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Workpoint Entertainment COMPANY UPDATE Thailand Workpoint Entertainment (WORK.BK/WORK TB)* Neutral‧Maintained ประมาณการ 3Q61: กาไรจะเพํ มขิ่ นึ้ QoQ แต่ลดลง YoY Price as of 8 Nov 2018 32.25 Event 12M target price (Bt/shr) 34.25 ประมาณการผลประกอบการงวด 3Q61 Unchanged/Revised up(down)(%) (31.5) lmpact Upside/downside (%) 6.2 อตราการขายเวลาโฆษณาและอั ตราคั ่าโฆษณาทลดลงจะฉดใหี่ ุ ้กาไรในํ 3Q61 ลดลง 66% YoY Key messages เราคาดวากาไรส่ ํ ุทธิของ WORK ใน 3Q61 จะอยทู่ ี่ 127 ลานบาท้ (+10% QoQ, -66% YoY) โดยกาไรทํ ี่ เราคาดกาไรสํ ุทธิของ WORK ในงวด 3Q61 ที่ 127 ลานบาท้ เพ่ิมข้ึน QoQ จะมาจากรายไดท้ ี่เพ่ิมข้ึน 11% QoQ ตามการขายเวลาโฆษณาของ Workpoint TV ที่คาดวา่ (+10% QoQ, -66% YoY) โดยกาไรทํ ี่เพ่ิมข้ึน QoQ จะมาจาก จะเพ่ิมข้ึนจาก 53% ใน 2Q61 เป็น 60% ในขณะที่คาดวาส่ ดสวนั ่ คาใช่ จายในการขายและบร้ ่ ิหาร/ รายไดท้ ี่เพ่ิมข้ึน 11% QoQ ของชองเว่ ิร์คพอยท ์ ทีวี ตามเรตติ้ง ยอดขายจะลดลงจาก 24.7% ใน 2Q61 เป็น 21.4% แตเม่ ื่อเทียบ YoY กาไรในํ 3Q61 จะถูกกดดนจากั ที่เพ่ิมข้ึน แตเม่ ื่อเทียบ YoY กาไรในํ 3Q61 จะถูกกดดนจากั รายไดท้ ี่ลดลง 16% YoY เพราะคาดมีอตราการขายเวลาั รายไดท้ ี่ลดลง 16% YoY เพราะคาดอตราการขายเวลาโฆษณาลดลงจากั 71% ใน 3Q60 และ อตราคาั ่ โฆษณา และอตราคาโฆษณาลดลงั ่ เราไดปร้ ับลดประมาณการ โฆษณาลดลง 9% YoY จาก 82,000 บาท/นาที ใน 3Q60 กาไรปํ ี 2561-62 ลง เนื่องจากกาไรของํ WORK ในงวด 9M61 อยทู่ ี่ 410 ลานบาท้ ที่คาด จะคิดเป็นสดสวนเพั ่ ียง 49% ของ เรายงเปั ็นห่วงว่า WORK จะรักษาเรตติงไว้ ้ได้หรือไม่หลงหยดออกอากาศรายการกั ุ ฬาี ประมาณการกาไรปํ ีน้ีท้งปั ีของเราเทาน่ ้นั ซ่ึงภายหลงการปรั ับ เราคาดวาอ่ ตราการขายเวลาโฆษณาทั ี่เพ่ิมข้ึน QoQ ใน 3Q61 ตามเรตติ้ง (24 ชม.) ของชองเว่ ริ ์คพอยท ์ ทีวี ประมาณการและปรับไปใชราคาเป้ ้ าหมายปี 2562 จะลดลง ที่เพ่ิมข้ึนเป็น 0.87 จาก 0.76 ใน 2Q61 และ 0.80 ใน 3Q60 จากการออกอากาศรายการกฬาี (เอเชี่ยนเกมส์ เหลือ 34.25 บาท (PER 24.5x, -1 S.D) เรายงคงคั าแนะนํ าเพํ ียง 2561) ดงนั ้นั เราจึงคาดวาผลประกอบการนาจะเต่ ่ ิบโตตอเน่ ื่องใน 4Q61 จากรายไดท้ ี่เพ่ิมข้ึนเพราะ "ถือ" WORK รายการกฬาี ดวยเชน้ ่ กนั เพราะมีรายการวอลเลยบอลหญ์ ิงชิงแชมป์ โลก ซ่ึงออกอากาศในเดือนตุลาคม 2561 แตอยางไรกตาม่ ่ ็ เป็นที่นากงวลวา่ ั ่ บริษทจะรั ักษาเรตติ้งเอาไวได้ หร้ ือไมในป่ ีหนาเน้ ื่องจาก i) รายการกฬาี จบลงไปต้งแตั ่ 4Q61 ii) ไมม่ ีรายการดงอยางั ่ "หนากากน้ กรั ้อง ซีซน่ั 1" และ "หนากาก้ Trading data นกรั ้อง ซีซน่ั 2" ซ่ึงไดเรตต้ ิ้งสูงถึง 7.1-7.3 และ iii) การแขงข่ นทั ี่รุนแรงบวกกบการเขั ามาของ้ สื่อดิจิตอล Mkt cap (Btbn/US$mn) 14/356 ปรับลดประมาณการกาไรปํ ี 2561-62 ลงเพอสะทื่ ้อนผลประกอบการ 1H61 Outstanding shares (mn) 442 Foreign ownership (mn) 52 เนื่องจากกาไรของํ WORK ในงวด 9M61 อยทู่ ี่ 410 ลานบาท้ หรือคิดเป็นแค่ 49% ของประมาณการกาไรํ 3M avg. daily trading (mn) 3 ท้งปั ีของเราเทาน่ ้นั เราจึงปรับลดประมาณการกาไรปํ ี 2561-62 ลง โดยปรับประมาณการรายไดของชอง้ ่ 52-week trading range (Bt) 29.25 – 105.00 เวริ ์คพอยท ์ ทีว ี ในปี 2561-62 ลง 8% - 17% ตามลาดํ บั จากการปรับลดสมมติฐานการขายเวลาโฆษณา Performance (%) 3M 6M 12M และอตราคาโฆษณาั ่ สงผลให่ ประมาณการกาไรส้ ํ ุทธิปี 2561-62 ของเราลดลงจากเดิม 35% - 40% เหลือ Absolute -17.3 -46.5 -68.8 550 ลานบาทในป้ ี 2561 (-39% YoY) และ 590 ลานบาทในป้ ี 2562 (+7% YoY) Relative -16.1 -43.8 -68.4 Valuation & Action