centrality of Judaism and lower levels of Jewish friends. Family type – rather Jewish Activities than gender – seems to be the salient factor in Reform friendship circles. About two-thirds of When asked, “How important is being Jewish to intermarried Reform Jewish men (64%) and Reform you?” (see Tables 5 and 6) Reform women, both Jewish women (68%) said “some” or “none” of inmarried and intermarried, were somewhat more their close friends were Jewish. Slightly more than a likely to say their Jewishness was “very important” quarter of both men (28%) and women (26%) said than were Reform men. 42% of inmarried Reform about half of their close friends were Jewish. Only fathers and 36% of intermarried Reform fathers 8% of men and 5% of women reported mostly said it was “very important,” compared to Jewish friends. 53% of inmarried Reform mothers and 43% of intermarried Reform mothers. In comparison, inmarried Conservative Jews were much more homogenous in reporting the centrality of Jewishness: 69% of inmarried Conservative fathers

Inmarried Jewish Parents in Current Wing of Judaism Table 5. Inmarriedby Jewish Importance Parents of in Being Current Jewish Wing of Judaism by Imprtance of Being Jewish

Very Important Somewhat Important Not Very Important Not at all Important 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 8% 1% 5% 5% 3% 2% 5% 11% 29% 26% 44% 49% 48% 46%

100% 92%

69% 71% 53% 51% 42% 38%

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

the jewish people policy institute 119 Table Intermarried6. Intermarried Jewish Jewish Parents Parents in Current in Current Wing Wing of Judaism of Judaism byby Imprtance Importance of of Being Being Jewish Jewish

Very Important Somewhat Important Not Very Important Not at all Important

4%0% 1% 0% 6% 0%3% 4% 17% 16% 17% 20% 31%

41% 79% 47% 47% 58%

65%

43% 36% 30% 18% 18%

Conservative Reform Just Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular Jewish/Secular

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

and 71% of inmarried Conservative mothers Who Makes Decisions About the said being Jewish was “very important” to them. Child’s Religion? However, intermarried Conservative Jews showed the sharpest differences between men and women: In a little discussed question on the NJPS 2000- among intermarried Conservative fathers, only 18% 01 survey, parents were asked who makes the said being Jewish was “very important” to them – primary decision about their child’s religious life. compared to 65% of intermarried Conservative As might be expected, the most characteristic Jewish mothers! overall respondent reply was that “both spouses” together make these decisions. However, there were significant and highly suggestive departures from this consensus answer along gender lines (see Tables 7 and 8). In inmarried Reform families, while only 5% of fathers said they made religious decisions about their children on their own, with 83% of fathers saying both spouses made decisions

120 the jewish people policy institute together, fully one-third of inmarried Reform Rabbinical Responses mothers (33%) felt personally responsible for to Patrilineal Descent in their children’s religious decisions. These gender American Reform Judaism differences were even more pronounced – and arguably more significant – in intermarried Reform Intermarriage has been a challenging issue for families. In intermarried Patrilineal Reform families, the Reform movement. Interfaith households 30% of Jewish fathers said they made decisions comprise a growing proportion of almost every about their children’s religion on their own, with Reform congregation – and the majority in some. more than two-thirds of them (68%) saying they On one hand, the large number of interfaith and their non-Jewish wives made these decisions families that join Reform temples are flocking together. However, the answers were exactly and to instead of fleeing from engagement with the dramatically reversed in intermarried Matrilineal Jewish community, and most interfaith families Reform families. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of joining Reform congregations seem interested Reform mothers married to non-Jewish men said they made the decisions about their children’s religion by themselves. Inmarried Jewish Parents in Current Wing of Judaism TableInmarried 7. Inmarriedby Primary Jewish Jewish Decision Parents Parents Maker in in Current of Current Child's Wing ReligionWing of of Judaism Judaism byby Primary Primary Decision Decision M Makeraker of ofChild's Child's Religion Religion

Respondent Spouse Both Va r ie s Someone Else Respondent Spouse Both Va r ie s Someone Else

2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5%5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0%

6666%% 7474%% 8080%% 8383%% 8282%% 8585%% 7676%% 9595%%

1%1%

3%3%

66%% 3333%% 9%9% 8%8% 12% 2323%% 77%% 12% 1414%% 10% 10% 6% 5% 10% 2%2% 10% 6% 5% 3%3% Orthodox Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular Orthodox Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular

Jewish Mothers JewishJewish Fathers Fathers Jewish Mothers the jewish people policy institute 121 TableIntermarried 8. Intermarried Jewish Jewish Parents Parents in Currentin Current Wing Wing of Judaismof Judaism byby Primary Primary Decision Decision M Makeraker of of Child's Child's Religion Religion

Respondent Spouse Both Va r ie s Someone Else 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2% 0%

39% 33%

58% 56% 63% 68% 0% 7%

0% 0% 2% 64% 29% 54% 43% 35% 30% 13%

Conservative Reform Just Conservative Reform Just Jewish/Secular Jewish/Secular

Jewish Fathers Jewish Mothers

in maintaining Jewish connections. On the other Judaism by non-Jewish spouses (especially non- hand, only one out of four children of interfaith Jewish women), while not making those who marriages grows up to create his or her own Jewish choose not to convert, feel like second-class home. citizens. Reform rabbis, educators, and lay leaders have The requirement that children in Reform Jewish puzzled over the most appropriate strategies schools must not be simultaneously receiving to utilize in serving the interfaith segment of another form of religious training was one of the the Reform community. Some voice concern boundaries that distinguished Reform Jewish that focusing on families that include non-Jews outreach programs from unaffiliated Jewish shortchanges the inmarried or conversionary outreach programs such as those conducted by families that form their Jewish “core,” or that they some federations and Jewish Community Centers, may be unwittingly changing or distorting Judaism by outreach organizations like Jewish Outreach to so as not to alienate or disturb their non-Jewish the Intermarried (JOI), and by other independent congregants. Among the many issues they puzzle institutions. This boundary between Reform over is how to encourage formal conversion into Judaism and non-sectarian Outreach efforts, that

122 the jewish people policy institute requires that Judaism be the only religion children That was a wise and humane decision. Still, are formally schooled in, however, has not been some synagogues have been reluctant to complied with uniformly in Reform congregations, comply. In some cases, they have adopted as Rabbi Eric Yoffie noted in his forthright 2005 a “don’t ask, don’t tell,” policy. Even if a sermon at the Houston Biennial. Yoffie said: child is attending a church school, as long "It sometimes happens that when an as the parents say nothing, the synagogue identifying Jew marries an identifying says nothing. Christian, the couple will bring both There is no escaping that dual education religions into the family. They tell is harmful and unfair to the child. It also themselves that ‘if one religion is good, causes problems in the religious school, then two religions are better.’ But what where teachers are this does is cause confusion for a child, often unable to It sometimes who recognizes at a very young age that handle the conflicts happens he cannot be ‘both,’ and that he is being that arise. Experience that when an asked to choose between Mommy’s has shown that identifying religion and Daddy’s religion…some it is far better for Jew marries parents, desperate to avoid conflict with our congregations an identifying each other, insist on passing the conflict to adopt our 1995 Christian, the on to their children by asking them to policy and present it couple will decide for themselves. And they then in a sensitive way to bring both enroll their child in both a Christian all concerned. As our religions into Sunday school and a Hebrew school."33 resolution stated, our the family After explaining why he feels that the parental rabbis and educators strategy of raising children in two religions is should also meet with psychologically damaging, Yoffie went on to parents, explain the reasons for choosing explain that it is religiously damaging as well, a single religious tradition, and offer them and to urge Reform congregations to “formalize study and counseling….Let us not forget boundaries and say no.” Yoffie said: the lesson of King Solomon who – faced with two mothers claiming the same "Ten years ago, on the recommendation child – knew that the parent who refused of our Outreach Commission, the Union to cut the child in half was the one who Biennial passed a resolution encouraging loved him more."34 our congregations to enroll only those children who are not receiving formal In a focus group conversation several years ago religious education in any other religion. with principals of Reform religious schools, they were asked whether their admissions protocol

the jewish people policy institute 123 included asking parents of prospective students he urges rabbis and congregations to be more whether their children would also be receiving assertive about encouraging conversion is quoted: Christian religious instruction. Virtually to a "Another challenge that we face is the person they all confirmed that they did not ask decline in the number of non-Jewish this question, either in the admissions interview spouses who convert to Judaism. There or at any later time during the years of schooling. is much anecdotal evidence to suggest The principals themselves hypothesized that that interest in conversion has waned in many of the children they taught probably were, our congregations. In the early years of but that they would rather not know about it, Outreach, Alex Schindler often returned because knowing would raise issues that they to this topic. Alex told us: “We need to were not comfortable dealing with. ask. We must not forget to ask.” And, Yoffie’s statements for a while, our movement actively Principals of discouraging dual religious encouraged conversion. Many of our Reform religous education were featured congregations began holding public schools are in a URJ press release, but conversion ceremonies during regular avoiding asking were nevertheless not worship services. But such ceremonies are parents whether much remarked upon in far rarer now. The reason, perhaps, is that their children Jewish newspapers across by making non-Jews feel comfortable and would also the country. However, his accepted in our congregations, we have be receiving statements in the same sent the message that we do not care if Chrisitan sermon encouraging they convert. religious conversion into Judaism But that is not our message. Why? instruction were widely written up, Because it is a mitzvah to help a potential and received a lot of Jew become a Jew-by-choice. Because the attention – much of it synagogue is not a neutral institution. negative. According to first-hand observers at It is committed to building a vibrant the 2005 Biennial, a lot of whispering along with religious life for the Jewish people. a scattering of half-hearted applause greeted Because we want families to function as Yoffie’s assertions that conversion is the best form Jewish families, and while intermarried of outreach to the intermarried. Yoffie asserted families can surely do this, we recognize that many Reform congregations had been so the advantages of an intermarried family welcoming to intermarried families that they becoming a fully Jewish family, with two were actually discouraging conversion. In order to adult Jewish partners. Judaism does not convey the power and lucidity of Yoffie’s message denigrate those who find religious truth here, the complete section of the sermon in which elsewhere. Still our synagogues emphasize

124 the jewish people policy institute the grandeur of Judaism, and we joyfully soon appeared: “Conversion is not Outreach. extend membership in our covenantal Urging conversion is not an Outreach strategy.” community to all who are prepared to The non-sectarian outreach industry urged that accept it. Outreach professionals should scrupulously avoid And, by the way: Most non-Jews who giving the impression that conversion is the end- are part of synagogue life expect (Yoffie’s goal of outreach efforts. They urged laypeople and emphasis) that we will ask them to professionals alike to clean up their language so convert. They come from a background that no perceived denigration to the intermarried where asking for this kind of commitment could be intuited. Instead, engagement with is natural and normal, and they are more Jewishness, as an end in itself, is the goal. than a little perplexed when we fail to The reaction of the official Reform Outreach do so. So we need to say to the potential program35 to the much- converts in our midst: “We would love to publicized conflict over Those who have you.” And, in fact, we owe them an the prominence of believe in apology for not having said it sooner. conversion as an outreach non-sectarian Special sensitivities are required. Ask, strategy, has been mixed. outreach: The but do not pressure. Encourage, but do On one hand, Reform engagement not insist. And if someone says, “I’m not Judaism Online, the URJ with Jewishness, ready,” listen. If we pursue conversion journal that advertises as an end with a heavy hand, the result could be itself as the “world’s in itself, is to generate resentment. And, yes, there largest circulated Jewish the goal. will be those for whom conversion will magazine,” often includes "Conversion is never be an option. But none of this warm stories about how not outreach" is a reason for inaction. The time has converts love Judaic come to reverse direction by returning texts and Jewish holidays to public conversions and doing all the and life cycle events. On the other hand, Yoffie’s other things that encourage conversion comments about facilitating conversion are in our synagogues [our emphasis]." seldom mentioned. A close content analysis Yoffie’s sermon itself generated resentment. Not of the way Yoffie’s speech is presented in a only was it lukewarmly received at the Biennial, new Reform discussion and study guide, Alan it was greeted with howls of outrage by Reform Bennett’s Outreach: The Next Generation, shows congregants whose children were married to how his original message has been not very subtly non-Jews and by non-sectarian Jewish Outreach transformed. In a section entitled “Presidential movement periodicals and Internet chat rooms. Calls for Outreach,” the emphasis of Yoffie’s talk In these written formats, a new axiom or mantra has been shifted completely to celebrating the

the jewish people policy institute 125 “heroism” of non-Jewish spouses who raise Jewish particular congregation for almost a quarter- children – rather than on encouraging them to century, elaborated during his sermon on the actually become Jews: demographic reasons for his advocacy: Extending the [Schindler’s] platform in "A recent study from HUC-JIR indicates 2005, URJ President Rabbi Eric H. Yoffie that fewer than 10% of grandchildren of used the words “heroes of Jewish life” to intermarried parents identify as Jews….. describe those non-Jewish spouses who We need you to look at Jewish people are involved in synagogue activities, offer when you’re dating. There aren’t a lot of active support to the Jewish involvements us around. You’re going to have to look of spouses, learns about Jewish customs, in specific places. Number one? JDate. No attends synagogue joke. Half the weddings I’m doing now worship from time are people that met on JDate….Do we to time, and commits believe that it’s important enough that Rabbi Weber to raising children as it must go on [Judaism], that we make a offered to Jewish.36 difference in the world? That if there are personally pay An unintended no Jews in the world that the world will for six-month consequence of the be poorer than it is now? If we believe memberships Patrilineal Descent that, then we’re going to need to do some to JDate decision as a communal things about it." norm is that rabbis who While many of his congregants were very pleased articulate a preference with the sermon (and immediately emailed their for inmarriage sometimes young adult children advising them to enlist in the evoke outrage from their rabbi’s campaign for Jewish dating), others were congregants. An excellent angry and offended. As Rabbi Weber explained, example appeared recently in the Religion News those congregants heard his praise of the creation Service article, “Rabbi Gives Cupid a Nudge with of exclusively Jewish families as a denigration of JDate,” which describes a New Jersey rabbi’s intermarried families – which he emphatically Yom Kippur sermon at Temple Rodeph Torah. insists was neither in his mind nor his words. Rabbi Donald Weber reportedly “offered to He analyzed congregational discomfort with personally pay for six-month memberships to rabbinic direction by commenting that rabbis JDate, the popular Jewish online dating service, who advocate on behalf of Jewish families try to for any singles in the congregation who asked.” find a “middle ground,” but are often perceived as So far, about nine singles in the congregation “sounding like a dictator.”37 The episode illustrates have accepted the rabbi's offer and are meeting the extent to which the historical Jewish norm Jews through JDate. Weber, who had served this of endogamy (inmarriage) has been turned

126 the jewish people policy institute inside out: whereas exogamy (outmarriage, Descent environments – there is no question intermarriage) was historically considered that some children of Jewish fathers and non- transgressive and discouraged through social Jewish mothers are profoundly drawn to Jews sanctions such as ostracism or isolation. In and Judaism. These children illustrate the power America today, any expression of disapproval of and validity of the concept of Zera Yisrael. exogamy – or even a preference for endogamy Because they have been raised with the idea – is considered transgressive and deserving of that they are fully Jewish through their fathers, public and private critiques. Even rabbis who some of these offspring feel unambivalently try to promote endogamy are perceived to be Jewish. Some are involved with Judaism as a crossing the line. religious faith. Some focus on ethnicity and peoplehood, and spend significant time Conclusion: Assessing Current In America in Israel. Some love – today, any Realities and create – Jewish expression of cultural expressions. "The eventual sociological implications of disapproval Such patrilineally patrilineal descent are still unknown," Dana Evan of exogamy descended Jews Kaplan asserted in his discussion of "Patrilineal (outmarriage, often identify with Descent: The Reform Movement's Watershed intermarriage) Jewish destiny. Others Resolution of 1983" (2000). However, repeated encounters yearn for and reach studies, including the research discussed in this public critique, out for more Jewish paper makes the sociological implications clear. even if it comes connections. They are In terms of welcoming and drawing close Patrilineal from rabbis significant members families and their children, for the minority who of the Jewish do indeed draw close, the decision has been a community and should be treated as such. powerful success: The sociological impact, however, includes several • Highly identified Jewish children of areas of concern: Patrilineal families who believe themselves to be – and act as thought they are – fully • Patrilineal Descent accelerates declining enfranchised Jews enrich American Jewish numbers of mothers in Jewish families who life today. These children of Patrilineal families identify as Jews in two ways: (1) It is associated are enriching the Jewish people on many levels with lower rates of conversion into Judaism by and in many ways. Although statistically the non-Jewish wives of Jews; and (2) It is associated children of Jewish mothers are far more likely with high rates of intermarriage in which there to identify as Jews than are the children of is no advantage to marrying a Jewish woman. Jewish fathers – even in long term Patrilineal Homes with Jewish mothers are statistically

the jewish people policy institute 127 much more Jewishly active and connected than • Jewish men who marry non-Jewish women homes without Jewish mothers. This is true both – thus creating Patrilineal Jewish families – of mothers who are born Jews and mothers who are among the least Jewishly connected Jews convert into Judaism. Conversionary marriages in America today. The alienation of men and – in which a born non-Jew converts into boys from Judaism continues to be a systemic Judaism and becomes a "Jew by choice," to use problem in American Jewish societies. It a popular phrase – were, prior to the Patrilineal affects not only religious rituals and synagogue Descent decision, primarily the conversions of attendance, but also attachments to Jewish non-Jewish wives into Judaism. Many of these peoplehood, friendship circles, marriage conversions took place before the marriage, choices, caring about Jews in Israel and around so that the marriage the world. This alienation both contributes ceremony could use the to and is exacerbated by intermarriage, Nine out of ten traditional language of and is on full display in Patrilineal families: intermarried building a "true house of For example, when the 2005 Boston Jewish Jewish mothers Israel, according to the Population Study, conducted by researchers at intended to laws of Moses and Israel." the Steinhardt Institute of Brandeis University, “raise Jewish Others took place after was released in November 2007, headlines in children,” marriage, often before a Jewish newspapers across America spotlighted compared to child had a Jewish birth one finding: 60% of Boston families with one just over half of welcoming ceremony Jewish and one non-Jewish parent reported Jewish fathers or bar/bat mitzvah. The raising their children as Jews. What didn't make in Patrilineal motivation was to create the headlines from the same study was the families an "all of one kind" family. finding that in Matrilineal families nine out of By the time the Patrilineal ten intermarried Jewish mothers intended to Descent decision was passed in 1983, rates of “raise Jewish children,” compared to just over conversion by non-Jewish women were already half of Jewish fathers in Patrilineal families.38 It declining; conversions have decreased even is important to place the Patrilineal Descent more over the past 30 years. While we have no decision into the context of the profound way of knowing whether Patrilineal Descent gender imbalance currently evident in influenced this decline, it must be recognized American liberal Judaism. American Jewish that since according to Patrilineal Descent, the women are more involved with Jewishness children of Jewish men are considered Jewish than are Jewish men in almost every religious even when the mother remains a non-Jew, and secular-ethnic sphere. As this essay has there is in a sense no reason for her to convert discussed and research details39, Jewish men formally into Judaism. who marry non-Jewish women are statistically

128 the jewish people policy institute strikingly less Jewishly involved than role in the intermarriage of some Jewish men intermarried Jewish women. Homes in which also plays a role in the religious character of the only Jewish parent is a weakly connected their households. As we have noted, interview Jewish man rank among the most marginal research reveals that Jewish women who marry within American Jewry, partially because they non-Jewish men often report that they would do not include a Jewish mother. have preferred initially to marry a Jewish man. • Patrilineal descent removes the marital • Outreach efforts that focus on welcoming "market advantage" that Jewish women non-Jewish mothers in Patrilineal households previously enjoyed, further undermining often shift emphasis away from Jewish fathers the status of Jewish women. The Patrilineal and mothers. Organizations not affiliated with Descent decision has arguably had a negative any wing of American effect on the personal options of Jewish Judaism, such as women, who, as a group, still articulate a Jewish Outreach to preference for Jewish spouses. Jewish men the Intermarried (JOI) Primarily and Jewish women become "equal" as parents have focused much families with who produce children with Jewish status. A of their energy on the Jewish mothers Jewish man need not marry a Jewish woman non-Jewish mothers affiliate with if he wishes to have Jewish children. The in Patrilineal families, synagogues practical, social-psychological result has been creating JOI "Mother's and temples that Jewish men, for decades are more prone Circles" that reach today than Jewish women to intermarriage, are now out to non-Jewish more liberated than ever to do so. Meanwhile mothers raising Jewish Jewish women now have an intermarriage children. These efforts rate about equal to that of Jewish men, are highly effective in partially as a response to marriage market many ways, and have the great educational forces. While the normalization of Patrilineal advantage of helping to build social networks Descent within the Reform movement as well as Jewish cultural literacy. They created, has institutionalized inclusiveness to such for example, a series of JOI Mother's Day cards an extent that even intermarried families that celebrate that American holiday with a who avoid synagogues say they have never special "Thank you" to non-Jewish mothers been made to feel uncomfortable by Jewish raising Jewish children. The implication that worshippers, it is still primarily families with non-Jewish mothers of Jewish children are Jewish mothers who affiliate with synagogues special, carries the perhaps unintended and temples today. The ambivalence toward message that Jewish mothers are less special. Jews and Judaism that presumably plays some Moreover, this focus has two limitations:

the jewish people policy institute 129 (1) It does not address Jewish male ambivalence communities that are strongly tied to Israel, such toward Jews and Judaism. Because they are as South African Jewry, feel deeply affected by aimed primarily at non-Jewish mothers and (and vulnerable to) the knowledge that Israeli do not also deal with the ambivalence (and religious authorities do not accept patrilineally sometimes outright antipathy) of Jewish Jewish children as Jews, according to journalist fathers in Patrilineal families, "Mother's Circles" Sue Fishkoff. For these and other reasons, and efforts like them can Patrilineal Descent is "not catching on in Reform Significantly, only go so far in bringing Judaism worldwide."40 Thus, Patrilineal Descent Progressive, Patrilineal families is a factor in the current prominence of Reform Liberal, or closer to Jewishness. (2) Judaism in the United States – and, conversely, Reform Celebrating and lionizing Patrilineal Descent is a wedge issue not only congregations non-Jewish mothers separating Reform Judaism from Conservative around the raising Jewish children and Orthodox Judaism but also from other world do not – and not the Jewish international Reform communities. necessarily mothers who raise Jewish follow the lead children – such efforts may, Policy Implications of American however unintentionally, Reform Judaism further undermine the The best case scenario for the children of Jewish sociological status of Patrilineal families is that they should resemble Jewish mothers. the children of two Jewish parents, coming • Patrilineal Descent isolates American Reform from households with Jewish mothers. For both Judaism from Liberal/Progressive worldwide inmarried and intermarried families, the Jewish Judaism as well as from American Orthodox success rate – regardless of parentage – is highest and Conservative Jewish communities. among children who experience rich Jewish Significantly, Progressive, Liberal, or Reform educational backgrounds, including formal Jewish congregations around the world do not education through the teen years, Jewish camping, necessarily follow the lead of American Reform and trips to Israel. Among American Jews today, Judaism that the children of Jewish fathers girls and women are more likely to have received and non-Jewish mothers are presumed to be greater Jewish education than Jewish males. For Jewish if they are being raised as Jews. Indeed, this and other reasons, as a group (of course there at an international conference of liberal Jewish are many exceptions) Jewish men who intermarry movements in San Francisco in 2011, it became often go into the marriage already apathetic apparent that non-American Reform leaders or ambivalent about their Jewishness. Men are have often resisted adopting the American much less likely than women to become pillars of Patrilineal Descent example. Diaspora Jewishness in intermarried homes.

