Egypt Gets Muscular Over Nile Dam

SIRC Newsletter part one, 2014 Published articles here are views of the authors

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By Cam McGrath Reprint | | Print | Send by email

Houseboats line the Nile bank in Cairo. Some 85 million Egyptians depend on the Nile for water. Credit: Cam McGrath/IPS.

CAIRO, Mar 21 2014 (IPS) - When Egypt’s then-president Mohamed Morsi said in June 2013 that “all options” including military intervention, were on the table if Ethiopia continued to develop dams on the Nile River, many dismissed it as posturing. But experts claim Cairo is deadly serious about defending its historic water allotment, and if Ethiopia proceeds with construction of what is set to become Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, a military strike is not out of the question.

Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have soured since Ethiopia began construction on the 4.2 billion dollar Grand Renaissance Dam in 2011.

Egypt fears the new dam, slated to begin operation in 2017, will reduce the downstream flow of the Nile, which 85 million Egyptians rely on for almost all of their water needs. Officials in the Ministry of Irrigation claim Egypt will lose 20 to 30 percent of its share of Nile water and nearly a third of the electricity generated by its Aswan High Dam.

"Hydroelectric dams don’t work unless you let the water through.” -- Richard Tutwiler, a specialist in water resource management at the American University in Cairo

Ethiopia insists the Grand Renaissance Dam and its 74 billion cubic metre reservoir at the headwaters of the Blue Nile will have no adverse effect on Egypt’s water share. It hopes the 6,000 megawatt hydroelectric project will lead to energy self-sufficiency and catapult the country out of grinding poverty.

“Egypt sees its Nile water share as a matter of national security,” strategic analyst Ahmed Abdel Halim tells IPS. “To Ethiopia, the new dam is a source of national pride, and essential to its economic future.”

The dispute has heated up since Ethiopia began diverting a stretch of the Nile last May, with some Egyptian par- liamentarians calling for sending commandos or arming local insurgents to sabotage the dam project unless Ethi- opia halts construction.

Ethiopia’s state-run television responded last month with a report on a visit to the site by army commanders, who voiced their readiness to “pay the price” to defend the partially-built hydro project.

Citing a pair of colonial-era treaties, Egypt argues that it is entitled to no less than two-thirds of the Nile’s water and has veto power over any upstream water projects such as dams or irrigation networks.

Accords drawn up by the British in 1929 and amended in 1959 divvied up the Nile’s waters between Egypt and Sudan without ever consulting the upstream states that were the source of those waters.

The 1959 agreement awarded Egypt 55.5 billion cubic metres of the Nile’s 84 billion cubic metre average annual flow, while Sudan received 18.5 billion cubic metres. Another 10 billion cubic metres is lost to evaporation in Lake Nasser, which was created by Egypt’s Aswan High Dam in the 1970s, leaving barely a drop for the nine other states that share the Nile’s waters.

While the treaty’s water allocations appear gravely unfair to upstream Nile states, analysts point out that unlike the mountainous equatorial nations, which have alternative sources of water, the desert countries of Egypt and Sudan rely almost entirely on the Nile for their water needs.

“One reason for the high level of anxiety is that nobody really knows how this dam is going to affect Egypt’s water share,” Richard Tutwiler, a specialist in water resource management at the American University in Cairo (AUC), tells IPS. “Egypt is totally dependent on the Nile. Without it, there is no Egypt.”

Egypt’s concerns appear warranted as its per capita water share is just 660 cubic metres, among the world’s lowest. The country’s population is forecast to double in the next 50 years, putting even further strain on scarce water resources.

But upstream African nations have their own growing populations to feed, and the thought of tapping the Nile for their agriculture or drinking water needs is all too tempting.

The desire for a more equitable distribution of Nile water rights resulted in the 2010 Entebbe Agreement, which replaces water quotas with a clause that permits all activities provided they do not “significantly” impact the water security of other Nile Basin states. Five upstream countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda – signed the accord. Burundi signed a year later.

Egypt rejected the new treaty outright. But after decades of wielding its political clout to quash the water projects of its impoverished upstream neighbours, Cairo now finds itself in the uncomfortable position of watching its mas- tery over the Nile’s waters slip through its fingers.

“Ethiopia’s move was unprecedented. Never before has an upstream state unilaterally built a dam without downstream approval,” Ayman Shabaana of the Cairo-based Institute for Africa Studies had told IPS last June. “If other upstream countries follow suit, Egypt will have a serious water emergency on its hands.”

Ethiopia has sought to assure its downstream neighbours that the Grand Renaissance Dam is a hydroelectric project, not an irrigation scheme. But the dam is part of a broader scheme that would see at least three more dams on the Nile.

Cairo has dubbed the proposal “provocative”.

Egypt has appealed to international bodies to force Ethiopia to halt construction of the dam until its downstream impact can be determined. And while officials here hope for a diplomatic solution to diffuse the crisis, security sources say Egypt’s military leadership is prepared to use force to protect its stake in the river. Related IPS Articles

• Nile Delta Disappearing Beneath the Sea

• Egypt’s Generals Face a Watery Battle

• Inhospitable Flows the Nile

Former president Hosni Mubarak floated plans for an air strike on any dam that Ethiopia built on the Nile, and in 2010 established an airbase in southeastern Sudan as a staging point for just such an operation, according to leaked emails from the global intelligence company Stratfor posted on Wikileaks.

Egypt’s position was weakened in 2012 when Sudan, its traditional ally on Nile water issues, rescinded its opposition to the Grand Renaissance Dam and instead threw its weight behind the project. Analysts attribute Khartoum’s change of heart to the country’s revised domestic priorities following the secession of South Sudan a year earlier.

According to AUC’s Tutwiler, once Sudan felt assured that the dam would have minimal impact on its water allotment, the mega-project’s other benefits became clear. The dam is expected to improve flood control, expand downstream irrigation capacity and, crucially, allow Ethiopia to export surplus electricity to power-hungry Sudan via a cross-border link. Some studies indicate that properly managed hydroelectric dams in Ethiopia could mitigate damaging floods and increase Egypt’s overall water share. Storing water in the cooler climes of Ethiopia would ensure far less water is lost to evaporation than in the desert behind the Aswan High Dam.

Egypt, however, is particularly concerned about the loss of water share during the five to ten years it will take to fill the dam’s reservoir. Tutwiler says it is unlikely that Ethiopia will severely choke or stop the flow of water.

“Ethiopia needs the electricity…and hydroelectric dams don’t work unless you let the water through.”

Briefing by UN Secretary General Special Representative for Somalia Posted: 21 Mar 2014 10:49 AM PDT The UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Somalia, Nicholas Kay, gave a 22 minute briefing from Mogadishu on the situation in Somalia on 11 March 2014. He was followed by a 6 minute presentation by the Somali representative located at the UN headquarters in New York.

Nicholas Kay said what is needed in Somalia is a united, secure and federal country. The security situation in Mogadishu has deteriorated, but there has been progress in Somalia in spite of setbacks and delays. AMISOM has launched a major offensive against al-Shabaab. Kay called on the international community to stay the course in Somalia.

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South Sudan: UN Trusteeship or Joint International Administration? Posted: 20 Mar 2014 09:20 AM PDT The Juba-based Sudd Institute (SI), an independent research organization, published on 11 March 2014 an analysis titled " South Sudan's Crisis: A UN Trusteeship or Joint Administration is Outlandish " by Nhial Tiitmamer, research and training officer at SI, and Abraham Awolich, a founding member of SI.

The analysis takes issue with two recent suggestions. The first comes from Hank Cohen, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, who proposed a UN trusteeship for South Sudan . The second is discussed in a paper produced by the US Institute of Peace, which proposes an interim joint administration involving both South Sudan and the international community . The SI authors argue against both ideas.

