Cork Area Strategic Plan – Strategy for Additional Economic and Population Growth - An Update Indecon International Economic Consultants, RPS and Savills HOK 1 July 2008 Contents Page Executive Summary i 1 Introduction and Background 1 1.1 Background and Context 1 1.2 The Study Area 1 1.3 Key Development Issues Facing Cork 3 1.4 Goals and Objectives 5 1.5 Phasing of CASP 7 1.6 Progress towards Achievement of CASP Goals 8 1.7 Structure of Report 15 2 Detailed Economic and Investment Strategy 16 2.1 SWOT analysis of CASP area 16 2.2 Identification of Optimal Economic Development Models 19 2.3 Proposed Sectoral Economic Development Strategy 19 3 Proposed Overall Strategic Plan 27 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Key Concepts 30 3.3 Housing Location 61 3.4 Additional Floorspace and Associated Land Requirements 64 3.5 Front Loading of Infrastructure and the Integrated Transport System 67 4 Phasing the Strategic Plan 127 4.1 Introduction 127 4.2 Overall Strategy 131 Contents Page 4.3 Phasing Programme for Cork City 132 4.4 Phasing Programme for Metropolitan Cork 133 4.5 Phasing Programme for Ring Towns and Rural Areas 134 5 Implementing the Strategic Plan 136 5.1 Institutional Processes 137 5.2 Marketing and Branding 144 5.3 Funding 145 5.4 Monitoring of Progress 150 ANNEXES 154 Annex 1 Glossary and Definitions 155 Annex 2 List of Submissions Made prior to Draft 156 Annex 3 List of Submissions Made post Draft 158 Annex 4 CASP Infrastructure Capital Investment Expenditure 161 Annex 5 CASP Transport Priorities 162 Annex 6 Larger Scale Maps 173 Tables & Figures Page Table 1.1: CASP Goals and related Policy Objectives 6 Table 1.2: CASP Balanced Spatial Development Framework 9 Table 1.3: Summary of Progress on CASP Forecasts by Region – Population 10 Table 1.4: Summary of Progress on CASP Targets by Region – Employment 12 Table 1.5: Summary of Progress on CASP Targets by Region – Households 13 Table 2.1: Summary of Key Strengths of CASP Area 17 Table 2.2: Summary of Key Weaknesses of CASP Area 18 Table 2.3: Summary of Key Opportunities and Threats/Challenges for CASP Area 18 Table 2.4: Sectoral Breakdown of Employment in Proposed Updated CASP Area - 2006 – 2020 21 Table 2.5: Sub-Sectoral Breakdown of Employment in Market Services in CASP Area - 2006 – 2020 – Economic Development Option 1 22 Table 2.6: Education/Skills Requirements – Base Case Scenario for Educational Attainment Levels – Key Assumptions 25 Table 2.7: Education/Skills Requirements – Base Case Scenario for Educational Attainment Levels 26 Table 3.1: Key Plan Statistics 27 Table 3.2: Future Population – Updated CASP Targets 37 Table 3.3: Updated CASP Employment Projections 40 Table 3.4: Future Population - Cork City by Area 46 Table 3.5: Future Employment Growth – Cork City by Area 47 Table 3.6: Future Population - Rest of Metropolitan Cork 56 Tables & Figures Page Table 3.7: Indicative Future Employment Growth – Rest of Metropolitan Cork 57 Table 3.8: Future Population - Ring Towns and Rural Areas 60 Table 3.9: Future Employment Growth – Ring Towns and Rural Areas 60 Table 3.10 – Updated Household Formation Targets - Cork City 62 Table 3.11 – Updated Household Formation Projections – Rest of Metropolitan Cork 63 Table 3.12 – Updated Household Formation Projections – Ring Towns & Rural Areas 64 Table 3.13 Employment: Indicative Built area and Land use requirements 2006-2020* 65 Table 2-13: Transport Modal Shifts Implied by CASP 91 Table 3.14: Forecast Rail Service Patronage 99 Table 3.15: Scenario Based Rail Service Patronage 99 Table 4.1 – Phasing Programme for Housing –CASP Area 131 Table 4.2 – Phasing Programme for Population – CASP Area 131 Table 4.3 – Phasing Programme for Housing – Cork City 132 Table 4.4 - Phasing Programme for Population – Cork City 132 Table 4.5 – Phasing Programme for Housing – Rest of Metropolitan Cork 133 Table 4.6 – Phasing Programme for Population of Rest of Metropolitan Cork 134 Table 4.7 – Phasing Programme for Housing – Ring Towns & Rural Areas 135 Table 4.8 – Phasing Programme for Population– Ring Town & Rural areas 135 Tables & Figures Page Table 5.1 – Key Investment Priorities identified within NDP 2007-2013 146 Table 5.2 – Sub-Programme Commitments within Economic Infrastructure Priority 147 Table 5.3 – Key Development Priorities for Cork Gateway identified in NDP 2007-2013 148 Table 5.4: Proposed Monitoring Framework 152 Figure 1.1: Study Area 2 Figure 1.2: CASP area zoning system 3 Figure 1.3: Developments in Population Relative to CASP Forecasts 11 Figure 1.4: Population Growth by sub area 2002-2006 11 Figure 1.5: Population Density per square km 12 Figure 1.6: Developments in Number of Households Relative to CASP Targets 14 Figure 3.1: Cork Area Strategic Plan Diagram 28 Figure 3.2: Concept Diagram for the Inner City 29 Figure 3.3: Structure Diagram for Metropolitan Cork 29 Figure 3.4: Scale of Anticipated Growth in Population 38 Figure 3.5: Schematic Public Transport Map for Cork in the Year 2020 68 Figure 3.6: Comparative Average journey time to work, minutes 77 Figure 3.7: Total Journey Quality Approach 80 Figure 3.8: Mode of Travel to Work/School/College in Cork City Area within CASP 89 Tables & Figures Page Figure 3.9: Travel to Work/School/College in Outer Metropolitan Area within CASP 89 Figure 3.10: Travel to Work/School/College in Ring Towns and Rural Areas within CASP 90 Figure 3.11: Transport Strategy for Ring Towns & Rural Areas 96 Figure 3.12: Transport Strategy for Rest of Metropolitan Cork 101 Figure 5.1: Proposed revised CASP Implementation Structure 140 Executive Summary Executive Summary Background to the Cork Area Strategic Plan The Cork Area Strategic Plan (CASP) is a pioneering initiative jointly sponsored by Cork City Council and Cork County Council which provides a vision and strategy for the development of the Cork City-Region up to 2020. The original CASP which was published in 2001, set out a broad brush strategy which aimed to provide guidance as to the general direction and scale of growth which would enable the Cork City-Region to provide a high quality of life and opportunity for all of its citizens over a 20-year period. The strategy appropriately sought to move towards a more sustainable form of development for the Cork City region. In particular, the CASP set out a framework that would enable the Cork City region to: Attain critical mass; Integrate land use and transport; Make efficient use of investment in infrastructure; Provide a high quality environment; and Improve the competitiveness and attractiveness of the region. This Update of CASP which was prepared with the assistance of Indecon International Economic Consultants, RPS Consultants and Savills HOK, is designed to build on the strengths of Cork and to facilitate Cork to become a leading competitive European city-region. It takes account of revisions needed to reflect economic, market and policy developments since the CASP was prepared and places particular emphasis on the implementation of policies to achieve the goals of the CASP. It also includes an increased focus on the economic and investment strategy. The updated Strategy has also been designed to meet the Government’s national policies on spatial strategy and on climate change adjustments contained within the National Climate Strategy 2007-2012. The implementation of this CASP update will be the most effective means through which the Cork planning authorities can assist in the delivery of the National Climate Strategy 2007-2012. The Study Area The CASP covers an area determined by a journey time of about 45 minutes from Cork City. This area has been defined as the Cork City-Region and includes Cork City, the satellite towns of Midleton, Carrigtwohill, Carrigaline, Ballincollig and Blarney, and the Ring Towns and rural hinterlands of Bandon, Macroom, Mallow, Fermoy, Youghal and Kinsale. July 2008 Page i Executive Summary Cork Area Strategic Plan Spatial Outline Source: CASP (2001) Objectives of Updated Strategy This update modifies the 2001 CASP and delivers an updated strategy which provides a significant enhancement in economic growth and accommodates a greater population than originally envisaged. The update achieves this while adhering to the key goals for the City-Region which were agreed as part of the 2001 plan. The goals set for the CASP remain valid and the key issue for this update is to align the implementation of policies with these goals which cover the following areas: Economic growth Social inclusion Balanced spatial development Environment Urban renewal Transportation Infrastructure Within both the spatial area and time horizons defined in the CASP 2001, the updated strategy, in particular: July 2008 Page ii Executive Summary Identifies an economic development strategy for the CASP area that will deliver a major uplift in economic growth and employment capable of sustaining the increased population now being targeted at the area; and Taking account of this new strategy and the revised population targets for the area, revises the existing CASP spatial development and transportation strategy for the city-region, building on the key goals identified in the 2001 plan. Sets the updated strategy for economic and population growth and transportation within the context of the other key CASP 2001 goals of social inclusion, urban renewal and a high quality environment. Progress in Implementing the CASP In preparing this update of the CASP, it is necessary to reflect the fact that significant progress has been made since 2001 but that the spatial allocation of population has not been aligned with what was envisaged in the CASP.