Oil magazine no. 27/2014 - Targeted mailshot T 4 N . 0 o 0 u E U w R m O h S b v b e o r e e a a 27 r r r N l r O d V E M B e E R 2014 l magazine e n EDITORIAL i z a g a m Eni quarterly Year 7 - N. 27 November 2014 Authorization from the Court of Rome After the sheikhs: The coming No. 19/2008 dated 01/21/2008 The world over a barrel n Editor in chief Gianni Di Giovanni n Editorial committee collapse of the Gulf monarchies Paul Betts, Fatih Birol, Bassam Fattouh, Guido Gentili, Gary Hart, Harold W. Kroto, he entire Middle East region and East situation extremely well, puts Alessandro Lanza, Lifan Li, e nyone who has anything to cially the United States, the United Kingdom and the n i z a g a Molly Moore, Edward Morse, m also North Africa appear to be forward the theory - difficult to NOVEMBER 2014 Moisés Naím, Daniel Nocera, do with oil must read European Union; the armed forces; the secret police; The Carlo Rossella, Giulio Sapelli world in the midst of a serious crisis. implement but not Utopian - of an Christopher M. Davidson’s and the backing of many citizens, a rich “nomen- over T n a Scientific committee barrel The epicenter, this time, is Syria and international conference, a sort 2013 book After The Sheikhs: clatura” that enjoys the economic privileges that oil Geminello Alvi, Antonio Galdo, Raffaella Leone, Marco Ravaglioli, Iraq, where a civil war is raging and of new Congress of Vienna. The Coming Collapse of The and the regime bring. Giuseppe Sammarco, Mario Sechi, Number 27 ISIS is having an increasingly It is a suggestion that governments Gulf Monarchies. Davidson There were, however, pockets of well organized dissent, 4.00 EUROS Daniela Viglione, Enzo Viscusi teaches Middle East politics especially after the explosion of the Islamic State. ISIS n Editorial team destabilizing effect. In addition, the should embrace in an urgent effort Coordinator: Clara Sanna in the School of Govern- has not yet touched the monarchies, but Islamic faith tensions in Egypt, instability in Libya by GIANNI to try mediation. However, it Luisa Berti, Evita Comes, ment and International Af- is spreading among the immigrants and the black flags Rita Kirby, Simona Manna, and the precarious political situation DI GIOVANNI appears that new conditions are Alessandra Mina, Serena Sabino, fairs at Durham University. The author of several im- of the militants have already reached the border between Giancarlo Strocchia in Tunisia appear to be equally alarming. required, starting with renewed relations pAortant books and numerous scholarly articles, he writes Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which traditionally has been pen- n Authors In the background are oil and control between the West and the Arab World and, Giuseppe Acconcia, Methaq Al about the region with considerable authority. And so we etrable and impossible to control. Fayad (Ag. Nova), Amer Al Sabaileh, of the enormous energy resources that in this context, the resumption of an initiative must pay close attention to the conclusions reached in It is not the first time that autocratic regimes feel that Daniel Atzori, Tahar Ben Jelloun, CARLO ROSSELLA Bill Farren-Price, Ibrahim Kalin, this region holds and on which the destinies by Europe, rarely active in the region over the is a journalist and executive. his latest work. The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and Giorgia Lamaro (Ag. Nova), of the entire industrialized world depend. years, to be more involved in the Middle East. He has been the head its five neighbors, the Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman Fabio Squillante, James Hansen, of La Stampa, Panorama, Nicolò Sartori (IAI), Paradoxically, those riches are at the same The United States has an opinion too: Harold and Bahrain) have been governed for many years by au- Mohammed Shareef, Grant Summer TG1 and TG5 (TV news Fears are growing, even programs). He is currently tocracies, which, aside from small revolts kept under con- n Infographic time incredible riches and a genuine curse Rhode, the longtime Pentagon analyst, finds The design of the map chairman of Medusa Film, trol by the regimes and secret police, moved on un- for this geographical region. that in order to beat the jihadists, America in the palaces of Riyadh. ISIS is of the insert is made by the production company scathed after the Arab Spring. Gianluca Seta-nascuto.com What’s the way out? It’s definitely not through must show that it is committed to winning; of Mediaset. n Photography Though their corruption and authoritarianism is of- a real danger that is threatening AFP, Archivio Eni, Corbis, war. It appears difficult to predict a winner otherwise it will fail. The point of view ten denounced and their imminent collapse often pre- Contrasto-Magnum-Reuters- thrones, big and small alike Redux, Getty