130 the jewish people policy institute Nevertheless, there are some success stories. Some connections and activities. Gentle, welcoming Jewishly identified children of Patrilineal families encouragement of conversion may be the have weak Jewish backgrounds, but at a point most beneficial outreach strategy currently in their life journeys some encounter inspiring available to the Jewish community. Jewish interventions, such as a welcoming rabbi or 3. Thirdly, many painful situations are caused teacher, or increasingly a Birthright Israel trip. Such by the reality that Jews converted by Reform children, teens, and adult progeny of intermarriage rabbis are often not embraced within the Israeli can benefit from the same follow-through activities context. Despite the political and religious as the children of two Jews. (Yet another argument delicacy that would no doubt be required, this for creating effective follow-through programs.) paper concludes by recommending that the 1. Beyond this, we actually know little about Israeli government pursue more concerted strategies to bring boys, young men, and efforts to find ways to allow populations Jewish males in general closer to Jews, Judaism, both inside and outside of Israel who think and Jewish life. The Jewish community has of themselves as Jewish to achieve official yet to fully confront and deal with this Jewish Israeli governmental (even if not Orthodox gender imbalance. The community as a whole halakhic) recognition that they share the – not only intermarried families – is affected destiny of the Jewish people. by male disaffection. Jewish leaders and 4. Discussing historical Orthodox attitudes educators need to learn more about how to toward conversion, David Ellenson and Daniel connect American males to their Jewishness: Gordis wrote, "the parameters of the law and This paper's first policy recommendation is a its holdings are forged in the crucible of life by plea for further research into strategies for human beings who bring intense convictions connecting liberal American Jewish males – in specific historical contexts to the cases that including those in mixed married families – to come before them."41 This paper urges that in Jewishness. the specific context of America in the second 2. The second policy recommendation is to decade of the 21st century, faced with the increase an emphasis on conversion. It is very historically unusual situation of widespread unlikely that the Reform movement will wish to intermarriage and weakened male Jewish rescind the 1983 decision. Instead, Eric Yoffie's connectedness, a response of increasing 2005 plea that American Jews, especially in educational efforts for all segments of the the Reform movement, incorporate warmer population, and welcoming non-Jewish spouses encouragement of conversion as an outreach of Jews to formally become part of the Jewish strategy seems particularly appropriate people through conversion, would retain the now. Conversionary families are very positive results, and help to mitigate the areas similar to inmarried families in their Jewish of concern produced by Patrilineal Descent.

the jewish people policy institute 131 Notes in America (New Brunswick, NY: Rutgers University Press, 1998). 1. "Reform Movement's Resolution on Patrilineal 5. Paul R. Spikard, Mixed Blood: Intermarriage and Ethnic Descent," Report of the Committee on Patrilineal Identity in Twentieth-Century America (Madison: Descent, adopted on March 15, 1983. Can be University of Wisconsin Press, 1989). accessed at http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/ source/Judaism/patrilineal1.html. 6. "Reform Movement's Resolution on Patrilineal Descent," op.cit. 2. Jonathan Ament, UJC Report Series on NJPS 2000-01, American Jewish Religious Denominations, Report 10 7. Contemporary American Reform Responsa 38. (New York: United Jewish Communities, 2005), pp. Patrilineal and Matrilineal Descent (New York: Central 8-9. Conference of American Rabbis, October 1983), can be accessed at: data.ccarnet.org. 3. Jacob J. Staubb, "A Reconstructionist View on Patrilineal Decent," in Judaism 133, Vol 34, No. 1 8. "Reform Movement's Resolution on Patrilineal (Winter 1985) pp. 97-106, notes that the Federation Descent," op.cit., p. 4 of 4. of Reconstructionist Congregations and Havurot 9. Report of the Committee on Patrilineal Descent (p. (FRCH) passed a 1968 resolution and a 1979 resolution, 2 of 4). both of which declared "that the Reconstructionist Movement and its affiliated institutions will consider 10. Alexander Schindler, Remarks at the Clal Conference these children [born of a Jewish father and a non- on Jewish Unity (Princeton, NJ, March 16, 1986), in Jewish mother] if the parents have committed Aron Hirt-Manheimer, ed., The Jewish Condition: themselves to rear their children as Jews by providing Essays on Contemporary Judaism Honoring Rabbi circumcision for boys, Jewish education for boys Alexander M. Schindler (New York: UAHC Press, and girls, and if the children fulfill the requirements 1995), pp. 259-260. of bar/bat mitzvah or confirmation." Although the 11. Dana Evan Kaplan, American Reform Judaism: An American Reconstructionist Rabbinical College Introduction (New Brunswick: Rutgers University (RRC) was the first to admit women and to make the Press, 2005), p. 236. RRC a comfortable place for gay and lesbian Jews, 12. Rabbi David Ellenson, personal interview at Brandeis and has long conveyed messages of inclusiveness and University, March 14, 2013. acceptance, Reconstructionist Judaism is numerically small. 13. David Ellenson, "The Integrity of Reform WithinKelal Yisrael" (New York: Central Conference of American 4. See Mathew Frey Jacobson, Whiteness of a Different Rabbis 97th Annual Convention, ed. Elliot L. Stevens, Color: European Immigrants and the Alchemy of Race 1986) XCVI: 21-32. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998); Mary C. Waters, Ethnic Options: Choosing Identitties in America 14. David Ellenson, "The Rock from Which they were (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990); Eric Cleft," review essay of Haim Amsalem, Zera Yisrael L. Goldstein, The Price of Whiteness: Jews, Race, and (Seed of Israel) and Mekor Yisrael (Source of Israel) in American Identity (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton Jewish Review of Books (Winter 2012): 41-43. University Press, 2006); Karen Brodkin, How Jews 15. Shaye J.D. Cohen, "The Matrilineal Principle in Became White Folks & What That Says About Race Historical Perspective, in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 5-13."

132 the jewish people policy institute 16. J. David Bleich, "The Patrilineal Principle: The Crucial suggest differential socialization creates gender Concern," in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 14-19. differences, arguing: “men are assigned [by society] roles that are more instrumental than socio- 17. Lawrence H. Schiffman, "Jewish Identity and Jewish emotional and thus are less concerned with problems Descent," in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 78-84. of morality,” but women are more relational in their 18. Robert Gordis, "Patrilineal Descent–a Solution or a development and more inclined toward religiosity. Problem," in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 32-40. Research, however, shows feminization is neither 19. Joel Roth, "An Halakhic perspective on an Historical universal nor inevitable: Examining the intersection Foundation," in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 62-67. of gender and religion around the world, D. Paul Sullins (2006) uses international data revealing that in 20. Judith Haputman, "Patrilineal Descent–An religions other than Christianity–especially Judaism Examination of the Issue, in Judaism, op. cit., pp. 45-49. and Islam–men are often equally or more religious 21. Reform rabbis and laypersons began to spend more than women. Outside the United States, gendered time in Israel, and became attached to Hebrew, approaches to religion are diverse. Men, rather contemporary Israeli music, Jewish dance, and other than women, are often perceived as more religious. aspects of Israeli culture, including the Israeli secular Sullins shows, “Worldwide, there is no measure of attachment to the holidays of the Jewish calendar religiousness on which Jewish females score higher year. The formal choir began to give way to guitar- than Jewish males. Jewish men report significantly playing rabbis, in some settings, who played melodies higher rates of synagogue attendance and belief in life they had heard first in Israel. Rabbis and other Reform after death than do Jewish women; otherwise, there visitors to Israel came home with diverse Israeli kippot is no sex difference in religiousness among Jews.” D. (ritual head coverings), and some of them proceeded Paul Sullins, “Gender and Religion: Deconstructing to wear their acquisitions to Temple. Universality, Constructing Complexity,” in American Journal of Sociology 112, No. 3 (November 2006), pp. 22. Harriet Hartman and Moshe Hartman, Gender and 838-880, pp. 844, 846. American Jews: Patterns in Work, Education & Family in Contemporary Life (Waltham, MA: HBI Series on 24. Graphic figures prepared by Daniel Parmer, in Sylvia Jewish Women/ Brandeis University Press, 2009), p. Barack Fishman and Daniel Parmer, Matrilineal 138. Ascent/ Patrilineal Descent: The Growing Gender Imbalance in Contemporary Jewish Life (Waltham, 23. Scholars seem to be divided as whether this is a MA: Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies, 2008). universal phenomenon or not. “By now it is so taken for granted that women are more religious 25. Sylvia Barack Fishman, Double Or Nothing? Jewish than men that every competent quantitative study Families and Mixed Marriage (Waltham, MA.: Brandeis of religiousness routinely includes sex as a control University Press/ University Press of New England, variable,” Rodney Stark , "Physiology and Faith: 2004). This book is based on 254 in-depth interviews Addressing the "Universal" Gender Difference in with husbands and wives in four American locations: Religious Commitment", Journal for the Scientific Study New England, New Jersey, Atlanta, and Denver, from of Religion, Vol. 41, No. 3 (Sep., 2002), pp. 495-505. Stark 1999 to 2000. The initial report was published as articulates the supposedly universal assumption. Jewish and Something Else: A Study of Mixed Married While some researchers assert innate psychological Families (New York: American Jewish Committee, leanings are the basis for female religiosity, others 2001). The research was supported by the American

the jewish people policy institute 133 Jewish Committee and implemented by researchers of disaffection from Judaism and intermarriage," at Brandeis University. commented key investigator, Dr. BarrryKosmin. (Barry A. Kosmin and Ariela Keysar, American 26. Fishman and Parmer. Religious Identification Survey (ARIS), 2008 (Hartford, 27. The National Jewish Population Survey 2000-01 was CT.: Trinity College, 2008). Indeed, in the NJPS 2000- conducted by the United Jewish Communities (UJC), 01 and in earlier ARIS studies it was already apparent Lawrence Kotler-Berkowitz, et. al. 5,148 respondents that children raised in intermarried households were interviewed. See www.jewishdatabank.org for were far less likely to be “raised as Jews,” far less more information and to download the data. likely to receive Jewish education, and much more 28. Linda J. Sax, America's Jewish College Freshmen: likely than those raised in inmarried households to Current Characteristics and Recent Trends Among identify as "secular" when they reached adulthood. Students Entering College (Los Angeles: University of Both the likelihood of creating an intermarried California Higher Education Research Institute, Hillel household and the likelihood of identifying as Foundation for Jewish Campus Life, 2002), p. 227. secular increase when intermarriage becomes the family tradition (NJPS Report 2000-01: Variations 29. Leonard Saxe, Fern Chertok, Benjamin Phillips, "It's in Intermarriage, Intermarriage and Current Jewish not just who stands under the chuppah: Jewish Connections (NJPS United Jewish Communities/ identity and mixed marriage" (Waltham, MA: Jewish Federations of North America). As we have Brandeis University's Steinhardt Social Research noted, around three quarters of Jews with only one Institute, 2007). Jewish parent marry a non-Jew. About one-third of 30. Keren R. McGinity, "Gender Matters: Jewish identity, American Jewish intermarried families nationally intermarriage, and parenthood," in Contact: The say they are "raising child/ren as Jews." Among those Journal of the Steinhardt Foundation for Jewish Life 14, intermarried couples not raising children as Jews No. 2 (Winter 2012):12-13. See also McGinity's books, many report that the household has no religious Still Jewish: A History Women and Intermarriage in affiliation. Almost 60% with only one Jewish parent America (New York: NUY Press, 2009), and Strangers who were "raised as Jews" are intermarried, and in the Fold: Jewish Men, Intermarriage, and Fatherhood about 86% of those with only one Jewish parent (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2013). who were "not raised as Jews" are intermarried 31. Fishman, Double Or Nothing? 33. Sermon by Rabbi Eric Yoffie at the Houston Biennial, Houston, TX, Nov. 19, 2005, Union for Reform 32. Increasing Jewish secularism and intermarriage Judaism 68th General Assembly (http://urj.org/yoffie/ are interrelated: secular American Jews are more biennialsermon05/). likely to marry non-Jews, and intermarried Jews are more likely than in-married Jews to call themselves 34. Yoffie, Sermon 05,op. cit. "secular." According to the American Religious 35. For further discussion of this phenomenon, see Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008, which examined Sylvia Barack Fishman, “The Jewish Outreach secularism in the United States, percentages Enterprise: Rhetoric and Reality,” in Steven T. Katz of American Jews who identify as "secular," and Steven Bayme, eds., Continuity and Change "unaffiliated," or "cultural Jews who identify by (New York: University Press of America, Inc., 2011), ethnicity alone" rose from 20 percent in 1990 to pp. 105-129. 37% in 2008. "I attribute the shift to a combination

134 the jewish people policy institute 36. Alan D. Bennett, “Outreach: The Next Generation discussion and study guide,” in Reform Judaism online: Union for Reform Judaism (http:// reformjudaismmag.org/Articles; Winter 2007), p. 1 of 6. 37. Jeff Diamant, “Rabbi gives Cupid a nudge with JDate,” in USA Today, Nov. 8. 38. Leonard Saxe, et. al., Jewish Population Study of Greater Boston (Waltham, MA.: Brandeis University Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Stuies, and the Boston Combined Jewish Philanthropies, 2005). 39. Fishman and Parmer, Matrilineal Ascent/ Patrilineal Descent. 40. Sue Fishkoff, "Why is patrilineal descent not catching on in Reform worldwide?" JTA Jewish and Israeli News, San Francisco, February 15, 2011. 41. David Ellenson and Daniel Gordis, Pledges of Jewish Allegiance: Converstion, Law, and Policymaking in Nineteenth-and Twentieth-Century Orthodox Responsa (Stanford: Stanford University Press: 2012), p. 166.

the jewish people policy institute 135

Jewish Leadership in North America – 9 Changes in Personnel and Structure

Introduction overall quantity and quality of professionals and volunteers, and the ability to engage Everything the Jewish people hope to achieve young adult volunteers. Success will require an depends on the quality of the professionals and immediate program of executive development, volunteers who serve our organizations, and on and the implementation of best-practice senior leaders in particular. The ability to shape human resource management, and thoughtful the internal dynamics of the Jewish people cultivation of Jewish influentials and informal and influence the external ones relies on these leaders. individuals’ vision, passion, knowledge, skill and This paper seeks to assess the state of North influence and on the quality and vitality of our American Jewish communal leadership, institutions and communities. The continuous identify major challenges and offer policy development of high-quality leaders and human recommendations, strategies and interventions. resources is fundamental and imperative for the continued thriving of the Jewish people. • There are an estimated 9500 Jewish nonprofits in the United States.1 This paper will address Two critical questions in regard to leadership the challenge of professional leadership concern the North American Jewish community, transition in the largest and most influential with critical implications for the global Jewish organizations in a manner that Jewish people. Will it successfully replenish responds to the changing nature of Jewish life an aging senior professional leadership corps, in North America. They include large national many of whom will soon retire? And will their organizations such as American Jewish replacements possess the vision, passion, Committee and Hillel, the major seminaries and skill to reshape the American communal and Jewish religious movements, the largest infrastructure to optimally adapt to changing federations, Jewish community centers, realities? These questions are imbedded in congregations and others. larger and long-standing concerns about the

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 137 • It will define an ideal profile for the next creation of the State of Israel when hundreds of generation of top professionals and assess the young Jews decided to dedicate their professional ability to fill those positions in the next five to lives to the Jewish community. When this reality ten years. is combined with rapid technological advances, the professionalization of the field, the increasing • It will consider volunteer leadership and assess demands on community executives and the rapidly the Jewish community’s “soft power” resources changing needs and culture of the Jewish community, – Jewish individuals active in political life, the challenges are monumental and uncharted.”2 government service, public affairs, media and academia. This concern was also articulated in a 2012 proposal by Larry Moses, president emeritus of the Wexner • It will suggest a systemic framework for how Foundation, for a national Center for Executive the North American Development.3 A Jewish Communal Service Jewish community can Association study found an overwhelming lack of manage its long-term succession planning by Jewish organizations. The The 2008 professional leadership great majority of interviewees shared the concern.4 economic needs. crisis likely The 2008 economic crisis likely slowed the pace The paper draws on Jewish slowed of retirements. However, the issue is imbedded and general nonprofit the pace in a wider professional leadership challenge research literature and of retirements facing American nonprofits. A widely cited 2006 written and telephone Bridgespan study estimated that by 2016, the interviews with a diverse nonprofit sector (10.1% of the U. S. workforce) would group of 34 individuals need to produce 80,000 new senior managers per active in Jewish affairs. year, 2.4 times the current demand.5 Other studies sound the alarm.6 22.5% of nonprofit CEOs are age The Leadership Cliff 60 or older and 36% of them expect to stay on the job less than three years.7 Although the average U.S. In a 2009 Jewish Funders Network report, retirement age has risen to 67, more than 50% of researchers Michael Austin and Tracey Salkowitz current CEOs expect to retire by age 65.8 warned, “The National Jewish community appears to be on the edge of a precipice. Within the next Moreover, the Chronicle of Philanthropy reported five to ten years, the baby boomers will retire and that half of chief fundraisers plan to leave their leave upwards of 75-90% of Jewish community jobs within two years. 40% contemplate leaving agencies with the challenge of finding new executive fundraising entirely.9 The paucity of skilled leadership. The field of Jewish communal service fundraisers is exacerbated by an average six-month is vastly different today from the post-Holocaust vacancy period. With the growing expectation

138 the jewish people policy institute that CEOs possess strong fundraising skills, chief mergers, sunsetting organizations, redefining the development officers are logical candidates for mission of others, creating new institutions and succession to the executive suite. overall programmatic innovation. Nonetheless, Additionally, many senior executives (non-CEOs) even as change occurs, for the foreseeable future in larger Jewish organizations are also approaching it is likely that the largest, most complicated, best- retirement and are therefore unlikely to seek or be resourced and influential organizations will still sought for the top spot.10 tend to be mainstream. Because of the changing context and concerns A Changing Context about the quality of current leaders, many may welcome large-scale executive transition despite Leading large complex organizations, which the accompanying costs are dependent on philanthropy and sustained and disruptions. The board support, demands numerous advanced Rabbi Mark rapid pace of change may skills. However, those who will assume the top Charendoff: challenge the long-valued professional positions also face a Jewish and Executive goal of executive stability. general context far different from that which turnover Rabbi Mark Charendoff, welcomed their predecessors. The trends and should be on stepping down as factors are well documented. They include the full encouraged, president of the Jewish integration of Jews in general American society; positing a Funders Network, wrote Israel’s strength and complex relationship with the target tenure that executive turnover U.S.; dramatic changes in demography, sociology, of 8-10 years should be encouraged, and patterns of identity and affiliation; changes on average positing a target tenure of in the philanthropic marketplace; declining 8-10 years on average.11 confidence in nonprofits; shifting attitudes and priorities toward Israel, Jewish security, social The next CEOs will have services, and Jewish identity; and the rapidly to straddle a difficult line. They will need to changing, globalized, technology-dependent understand and master the existing context while world. Many of these trends represent long-term simultaneously responding to, envisioning and challenges to the vitality of the North American leading institutional change. There will be many Jewish community, and in turn, of world Jewry. obstacles. The need for change is not universally Some afford new opportunities. accepted. Volunteers, donors, and staff may defend current power and resource allocation. Executive There is ongoing speculation about the power is limited by volunteer governance. Day-to- relevance and sustainability of the current Jewish day pressures will crowd out time and resources organizational network. There are frequent calls for working on change, which is usually slow and for and some progress in re-structuring including process heavy.

the jewish people policy institute 139 The Desired Professional Profile The majority of interviewees do not believe there is one best trajectory to the CEO's office, and There are at least two ways to define the desired advocate openness to multiple pathways. Yet, professional profile. One starts from an analysis of although each job requires a unique combination the role, organizational needs and environmental of qualifications, the interviews and management context, and then specifies the knowledge, literature point to the following ideal criteria for competencies, experience, values and personal the next CEOs. In general the criteria also apply to attributes required to succeed. A second approach rabbis: is defined by the expectations and perspectives • A desire and ability to lead, built around a of those doing the hiring. Regrettably, these two forward-looking vision, passion, personal approaches do not always empowerment, courage, perseverance, align. Selection criteria are interpersonal and communications skills affected by generational and the ability to inspire others. This must Selection differences, gender, and be coupled with humility. Changing cultural criteria are religious perspective. expectations and the reality that many affected by They are frequently challenges are adaptive, call for greater generational reactive to assessments use of servant, distributed and shared differences, of the incumbent. Areas leadership models. The next CEOs must gender, and of tension include those maintain a careful balance between being religious who believe extensive strong, empowered leaders on one hand, and perspective experience in the field collaborative, empowering leaders on the is critical versus those other. who seek non-traditional candidates with fresh • A personally meaningful Jewish life and perspectives and skills; those who see business, commitment to Jewish values, Jewish management and fundraising skills as supreme peoplehood and Israel’s security. and those who seek Jewish literacy and vision for • Jewish knowledge including of the the Jewish people. Younger volunteers, particularly demographics, sociology and operation of entrepreneurs, will likely reject the profile of the North American Jewish community, retiring CEOs and the perspective of older contemporary knowledge of Israel, world volunteers, perceiving them as agents of the status Jewry and the global Jewish agenda. Literacy quo. These tensions call for careful attention to in Jewish religious thought, classic texts, and the composition and process of executive search the Hebrew language – along with cross- committees. Special attention must be given to the cultural competence to relate to Israeli and voices of younger, next-generation volunteers if the global Jewish leaders are highly desirable. capacity for institutional change is to be fostered.

