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Sierra Leone, the Constraints Analysis Would Be Concerned with What Is Preventing the Country from Achieving Broad-Based Economic Growth

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Sierra Leone, the Constraints Analysis Would Be Concerned with What Is Preventing the Country from Achieving Broad-Based Economic Growth The production of the constraints analyses posted on this website was led by the partner governments, and was used in the development of a Millennium Challenge Compact or threshold program. Although the preparation of the constraints analysis is a collaborative process, posting of the constraints analyses on this website does not constitute an endorsement by MCC of the content presented therein. 2014-001-1569-02 Republic of Sierra Leone SIERRA LEONE CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS REPORT: A Diagnostic Study of the Sierra Leone Economy; Identifying Binding Constraints to Private Investments and Broad-based Growth FINAL REPORT An Analysis Prepared by the Government of Sierra Leone with Technical Assistance from the Millennium Challenge Corporation of the United States of America, for the Development of a Millennium Challenge Compact DECEMBER 2013 i Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES 8 LIST OF FIGURES 10 1 INTRODUCTION 22 2 ECONOMIC GROWTH: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND OVERVIEW 24 2.1 Summary Poverty Profile 26 2.2 GDP Growth Performance 27 2.3 Agricultural Sector Analysis 29 2.3.1 Contribution to GDP 29 2.3.2 Rice Production 30 2.3.3 Comparative Country Analysis 31 2.4 Export and Trade Performance 32 2.4.1 Trade Balance 32 2.4.2 Export Performance (2001‐2011) 33 2.4.3 Composition of Exports 34 2.4.4 Comparative Analysis 35 2.5 Industrial Sector 35 2.5.1 Comparative Country Analysis 37 2.6 Service Sector 37 2.6.1 Tourism 38 2.6.2 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 39 2.6.3 Comparative Analysis 39 2.7 Trends in Real GDP per Capita 39 2.7.1 Conclusion 40 3 CONSTRAINTS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 41 3.1.1 The ‘HRV’ Model 41 3.1.2 Understanding the Diagnostic Tests 43 3.2 Comparator Country Analysis 45 2 3.3 Data Sources 45 3.4 Limitations to Study Methodology 46 3.5 Mitigating Measures 47 4 IS PRIVATE INVESTMENT TOO LOW IN SIERRA LEONE? 48 4.2 Summary Analysis 50 5 FINANCE AS A POTENTIAL CONSTRAINT TO GROWTH 52 5.1 Introduction 52 5.2 The Financial and Banking Sector 52 5.2.1 Evolution and Growth of the Sector 52 5.2.2 The Soundness and Volume of Lending of the Financial and Banking Sector 53 5.2.3 The Credit Market in Sierra Leone 54 5.2.4 Access to Credit 56 5.2.5 International Finance 57 5.2.6 Local Finance 59 5.3 Tests of Access to Finance as a binding constraint to growth 61 5.3.1 Shadow Price of Finance 61 5.3.2 Growth Test 63 5.3.3 Circumvention test 64 5.3.4 Non‐reliance test 64 5.4 Conclusion 64 6 MACROECONOMIC RISKS 66 6.1 Macroeconomic Risks and Distortions 66 6.1.1 Introduction 66 6.1.2 Analysis of Inflation Trends (2001‐2011) 67 6.1.3 GDP Growth and Inflation 68 6.1.4 Comparative Country Analysis 70 6.2 Government Fiscal Operations 71 6.2.1 Government Revenue 71 6.2.2 Public Expenditure 73 6.2.3 Comparative Country Expenditures 73 3 6.2.4 Revenues and Expenditures to GDP 74 6.2.5 Fiscal Balance 75 6.3 Public External Debt 76 6.3.1 Public Debt Stock Trends 76 6.3.2 External Debt Service Trend 78 6.3.3 Comparative Country Analysis: Public Debt Stocks 78 6.4 Exchange Rates 79 6.5 Macroeconomic Management Policies 81 7 MICROECONOMIC RISKS 85 7.1 Property Rights (Land Tenure) 85 7.1.1 Communal Land Tenure System 86 7.1.2 The Western Area 90 7.1.3 Land markets and investments 92 7.1.4 Reform 93 7.1.5 HRV Test for Land 94 7.2 Taxes 96 7.2.1 Marginal Effective tax rate 98 7.2.2 HRV Test for Tax 99 7.3 Corruption 100 7.4 Regulatory Quality 102 7.5 Policy and Institutional Effectiveness 106 8 MARKET FAILURES IN INNOVATION 108 8.1 Export Basket Size and Composition 108 8.2 Business Sophistication and Technological Readiness 115 8.3 Export Concentration, Diversification and Sophistication 118 8.4 Business Environment 124 8.5 Government Policies to Address Market Failures in innovation 125 4 8.6 Conclusions 126 9 HUMAN CAPITAL 128 9.1 Education 128 9.1.1 Overview and Structure of the Education System 128 9.1.2 Supply Side 128 9.1.3 Student Enrolments 128 9.1.4 Primary Education Enrolment 129 9.1.5 Secondary Education Enrolment 131 9.1.6 Higher Education 132 9.1.7 The Evolution of Gross Enrolment Rates for Sierra Leone 132 9.1.8 School Life Expectancy 133 9.1.9 Quality of Education Supply 134 9.1.10 Firms’ Perception of Human Capital 135 9.1.11 The Labour Market in Sierra Leone 137 9.1.12 Return on Education 142 9.1.13 Human Capital and the HRV Test 145 9.2 Health 146 9.2.1 Child Mortality 146 9.2.2 Child Nutrition 149 9.2.3 The Disability‐adjusted life year 150 9.2.4 Health and the HRV Test 155 10 INFRASTRUCTURE 157 10.1 Infrastructure‐Growth Nexus 157 10.2 Overview of Sierra Leone’s Infrastructure 158 10.3 Power 159 10.3.1 Access to