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Israel and the Middle East News Update

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Israel and the Middle East News Update Israel and the Middle East News Update Friday, December 13 Headlines: • Israel Hayom Poll: Center-Left Bloc – 61, Right Wing Bloc - 51, Liberman - 8 • Liberman Backs Pardon for Netanyahu in Exchange for Exit from Politics • Poll: Israelis Prefer a Two State Solution to One State • UK Chief Rabbi: Election Is Over But Worries Over anti-Semitism Remain Commentary: • Ma’ariv: “Netanyahu’s Life’s Work” − By Ben Caspit • TOI: “Why Israel’s 3rd Election Might Not Be Such a Disaster, After All” − By David Horovitz, editor of the Times of Israel S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat, Associate Editor News Excerpts December 13, 2019 Israel Hayom Poll: Center-Left Bloc – 61, Right Wing Bloc - 51, Liberman - 8 Q: If the Knesset election were held today and Binyamin Netanyahu were Likud chairman, for which party would you vote? Blue and White: 37 Likud: 31 Joint List: 14 Shas: 8 Yisrael Beiteinu: 8 United Torah Judaism: 7 Labor Party-Gesher: 6 New Right: 5 Democratic Union: 4 Q: Who do you think is primarily responsible for the failure to form a government? Binyamin Netanyahu: 43% Avigdor Liberman: 30% Yair Lapid: 6% Benny Gantz: 5% The Haredim: 2% Q: Will the fact that Israel is holding elections for the third time in the span of a year make you change or not change your vote compared with the previous elections? Yes: 13% No: 60% Perhaps: 27% Q: What are the odds that you will vote in the upcoming Knesset election, which will take place in approximately three months? Certain: 59% Good odds: 23% Moderate odds: 3% Poor odds: 15% See also, “Poll shows Gantz’s Blue and White opening 6-seat lead over Netanyahu’s Likud” (Times of Israel) Times of Israel Liberman Backs Pardon for Netanyahu in Exchange for Exit Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman said Thursday he would back a deal in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is allowed to avoid jail in exchange for an agreement to retire from politics. Liberman told the Ynet news site that he backed “a deal [for the premier] to retire with dignity,” claiming there was “a sense of fatigue” with Netanyahu in the Knesset and a feeling that “he’s become a burden.” He added: “No one wants to see him in prison, but no one wants him in politics either. And everyone is truly prepared to give him the opportunity to exit with dignity.” See also, “Gantz: We will consider pardon for Netanyahu if he quits politics” (Ynet News) 2 Jerusalem Post Poll: Israelis Prefer a Two State Solution to One State The majority of Israelis do not expect the next government to do more to reach a peace treaty with the Palestinians, a poll commissioned by the Geneva Initiative found. More than half (56%) of Israelis expect the next government will do less or the same to work towards a peace agreement, while 44% expect it to do more. Most of those surveyed (56%) thought that allowing the current situation to continue is bad for Israel, while 23% thought it was good and 21% didn’t know. Of the following options, 57% preferred a two-state solution, 26% chose one state with fewer rights for Palestinians and 17% preferred one state with equal rights for all. Another poll question gave different options for the next decade: 53% preferred that Israel and the Palestinians reach a permanent agreement, 21% that Israel annex the West Bank, 12% that the situation stay the same, 9% don’t know and 5% that Israel will unilaterally withdraw from most of the West Bank. The Geneva Initiative, the organization that ordered the poll, promotes a two-state agreement between Israel and the Palestinians based on a 2003 draft of such an agreement reached by former senior officials on both sides. See also, “Both Israelis and Palestinians are in competition over the victim role. A new study may have the key to breaking the impasse” (Ha’aretz) Times of Israel UK rabbi: Election is over but worries over anti-Semitism remain British Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis, who last month took an unprecedented stand against the Labour party, says that although the election is over, there are still many challenges that must be faced, including anti-Semitism and Islamophobia. “It is vital that we now bring the country together, ensuring that the voices of people from across our society are heard and respected. We must focus on our shared values and leave all hatred and prejudice far behind us.” In a column published last month, Mirvis said he was compelled to intervene in politics because Britain’s Jews were “gripped by anxiety” over the future of