140 the jewish people policy institute • Respect for the variety of Jewish expression Quality of the Pipeline and support for pluralistic policy. Individuals in their 40s, able to understand, communicate, The notion of pipeline implies high-quality middle motivate and build relationships with diverse managers, working their way to the top, with the constituencies in their 20s to 40s. requisite training, experience and qualifications to ultimately enter the executive suite. Most believe • Collaborative boundary spanners, who will the pipeline is weak. Austin & Salkowitz found emphasize broad concerns and community that although about 25% of current CEOs could building rather than institutional preservation. identify “up and coming stars,” the vast majority • Willingness and skill in fundraising and long- don’t know where their successors will come term donor cultivation and stewardship. from.12 This impacts the • Strategic management skills, with particular immediate question of emphasis on financial and human resource executive succession, as well as concerns about the management, change management and board The vast overall quality of the Jewish governance. majority of professional workforce. CEOs don’t • Nuanced understanding and skill in managing Exceptions of greater know where lay-professional relations, which includes confidence were noted in their successors respect for the imperative of volunteer New York City, within the will come from governance and commitment to empower Orthodox community, effective boards. and in the ability to fill top • Skill and commitment to develop and positions in Jewish public empower high-quality, collaborative teams, affairs. Nonetheless, most with attention to preparing their own individuals interviewed successors. could identify several “rising stars.” Most possess • Flexibility, adaptability, creativity, and a spirit advanced educational degrees and a long record of of innovation and entrepreneurship. Openness Jewish engagement. Several were interviewed. They to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary generally expressed self-confidence and readiness, thinking. though some noted ambivalent desire. Of course, no one candidate will possess all these Many believe the concept of a pipeline is qualities. Essentials include Jewish vision, passion antiquated, unrealistic and only reinforces the and energy; interpersonal, team building and status quo. They believe the Jewish community fundraising skills; and the ability to master lay- must cast a wider net, looking at high-quality professional relations. individuals with Jewish knowledge and passion from other nonprofit and public sector settings,

the jewish people policy institute 141 noting business and law in particular. All have minimal subject-matter expertise, do acknowledge that these individuals face barriers to not value, respect or recognize professional entry, will require training, mentoring and coaching training, experience and achievements. and will face serious adjustments to the realities • Resentment and frustration over instances of and demands of Jewish organizational life, most volunteer micro-management. particularly the lay-professional relationship. Most see the transition from committed layperson to • Resentment over low pay and long hours professional as the hardest and most likely to fail. and the belief that volunteers legitimate this because of their commitment to mission. The quality of lay-professional relations (parti- cularly the presumed “partnership” between chief • Expectations that professionals must cater volunteer and professional and defer to unrealistic volunteer demands or officers) is a critical factor demeaning behavior. in Jewish organizational • Limited tolerance for professional errors The quality of success. Yet the reality accompanied by limited volunteer lay-professional and/or perception of accountability. relations is a dysfunction is widespread. The extent of the reality or perception of these critical factor Most complaints emanate factors is variable, but they are present to a certain in Jewish from professionals, many degree in almost all Jewish organizations. However, organizational of whom describe the this is rarely discussed openly or constructively. success environment as toxic. Recent studies find strong motivation among The inherent power young people to enter mission-oriented differential and professions. Sometimes disillusioned with business common socio-economic differential between or diminished opportunities in law, combined with volunteers and employees can be expected to a commitment to social justice, the 2008 “Ready to yield tension. However, a number of frequently Lead” study of nearly 6000 young people exposed present factors can exacerbate the situation. to the nonprofit world found that 32% aspire to be These include: a nonprofit CEO, and 47% say their ideal job is in • Perception among volunteers that the nonprofit sector.13 professionals undermine their role and In the Jewish world, some young people have authority, preferring to use boards as “rubber entered the entrepreneurial innovation sector, stamps” and/or valuing volunteers solely for starting organizations addressing Jewish education, their giving potential. identity, art, culture, public affairs or communal • Resentment and perception among change. They display many of the characteristics professionals that volunteers, who frequently defined in the ideal profile and are a potential, long

142 the jewish people policy institute range, though possibly overlooked talent pool. Factors affecting supply However, they will need to be nurtured and will Though demographic factors such as the smaller demand significant adjustments in the nature of the post-baby boom population cohort play a role, lay-professional partnership and work-life balance if factors primarily relate to changing Jewish identity they are to take mainstream organization roles. and affiliation and overall weak human resource practices. Contributing Factors The Jewish nonprofit environment is widely seen The leadership cliff results from numerous factors as less than optimal and frequently described as relating to demand and supply. Research has toxic to professional recruitment, development, given us a vivid picture of personnel issues within retention and career. the Jewish community.14 Additional insights are Factors identified in the extrapolated from general research on the subject. literature and anecdotally include: 40% of Factors affecting demand • Jobs are harder. Most CEOs fail in the Despite the economic crisis, the nonprofit sector senior professionals first 18 continues to expand in number and size.15 A similar report that factors months dynamic likely exists in the Jewish community, including communal with the exception of the rabbinate where demand changes, increasing may be shrinking.16 Growth may come from small fundraising pressure entrepreneurial start-ups and the foundation and competition, sector. Larger organizations require more senior increasingly complex executives, who might otherwise serve as CEOs issues, organizations and regulation, and in smaller organizations. Even if the number challenging or toxic lay-professional relations of organizations holds constant, the successor are increasing stress and frustration. generation to the baby boom CEOs is numerically • Poor screening and hiring practices. smaller. • Unrealistic workloads and performance CEO tenures in the corporate world are decreasing expectations. from an average of 9.5 years to 7.6 years. Poor • Low tolerance for failure. performance creates demand as 40% of CEOs fail in the first 18 months.17 30% of nonprofit CEOs are • Limited, inadequate or unsupportive fired or forced to resign.18 Younger, entrepreneurial supervision. lay leaders often express concern about the skill • Limited quality and quantity of in-service sets of current-generation CEOs. Stories abound training. about forced separations.

the jewish people policy institute 143 • Lack of career development support. prepared to relocate for opportunity. Canadian • Lack of recognition and respect. communities find it difficult to recruit American candidates. Those working in small and mid- • Insufficient compensation in early career size communities and unable to move, find few stages. opportunities for advancement (or fear reprisal if • Limited maternity leave, flex time, job sharing they look) and seek career advancement in non- and other strategies to accommodate working Jewish settings. parents and enhance the work-life balance. Schools of social work and Jewish communal • Disincentives and barriers to women’s career service are producing only a small number of advancement. professionals.20 High-cost, long-term, professional development programs have received mixed • Perception among many young people reviews. Professional organizations are weak and that mainstream Jewish most in-service training is of the one-day nature, organizations resist generally under-resourced and of mixed quality. Decreased change, focus only mobility is due on fundraising, and to the fact that are technologically Impact of Jewish identity in dual-earner unsophisticated. With reduced levels of affiliation and loyalty to families fewer These push factors traditional institutions, interfaith marriage, and employees are growing discomfort with Israeli policies, it is less prepared to diminish the attractiveness of professional careers likely that young Jews will proactively seek a career relocate for in a Jewish organization. opportunity and are reinforced by pull forces. For example, Yet there is also evidence of significant interest competent fundraisers among young Jews in developing new programs often find they can earn and organizations related to Jewish education, more in other settings, social justice, religious life, public affairs and with less stress. Young women often exit within community. Many interviewees point to the two to three years when they marry or begin innovation sector as a place filled with passion families. Push factors are salient to the millennial and talent, and a potential source of future top generation, who expect to change jobs frequently, leaders. However, these talented, motivated have little patience for pipeline advancement and young Jews generally do not wish to work in do not contemplate a career limited to one type of traditional organizations. And some older leaders organization.19 view them as unlikely or unsuitable candidates. A large, widely noted factor is reduced mobility. In fact one highly prominent and respected social With dual earner families, fewer employees are entrepreneur expressed great surprise that no

144 the jewish people policy institute one from a mainstream organization had reached Economic and emotional issues may lead CEOs and out to him about a possible career move. His boards to avoid facing succession. Noble (2012) experience echoed that of a current top CEO. outlines some of the complex feelings aroused by Whether or not today’s young entrepreneurs the subject: will eventually become more comfortable in • CEO’s belief that “my work isn’t done.” mainstream organizations is conjectural. What • Lack of confidence that a successor exists. does seem likely is that capitalizing on their talents will require active outreach, nurturance and • Belief among CEOs significant changes in the structure, operation, that they should leadership style and working culture of target control their own exit Few organizations. timing. organizations have The Shoah, Israel, and anti-Semitism were powerful • Lack of personal undertaken motivators for current CEOs. Changes in identity planning for next formal and attitudes raise the possibility that those phase of life. succession attracted to professional roles will increasingly be • CEOs fear becoming planning drawn from the more religiously traditional. Does lame ducks or being this potentially limit their ability to engage an forced out if they increasingly secular population? raise the subject of retirement.23 Institutional inertia There is strong evidence that current CEOs and Why have we failed to address the their boards have avoided or failed to address the coming crisis? executive cliff and the larger challenge of effective human resource management. Few organizations A decade ago, David Edell, a former Jewish have undertaken formal succession planning, professional and leading search consultant, issued either long term or emergency, despite common a call to action stating, “We know a great deal wisdom that this is a basic leadership responsibility about the personnel crisis, but have lacked the will and management best practice. Transitions are to address the problem on a system-wide scale. generally unplanned and poorly managed.21 This crisis will affect the Jewish community's ability to realize its potential. Its resolution requires the Nonprofit realities such as limited budgets, lack commitment of top volunteer and professional of associate directors and few intermediaries leadership.” He repeated his warning in July of hamper proactive succession planning and mean 2012.24 It has been echoed in the larger nonprofit nonprofits are far less likely to develop talent and world.25 hire from within. 22

the jewish people policy institute 145 There are real costs to this failure. Most are strong disincentives to use unrestricted funds Jewish organizations are already pressed to for training, coaching, sabbaticals etc. maintain perceived relevance, impact and Either out of fear of intruding on the CEO’s domain financial sustainability. Failure to secure high- or due to executive resistance, boards often have quality personnel can trigger a vicious cycle of little insight into employee matters. They often fail organizational decline. Poorly planned, avoided, or to adequately set expectations and evaluate their unforeseen executive transitions can trigger: chief executives. Even when they do, personnel • Instability and reduced impact. management is rarely a key criterion. • Exodus of key staff and poor morale. With the exception of some forward thinking • Reduced fundraising. philanthropists, professional development is not an attractive option for donors considering • Tarnished image of the professional. supplementary or planned gifts. • Excessive concentration of power in a long- serving CEO, which can also discourage An adaptive problem requiring a systemic competent employees. response • Abandonment of loyal executives after a The immediate challenge of CEO succession results lifetime of service. from and is embedded in a broader set of human Yet, despite repeated resource issues. The extent of the problem, the warnings and collective multiplicity of factors and the degree of dysfunction Only some mean that short-term technical or individual forward hand wringing, the Jewish community has not strategies such as adding training programs or thinking expanding recruitment will not be sufficient to philathropists addressed the personnel matter vigorously. make real progress. The personnel situation is an consider adaptive challenge.26 As described by management supplementary At times it has been negligent. Why? and leadership scholars such as Ron Heifetz and or planned Donald Laurie, adaptive challenges are problems gifts for Categorized as overhead, lacking readily apparent technical solutions. They professional matters of internal require new strategies that depend on changing development organizational capacity behavior, giving up old ways and obtaining the buy- and infrastructure are in and ownership of individuals across the system.27 often accorded little value and attention by governing boards. In a climate of It is an issue that transcends any one organization increasing needs, limited revenues, skeptical donors or sector. It fits the paradigm John Kania and Mark and charity watchdogs, the ratio of overhead to Kramer described as “collective impact” to address program expense is under immense scrutiny. These complex, deeply-rooted problems and large-scale

146 the jewish people policy institute systemic change efforts such as revitalization delay the savings an organization may of poor urban neighborhoods or urban realize through transition. 28 education. The personnel challenge requires long- • Retention may delay needed term, collaborative action, built around a shared organizational changes (e.g. leadership vision, by a broad coalition of institutions and style, adopting new technologies, actors. fundraising strategies). This can discourage The personnel crisis needs to be understood as younger volunteers, frustrate the career a shared responsibility of CEOs and governing aspirations of middle managers, and boards. Enlightened, responsible CEOs will alienate millennial generation employees. embrace the challenges. However, governing • Increasing reliance on long-standing boards, which possess fiduciary responsibility, must (perhaps iconic) take an ownership stake as well. They will need to leaders may adopt new policies, provide financial resources, further tip the Short-term collaborate with other organizations and clearly lay-professional technical or define human resource management expectations power equation. individual for their CEOs, holding them accountable for strategies will 29 2. Recruit aggressively performance. not be sufficient from the existing to make real pool of Jewish progress in Short-Term Strategies organizational talent. the immediate There are people who Responding to the adaptive challenge and challenge of are ready to lead. building collective action initiatives are long-term CEO succession processes. They will take time to define, mobilize Some may require and yield results. However, executive transitions coaxing to leave are ongoing and many are imminent. These must comfortable positions be treated as a priority. Several strategies can be or incentives to overcome mobility barriers. pursued independently or together. There should be greater openness to crossing organizational settings. 1. Delay transitions for top echelon CEOs. Due to the economy and emotional factors, some 3. Two strategies with similar implications are may desire to continue. However, there are a) to recruit successful leaders/managers several potential adverse implications: from non-Jewish settings, and b) to recruit baby boomers seeking an “encore career.” The • Financial costs will rise. These are generally number of transitions together with a limited highly compensated people. Retention pipeline means that, for the foreseeable future, incentives will likely be additive, and organizations will hire people with minimal

the jewish people policy institute 147 Jewish training and experience, either by design Recommendations and Best or necessity. Research from large corporations Practices for Professional Human suggests that differences in overall success rates Resources Management between internal and external candidates are not great, but that external candidates tend to The interviews and literature suggested numerous do better when organizations are in crisis and strategies to address the personnel needs of the internal candidates succeed more when the North American Jewish community. These are company is strong.30 External individuals will distilled into two major policy recommendations need to adjust to the Jewish professional’s public and a summary of best practices to be lifestyle and the impact of lay-professional implemented. relations. Lacking an 1. Design and launch an appropriately resourced, existing supportive For the national, long-term, collaborative initiative professional network, foreseeable to adopt best-practices in human resource these individuals will future, recruitment, professional development and require careful 'on- organizations retention, as well as designing organizational boarding,' executive will hire people culture, policies and practices that support coaching and supple- with minimal professional excellence. The initiative will mentary training to Jewish training conceptualize the Jewish organizational manage the transition. and experience network as a national system with shared They may struggle for and inter-dependent personnel needs. The legitimacy in the eyes of initiative must incorporate and build on a colleagues, employees and campaign of advocacy and education of lay the community at large. Some believe such leaders, donors and senior managers as to the individuals should be required to begin in a nature of the challenge and the need to address sub-executive role and/or obtain education and it. Using collective impact principles, the credentialing before being employed as CEOs. initiative will engage and define a shared vision This discussion raises interesting questions and common agenda for local, national and regarding a) how organizations broach the sen- international Jewish organizations, institutions sitive issue of succession with older CEO’s,31 of higher education, foundations, professional and b) what roles retirees can play in their own associations, for-profit search firms and organizations or others. Those with humility and others. It will promote mutually reinforcing openness to change can be an enormous resource activities and identify where new programs for ongoing teaching, consulting, mentoring, and and possibly new organizations are needed.32 coaching. Defining post-retirement options may It will define shared measures of success and ease the ability to talk about transition. engage in ongoing communication. Critical to

148 the jewish people policy institute success will be the establishment of a neutral detailed knowledge of the chosen field of service, 'backbone organization' which plays an broad knowledge of the Jewish world and a robust ongoing role as catalyst and coordinator.33 network of relationships. These assets equip the Collective impact strategies require adjustments CEO not only to lead a particular organization, but to typical modes of organizational independence also to play an instrumental role in shaping the and governance. In such inter-organizational global Jewish agenda. Corporations often achieve alliances, individual organizations may deliver this by a planned program of assessment, training, specific services or programs, but “service delivery job rotation, and growth producing assignments. is designed, organized, resourced, and coordinated” Jewish professionals can’t be managed like chess (i.e. governed) by the network of relationships pieces. However similar job rotation, including among organizational leaders involved in the experiences outside the Jewish community, collaborative effort.34 Job rotation, could enhance a future including 2. Create a multi-modal, North American center CEO’s value and improve experiences for executive development. The center would collaboration and outside develop educational curricula and strategies innovation. Professionals the Jewish for training and inspiring newly-hired CEOs and lay leaders should community, (e.g. the Harvard Graduate School of Education, value such layered could enhance one-week seminar for new university experiences and work a future CEO’s presidents), high-potential mid-career to remove barriers to value individuals, and high-potential individuals their achievement. The seeking to enter the field. It would also provide executive development systemic leadership on the issues of executive center could provide unbiased career assessment, development, succession planning, transition, planning and counseling services to candidates executive coaching and continued professional of very high potential that might incorporate development. If positioned to support the aspects of various corporate models. entire Jewish organizational network, it could assume the backbone role described above. The role of Israel Larry Moses’ thought piece for the Jim Joseph Foundation offers an intriguing set of goals An Israel experience can inspire Jewish identity and considerations for further exploration.35 and engagement. If properly leveraged, it can be a launch pad to a professional career. An Ideally, by the time one becomes the CEO of a important recruitment strategy is to build major Jewish organization, s/he will have developed exposure to professional and volunteer roles into a coherent vision for the Jewish future, the critical all Israel experiences (as well as summer camp leadership, management and fundraising skills, programs). In an exit survey of recent Israel MASA

the jewish people policy institute 149 participants, 47% said they would like to work in dependent on the quality of grantees to fulfill their a Jewish organization and another 40% said they philanthropic visions and strategic priorities. They, would potentially consider it.36 Professional visits, no less than others, suffer from personnel weakness. institutes and sabbaticals in Israel can serve as The foundations could incentivize a collective periodic motivational “booster shots.” Beyond impact approach through a compatible inspiration, it is important that high-potential funding model known as 'high stakes donor professionals spend extended and repeated collaboration.'The Bridgespan Group defines the time in Israel to develop a deeper understanding following criterion, “a shared multiyear vision of contemporary society, acquire Hebrew around which donors pool talent, resources, and language skills and develop relationships that can decision making.”38 Subsuming individual decision facilitate global dialogue, making into a funding collaborative as well as collaboration and mutual governance into a larger organizational collective support. An Israel is rare and difficult, but offers enormous potential It is important experience of at least three and may be the essential factor in moving the that high- months, and preferably a initiative forward. potential year, should be part of any long-term professional professionals Best practices in human resource development program. spend extended management and repeated • Within any organization, a well developed, time in Israel Funding comprehensive human resource function It is evident, and reinforced needs to address the following: careful design of by interviewees, that organizational structure and job descriptions; implementing the best continuous scouting, identification, cultivation practices described below, and recruitment of high-potential employees; launching a center for executive development, skills in screening, interviewing and hiring; a collective impact initiative and the creation proper on-boarding, orientation, training, of a backbone structure will require increases in supervision and performance management; funding. This will mean organizations devoting a employee retention and career development greater portion of their operating budgets to these strategies, competitive compensation and matters as well as seeking new funding. However, personnel policies; supportive work culture from a cost-benefit and leverage perspective, these and environment including reasonable investments should be seen as reasonable and expectations, team building and productive 37 essential, and not dismissed as overhead. lay-professional relations. Such practices will The role of Jewish foundations is critical. It should improve the reputation and attraction of be a concern shared by all of them, as they are Jewish professional careers.

150 the jewish people policy institute • In the Jewish community, emphasis is usually • Many organizations actively or inadvertently placed on recruitment, especially of beginning discourage employees from exploring new workers. However, effective retention opportunities. Rather than risk good people strategies, embedded in a comprehensive HR leaving the field, the community needs to program, are equally critical to sustain a high develop ways to encourage retention and quality work force, leveraging investments career development within the field, if not in and reducing turnover costs. a particular organization.39 • Proactive emergency and ongoing succession • Special efforts are needed to encourage and and transition planning. Special care is support the advancement of women. Attention needed in cases of long tenure, charismatic must be paid to flexible work schedules, or iconic, CEO’s. Potential successors may maternity leave, worry that even when organizations desire work-life balance and Succession change, the sense of loss and inevitable providing on-ramps planning and comparisons will make it difficult to succeed. for women returning executive As one potential CEO candidate noted, “it after child rearing. searches might be better to be the second successor.” • Organizational should include Succession planning and executive searches culture must change substantial should include substantial representation to destigmatize representation from younger leaders to a) provide input and set positive from younger into critical strategic questions and b) assess expectations for leaders candidates’ capacity to relate. remedial or ongoing • Many, if not most, Jewish professionals did not training for CEOs. plan for careers in Jewish organizational life. For New CEOs should automatically be provided some, an interesting job turned into a career. an executive coach and peer mentor. Annual Individuals were often encouraged to consider performance reviews should define areas for a position by a friend, mentor, or chance growth and further training.40 acquaintance. These individuals were literally • Professional associations, recognition ‘tapped on the shoulder’ and encouraged to activities, mentoring, collegial support, and think about Jewish organizational work. All proactive marketing can enhance the image professional and volunteer leaders can play and status of the profession.41 a similar role. As part of a broad initiative, special attention should be given to • Boards of Directors must set expectations, continually scouting for potential candidates, actively monitor performance and hold especially from the Jewish innovation sector. management accountable for effective human resource management.42

the jewish people policy institute 151 Volunteer & Informal exception of the rabbinate) was that ‘the board Jewish Leadership sets policy and the staff implements it.’ To a large degree, CEOs and senior staff played a facilitative Although most of the burden for the Jewish future role empowering the board to lead and then taking will fall on professionals, volunteers and prominent responsibility for managing implementation and individuals in government, entertainment, media, administrative. Numerous factors have caused and academia will be central to shaping the future a power shift in favor of the CEO, which is and continued thriving of the Jewish people. In a endorsed by most interviewees. The new ideal is decentralized, individualized and global Jewish a vision-driven, empowered leader, who not only world, inspiration, thought, leadership, and the manages effectively, but shapes direction, policy impetus for change may and strategy. Nonprofit management literature come from anywhere. validates a new paradigm where the board and Successful One needs only reflect staff develop policy together; the board sets policy; nonprofit on the establishment of the staff implements policy and the board and leadership Birthright Israel, Sarah staff evaluate policy together (Herman, 2010, p entails creative Silverman’s “The Great 157-161). However, whether or not boards actually power sharing Schlep,” Steven Spielberg’s assert leadership, they possess authority and legal between role in Holocaust and moral responsibility for organizational success the Board education or Thomas and sustainability. Successful nonprofit leadership and CEO Friedman’s influence on entails creative power sharing between the board Jewish public opinion, to and CEO, a dynamic fraught with complexity and recognize that the efforts danger. and impact of mainstream Jewish organizations There are great risks if the board lacks the are balanced by forces outside their control. We capacity or will to play its mandated role. Agency are fully dependent on the continued willingness failure may ensue. The board’s role in giving and of the wealthiest Jews to support Jewish causes. fundraising is critical to organizational success. Prominent Jews in popular culture will shape and And as discussed earlier, it should assume a reinforce attitudes and behavior. Israeli leaders will measure of ownership for assuring effective influence how young Jews connect to the Jewish human resources practices. people. Regarding volunteer leadership, there are several Volunteer leadership well-recognized, troubling trends: A shift has occurred in the classic lay-professional • Inadequate numbers of high-quality relationship. Built on nonprofit law and historical (knowledgeable, skilled and financially evolution, the classic paradigm (with the partial capable) volunteer leaders.