Testing the waters Washington presses Ethiopia for political reform

By Kirubel Tadesse Monday, 17 March 2014 08:23 0 Comments

The United States’ State Department annual report this year has toughened its tone in condemning Ethiopia’s record on rights, even Secretary of State John Kerry, grouped the country with Cuba, Belarus and China. This, former diplomats and experts say, is an indication that Washington will be testing the new leadership in Addis Ababa to see if it’s willing to embrace political reforms ahead of 2015 national polls. Successfully staging the country’s first ever peaceful power transfer, the ruling party has consolidated its control. There is however no sign that the government of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn is heeding Washington’s calls for major reforms. A spokesperson for the PM earlier this week said any legislative or political reforms have to be “organic” and initiated by the government’s own assessments. Significant shift Annually compiled by American embassies across the globe, the State Department submits to the US Congress detailed reports of human rights conditions on all United Nations members while those receiving assistance from the US are particularly targeted. Ethiopia, receiving about one USD billion in annual aid from the US, and much more from multi-donor establishments such as the World Bank where Washington holds significant controls, falls among a list of nations which receive stronger scrutiny. Many governments angrily react to the report. China for instance tries to turn the tables on the US, issuing a report of its own condemning alleged failures of the US government to uphold its citizens’ rights. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is often tasked to respond to the report, by including the reaction in its weekly report and even issuing a statement. The latter usually means the government sees a need to send a forceful rebuttal. When America’s top diplomat John Kerry stood before reporters on February 27th to release this year’s report, few anticipated that he would mention Ethiopia. The report in its opening global review included Ethiopia, belittling the government’s actions of enforcing legislations that “rapidly shrink civil societies, close independent newspapers, and arrest, harass and prosecute journalists”. Kerry hailed Eskinder Nega, a blogger the Ethiopian government jailed on terror charges. “Some of the greatest accomplishments in expanding the cause of human rights have come not because of legislative decree or judicial fiat, but they came through the awesomely courageous acts of individuals,” said Kerry. “Whether it is Xu Zhiyong fighting the government transparency that he desires to see in China, or Ales Byal- yatski, who is demanding justice and transparency and accountability in Belarus, whether it is Angel Yunier Remon Arzuaga, who sings (raps) for greater political freedom in Cuba, or Eskinder Nega, who is writing for freedom of expression in Et hiopia. Every single one of these people are demonstrating a brand of moral courage that we need now more than ever,” added the Secretary in his first publicly and strongly voiced criticism of the Ethiopian government. The New York City-based rights group, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) says the remarks are “significant”. “It is significant in so far as Kerry, as the third most powerful official in the government that leads the global war on terrorism, sent a firm message in the clearest way that Eskinder Nega has no connections to terrorism and is in prison for his peaceful exercise of freedom of expression,” says CPJ Africa Advocacy Coordinator Mohamed Keita. Keita says Prime Minister Hailemariam, after spending more than a year in office, isn’t improving the country’s track record when it comes to the free press. “The facts speak for themselves: there are more journalists in prison today than there were when the late Meles Zenawi died, and there are journalists still being prosecuted for articles published when Meles was alive. Authori- ties are still conflating independent journalism and the mildest criticism of their actions with incitement to violence, treason or terrorism,” Keita told Capital. The State Department report says Ethiopia restricts freedom of expression and association. Ethiopian security forces reportedly arrest, detain, harass, intimidate and put people on politically motivated trials to stifle dissidence. The report said its sources are convinced that police investigators often used physical abuse to extract confessions in Maekelawi, the central police investigation headquarters in Addis Ababa. Some prisons are described as “harsh” and “life threatening”. According to the report, opposition politicians and journalists are the main target of the government’s crackdown. Tough Tone While Ethiopia has never lived up to America’s expectations when it comes to human rights protections, the wording of this year’s report is a tough one, says former American Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn. “I think anyone who reads the State Department report will conclude it is a tough one,” said Shinn, the U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia from 1996 to 1999. “Washington has for many years urged the government of Ethiopia to improve its human rights record, open political space, and allow for the functioning of a free press. The question is how hard Washington pushes, how much real leverage it has, what are the foreign and domestic dynamics in Ethiopia that tend to operate against reform, and, most importantly, how willing is the government of Ethiopia to listen,” explains Shinn, now a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Engineer GizachewShiferaw, the leader of the largest opposition, says that he would like the US “to persistently engage” Ethiopia on the reported accounts of the right abuses. Reporting the abuses isn’t enough, insisted Gizachew. Human Rights Watch echoes the call, claiming that Ethiopia’s “atrocious human rights record” is not getting any better unless donors intervene. Felix Horne, an Ethiopia Researcher for the group, says “there is a window of opportunity” for donors ahead of the scheduled May, 2015 national elections. “There is a window of opportunity for donors to push for the opening u p of political space in Ethiopia ahead of the critical 2015 elections. Ethiopia depends on incredible amounts of support from Western donors and that support comes with responsibilities including the opening up political space which includes the removal of restrictions on media and civil society,” said Horne. In an interview with one Amharic weekly, GetachewReda, a spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemari- am Desalegn, downplayed the significance of the latest Department Report. He even labeled the document as the product of people “whose life depends on writing the report”. “The Anti-Terrorist law was not issued with the covert agenda of muzzling the press. It is a law copied almost verbatim from the legislation of many developed countries passed to control the threat of terrorism,” said the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a recent statement which stanchly defended the country’s controversial legislations. “The fear that the press will be targeted under anti-terrorist legislation is misplaced and cannot be supported by any cogent argument,” reads the statement,“While attacks on the supposed government attitude towards the private press in Ethiopia continue, the reality on the ground offers a very different picture. The private press in Ethiopia today is witnessing an unprecedented growth in circulation, a sharp rise in the number of professional journalists and in the financial capabilities and organizational strength of the media.” The best way for Washington to press Ethiopia for reforms isn’ t a public scolding, according to the former US top diplomat in Ethiopia. “The United States and other Western countries should do everything reasonably possible, both publicly and privately, to encourage the opening of political space by engaging in a frank discussion with key members of the government. I doubt that this effort will succeed through threats and public bombast,” said David Shinn. Shinn says the main goal of a US-Ethiopia engagement should be “to see registered political parties given a chance to operate freely”. Despite its latest tough tone that many see as being timed with next year’s national polls, the US seems to be encouraged by the latest political developments in Ethiopia including seeing the return of peaceful demonstra- tions on Addis streets. “Although many problems exist and abuses occur, some recent events are encouraging. On June 2 of this year, for example, several thousand demonstrators calling for the release of political prisoners, an end to interference in religious affairs, action on unemployment and corruption, and an end to illegal evictions marched peacefully through the capital, without government interference. This was the first such political demonstration the Ethiopian government officially permitted since 2005,” said Patricia Haslach, US Ambassador to Ethiopia, in her senate confirmation speech. Stationed in Addis since September, Haslach had vowed that she would “press the Government of Ethiopia to respect the rights of all its citizens regardless of ethnicity, clan, political views, or religious affiliation.” The fate of Washington’s latest drive is to be seen in events leading to the May, 2015 national elections to which the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia says preparations are already underway. Kirubel Tadesse, currently based in the U.S., is an Ethiopian political commentator.

UN, militants warn of terror attacks

By MALKHADIR MUHUMED Special Correspondent Sunday, March 16, 2014

A recent call by the leader of Somalia’s most dangerous militant group Al Shabaab to his fighters to “give good news” to the worldwide Al Qaeda leadership is raising the fear of possible attacks in the Eastern Africa region, where the militants have in recent years carried out deadly assaults against civilian targets.

The UN envoy for Somalia as well as security experts and analysts are also warning that the ongoing offensive in the Horn of Africa nation could strengthen the militants’ determination to seek revenge, or at least to try and ease the military pressure on fellow fighters.

“The risk of further attacks against the Somali government and international targets remains high,” said Nicholas Kay, via videoconferencing in his briefing to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, just weeks after militants raided the seat of Somalia’s government in Mogadishu in a failed bid to capture or kill President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Emmanuel Kisiangani, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, warned the region is not well-protected. “The region is vulnerable,” he said.

Yet it seems both the Somali president and African Union which is carrying out the offensive in the country are not about to relent. Speaking in Mogadishu ahead of a state visit to Japan on Monday, President Mohamud told Somalis that now was “the time to decide your destiny,” and that “there is no going back.”

After defeating the militants, he said, the government will focus on other important national issues, such as reviewing the provincial constitution, implementing federalism across the country and creating an environment in which elections can be held in 2016.

The operation in Somalia, mainly led by Ethiopian forces, who joined the AU force last January, is concentrated in the southern regions, where the militants have lost control of several towns.

The UN has supplied food, fuel and water to the AU operation, saying it is “the most significant and geographically extensive military advance” since the arrival of peacekeepers in 2007.

“We promised that this year, 2014, will be a year of action and now that has started,” said Ali Col. Ali Houmed a spokesman for the AU force.

In recent months, the US and Kenya have also carried out several aerial attacks against militants to disrupt, deter and prevent them from pulling off another attack.

And given its status as the regional hub for the international media, Nairobi is still a tempting target for militants who are desperate for making international headlines, said analysts.

Although the militants’ powers have been depleted over the years and in 2011 were forced to withdraw from Mogadishu, they still control a dozen small but crucial towns and most of the countryside in south-central regions.

But security experts and analysts say the right approach to inoculate Somalia, and by extension the region from Al Shabaab threats is to help Mogadishu strengthen the capabilities of its army and win over the public.

“The new Somali government can’t rely on the African troops for its long-term security needs,” said Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, a Horn of Africa specialist who teaches history and political science at Kenyatta University in Nairobi.

Sudan/South Sudan: Looming Crisis in Abyei Posted: 13 Mar 2014 06:40 PM PDT The !Enough Project published on 13 March 2014 an analysis titled " Looming Crisis: Open Wounds in Abyei Increase Risk of New War " by Maiwen Dot Pheot. The author writes that armed youth and dis- satisfied cadres within the South Sudanese army in the area seem to be interested in provoking a con- frontation, both with the nomadic Misseriya who graze their animals in Abyei and the Sudanese government.