the community and of Judaism in the country amid the prospect of a Labour win. See also, “Corbyn's loss is Jews and Israel's gain” (Jerusalem Post) 3 Ma’ariv – December 13, 2019 Life’s Work By Ben Caspit – • The Israeli political situation is crazier than any fiction, more ridiculous than any satire, more dangerous than flying down the Ayalon Highway on an electric scooter. The election for the 23rd Knesset will be held on March 2, 2020. It’s hard to believe, but it’s a fact. • Imagine for a moment if Netanyahu hadn’t moved up elections just to preempt the hearing, and then moved up elections once again to preempt the indictment, and hasn’t kept moving us and him up to death. Originally, the election for the 23rd Knesset was supposed to be held in 2028. That election is going to be held eight years earlier because of one man who has grasped the country with the last bit of his strength in an effort to evade justice. The ones who are supposed to tell him that it’s over are watching this spectacle with terrified curiosity and are silent. These elected officials have been derelict in their duty and their conscience, and we will need to get even with them in due time. • Meanwhile, the country has lost 2019, is losing 2020, the healthcare system is collapsing, the budgets are stuck, local governments are stuck, significant decisions cannot be made, the IDF doesn’t have a multiannual plan, growth has been curtailed—and this is a very partial list. But what matters is that Netanyahu goes first in an alternating premiership and serves eight months, or six, or four, or go one week one and one week off as prime minister, the post in which he has already served close to 11 years consecutively and 14 cumulatively. Like a cork that has dried out in a bottle of champagne, Netanyahu is blocking the country to which he swore his loyalty. • After all, no one else in the political establishment is holding everything up. If Netanyahu were to deign to do what any sane, responsible patriot would do in his situation (see: Ehud Olmert) and switch with Edelstein/Saar in order to deal with his legal affairs, everything would have been resolved within a matter of thirty seconds; the right wing would have remained in power, and the sun would have continued to rise. • One day of the reality of Israel is comparable to what happens in an entire season of House of Cards. The lead actors are the two Binyamins, Netanyahu and Gantz. Had it been solely up to them, things might have looked differently. The problem is that the arena is filled with supporting actors, some of whom are more dominant than the leads. Plots, intrigue, brokers, conflicting interests, dirty tricks, disorienting spins, and misrepresentations have flown all over at a crazy pace. Gantz has to worry about the Cockpit. At home, Netanyahu has to worry about the cuckoo’s nest. Just try to run a country—or to establish a government—under those conditions. • Bottom line, this week Netanyahu reaped what he has spent his whole life sowing. “If Bibi had had more credibility,” a Blue and White official told me, “Benny might have believed him and gone with him.” The problem is that Netanyahu has no credibility. It has been at absolute zero for a long time. The mass graves where all those who trusted him, went with him, signed with him, believed him, aided him and joined him were buried are filled to the brim. 4 • These are multinational graves: Along with Avi Gabbay, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Mordechai, Yitzhak (Buji) Herzog, Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid, Bogie Yaalon, Moshe Kahlon, Gilad Erdan, Dan Meridor and many, many others, you can also find non-Jews like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Abu Mazen, Abu Ala, Angela Merkel, Ronald Lauder, Tony Blair, King Hussein, King Abdullah, and so on. • Netanyahu has a method: He engages in exhausting, detailed, complex and intensive negotiations through close envoys. He never stands openly behind the concessions, the particulars and the entirety of what happens in the negotiations. At the moment of truth, when the time comes to sign on the dotted line, Netanyahu disappears. It’s exactly the same way he disappears when he has to pay for something. • He denies what happened, he says it was an “academic exercise,” an “American proposal,” a “post-Zionist scheme,” or people were speaking in their name only and overstepped their mandate. This way he has managed to concede a united Jerusalem, return to the 1967 lines, and even recognize the refugee problem countless times, without paying any price with his legendary base of voters. Why? Because it wasn’t him, it was them [i.e.
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