152 the jewish people policy institute • Limited and declining proportion of Jewish • The impact that informal leaders may play wealth and volunteer activism directed to on the internal thinking, direction, policy, Jewish causes. strategy, operation and culture of the Jewish • Difficulty attracting and retaining next- community and its organizations. generation volunteer leaders. • As ’soft power assets,’ able to influence external Overall, the extent and depth of volunteer public opinion, government policy and action orientation, training and development is very on critical issues of Jewish concern such as the weak and problematic. Many volunteers resist security of Israel. However, growing division training and professionals are hesitant to point over Israel, and the willingness to publicly out weakness.43 Most effort is focused on ‘young criticize it mean that these individuals often leadership’ prospects. Efforts should be expanded work in conflicting ways. to recruit, train and develop volunteer leaders. Informal leaders can be However, the most impactful long-term strategy categorized at least five may actually be developing a professional leadership ways, though these are Today, CEOs corps and CEOs who value and empower volunteer not mutually exclusive: are expected governance and are capable of inspiring and • Prominent, widely to be the engaging high-capacity volunteer leaders. This can recognized Jews who true chief launch a reinforcing, virtuous cycle of improvement, are influential in their development where better volunteers recruit better CEOs and so professional fields, officers on. Today, CEOs are expected to be the true chief possess a strong development officers. That role should transcend Jewish identity and fundraising and include the development of high- willingness to lend quality volunteers. CEOs must apply the same their prestige and power to Jewish issues – cultivation skills and efforts to identify, engage, either internally or externally. In particular, empower and place individuals of vision, intelligence, this includes Jews in politics, high government knowledge, and diverse skills, in top governance positions, journalism and academia. They are positions. Organizational culture must change to able to leverage their knowledge, relationships value these qualities as much as financial ability. and credibility, especially around issues related to Israel and Jewish security, and to shape Informal leadership opinion and attitudes inside and outside the Jewish community. The subject of informal leadership appears to receive little focused consideration regarding its • Others, similar in prominence, who may have extent, trends and strategies to strengthen it. It is rich Jewish lives and may serve as sources of important on at least two levels: Jewish pride, but do not act formally in Jewish

the jewish people policy institute 153 affairs. Some of these individuals like Jon that this may ultimately limit the current Stewart, who command wide followings, may disproportionate Jewish access to elite universities, be seen as role models or serve as the voice of which he claims produce the majority of U.S. a segment of the Jewish population. In that influentials. manner they may shape or reinforce attitudes Activities to cultivate informal leadership and or patterns of behavior. soft power assets exist, primarily within individual • Extremely wealthy individuals, who by virtue organizations. CLAL and national programs such of their philanthropy or their multi-faceted as the Dorot Fellowships and Wexner Fellows play business, social and civic involvements, can a role. Programs like Birthright Excel, the Bronfman assert leadership and influence. In particular, Fellowships and ROI are focused on younger these individuals use mega-foundations to innovators and potential influentials. However, shape organizational policy and priorities. there is a sense that there is more opportunity • Israeli or other global political, business and and that devising strategies to identify, develop cultural leaders, whose and engage rising Jewish influentials would be opinions or actions shape valuable. As an example, “She Should Run” is a U.S. North American thinking organization that works to identify and encourage There is growing and attitudes, or through promising women to seek public office. Another concern about government policy, model is the Ruderman Fellows program, which the declining impact Jewish life in North brings Israeli Knesset members to the United share of Jewish America. States. As a caveat, collaborative efforts will be philanthropy challenged by the diversity of opinions and will Most interviewees directed to need to build a tolerant, inclusive attitude. believe that the Jewish Jewish causes community continues to produce substantial Policy Recommendation numbers of prominent Convene a national consultation that involves and influential Jews and leadership of the Jewish public affairs world on the that it continues to have topic of “Expanding Jewish Soft Power Resources.” substantial soft power assets. Yet given geo- Ideally, leaders of the major national public affairs political challenges, more would be better. There organizations, the Republican Jewish Coalition, is growing concern about the declining share of Jewish Democratic Council, and the largest local Jewish philanthropy directed to Jewish causes. community relations agencies would convene Worthy of further examination is a provocative under the sponsorship of a neutral umbrella to article by Ron Unz (2012) that suggests a decline explore strategies and opportunities to deepen in Jewish academic achievement. Unz speculates the number, activism and impact of highly-visible

154 the jewish people policy institute and influential Jews in government, public service, Sadly today, we are inadequate to that challenge politics, media, academia and the arts. and a broad, sustained and urgent focus on Such a consultation would need to be strictly non- leadership is required. partisan and encompass diverse perspectives. Careful attention and preparation are required to identify the most effective convener(s) and create an environment where promising ideas can move forward.

Outlook We have been conditioned to view leadership as embodied by the image of the heroic, visionary, and charismatic individual, capable of igniting the masses and bringing about dramatic change.44 However, the challenges we currently face, though substantial and urgent, lack the clarity, acuity and drama of crises that typically give rise to heroic leaders. In truth, we pray that the need does not arise. And the North American Jewish community is voluntary and resists centralized authority and uniformity. Moreover, changing cultural norms as well as evidence from leadership and management literature point to the need today for more empowering, collaborative leaders and processes where leadership is distributed and change emerges from a shared vision for the future. In that context, we will require an army of professional, volunteer and informal leaders, who possess a deep understanding of the current context, and the passion, will and skill to take on the task of sustaining a thriving Jewish people.

the jewish people policy institute 155 Notes Leadership. San Francisco: CompassPoint Nonprofit Services and the Meyer Foundation. Available online 1. Burstein, Paul (2010). Jewish Nonprofit Organizations at: http://daringtolead.org/wp-content/uploads/ in the U.S.: A Preliminary Survey. Contemporary Jewry Daring-to-Lead-2011-Main-Report-online.pdf, p 4. 31(1), p. 139. 8. Jones, Jeffrey M. (2012). Expected Retirement Age in 2. Austin, Michael J. & Salkowitz, Tracy (2009). Executive U.S. up to 67. Gallup Economy. Accessed 1/2/2012 Development and Succession Planning: A Growing http://www.gallup.com/poll/154178/expected- Challenge for the American Jewish Community. retirement-age.aspx. New York: Jewish Funders Network. Available online 9. Berkshire, Jennifer C. (Jan. 13, 2013). Half of Fundraisers at http://www.bjpa.org/Publications/details. in the Top Job Would Like to Quit. The Chronicle cfm?PublicationID=6524. of Philanthropy. Accessed 1/26/2013 at http:// 3. Moses, Larry (2012). Engaging New Talent to Lead philanthropy.com/article/Half-of-Fundraisers-in- Change for the Next Jewish Community. E-Jewish the-Top/136577. Philanthropy. (Prepared for the Jim Joseph 10. Austin & Salkowitz, p16. Foundation). Accessed 12/18/2012 at http:// ejewishphilanthropy.com/engaging-new-talent- 11. Charendoff, Mark (2010). The Case for Term Limits to-lead-change-for-the-next-jewish-community. in Jewish Life. E-Jewish Philanthropy, Sept. 7, 2010. Accessed 2/5/2013 at http://www.thejewishweek. 4. Noble, Steven J. (2012). Effective CEO Transitioning/ com/editorial_opinion/opinion/case_term_ Leadership Sustainability in North American limits_jewish_life. Jewish Nonprofit Organizations. New York: The Jewish Communal Service Association of North 12. Austin & Salkowitz, p 14. America. Available online at: http://www.bjpa.org/ 13. Cornelius, Marla, Corvington, Patrick & Ruesga, Publications/details.cfm?PublicationID=6524. Albert (2008). Ready to Lead? Next Generation Leaders 5. Tierney, Thomas, J. (2006).The Nonprofit Sector’s Speak Out. San Francisco: CompassPoint Nonprofit Leadership Deficit. The Bridgespan Group. Accessed Services, The Annie E. Casey Foundation, The Meyer 12/26/2012 at http://youth-root.org/pub/doc/ Foundation and Idealist.org. Available online at Leadership-Deficit-White-Paper.pdf.pdf, p 2. http://www.compasspoint.org/sites/default/files/ docs/research/521_readytolead2008.pdf, p 6. 6. See The Annie E. Casey Foundation (2004). Change Ahead The 2004 Nonprofit Executive Leadership and 14. See Noble, Austin & Salkowitz. Transitions Survey. Available online at http://www. Cohen, Steven M. (Fall 2010). Profiling the aecf.org/upload/publicationfiles/change%20 Professionals: Who’s Serving Our Communities? New summary.pdf. See also The Conference Board (2007). York: The Jewish Communal Service Association of Boomers are Ready for Nonprofits but are Nonprofits North America, The Berman Jewish Policy Archive @ Ready for Them? New York. Available online at NYU Wagner. http://www.encore.org/files/ConfBdreport5-25. pdf, p 5-6. Dobbs, Stephen Mark, Tobin, Gary A. & Hymowitz, Zev (2004) The Development of Professional 7. Cornelius, Marla, Moyers, Rick & Bell, Jeanne (2011). Leadership in the Jewish Community. San Francisco: Daring to Lead 2011 A National Study of Nonprofit Institute for Jewish & Community Research.

156 the jewish people policy institute Kelner, Shaul, Rabkin, Michael, Saxe, Leonard & 17. Charan, Ram (2005). Ending the CEO Succession Sheingold, Carl (2004). Recruiting and Retaining a Crisis. Harvard Business Review, Feb. 2005, p 1-2. Professional Workforce for the Jewish Community: A 18. Cornelius, Moyers & Bell, p 4. Review of Existing Research. Waltham, MA: Maurice and Marilyn Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies, 19. Klein, Lori & Liff-Grieff, Shira (2009). From Generation Fisher Bernstein Institute for Jewish Philanthropy and to Generation: Changing Behavioral Perceptions and Leadership, Brandeis University. Expectations in Jewish Nonprofits.Journal of Jewish Communal Service, 84(3/4), 325-333). Kelner, Shaul, Rabkin, Michael, Saxe, Leonard & Sheingold, Carl (2005). The Jewish Sector’s Workforce: 20. Austin & Salkowitz, p 9. Report of a Six-Community Study. Waltham, MA: 21. Noble, Austin & Salkowitz. Maurice and Marilyn Cohen Center for Modern 22. The Annie Casey Foundation. Jewish Studies, Fisher Bernstein Institute for Jewish Philanthropy and Leadership, Brandeis University. 23. Noble. 15. See Urban Institute. (2006). “Nonprofits’ Decade of 24. Edell, David (2002). Professional Recruitment Growth Outpaces Economy.” http://www.urban. and Retention: A Call to Action. Journal of Jewish org/publications/901011.html (accessed Dec. 26, Communal Service 79(1) 61-66. And, Edell, David 2012). (2012). Enough Talk About the Leadership Crisis. July 16, 2012. Accessed Salomon, Lester M, Skolowski, S. Wjciech & Geller, E-Jewish Philanthropy, 1/7/2012 at http://ejewishphilanthropy.com/ Stephanie L. (2012). Holding the Fort: Nonprofit enough-talk-about-the-leadership-crisis-a-call-to- Employment During a Decade of Turmoil. Baltimore: action-again. Johns Hopkins University, Center for Civil Society Studies. Available online at http://ccss.jhu.edu/ 25. Grantmakers for Effective Organizations (2008). wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/01/NED_ Supporting Next-Generation Leadership.Washington National_2012.pdf. DC. Available online at http://docs.geofunders. org/?filename=GEO_NextGenLead_final.pdf. Nonprofit HR Solutions (2012).2012 Nonprofit Employment Trends Survey. Washington. Available 26. Kelner, Rabkin, Saxe & Sheingold, 2004. Moses, online at http://www.nonprofithr.com/ Larry S. (2001). RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION clientuploads/PDFs/2012%20Nonprofit%20 Imperatives for the Field of Jewish Communal Service. Employment%20Trends%20Report.pdf. Journal of Jewish Communal Service, 78. 16. Landres, J. Shawn. (12/08/09) Comment on e-Jewish 27. Heifetz, Ronald A. & Laurie, Donald L. (1997). The Philanthropy. Retrieved, 1/5/2013 at http://blogs.jta. Work of Leadership. Harvard Business Review 79(11), org/philanthropy/article/2009/12/08/1009603/ 131-141. the-growth-of-the-nonprofit-sector. 28. Kania, John & Kramer, Mark (2011). Collective Impact. And Rosenblatt, Gary (4/27/2011). Where Have Stanford Social Innovation Review, Winter 2011.The All The Rabbis Gone?The New York Jewish Week. authors define the critical components of collective Accessed 1/6/2012 http://www.thejewishweek. action as 1) shared vision for change and a common com/editorial_opinion/gary_rosenblatt/where_ agenda, 2) shared measurement systems, 3) mutually have_all_rabbis_gone. reinforcing activities, 4) continuous communication

the jewish people policy institute 157 and 5) a backbone support organization to coordinate Outcomes in an Era of Scarcity. Washington, DC: and catalyze action. These are complicated and costly Venture Philanthropy Partners. systems. They also require a willingness of otherwise 38. Seldon, Willa, Tierney, Thomas J. & Fernando, Gihani independent organizations to share decision-making (2013). High Stakes Donor Collaborations. Stanford on human resource issues in a more systemic manner. Social Innovation Review, 11(2), p 48. 29. Austin & Salkowitz, Edell 2012. 39. Dobbs, Mark, Tobin & Hymowitz, p 7. 30. Barrett, Annalisa. Equilar Study: CEO Turnover. 40. Edell, 2012. Accessed 2/11/2013 at http://www.equilar.com/ knowledge-network/research-articles/201104- 41. Kelner, Rabkin, Saxe & Sheingold, 2005, p vii. ceo-turnover.php. 42. Tierney, Edell, 2012. 31. Noble. 43. Austin & Salkowitz, p 19-21. 32. For example, Mitam, (http://www.mitam-hr.org/) 44. In the very critical venue of global political leadership, a new Israeli nonprofit, formed to recruit nonprofit Yehezkel Dror has called for what he terms “The New staff and support human resource management. Ruler.” Many of the qualifications align with, though Likewise, shared services organizations (for example transcend, the ideal profile contained herein and are http://www.missioncenterl3c.com/) have formed instructive. Dror, Yehezkel (2008). The New Ruler. in the United States to support a range of nonprofits Background Policy Documents for Facing Tomorrow. needs including human resource management. Jerusalem: The Jewish People Policy Planning 33. Austin & Salkowitz. Institute, p 133-155. 34. Renz, David O. (2010). Reframing Governance. The Nonprofit Quarterly, Winter 2009, 50-53. Retrieved 12/28/2012 from https://www.allianceonline. org/sites/default/files/docs/Renz,%202010,%20 Reframing%20Governance.pdf. 35. Moses, 2012. 36. Rubel, Avi (2/13/2013). Who’s Going to Lead the Jewish Community in the Future? e-Jewish Philanthropy. Accessed 3/2/2013 at http://ejewishphilanthropy. com/whos-going-to-lead-the-jewish-community- in-the-future. 37. Increasing numbers of nonprofit leaders recognize that unquestioned allegiance to minimizing administrative ratios can be counter-productive to achieving organizational impact, and limits needed investments in personnel, evaluation, performance management and technology. For example, see Morino, Mario (2011). Leap of Reason Managing

158 the jewish people policy institute Latin American Jewish life in the 21st Century: The paradox of shrinking communities, 11 and expanded - revitalized Jewish life

In the second decade of the 21st century, Latin 150,000 and 250,000 Jews have emigrated from American Jewish life faces new opportunities and Latin American countries, both inside and outside challenges created by globalization and migration the region, mainly to the United States, Israel, and processes. Globalization and its contradictory to a lesser extent, countries in Western Europe nature have sharpened sectorial inequalities while (Spain) as well as Canada. Thus, there has been a posing new opportunities affecting Jews. New significant drop in the number of Jews in the region economic models have brought achievements – from 514,000 in the 1970s to 392,000 today and cyclical crises, and growing pluralism and (DellaPergola 2009, 2011). Argentina still hosts the democratization processes have reached high largest Jewish community on the continent in spite points. Economic and political changes combined of its significant demographic reduction – from with social inequalities provoked increased an alleged half a million in the 1960s to 390,000 a emigration fluxes of Latin American Jews from decade later, and subsequent radical drops. Today, the region, leading them to transition from its core population numbers around 180,000. communities of immigrants to communities of The demographic profile of the Jewish population citizens and simultaneously, of emigrants; also to in Mexico has been more stable, due to more new professional opportunities and expanding traditional socio-demographic patterns and the markets. influx of Jews from other parts of Latin America. Indeed, in the last decades, the net direction of Mexican Jews presently number 40,000. The Jewish migration flows tended to be from Latin America population in Uruguay has dropped from 50,000 to other destinations. Outward mobility of Latin to 22,000; in Venezuela, from 30,000 to 15,000; American Jews is part of a larger globalization and in Chile, from 30,000 to 21,000. El Salvador, phenomenon of unexpected scope – from 75 Ecuador, Peru, and Paraguay have also experienced million migrants in 1965 to 120 million in 1990, and significant decreases in their Jewish populations 214 million in 2009 (Held et al. 1999; UNDP 2009). since the 1970s. In Brazil, the number of Jews It is estimated that in the past 40 years between fell from 140,000 to 96,000, mainly as a result of

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 159 assimilation. In the last few years, however, this different moments of migratory movements and trend has stabilized and the numbers even show a their impact on communities and societies of the slight increase (Ibid.). region. Sharp Jewish population decreases in Central Current scenarios can be viewed from diverse American countries since the mid-1980s represent perspectives. The new trends point both to relatively significant outflows. But in the case emigration and to an expanded and revitalized of Guatemala, more than half of its population Latin American Jewish life in origin countries and decided to remain in their homeland. Neighboring beyond the territorial borders of local communities, Costa Rica has increased its Jewish population nation-States, and the region at large. Migration by two-thirds since 1967, while Panama became flows influence both sending and receiving Jewish a relocation destination communities/national societies within wide social 35% of for groups of Jews from spheres and institutional arenas characterized by Argentina's other Central American increasingly dynamic relationships between Jewish Jewish countries. individuals and groups (Bokser Liwerant 20 02, 2006). For the various receiving Jewish communities, population Migration waves from immigration constitutes a factor of demographic migrated Latin America are of support while bringing cultural enrichment and between 1970- different nature and institutional renovation. Thus, one cannot analyze 2009 and yet only scope; they reflect both Latin American Jewish life through conventional 8% expressed needs and opportunities: dichotomous categories (such as internal-external, that emigration they encompassed periphery-center) but rather via elastic and constitutes a forced migration and comprehensive frameworks based on a transnational serious threat exiled individuals at perspective. The recent election of Chávez’s successor, high risk (e.g. politically President Nicolás Maduro, will likely reinforce the involved activists and intellectuals); voluntary prevailing trend. household relocation motivated by safety, security and economic considerations; and As stated, a contrasting case in the leadership’s movement of professionals seeking opportunities perceptions is Argentina, which has also and entrepreneurial expansion within a context experienced a significant demographic reduction of interconnected markets. Indeed, there has (-35% of its Jewish population, 1970-2009), and yet been a sustained movement of professionals in only 8% expressed that emigration constitutes a privileged occupations who began or operated serious threat. We may explain the differences in businesses and sought education; Jews constituted perceptions first, as a result of an ongoing process a high proportion of them. The diverse processes of institution building and communal recovery, and leading to emigration have operated selectively. secondly, because of return movements that have Thus, changes in migration streams shed light on taken place there. The perception of emigration as

160 the jewish people policy institute a serious threat is shared by the leadership of other those who had graduated with a PhD or were Latin American Jewish communities: Colombia engineers employed in the U.S. (UNESCO 2010). (45%), Peru (33%), Mexico (25%), Uruguay (20%), Yet, within a region that ranks as the third highest and Chile (10%). Venezuela stands out with the source of migrants in the world, the increased highest percentage (90%). For the majority (8 out mobility of qualified migrants coexists with large of 10 respondents), their country would likely not marginal sectors of non-skilled workers and the receive Jewish immigration in the coming years, rural poor who lack formal education and face thereby signaling a negative balance between restrictive immigration policies (so-called “red emigration and immigration. card” migrants) (Faist 2010). Contemporary migration has also expanded Latin In this context of interconnected realities, according American Jewish life. It includes steady, repeated, to the AJDC survey of circular, bi-local and multi-local movements. In a opinion makers, almost all An estimated world in flux, new phenomena include expanded interviewees (99%) agreed range of mobility, multiple relocations, transmigration and that it is “very important” between the creation of sustained links and interactions to “strengthen” relations 100,000 and across borders of the nation-states. Furthermore, among Jews living in 133,000 new patterns of circulation of people and various parts of the region. Latin American knowledge develop, as well as the exchange of 8 out of 10 agreed that Jews live intellectual, scientific, and cultural production. “Latin American Jews had in the Latin American Jews are part of the cohort of a special responsibility to U.S. today qualified migrants with “red carpet” status who one another.” 77% agreed increasingly move to OECD countries. Because of that “Latin American its proximity and the opportunities it offers, the Jews have unique and valuable perspectives U.S. attracts a large number of highly qualified to share.” However, 6 out of 10 disagreed with Latin American migrants. In the first decade of the statement that “each local community was the 21st century there were 494,000 scientists of strongly integrated to other Latin American Jewish Latin American origin; this number represents communities.” Thus, while there seems to be great 15% of foreigners incorporated into the science interest in closer cooperation and exchanges across and technology system. At present, education of Latin American communal-territorial borders, this Latin American students at U.S. universities and expectation has not necessarily been matched by their insertion into the academic and professional the reality on the ground. It remains a challenge to spectrum is widespread. In 2007, 229 Mexicans, 180 communal regional and global policy. Brazilians, 141 Argentines, and 121 Colombians Demographic trends associated with the migration obtained a PhD in the U.S. In 2003, naturalized of Latin American Jews mainly to North America, individuals or non-residents constituted 19% of Israel, and Europe imply diverse models of Jewish life

the jewish people policy institute 161 that partly reflect global trends, and partly reflect ranging from literature to music – as well as their the specificity of the region. As to their presence political leverage, as demonstrated in the 2012 in the United States, precise numbers still need to presidential election. be discerned. But estimates range between 100,000 Latin American Jews have incorporated into and 133,000 (by core and enlarged definitions different “American” milieus while maintaining their – DellaPergola 2011) and 156,000 (Sheskin and socio-cultural distinctiveness, both with respect Dashefsky 2011). It is calculated that a similar to their culture of origin and their Jewishness. number migrated to Israel (115,000/150,000 Jewish collective models have been transferred to – core/enlarged definition) and 12,500/20,000 and recreated into educational institutions and to other places. In comparison to other Jewish communal organizations in the United States migrant groups in the while hybrid models are also part of the new United States, the various Latin American scenarios. In a global Jewish world characterized by Latin American flows Jews have high institutional and organizational density, Latin feature steady growth, incorporated American Jews can incorporate and even integrate although differences into different into different host communities by displaying prevail in each particular American multiple identities – as Jews, as Latin American national context. milieus while Jews, as Latin Americans or Hispanic/Latinos, as maintaining The relocation of Latin Mexicans, Colombians, Argentines…Americans/ their socio- American Jewish life in the Israelis. Their increasing arrival numbers and cultural U.S. should be seen within their demands for inclusion test conventional distinctiveness the broader Hispanic/ boundaries and mutual perceptions of similarity Latino concrete and and difference. imagined world. Hispanic/ Permanence amid mobility characterizes urban Latinos have reached sites where Latin American Jews have relocated. nearly 50.5 million in the U.S. (16.3% of the total In the United States, Jewish communities become population) and have become the largest minority magnets for settlement. For example, Miami- in the United States, a 61% increase since 1990. Dade county in Southern Florida and San Diego It is estimated that they will comprise 25% of in Southern California constitute new centers 1 the U.S. population by 2020. This demographic where diverse transnational processes operate trend is even more significant when compared to concurrently: out-migration, translocation, the growth of the total U.S. population and the relocation, return, short-term and temporary demographic trends of the U.S. Jewish population. experiences. In both places, the non-homogenous Given their group’s size and profile, Hispanic/ character of American Jewish life stands out. San Latinos residing in the U.S. have significantly Diego’s Jewish population of 89,000 is smaller than increased their social and cultural influence – the traditionally large community of Argentina,