Briefing to the Security Council by Ambassador Nicholas Kay, UN Envoy to Somalia Published on March 12, 2014 Briefing to the Security Council by Ambassador Nicholas Kay, UN Envoy to Somalia MOGADISHU, 11 march 2014 – Madam President, Members of the Council, Thank you for giving me the opportunity to brief the Council from Mogadishu today, and for your continued support to Somalia’s peace-building and state-building. I am on the ground in Mogadishu and not with you in New York due to the intensity of events at this moment. I hope you understand. Madam President, The best hope for peace and stability in Somalia, the Horn of Africa and beyond remains a united, secure and federal Somalia. This is achievable. Somalia can reach its goal of an agreed constitution, a nation-wide electoral process and increased security by 2016. But times are tough, and in the short term may get tougher. Insecurity in Mogadishu poses challenges for Somalis, the UN and the international community. 2014 is a crucial year. It is marked, I would say, by security and political challenges, which will be overcome if the Federal Government of Somalia and international partners remain united and if both accelerate delivery of their mutual commitments. Madam President As I speak, an expanded AMISOM and the Somali National Army (SNA) are prosecuting a renewed offensive against Al Shabaab, made possible by UN Security Council Resolution 2124. It will be the most significant and geographically extensive military advance since AMISOM started, and there have already been notable success- es. I pay tribute to the commitment and sacrifices made by AMISOM and its police and troop contributing states. Under Ambassador Annadif’s leadership, AMISOM continues to be the single most important contributor to the security of Somalia, and a vital partner for the Federal Government and the United Nations in peace-building, state-building and stabilisation. Ethiopian troops were officially incorporated into AMISOM earlier this year. The UN has played its part in preparing for the new operations. Supplies of food, fuel and water were stockpiled by the UN Support Office for AMISOM (UNSOA) in all sectors in advance of the operations. UNSOA and UNSOM have been supporting the training of Somali National Army troops. This includes training in human rights and humanitarian law, in accordance with the Secretary-General’s Human Rights Due Diligence Policy.

As you will be aware, in Mogadishu the security situation has deteriorated since the last time I briefed the Council in December. A suicide attack carried out on a UN convoy, a complex suicide attack against the Presidential compound in Villa Somalia, and another suicide attack near the National Intelligence headquarters, all in the month of February, are sharp reminders. The risk of further attacks against Somali government and international targets remains high. The Federal Government and AMISOM have increased their security operations in the city and the Government has developed a new Mogadishu security strategy. I look forward to its early implementation and I hope international partners will actively support it and respond rapidly to requests from the Government.

The UN has taken measures to improve its own security. Planning for the UN Guard Unit, endorsed in February by the Council to protect UN personnel and facilities in Mogadishu, is underway, with the first deployments expected in April. I take this opportunity to thank the Council and the Government of Uganda for their support in establishing the Guard Unit. I would also like to thank AMISOM for their cooperation in facilitating its deployment.

Madam President

Vital though they are, military operations alone will not achieve sustainable peace-building and state-building. The Government has established a framework for the stabilisation of areas that will become accessible as a result of these operations, including the establishment of interim local administrations. UNSOM has been working closely with partners to support this. As AMISOM and the Somali National Army begin their offensive, we are all conscious of the need to uphold humanitarian principles and respect for international humanitarian law. We also need resources. I urge donors and partners to contribute to the trust fund for the supply of non-lethal support to the Somali National Army in line with resolution 2124. Such UN support for a national army is groundbreaking, and requires our collective effort and determination to succeed.

Developing strong, professional Somali security forces is essential. Progress is being made, but it is made harder by the continuing insecurity and conflict. UNSOM’s work on security sector reform continues. We are, for example, taking some practical steps such as supporting biometric registration and the provision of uniforms. We plan to support the Somali Police Force’s recruitment of 2,300 additional police officers in 2014. Somalia’s security institutions need urgently to be properly funded. I hope that international partners will work with UNSOM, AMISOM and the Federal Government to work out how to do this in a timely and effective manner.

I am pleased also to report that in February the European Union training mission began its training programmes inside Somalia. This is a significant step that deserves our recognition.

Madam President, Achieving greater security is a vital task for 2014. But the political dimension of state-building and peace-building is equally vital this year. After nearly three months of negotiation, Somalia now has a new Federal Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed. The Cabinet contains experienced and techno- cratic Ministers whose workplans are built around the priorities identified in the New Deal Compact. On 24 Febru- ary, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and I co-chaired, in Mogadishu, the first meeting of the High-Level Part- nership Forum, the body overseeing the implementation of the Compact. The Forum concluded that now was the time for both the Government and international partners to convert plans into actions, pledges into tangible projects and to make real political progress. I am pleased to report that as we meet, the Federal Government is final- ising a detailed plan and timetable for a process leading to the formation of Federal States, a final Constitution and democratisation by 2016. I expect this timetable, called broadly Vision 2016, will have concrete and realistic deliverables, to be published in the coming weeks following further consultation with stakeholders, including Punt- land and the Interim Jubba Administration. The UN stands ready to play a central role in supporting its implementation. Strengthened public financial management is another pillar of state-building. Following the resignation of the former Central Bank Governor in November 2013, the Government has made progress towards rebuilding national and international confidence in its financial institutions. A key step has been the establishment of a Financial Governance Committee, involving experts from the government and international financial institutions to advise on financial management. Alongside other key measures, the Federal Government has agreed to share the existing strategic concession contracts with the Committee for technical review and expert advice. Improved transparency and accountability are critical steps in initiating aid flows. The World Bank, I should note, has been intrepid in supporting on the ground the progress we are beginning to see.

Madam President, The formation of Federal States needs to be accelerated. I said the same in my briefing to you in December. It is even more true today. In Baidoa, in south west Somalia, the gulf between two rival camps, advocating a six- and three-region state respectively, remains wide. On the 3rd of March, I called on all parties to respect the Constitution and existing agreements of the Federal Government and to resolve disputes through inclusive dialogue. I continue to offer UNSOM’s good offices to support a Federal Government-led process. The Government has clearly stated its commitment to a three region state, a position that should be respected. In Southern Somalia, the formation of the Interim Jubba Administration continued with the announcement of min- isterial positions on the 20th of February. There have been positive steps towards reconciliation and inclusivity. But the full implementation of the 28 August Addis Ababa Agreement requires continued engagement and compromise. I salute the efforts of Ethiopia as Chair of the Council of Ministers of IGAD and guarantor of the Addis Ababa agreement. UNSOM is working with the Federal Government, the Interim Jubba Administration and partners to mobilise resources to manage an increased caseload of disengaged combatants in Kismayo and to take forward reconciliation initiatives. To the north, in Puntland, on 8th of January I witnessed, along with several members of the international community, the election of President Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas and the peaceful handover by former President Abdu- rahman Mohamed Farole. UNSOM supported critical mediation efforts in the run-up to the elections and advocat- ed, among other things, for greater women’s political participation. I am encouraged by the new Government’s commitment to resumption of Puntland’s suspended democratisation process and the restoration of relations with the Federal Government of Somalia. President Gaas has highlighted the difficult budget situation and the short- age of funds to pay salaries of Puntland government officials, including security forces. I hope that donor efforts to find an interim solution will bear fruit.

I am also inspired by the vigour and enthusiasm of Somali women’s political advocacy. Twenty-three women’s organisations from South-Central Somalia and Puntland have established the Somali Women Leadership Initia- tive to campaign for increased political participation of women. UNSOM remains firmly committed to enhancing women’s participation in national decision-making. Encouragingly in Puntland, President Abdiweli Gaas appointed five women to cabinet, more than any of his predecessors.

Madam President, Promotion and respect for human rights is at the core of UNSOM’s support to the Federal Government. We have been working with both AMISOM and the Somali National Army to provide training on human rights, international humanitarian law and refugee law. A Joint Working Group on human rights due diligence, which includes AMISOM, UNSOA and UNSOM has been established. I hope that in the near future it will also include the Federal Government. The consultative process to create a National Human Rights Commission is still delayed against a background of sustained attacks against human rights defenders and journalists and the continued application of the death penalty. I am also deeply concerned about the ongoing incidence of sexual violence in Somalia. I look forward to the implementation of the recommendations of the Team of Experts on Sexual Violence established under Council Resolution 1888 (2009). The Team of Experts visited Somalia in December 2013.

Madam President, Despite significant humanitarian crises around the world and within the region, I believe Somalia must remain a priority. The country’s humanitarian crisis is among the largest and most complex in the world. An estimated 2.9 million people will need immediate life-saving and livelihood support in the next six months. Recent improvements in the humanitarian situation are fragile and risk reversal if the current trend of low and slow funding for the 2014 humanitarian appeal continues.

There have been reports recently also of displacement as a result of the fighting, especially in Bay and Bakol. As of the 9th of March some 3,700 newly displaced people arrived in Baidoa, mainly due to fear of attacks. As of today they have all started receiving shelter and household items. We also had reports of some 700 previously displaced families that have returned to Hudur after it was recaptured by Somali National Army and AMISOM forces. Humanitarian access due to the volatile security situation remains a major challenge. Humanitarian partners are working to determine urgent needs and how to best respond. On the 10th of December last year a tripartite agreement was signed between the governments of Kenya, Soma- lia and UNHCR for the voluntary repatriation of Somali refugees in Kenya. But conditions in Somalia are not yet conducive for wide-scale refugee return. Without sufficient preparation, mass returns could in fact cause instability and worsen the humanitarian situation in the country.

As a result of changes in its legislation, in December 2013, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia began deporting Somali nationals as well as other migrant workers. It is estimated that more than 22,000 have returned to Somalia so far. The International Organisation for Migration expects as many as an additional 33,000 people could be deported in the next three months. Such an influx to Mogadishu could exacerbate the plight of the internally displaced in the capital.

Madam President, Progress in Somalia has been mixed so far, but it is progress. We still have a long way to go. The targets which the Federal Government has set itself, in partnership with the international community, remain relevant and feasi- ble. National reconciliation, federalism, the conclusion of the constitutional process and the rebuilding of security institutions are critical. Despite setbacks and delays, none of these tasks remain out of our collective reach. But time is of the essence. The time for action is now.

