AER JULY 2021 OSPACE AIR TRANSPORT IN ANTARCTICA A321XLR – GOING THE DISTANCE 75 YEARS OF EJECTION SEATS www.aerosociety.com July 2021 Volume 48 Number 7 Volume Royal Aeronautical Society Royal Aeronautical IN THE AI OF THE BEHOLDER DO ADVANCES IN ROBOTIC INTELLIGENCE RENDER THE PILOT OBSOLETE? 47th European Rotorcraft Forum 7 - 9 September 2021 I Virtual The European Rotorcraft Forum is one of the premier events in the rotorcraft community’s calendar bringing together manufacturers, research centres, academia, operators and regulatory agencies to discuss advances in research, development, design, testing, manufacturing and operation of rotorcraft. Tickets RAeS Member £325+VAT Non-Member £400+VAT RAeS Corporate Partner £375+VAT CEAS Member £325+VAT Speaker/Chair £300+VAT RAeS Student/Apprentice Affiliate Member £125+VAT LEAD SPONSOR SUPPORTER Find out more and book your place www.erf2021.org Volume 48 Number 7 July 2021 EDITORIAL Contents Navigating the AI hype Regulars 4 Radome 12 Transmission rollercoaster The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets aeronautical intelligence, and social media feedback. How far are we away from creating truly thinking machines? A few years ago, it analysis and comment. was thought that the AI singularity was right around the corner. Today, although 58 The Last Word 11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward bids farewell AI can solve many specific problems (and can even defeat a skilled USAF fighter Rob Coppinger examines to the RAF Hercules and pilot in carefully controlled conditions – see p 14), the crashes of self-driving research into drag-reducing considers the vital strategic cars, Alexa misordering stuff from the internet and other glitches seems to ‘sharkskins’ and their effect role of the modern military transport aircraft. indicate that truly smart AI is still decades away. What is more is that humans on aircraft efficiency. have now discovered that AI can be easily deliberately tricked and spoofed, for instance, by embedding hidden information. A picture of a sloth, for instance, Features MoD suitably digitally tweaked, may fool algorithms into thinking it was a tank or vice 28 versa. This could mean, for military applications that AI ‘adversary’ camouflage becomes an arms race, allowing aircraft, ships and vehicles to ‘hide’ in plain sight, 14 NZ Defence Force changing imperceptible parts of their visual, radar or IR signature – which would then confuse AI sensors. One could even imagine a kind of ‘dazzle’ camouflage that might appear bright and loud to human eyes in visual range but which may fool far-off aerial or space sensors. This battle between spoofing algorithms Welcome to the future of and ‘hardening’ AI sensors or weapons against these sorts of countermeasures, air combat Frozen flight could even, as one presenter suggested in an RAes Weapon Systems and Does the increased use of An analysis of the unique artificial intelligence (AI) in Technology Specialist Group webinar, mean that ‘AI-powered’ weapons could conditions of operating air defence systems mean that services to Antarctica and be too expensive to employ against lower-cost targets. This webinar also found the days of human fighter a proposal for a permanent when thinking about the most near-term and useful applications of AI, it was not pilots are over? concrete runway. digital ‘Top Guns’ aces but the more ‘boring and mundane’ roles who will see the 18 Fly smarter, fly greener benefits of AI first. Predicative maintenance, prognostics, dynamic route planning What can the aviation industry 32 Are you sitting do to embrace greener comfortably...? and logistics (along with surveillance) are thus likely to be the first beneficiaries – operations to reduce its An international history of 75 rather than digital Manfred von Richthofens.. environmental impact? years of the ejection seat. Airbus Tim Robinson FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief 22 [email protected] @RAeSTimR 38 Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Editorial Office 2021 AEROSPACE subscription Faradair Tim Robinson FRAeS Royal Aeronautical Society rates: Non-members, £190 +44 (0)20 7670 4353 No.4 Hamilton Place To place your order, contact: Extra long-range, extra [email protected] London W1J 7BQ, UK Wayne J Davis +44 (0)20 7670 4300 near future Deputy Editor +44 (0)20 7670 4354 [email protected] Bill Read FRAeS [email protected] An analysis of the origins and No more excuses +44 (0)20 7670 4351 www.aerosociety.com Any member not requiring a print future prospects of Airbus’ Faradair in the UK is [email protected] AEROSPACE is published by the Royal version of this magazine should new A321 XLR long-range developing the BEHA 18-seat Aeronautical Society (RAeS). contact: [email protected] Production Manager narrowbody aircraft. electric-driven triplane. 