162 the jewish people policy institute but larger than the Mexican Jewish community. that are part of the connecting-reconnecting The Jewish community in Miami-Dade county, experiences across communities within American combined with the neighboring Ft. Lauderdale and Jewry and which widen and enrich the scope of Palm Beach areas (Southeast Florida), represents Jewish life. the third most populous in the country. Although Migratory waves to Miami from Venezuela, updated data needs to be collected, the number Colombia, Argentina, and Mexico draw convergent of Latin American Jews is estimated at 16,000 scenarios of trans-local status. Mexican Jews in San individuals in Miami-Dade (Sheskin 2004) and Diego travel to Tijuana/Mexico City; Venezuelans 600-700 Mexican Jewish families (or 2,400 Jews) in and Mexicans do so from Miami to Caracas and San Diego (private estimates). Mexico City. The well-established connections of Mobility and relocation widen the spectrum of Venezuelan and Mexican social and cultural encounters between distinct Jewish businessmen in principles, historical trajectories, models and logics Florida highlight the of the collective: congregational and community way current economic Mobility and (kehilah). However, both differences and changes create favorable relocation similarities today shape the paths of incorporation conditions for transitory widen the and mutual influence with outcomes still in the migration that, as spectrum making. Overall, affiliation rates in Latin America will be seen, do not of social are higher than in the United States. While the gap exclude permanence and cultural between Mexico City and San Diego is striking (80 or incorporation encounters and 35%, respectively), cities in Brazil and Argentina into American Jewish have far lower affiliation rates (40-45%), closer to communities/society. the U.S. national average. Intermarriage rates in the Educational institutions in U.S. (about 50%) contrast with much lower rates the U.S. reflect a mosaic in Mexico and Venezuela (less than or just above of experience that ranges from more religious 10%) but are similar to those in Argentina and frameworks to pluralistic ones. In both Miami Brazil. and San Diego, stable Jewish educational settings, The integration of Latin American Jews into the which are also socially cohesive, have attracted U.S. and the keeping of both original collective Latin American Jews even when characterized by codes of old-country cultural norms/models and greater religiosity levels than those to which they of transnational connections are not mutually belonged in their countries of origin. Some Jewish exclusive social processes; therefore, the possibility educational settings – with a significant ratio of of “simultaneity” is increased (Levitt and Glick Latin American migrants – show integration and Schiller, 2004). In turn, integration is not a one- mutual influence, and the reciprocal adoption sided process; it entails reciprocal influences of new religious and quotidian cultural practices

the jewish people policy institute 163 within bilingual environments. Pluri-national The Latin American presence in Israel, where and sub-ethnic origins act as defining factors of they have been incorporated in major scientific, practices and institutional arrangements (Bokser academic, sociocultural and economic realms, Liwerant, 2013).2 points to high levels of integration and the Paradigmatic examples of patterns of centrality of the place and role of the Zionist idea participation, leadership, and activism of these and the State of Israel in the region (Roniger and migrants can be observed in local communal Babis, 2011). organizations (e.g., Jewish Federations, Hillel, While sharing global trends and expressing AIPAC, Israel’s University Associations). Similar singularity, the links and attachment to Israel have to Hebraica/JCC in Miami, the Ken in San Diego a central role in Jewish Latin American life. Political can be seen as an ethno- concepts, values, aspirations, and organizational national bordered space entities of the global Jewish world played a that reproduces and fundamental role in the cultural and institutional Links and sustains Latin American formation of the Jewish communities, while the attachment Jewish social practices State of Israel and the Jewish/Zionist ethos were to Israel (including language, singular actors/catalysts in one center-periphery have a food, music, social model. Family ties, youth travel programs, and central role gatherings, and Zionist educational programs are today understood as key in Jewish identification). to strengthening support for Israel. Latin American life Additionally, it is worth Data on Mexico and Argentina show that the underscoring the transfer level of importance attributed to Israel and the of the Hebraica/Latin degree of proximity are largely determined by American communal age3 and country of origin.4 In the region, Mexico model worldwide, has exceptionally high rates of visits to Israel while including to the United States, Central and Western lower rates characterize Argentina, Brazil and Europe and the FSU, mainly through global Jewish Venezuela. Past tendencies in the U.S. show that institutions and highly mobile individuals with just over one third of all American Jewish adults key community roles. The Jewish communities have been to Israel (35%), almost two thirds of Spain, mainly in Madrid and Barcelona, have (63%) of American Jews say they are emotionally experienced revival of Jewish life through this attached to Israel, and nearly three quarters (72%) model aided by the presence of Latin American say U.S. and Israeli Jews share a common destiny Jewish educators, intellectuals, and professionals. (NJPS, 2001). In America, ties to Israel also vary The clear bond between Hebraica and JDC can be by affiliation and age. The affiliated are uniformly found in Eastern Europe as well. more connected to Israel than the unaffiliated. However, an interesting debate regarding the

164 the jewish people policy institute “distancing hypothesis” has developed. While An important perspective from which to analyze some researchers claim that there is a growing border crossing and mutual influences is the distance from Israel by the younger American impact on individual and communal religious Jewish cohort, with the exception of Orthodox practices (in Latin America and beyond its youth, and this trend will likely lead to a geographic boundaries) by both the Conservative general distancing of American Jews form Israel, and Orthodox religious movements, as part of old (Cohen and Kellman, 2009), others do not find and new Jewish transnationalism. In the 1960s the a dramatic change in attachment. According to Conservative movement spread to South America Sasson, Kadushin and Saxe (2010), the weakened providing the first congregational model that attachment among the young is not the result was imported from the United States (instead of of a distancing pattern but a characteristic of Europe). This movement the Jewish life cycle. Further discussion has brought the synagogue In the 1960s the highlighted the increased complexity of Israel- to the forefront of conservative diaspora relations and the lack of conclusive communal and societal movement evidence regarding the above mentioned erosion, life by mobilizing spread to which shows the need to consider both the thousands of otherwise South America changing circumstances of American Jewish life non-affiliated Jews (Elazar providing and Israel’s social and political scenario (Rosner 1989). One proof of the the first and Hakman, 2012). lack of religious leadership congregational to which Elazar refers On their part, Latin American youngsters in the model imported and its importance to U.S. increasingly participate in Taglit, a watershed from the United religious development is initiative that has come as an alternative to the States study trips and Hachsharot in their countries of found in the success of origin (Saxe et al, 2011). Recent data reveal that Rabbi Marshall Meyer. aliyah propensities in the U.S. are the lowest of any Rabbi Meyer took upon himself the task of country worldwide (DellaPergola, 2011). Cultural preparing a new rabbinical leadership, establishing activities and events, public opinion and political the Seminario Rabínico Latino Americano in support for Israel are growing in importance, though Argentina. Today its graduates serve throughout differentially in the region, depending on the scope Latin America and beyond. Their presence in and nature of the public sphere, civil society, and communities in the United States is not only due citizen participation (Sznajder and Roniger, 2013). to the lack of opportunities in local communities, New public codes have developed legitimizing but also reflects the new phenomenon of regional transnational links of the Jewish communities both migration. Close to 22 rabbis presently serve related to Israel and other communities through a throughout the United States. They circulated to wide web of lateral ties and interactions. the North due to new windows of opportunity

the jewish people policy institute 165 associated with regional migration as well as to Connecting processes that imply social growing shared patterns of collective life. Latin transformation are also evident along a North- American rabbis and their participation in the new South influence axis as illustrated by the recent settings contribute to the expansion of communal establishment of Hillel chapters in Argentina practices, as Congregation B'nei Jeshurun in New and Uruguay (by individuals connected to Taglit- York City exemplifies. Birthright Israel). These rabbis maintain links with their Although extreme religious and self-segregation communities of origin by travelling to the region strategies are still marginal in Latin American to lead holiday services. As mobile agents of Jewish life, their growing presence corresponds change across national borders, they recreate to global Jewish trends. Jewish communal life and a congregational-communitarian matrix.Thus, concomitant identity building processes face new the relocation of Latin challenges. In fact, in a seemingly paradoxical Orthodox American Jews in the U.S. context of shrinking and expanding in revitalizing groups have constitutes a case that Latin American Jewish communities, identity gathered new allows examination of referents are being redefined as new expressions momentum; such processes by looking of spirituality and forms of religious sociability the spread of at frontier experiences, fill some vacuums. In certain ways Buenos Aires, Chabad is one cultural trade-offs, and Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Miami, San Diego, New exemplary incorporation strategies in York City, Jerusalem, Madrid and Zurich express case. In Latin a globalized Jewish world similarities along the transnationally constituted America there where diverse historical Jewish communal-religious axis. are close to 80 trajectories and shared Local communities face different opportunities Chabad centers trends coexist. and challenges with respect to central issues of The transnationalcontinuity. Along the region, strengthening Jewish religious circuit has also spread to Orthodoxy. education is a top priority for Jewish communities. Indeed, Orthodox groups have gathered Education has had a central role in the shaping of new momentum, founding new religious Latin American Jewish life. Jewish education has congregations and supplying communities with been historically prioritized over other collective religious leadership. The spread of Chabad is one needs in the region, and characterized by integral exemplary case. In Latin America there are close education in day schools. In Mexico, close to 93% to 80 Chabad centers. Its presence is noteworthy of Jewish children today attend Jewish schools with in small and large cities in the U.S. and other a constant student population from kindergarten countries; thousands of Chabad shlichim through high school. A strong organizational (emissaries) currently work around the world. structure of 16 day schools has developed (one school for each 2,500 Jews in Mexico City). The

166 the jewish people policy institute student population has grown 16.5% in the last age population); in 2000, approximately 200,000, eight years as compared to a 6% Jewish population nearly one quarter of all Jewish school-age children growth earlier. attended Jewish day schools. Today, estimates Ashkenazi schools show the greatest percentage point to 242,000. of decrease, 28%, and Maguen David (Halebi) Linking the concepts of continuity and education schools show the highest growth rate with 46% of in public discourse was a relatively recent the total student population. Of this group, 40% phenomenon outside Latin America. It developed attend Haredi schools. The increase of attendance in full force in A Time to Act, the deliberations of numbers in religious schools reflects both the Commission on Jewish Education in North demographic changes in community composition America (1990–1991). This expansion in Jewish and the arrival of educators from intensively education and the high Orthodox South American communities. It also population growth rates Latin American reflects a global trend in Jewish education. among the Orthodox states play A comparative look at Argentina sheds light on sector have become a key role meaningful changes. While in the last decade of central trends that parallel in the the 1990s a total of 16 schools closed and only six new regional and world positioning were able to pass through rational institutional Jewish patterns. of Palestinian restructuring, today there are a total of 42 Similar to other Jewish statehood as schools out of which 14 day schools educate from communities worldwide, a central issue elementary through high school levels, and 17 are Latin American Jewish on the world limited to kindergartens and elementary schools. collective life has been political agenda While figures show a systematic increase of the radically transformed by school population compared to previous years global patterns showing (only 17,075 in 2002, against 19,274 in 1999), they both convergent and point to a total coverage of 43% of Jewish school- divergent trends: transitions from individualization age children. The highest enrollment numbers to collective affirmation as well as the reverse; from are found in religious schools. These educational congregational to communal axes simultaneous trends should be seen in light of the changing with the growing role of synagogues; from approach to education in the Jewish world. secularization to rising religiosity. Even among Precisely, over the last two decades, the number Latin American Jews, these trends are not of children educated in Jewish day schools has linear; instead, they reflect different moments, increased at an unprecedented rate. In the United fluctuations and crossing paths. States, it is estimated that there were 60,000 pupils Amid processes of globalization and in days schools in 1962, but by 1982-83 there were transnationalism, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict some 104,000 students (10% of the Jewish school-

the jewish people policy institute 167 reflects the complex interplay between of Statehood to the United Nation’s General international, regional, national and local Assembly. Latin America can be seen as a fertile soil dynamics. Latin American States play a key role for the two simultaneous but opposing processes in the positioning of Palestinian statehood as a of de-legitimation of Israel and legitimation of central issue on the global political agenda. As Palestine. The latter has followed a pattern of early as December 2010, there emerged a chain Transnational Advocacy Networks of activists of recognitions of Palestine by different Latin bound together by shared values, a common American states. Brazil took the initiative and discourse, and dense exchanges of information was followed shortly after by Argentina, Bolivia, and services. They are significant insofar as they Ecuador and Paraguay-, neo-populist governments interact with states and other non-state actors in Venezuela, Bolivia, (civic associations and NGOs, academics, media, Ecuador and Nicaragua unions, students) thereby contributing to the Latin America had a leading role (see convergence of social and cultural norms (Keck can be seen as Annual Assessment JPPI and Sikkink 1999; Wajner 2013). fertile ground 2011). for the two When analyzed in Brazil, one observes that in the simultaneous It has been further media struggles that legitimize the creation of but opposing facilitated by the a Palestinian state, a wide spectrum of regional, processes of international and national ethnic, social, religious, labor and academic de-legitimation realignments of interests organizations converge (Ibid). of Israel and and similar “cultural Across the region, interacting and similar trends legitimation of codes” that identify wide favor a fertile soil for emerging civil societies Palestine sectors of public thought, in the process of democratization. The degree media, progressive camps of legitimation of Palestinian aspirations to and leftist intellectuals. statehood among local populations that results Latin America’s historical and ideational trajectory from Transnational Advocacy Networks is largely of anti-Americanism, anti-colonialism, and anti- founded on the presence (or lack thereof) of imperialism has led to the mutual reinforcement a “primary base” of support (e.g., a large Arab of meanings between different components: anti- population in Brazil – estimated at 11 million Semitism, anti-Zionism, and anti-Israelism (Volkov among which 60,000 are Palestinian, and a 2007; Bokser 2012). significant Palestinian population in Chile: However, on September 23, 2011, with Brazil 400,000). As in the past, this could today lead to once again a key detonator, a parallel process of a domino effect that could very likely result in the worldwide political legitimation of the Palestinian further realignment of positions by Guatemala, cause developed following the support given by Mexico, Chile, and Costa Rica. more than 100 countries to the Palestinian proposal

168 the jewish people policy institute Other expressions of transnational realignments well as of the overlapping community/national that were nationally anchored in a conflicting spheres of debate and action point both to a scenario of political polarization are the latest singular case of communal politization and a shared developments in Argentina regarding the growing visibility of Jewish communities in the government's agreement with Iran to create a joint region. Latin American Jewish communities have Truth Commission to investigate the 1994 terrorist achieved a growing presence and participation attack on the Jewish community center, AMIA. in the expanding public spheres of regimes that Protracted and failed investigations were followed have succeeded in democratizing processes and by the formal accusation of Iran by two Argentinian autonomous civil societies. prosecutors (Alberto Nisman and Marcelo Burgos). In 2007, the Argentinian government issued arrest warrants against 6 Iranians, including the defense minister and former president. The agreement to create a joint truth commission represents a new regional and transnational realignment between Argentina and Iran. The search for a leading role in the continent after Chávez’s death and the interest in widening economic relations with Iran, have acted as main motors behind Argentina’s stance. This agreement, approved by Congress, and its condemnation by the community’s leadership condenses a series of processes related to complex interactions between citizenship, loyalty, and the global Jewish world. The role and Jewish identity of Foreign Minister Timerman, who has played a crucial function in the negotiation process; the expressions by different world actors – from the State of Israel to the World Jewish Congress who opposed the agreement – throw light on such interactions. The confrontation with the government reached unprecedented high points and unified a leadership that otherwise mirrors political national divisions in an extremely polarized scenario. Thus, issues of being and belonging, of collective participation as

the jewish people policy institute 169 Policy Recommendations Taking into consideration the already largest and growing Latino-Hispanic minority in the U.S. International migration and new patterns of (reaching 50 million), Latin American Jews should circulation point to the need to design community be understood by policy planners as potential policies oriented toward identifying: a) the mobility bridge builders and they should, consequently, patterns that characterize Latin American Jews formulate strategic inter-group collaborations. and thus the human resources available in both New signs of change point to the need to define origin and destination countries; b) the circuits ways to approach policy making vis-à-vis Latin and networks that facilitate the intellectual, American Jewish life that are less based on scientific, educational, and artistic exchanges collective support in critical times, and more so that knowledge oriented toward prevention and consolidation of and creative products communal life, which take into account cultural no longer remain legacies. A multi-centered reality and increasing isolated but instead lateral ties between the new and old home(s) Transnationalism can be accumulated, should also guide the design of new perspectives today points transmitted, and by key actors from Latin America in leadership to the shared. Thus, Jewish positions. need to communities in the think globally region develop in more Transnationalism today points to the need to equitable terms; c) the think globally and, accordingly, global approaches definition of mechanisms are required when responding (or influencing) and platforms – in situ local and regional public policies vis-à-vis Israel. and virtual – for intra- They should further take into consideration two regional and global levels: on the one hand, coordinated policies at cooperation. the governmental level and on the other, new strategies oriented toward civil society, its changing Increasing migratory fluxes of Latin American role as well as its new actors and mechanisms of Jews to the United States, Israel, and other participation. destination places pose new challenges to the host communities’ diversity and therefore demand from Jewish institutions strategies of incorporation addressing specificity instead of searching after homogenizing responses. Avenues for creating intercultural dialogue within communities, and synergies between collective models should also be devised.

170 the jewish people policy institute Notes References 1. The number provided by the Pew Hispanic Center (2009) is smaller: 48, 348,000 Hispanics live in the U.S.. Bokser Liwerant, Judit. 2002. Globalization and Collective Of this total, 31, 674,000 are Mexican (based on self- Identities. Social Compass. 49 (2): 253-271. described family ancestry or place of birth). http:// pewhispanic.org/ ______2006. Globalización, diversidad y 2. Exemplary cases of Orthodox settings are Soille pluralismo (Globalization, Diversity and Pluralism). In Jewish Day School in San Diego and Hillel School in Diversidad y Multiculturalismo-Perspectivas y Desafíos Miami. The Jewish Academy in San Diego works in (Diversity and Multiculturalism – Perspectives and a pluralistic framework, while Chabad Schools are Challenges), coord. Daniel Gutiérrez M., UNAM: 79-102. present in both settings. ______2012. Mexico in a Region Under 3. While among members of the Mexican Jewish Change. Journal for the Study of Antisemitism. 3: 2601-2610. community above 70 years, 97% declared that Israel ______2013. Latin American Jews in the is of utmost importance, among the age group United States. Community and Belonging in Times between 18 and 29 years old only 77% feel this way. of Transnationalism, in Contemporary Jewry, Springler 4. Figures are much higher in Mexico than in Argentina (forthcoming). (Jmelnizky and Erdei, 2005). Cohen, Steven and Ari Kellman (2010) “Beyond Distancing: Young Adult American Jews and Their Alienation form Israel”, Contemporary Jewry 30 (2-3) :297-319

DellaPergola, Sergio (2009). International Migration of Jews. In Transnationalism: Diasporas and the Advent of a New (Dis)Order, eds. Eliezer Ben-Rafael, and Yitzhak Sternberg, 213-236. Leiden and Boston: Brill.

______2011. Jewish Population Policies: Demographic Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora. Jerusalem: The Jewish People Policy Institute.

Elazar, Daniel J. 1989. People and Polity: The Organizational Dynamics of World Jewry. Detroit: Wayne State University Press.

Faist, Thomas, 2010, Transnationalization and development. In Migration, Development and Transnationalization. A critical stance, eds., Glick Schiller Nina, and Thomas Faist. New York: Berghahn Books.

the jewish people policy institute 171 Held, David et al. 1999. Global Transformations. Cambridge: of Citizenship: the Latin America experience,Leiden-Boston: Polity Press. Brill Editorial House.

Keck, Margaret E. and Kathryn Sikkink. 1999. Transnational Shulamit Volkov, “Readjusting Cultural Codes: Reflections Advocacy Networks in International and Regional Politics. on Antisemitism and Anti-Zionism,” in Jeffrey Herf (ed.), International Social Science Journal. 51 (159): 89-101. Antisemitism and Anti-Zionismin Historical Perspective: Convergence and Difference (New York: Routledge), 2007): Latin America Survey Jewish Community Opinion Makers. 39-43. 2012. American Jewish Distribution Committee. Wajner, Daniel. 2013. Redes Transnacionales de Apoyo Levitt, Peggy and Nina Glick Schiller. 2004. Conceptualizing y sus Batallas por la Legitimidad:El caso brasileño de Simultaneity: a Transnational Social Perspective on reconocimiento al Estado palestino (Transnational Society. International Migration Review. 38 (145): 595-629. Advocacy Networks and their Struggles for Legitimacy: Roniger, Luis and Deby Babis, 2010 Latin American The Brazilian case of recognition of a Palestinian State). Israelis:The Collective Identity of an Invisible Community, Liwerant Center, Hebrew University of Jerusalem. in Jewish Identities in an Era of Globalization and World Social Science Report. Knowledge Divides. 2010. Multiculturalism, eds. Judit Bokser Liwerant, Eliezer Ben- UNESCO and International Social Science Council. Rafael, and Yossi Gorny, Leiden-Boston: Brill Editorial House.

Rosner, Shmuel and Inbal Hakman, 2012. The Challenge of Peoplehood: Strengthening the Attachment of Young American Jews to Israel in the Time of the Distancing Discourse, JPPI.

Saxe, Leonard et al. 2011. Jwwish Futures Project. The Impact of Taglit-Birthright-Israel, 2010 update. Cohen Center for Modern Jewish Studies, Brandeis University.

Sasson, Theodore, Charles Kadushin and Leonard Saxe (2012) “Trends in American Jewish Attachment to Israel: An Assessment of the “Distancing” Hypothesis, Contemporary Jewry, Springer 30(2-3): 297- 319.

Sheskin, Ira M. 2004. Population Study of the Greater Miami Jewish Community. Greater Miami Jewish Federation.

Sheskin, Ira, and Arnold Dashefsky. 2011. Jewish Population in the United States, 2011. Current Jewish Population Reports. North American Jewish Data Bank. http://www. bjpa.org/Publications/details.cfm?PublicationID=13458

Sznajder, Mario and Luis Roniger. 2012. Shifting Frontiers

172 the jewish people policy institute European Jewry – Signals and Noise: 10 Is there a point of negative inflection?