Madam President, To conclude, Somalia and Somalis desperately need improved security. I firmly believe this can be achieved, but it requires a collective effort. Secondly, national reconciliation must be fast-tracked. The establishment of Federal States is critical to the creation of a cohesive and effective federal structure in Somalia. Reconciliation efforts must continue, and will be an additional tool in the fight against the enemies of peace. Legislation to set the constitutional and electoral processes in motion must be must enacted. Finally, I urge the international community to continue to provide the support necessary to build the Federal Gov- ernment’s capacity to undertake the significant work that remains. Somalis need to see and feel the benefit of increasing peace and security. We need to convert good plans into more concrete assistance, or as a Somali proverb says “A sweet hand is better than a sweet mouth”. The Federal Government is frustrated with the slow delivery of tangible assistance. A country broken from decades of conflict has huge needs. Not all can or will be met quickly, especially while conflict continues. But I wonder if together we could not achieve some faster success in rebuilding Somalia’s shattered state.

As friends and partners of Somalia, we need to stay the course. Now is not the time to prevaricate. We have to be prepared for setbacks, but remain resolute. After nearly a quarter of a century of wars, state collapse and im- mense human suffering, Somalis are determined to build a lasting peace. They need and deserve our continued support. I thank you very much.

UN agency urges international action after latest migrant tragedy in Gulf of Aden Published on March 12, 2014 by Maalik Eng · With 44 people missing and feared drowned after a smugglers’ boat capsized off the coast of southern Yemen, the UN refugee agency today urged the donor community and civil society to develop comprehensive responses to reduce and ultimately prevent these hazardous journeys. Spokesman Adrian Edwards said the Office for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees ( UNHCR ) is “deeply saddened” by the boat accident in the Gulf of Aden over the weekend involving refugees and migrants. The boat was reportedly carrying 77 men, women and children from Somalia (31) and Ethiopia (46). “Thirty-three people were rescued, but the remaining 44 are still missing and feared drowned,” Mr. Edwards told reporters in Geneva, describing this as the worst such incident this year. According to UNHCR, the boat had departed from Bossasso in the north coast of Somalia on Friday 7 March. “It ran into strong winds and high waves off the coast of the southern Yemeni governorate of Shabwa,” said Mr. Edwards, adding that according to one of the survivors, the boat quickly filled with water and capsized. On Sunday morning, a marine patrol by UNHCR partner organization Society for Humanitarian Solidarity (SHS) found 33 survivors. With one exception, all the survivors were male. They were brought ashore at Majdaha by SHS staff and given first aid, food, water and clothing before being taken to a transit centre. “One 45-year old man from Southern Somalia said he had lost his two children in the tragedy, unable to reach them in the dark,” said Mr. Edwards. “The sole surviving woman lost her teenage daughter. She said the smugglers had refused to stop the boat when it began taking on water,” he added. The tragedy is the most significant involving refugees and migrants crossing the sea to Yemen in the past year. Though the number of people making the perilous journey has been declining –from 107,532 arrivals in 2012 to 65,319 in 2013 – the crossings continue, resulting in hundreds of undocumented casualties in recent years. “Nonetheless, the crossings continue and lives are being lost. And this calls for all stakeholders – governments, international and regional organizations, the donor community and civil society – to develop comprehensive responses to reduce and ultimately prevent these hazardous journeys,” Mr. Edwards stressed. Over the past five years, more than half-a-million people – mainly Somalis, Ethiopians and Eritreans – have crossed the waters of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea to reach Yemen in overcrowded boats. In addition to countless reports of mistreatment, abuse, rape and torture by unscrupulous trafficking rings, smugglers are also often reported to throw passengers overboard in order to prevent capsizing or avoid detection. UNHCR has worked to enhance services offered to new arrivals in collaboration with the Mixed Migration Task Force and other partners, including the Government of Yemen, international and national non-governmental organizations and host communities.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014 The best hope for peace and stability in Somalia, the Horn of Africa and beyond remains a united, secure and federal Somalia, the top United Nations official in the country told the Security Council today, warning that after a series of attacks against high-profile targets in Mogadishu, insecurity in the capital city poses challenges for So- malis and their international partners.

“2014 is a crucial year… marked by security and political challenges, which will be overcome if the Federal Gov- ernment of Somalia and international partners remain united and if both accelerate delivery of their mutual commitments,” Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Nicholas Kay, told the 15-member Council via video conference from Mogadishu, urging continued support from donors and other stockholders.

“Progress in Somalia has been mixed so far, but it is progress,” he added. “National reconciliation, federalism, the conclusion of the constitutional process and the rebuilding of security institutions are critical.”

Security remains a vital concern, particularly in Mogadishu where the situation has deteriorated as insurgents carried out often complex suicide attacks against several targets, including a UN convoy, the Presidential compound and the National Intelligence headquarters, “all in the month of February.”

“The risk of further attacks against Somali Government and international targets remains high,” warned Mr. Kay, who is also the head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM).

He added that the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the Somali National Army (SNA) are pursuing a renewed offensive against Al Shabaab insurgents, who in 2011 were forced to retreat from the capital.

This new offensive “will be the most significant and geographically extensive military advance” since AMISOM was created in 2007, Mr. Kay said, highlighting the UN’s role through its support office for AMISOM (UNSOA) in stockpiling food, fuel and water ahead of the operations.

UNSOA, along with UNSOM, has also supported training the army in human rights, international humanitarian and refugee law, in accordance with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Human Rights Due Diligence Policy. Despite the obvious importance of greater security, “the political dimension of state-building and peace-building is equally vital this year,” the Special Representative underscored.

After decades of factional fighting, new Somali Government institutions emerged last year, as the country ended a transitional phase toward setting up a permanent, democratically-elected Government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

“As we meet, the Federal Government is finalizing a detailed plan and timetable for a process leading to the formation of Federal States, a final Constitution and democratisation by 2016,” Mr. Kay told the Council.

This formation of Federal States “needs to be accelerated”, he said, noting the positive steps towards political cooperation in Jubaland and in Puntland.

Among other issues raised in his briefing, Mr. Kay noted that a change in immigration policy in Saudi Arabia forced back more than 22,000 Somalis with an additional 33,000 people expected to return in the next three months. The influx into Mogadishu “could exacerbate the plight of the internally displaced” in the country, which, at 1 million people, are part of the largest and most complex humanitarian crisis in the world.

Source: UN News Centre

Troubled Waters Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads over a plan to dam the Nile River.

• BY KEITH JOHNSON

• MARCH 6, 2014

Egypt's musical-chairs government faces enough challenges . So why is a construction project almost 1,800 miles from Cairo provoking fears over Egypt's national survival?

Egypt and Ethiopia are butting heads over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a $4 billion hydroelectric project that Ethiopia is building on the headwaters of the Blue Nile, near the border between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Cairo worries that the megaproject, which began construction in 2011 and is scheduled to be finished by 2017, could choke the downstream flow of the Nile River right at a time when it expects its needs for fresh water to increase. Brandishing a pair of colonial-era treaties, Egypt argues that the Nile's waters largely belong to it and that it has veto power over dams and other upstream projects. Ethiopia, for its part, sees a chance to finally take advantage of the world's longest river, and says that the 6,000 megawatts of electricity the dam will produce will be a key spur to maintaining Africa's highest economic growth rate and for growth in energy-starved neighbors. The hydroelectric plant will provide triple the amount of electricity generating capacity in all of Ethiopia today. But the spat threatens to poison relations between two of Africa's biggest countries.

"The construction of [the dam] could propel a new era of regional cooperation, but past history suggests it will more likely result in continued sniping between Egypt and Ethiopia," David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to

Ethiopia, told Foreign Policy.

The dispute has heated up again, after a fresh effort to iron out the differences at the negotiating table collapsed.

Egypt has sought to get the United Nations to intervene , and reportedly asked Ethiopia to halt construction on the dam until the two sides can work out an agreement, which Ethiopian officials rebuffed.

"The upper riparian states have the right to use the Nile for their development as far as it doesn't cause any significant harm on the lower riparian countries, and that is why Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance

Dam," Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dina Mufti told reporters in late February.

A former Egyptian irrigation minister said March 5th that Egypt is doing too little to forestall the dam, and highlighted the risks to the country's water supply. Italy's ambassador to Egypt has reportedly offered Italian help in mediating the showdown; an Italian firm is constructing the dam.

The dam has been a glimmer in Ethiopia's eye since U.S. scientists surveyed the site in the 1950s. A lack of cash and Egypt's strength forestalled any development -- but that appears to have changed in the wake of the Arab

Spring and Egypt's three years of domestic political upheaval.

For most of the twentieth century, Egypt and Sudan divvied up the Nile's water between them. A 1929 treaty with

British African colonial possessions gave Egypt the right to more than half the river's flow; a 1959 treaty upped

Egypt's share to about 66%. The rest was allocated to Sudan -- while Ethiopia, whose highlands are the fount of most of the Nile's waters, was excluded from discussions.

"It is only Egypt and the Republic of Sudan that consider the 1929 and 1959 agreements as legally binding on all the Nile River riparian states," John Mbaku of the Brookings Institute Africa Growth Initiative, told FP.

"The Ethiopians may have undertaken what appears to be unilateral action because of Cairo's unwillingness to join other riparian states in renegotiating" those accords, he said. Ethiopia began pushing back seriously after concluding its own water rights deal with other upstream nations, such as Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, in 2010. The protests in Egypt, the collapse of the Mubarak regime, and

Egypt's three years of domestic turmoil provided a key opening for Ethiopia. It laid the first stone on the construction project in the spring of 2011 and says the dam is now about one-third complete.

