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RESTRICTED UJ copy Report No. AW-3a This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. Public Disclosure Authorized They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized THE CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF SIERRA LEONE Public Disclosure Authorized February 28, 1969 Public Disclosure Authorized Western Africa Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 Leone US $ 1. 20 1 dollar = LE 0. 833 THE CURRENT ECONOVC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF SIERRA LEONE TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA SUMMKARY AND CONCLUSIONS - iii I. The Economy of Sierra Leone 1 A. Introduction 1 B. Structure of the Economy 2 C. Agriculture 4 D. Hining 6 E. Manufacturing 7 II. Recent Performance in the Monetary Sectors 9 A. Growth and Investment 9 B. Balance of Payments 11 C. Public Sector Finance 13 Central Government 13 Public Corporations 15 D. Money Supply and Domestic Credit 16 E. The 1967/68 Stabilization Effort 17 III. Economic Prospects 21 A. The Future Direction of Sierra Leone's Development Effort 21 B. A Projection of Central Government Development Expenditure 25 C. Financing Requirements 29 D. Organizing for Development 32 E. Exports and Balance of Payments 33 STATISTICAL APPENDIX ANTL: Some Notes on Sierra Leone's Experience with iedium-Term Suppliers' and Contractorst Credits HAP This report is based on the findings of a mission, consisting of Eessrs. Loreto Dominguez and Werner Hammel, which visited Sierra Leone in May and June, 1968. BASIC DATA AREA 27,925 square miles POPULATION Total (1968) 2.5 million Rate of Growth 1.5% per annum CUNSU1ER PRICE INDEX (1961-100) 1966 1967 March 1968 Freetown 121.1 127.7 129.1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT at factor cost (1965/66) Le 231.8 million (US $ 278.2 million) per capita (1965/66) US$124 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT at current market prices (1965/66) Le 260.8 million 6 Annual average real growth rate (1963/64-1965/66) 5. oper historic long term trend (estimated) 3.0-4.0% Distribution by sector (% - 1965/66) Agriculture 31.3 Mining 19.2 Manufacturing 6.3 Construction 3.6 Transport and conmunication 7.7 Public Administration and defense 5.2 Other sectors 26.7 INVESTMENT AND SAVING (f% of GDP at current market prices - 1965/66) Gross domestic investment 15.3 Gross domestic savings 11.4 Domestic resource gap 3.9 Net factor payments -3.3 Current account balance 7.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (UJS$ million) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Exports (f.o.b.) 69.5 81.6 75.8 70.9 60.7 Imports (c.i.f.) 71.6 85.2 92.4 86.0 78.0 Services (net) -12.8 -15.3 -13.1 -8.3 n.a. Transfer payments (net) .2 .1 .4 5.2 n.a. Curent account -1..7 -19.0 -29.3 -18.2 n.a. Capital account 11.9 18.5 20.0 15.1 Change of reserves -2.8 -. 5 -9.3 -3.1 -2.4 Projected annual export growth rate (1968-1973): 3% Commodity concentration of exports (diamonds) (1963-1967 average): 63% Net foreign exchange reserves (March 1968): $11.4 million EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT As of June 30, 1968 US$59.0 million Debt service ratio (goods and services - 1967) 11.6% CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES (Le million) Compound annual 1961/62 1968/69 growth rate budget Current revenue 27.1 1.7 6.4 Current expenditure 24.8 32.3 4.5 Central Government savings 2.3 9.4 22.0 Debt service 2.0 8.5 23.0 Capital expenditure 7.6 10.5 14.7 Capital receipts 5.4 8.6 6.9 Overall deficit 1.9 1.0 - SUMIARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. Growth of the Sierra Leonean economy in the last decade was brought about by an expanding mining sector dominated by foreign enterprises. Diamonds alone account for 60% of exports; a diamond boom, which reached its peak in 1964, caused exports to expand by an average annual rate of 11% since 1950. However, income generated by mining exports has only modestly stimu- lated agriculture and manufacturing; instead, it induced imports and other remittances abroad. Sierra Leone thus has a divided economy with an enclave mining sector and a large and underdeveloped agricultural sector which occu- pies 80%1 of the population. The tens of thousands of individual diamond diggers in the country's interior are an exception, but despite their acti- vities and modest agricultural exports, the monetized sector of the economy is comparatively small. An average per capita income of $115 for Sierra Leone's 2.4 million people, though comparatively high by African standards, is thus a misleading indicator of the actual standard of living of most of the population. 