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NIGERIA:THE PROSPECTS of an “ARAB SPRING”. Professor A. E Global Journal of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences Vol.2, No.7, pp.18-26, September 2014 Published by European Centre for Research Training and Development UK (www.eajournals.org) NIGERIA:THE PROSPECTS OF AN “ARAB SPRING”. Professor A. E. Agbogu Directorate of General Studies Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. ABSTRACT: The phrase “Arab Spring” has now gained recognition in political lexicon and I believe it simply means sudden mass uprising aimed at the overthrow of existing Government which is effected by massive and unrelenting mass demonstrations, which suddenly paralyses the operations of Government of the day. Such actions amounts to a revolution defined as “violent civil disturbances that cause the displacement of one ruling group by another that has a broader popular base” (Davis 1962, p6).The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities of such “Arab Spring” translating into a Nigerian Summer. The position of this paper is that the condition for a revolution already exists in Nigeria. The Government should avoid things that would ignite the dormant forces into action that would be injurious to the safety of the nation. KEYWORDS: Arab Spring, Nigeria INTRODUCTION Some may consider this exercise as a wild and unwarranted one given the spatial differences in the two regions under consideration. Be that as it may, it may be necessary to consider three factors that have made this research compelling. The first is the seemingly deteriorating state of the nation which overtime has progressively oscillated between harmony and anarchy leaving the events leading to civil war and immediately after, to more appropriate analysis, we will concentrate on the period since the last handover from the Military that is 1999. The election that followed this handover has been described as the worst ever (Guardian Nig April 18, 2007, p67, April 19, editorial, April 2007 p.14). The bickerings arising from that exercise which we shall return to shortly are part of the reasons that have fuelled speculation as to the breakdown of law and order in Nigeria as is the case among the Arab States of North Africa. This background similarity can only be under estimated at a great risk. The Times of London in editorial highlighted this when it adviced the President “to grasp the urgency of Nigeria’s situation and save a failing state before he is swept away by violence, despair or another coup” (Times of London, August 1st, 2009). Secondly but more significantly is the pronouncement by Mrs. Hilary Clinton erstwhile American Secretary of State. During one of her visits to Nigeria, the American Secretary of State doubted the possibility of the survival of Nigeria as an entity by the year 2015. The choice of the year 2015 is instructive, in the sense that Nigerians were forcibly amalgamated in 1914. There is wide speculation that a clause in the amalgamation chatter states that the merging units will have to consent to the continuation of the union after 100 years. The machinations of ethnic nationalities may really be the pointer to the position of the American Secretary of State. The basis for this pessimistic outlook was not immediately clear, but of 18 Global Journal of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences Vol.2, No.7, pp.18-26, September 2014 Published by European Centre for Research Training and Development UK (www.eajournals.org) course an America Secretary of State cannot speak just for the sake of speaking. Many among the Nigerian Press took it quite seriously and went to town with all sorts of interpretation. It is not unlikely that the state of corruption among the high and mighty of Nigerian politics, the warring warlords of Niger Delta and the Boko Haram Terrorists of north eastern Nigeria may have been part of the baggage that informed the Secretary’s pronouncement. The President Dr. Jonathan responded to this statement in an address to Muslims on Friday 9th of August when he reassured Nigerians that those who are expecting Nigeria to break-up in the year 2015 will be disappointed because Nigeria is indivisible. Thirdly at about the same time but independently the Libyan leader Colonel Mauma Gaddafi raised once again the dormant question of Nigeria’s uncertain future, when he openly without recourse to diplomatic niceties called for the division of Nigeria into a Northern Muslim entity and a corresponding Southern Christian entity restating as it were what Lindsay Barrett stated a decade ago. Mr. Barrett feared that “it would not be pessimistic to conclude that the intolerance espoused by many of these fringe organizations could lead to a major breakdown of law and order in the near future” (West African, 1988). The Federal Government of Nigeria responded with furry, instantly recalling Nigeria’s Ambassador to Libya, while the Senate President, Mr. David Mark openly called the Libyan leader a “mad man”. (The Guardian Nig., March 19, 