"With all of the chaos in Egypt, Ethiopia caught a break. It has clearly benefited from the distractions of the government in Cairo," Shinn said. In 2012, Sudan threw its weight behind the project, driving a wedge between the two downstream users of the river and complicating Cairo's hopes to block construction.

The dispute over the Blue Nile dam is hardly the only case of water-driven tensions. Chinese control over the headwaters of major rivers in Asia, and ambitious plans for hydroelectric development, has sparked concern among a dozen downstream neighboring countries. Brazil and Paraguay locked horns for years over the massive

Itaipu dam. Even Western U.S. states are squabbling over water rights to the dwindling Colorado River, especially important now that the region suffers a prolonged drought.

But Egypt sees the Ethiopian project as an existential threat. A government study concluded, "Water security is the gravest threat facing post-revolution Egypt." Former Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi vowed last summer that Egypt would not lose "one drop" of Nile water to the Ethiopian dam, proclaiming, "Our blood is the alternative." Egyptian politicians were caught on camera last June urging Morsi to back armed rebels to sabotage the dam's construction. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt's putative next president, warned Ethiopia last summer the country might resort to military action to stop the dam, and earlier this month he discussed the dam's threats in a visit with

Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Egypt's fears stem from the dam's possible impacts on the Nile as it flows downstream through Sudan and even- tually to the Mediterranean. The Nile provides both water for Egyptian agriculture, and also electricity through

Egypt's own Aswan dam.

The big problem: There has been no public discussion of the downstream impacts of the Ethiopian project. An international panel of experts, including representatives from Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, presented a report last summer to the three governments, but it has not been made public.

Leaks of the report suggested that Egyptian power generation could indeed suffer -- but the lack of clarity mud- dies the issue even for water experts, because it is unclear just how quickly Ethiopia might move to fill the dam's reservoir after construction is finished. Filling it sooner would definitely choke water flows downstream, but would enable power generation more quickly; filling it gradually would push back the potential benefits of the dam for decades. Ethiopia has spoken publicly of filling the dam's reservoir in five or six years.

"There's a suggestion (in the panel report) that the electricity generation at the Aswan Dam could be affected quite significantly," Michael Hammond, a water engineer at the University of Exeter, told FP.

"However, it's inherently uncertain because we don't know whether we'll have ten wet years or ten dry years during the filling process," he said.

Jennifer Veilleux, a PhD candidate at Orgeon State University who has done extensive field work on the impacts of the Blue Nile dam, notes that Egyptian fretting about the dam's impact on agriculture tend to focus on poor farmers. But Egypt has used the abundant Nile waters to become a major exporter of water-thirsty crops, such as cotton, which in turn has given Egypt the highest level of economic development among all Nile Basin countries.

"Why does Egypt have the right to use the Nile for economic development, yet the Ethiopians don't?" she asks.

AFP - Getty

UN Agreement with Somalia Posted: 05 Mar 2014 05:52 PM PST The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) signed a detailed legal agreement on 26 February 2014 with the government of Somalia. It lays down the ground rules under which UNSOM can operate in Somalia. ******************************************************************************************* : No power-sharing without political reform

Posted: 03 Mar 2014 01:10 PM PST The Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA) reprinted a two-part analysis from Uganda's New Vision titled " South Sudan: No Power-sharing without Political Reform " by Mahmood Mamdani, director of the Makerere Institute of Social Research.

Treading a new path A major Chinese shoe manufacturer is lacing up for the long run in this economic powerhouse. Will others follow? by Elissa Jobson Mar 01, 2014 Elissa Jobson is a freelance journalist based in Ethiopia. She is the Addis Ababa correspondent for The Africa Report and Business Day and also writes for The Guardian . Prior to this she was editor of Global: The Interna- tional Briefing . She holds a BA and master’s degree from Cambridge University in the UK.

Sole Providers

At 6.45am the first bus halts outside the main gates of the Eastern Industry Zone. The doors clang open. Bleary- eyed young men and women begin to emerge and brace against the chill morning air. A second, then a third and fourth bus arrives from the nearby dormitories, disgorging more and more workers dressed in the turquoise polo shirts that employees are required to wear on the shop floor at Huajian, one of China’s largest footwear manufacturers.

Each member of staff pauses briefly at the factory door and presses an identity tag against the electronic sensor that records their clocking-in time. Minutes later small groups of employees begin to assemble inside and outside the main buildings. Lines are formed, calisthenic drills executed and chants recited before workers march briskly to their stations and begin their duties.

These scenes, played out in thousands of factories across China each day, seem more than a little incongruous here in Dukem, about 40km south of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital. But they could become an increasingly familiar sight if, as the Ethiopian government hopes, Chinese companies move more light manufacturing operations to this booming east African country.

“With the fast growth of its economy, Ethiopia will become a promising land full of trade and investment opportunities,” wrote Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn at the first Africa-China Commodities, Technology and Service Expo, held in Addis Ababa in December 2013. “More Chinese enterprises will be attracted to Ethiopia with technology and investment, which will achieve win-win cooperation.”

Chinese manufacturers, facing rising costs at home, are well aware of Ethiopia’s advantages: cheap labour and land leases; low-cost and reliable electricity in Addis Ababa, where most manufacturing is sited (with more to come soon as a series of hydro-electric dams turns the country into an exporter of electricity); easy access to cotton, leather, and other agricultural products; and proximity to key markets in Europe and America.

This explains why Addis Ababa was chosen as the location for this fair, the first of its kind to be held on the continent to showcase Chinese companies and generate business. “We selected Ethiopia as the destination of this expo because we think Ethiopia is a place many Chinese industries would like to relocate to,” said Gao Hucheng,

China’s minister of commerce. Huajian, which produces shoes for Guess, Tommy Hilfiger, Naturalizer, and other Western brands at its Dukem factory, is keen to take full advantage of the opportunities Ethiopia affords. “We are not coming all the way here just to reduce by 10%-20% our costs,” insists Helen Hai, former vice-president of Huajian Group, who is now advising the Ethiopian government on how to attract Chinese investors. “Huajian’s aim here is in ten years’ time to have a new cluster of shoemaking. We want to build a whole supply chain,” she adds.

The company’s vision is bold. Huajian began producing shoes in Ethiopia in January 2012 and the company now employs 2,500 people in the country, 90% of whom are local. Huajian currently exports more than $1m worth of shoes from Ethiopia to Europe and the US each month. But within a decade, Huajian hopes Ethiopia will become a global footwear industry hub, providing jobs to more than 100,000 local workers, 30,000 of whom will be directly employed by Huajian.

Together with the China-Africa Development Fund, a private-equity facility, Huajian has committed to invest $2 billion over the next ten years to create a “shoe city” that will provide accommodation for as many as 200,000 people, as well as factory space for other footwear, handbags, accessories and components producers.

Ms Hai is convinced Ethiopia will become “the future manufacturing floor of the world”. She believes it should follow China’s path and begin with labour-intensive industries such as footwear and garment production. “The labour cost in shoemaking in China is about 22% of the overall cost portfolio,” she explains. “In China today the cost of each labourer is $500 [a month]. In Ethiopia it is only $50. So the question comes down to the efficiency.”

If one Ethiopian worker can produce the same number of shoes as one Chinese worker then labour costs could be reduced from 22% to 2.7% of the new total cost.

People argue that African efficiency is low, Ms Hai says, but she maintains that with one year’s training Ethiopian workers could achieve “70% of the efficiency” of workers in China.

The profit motive for relocation to Ethiopia is clear. But other factors—excise breaks, tax holidays and cheap land rental offered to investors in certain preferred sectors—make Ethiopia attractive too, Ms Hai claims. For example,

Ethiopia is eligible for schemes like the US’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the EU’s Every- thing but Arms (EBA) treaty, which allows exporters from many African countries duty- and quota- free access to

America and Europe.

What is in it for Ethiopia? While the Chinese are taking advantage of Ethiopia’s cheap labour, “they bring technology, know-how and training”, Ms Hai says. “This will help the country create jobs and bring exports. That is truly the root of industrialisation.” Grand plans like Huajian’s, however, are few and far between. Annual levels of Chinese investment in Ethiopia are low, totalling about $200m in 2013, according to the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Addis Ababa. This marks a substantial increase from virtually nothing in 2004 and $58.5m in 2010. But just $50m of the current investments are in manufacturing, mainly in small and medium enterprises producing steel, cement, glass, PVC, paper, furniture, mat- tresses, blankets, shoes and other products. Instead, Chinese economic activity in Ethiopia tends to be focused on major infrastructure programmes—roads, railways, telecommunications and electricity transmission—which the Ethiopian government pays for with financial backing from Chinese institutions.

“This is substantial activity, at least in terms of the value of these projects,” explains Jan Mikkelsen, IMF resident representative in Ethiopia. Last December’s China- Africa Expo reflected this pattern with few of the more than

130 Chinese companies exhibiting looking to open factories in Ethiopia or elsewhere on the continent. In- stead, many, like China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), with their large, prominent stand, were hoping to secure lucrative government contracts.

“Ethiopia is a very big potential market,” says Jin Chunsheng, CMEC vice president. “There is the five year

[Growth and] Transformation Plan and we expect to see a lot of power and infrastructure business which is related to the work of our company.” CMEC is currently negotiating to build fertiliser plants with Metals and En- gineering Corporation, a major state-owned Ethiopian enterprise, Mr Jin adds.