Quarterly EPS ภายหลงการปรั ับลดประมาณการกาไรของํ WORK ลง และปรับไปใชราคาเป้ ้ าหมายปี 2562 จะลดลง 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q เหลือ 34.25 บาท (PER 24.5x, -1 S.D) ซ่ึงเหลือ upside จากราคาตลาดอีกไมมาก่ ดงนั ้นเราจั ึงยงคงั 2016 0.07 0.32 0.26 (0.17) คาแนะนํ าเพํ ียง "ถือ" WORK. 2017 0.41 0.89 0.90 (0.05) 2018 0.38 0.26 NA NA Risks รายไดจาก้ Workpoint TV ต่ากวาทํ ่ ี่เราคาดไว ้ Share price chart 110 100 0 90 Key financials and valuations 80 (20) 70 Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17A Dec-18F Dec-19F 60 (40) Revenue (Btmn) 2,434 2,667 3,853 3,631 3,482 50 Gross Profit (Btmn) 1,058 1,162 2,111 1,543 1,551 40 (60) 30 EBIT (Btmn) 294 339 1,252 711 750 20 (80) Net Profit (Btmn) 150 199 904 550 590 Nov-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Share Price Price performance relative to SET Normalized Profit (Btmn) 150 199 904 550 590 Source: SET EPS (Bt) 0.36 0.48 2.06 1.25 1.34 DPS (Bt) 0.34 0.27 1.39 0.87 0.94 EPS growth (%) (698.3) 32.1 332.8 (39.5) 7.2 Piyathida Sonthisombat 66.2658.8888 Ext.8852 P/E (x) 121.4 92.4 40.9 25.9 24.1 [email protected] P/B (x) 6.55 6.15 8.32 3.03 2.90 EV/EBITDA (x) 22.3 20.3 21.3 10.3 10.3 Net debt/Equity (x) (0.1) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.6 1.6 2.7 2.9 Return on Average Equity (%) 6.7 6.9 24.3 12.0 12.3 Source: Company data, KGI Research *The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. 1 November 9, 2018 http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT <GO> Please see back page for disclaimer Thailand Workpoint Entertainment Figure 1: WORK’s 3Q18 earnings preview Bt mn 3Q18F 2Q17 YoY (%) 2Q18 QoQ (%) 9M18F 9M17 YoY (%) Revenue 936 1,114 (16.0) 841 11.2 2,662 3,086 (13.8) Gross Profit 361 666 (45.7) 356 1.5 1,123 1,784 (37.1) Operating Expenses (200) (200) 0.2 (208) (3.8) (596) (560) 6.5 Operating Profit 161 466 (65.4) 148 9.1 527 1,224 (57.0) Operating EBITDA 339 588 (42.4) 300 12.8 994 1,585 (37.3) Other incomes/expenses 14 20 (31.0) 15 (5.7) 34 25 32.6 Interest Expense (12) (23) (45.6) (14) (13.8) (43) (71) (39.4) Current taxation (33) (89) (63.6) (30) 9.4 (100) (249) (59.6) Minorities (3) (1) 160.4 (3) 8.9 (8) (4) 96.8 Extra items - - NM - NM - - NM Net Profit 127 373 (65.9) 116 9.9 408 925 (55.9) EPS (Bt) 0.29 0.89 (67.5) 0.26 9.9 0.93 2.20 (58.0) Percent 3Q18F 2Q17 YoY (ppts) 2Q18 QoQ (ppts) 9M18F 9M17 YoY (%) Gross margin 38.6 59.8 (17.5) 42.3 (3.7) 42.2 57.8 (15.6) SG&A/sales 21.4 17.9 6.8 24.7 (3.3) 22.4 18.1 4.3 Net profit margin 13.6 33.5 (19.7) 13.7 (0.2) 15.3 30.0 (14.6) Source: Company data, KGI Research Figure 2: Key assumptions Figure 3: Financial highlights Key assumptions2018F Change 2019F Change 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F (Btmn) Previous New (%) Previous New (%) Revenue (Bt bn) Sales and service revenue 3,896 3,631 (6.8) 4,090 3,482 (14.9) Old forecast 2.4 2.