A paradoxical reality with In the affluent and protected West Paris and North possible negative implications London suburban Jewish neighborhoods, Jewish life is more vibrant than ever, and every week new families In the eyes of many American and Israeli Jews, move into them from other communities. Moreover, European Jews seem to be on a harsh trajectory. Vienna's Jewish community is growing (following an Observing recent negative economic, political and influx of Hungarian Jews), Berlin’s Jews have launched anti-Semitic developments in Europe, many of the Jewish Voice from Germany – a publicly-funded them question the future thriving of Jewish life on quarterly periodical with a circulation of 50,000 – the old continent. Budapest's Jews have opened an effervescent Israeli For their part, European Jews, on the whole, Cultural Center, and kosher restaurants, centers enjoy comfortable day-to-day lives, and their for Talmudic studies and Jewish museums open representative bodies have not felt the necessity continuously in European capitals. Viewed from to launch any emergency pan-European or even Europe, Jewish life is enjoying a renaissance that does local strategic thinking process in response not signal any imminent disaster. to these developments. Since they do not Beside this apparent ‘business as usual’ discourse, encounter state-sponsored anti-Semitism it may, however, be possible that Jews are much or barriers to their social and professional more pessimistic about the future than they fulfillment, they trust their governments to claim. According to a large-scale survey on Jews' protect them and believe that – provided they experiences and perceptions of anti-Semitism lower their Jewish profile – they can comfortably commissioned by the EU's Fundamental Rights remain in Europe. Agency (FRA), the official results of which will be At the same time, and this may partially explain published in October 2013, Jews all over Europe the lack of urgency in the behavior of the local feel insecure. An EU delegation representative in Jewish leadership. Israel recently presented basic results and trends that emerge from this survey:

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 173 • More than one in four (26%) of Jewish visitors attended the Jewish Agency’s Aliyah Fair respondents claim to have experienced anti- in Paris this past May. Beyond the Aliyah of 50,000 Semitic harassment at least once in the 12 French Jews since 1990 (10% of French Jewry), new- months preceding the survey, and one in immigrant associations claim there are some 20- three (34%) had experienced anti-Semitic 30,000 additional French Jews who live part of the harassment over the past 5 years. 5% of all year in Israel, but for convenience – and in order to Jewish respondents said that their property avoid Israeli bureaucracy – prefer not to take Israeli had been deliberately vandalized because citizenship. they were Jewish while 7% of respondents had We lack reliable sociological surveys to tip the experienced some form of physical attack or balance to one or the other opinion about this threats in the last 5 years. complex and paradoxical reality. But from a • In three of the nine nations surveyed (namely prudential policy planning perspective vis-à-vis the Belgium, France and State of Israel and world Jewry, our position is that Hungary), between 40 European Jewish life has quite possibly reached a and 50% of respondents negative inflexion point. In Belgium, said they had considered France, and We have been tracing the larger ideological and emigrating from their Hungary, social currents in Europe: the demise of the country of residence between 40 multicultural paradigm, the decline of the value because they did not feel and 50% of of family autonomy and the increasing view of the safe there.1 respondents state as parens patriae, economic decline and said they had Henryk Broder, the political turmoil, and the centrality of secularist considered foremost Jewish journalist ideology. For this reason we follow, however emigrating in Germany and one of cautiously, the pessimistic observers that fear the most widely-read – beyond sporadic anti-Jewish violence already columnists in the general evident in France, Scandinavia, Hungary, Belgium press there declared in a and Holland – a rejection of Jewishness and recent interview that if he were younger, he would its subtle political and legal ejection from the leave Europe. He is not the only Jew who thinks public sphere. Such a loss of status may lead the future is elsewhere and, indeed, many of the organized Jewish communities into a vicious sons and daughters of European Jewry have already spiral of successive social marginalization left Europe for North America or Israel. Some 200- (chosen assimilation of the wider community, 300 Jewish families of French origin have recently and self-segregation of the core engaged Jewish immigrated to Montreal, and at least 120 families community), parochialism, disengagement of to London. On Manhattan's Upper West Side, quality leadership and ultimately, communal there are two congregations of French Jews.2 5,000 decline.

174 the jewish people policy institute The following pages explore and analyze recent is already proscribed in Poland, Switzerland, global, regional and national shifts that may Sweden, Norway, and Iceland – resting on pave the way for the further emergence and animal rights claims; development of this process. We identify possible • The abolition of eternal cemeteries (in points of intervention and propose activating local Switzerland and Belgium) – resting on and international bodies to confront negative environmental claims; trends. • The rejection of requests to accommodate Recent Developments conflicts with the Jewish calendar in scheduling public examinations (in France and Against the background of demographic shifts, Switzerland) – resting including the mass migration of non-European on a claim of church/ populations to Europe, the recent attempt to state separation;3 restrict rights to normative Jewish practice there The larger could be viewed as the latest juridical/political • The rejection of identity aspect of a larger identity backlash against multi- requests by Shabbat backlash cultural policies. While apparently directed mainly observant Jews for against against Muslims, this new and vigorous opposition non-electric entry multi-cultural to particularist religious practices also profoundly access in private policies is affects the status of Judaism and may, in the long condominiums (in directed mainly term, pose a serious challenge to the future thriving France) – resting on 4 against Muslims of organized Jewish communities in Europe. security claims; Even if each discrete restriction on traditional • The reconsideration Jewish life appears to be anchored in universal of traditional public values and in the interests of general societal good, funding of Jewish their cumulative effect does not bode well. They cultural institutions (in France and other include: countries) – resting on equity claims; • The attempt to ban circumcision in Germany • The increasing state interference in the internal (so-called ‘intactivist’ movement has also operation of Jewish day schools (all over pushed for a ban in Denmark, Austria, Europe) – resting on ethnic non-discrimination the United Kingdom, and other European claims. countries) – resting on children’s rights and Taken together, the effect on the daily life of medical claims; traditionally observant Jews is significant and • The attempt to ban ritual slaughter Shechita( , marginalizes them from the general society. along with Halal) in Holland and France, which

the jewish people policy institute 175 The Circumcision Affair: benefits of newborn male circumcision a Case Study outweigh the risks, but the benefits are not great enough to recommend The circumcision affair in Germany that began with universal circumcision.” a ruling in a Cologne court, made public on June 26, The AAP policy statement, published in August 2012 and ended – temporarily – in the Bundestag 2012, says the final decision should “still be left to on December 10, 2012, illustrates how a single parents to make in the context of their religious, ruling of a local court could potentially drastically ethical and cultural beliefs.” destabilize the Jewish continuity in Europe. Questioning the preconceptions of the debate’s It seems that Germans have cultural predispositions different stakeholders, to consider "infringement of bodily integrity" of an JPPI, in August 2012, issued infant to be worse than negating its parents' right Taken together, a comprehensive policy to freedom of religion. This may be questioned the effect on paper presenting some theoretically, but practically this kind of attitude the daily life of analytical questions, policy makes Jews feel uncomfortable in Germany. traditionally dilemmas, and communal From a policy planning perspective, it is of interest observant implications associated to observe the organized Jewish response to this Jews is with the attempt, and affair: significant and proposing directions • Europe's main Orthodox rabbinical body urged marginalizes for local, pan-European, Jews in Germany to uphold the commandment them from the international and Israeli to circumcise newborn sons regardless of general society policy responses.5 the Cologne court’s ruling. Rabbi Pinchas Anti-circumcision Goldschmidt, president of the Conference of advocates deny they are motivated by anti-Semitic European Rabbis, called the court decision "one or anti-Islamic feelings. The issue, they say, is of the gravest attacks on Jewish life in the post- children's rights. One survey, taken last year, found Holocaust world." Stephan Kramer, secretary that 60% of Germans consider it genital mutilation, general of the Zentralrat (Central Council and most German medical groups, including the of Jews in Germany), said, "the brit [mila] is German Pediatric Association, condemns male fundamental for our religion. If this is put into circumcision as bodily injury without health legal jeopardy, then we have to reconsider benefits. In contrast, the American Academy of whether we can stay in Germany or not." Pediatrics delivered the following statement: • Israel's Ashkenazi chief rabbi travelled to “After a comprehensive review of the Berlin and, after meeting different parties scientific evidence, the American without coordination with the local Jewish Academy of Pediatrics found that the leadership, intervened in a way that was

176 the jewish people policy institute perceived by local Jews as highly intrusive and number reached 75% following the vote. counterproductive. The German ambassador • The case continued snowballing in Israel was summoned to the Knesset to internationally.8 According to a survey explain his country's policy and various published on March 2013, about 45% of Britons Israeli politicians denounced the anti-Semitic favor banning Jewish ritual slaughter and 38% 6 dimension of the ruling. favor banning non-medical circumcision.9 • American Jewry didn't stay idle and, as part As a matter of policy planning, and as the attempts of the effort, a bipartisan group of 20 U.S. to regulate Jewish rituals gain momentum, it is members of Congress sent a protest letter to worthwhile considering whether the approaches 7 the German ambassador in the United States. and methodologies currently employed by • Following Jewish and Muslim protests, both Jewish communities – winning short-term votes local and international, Chancellor Angela and attaining back-door Merkel was quoted as saying in a closed agreements but not It is worthwile meeting of her Christian Democrats (CDU): "I always engaging on the considering do not want Germany to be the only country wider shifts in public whether in the world where Jews cannot practice opinion – will protect attaining their rituals. Otherwise we will become a Jewish practices over the back-door laughingstock." Some people took Merkel's long term. agreements will statement to indicate that she was more Do these assaults on the be enough to concerned with Germany's image than with foundations of Jewish life protect Jewish the effect of the ruling on Germany's Jews. reveal attitudes of "Jewish practices over • Following the personal and decisive involvement rejection"? For Joshua the long term of Chancellor Merkel, the Bundestag adopted Hammer, an American legislation legalizing circumcision on December reporter of Jewish descent 10, 2012. But while the circumcision crisis based in Berlin, "the court was belatedly resolved by a government still judgment and ensuing anti-circumcision backlash acting out of traditional guilt and feeling of reinforced the notion that many Germans regard responsibility to the Jews, the attitudes prevailing Jews – and Muslims – as outsiders, clinging to among the younger generation of German backward, unsavory rituals and beliefs."10 German politicians suggest that the Merkel government Muslims, many of whom already feel like second- may be the last to feel a special relationship with class citizens there, were also incensed. Ali Demir, Israel and the Jews. More disturbingly, if before chairman of the Islamic Religious Community, said the Bundestag decision, the rate of Germans that the ruling would make it more difficult for who opposed circumcision was 45%, this Muslims to assimilate into German life.

the jewish people policy institute 177 Mega-Trends and The rate accelerated rapidly after the lethal attack Deep Cultural Causes in Toulouse on March 19, 2012 by a French-born Jihadist of Algerian descent. Anti-Jewish hostility Though probably not intentional, this has different faces. Whereas in countries like France marginalization phenomena are the result of a and Sweden anti-Semitism is fueled by Muslim series of interconnected demographic, political, elements and rationalized as a response to Israeli sociological, cultural, and economic developments policy in the territories, in Greece and Hungary it that affect all of Europe and have particular fallout draws on calls for ethnic purity and nationalism. on European Jewish communities. There is indeed sporadic anti-Jewish violence in France, Scandinavia, Belgium, Germany, 1. Economic decline, political turmoil, Ukraine, and Holland. In Hungary, public anti- anti-Semitism Semitic rhetoric has up-surged to a degree not First and foremost, the seen in Europe after the Second World War and old continent is in bad is accompanied by anti-Jewish vandalism and economic and political sporadic violence, which had been directed against First and shape. Populist and the chief rabbi himself. foremost, the far-right parties have Beyond violence that hurts specifically old continent emerged as the third- recognizable Jews, political anti-Semitism – the is in bad strongest – sometimes main threat to Jewish continuity – is, unfortunately, economic second – political actors gathering force. Popular parties often affiliated and political in several countries, and with the reactionary extreme-right, which espouses shape anti-Semitic discourse nationalism, anti-Muslim xenophobia and spreads accordingly. As sometimes anti-Semitism, are taking hold in major a result of budget cuts, political arenas. This is already the case with the but also of pressure to neo-Nazi parties in Greece, Latvia, Austria, Ukraine, provide similar assistance to other minorities, the and Hungary. And the Italian popular comedian, traditionally high level of public funding of Jewish Beppe Grillo, leader of the Five Star Movement institutions has declined. Studying European (MoVimento 5 Stelle), uses anti-Semitic rhetoric. history, Fernand Braudel (1902-1985) found that as a general rule every major anti-Jewish persecution 2. Tolerance threshold and reaction in Europe was preceded, accompanied or followed against cultural transformation by a severe economic crisis.11 Indeed, anti-Semitic incidents in Europe increased by more than 30% in Multiculturalism in Europe started in Great Britain 2012. In France, anti-Semitic incidents increased by in the mid-1960s. Governments (especially in Great 58% in 2012, with a staggering 96 violent attacks. Britain, Germany, and Scandinavia) attempted

178 the jewish people policy institute to facilitate integration of new ethnic groups by 3. The European secularist ideology incorporating their modes of cultural/religious From its early colonial days when English and difference into national society. However, since the German settlers came in search of religious early years of this century, and certainly since the freedom, America has been profoundly influenced terrorist attacks of September 2001 in the United by religion. That influence continues in American States and July 2005 in London, multiculturalism culture, social life, and politics. According to a 2009 has faced mounting criticism and has gradually Gallup survey, 65% of Americans said that religion been sidelined by a new ‘post-multiculturalism’ plays an important role in their lives, compared to considerably more hostile to certain practices 13% in France, 25% in Italy, and 34% in Germany.13 associated with ethnic minorities and immigrants.12 Consequently, the culture of the United States is As long as Jewish ritual slaughter and circumcision very different from that were carried out on a very small scale, they were of Europe. In America, As a reaction to not regarded as a public policy issue worthy with the importance in this demographic of attention, and were tolerated under special its history of dissenting shift, popular arrangements. The scaling-up of these practices Protestantism, freedom of voices advocate as a result of the growing Muslim presence in religion is conceived of in a return to several European countries now seems to require terms of the family lifestyle ‘European core official regulation. Opposition to these practices, and bringing up one's values’ while as of now, seems to be directed not toward Jews in children in accordance nationalist and particular, but rather toward Muslim populations. with one's beliefs. In Christian parties Islam is in the process of becoming a major Europe, however, religion gain substantial component of the European cultural landscape, came to be seen as influence with an increasing number of Muslims holding negative and ever since leading public and private positions. As a reaction the Enlightenment and to this demographic shift, popular voices advocate the French Revolution the aim of liberty in regard a return to ‘European core values’ while nationalist to religion is to break free from the controlling and Christian parties gain substantial political Church.14 Thus, if personal and family religious influence. Muslims are not going to return to their freedom is fundamental to America's value system, countries of origin, so they are asked to adopt a it is much less so in Europe. What is central is low profile, adapt to the European ethos, and to personal dignity, including the dignity of children. privatize their ethnic and religious practices. The Analyzing recent conflicts between European ban against minarets in Switzerland, which was liberal ideals and Semitic religious practices may supported by 57.5% at the polls, and the burqa help identify trends and anticipate potential ban in France can be seen as expressions of this developments. The conclusions of Professor assimilationist political determination. Cecile Laborde, who conducted a comparison

the jewish people policy institute 179 between contemporary Anglo-American and (civic loyalty to the community of citizens), French political theory, is worth mentioning here. especially as conceived in the French political Observing the intellectual debate around the 2004 tradition. According to the French conception of ban on religious symbols in French public schools the Social Contract (Rousseau), one gives all of (a ban aimed at stemming the increased prevalence one's powers and rights to the volonté génerale and of Muslim head scarves and that incidentally one receives back civic rights, not natural rights. In also encompassed Jewish kippot and Catholic the predominant political philosophy in America, crucifixes), she claims that opponents of religious that of John Locke and Jefferson, in contrast, one practice justified their positions based on three key retains one's natural rights and only gives the state French republican ideals: (1) individual autonomy, the power to protect them. In response to the to argue that women massive influx of Muslims, the state's secularist must be emancipated attitude has been strengthened in France as Jews are from oppressive forms of cultural patrimony. faced with an religious beliefs; (2) secular impossible equality, to suggest that a 4. Refusal of Jewish particularism choice: they religion-free public sphere are asked to If, in America, young Jews of the current is the best way to show assimilate, but generation have gently integrated their respect to all citizens the environment Jewishness into their multifaceted identity, in regardless of their religion; emphasizes Europe Jews still live according to the binary (3) national cohesion, to primordial identity that characterized previous generations denounce religious signs ethnic of American Jews. Like the grandparents of as conspicuous symbols differences today's American Jews, even the European of divisiveness and of Jews who have very little in the way of Jewish insufficient integration of ethnic capital, who knew little or nothing of minorities into the national community.15 Jewish languages, written texts, and cultural If Laborde is correct, the opposition to religious expressions, have a sense of being viscerally, dress, rituals, and practices is not an incidental even tribally linked – positively or negatively – conflict between the value of religious freedom to their Jewish ancestry. Even if young European and the bodily integrity of children or the rights Jews do not experience any impediment to their of animals that can be resolved by conciliation. educational, occupational, or social mobility, Instead, these rituals will be increasingly their Jewishness is a key element of their identity perceived as threats to the national ethos and – and Jewish belonging is never a trivial issue. In to its core values of Equality (secular neutrality practical terms, Jews are faced with an impossible inthe public sphere), Liberty (individual choice: they are subliminally asked to assimilate, autonomy and emancipation) and Fraternity but the environment emphasizes primordial

180 the jewish people policy institute ethnic differences between non-Jews and Jews Implications for Jewish and does not allow them to do so easily. Communal Life Built following centuries of bloody ethno-religious We started this chapter by presenting two and national conflicts, the founding ethos of the perspectives, one optimistic and one pessimistic, European Union is that strong ethno-religious regarding maintaining a Jewish way of life in and national identities are better avoided. Jewish Europe. In the light of the broad social and cultural particularism is regarded with suspicion. Nicolas context we discussed, we can perhaps understand Sarkozy's successor as leader of the UMP liberal this reality in all of its complexity and present both party and current French opposition leader, Jean- perspectives as two sides of the same coin. Indeed, François Copé, whose mother is of Jewish Algerian it seems that in the wake descent and whose father is of Jewish Romanian of the developments ancestry, illustrates this pressure to disengage from described above, the Jewish ‘assigned' Jewishness in order to make one's way to Jewish communities communities national political leadership. He felt the need to have become polarized. have become declare, "[his] community of reference is not the On one side, a small polarized, they Jewish one but the French one." Whereas Judaism as minority, which includes are becoming a culture is sometimes praised and celebrated, the the Orthodox and ultra- less and less ethnic, collective, and communitarian dimensions Orthodox, lives a vibrant capable of of Jewishness are repudiated. All over Europe, Jewish life and has engaging in Jews are increasingly encouraged to privatize their become more committed future-oriented identity and avoid emphasizing their Jewishness. and connected to its strategic This has already been the rule for the last two Jewishness. At the same thinking hundred years, but with the demographic shifts time there is another and the massive influx of Muslim populations, this group that seeks integration into the space of expectation of 'voluntary amnesia' is becoming national and public life. This group attempts mandatory in the public sphere. to lower its Jewish profile and to detach itself, Given this wider context, we do not yet know culturally and socially from Jewish institutions. whether the Jews are what we could call ‘collateral As a result, Jewish communities have become damage’ of a backlash aimed against the increasing weakened and are becoming less and less capable Muslim presence, or the victims of a European of engaging in future-oriented strategic thinking. nationalistic resurgence that specifically targets All over Europe but especially in the United Jews as well as Muslims. Kingdom and France, which are home to 80% of Western Europe's Jews, we find the expression of this polarization. In order to avoid friction with

the jewish people policy institute 181 their environment, Jews take various steps – the As mentioned earlier, families prefer to relocate more practicing Jews relocate in self-segregated to neighborhoods in which their children can neighborhoods, the more idealistic ones make attend schools along with sufficient numbers Aliyah, and the most ambitious ones quit Europe of other Jewish children, and preferably with for more promising horizons. a low Muslim presence. Moving is never easy This state of affairs sends two important messages and if people decide to relocate, this certainly to world Jewry. First, that the European Jewish indicates a discomfort. leadership may not be sufficiently professionally 2. International relocation. European Jews are equipped to organize itself on the Pan-European fervent Zionists and Israel has the potential plane and deal with the huge challenges it is to become the relocation destination for confronting. Second, many. Unfortunately, as shown in JPPI's Leaders could based on the high 2011-2012 Annual Assessment,16 there is as find in this motivation to emigrate, yet no Israeli political determination to problematic Israeli policy makers and set up appropriate structures to ease the situation a American communal professional and educational integration of window leaders could find in this new immigrants from non-Russian speaking of opportunity problematic situation a European countries. Solutions that have been for Aliyah window of opportunity proposed to improve Israeli capabilities in this for Aliyah of a well- field fall into four categories: qualified population. 1. Removing bureaucratic barriers, such as those involved in gaining recognition of foreign degrees and professional licenses, and a reexamination of the military Recommendations: Challenges enlistment regulations (for instance, and Possible Jewish Responses making the compulsory military draft law more flexible) by setting up an inter-ministerial committee/national Emigration challenges: Will the Jews leave authority charged under a cabinet Europe? mandate. Benefiting from relatively high social, professional, 2. Significantly improving the absorption and economic personal status, most European Jews system in Israel. Creating plans for will in all likelihood remain in Europe. However, we selected cities, towns and communities observe two phenomena: to ensure they include all absorption 1. Internal migration to stronger communities. services – ulpanim, children's education,

182 the jewish people policy institute community activity, and employment. large, even though it is the Europeans who are, at The plan should be implemented by the moment, on the front line. One direction to be specially trained project staff in cities investigated for an effective executive body could with high concentrations of olim. take the form of a sextet including four Europeans 3. Renewing and expanding ‘community (a leading rabbi, a leading jurist, a communal Aliyah’ projects, including a proactive leader, and one politician of Jewish descent), system of attracting Olim. This also with one American representative and one Israeli includes an effort to remove bureaucratic government official as observers. barriers associated with small and middle World Jewry and Israel: It is important to size businesses setting-up and relocation. distinguish between actions taken by the 4. Establishing an operational body that Jewish people as a integrates the experience of ‘community whole, with American Confronted with Aliyah’ projects and the lessons learned Jewry’s involvement, new European from attracting and absorbing North and exclusive Israeli developments, American Olim – that can provide a intervention in this matter, European comprehensive solution to those from as they could stem from Jewries should Western Europe, and especially from different considerations investigate the France, who seek to move to Israel. and interests. Herein lies creation of a new, one of the sensitivities Pan-European of the issue: while the Organizational challenges: coordinating vibrancy of European Possible action bodies body Jewish communities will The European Jewish Communities: Confronted be impacted by the future with new trans-European developments, European of Europe and its attitude Jewries, which have traditionally been autonomous toward Muslims, Jews, and Israel, it is also very and separate, should investigate the creation of a likely that – in the case of unfavorable conditions – new, Pan-European coordinating body to deal with the most engaged of the 1.3 million European Jews the current situation. Such a body should include will relocate to more hospitable environments. In both religious representatives and community this context, Israel and North America Jewries may leaders in the common effort to preserve have conflicting interests. fundamental elements of Jewish belonging.17 As such, the appropriate role of American Israeli and American participation in such a pan- and international Jewish secular and religious European body – perhaps as observers – should organizations is clear: they have to support, as not be excluded, since the face of European Jewry they are used to doing, local Jewish organizations also has many implications for the Jewish world at to defend and present in the best professional

the jewish people policy institute 183 manner their legal, medical, rabbinical, and Conclusion historical arguments to judicial and political decision-makers in Europe. International Jewish The campaigns to restrict Jewish rites we are leaders have to be careful to coordinate with local observing today seem to be part of a wider cultural community leaders, and discreetly demonstrate to mega-trend that is not disconnected from the public authorities that local Jews are not alone in political, economic, and demographic European this fight. identity crisis. It is worthwhile considering whether current approaches and strategies utilized by Regarding possible intervention by the State Jewish communities – of winning short-term of Israel, things are even more delicate: it can votes and attaining back-door agreements, but certainly be seen as a foreign state’s interference in not always engaging with wider developments in another country’s affairs public opinion – can protect Jewish practices over and this may place local Public the long-term. There is no certainty that answers Jewish leadership in an intervention and institutions that have been effective in the uncomfortable position. by the Israeli past will adequately fit tomorrow’s challenges. government Although discreet is a delicate diplomatic interventions There is a need to assess existing national and trans- issue that may by Israeli embassies are European communal mechanisms and to launch an exacerbate often useful, a public innovative process to develop a bold vision to meet charges of dual intervention by the Israeli future developments as they emerge. As numbers loyalty government in the local and political influence diminish within some media is a delicate issue European Jewish communities, coordination with that may exacerbate non-European Jewish actors could be considered charges of dual loyalty in order to elaborate a global coordination leveled at European Jews mechanism and propose a comprehensive and and should be considered with caution. professional response. Today, Europe itself is at an inflection point and we do not yet know whether it will become more open to religious diversity or more closed to it. The Jewish people must be prepared for all possible eventualities.