Although manufacturing in Ethiopia is beginning to rise, it accounted for only 12% of GDP in 2012-13, compared to 43% for agriculture and 45% for services, according to government figures. The sector’s annual growth, however, was 18.5%, as opposed to 7.1% and 9.9% respectively for agriculture and services.

Yangfan Motors, a subsidiary of Chinese automobile manufacturer Lifan, was one of a small number of exhibitors currently operating in Ethiopia. The company opened a car assembly plant in Addis Ababa in 2009. “We chose

Ethiopia because it is secure and stable,” says Liu Jiang, Yangfan’s general manager. “Furthermore the two governments [Ethiopia’s and China’s] have a good relationship and we think that this is a very important point too.”

Unlike many Western countries, China has a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs, which has been appealing to African countries. Ethiopia’s adherence to China’s developmental state model shows that the two countries share a strong affinity.

Not surprisingly, business has been difficult for Yangfan. More than 83% of Ethiopia’s population live off subsist- ence farming in rural areas, according to the World Bank, and 90% of all car sales are used models. The company currently manufactures around 3,000 vehicles annually but only manages to sell one-third to the local market.

Lifan had hoped to use its Ethiopian base as a regional hub, but so far has been unable to distribute abroad because Ethiopia is a landlocked country with high taxes and transport costs, Mr Liu says. “To transport one container from China to Ethiopia is almost triple the cost of sending a container from China to Brazil,” Mr Liu adds.

A container from Shanghai, China, travels 12,400km to the port of Djibouti, at a cost of about $4,000, and is then transported overland 865km to Addis Ababa, for another $4,000, Ms Hai says.

A 2012 World Bank study on Chinese foreign direct investment showed that investors cited customs and trade regulations and tax administration as major constraints on their business. An under-developed financial sector and a dysfunctional foreign exchange market are other business impediments, Mr Mikkelsen says. In the bank’s

2014 “Doing Business” report, Ethiopia slipped down one place to 125th and dropped from 162nd to 166th in terms of ease of starting a business.

Companies seeking short-term profits may not take the risk or feel that the inconveniences are worth staying the distance, says Lars Moller, lead economist at the World Bank’s Addis Ababa office.

Yangfan, however, is committed to the long haul, Mr Liu says. Later this year, the company will move to a bigger factory in the same industrial complex as Huajian. Government environmental policies will begin to favour newer, less-polluting vehicles and the ongoing road and railway construction will significantly reduce transportation costs, he adds. “In 2014 we are planning to bring two new models, one of which is especially designed for the Ethiopian market.”

Ethiopia clearly has a long way to go on its path to an industrial economy that offers jobs to its people and sensi- ble opportunities to foreign and regional investors. Much shoe leather will be worn out before that destination is reached. Ventures such as Huajian’s and Yangfan’s offer tentative hope.

Djibouti wants to reinforce military cooperation with China

China has become an important economic partner for Djibouti by funding major projects, including the construction of three ports and a railway between Djibouti and Ethiopia.

Friday, February 28, 2014

Djibouti's Defense Minister Hassan Darar Houffaneh has appealed for more military cooperation between his country and China to reinforce the operational capacity of the Djibouti Armed Forces and contribute to the consol- idation of peace and security in the sub-region.

Houffaneh was speaking during a visit of China's Defense Minister Chang Wanquan who was visiting Djibouti between Monday and Tuesday.

The minister thanked China for continuously supporting Djibouti, especially during very difficult times.

"It's particularly true that in the sub-region, and especially in Djibouti, most infrastructure projects are being funded by China," he said, adding that the projects will reinforce regional integration.

Chinese defense minister said the two countries had began discussions on reinforcement of military cooperation.

"The People's Republic of China is ready to support Djibouti to reinforce its military capacities and guarantee its security," Chang said.

Houffaneh insisted on a particularly unstable security context in the sub-region which is characterized by piracy, terrorism and illegal immigration.

The minister emphasized his country's commitment on the Somali pacification missions where it has a contingent of 1,000 troops participating in the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) to eradicate Al-Shabaab terror- ists.

In 2014, Djibouti intends to deploy additional 1,000 soldiers to Somalia.

He said Djibouti was ready to allow Chinese military ships to access its ports and urged his Chinese counterpart to concretize the military cooperation between the two countries.

Experts raise alarm over lack of advancement of written Somali language

A Somali girl writes in her exercise book during class at a school run by the Hawa Abdi Centre in the Afgoye cor- ridor on September 25, 2013. [AFP PHOTO / AU UN IST PHOTO / Tobin Jones]

By Abdi Moalim Thursday, February 27, 2014

Somali language experts are calling on educational institutions and the government to help expand the use of the written language, as many schools in the country do not use an official language curriculum. The current Somali alphabet is based on a Latin script adapted by Shire Jama Ahmed. It was chosen among 18 competing scripts as Somalia's official script in 1972.

Immediately after its adoption, the government of Mohamed Siad Barre began an aggressive literacy campaign to teach citizens the new alphabet and promote its widespread use.

But more than 40 years later, language and education experts say the Somali language has suffered considerable setbacks in its written form due to the collapse of the government, subsequent decades of war and the downfall of institutions of higher education using Somali for instruction.

There is no fear that the spoken language will become extinct since the number of Somali speakers is increasing throughout East Africa, said Professor Mustafa Abdullahi Feynus, a researcher and member of the Intergovern- mental Academy of Somali Language (AGA) who teaches media and journalism studies at Mogadishu University.

The challenge, he said, is in the proliferation of the written language because it is has not been the official language of school instruction since the civil war, and because there has not been sufficient development of books to teach students fundamentals such as grammar and spelling since then.

"No one is producing the educational tools of the Somali language. Therefore, the number of children learning [how to properly write] Somali will be very small," he told Sabahi. "The books should have been developed because academic books are renewed once every five years in the rest of the world."

In addition, he said, schools in Somalia do not have an advanced language curriculum.

After the collapse of Somalia's central government in 1991, thousands of private schools emerged to fill the gap left by the decimated state-owned schools, however a lack of oversight and a standard curriculum has resulted in disparities in the quality of education.

A national Somali language curriculum and more academic institutions that conduct research and build on the work done in the 1970s and 1980s to develop Somali language standards -- such as updating Somali dictionaries with the correct use and spelling of technical and science vocabulary -- are needed to expand and solidify the standard use of the written language, Feynus said.

He said the Regional Somali Language Academy, which was opened in Djibouti last June, is one organisation that is doing such work.

Developing the Somali language

Pen International's Somali Centre, which promotes reading and writing in Somali and organises literary programmes, held an event at Mogadishu's Amira Hotel on February 20th, one day before International Mother Lan- guage Day, to raise awareness and celebrate the history of the Somali language and script.

The event hosted linguistic scholars and other people who are interested expanding the use of written Somali.

Somali Pen Chairman Abdinasir Moalim Yusuf told Sabahi they are making great efforts to strengthen the Somali language.

"Somali Pen used the event of the International Mother Language Day for intellectual discussions, a book show and trainings for creative people such as journalists, poets, writers and artists while rewarding the individuals and organisations that take part in spreading the language," he said. Ahmed Mohamed Dhiisow, a Somali writer and editor of Mogadishu-based Hamar newspaper who attended the event, said young journalists grossly violate the rules of writing, making the language hard to understand.

"They do not get trainings on the rules of writing. Also, some websites do not have editors and the person who writes the story is the one who uploads it onto the site," Dhiisow told Sabahi. "It happens that Somali journalists take trainings in other languages that they are interested in, but each person uses the Somali language as he pleases."

Amin Yusuf Khasare, a veteran journalist, writer and editor of the website SomaliTalk, had the same criticism and said the country was dealing with a lack of literate people.

"The many newspapers that used to get published have been displaced by [radio stations], which transmit news on the airwaves as they please without looking at the rules [of the language] and grammar," he told Sabahi.

"The airwaves of Mogadishu have about 30 radio stations compared to only three newspapers that get published," he said. "This has lowered writing and reading skills."

For his part, Yusuf said Pen International's Somali Centre is working to engage all Somalis in restoring the proper use of the written language.

"We want everyone to do their part in advancing the Somali language," he told Sabahi. "Our goal is to provide training to all people who are activists on matters related to language. We are also planning competitions related on how to improve the language.

Somali government and UN sign co-operative pact

Hiiraan Online By Shafi’i Mohyaddin Thursday, February 27, 2014

The federal government of Somalia on Wednesday signed a cooperative deal to strengthen bilateral ties between the United Nations and the federal government of Somalia.

Somali President Hassan Sheik Mohamud attended the signing of the agreement which was signed for Somalia by the Foreign Minister Abdirahman Duale Beyle, while UN Special Representative for Somalia, Nicholas Kay, signed on the behalf of the United Nations.

“I would like to thank members of the committees from the UN and the Somali government—this agreement will help consolidate the cooperation between Somalia and the United Nations and we are very proud of it,” President Hassan Sheik Mahmoud told the media after the agreement was signed in a ceremony at the Presidential Palace on Wednesday. The Somali President also noted that the federal government of Somalia was fully committed to implementing the pact which he termed as a ’base’ for a greater UN-Somalia cooperation.

The Foreign Minister Abdurahman Duale Beyle said that lawyers from both sides have worked on this agreement which clearly maps out the roles and responsibilities adding that both parties are satisfied with this agreement.