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 TV 3,442 3,177 (7.7) 3,569 2,961 (17.0) New forecast 2.4 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.5 Concert/plays 200 200 - 250 250 - Event 120 120 - 120 120 - Change (%) - - - (6.8) (14.9) Others 134 134 - 151 151 - TV segment Costs (Bt bn) Workpoint TV (Bt mn) 3,195 2,930 (8.3) 3,305 2,697 (18.4) Old forecast 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 Long term contracts 1,980 1,540 (22.2) 2,090 1,200 (42.6) New forecast 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 Short term packages 1,215 1,390 14.4 1,215 1,497 23.2 Change (%) - - - 8.5 1.1 On line TV (Bt mn) 232 232 0.1 244 244 0.0 Licensing (Bt mn) 15 15 - 20 20 - SG&A (Bt bn) Old forecast 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 New forecast 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Change (%) - - - (0.1) (0.1) Net profit (Btbn) Old forecast 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 New forecast 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 Change (%) - - - (34.6) (39.9) Source: KGI Research Source: Company data, KGI Research *The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. 2 November 9, 2018 http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT <GO> Please see back page for disclaimer Thailand Workpoint Entertainment Figure 3: Company profile Figure 4: Breakdown of sales and services revenues Workpoint Entertainment Public Company Limited (WORK), is a digital TV Breakdown of revenues, percent 0.15.2 0.74.7 1.22.1 0.1 1.83.2 0.35.2 1.01.9 0.82.7 4.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 3.5 5.6 3.7 2.7 8.1 3.8 3.1 5.7 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.3 operator operating under NBTC’s license. In addition to its TV business, 32.7 the company provides other media such as movies, publishing, 3.7 concert/plays and event marketing. However, the company’s core 91.1 91.1 91.3 91.8 92.7 revenue comes from its TV business which represented 90.2% of total 90.7 89.0 87.5 84.8 86.6 63.6 sales and services in 2017, followed by concert/plays and events which accounted for 4.8% and 3.6%, respectively. 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F TV Concert Event Others Source: Company data Source: Company data, KGI Research Figure 5: Workpoint TV's rating Figure 6: TV revenues Rating, points TV revenues, Bt mn 1.20 1,022.8 1,035.1 1.10 810.4 1.00 730.7 738.9 774.5 746.7 707.0 682.1 0.90 495.9 458.0 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F Source: Nielsen Source: Company data, KGI Research Figure 7: Total sales and services revenues Figure 8: Net profit Total sales and services revenues, Bt mn Net profit, Bt mn 372.8 380.0 1,114.2 1,163.4 935.6 885.1 841.3 801.7 795.7 808.8 766.1 173.4 165.6 546.7 133.9 115.6 127.1 489.4 108.0 28.7 (21.2) (72.0) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F 3Q18F Source: Company data, KGI Research Source: Company data Figure 9: Company’s PER band Figure 10: Company’s PBV PER, times PBV, times 180 12.0 +2 sd = 128.0x 140 10.0 +2 sd = 8.3x +1 sd = 94.2x 100 8.0 +1 sd = 6.8x 60 6.0 Average = 60.4x 20 4.0 Average = 5.3x -1 sd = 26.6x -1 sd = 3.7x (20) 2.0 -2 sd = -7.2x -2 sd = 2.2x (60) 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KGI Research Source: KGI Research *The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.
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