2010). Finally, domino effect is now a well developed analytical tool in Political Science (Chaturvedi, 2006:93). It essentially assumes that certain political activities are like contagious or infectious diseases which by their very nature spread like a whirl-wind from one area to another provided that fertile grounds exist to support their survival. A typical example is the spread of military coup d’états in the fifties and sixties. First in Latin America thence to North Africa and then across West Africa beginning from Nigeria to the whole of Central, Eastern and Southern Africa, leaving only the areas controlled and influenced by the Apartheid regime in South Africa. Many Nigerians fear this possibility as is openly demonstrated in radio talk-shows and ordinary conversation when people caution the Government to do the right thing and avoid the Algerian example of mass uprising. Even a near mass uprising in support of the Nigeria Labour strike was dubbed subversion on the Federal Government, again indicating the level of apprehension on the part of Government on sudden mass uprising. These three reasons in my opinion make it necessary to put to rigorous examination the factors that may warrant a repeat of the Arab Spring in Nigeria. Essentially, our method will be normative and analytical but rigorously testing all available variables and weighing them in terms of possibility or otherwise. This requires detachment and unbiased conclusions free from the writer’s bias. Though normative, this analysis will incorporate valuable tests where necessary to fortify any conclusions reached. Revolutionary activities are contagious and history is repeated with such influences. James Davis noted this of the Russian Revolution when he stated that “... surely the rationalist currents from France that slowly penetrated Russian intellectual life during the reign of Catherine the Great a hundred years before the Russian revolution were necessary lineal antecedents of the 1917 Revolution.” (Davis op. cit. p.10) 19 Global Journal of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences Vol.2, No.7, pp.18-26, September 2014 Published by European Centre for Research Training and Development UK (www.eajournals.org) Much has been written about Revolution but generally Karl Marx and Alexide-de- Tocqueville set the pace for theoretical analysis. For Marx two opposing theoretical perspectives are presented, they are as follows: i. that progressive degradation of the industrial working class would finally reach the point of despair and inevitable revolt ii. not only progressive degration of the proletariat but rather an improvement in workers’ economic condition which did not keep pace with the growing welfare of capitalists and therefore produce social tension which invariably leads to revolution. (Marx and Engels, 1955; p94). Alexide-de Tocqueville espouses the second proposition of Marx, when he noted that -- evils which are patiently endured when they seem inevitable become intolerable when once the idea of escape from them is suggested. (A de Tocqueville, 1856 p.214). By these definitions, revolutions are most likely to be understood as resulting from a frame of mind of a people in terms of their perception of what is to be considered as improvement of their current status as against what it had been. Also relevant to any analysis of Revolution is the J-curve theory of rising expectation that is unfulfilled which triggers rebellion. In the same manner Taylor stated that “.. the revolutions of 1848 were not caused by the Industrial Revolution, but by its absence. Towns increased faster than the industries which provided employment and goods; and, as a consequence, their growth led to a declining standard of urban life. Industrial development - - - is the remedy for social discontent, not its cause”. (A.J.P.Taylor, 1965). In our analysis that follows, we posit that the basis of our analysis is on the fact that among other factors that are situationally specific, the fundamental basis of Revolution in our opinion already exist in Nigeria as well as the North Africa Countries of the “Arab Spring” fame, where both rising expectations have not been met as has become clear in North Africa and which we hope to address in our analysis of the “mood” of the people of Nigeria. This approach according to Davis is very useful as long as we can get “to data indicating by influence the prevailing mood of a society, the closer we will be understanding the change from gratification to frustration in people’s mind”. (Davis Ibid p.) THE SIMILARITIES Having established the facts that have necessitated this inquiry, we intend to methodically place all the facts to rigorous scrutiny. Among the facts necessitating this research is the fact that background conditions in Nigeria are similar to those of North Africa. In this section, we intend to analyse these similarities, counter weigh them in the next segment with the dissimilarities and based on the superior position make our conclusion.
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