Email:[email protected]

U.S. Policy toward Sudan and South Sudan Posted: 26 Feb 2014 05:14 PM PST The House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations held a hearing on 26 February 2014 titled "U.S. Policy toward Sudan and South Sudan." The hearing, chaired by Chair- man Smith, examined the need for a more unified, wider- ranging and proactive policy that can advance long-term U.S. goals in Sudan and South Sudan.

The full text of the opening statements of each witness is available by clicking the name of the witness. The wit- nesses included Donald Booth , special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, U.S. Department of State; John Pren- dergast , co-founder, Enough Project; Walid Phares , co-secretary general, Transatlantic Group on Counter Terror- ism; and Adotei Akwei , managing director for government relations, Amnesty International US.

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EU Mission Begins Training Activities In Mogadishu

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

The European Union's military training mission for Somalia (EUTM Somalia) has started its first course of "Train the Trainers" at the Jazeera Training Camp in Mogadishu, the European bloc said in a statement Tuesday.

The mission began its training activities on Monday, a day after EUTM Somalia's new Mission Commander, Brig- adier General Massimo Mingiardi, was joined for an official ceremony by Somalia's Deputy Minister for Defence, Abdallah Hussein Ali. This is the first training carried out in Mogadishu by EUTM Somalia since its redeployment from Uganda in December 2013. "This event is a milestone in the history of EUTM Somalia. Having since 2010 contributed to the training of ap- proximately 3,600 Somali soldiers in Uganda, we are now working fully on Somali soil, hand in hand with the Somali army," EU foreign policy chief was quoted as saying in the press release.

"Through training, mentoring and advising, the armies of EU Member States are bringing a significant contribution to the country's and the international community's efforts towards security in the long term and a better future for all Somalis," she added. The training will be conducted by 16 trainers - 8 from Italy, 6 from Sweden, and 2 from Hungary. The trainees will include 60 military personnel of the Somali National Army who had been previously trained by EUTM in Uganda.

The refresher course will last four weeks and will train the trainers on infantry techniques and procedures, also including elements of International Humanitarian Law and Military Ethics.

"At the end of the Course, the Somali personnel will be qualified as instructor and will train Somali National Army recmentoring of the EUTM Somalia personnel. This train-the trainer approach and the following mentoring continues to assist the Somali authorities in developing sustainable local capacities," the press release said. In 2014, EUTM Somalia plans to train and mentor in Mogadishu a total of 1,850 personnel of the Somali national defense forces. This support continues to take place within the framework of the EU's comprehensive engagement in Somalia, with a view to respond to the priority needs of the Somali people and its government as well as stabiliz- ing Somalia.

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U.S. State Deptartment reports steep decline in Somali piracy operations

Sept. 23, 2012 photo shows a masked Somali pirate walking past a Taiwanese fishing vessel that washed up on shore after the pirates were paid a ransom and released the crew. /AP

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

WASHINGTON — Somali-based piracy has continued its decline. The United States and European Union have reported a drop in piracy operations both in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea in 2013. Officials said pirates, who still hold 49 hostages, failed to hijack any vessel off the coast of Somalia since May 2012.

“This is the lowest rate of attempted hijackings in over six years, and certainly since the peak of the crisis in 2011,” State Department counter-piracy coordinator Donna Hopkins said. “No ships are currently held hostage by Somali pirates, although there remain at least 49 hostages whom the international community are working to free.”

In a briefing on Feb. 20, officials attributed the decline in piracy to both Western-led naval operations as well as improved security by merchant ships. They said 1,430 suspected pirates were being prosecuted in 21 countries. “The remarkable drop in piracy is due primarily to two things,” Ms. Hopkins said, “first, proactive counter-piracy operations by the many national navies and missions that are preventing and disrupting pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia and in the eastern Indian Ocean, and better self-protection by commercial ships, including the use of embarked armed security teams.”

Officials said the EU, in cooperation with China, Egypt, Russia and Turkey, has taken the lead against Somali- based pirates, financed in part from the Gulf as well as the Somali community in the United States. They said the EU naval task force has deployed up to seven surface vessels to monitor suspected pirates as well as foil attacks.

“We have changed with the time and the rotations, but usually an average four to seven warships in the region plus some two or three maritime patrol reconnaissance aircraft,” EU delegation deputy chief Francois Rivasseau said.

Rivasseau said, however, that piracy could quickly return to the Middle East and surrounding region. He said pirates were monitoring the level and effectiveness of Western naval operations.

“It is not because we have had such a diminution of attacks that we know that the risk has disappeared,” Rivasseau said. “We see a number of suspicious approaches; we see still a number of attacks which we have been able to deter. And if it’s resurged, then after that it will require higher level of efforts to re-curb it again.”

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Former Somali Deputy PM denies allegations

Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam has strongly denied the graft allegations published by Reuters.

Hiiraan Online By Shafi’i Mohyaddin Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Somalia’s former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam has strongly denied allegations made by former Somali central bank governor Yusur Abrar who accused Mrs. Adam of putting pressure on her to open an account in Dubai to use it for stealing money, according to a report recently published by Reuters.

Mrs. Adam, Somalia’s first ever female to hold a top government post, said in a press statement of which HOL obtained a copy, that the graft allegations published by Reuters on her were libelous.

“I would like to state here the facts about allegations by Reuters regarding the above mentioned graft which have recently been circulating in the international and local media were baseless and I condemn it in the strongest terms possible,” Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam said in her press statement.

“Under the above heading, Reuters reported that ‘ The sources said that according to Ms. Abrar (ex-Governor of Somali Central Bank), the former Foreign Minister (myself) had pressed her to open a bank account in Dubai against her wishes. Abrar resigned without opening it,” she noted in the press statement.

Former Governor of Somali Central Bank Ms. Yusur Abrar - Photo HOL

The statement said that Ms. Abrar, the former Governor of the Central Bank, had been strongly supported by the former Deputy Prime minister to get Abrar take such position as Governor precisely since Mrs. Adam wanted to see an experienced female in that high position to oppose graft (corruption).

Mrs. Adam said, as Reuters stated correctly, Ms. Abrar resigned only seven weeks after she was appointed to the post, however, out of those seven weeks Ms Abrar spent only four days working in the Central Bank(Evidence can be obtained from the Central Bank in Mogadishu).

“According to Reuters, Ms. Abrar has claimed that I have pressured her to open an account in Dubai. However, the fact is that the account was in the process of being opened by the former Assistant Minister of Finance of Somalia and he wanted the new Governor of the Central Bank to co-sign with him. The purpose for opening this account was due to the lack of a SWIFT code for the Central Bank to receive transactions from overseas at that time,” the statement noted.

The statement added that Ms. Abrar was in fact asked by the Assistant Minister of Finance to co-sign with him the account, in order to involve the Central Bank in all transactions. The Assistant Finance Minister confirmed that he was waiting for Ms. Abrar for 4 days in Dubai to finalize the matter.

Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam said in her press statement that her role in the process was just to pass the message from the Assistant Finance Minister to Ms. Abrar, that he was waiting for her in Dubai to co-sign the aforementioned account.

“Ms. Abrar’s positive response to me is also available as further evidence. There was no pressure and/or request whatsoever from myself to Ms. Abrar to open any account, but just to co-sign the aforementioned account which the Government needed to deposit some economic aid to pay its Government employees,” Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam said in her press statement.

“Furthermore, according to Reuters, Ms. Abrar claimed that I have pressured her to sanction contracts – again this is a baseless allegation. For the record, neither me nor the President pressured Ms. Abrar to open an account in Dubai or sanction any contracts. The documentary evidence supporting all the above is available upon request,” added the former Deputy Prime Minister and foreign affairs minister of Somalia.

Mrs. Fawzia Y. H. Adam was also very critical of Reuters for its role, stating that this story implicating her in graft was completely one-sided.

“Further, Reuters has made no attempt whatsoever to contact me to obtain the facts on their story. I shall be seeking legal advice on this matter,” the former top-ranking female official emphasized in her press statement.

Email:[email protected]

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Two Articles about Al-Shabaab Posted: 24 Feb 2014 04:47 PM PST The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published in February 2014 a special issue of CTC Sentinel that includes two articles on al-Shabaab.

The first article is titled "Al-Shabaab's Capabilities Post-Westgate" by Ken Menkhaus, professor of political science at Davidson College. He concludes that al-Shabaab today is both weaker and more dangerous and unconstrained than in the past. In the short term, this is bad news for Kenya, Ethiopia, the Somali government and people, and international actors operating in Somalia. In the longer term, however, al-Shabaab's downward trajectory since 2009 shows few signs of reversal, at least inside Somalia. Additional losses of top leaders could lead to a quick unraveling of the group, at which point the chief security threat will be the residual Amniyat network, which will retain the capacity for extortion and political violence.

The second article is titled "An In-Depth Look at Al-Shabaab's Internal Divisions" by Stig Jarle Hansen, associate professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. He concludes that al-Shabaab will likely continue to attack countries that have deployed forces in Somalia. Al-Shabaab's biggest danger to the West is most likely through potential logistics support for other al-Qaeda units, its indoctrination of Somalis into al-Qaeda's ideology, and its growing reach in African countries. http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CTCSentinel-Vol7Iss2.pdf

The beauty of Djibouti: A breath of fresh air in the Horn of Africa

Perched on the Horn of Africa, and controlling access to the Red Sea, Djibouti has become a nerve centre for America's battle with al-Shabab. But despite nestling between some of the world's most dangerous countries, it feels surprisingly tranquil (Photo By: Frank Gardner).

