RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 5•No. 3•JULY – SEPTEMBER•2007 Contents A Time for Life Jackets? Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Putin and Beyond Sovereign Democracy: A New Russian Idea or a PR Project? Andrei Okara 8 ‘Sovereign democracy’ carries two simultaneous messages to Russian society. The first message says that we are a party wielding state power and a sovereign elite, and the sources of our legitimacy are found in Russia, not in the West, like it was during the ‘guided democracy’ of the Yeltsin era. Second, being a power-wielding force, we are the guarantors of Russia’s sovereignty and survival in the context of globalization and other external super-threats. Russia Today: Up the Down Staircase Vladislav Inozemtsev 21 The year 2008 will be problematic because the bureaucratic class is divided. One part of the bureaucracy, which has gained control over substantial assets, is ready in principle to formally change the image of bureaucrats for the status of businessmen. The other part of the bureaucracy, which has recently gained access to state funds, or acts as a parasite on the manage- ment of financial flows, fears any changes. Free from Morality, Or What Russia Believes In Today Svetlana Babayeva 34 The vacuum of ideas, compounded with the insecurity of material status (the Russian market still remains an unpredictable place), makes it impossible to set and fulfill objectives (materialize one’s dreams) or cause aggression or unwillingness to make progress. People have developed the ability to “enjoy the moment”, but the resultant movement lacks both vector and meaning. Russian Federalism and Evolution of Self-Determination Ivan Sukhov 46 The pattern of informal regulation of the relationship between the federal center and constituent territories that has been adopted in Russia now is reminiscent of a decaying ancient Rome that did not feel squeamish about handing over border provinces to barbarian federates. Contents The World Disorder The European World After 1989 Timofei Bordachev 64 The regional and global consequences of the present “neighborly” miscom- munications between Berlin, London, Paris, Warsaw and Moscow may eventually exceed any massacre, such as in Africa for example, or some other global catastrophe. An unbalanced and weak Europe will itself become a theater of military-political actions for countries and non-state actors, whose conduct is far from the one accepted in the Old World. The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness Thomas Graham 75 Current fears of Russia are less a reflection of Russian strength than of Western weakness and insecurities. Ironically, this growing fear and distrust of Russia come at a time when Russia is arguably less threatening to the West, and the United States in particular, than it has been at any time since the end of the Second World War. Is a New Cold War Imminent? Alexei Arbatov 84 The West is faced with the difficult problem of choosing a policy toward Russia in the course of its long, deep and very contradictory transformation. Until now, the U.S. and many of its allies have been going from one extreme to another over this issue: from high hopes to bitter disillusionment, from excessive involvement to utter indifference and disregard, and from enthusiasm to suspicions and hostility. Russia: The Latecomer to the G8 Martin G. Gilman 98 Right now, the only serious threat to the U.S. dollar’s international dominance is the euro. Even so, the Russian ruble has come a long way since the 1998 default, and it is about time for the perceptions to catch up with the new real- ity. If only politics would cooperate, both the international role of the ruble and Russia’s rightful place in the economic G8 would be assured. Remapping Eurasia? Kosovo as a Test for Russia Jan Charnogursky 110 In global politics, moral considerations are often sacrificed to state interests or specific goals. But in the case of Kosovo, the situation is such that main- tenance of moral principles, including the threat of using the veto power, completely corresponds to Russia’s interests. Two Helsinki Principles and an ‘Atlas of Conflicts’ Vladimir Kazimirov 121 Any recognition of a state is a political act: its legal effects rarely go beyond the framework of relations between two particular entities.The Soviet Union’s administrative borders were sometimes rather arbitrary. Today, by a quirk, Westerners, who reject all things Soviet, uphold the administrative borders that existed during the Soviet Union. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 5 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2007 Contents Russian Diplomatic Puzzles Nuclear Terrorism Remains a Credible Threat in the CIS Andrei Novikov 128 Within the next few years, the majority of energy dependent countries will take an even stronger interest in Central Asia. Competition will grow and possibly be accompanied by military-political pressure, including the use of force. Nor can one rule out the possibility of terrorist acts with the use of nuclear weapons or the threat of their use as a means of acquiring alterna- tive energy sources and placing them under control. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: What Next? Alexander Lukin 140 The United States’ political image in Central Asia, especially after the prob- lems with Uzbekistan, has been considerably undermined. The majority of Central Asian countries understand that political orientation toward Washington may bring about many problems at home. The Islam Factor in Russia’s Foreign Policy Alexei Malashenko 157 Attempts by Putin’s Russia for rapprochement with the Moslem world have not allayed mutual distrust. Both Moscow and the Moslem capitals seem to view their mutual sympathy as a showoff of unity, and as a way to confuse the West and perhaps even make it resentful, as neither party has been suc- cessful in romancing it. Problems and Prospects of Iranian-Russian Relations Mehdi Sanaie 171 While Iran perceives its relations with Russia through the prism of interna- tional politics and gives secondary importance to purely bilateral issues, Moscow emphasizes bilateralism and does not need Teheran as a strong international partner. The Russian authorities have put an upper limit on relations with Iran even at the regional level. Russia and the EU to Negotiate a New Cooperation Agreement Sergei Sokolov 171 Neither Russia nor the EU has a coherent idea about the place that they should have in their respective “systems of coordinates.” So both sides will probably not talk about the strategic aspects of their relations but will engage in horse trading, and lobbying for specific trade, economic and political interests. Its outcome will largely hinge on the intellectual, personnel, and administrative resources of the negotiating teams, their coherence, and professionalism. Uneasy Neighborhood A Splintered Ukraine Roy Medvedev 194 Efforts to unite Ukraine around the ideology of Ukrainian ethnic nationalism have proven futile. The complete fiasco of the ideas of Rukh was quite obvi- ous way back in the 1990s. The phenomenon of Victor Yushchenko, who tried to give nationalism a new lease of life, rests on support gained from external forces, first and foremost, and also on support given to Yulia Tymoshenko’s populist movement that harvested votes in the cities and districts where an overt ethnic nationalism would not have had any chances otherwise. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 5 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2007 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO Industrial Investors Ltd. Alexei ARBATOV Mikhail KOZHOKIN (in a personal capacity) Andrei KUZYAEV Lev BELOUSOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. (Deputy Chairman) Sergei LAVROV Vladimir RYZHKOV Boris KUZYK C. 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(in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK New Concepts and Programs Carl BILDT Alexander LIVSHITS (Germany) Holding Industrial Company (Sweden) Vladimir LUKIN Anatoly TORKUNOV Valery OKULOV Vladimir GRIGORYEV Lord William WALLACE (in a personal capacity) Fyodor LUKYANOV Aeroflot JSC (Editor-in-Chief) (Great Britain) James HOGE (U.S.A) Ruben VARDANYAN Vladimir MAU Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Troika-Dialog Group Igor IVANOV (in a personal capacity) (in a personal capacity) Thierry de MONTBRIAL (France) Igor YURGENS Simon VAYNSHTOK Karl KAISER (Germany) Transneft JSC Vyacheslav NIKONOV Alexander ZHUKOV Irina KHAKAMADA (Deputy Chairman) Sergei ZVEREV Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV Helmut KOHL (Germany) Sistema JSFC BOARD OF ADVISORS Anatoly ADAMISHIN Leonid GRIGORIEV Mark SHKUNDIN Olga BUTORINA Alexander LOMANOV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY PUBLISHED BY Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS Newspapers: Izvestia, Moscow News, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Sovershenno Sekretno, •Trud, Vremya Novostey RUSSIAN EDITION News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti, Rosbalt IS PUBLISHED •Radio Station Echo of Moscow WITH PARTICIPATION OF • LEGAL PR PARTNER CONSULTANCY FOREIGN AFFAIRS KROS Public Relations KLISHIN & PARTNERS Company Attorneys at Law Editorial Office: 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov Moscow 103873, Russia Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 Director Executive Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition e-mail: [email protected] Irina Palekhova