Navruz Project
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SAND2006-6637C THE NAVRUZ PROJECT: Cooperative, transboundary monitoring, data sharing and modeling of water resources in Central Asia H. D. Passell Sandia NationalLaboratories P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA V. Solodukhin, S. Khazekhber, V. Pozniak Institute of Nuclear Physics Almaty, Kazakhstan I. Vasiliev, V. Alekhina Institute of Physics Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan Akram Djuraev, Anvar Djuraev Atomic Energy Agency, Tajik Academy of Sciences Dushanbe, Tajikistan U. Salikhbaev, R. Radyuk Institute of Nuclear Physics Tashkent, Uzbekistan D. Suozzi Sandia NationalLaboratories P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA D. S. Barber Sandia NationalLaboratories P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA ABSTRACT The NavruzProject engages scientists from nuclear physics research institutes and water science institutions in the Central Asia Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and Sandia National Laboratories. The project uses standardized methods to monitor basic water quality parameters, radionuclides, and metals in the SyrDarya and Amu Darya rivers. Phase I of the project was initiated in2000 with 15 sampling points in each of the four countries with sample analysis performed for over 100 parameters. Phase II of the project began in2003 and expanded sampling to include at least 30 points in each country in an effort to characterize “hot spots” and to identify sources. Phase III of the project began in 2006 and will integrate decision support modeling with the existing monitoring. Overall, the project addresses four maingoals: tocreate collaboration among Central Asian scientists andcountries; to help increase capabilities inCentral Asian nations for sustainable water resources management; to provide a scientific basis for supporting nuclear transparency and non proliferation in the region; and to help reduce the threat of conflict in Central Asia over water resources. Contamination of these rivers is a resultof growing population, urbanization, and agricultural activities, as well as radioactive contamination from a legacy of uranium miningand related activities of the former Soviet Union. The project focuses on waterborne radionuclides and metals because of the importance of these contaminants to public health and political stability in Central Asia. 1 INTRODUCTION Political, cultural, and economic stability in Central Asia requires a reliable and sustainable supply of high-quality fresh water for agriculture and direct human consumption. Fresh water in Central Asia is provided on the surface by an international, transboundary riversystem, andso the most effective management of the resource will result from a collaborative, international, transboundary approach. Freshwater resource management requires long-term, basin-wide data sets shared among all transboundary partners and integration with decision support systems that allow access by a wide range of users, including scientists, policy makers, and the public. Central Asia’s history of extensive uranium mining and fabrication highlights its high potential for radionuclide and metals pollution in regional riversystems. Both radionuclides and metals pose a serious long-term public health risk in the region. Data collected as part of the first two phases of the Navruz Project (2000 - 2006) show significant radioactive contamination levels at localized points in the region, due primarily to the Soviet-era legacy of uranium mining and waste processing. These contaminants represent a significant threat to public health and regional security, since natural events (such as heavy rainfall and flooding) or terrorist activities could result in the accidental or intentional movementof radioactive materials into public water supply systems. Interestingly, results from across the basin do not indicate widespread, serious contamination problems as many researchers expected. The monitoring anddata sharing system developed in the Navruz Project provides both baseline data and the international scientific infrastructure for tracking and addressing waterborne radionuclide contamination, however it is propagated. Preliminary results from the Navruz Project demonstrate the needfor expanded joint scientific studies to more completely understand fate and transport of all kinds of contaminants. The data from the project, along with numerous documents describing the project and some publications that have come from the project, are available to all at the following website: https://waterportal.sandia.gov/centasia. Founding partner institutions in the Navruz Project include the Institute of Nuclear Physics inAlmaty, Kazakhstan; the Institute of Physics in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; the