184 the jewish people policy institute Notes Whereas observant Jews cannot anymore go to the synagogue on Shabbat because of the electric access 1. Communication of Ms. Sandra de Waele, First door, there are de facto locked in their private space Counsellor, Head of Political and Press Section of and prevented from accessing public space. the European Union delegation in Israel, at the 4th 5. Maimon, Dov and Nadia Ellis, “The Circumcision International Conference of the Global Forum for Crisis: Challenges for European and World Jewry," Combating Anti-Semitism (28-30 May 2013) in JPPI, August 2012. Jerusalem. Several surveys on anti-Semitic attitudes have been launched in the past, but this one, 6. From a Jewish people perspective, the Israeli conducted by the London-based Institute for Jewish politicians' reactions can be perceived as Policy Research and carried out in nine European counterproductive. See Ellis, Nadia and Dov Maimon, countries is unique because it measured anti- "Israel, don’t capsize the Jewish people’s boat", Times Semitism as perceived by Jews themselves. of Israel, September 10, 2012. 2. See, for example, Molinari, Maurizio, "Manhattan 7. http://waxman.house.gov/sites/waxman.house.gov/ terra promessa degli ebrei in fuga da Parigi", La files/documents/UploadedFiles/Letter%20on%20 Stampa, March 13, 2013. Circumcision%20in%20Germany%202012.08.08.pdf 3. Such an exceptional arrangement that is working 8. For a presentation of the diverse national legislation satisfactorily can be seen in Italy's "Concordato" with regarding circumcision, see the comprehensive the Jewish Community, which grants Jews the right to Australian report: Non-Therapeutic Male Circumcision, abstain from working and/or going to school and/or Tasmania Law Reform Institute, August 2012. taking exams on Saturday and Jewish holidays, while http://www.law.utas.edu.au/reform/documents/ requiring universities and public offices to refrain CircumcisionFinal.pdf from setting exams and other obligations during 9. "Poll: 45% of Britons favor banning shechitah," Jewish Jewish festivals. See Sacerdoti, Georgio, L'Intesa tra Press, March 30, 2013. Stato e Unione delle Comunita' Ebraiche del 1987 e la sua attuazione. http://www.governo.it/Presidenza/ 10. Hammer, Joshua, "Anti-Semitism and Germany's USRI/confessioni/doc/sacerdoti.pdf Movement Against Circumcision," The Atlantic, January, 7, 2013. 4. For a discussion of the human rights dimension of the legal precedents that limit Jewish daily life 11. Braudel, Fernand, The Mediterranean and the of observant Jews in France, including restrictions Mediterranean World in the age of Phillip II, Vol. II, regarding mezuzot, sukkot and intercoms, see Amar, Trans. Sian Reynolds, Suffolk 1982, p. 820 quoted Jacques, "Laïcité 2005 : zones d’ombre et droits de by in Wald, Shalom Salomon, Rise and Decline of l’individu, l'exclusion rampante des juifs pratiquants," Civilizations, Lessons for the Jewish People, Academic Controverses, n° 1, March 2006, p. 176-193. http:// Studies Press, 2013 (Hebrew trans. Yediot Books, www.controverses.fr/articles/numero1/amar1. 2013). htm. This ban is a step up: traditionally, the 12. See Christopher McCrudden, Multiculturalism, secularization process in Europe was accompanied Freedom of Religion, Equality, and the British by a separation between private space, in which Constitution: the JFS case considered (2011) religion expression is allowed, and public space, International Journal of Constitutional Law. in which religious expression should be avoided.

the jewish people policy institute 185 13. www.gallup.com/poll/114022/state-states- importance-religion.aspx.; www.pewforum.org/ Christian/Catholic/During-Benedicts-Papacy- Religious-Observance-Among-Catholics-in- Europe-Remained-Low-but-Stable.aspx 14. See David Martin, A General Theory of Secularization (Oxford 1978). 15. Laborde, Cecile, State Paternalism and Religious Dress Code (August 21, 2011). International Journal of Constitutional Law (I-CON) Vol. 10, No. 2, 398-410. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1913771 16. JPPI 2011-2012 Annual Assessment, pp. 207-209. 17. For a comprehensive presentation of the challenges confronting European Jewries and possible intervention policies, see Maimon, Dov, Background: European Jewry in 2030, JPPI, 2010, p. 63-100.

186 the jewish people policy institute Part Three: Developments to Watch: Religion and Politics in Israel

Israel Faces the Ultra-Orthodox 12 Challenge: Why Now, and What Next?

The integration of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) sector • Why has the ultra-Orthodox issue moved to into the general Israeli society has been at the center the top of the political and social agenda at of the political agenda for over a year now, and is this particular time? expected to grip Israel in the coming months and years • What are the main components of proposed with a relatively high level of intensity. It is a complex changes in the ultra-Orthodox sector’s issue with many important and interconnected sub- relationship with the larger Israeli society? issues, so finding a single quick ‘solution’ that would satisfy all concerned parties is highly unlikely. In • What are the chances of implementing change, principle, the dynamics of Israeli Haredim vis-à-vis and what could facilitate or obstruct steps the wider society involve three key problems: their toward implementation? economic integration as a productive sector that contributes to Israel’s economy; equality in burden Background: 'The Year sharing – meaning, primarily, drafting Haredi youth of the Haredim' for IDF or national service; and reformulating the cultural-religious status quo to diminish the Haredi Israel’s ‘Year of the Haredim’ began with a legal crisis, influence on institutions that impact the lives of other continued with a coalition crisis, and concluded Israeli citizens.1 The rapid demographic growth of the (for the time being) in a political reshuffling that ultra-Orthodox (forecasts estimate that by 2020, 50% holds both challenges and opportunities for of the Jewish first-graders will be ultra-Orthodox) addressing tensions between the ultra-Orthodox reinforces the need for a timely response to these minority and the non-Orthodox majority in Israel. dilemmas. In the absence of appropriate solutions, The legal crisis erupted in February 2012, when the they may prove intractable in the future. Supreme Court2 decided to revoke the extension This paper is an elaboration of some fundamental of the Tal Law, which is the legal basis for Torato issues and how they have developed in the last year: Omanuto [lit. Torah Study is his main occupation]

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 189 arrangement, which exempted (couched as the Knesset’s largest party, joined under the ‘deferment of service’) over 60,000 Haredi Yeshiva leadership of Shaul Mofaz. This surprise move, students from compulsory military duty. The which granted the prime minister a majority of court’s action was the result of an appeal contesting 94 of 120 MKs, was justified by the two leaders the constitutionality of the arrangement allowing in a press conference as heralding a new agenda Yeshiva students to avoid military duty, arguing with four key action items: first among them, as that such an arrangement “violates the right defined by Netanyahu, was “to pass a fair and equal to equality as part of the basic right of human division of the burden to replace the Tal Law”; in dignity.” The Tal Law’s annulment (August 2012) other words, to formulate a new law to replace the effectively toppled the legal structure enabling existing one exempting ultra-Orthodox students the exemption, and at least on its face, obliged from military duty. Following the coalition’s the Israeli government expansion, a commission ‘for equality in the and the IDF to prepare burden,’ headed by Kadima MK Yohanan Plesner, for the induction of many was set up and tasked with formulating the The Plesner thousands of Yeshiva replacement bill. The committee’s term, however, Committee students (in 2011 alone, was brief, ending abruptly in a political crisis after also considered 7,700 individuals, for the prime minister canceled it for undisclosed conscription the first time, formally reasons. Its conclusions, published only after it of Israel’s declared Torah study their was clear that Netanyahu had no intention of Arab citizens main occupation and endorsing them, asserted a key principle, ‘military had their military duty service for all,’ and included a 2016 target draft deferred). The urgent rate of 80% of each recruitment-age cohort in the need to find an alternative Haredi sector. Heavy penalties were also stipulated to the Tal Law – which, on for draft evaders and the learning institutions one hand, would exempt harboring them. The Plesner Committee also the state from a legal obligation it does not want considered conscription of Israel’s Arab citizens, and probably cannot meet without expending declaring that the principle of universal service considerable resources, and on the other hand, should also apply to them. Nevertheless, the would curb the upward trend in the number of Plesner Committee avoided setting specific target annual exemptions – triggered various political numbers for Arab service, suggesting that they maneuvers culminating in the coalition agreement be defined by a future committee set up for that with the Kadima Party (‘the Coalition of 94’ purpose. As mentioned, the prime minister had [Knesset members]) in the summer of 2012. reservations about the committee’s conclusions, In early May 2012, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s finding its proposals exaggerated and “aggressive,” governing coalition was expanded when Kadima, and called for a more consensual and gradual

190 the jewish people policy institute solution to the ‘equal burden sharing’ problem. Why Now? In any case, the dismantling of the Plesner Committee rang in the demise of the short-lived There is no single answer to the question why ‘grand coalition,’ and soon after, Netanyahu called Israeli society has reached its moment of crisis in for early elections. regard to the Haredim at this particular point in time. A confluence of several different factors and The legislative and political crises resulting from circumstances pushed the Haredi question to the the failure to find a Tal Law replacement were top of the agenda, while clearing the agenda of integral to the 2013 elections and the formation other competing issues. of a new coalition government. Haredi parties were not invited into this coalition, the result of The Decline of the Peace Process an ultimatum by the two key leaders: Yair Lapid of the liberal centrist party Yesh Atid (There is a The set of factors behind Future), and Naftali Bennett of the religious-Zionist the ascent of the Haredi Lapid: party Habait Hayehudi (The Jewish Home). In the issue to the top of the I don’t believe negotiations leading to the coalition agreement, agenda certainly includes Shas and both leaders insisted that they would not join the marginalization of Yahadut the coalition unless the Haredi parties (Shas and political/diplomatic HaTorah can sit Yahadut HaTorah) were excluded. Lapid explained: issues, especially the Israeli- in a government “I don’t believe Shas and Yahadut Hatorah can sit Palestinian peace process. that will pursue in a government that will pursue the change for This marginalizationthe change which we have campaigned: changing the criteria process actually began for which we for housing, a core education for all, burden immediately after the campaigned sharing, the requisite cuts in Yeshiva budgets.”3 collapse of the Camp In this, Lapid effectively made changing societal David conference in 2000 arrangements with the Haredim one of the new and the outbreak of the government’s top priorities. The prime minister, Second Intifada, and has strengthened in recent who wanted the new coalition to include the years. A consensus opinion has crystallized in current member parties and the ultra-Orthodox Israeli society that questions the probability of a parties, was forced to come to terms with a reality diplomatic breakthrough vis-à-vis the Palestinian that encumbers him with a political agenda Authority, and of achieving a peace agreement. he never wanted. This new reality also found 67% agreed with the statement, “regardless of expression in the agreements the prime minister which party wins the elections, the peace process ultimately reached with his coalition partners. The with the Palestinians will remain stuck for reasons key points are discussed below. unrelated to Israel, and there is no chance for any progress in the foreseeable future.”4 This consensus

the jewish people policy institute 191 has marginalized the Palestinian issue in favor of and with the two-bloc constellation no longer other topics on the national agenda, allowing a central element in coalition-building tactics, a focus on a more ‘civil’ agenda compared to the ultra-Orthodox have lost their bargaining previous years. This preference has been evident position. This was especially visible in the pact in every sector of Israeli society, but it has been between Yesh Atid and HaBayit HaYehudi, two especially salient among centrist and center-left parties with several political disagreements. They voters who, in previous years, had placed greater managed to locate considerable common ground emphasis on the peace issue. In 2013, they opted on other issues deemed more urgent by their to give priority to the top domestic/internal issues: leaders, allowing them to join forces despite their religion, society, and the economy (80% of Yesh political divide. Atid voters; 51% of all voters).5 This shift not only The Frustration of the Silent Majority impacted the 2013 For a while now, there has been a widespread The perception election results, but also sentiment in the public discourse objecting that a the shaping of the new to what many Israelis regard as ‘minority rule.’ minority rules coalition. Historically, the Different groups have identified this minority the majority political parties tended according to their worldviews: at times it has leads to to align in a right-left been the settlers, whom the Israeli left perceives agitation bloc formation – i.e. as controlling Israel’s Judea and Samaria policies; and demands ‘hawkish’ parties in one at other times, it has been the wealthy, perceived for change bloc and ‘dovish’ parties as controlling Israel’s economic policy; and often, in the other, with the this minority has been the Haredim, who are ultra-Orthodox tipping perceived as patrolling and enforcing a religious- the scales and, thus, cultural agenda in Israel unacceptable to most enjoying kingmaker of its citizenry. This perception that a minority status. Because Haredi parties have traditionally rules the majority invariably leads to agitation focused on sectorial concerns, not showing much and vociferous demands for change, with which interest in external political issues, the political the majority attempts to reclaim its turf and in so arena would often align itself according to their doing forces its own views on the minority. Such needs and demands. In a two-bloc reality, the demands are discernible, for instance, in waves of bloc willing to allow the ultra-Orthodox more pressure on the Knesset to pass laws curtailing the autonomy and to pay them in hard currency for power of the media, the courts, the left, and the their support would win their votes and enable Arabs, all of whom have been accused of twisting the pursuit of that bloc’s political aims, at least up the freedom they enjoy in Israel to impose their to a point.6 With the political issue off the agenda, agenda on the majority.

192 the jewish people policy institute The recent wave, which was largely curbed by The reasons for this trend are not entirely clear. It the government and the Knesset, as well as by is probably the result of the interplay of numerous the increasingly vocal public demand to revise factors, including the rise of individualism; widening arrangements vis-à-vis the Haredim, attests to gaps in Israeli society; the ‘sectorialization’ of a yearning for the hegemonic reinstatement of society, which diminishes the sense of collectivity; the gainfully employed and army-serving Israeli- global trends related to the spread of capitalism Zionist majority over Israeli society as a whole. and the repercussions of the global economic Lapid himself, in a sharp and widely publicized crisis. Ironically, the sense of relative well-being confrontation with Haredi MKs at the opening presently enjoyed by a large portion of Israel society of the Knesset’s 2013 summer session, expressed engenders in these Israelis a stronger desire for a this feeling when he said to Yahadut HaTorah MK resource redistribution that would further benefit Moshe Gafni, "I don't take orders from his honor. them. As Israel boasts of The state stopped taking orders from his honor. its hi-tech pioneers and For that reason you are no longer the chairman of ‘rich and famous’ success the [Knesset] Finance Committee, because we are stories, more and more The Haredi tired of taking orders from his honor." Israelis are seeking a larger share of the pie. A sharp religious- This yearning for control is also at the root of the resentment felt by the cultural agenda demand that the IDF, rather than ultra-Orthodox ‘sucker’ class (frayerim) is unacceptable rabbinical leaders, arbitrate in matters related to – those who do more to most which Haredim are drafted into military service but receive less – toward Israelis and which are granted exemptions to continue the Israeli ordering of religious studies. priorities was at the center of the 2011 summer The Rise of Socio-Economic Issues protests. This sentiment Societal issues have claimed the top of Israel’s helped Yesh Atid garner agenda partly because there was an opening for 19 Knesset seats, and has continued to fuel Lapid’s this new discourse, but also for other reasons. speeches following his appointment as finance Labeled in JPPI’s last Annual Assessment as the minister. He has spoken of an ‘Israeli middle class’ "Revolt of the Undeprived,"7 which culminated comprising families earning up to 20k shekels per with hundreds of thousands of Israelis taking to month – well above the median income in Israel – the streets in a summer of mass protests against who can afford to go abroad “once every two years.” the government’s socio-economic policies, the As mentioned, the shift in public attention to 2011 protest movement was a clear manifestation socio-economic issues partly explains the outcome of this trend. of the 2013 elections; but for the ultra-Orthodox

the jewish people policy institute 193 issue to become so critical in the formulation of between various leaders as they addressed the the new coalition’s agenda, another ingredient was Haredi challenge, an examination of voters’ necessary: the Haredim as a unifying thread that attitudes clearly shows that there were no real gaps ties together disparate controversial subjects. between centrist and leftwing parties. In fact, this is almost the sole area where the will of the majority The Ultra-Orthodox as a Unifying Factor coalesced into a consolidated and clear statement, predicated on the total or nearly total nullification As written in last year’s assessment, “the present of the Haredi exemption from military service; the government and its successors will find it much revocation of economic subsidies that benefit the harder to implement economic and social policies ultra-Orthodox “at the expense” of the general without consulting ‘the people’ first.” And ‘the public; and accelerated calls for Haredi economic people,’ when asked their opinion, whether due participation as a productive segment of the to a principled choice or out of political necessity, population. often give confused and contradictory answers. The social protest moved like a pendulum This aspect of the people’s demands is consistent between the wish to with the findings of nearly every public opinion help out a middle class poll.8 An overwhelming majority of the Israeli that was not always public clearly supports equal burden sharing The majority defined in clear terms, with respect to security and military duty. Israeli of Israelis and the desire to benefit economists and captains of industry have been perceive the and elevate the weaker warning for years that Haredi dependence on state ultra-Orthodox classes. The struggle has support could not last long. In recent decades, as a burden also taken the shape of the ultra-Orthodox society has become one of a political dichotomy. ‘learners,’ in which the employment rate of males The Labor Party spoke over 25 years of age is below 50%, and the poverty on behalf of the protest, rate is extremely high (56%).9 In Israel, the average focusing on the weaker income of ultra-Orthodox households is about classes, education and half that of non-Haredi households. income, while Yesh Atid Under these circumstances, focusing on the ultra- put much more emphasis on the protest as a Orthodox issue in the political arena is a very movement that gave voice to the frustration of tempting proposition for leaders of non-Orthodox young, highly-educated Israelis, whose income was parties. The risk of losing non-Haredi votes as a incommensurate with their expectations. result of an uncompromising demand to deal with In contradistinction, there was almost no political the ultra-Orthodox sector is almost nonexistent – division around the ultra-Orthodox issue. While certainly not for leaders of secular parties (76 % of there were differences of nuance and emphasis the population supported the establishment of a

194 the jewish people policy institute government without Haredi parties.)10 From the Orthodox to win over voters to Meretz, arguing politicians’ perspective, the ability to formulate that “Yachimovich will join the ultra-Orthodox a resounding popular message is an obvious and the Settlers.”12 In their self-imposed isolation advantage. The majority of Israelis perceive the from the rest of society, the ultra-Orthodox could ultra-Orthodox as a burden, whose contribution not find a channel for rapprochement that would to the general good is inadequate, and whose diminish some of the intensity of the alienation demands from other sectors are unjustified. In the and rage directed at them.13 At the same time, religious-cultural context, the ‘year of the ultra- in light of their total dependence on state Orthodox’ could not have come at a worse time subsidies, they found themselves vulnerable to an for the ultra-Orthodox themselves. immediate deterioration of their situation unless Concurrent with the legislative and political crises they were willing to accept the new rules of the described above, several events have taken place game. in the last year or so, which helped to concretize negative images of the ultra-Orthodox in the The Elections and their Results minds of Israelis. Prominent among them was the The results of the January story of an eight-year-old Bet Shemesh girl who In their 2013 Israeli elections were was spat upon for alleged "immodesty," as well as self-imposed a surprise and dictated stories about women being banished to the back isolation, the a new coalitional order. of (illegally) gender-segregated buses to preserve ultra-Orthodox The two parties, Yesh Atid modesty. could not find and HaBayit HaYehudi, a channel to It is, therefore, unsurprising that many of the emerged much stronger diminish the political parties that stressed societal and from the elections and alienation and economic issues in their election campaigns with an immensely rage directed found the uncompromising demand to address significant impact on at them the problem of the ultra-Orthodox sector an the new agenda – as irresistible game. Kadima, led by Shaul Mofaz, long as they remained was anxious to leverage the Plesner Committee, united – placed the which it chaired, into a campaign that demanded ‘burden-sharing’ issue at the center of coalition 11 to “pay soldiers what yeshiva students are paid.” negotiations. The result of these deliberations Yesh Atid posed this question to the government: dictated two major changes. First, a coalition “Where’s the Money?” insinuating that ultra- without any Haredi representation, and in effect Orthodox allocations lacked proper returns for free, at least in theory, from any political dictates Israeli society. The leftwing party, Meretz, used stemming from subordination to the ultra- the Labor Party and Shelly Yachimovich’s, its Orthodox agenda. Second, relatively detailed leader, obvious reluctance to attack the ultra-

the jewish people policy institute 195 coalition agreements were drawn up, which The Test of the Coalition Agreements included a specific commitment to an accelerated At this early stage in the life of the new coalition, it revision of arrangements pertaining to the ultra- is difficult to speak of implementing decisions that Orthodox community. would transform the patterns of relations between It was obvious that, deprived of the key political the ultra-Orthodox and non-Orthodox in Israel. positions they occupied for so long (chair of Nevertheless, the coalition agreements stipulate the Knesset’s Finance Committee; ministerial both principles and resolutions scheduled to take posts in key strongholds such as the Interior place according to an agreed-upon timetable. and Housing Ministries; de facto control of the Monitoring the implementation of such Ministry of Health), the ultra-Orthodox would be understandings in the coming months should unable to directly affect provide a clearer indication of the government’s Some within the new arrangements pace and seriousness of intent in this matter. concerning them. the coalition The first test of the coalition’s earnestness was They could wield some are reluctant passed immediately after Passover, when the indirect influence to ‘burn government met the provisions of the coalition through both civil bridges’ agreement by establishing a ministerial committee activity (demonstrations, with the assigned with writing a bill to replace the Tal non-cooperation) and ultra-Orthodox Law. Chaired by Yesh Atid minister, Yaakov Perry, preserving existing ties community the Perry Committee (known as the Knesset with parties within the Committee for Equal Burden Sharing, but officially, coalition government ‘the Ministerial Committee on the Integration of reluctant to ‘burn the ultra-Orthodox and Minorities in Military and bridges’ with the ultra- Civil Service, with the Aim of Integrating them in Orthodox community. It the Labor Market and Creating Equality in Burden- is no secret that the prime minister had objected Sharing’) submitted to the government a draft of a to the demand to keep the ultra-Orthodox out proposed new law on May 23, which implements of the coalition, and that he would continue and regulates the recruitment of Haredim to the to try to represent and keep his former (and IDF and civilian National Service, after having possibly future) partners’ interests close to been accepted by all coalition member parties. heart. The means of the struggle mounted by The proposed new law covers the entire range of ultra-Orthodox leaders to counter the planned ‘equal burden sharing’ issues, rather than focusing measures may be very limited, but they are now solely on the revision of the Torato Omanuto free to do so without fear of losing key positions arrangement with the ultra-Orthodox. Thus, it also or coveted budget allocations. addresses reduced mandatory IDF service terms, as well as provides the option of national service