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Annabel Hallam Reproduction of material used in this 49 e-Library Additions +44 (0)20 7670 4361 publication is not permitted without the 50 Obituary [email protected] written consent of the Editor-in-Chief. 51 IT FLIES USA Book Review Editors Printed by Buxton Press Limited, Tony Pilmer and Katrina Sudell Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire 52 RAeS Light Aircraft Design Competition [email protected] SK17 6AE, UK 54 New Member Spotlight Distributed by Royal Mail 55 RAeS Diary Additional content is available to view online at: aerosociety.com/aerospaceinsight Read AEROSPACE and the Insight blog on your Including: Low-level oil spill dispersant training, Is peripheralisation the problem in aviation safety?, Civil aviation in the future, The legality of the interception of Ryanair Flight FR4978, Time for a UK smartphone or tablet with the AEROSPACE app Online national space mission, The importance of research in aerospace, Focus on ground operations staff. APP available from iTunes and Google Play Front cover: The future of merged AI/human air systems? (Daniel Dyer/RAeS Bedford Branch) @aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com JULY 2021 13 Blueprint INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT Jet speeds A reduced fan diameter (12-13ft) will allow for underwing integration, unlike previous larger diameter (16ft) open-rotor designs, as well as giving jet-like Mach numbers with the rear stators. AEROSPACE RISEing to the challenge GE Aviation and Safran, partners in CFM International, have announced a new engine technology platform – RISE or Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines. RISE uses an open-rotor architecture with a single rotating fan and the goal of achieving a 20% cut Quieter fan in emissions. It is also sized for a number of airframe CFM says that ground-testing configurations, including beneath the wing. Set to of an open-rotor engine by undergo ground testing in the middle of the decade, partner SAFRAN has found that noise levels can be kept to the RISE is being designed to allow for hybrid-electric equivalent of today’s quiet LEAP applications using 100% SAF and also, potentially, turbofan – a major drawback hydrogen fuel in the future. of open-rotor designs from the CFM International 1980s. 4 AEROSPACE Single rotor Unlike previous contra-rotating open rotor engines, RISE will use a single rotating fan in front and a set of active variable- pitch stators behind – reducing weight and complexity. Core benefits RISE will incorporate a compact high-temperature core, advanced alloys and ceramics and an embedded electrical generator which will open up hybrid-electric applications. Opening up multiple applications As a ‘puller’ open rotor engine, RISE will be able to be integrated on multiple airliner configurations, including tail-mounted and high and low-underwing single-aisle. Test bed flying will also be simplified. CFM International JULY 2021 5 Radome COVID-19 AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT IATA urges data-led approach to Travel fury as UK reopening borders backtracks on ‘green list’ IATA New research and modelling Airlines and travel were added to the ‘red on Covid-19 spread from industry organisations list’ with the strictest Airbus and Boeing has have reacted angrily rules. The decision drew found that governments can to the latest update fury from UK airlines safely reopen borders and on 3 June from the UK and the tourism industry. international air travel by government on Covid-19 EasyJet CEO Johan using big data to manage risk, travel rules, which saw Lundgren said that: “With according to IATA. “Universal Portugal removed as one Portuguese rates similar restrictions are no longer of the few ‘green list’ to those in the UK, it necessary,” said IATA D-G destinations and moved simply isn’t justified by Willie Walsh, who noted that to the ‘amber list’. Seven the science,” adding that government caution was now slowing the recovery in passenger air travel. In separate research new countries, including “this essentially cuts the by both Airbus and Boeing it was shown how deep simulation and modelling of the whole Bharain, Costa Rica, UK off from the rest of passenger journey can allow decision-makers to manage risk and implement strategies. Egypt and Sir Lanka the world.” AEROSPACE AIR TRANSPORT Airlines demand Emirates reports first loss in its transatlantic reopening history, cuts 30% of staff Eimrates On the eve of the G7 in both countries and the summit, an alliance of US importance of the key and UK airlines, including transatlantic market make American Airlines, British it vital that Covid-19 Airways, Delta Air Lines, travel restrictions are JetBlue, United Airlines eased.