Atomic Energy Agency of the Academy of Sciences in Dushanbe, Tajikistan; the Institute of Nuclear Physics in Ulugbek, Uzbekistan; the Center for Non-proliferation Studies of the Monterey Institute of International Studies; and Sandia National Laboratories Cooperative MonitoringCenter. Current efforts are aimed at engaging other institutions throughout Central Asia. METHODS One of the great obstacles intransboundary river studies and transboundary river management has been the different technical methods forsampling and data collection used by different ripariannations and institutions, often rendering the resulting data poorly comparable across transboundary basins. Planning for the Navruz Project began in 1999 and was quickly followed in 2000 with a meeting of project partners inUzbekistan to standardize methods for field data collection, sampling, sample handling, sample analysis, and data sharing. Those efforts culminated ina collaboratively developed, transboundary sampling andanalysis plan (Passell et al., 2002), which is available at the website shown above. Sampling and data collection began in 2000. Three sampling events occurred as part of Navruz 1, in the fall, spring and fall of 2000-2001. The monitoring occurred at 15 sampling sites in each country (for a total of 60 across the basin) on the main stems and the major tributaries of the Amu Darya and Syr Daryarivers. A map showing the approximate locations of the original 15 sampling locations is shown in Figure 1. Actual sampling locations are shown in the Appendix, and are recorded in Passell et al. (2002). Basic water quality parameters (Table 1) were collected using identical water quality data collection instruments manufactured by Hydrolab, Inc. Radionuclide and metals data (Tables 2 & 3) were generated usinga variety of radioanalytical methods, quality assurance and control approaches, and other collaborative efforts described elsewhere (Passell et al. 2002, Barber et al., 2003). Analytical instruments included alpha & beta counters, gamma spectrometers, activation analysis (AA), andatom emission spectrometry with inductive-coupled plasma (AES-ICP). Sampling media included water, 2 water dissolve, bottom sediments, aquatic vegetation, and nearby soils. Data were collected on more than 100 parameters over those 5 environmental media. One of the goals of the Navruz Project has been to develop a long-term data set for rivers of the Aral Sea Basin. In Navruz 2, seasonal data andsample collection and analysis continued at the original 15 locations in each country and was expanded to include a second 15 locations in each country. The second 15 locations were chosen by each partner institution to help characterize “hot spots”, orareas of high radioactivities, and to help identify the sources of those hot spots. In Navruz 3, data and sample collection and analysis continued at the original 15 locations as a way of continuing the development of the long-term data set. Sampling anddata collection also continuedat the second 15 locations, although some of those locations changed as understanding of the hot spots and sources evolved. Navruz 3 also initiated transboundary collaboration among the partners onsystem dynamics decision support modeling in the Aral Sea Basin. This modeling approach, tested in various settings in the U.S. and Asia (Passell et al., 2002; Tidwell et al., 2004), employs system dynamics models with an interactive interface. The interactive capability - meaning that users can change variables, run the model, and view output in real time - makes this approach applicable to resource management, public education, policy making, and legislation, by bothscientists and non-scientists. Models are built and runon laptops, variables can be set and reset by users, and output can be generated in seconds to minutes, allowing real time assessment of different management strategies andscenarios. Modeling efforts as part of Navruz 3 are just beginning as this writing takes place. A weakness in the existing Navruz Project has been the absence of consistent river discharge data. This absence has been due tothe physical difficulties andexpenses associated with collecting these data. Gidromet agencies in each of the Central Asian countries once collected regular discharge data and still have much of the capability to do so, but since the collapse of the Soviet Union the capabilities and activities of these agencies have decreased. Navruz 3 will also broaden the current Central Asia collaboration to include Gidromet agencies in each of the countries. Table 1. Basic Water Quality Parameters Time Discharge Water Dissolved Dissolved Specific Salinity TDS Depth (m) pH Redox (m3/s) Temp. Oxygen Oxygen Conductivity (g/L) (g/L) Potential (deg C) (% sat- (mg/L) (OS/cm) (mV) uration) Table 2. Radionuclide Parameters Alpha activity Beta activity