Images, Luz-Panos, in the stalemate between the regional powers of neighboring countries should not be dicted, nothing has changed. On the contrary, the Gulf Sie Masterfile, Tips fighting against one another and it looks as overlooked either: countries like Turkey, monarchies have shown themselves to be true bastions n Editing and production Agi, via Ostiense, 72 - 00154 Roma if the armies could be battling a very long time Kurdistan and Israel, whose fears are of stability. Davidson, however, argues persuasively that they are in danger. At the end of the sixties and be- tel. +39 06 51996254 -385 this stability is illusory. And he does so 45 years on from ginning of the seventies, it was Marxism that worried fax + 39 06 51996286 without the prospect of a definitive military expressed by the political systems expert a famous work by Fred Halliday, “Arabia Without Sul- the monarchs, in the form of warfare supported by the e-mail: [email protected] solution. The only practical way forward is and diplomat at large, Avi Pazner. And China www.abo.net tans,” a book forbidden to Ryad as well as to Muscat. U.S.S.R. and China. First came a Marxist rebellion in @AboutOil through diplomacy. should not be forgotten, as it has significant www.facebook.com/ABOaboutoil And he is not the only expert warning of the immi- Dhofar, a governate in the Sultanate of Oman, in 1962. This is the route that Iraq has chosen, as energy interests in the Middle East. A lot n Design nent (in the space of four or five years or perhaps less) Another, next door in Yemen, contributed to the for- Cynthia Sgarallino explained in the pages that follow by Iraqi of space is obviously given to the analysis crisis and the collapse of the monarchies through pop- mation of a Marxist-Leninist state with Aden as its cap- n Graphic consultant Sabrina Mossetto Deputy Minister for Legal Affairs, Mohammed of oil prices—according to Paul Betts of ular revolution. Or about the economic collapse ital. The intervention of the English special forces, the n Graphics and layout Jawad al-Durki, who speaks of “national the Financial Times, OPEC needs to reduce caused by the fall in oil prices created by the enormous SAS, was needed in Oman to defend Dhofar from the ImPRINTing www.imprintingweb.com flow of American gas and oil into international mar- Marxist guerrilla warfare. All the autocrats, except the n Printer reconciliation,” of actions to find agreements prices in order to oppose ISIS. The entire In Italy: Elcograf S.p.A. even with neighboring countries and which, world, and not only the energy world, kets. Important dignitaries in the Emirates, for ex- Shah of Persia, survived this difficult period. Now, how- Via Mondadori, 15 - 37131 Verona ample, are also showing signs of anxiety; in private con- ever, fears are again growing, even in the palaces of In China: Reference Standard as confirmed by the Oil Minister, show is following the Middle East crisis with Limited - Beijing versations and in their writings, they appear over- Riyadh. ISIS is a real danger that is threatening a commitment—in conjunction with other apprehension. Oil simply had to dedicate whelmed by doubt and uncertainty. The boldness of thrones big and small alike. And they are waiting for n Translated by: RR Donnelley OPEC countries—to stabilize the price an issue to it, in the hope of helping to previous times has been lost. Up to now, there have the armed intervention of Obama’s troops, like man- of oil and control exports. Ambassador provide a better understanding of its equally been many reasons for the survival of the Gulf na from heaven. Castellaneta, someone who knows the Middle complex and crucial scenarios. monarchies: the support of western countries, espe- Sent to press on November 7, 2014 Selena Burgo Paper - Naural uncoated C O N T E N T S wood-free paper, 100% recycled, chlorine and acid free. opinions columns Welcome to Oil, a publication of news and 3 Editorial 6 Interview with Iraqi 12 Featured interview 23 Oil industry 32 Kurdistan 41 U.S. 50 Economy THE AND THE NUCLEAR • Publisher eni spa AGREEMENT WITH IRAN ideas for the energy community and beyond. AFTER THE SHEIKHS: Vice Minister Mohammed with Harold Rhode AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE INDEPENDENCE: LEARNING FROM STRUCTURE, FUNDING It provides authoritative analysis of current Chairman: THE COMING COLLAPSE Jawad al-Durki THE AMERICAN ROLE: by Bassam Fattouh TRAPPED IN A DREAM OUR MISTAKES AND WEAPONS by Giuseppe Acconcia Emma Marcegaglia trends in the world of energy, with particu- OF THE GULF MONARCHIES TOWARD NATIONAL PROVING ITSELF A WINNER and Bill Farren-Price by Mohammed Shareef by Molly Moore OF THE CALIPHATE lar attention to economic and geopolitical de- Chief executive officer: 53 Data by Carlo Rossella RECONCILIATION by Daniel Atzori by Antonio Galdo velopments.