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Bank Portfolio Allocation: Evidence from Sierra Leone

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Bank Portfolio Allocation: Evidence from Sierra Leone University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh BANK PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION: EVIDENCE FROM SIERRA LEONE BY BAIMBA AUGUSTINE BOCKARIE (10297268) THIS THESIS IS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF GHANA, LEGON IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MPHIL ECONOMICS DEGREE JUNE, 2012. University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DECLARATION This is to certify that this thesis is the result of a research undertaken by Baimba Augustine Bockarie towards the award of a Master of Philosophy degree in the Department of Economics, University of Ghana. ----------------------------------------------------- BAIMBA AUGUSTINE BOCKARIE ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- DR. S. K. K. AKOENA DR. E. OSEI-ASSIBEY (SUPERVISOR) (SUPERVISOR) i University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ABSTRACT Bank portfolio allocation is an important determinant of the efficacy of monetary policy through the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study generally investigates the factors that influence banks‟ portfolio allocation in Sierra Leone. Specifically, the study looks into the effects of risk premium, leverage ratio, and credit risk on banks‟ earning asset portfolio allocation in Sierra Leone between 2002 and 2011. Using annual bank level data on an unbalanced panel of thirteen commercial banks for the study period, and employing time and bank specific fixed effects model for estimation, it is confirmed that risk premium, the share of non-performing loans in the banks‟ loan portfolio, tier 1 capital ratio (leverage ratio), and local currency deposit levels positively and significantly affect the share of loan supply to the private sector in banks‟ earning assets. On the other hand the loan-deposit ratios (or advance-deposit ratio) and bank size has significant negative effects on the share of loans in banks‟ earning assets. The study also finds bank type (state, private domestic, and foreign) and the growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product - a control variable for economic activities and hence, loan demand - to be important determinants of the share of loans in banks‟ earning assets. Based on these results, the study makes a number of recommendations including the following: Action should be taken to increase risk premium to banks, for example, through exercising stronger fiscal discipline so as to bring down the yield on government securities. ii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh The Central Bank of Sierra Leone should play a parental role in strengthening the depth of the Interbank Market operations as a secondary market. This will have the effect of increasing access of banks to short term liquidity The availability of more funding sources other than client deposits reduces the risk of adverse deposits shocks. Banks should be encouraged to have capital in excess of the minimum paid up capital (Capital buffers) so as have more room to absorb the inherent risk in the business of banking. iii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my daughters (Ayisha and Anisah Bockarie) and my parents (Mrs Jinnah-Watta Bockarie and Mr Mohamed Bockarie). iv University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank God for making it possible for me to particularly undertake this entire study. Very special thanks to Mr and Mrs Mohamed Bockarie for bringing me to this world and painfully ensuring that I get some formal education. I wish to register my profound gratitude to the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) for sponsorship. I offer my sincerest gratitude to my supervisors, Dr S. K. K. Akoena and Dr E.Osei-Assibey, who supported me throughout my thesis write-up with their patience, thoughtful suggestions and the invaluable and constructive comments on every chapter of this work. I am indebted to Dr and Mrs Abu Bakar Tarawalie for their motivations and supports to me, Dr Afred Barimah and Dr Edward Nketiah-Amponsah for sharing my student troubles with me, and every member of staff in the Department of Economics, especially those through whose hands I have passed, including the workers in the General Office and the office of the Head of Department. I am extraordinarily thankful to Miss. Betty Annan and the Edward Annan Family for making me feel at home away from home. Your good deeds will always linger in my mind. Verily, I cannot be more grateful to Miss. Mahawa Bayoh and Mr Mohamed Foday of the Banking Supervision Department of BSL for providing me with the data for this research. Equal thanks go to all of my mates (especially Innocent Abgelie, Christopher Nyarko and Murtala Yusuf). Special thanks to my brother, Dr Mohamed Sheku for his care and love. I cannot thank Mrs Hawah Bockarie more for her continuous support. I appreciate all those whose names I could not mention here. Finally, any ambiguities and shortcomings in this thesis are solely my responsibility. v University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE Declaration ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- i Abstract --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ii Dedication ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ iv Acknowledgements-------------------------------------------------------------------------- v Table of Contents---------------------------------------------------------------------------- vi List of Tables -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- x List of Figures ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- xii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ----------------------------------------------------- xiv CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY -------------------------------- 1 1.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem -------------------------------------------------- 7 1.3 Research Objectives -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 1.4 Research Hypotheses ------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 1.5 Significance of the Study -------------------------------------------------------------- 10 1.6 Organisation of the Study ------------------------------------------------------------- 11 CHAPTER2: OVERVIEW OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEMOF SIERRA LEONE--------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13 vi University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 2.2 Evolution of Commercial Banking in Sierra Leone ------------------------------- 13 2.3 Branch Networks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 2.4 Analysis of the Industry Balance Sheet---------------------------------------------- 17 2.5 Market Trends--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 2.6 Market Shares --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 2.7 Some Commercial Banking Regulations in Sierra Leone------------------------- 27 2.8Sectoral Allocation of Bank Loans--------------------------------------------------- 30 CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW -------------------------------------------- 32 3.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 32 3.2 Theoretical Literature Review -------------------------------------------------------- 32 3.2.1 The Markowitz Portfolio Selection Model ---------------------------------------- 32 3.2.2 The Accommodation Principle ----------------------------------------------------- 34 3.2.3 The Profit Maximising Principle --------------------------------------------------- 35 3.2.4 Bank Attitude Toward Risk --------------------------------------------------------- 36 3.2.5 The Risks of Banking Business ---------------------------------------------------- 38 3.2.5.1 Interest Rate Risk ------------------------------------------------------------------ 39 3.2.5.2Measuring Interest Rate Risk ---------------------------------------------------- 40 3.2.5.2.1 The Repricing (Funding Gap) Model ---------------------------------------- 40 3.2.5.2.2 The Macauley‟s Duration Model --------------------------------------------- 43 3.2.5.2.3 The Risk Matrics Model------------------------------------------------------- 47 3.2.5.2.4 Historic (Back) Simulation Model -------------------------------------------- 49 3.2.5.3 Credit Risk -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 vii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh 3.2.5.4 Measuring Credit Risk ------------------------------------------------------------- 50 3.2.5.4.1 Reputation ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 3.2.5.4.2 Leverage ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 3.2.5.4.3 Volatility of Earnings---------------------------------------------------------- 51 3.2.5.4.4 Collateral ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 51 3.2.5.4.5 Business Cycle ----------------------------------------------------------------- 52 3.2.5.4.6 The Level of Interest Rates --------------------------------------------------- 52 3.2.5.4.7 Credit Scoring Model --------------------------------------------------------- 53 3.2.5.4.8 Capital
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