34041 The Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Research Abstracts Program of Public Disclosure Authorized Current Studies Public Disclosure Authorized 2004 The World Bank Research Program 2004 Abstracts of Current Studies © 2006 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org Email: [email protected] All rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 10 06 05 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, email [email protected]. ISBN-10: 08213-6457-X ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6457-4 ISSN: 0258-3143 eISBN: 0-8213-6458-8 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6457-4 Contents Introduction 1 Studies by Subject Area 3 Abstracts of Current Studies 9 Poverty and Social Development 11 Health and Population 32 Education, Labor, and Employment 44 Environment 57 Infrastructure and Urban Development 71 Agriculture and Rural Development 80 Macroeconomics and Growth 92 International Economics 95 Domestic Finance and Banking 118 Investment Climate and Private Sector Development 126 Governance and Public Sector Management 131 Bank Research Output 146 iii Definition of World Bank Research Research at the Bank encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across coun- tries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerging pol- icy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the eco- nomic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities—research and economic and sector work—are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Introduction The World Bank’s research is intended to address critical The investigation found that these AAA tasks made issues and problems facing member governments in devel- intensive use of Bank research, with each report they pro- oping and transition economies: How can the govern- duced citing an average of 12 research reports. Moreover, ments of the poorest countries generate enough revenue higher scores for AAA tasks were associated with greater to provide the education and health services essential to use of research. The AAA tasks assessed as highly satis- reducing poverty and promoting growth and develop- factory and most likely to have a policy impact cited an ment? How can poor countries attract investors to build average of 19 research reports, while those with unsat- the infrastructure their economies need? How can they isfactory scores cited an average of less than one. develop systems to bring clean water to the 2 billion How has this analytic and advisory work affected people without it today? How can they train teachers and country programs and projects? All studies on this ques- bring to class the 115 million children who have not yet tion have found strong and positive links between the received any education? And how can rich countries be quality of this preparatory work and the outcomes of persuaded to lower market barriers, helping to reverse the Bank lending. An initial investigation found a particularly decline in export prices for poor countries that has left them strong link between AAA work and rates of return on earning less from trade today than in the 1970s? lending. These are some of the questions that governments face The studies show that research strengthens the foun- and that Bank staff are asked to address in their work. dations and planning of the World Bank’s development And these are the kinds of questions that the Bank’s projects and programs and that preparatory work is asso- research—described in the annual Abstracts of Current ciated with more effective programs. For more informa- Studies—is intended to answer. tion on the studies, see the Report on the World Bank Group Research Program (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Is Research Used in World Bank Lending— 2004, pp. 36–41). The report is available on the Web at and Does It Help? http://econ.worldbank.org/research. World Bank staff use the findings of research in assess- A New Initiative Identifies Where ing countries’ needs and in developing lending pro- New Research Is Most Needed grams. And that use has improved the quality of the programs and projects that are implemented. Prompted by this recent evidence that development These were the findings of recent comprehensive projects are more successful when they incorporate the analysis of the impact of Bank research on its lending pro- findings of research, the World Bank is establishing a coor- grams. To investigate this issue, the World Bank’s dinated program to identify gaps in knowledge about the Research Committee compiled data on analytic and most pressing issues faced by developing and transition advisory (AAA) work, the conceptual work underlying economies. Regular consultations have been established each Bank program or project. The exercise collected between researchers, the Bank offices serving different information on the budgets and reference materials of 226 regions of the world, and specialists who advise govern- AAA tasks from 1998 to 2002—about 15 percent of all ments and Bank staff on programs focusing on particu- AAA activities during that period. Expert review panels lar sectors and ministries. These continuing consultations assigned by the Bank’s Quality Assurance Group assessed are under the aegis of the Bank’s Research Committee. each AAA activity on a four-level scale from unsatisfac- The committee will identify the most important topics tory to highly satisfactory. on which research is lacking and monitor the extent and 1 effectiveness of subsequent studies addressing them. • Infrastructure and urban development. The research funded under this new initiative will be • Agriculture and rural development. highlighted in future editions of the Abstracts of Current • Macroeconomics and growth. Studies. • International economics. • Domestic finance and banking. Research on Which This Volume Reports • Investment climate and private sector development. • Governance and public sector management. This volume reports on research projects initiated, under The appendix lists reports and publications resulting way, or completed in fiscal 2004 (July 1, 2003, through from Bank research and explains how to obtain them. June 30, 2004). The abstract for each project describes the questions addressed, the analytic methods used, the How to Obtain More Information findings to date, policy implications, the research team, and any reports or publications produced. To make it This volume is an annual compendium; more timely easier for readers to obtain information and data, each information on World Bank research and its findings is abstract gives the email address for the research pro- available in the monthly World Bank Research ject’s supervisor. E-Newsletter, which reaches subscribers by email. The abstracts cover 151 research projects from A subscription link to the Research newsletter, as well as throughout the Bank, grouped under 11 major headings: links to archived issues, can be found at http://econ • Poverty and social development. .worldbank.org/research_newsletter. The Abstracts of Cur- • Health and population. rent Studies, Policy Research Working Papers, and many • Education, labor, and employment. research reports are available at http://econ.worldbank • Environment. .org/research. 2 Introduction Studies by Subject Area Poverty and Social Development 11 The Geography of Poverty 11 Albania Panel Data Entry: Supervision 13 Linking Representative Household