196 the jewish people policy institute for those who do not wish to serve in the IDF. In the For instance, the section on education stipulates initial discussions disagreements emerged, among that the minister of education – a member of Yesh other matters, in regard to the degree of coercion Atid – “will consolidate a ‘core studies curriculum’ to be exerted on those slated for Haredi military [including Math, Hebrew Language, English, and service, and the timetable for implementing the Civics] for the education system within the first six changes (the chairman wished to shorten it from months of the government’s term.” This provision that originally set in the coalition agreement). is, first and foremost, yet another attempt by However, in the end, a compromise agreeable to the state to insist upon ‘core studies’ in ultra- all was found. Orthodox schools – an issue that all previous The establishment and efforts of the Perry attempts to regulate have failed. The state views Committee constitute the first, but certainly not the introduction of a core the last, test of the depth of the changes expected studies curriculum in during Israel’s 33rd government’s term. The coalition ultra-Orthodox schools as Past attempts agreements stipulated in advance that revisions a sine qua non condition to introduce to the Torato Omanuto arrangement be gradual, for the ability of ultra- and regulate a taking effect progressively over at least the next Orthodox youth to mandatory four years – and other agreed-upon changes. In eventually join productive ‘core curriculum’ any case, the move would be initiated during the vocational frameworks in ultra- incumbent coalition’s term, but its final stages are that would contribute Orthodox scheduled to take place during the term of another, to the Israeli economy schools have future coalition; and as long as the move has not and relieve the state of failed been completed, it is possible that a variety of the economic burden of political contingencies could obstruct its progress, permanently supporting or even reinstate former arrangements. a population that chooses to live below the poverty threshold. Key ultra-Orthodox-Related The agreement’s section, ‘Groups and Sectors Economic Changes Advancement,’ stipulates “the government shall address the issue of women’s exclusion and A considerable portion of the coalition agreements examine the exercise of legal means to prevent it between Likud-Beytenu, the senior coalition in the public sphere.” If a decision to employ such member, and its two main partners, Yesh Atid and measures is reached, these will be used primarily HaBayit HaYehudi, are dedicated to transforming to thwart ultra-Orthodox attempts to compel the relationship between state institutions and gender segregation on public bus lines. The section the ultra-Orthodox population. The proposals for on housing, as well the ‘Miscellaneous’ section, change are significant and many, and factor into feature similar – and critical – provisions regarding nearly every provision of the coalition agreement.

the jewish people policy institute 197 the regulation of government support in the ultra- currently in effect. The agreement stipulates Orthodox sector. These stipulate, “upon submitting that reductions in health insurance and national the budget, the minister of finance will formulate a security payments would also be limited – to a plan for the gradual integration of the 'realization period of seven years – as opposed to the current of earning potential’ criterion, in any benefit, arrangement, which includes no time limitations. In allowance, or exemption granted by government effect, if implemented, the proposed arrangement ministries.” Reliance on would force ultra-Orthodox citizens to face a Under the such a criterion – which much harder decision when choosing between proposed also appears explicitly in employment and Torah study (which bears no arrangement, the section on housing as distinct economic fruit). The cost of not joining the the cost of a substitute for ‘years of workforce would become more onerous, perhaps not joining marriage’ – actually puts even intolerable. the work force the ultra-Orthodox in a would become distinctly worse position The Proposed Change in more onerous, in terms of eligibility for the Military Service benefits and allowances perhaps even The basic policy statement of the new government if they opt to study in a intolerable stipulates that it will “take steps to increase equality yeshiva rather than seek in burden sharing…whether through military or employment. We should civil service.” The agreement’s appendix asserts that note, however, that “Israeli society is ripe” for a shift “toward bringing implementation of this provision is not immediate, the Torah-studying sector within the sovereign but rather one of ‘progressive implementation,’ sphere.” This Appendix outlines the agreed-upon and thus may not be fully put into practice. Even if plan to phase out the Torato Omanuto scheme, it is, it is always possible to reverse under different and the gradual transformation of ultra-Orthodox political circumstances in the future. society from economic dependence to greater The coalition agreement contains many more productivity commensurate with other population provisions that limit direct or indirect government sectors. support of the ultra-Orthodox sector. For instance, The plan asserts the universal duty to serve, while it asserts that the Ministry of Welfare will no longer affirming the importance and centrality of Torah be allowed to transfer support budgets unless study “as a central value in the State of Israel.” Key they are allocated to “rehabilitation or treatment tenets include: institutions.” It also stipulates that eligibility for daycare discounts (for which yeshiva students are State Authority: The IDF will decide who gets eligible) would be in effect for “up to five years drafted. This provision is a bitter pill for the of support,” rather than the indefinite period Haredim to swallow as it expropriates their

198 the jewish people policy institute control, effectively subjecting the world of Torah even if not fully implemented, leaves certain islets students to state control and priorities. of inequality intact: it fails to address the role of Recognition of Cultural Differences: Integration Haredi women, leaving the present situation as is into military or civil service will be carried out (i.e. ultra-Orthodox women are exempt from any with utmost consideration of special cultural form of duty, military or civil, and will remain so); characteristics, while attempting to provide it enshrines the special status of ‘Hesder yeshivas,’ dedicated programs that would allow the which combine short ultra-Orthodox to remain in ultra-Orthodox military service with environments, even within the state framework, Torah studies; and while Some allege to counter allegations that this is a governmental it does posit the goal of that the attempt to ‘secularize’ the Haredim. “increasing the number of minority groups doing government is Economic Measures: As detailed above, the national service,” it attempting to duty to serve the state will be enforced through refrains from specifying ‘secularize’ the sanctions against conscription evaders, i.e. enforcement measures, Haredim through withholding benefits rather than direct unlike its ultra-Orthodox confrontation. policy. Striking a Balance between Sectors: Concurrent with increasing the ultra-Orthodox’s share of Conclusion the service burden, a parallel initiative (albeit on a much smaller scale) in the Arab sector will be The mounting public interest in burden equality advanced. Allowances and benefits to sectors that and ultra-Orthodox integration issues, the results perform military duty in large numbers (economic of the last elections, the composition of the rewards to those who carry the burden) will also current coalition and the coalition agreement – be offered. all indicate a significant and fundamental change in the relationship between the Haredim and the Progressivity: The steps outlined in the agreement state. Nevertheless, the change process is neither will come into effect over four years. In the interim, immediate nor irreversible. It may be halted at the ultra-Orthodox will enjoy a grace period in various stages, for reasons that include: which they can either join the military, stay in yeshiva, or work. This interim period is designed • A political situation that necessitates a to allow the Haredim to begin the fundamental reversion to the classic agenda of defense and process of social change expected of them if the security policy, pushing socio-economic issues decisions in the coalition agreement are in fact down the state’s list of priorities; and implemented. • A change in the domestic political/coalitional It should be noted that the burden equality plan, situation, which would increase the ultra-

the jewish people policy institute 199 Orthodox parties’ power to thwart the new Assuming that change processes will continue arrangements. Such a change could occur and intensify, several questions remain open and during the term of the incumbent government, include: or as a result of future elections. • What shape will a working ultra-Orthodox Since most measures for effecting the change society take? will come into effect step-by-step, with some • Would it be able to retain its separateness, or only scheduled to commence years from would the integration process inevitably lead now, numerous obstructions may appear that to increased cultural assimilation? impede the progress of change, possibly ending it altogether. Nevertheless, it currently appears • How will Israeli society as a whole deal that, even if there are further delays in the with increasing friction between the ultra- plan’s full implementation, there is a growing Orthodox and the non-Orthodox, which realization in Israeli society (including within would inevitably occur if they were fully the ultra-Orthodox community) that the status integrated in the economic life, defense quo is unsustainable in the long run. We expect system, and the general Israeli society? the change process to continue for the following • Might an economic strengthening of the reasons: ultra-Orthodox society, combined with its • The ultra-Orthodox society’s economic continued demographic growth, lead to yet dependence weighs heavily on the economy, another eruption of social strife, in which as well as on the ultra-Orthodox community the Haredim would be much more powerful itself. actors? • Social change within the ultra-Orthodox society amplifies the power of sub-sectors interested in change (in varying ways and degrees). • The alienation of ultra-Orthodox from the non-Orthodox population greatly diminishes the motivation and willingness of the larger Israeli society to carry the burden of supporting the ultra-Orthodox (economically and in terms of security). The public regards this issue as crucial and is sure to charge anyone standing in the way of reform a hefty political price.

200 the jewish people policy institute Notes 12. Haaretz, 22 October 2012: ‘Meretz Campain: "Yechimovitch will join the Ultra-Orthodox and the 1. In this context, see Dov Maimon & Shmuel Rosner, Settlers’. ‘The Haredi Challenge,’ JPPI, February 2013. 13. The most complex and highly-charged score to 2. Ynet, 21 February 2012: ‘Supreme Court Revokes Tal settle is the one between the ultra-Orthodox and Bill as Unconstitutional; Bill to expire in August’. the Religious-National sector, with which they also have an ideological dispute regarding the role of the 3. Jerusalem Post, 2 March 2013: ‘Lapid: "Haredim in the state, as well as a power struggle for control over jobs Opposition is not a Disaster; Bennett: ‘I Will Keep my and budgets earmarked for religious services. Equally Promise to Him’. painful is the emotional score that they must settle, 4. Tamar Herman and Ephraim Yaar, ‘The Peace Index,’ due to the ultra-Orthodox’s endorsement of Prime December 2012, Israel Democracy Institute. Minister Ariel Sharon’s Disengagement plan. 5. Tamar Herman and Ephraim Yaar, ‘The Peace Index,’ January 2013, Israel Democracy Institute. 6. In effect, most ultra-Orthodox voters identify with the right bloc’s ideology, so that their leaders’ room for political maneuvering has been limited to begin with. The ultra-Orthodox recoiled at the last minute from supporting ‘the stinking trick’ played by Shimon Peres in an attempt to form a government in the early 1990s. But they did support the Sharon government’s Gaza Disengagement plan. 7. ‘Summer 2011 in Israel: The Revolt of the Undeprived: What it was, How it was, what’s left’, Annual Assessment 2011-2012, JPPI. 8. Dror Walter and Hanan Cohen, ‘Public Attitudes toward Yeshiva students’ recruitment,’ Israel Democracy Institute, August 2012. 9. Plessner Committee figures. 10. Channel Ten Opinion Poll, 1 March 2013, Prof. Camil Fuchs and Midgam Ltd. 11. Channel Seven, 26 December 2012: ‘The Demand by Haredi Public Figures to Disqualify Kadima’s Campaign as Inciting is Rejected; Elections Committee: “Kadima’s Campaign is not Incitement”.’

the jewish people policy institute 201

Women of the Wall: Toward 13 Compromise or Continued Conflict

Where we stand Foundation (which currently manages the site), the Ceremonies Esplanade, as well as the new In December 2012, following more than a year of Wall area, which would be under the auspices of constant media coverage of the Women of the a new body that includes representatives of non- Wall (WoW) and their quest to secure the rights Orthodox Jewish streams and of Jewish Diaspora of women to pray aloud, read from the Torah, communities. and wear Tefillin and Tallit at the Kotel, and under The plan, which could take a year and a half to two pressure from American Jews, Prime Minister at a cost of 100 to 200 million shekels to complete Netanyahu tasked Jewish Agency head, Natan (if planned and implemented promptly), received Sharansky, with finding a workable compromise the unanimous, albeit cautious support of all arrangement. Sharansky presented a plan at the Jewish parties involved (the Palestinian Authority beginning of April 2013, according to which the has strongly denounced any modification at the Western Wall (Kotel Maaravi) and its current site). That is until the situation was overturned plaza would be extended to include an area at the end of April, when the Jerusalem District south of the Mugrabi Bridge (i.e., the area around Court ruled that Women of the Wall can pray as Robinson’s Arch), where a section would be built they wish, and that the police have no reasonable to accommodate non-Orthodox Jewish practice, justification to detain them. Following the arrest including mixed gendered, egalitarian prayer. of five women and a police appeal for a three- According to the plan, the new plaza would be month restraining order, Judge Moshe Sobell separated from the current one by the Bridge, ruled that a 2003 Supreme Court decision but they would share an entrance, and both upholding a government ban on women wearing would be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Tefillin and Tallit, or reading aloud from the Torah The Orthodox rabbi of the Kotel would retain at the Western Wall was never intended as a control over the present prayer area but would permanent injunction or to confer criminality on relinquish management of the Western Wall women.

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 203 In the eyes of some activists, Sobell's ruling made Orthodox monopoly over official Israeli Judaism. Sharansky's compromise somewhat superfluous. The second goes to the question: "Whose Wall is it?" At least as far as WoW is concerned. If they could This question goes beyond the day-to-day affairs of pray as they wished at the current Western Wall, the Kotel. It snags the fabric of relations between why be shunted aside to a remote area? Israel and other Jewish communities worldwide. Early in June, the board of the Jewish Federations of North America (JFNA), the umbrella organization Background of 154 Jewish federations, voted unanimously to The road to Sharansky's plan was long. After endorse the Sharansky plan. more than 20 years of activism, utilizing As a result of Judge Sobell’s ruling, Women of public demonstrations, legal challenges, the Wall were granted protection for their Rosh and confrontations with the police (and a very Chodesh services (as was demonstrated in the heated media debate in the last 18 months), WoW services of Sivan and Tamuz), by the same police attracted a crescendo of attention and support. that had arrested them only a month earlier. At the Opposition from the ultra-Orthodox rabbinical first of the two services, 6,000 Haredi seminary girls authorities who interpret how Judaism can be crowded the women's section in protest, and 2,000 practiced at the Wall, and WoW’s insistent refusal Haredi men loudly joined them at the other side of to practice in an alternate location (as suggested the plaza (some of them throwing curses, garbage, by the Supreme Court in 2003), made this struggle chairs, and plastic bottles). On Rosh Chodesh a monthly ritual widely covered by international Tammuz (June 9, 2013), only about 200 Haredi media, with an embarrassing impact on Israel's men showed up to protest and the prayer service image. Images of women under arrest being took place in relative peace. led away from the Kotel not only reflected the non-equal status of non-Orthodox streams and approaches in Israel (unlike the Diaspora), but Developments to Watch the gender-based discrimination and restrictions One has to appreciate the compromises both on Jewish worship also raised questions about the sides of the debate would have to make in state’s democratic character. order for the Sharansky plan to provide a Possible damage to Israel-Diaspora relations was comprehensive solution to the issue: those mainly behind Netanyahu’s tasking Sharansky insisting on a strictly Orthodox Kotel would with finding a solution. But beyond the need for have to adjust to non-Orthodox Jewish practice a practical solution to a practical matter, the Kotel there, and to the consequent state recognition of controversy encapsulates several larger issues that other Jewish streams. On the other hand, those Israel has been brushing aside for decades. First fighting for new Kotel arrangements would also among them relates to the pros and cons of the have to compromise, mainly by accepting a new

204 the jewish people policy institute reality of separation, their being sent to the ‘new’ • If the Sharansky plan becomes moot, will location to accommodate the sensitivities of Minister for Religious Affairs Naftali Bennett the Orthodox establishment. Such compromise attempt to formulate new regulations for the is still necessary. It’s the only path to resolving holy sites, looking for some sort of compromise the WoW issue. But not only that, it would also such as the one WoW agreed to on Rosh establish a Kotel mechanism with the potential Chodesh Sivan and Tammuz (praying with to prevent similar battles in the future – legal Tallit and Tefillin but without reading aloud and otherwise. from a Torah scroll)? Full implementation is far from guaranteed, and many obstacles could still delay or disrupt it. What to Expect Several of them are listed here in question form as ‘developments to watch’ over the next year: Ironically, while the plan was initially conceived to find a solution for WoW's requests, it is now • Will WoW continue backing Sharansky's plan possible that the Orthodox have more of a real after having been granted historic legitimacy interest in its implementation. If the plan doesn’t by the Jerusalem District Court ruling last move forward, in fact, WoW will keep holding the April? right to pray according to their custom every Rosh • If yes, can a reasonable implementation Chodesh at the Kotel. timetable be developed, and can the budget Thus, as implementation planning progresses, for implementation be found? there are three possible scenarios for an ultimate • Also, will the government agree to demonstrate outcome: its seriousness in the interim period until construction is done, by moving forward with Full implementation of the plan within a other parts of the plan, such as proposed changes reasonable timeframe to the administration of Western Wall affairs? This would make the following question an • Construction at the Kotel Plaza is geopolitically important one for further developments: What sensitive: will Palestinian, Jordanian and other percentage of Kotel visitors would prefer the new Muslim resistance to the plan persuade the plaza over the old one? If the number is negligible, government to reconsider? further claims for representation of non-Orthodox • If WoW rescinds its support of Sharansky's streams in Israeli religious life would be rendered plan, will month to month clashes at the more difficult. If, on the other hand, the number is Kotel, following the court ruling, continue, significant, the battle for equality is likely to move and would such clashes interfere with progress to the next stage (i.e. legitimacy in other fields of toward compromise? Jewish practice).

the jewish people policy institute 205 The plan is not implemented If either side demurs and Sharansky's plan gets stuck, one can expect two parallel outcomes: 1) Ultra-Orthodox Jews will keep protesting against WoW, until the government must intervene to calm the situation down and, 2) A new round of legal battles will take place, as the courts will be asked to a) Reconsider the latest ruling, and b) Grant rights not just to WoW, but also to Jews who prefer mixed-gender prayer. The Supreme Court will likely be asked to weigh in on Sobell’s ruling, and possibly reverse its own 2003 decision.

Partial implementation of some kind Such a development is likely to fracture the Sharansky coalition, and make things even more complicated. Consider the following points: Since the latest court ruling didn't solve the problem of non-Orthodox practice, the new section is still needed. However, the Sobell ruling might tempt non-Orthodox entities to insist on representation at the current Kotel area, causing them to drop their support for the new section. Furthermore, if a third section is only partially built and isn't seen as equal (in size and status) to the current sections, more battles are to be expected, and more protests from world Jewry are all but guaranteed.

206 the jewish people policy institute Main Publications of the Jewish People Policy Institute

Rise and Decline of Civilizations, Lessons for the Jewish People, Shalom Salomon Wald, Foreword by Shimon Peres, (English language original published by Academic Studies Press, Boston; Hebrew translation published by Yediot Books, Israel), 2013. Peoplehood and the Distancing Discourse, Background Policy Documents prepared for JPPI’s 2012 Conference on the Future of the Jewish People, JPPI Staff, 2012. Annual Assessment 2011-12, Executive Report No. 8, Introduces JPPI’s Dashboard of Jewish People Indicators, and includes special in-depth chapters: Geopolitical Turmoil in the Middle East; Creating Jewish Meaning in the U.S. and Europe; and Israeli Democracy: Politics and Society; Project Heads: Avi Gil and Shlomo Fischer; JPPI Staff and Contributors, 2012. The Challenge of Peoplehood: Strengthening the Attachment of Young American Jews to Israel in the Time of the Distancing Discourse, Shmuel Rosner and Inbal Hakman, 2012. Policy Recommendations for Strengthening Jewish-Israeli Identity among Children of Israelis Abroad and their Attachment to the State of Israel and the Jewish Community, Yogev Karasenty, 2012. Policy Paper: Absentee Voting Rights for Israelis Abroad, Yogev Karasenty and Inbal Hakman, 2012. 21st Century Global Forces, Their Impacts on the Jewish People, Israel and the United States, Stuart E. Eizenstat, Foreword by Martin Gilbert, 2012. Uncharted Waters, Stuart E. Eizenstat, (a special edition for the 2011 Israeli Presidential Conference), 2011. Annual Assessment 2010, Executive Report No. 7, with special in-depth chapters: Systematic Indicators of Jewish People Trends, De-Legitimization and Jewish Youth in the Diaspora, The Impact of Geopolitical Shifts and Global Economic Developments on the Jewish People, JPPI Staff and Contributors, 2011. Jewish Demographic Policies, Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora, Sergio DellaPergola, 2011. Mega-Trends and their Impact on the Jewish People, Prepared for JPPI’s 2010 Conference on the Future of the Jewish People, JPPI Staff, 2010. Toward 2030: Strategies for the Jewish Future, Background Documents for the 2010 Conference on the Future of the Jewish People, JPPI Staff, 2010. 2030: Alternative Futures for the Jewish People, Project Directors: Avi Gil and Einat Wilf, 2010. The Triangular Relationship of Jerusalem, Washington and North American Jewry, Background Documents for JPPI’s 2009 Glen Cove Conference, JPPPI Staff, 2009. Muslim Anti-Semitism: The Challenge and Possible Responses, Emmanuel Sivan, 2009. Background Policy Documents for the Inaugural President’s Conference: Facing Tomorrow, JPPPI Staff and Contributors, 2008. A Strategic Plan for the Strengthening of Jerusalem, JPPI Staff, 2007. Background Policy Documents for the 2007 Conference on the Future of the Jewish People, JPPI Staff, 2007. Annual Assessments 2004-2011-12. Institut de Planification d’une Politique pour le Peuple Juif, Rapport Annuel du JPPPI 2005/2006, Le Peuple Juif en 2005/2006, Entre Renaissance et Declin, Special edition in French, JPPI Staff and Contributors, 2006. The Jewish People between Thriving and Decline, To succeed, large resources, judicious coping with critical decision and careful crafting of long-term grand-policies are needed. The full volume contains analyses of the major communities around the world and in-depth assessments of significant topics. JPPPI Staff and Contributors, 2005. China and the Jewish People: Old Civilizations in a New Era, Shalom Salomon Wald, Strategy Paper, 2004. This is the first strategic document in the series: Improving the Standing of the Jewish People in Emerging Superpowers without a Biblical Tradition. Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council:

The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Co-Chairs incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. The mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies Stuart Eizenstat of the Jewish people and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning Dennis Ross on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Irina Nevzlin Kogan Associate Chair people is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. on behalf of Nadav Foundation Leonid Nevzlin JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing their Jerry W. Levin Members of the Board potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works toward developing professional strategic and as President of UJA Federation of New York Elliott Abrams long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future of the Jewish Irwin Cotler People. JPPI provides professionals, decision makers, and global leaders with: Ratner Family Sami Friedrich Charles Ratner Dan Halperin • Surveys and analyses of key situations and dynamics Steve Hoffman as Chairman of the JAFI Budget • “Alerts” to emerging opportunities and threats Alan Hoffmann and Finance Committee David Kolitz • Assessment of important current events and anticipated developments Vernon Kurtz Natan Sharansky • Strategic action options and innovative alternatives Morlie Levin • Policy option analysis as Chairman of the JAFI Executive Bernard-Henri Lévy • Agenda setting, policy recommendations, and work plan design Paul E. Singer Glen Lewy Judit Bokser Liwerant on behalf of the Paul E. Singer Foundation Isaac Molho JPPI is unique in dealing with the future of the Jewish people as a whole within a methodological framework of study and policy development. Its independence is assured by its company articles, The Judy & Michael Steinhardt Foundation Steven Nasatir Avi Pazner with a board of directors co-chaired by Ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross - both have James Tisch Jehuda Reinharz served in the highest eschelons of the U.S. government, and Leonid Nevzlin in Israel - and composed as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors John Ruskay of individuals with significant policy experience. The board of directors also serves as the Institute’s Doron Shorer Professional Guiding Council. Jerry Silverman Our thanks to UJA Federation of New York, the Jewish Federation of St. Louis, Ted Sokolsky the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, Alan Solow the Jewish Federation of Cleveland, Michael Steinhardt Alex Grass z"l and Jack Kay z"l Aharon Yadlin for their support of this project. President and Founding Director Avinoam Bar-Yosef

Academic Counselor Suzanne Last Stone

Projects Coordinator Ita Alcalay Annual Assessment No. 9 2012-2013 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute

ANNUAL ASSESSMENT

JPPI's Dashboard for the Past Year: Threats and Opportunities for the Jewish Civilization

THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. www.jppi.org.il Givat Ram Campus • P.O.B. 39156 Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040

ISBN 978-965-7549-08-7