2. In the past, the Sierra Leone Government has emphasized invest- ments in infrastructure. Agricultural development was left largely to the Produce Marketing Board. Since the Board's plantation program failed, the agricultural sector has not benefited appreciably from past development efforts. Nevertheless, Sierra Leone has ccnsiderable unused agricultural potential. Her numerous inland swamps and river estuaries offer opportunities for increased rice production. Sierra Leone is not self-sufficient in rice, her major staple food, and, with West Africa as a whole depending on rice imports, there may be possibilities for exports to neighboring countries once a surplus is achieved. Also, there are potentials for tree crops such as oil palm and cocoa. Fish and livestock development are still at rudimen- tary levels. 3. Agricultural development poses problems of organization and management, as well as of finance. This applies both to large-scale plan- tation development and to improving the productivity of the individual farmer. The effort cannot, therefore, be measured only in terms of funds earmarked for the sector. Building up an extension service or an equivalent organization, and encouraging cooperatives and agricultural credit involves institution building which is not necessarily costly. Sierra Leone has as yet only limited managerial and administrative resources. This applies not only to the private sector where expatriate entrepreneurs are very much in evidence in commerce and manufacturing in addition to mining, but also applies to the public sector where staff limitations have adversely affected the quality of public investment. Institution building will have to be part of Sierra Leone's future development effort if the investment pattern is to be governed more by economic priorities and less by the uneven capacities of various public sector bodies. h. Since independence in 1961, the Government has made a remarkable effort to mobilize public savings. Current budget receipts increased by an average annual rate of 7% while expansion of current expenditures was held to 5%, which is commendable for a newly independent country assuming new functions and responsibilities. However, resulting public savings were in- sufficient to finance public investment, and the Government resorted to - ii - domestic bank borrowing and medium-term suppliers' and contractors' credits, resulting in a mounting debt service which has fully absorbed public savings since 1963/64. Efforts to prepare projects and sound investment programs in general were neglected, limiting the opportunities for external long-term borrowing. Credit expansion spilled over into imports, resulting in a con- tinuous loss of foreign exchange reserves. By mid-1966, net foreign assets had dropped to a level of Le 12.8 million ($15.4 million or 2 months' imports) capared with Le 25.4 million by the end of 1961. Thus, because of inadequate and inappropriate means of financing, the Government's efforts to develop the economy outside the mining sector jeopardized an open economy and risked the imposition of foreign exchange restrictions which, however, would be diffi- cult to enforce in a diamond-producing country. 5. Unsatisfactory financing of Government investment was exacerbated by deteriorating finances of public corporations. The country's railway, constructed between 1895 and 1916, has been losing traffic to more economical and flexible road transport, and its large deficits have increasingly burdened the budget. The Sierra Leone Produce Marketing Board, originally established as a marketing organization for export crops, expanded its activities into plantation development after independence. Due to inadequate planning and management, these plantations developed formidable losses. It is estimated that the Board expended about Le 10.5 million between 1964 and 1967 for non- marketing purposes. Thus it not only exhausted its accumulated price stabili- zation fund and current marketing surpluses, but also a Government loan of Le 1 million. Substantial borrowing from a commercial bank was required in 1966/67 to keep the Board afloat. Eventually, marketing of produce began to suffer, which contributed to a drop in agricultural exports in 1967. 6. Deteriorating finances of public corporations, and finally the 1966/67 budget, which showed a further steep increase in development expen- diture and an uncovered overall deficit of Le 19.3 million, forced the Govern- ment to review its finances. Foreign exchange reserves had reached a low level and in September 1966, the Government approached the IMF for assistance. The subsequent standby arrangement was accompanied by a stabilization program, which inevitably stressed improvements in public sector finances. However, because of elections in March 1967, budget cuts and changes in public corpora- tions were slow to be implemented. The fiscal year 1966/67 ended with a record deficit, although less than originally budgeted, and only the use of counterpart funds from the INF drawing prevented a further upsurge of bank borrowing. However, public finances improved markedly under the military and police regime which ruled Sierra Leone from March 1967 to April 1968.