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Workpoint Entertainment Target Price: THB60.00 Price: THB53.00 the Best Variety TV Channel in Thailand Market Cap: Usd631m Bloomberg Ticker: WORK TB

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Workpoint Entertainment Target Price: THB60.00 Price: THB53.00 the Best Variety TV Channel in Thailand Market Cap: Usd631m Bloomberg Ticker: WORK TB Company Update Thailand 9 February 2017 Communications | Media Buy (Maintained) Workpoint Entertainment Target Price: THB60.00 Price: THB53.00 The Best Variety TV Channel In Thailand Market Cap: USD631m Bloomberg Ticker: WORK TB We continue to rate Workpoint as our Top Buy in the media sector with a Share Data new DCF-based THB60.00 TP (from THB46.00, 13% upside) on its: Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 58.6m/1.65m 1. Well-known new style creativity and innovative TV content; 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 28.5 - 53.3 2. Impressive increase in its TV rating to 1.48 in Jan-17, which is already above its full year target of 1.4; Free Float (%) 34 3. Raising assumptions for TV rating to 1.55 and ad rates to Shares outstanding (m) 417 THB67,000/min (+20% YoY); Estimated Return 13% 4. Successful penetration of social media viewers; 5. Exponential future earnings growth. Shareholders (%) Prapas Cholsaranon 25.9 Workpoint Entertainment’s (Workpoint) TV rating hit an all-time high at Phanya Nirankul 25.9 1.48 during January, exceeding its full year target of 1.4, thanks to the overwhelming popularity of its several new programmes particularly The Mask Mindo Asia Investments Limited 10.7 Singer Thailand (Figure 4). The rating of The Mask Singer Thailand now stands Share Performance (%) at 8.38, higher than that of any prime-time drama series – the country’s mainstream programmes – aired currently. The Mask Singer Thailand Season YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m 1 generated THB100,000/minute(min) of ad rates. Workpoint plans to double Absolute 20.5 19.1 38.6 45.2 33.3 Season 2’s ad rates to THB200,000/min. We note that Seasons 1 and 2 of the Relative 17.9 18.4 33.3 41.0 12.2 series should end by March and August, respectively. Source: Bloomberg Digital media boosts its bottom line. Beside TV, which is the main screening Workpoint Entertainment (WORK TB) for its programme, Workpoint is also focusing on digital media such as Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 56 120 YouTube, Facebook, and Line TV. Currently, Workpoint is leading in this 51 110 segment among Thai terrestrial TV operators in terms of YouTube subscribers, 46 100 41 90 Facebook followers etc. The company plans to boost revenue from this source 36 80 to more than THB120m this year vs THB50-70m last year. 31 70 1826 60 16 2017’s profit to grow 282% Due to an impressive increase in its TV ratings in 14 12 January stemmed from The Mask Singer Thailand, we estimate Workpoint’s 10 8 average TV rating at 1.55 (higher than the company’s guidance of 1.4). Average 6 4 2 ad rate/min, therefore, is raised to THB67,000, from THB60,000 (+12%), which Vol m is above its target of THB62,000. As the majority of its cost is fixed, a slight Apr-16 Oct-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Dec-16 increase in ad rates can significantly improve net margin. Aug-16 Maintain BUY with a new TP of THB60.00. A hiccup in its earnings growth last Source: Bloomberg year was due to a strict 30-day mourning period of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej. For this year, we expect a sharp rebound in its earnings from a low- base in 2016. Moving forward, we assume a 10% increase in its annual ad rates and improved operating leverage. Hence, net profit should grow faster at 36% in 2018 and over 25% thereafter. Our new TP of THB60 is based on DCF with a 9.3% discount rate and 2% terminal growth. Workpoint remains our Top Buy for the media sector. Downside risks to our forecast include: i. Strong competition in the digital TV (DTV) space; ii. Pace of adex recovery. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (THBm) 2,053 2,388 2,493 3,898 4,448 Reported net profit (THBm) (16) 164 143 547 743 Recurring net profit (THBm) (16) 164 143 547 743 Recurring net profit growth (%) (106.2) 0.0 (12.4) 281.7 35.7 Recurring EPS (THB) (0.06) 0.39 0.34 1.31 1.78 Analysts DPS (THB) na 0.34 0.24 0.92 1.25 Naruedom Mujjalinkool Recurring P/E (x) na 135 154 40 30 +66 2862 9229 P/B (x) 8.51 7.87 7.80 7.37 6.86 P/CF (x) 22.7 37.2 32.9 22.0 18.0 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) na 0.6 0.5 1.7 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 40.0 27.7 28.4 17.9 15.7 Return on average equity (%) (1.0) 7.3 5.1 18.8 23.9 Wanida Geisler Net debt to equity (%) 0.4 net cash net cash net cash net cash +66 2862 9748 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (25.3) 12.1 0.0 [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Workpoint Entertainment Thailand Company Update 9 February 2017 Communications | Media Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on : 2017-02-07. Asia Financial summary Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Thailand Recurring EPS (THB) (0.06) 0.39 0.34 1.31 1.78 Communications EPS (THB) (0.06) 0.39 0.34 1.31 1.78 Workpoint Entertainment DPS (THB) 0.00 0.34 0.24 0.92 1.25 Bloomberg WORK TB BVPS (THB) 6.23 6.73 6.80 7.19 7.72 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 266 417 417 417 417 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F DCF Recurring P/E (x) na 135 154 40 30 P/E (x) na 135 154 40 30 Key drivers P/B (x) 8.51 7.87 7.80 7.37 6.86 i. Sustainable growth in its TV rating FCF Yield (%) 3.0 0.8 2.1 3.7 4.7 ii. High potential to increase its advertising rate Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.7 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 40.0 27.7 28.4 17.9 15.7 Key risks EV/EBIT (x) na 81.5 97.0 32.5 25.3 i. Sluggish advertising expenditure (adex) ii. High competition in the DTV business iii. Massive programming costs and a price war Income statement (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover 2,053 2,388 2,493 3,898 4,448 Company Profile Gross profit 619 1,015 1,113 1,892 2,204 Workpoint Entertainment’s (Workpoint) is in the EBITDA 349 768 762 1,206 1,365 entertainment industry consisting of television shows, Depreciation and amortisation (391) (506) (539) (542) (518) publishing, animations, movies, concert and showbiz, Operating profit (42) 261 223 664 847 and event marketing. Net interest (101) (132) (106) (81) (68) Income from associates & JVs 52 14 0 15 16 Pre-tax profit (34) 210 179 684 928 Taxation 19 (45) (36) (137) (186) Minority interests (1) (1) 0 0 0 Recurring net profit (16) 164 143 547 743 Cash flow (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Change in working capital 293 (79) 7 (83) (29) Cash flow from operations 621 595 672 1,004 1,227 Capex (203) (425) (210) (180) (180) Cash flow from investing activities (678) (1,083) (850) (591) (582) Proceeds from issue of shares 202 1,042 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 (93) (100) (383) (520) Cash flow from financing activities 626 702 (241) (474) (570) Cash at beginning of period 288 856 1,071 652 592 Net change in cash 569 214 (418) (60) 75 Ending balance cash 857 1,070 653 592 667 Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total cash and equivalents 856 1,272 853 793 868 Tangible fixed assets 963 1,325 1,390 1,418 1,440 Intangible assets 2,414 2,281 2,137 1,947 1,787 Total investments 199 98 119 133 138 Total other assets 142 137 141 155 160 Total assets 5,028 5,614 5,131 5,206 5,260 Short-term debt 250 0 0 0 0 Total long-term debt 614 540 450 400 300 Other liabilities 1,595 1,212 1,016 819 627 Total liabilities 3,314 2,786 2,276 2,187 2,017 Shareholders' equity 1,658 2,808 2,836 3,000 3,223 Minority interests 56 19 19 19 19 Total equity 1,714 2,828 2,855 3,020 3,242 Net debt 8 (731) (403) (393) (568) Total liabilities & equity 5,028 5,614 5,131 5,206 5,260 Key metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) (5.3) 16.3 4.4 56.4 14.1 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (106.0) 0.0 (12.4) 281.7 35.7 Gross margin (%) 30.2 42.5 44.6 48.5 49.6 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 17.0 32.2 30.6 30.9 30.7 Net profit margin (%) (0.8) 6.9 5.8 14.0 16.7 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 Capex/sales (%) 9.9 17.8 8.4 4.6 4.0 Interest cover (x) (0.42) 1.97 2.11 8.24 12.44 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Workpoint Entertainment Thailand Company Update 9 February 2017 Communications | Media See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Workpoint Entertainment Thailand Company Update 9 February 2017 Communications | Media Maintain BUY with new TP of THB60.00.
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