Electricity 159 10.3.2 Demand‐Supply Gap Analysis 162 10.3.3 Power Production Cost and Tariffs 162 10.3.4 Hidden Power Utility Operating Cost 164 10.3.5 Circumvention Measures 165 10.3.6 Implication for Private Enterprise Survival and Growth 167 10.3.7 Enterprise Views on Power as a Constraint 169 10.3.8 Conclusion 169 5 10.1 Information and Communication Technology (ICT) 170 10.1.1 Introduction 170 10.1.2 Sector Summary 171 10.1.3 The Four Tests 179 10.1.4 Challenges 180 10.2 Water and Sanitation 180 10.2.1 Introduction 180 10.2.2 Water Conditions 182 10.2.3 Cost of Water 188 10.2.4 Sanitation 190 10.2.5 Challenges 198 10.2.6 Conclusion 199 10.3 Irrigation 199 10.4 Roads 201 10.4.1 Road Network Quality 201 10.4.2 Road Pavement Conditions 202 10.4.3 Road Quality Index 204 10.4.4 Demand for Roads 205 10.4.5 New Vehicle Registration Trends 206 10.4.6 Average Traffic Levels 206 10.4.7 Road Network Accessibility 206 10.4.8 Transportation Costs 207 10.4.9 Growth Impact of Road Improvements 210 10.4.10 Circumventing the Road Constraints 212 10.4.11 Demand Side Circumvention 212 10.4.12 Supply Side Circumvention 213 10.4.13 Roads and Private Enterprise 213 10.4.14 Enterprise Views on Transport as a Constraint 215 10.4.15 Policy and Institutional Constraints 215 10.4.16 Conclusion 216 10.5 Sea Ports 216 10.5.1 Challenges 219 11 NATURAL CAPITAL 220 11.1 Geography 220 6 11.2 Land Resources 223 11.3 Water Resources 225 11.4 Minerals 227 11.5 Forest and Wildlife 231 11.6 Marine Resources 232 11.7 The Oil and Gas Sector 234 11.8 Beach Resources 234 11.9 Conclusion 235 12 POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL EFFECTIVENESS AS A SYNDROME 236 13 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 240 ANNEX I: Consultation Summary Presentation 7 List of Tables TABLE 3‐1 MAIN COMPARATOR COUNTRIES USED IN ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 45 TABLE 5‐1 TRENDS IN COMMERCIAL BANK BRANCHES IN SIERRA LEONE, 2008 – 2012 ............................................................ 53 TABLE 5‐2 PERCEPTION OF ACCESS TO CREDIT AS A CONSTRAINT, BY SIZE OF FIRM (2009) ........................................................ 57 TABLE 7‐1 ACCESSING INDUSTRIAL LAND .......................................................................................................................... 90 TABLE 7‐2 PROFIT TAX FOR COMPARATOR COUNTRIES ......................................................................................................... 99 TABLE 7‐3 CORRUPTION CASES – 2010 ‐ 2012 ............................................................................................................... 102 TABLE 8‐1 MAJOR EXPORT PRODUCTS FROM SIERRA LEONE (US$ ‘000), 2002 ‐ 2011 ......................................................... 109 TABLE 8‐2 IMPORTS 2002 – 2011 ............................................................................................................................... 111 TABLE 9‐1 ENROLMENT BY SCHOOL LEVEL, 2003‐2011 ................................................................................................... 131 TABLE 9‐2 COUNTRY COMPARISONS OF GER, 2011 (PERCENT) ......................................................................................... 133 TABLE 9‐3 EMPLOYMENT OF SIERRA LEONEANS BY KEY INDUSTRIES (% SHARE) ...................................................................... 138 TABLE 9‐4 AGRICULTURE SECTOR SKILLS GAP ANALYSIS (2013) ........................................................................................... 139 TABLE 9‐5 TRENDS IN GENDER DISTRIBUTION OF FORMAL NATIONAL WORK FORCE IN KEY SECTORS ......................................... 140 TABLE 9‐6 COMPARATIVE RATES OF RETURNS TO LEVEL OF EDUCATION................................................................................ 144 TABLE 9‐7 EMPLOYMENT STATUS OF 18+ YEARS IN SIERRA LEONE, BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, 2011 ........................................... 145 TABLE 9‐8 BUSINESS IMPACT OF DISEASES...................................................................................................................... 152 TABLE 10‐1 TREND OF ACCESS TO GRID CONNECTED ELECTRICITY IN SIERRA LEONE (2006 ‐ 2011) ....................................... 159 TABLE 10‐2 SOURCE OF POWER FOR HOUSEHOLD LIGHTING ............................................................................................ 160 TABLE 10‐3 SIERRA LEONE’S STANDING IN KEY AREAS OF POWER ACCESS AS AT 2011 ........................................................... 161 TABLE 10‐4 NATIONAL POWER AUTHORITY: HIDDEN COSTS VS. REVENUE LOSS .................................................................. 165 TABLE 10‐5 PRIVATE VS. PUBLICLY GENERATED POWER SUPPLY ....................................................................................... 166 TABLE 10‐6 PERCENT OF FIRMS OWNING OR SHARING A GENERATOR ............................................................................... 167 TABLE 10‐7 RAPID EVOLUTION OF MOBILE PHONE SERVICES IN SIERRA LEONE
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