By Frank Gardner Friday, February 21, 2014

A flag. A great big Stars and Stripes fluttering in the African breeze. That is the first thing I noticed as we landed at Djibouti airport, on the shores of the Gulf of Aden. The only permanent US military base in Africa is right next to the civilian terminal. Gunmetal grey transport planes take their turn queuing on the runway with the incoming Air France Airbus from Paris.

Camp Lemonnier, a former French Foreign Legion base, is so close to the terminal you can actually hear the bugle calls as the US flag goes up and down at the start and end of each day.

When I first came here, 20 years ago, Djibouti still felt very much like a French protectorate. Sunburned legionnaires in khaki shorts and kepis stood watch over arriving passengers. The country, which became independent from France in 1977, had just defeated an insurgency on its border with Eritrea, and there were mine craters in the road out of town. The capital, imaginatively called Djibouti, was dimly lit and dodgy after dark.

Things have improved here since then. The town has more lighting, the mine craters have been filled in, and the rural signposts with rusting bullet holes removed. The tiny capital, with its broad, leafy boulevards and cafes, also feels more cosmopolitan.

"Frank Gardner," a voice hailed me as I rolled down the street in my wheelchair. "I listen to you on the BBC," he said.

Abdi had spent eight years living in Manchester, now he was teaching at the national university. Coming back to Djibouti after all that time was hard, he said, and he missed the rain, but I was pleased he felt his future was here.

I was hailed too by the town's small colony of beggars on crutches and in wheelchairs. They seemed enormously cheered to see a foreigner visiting in a wheelchair and gave me great slaps on the back and thumbs-up as I rode past.

Europeans do feel curiously at home here. For a country sitting uncomfortably close to two of the world's most tense and dangerous hotspots - Yemen and Somalia - Djibouti is extraordinarily relaxed.

You see French families strolling round town in shorts and skirts, babies cradled on their shoulders, and teenage girls in skimpy T-shirts skipping across the road, smiling at the Djiboutian gendarmes.

There are bars too, not that we had time to visit them, and I've heard Djibouti described as the Sodom and Gomorrah of East Africa, luring working girls from neighbouring Ethiopia to mingle with French sailors coming ashore on port calls.

Yet for five months the Americans here were confined to their base after security was stepped up following the al- Shabab attack on Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall.

Unlike the French, who often give the impression of being either on holiday or still in charge here, the Americans are very much on their guard for a terrorist attack.

Strapping myself into a Pavehawk helicopter, I took off with the US Air Force combat rescue pilots for what turned out to be the most breathtaking low-level flying over the Rift Valley.

As a routine training flight, the door machine gun was mercifully unmanned and I had an uninterrupted view of the crinkled ravines and dry thorn bushes flashing past just 100 feet below.

We circled Lake Assal, the lowest lake in Africa at 515 feet below sea level. Devoid of life yet stunningly beautiful, its saline surface glittered in the sun, hemmed in by fields of black, volcanic lava. It looked like a landscape from the dawn of time and frankly, a dinosaur would not have looked out of place here.

I longed to be down on the ground myself so on our final day, our broadcasting all done, I flagged down a battered green taxi, agreed an hourly price, and got the driver to take me upcountry to the Rift Valley hilltop town of Arta.

The suburbs of Djibouti are not an appealing site. As the road heads west towards the Ethiopian border you pass through an endless succession of oil-stained workshops, broken engine parts, truck parks and desperately poor shantytowns, a scene relieved only by the vibrant colours worn by the women. But Arta was, quite literally, a breath of fresh air.

High up in the hills, the breeze was warm and clean with the faint scent of jasmine from the walled villas and gardens. I sat on the edge of a precipice, shared a packet of biscuits with Yunis, the driver, and gazed down at the distant shores of the Gulf of Aden.

Suddenly there was a commotion. Shouts and screams from the tiny stone-walled village in the valley below. A troop of fierce looking hamadryas baboons was marauding through the village, led by a large, red-rumped male.

Women in dazzling scarlet dresses charged at the baboons, waving rags and baring their teeth. The animals regrouped, then slunk away, probably to plan a night-time return. But for now, peace had returned to Djibouti's tranquil Rift Valley.

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UN identifies Kismayo, Luq and Baidoa as safe for return of Somali refugees

Saturday, February 22, 2014

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) announced on Thursday (February 20th) that it deemed three regions in southern Somalia safe for Somali refugees in Kenya to return, Somalia's RBC Radio reported.

Speaking at a press conference in Nairobi, UNHCR's representative in Kenya Raouf Mazou said the agency held consultations with a number of stakeholders and concluded that Kismayo, Luq and Baidoa were relatively peaceful and safe for returning refugees.

Mazou emphasised that any return of refugees must be voluntary, but noted that the number of Somalis willing to go home was increasing, estimating that the repatriation was likely to take up to two years.

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The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab Posted: 21 Feb 2014 02:42 PM PST The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington published in February 2014 an analysis titled "The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab: A Strategy of Choice or Necessity? " by Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research, a think tank located in Nairobi, Kenya.

In this excellent study, Bryden notes that al-Shabaab's leadership was once relatively heterogeneous, including nationalist and politically pragmatic figures such as Hassan Dahir Aweys and Muktar Robow. There were differences within al-Shabaab over the value of a relationship with al-Qaeda, the wisdom of attacks on civilians, and the role of foreign fighters in the organization. Following a purge of the nationalists, what now remains of al-Shabaab is the more extremist fringe: an al-Qaeda franchise in Somalia, imbued with the "takfiri" ethos that legitimizes the killing of other Muslims, and recommitment to the cause of international jihad and the restoration of an Islamic caliphate. http://csis.org/files/publication/140221_Bryden_ReinventionOfAlShabaab_Web.pdf

Myths about federalism in Somalia Mohamud M Uluso 2014-02-20, Issue The type of federalism being promoted in Somalia is a foreign initiative meant to abort national reconciliation and institutionalize social fragmentation In the context of Somali political culture and discourse, it should be clear by now that the meaning of the principle of ‘federalism in Somalia’ is completely different from the one of political power decentralization for governance explored in the legal and political literature. The Somali federalism legitimizes territorial allocation for ‘clan ownership or dominance’ and it does not recognize ‘the concept of citizenship’ adopted in the provisional constitution. This allocation of territories to specific clans is having far reaching negative implications on the political and security stability, socio-economic development, and resource sharing and distribution among ‘citizens.’ The efforts of the international community to enforce the conflict-ridden federalism in Somalia with the tweak of appealing for democratic values and constitutional rights are patently hypocritical.

Not surprisingly, federalism in Somalia is hitting rock-bottom for new challenges. Some of the challenges include: (1) New Puntland strategy of claiming an equal footing with the federal government as a regional and national power center. President Abdiweli M. Ali included in his new Cabinet ministers from clans not formally constituent stakeholders of Puntland state. (2) Continuation of Jubbaland crisis on multiple fronts (escalating assassination of prominent personalities and widespread clan based human rights violations, President Ahmed Madobe refusal to engage the federal government as a party not as a leader, and the six regions conference in Baidoa, etc.); (3) Hawiye’s scramble to create four federal member states with the center in Mogadishu; This will fundamentally alter the federal government’s raison d'être. (4) The brazen foreign dictates in display in Baidoa where AMISOM forces ordered the closure of over a year-long conference on federal member state of six regions while they supported a new conference for federal member state composed of three regions. The UN special representative for Somalia, Nicolas Kay, issued a biased statement after AMISOM forces opened fire to disperse an angry citizens protesting against the closure of the conference ( video ). As replay of 2013 Jubbaland fact finding mission to Kismaio, the African Union, IGAD, and UNSOM are sending a fact finding mission to Baidoa to support the three regions group and accuse the supporters of the six regions as spoilers since all members of the mission endorsed Jubbaland state which comprises three regions claimed by Digil and Mirifle. The federal government has forfeited or been deprived of the representation and leadership role of Somalia affairs.

Many myths propagated in defense of federalism in Somalia have become entrenched and hard to countervail. Some scholars and journalists continue to repeat the misleading myths about centralism, distrust, and agreement on federalism.

The recently published briefing of the United Nations Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN) titled ‘ Can Federalism work in Somalia? ’ tried to reflect the divergent views on federalism without critical analysis of some of the pro-federalism assertions or without pointing out the danger and unconstitutionality of the current UN led state formation process with no political and legal foundations. The briefing failed to mention that Somalis, for the restoration of the Somali nation-state from 2000 Arta Conference in Djibouti to 2012 Conference in Mogadishu, did agree only on the distribution of power on the basis of clan formula (4.5) representation rather than on any other method. Notwithstanding those observations, the briefing explicitly reiterated that ‘Somalis disagree about whether federalism is a recipe for sustainable peace–and even whether such a system is practicable.’ Therefore, the next logical move is a genuine national dialogue on the issue.

THE SPECTER OF CENTRALISM

The Military regime of Mohamed Siad Barre is presented as an example for the danger of centralism and necessity of federalism. It is true that the military regime concentrated the power of the state in the Supreme Revolutionary Council (SRC). But the regime created national, regional, and district bodies, and passed laws for the purpose of bringing the government closer to the people for public participation in the political, development, and security discussion and decision making process at the central, regional, district, and village levels. The passed laws laid down well-structured decentralized political and administrative structures and powers.

Then, what went wrong? The core problem was due to the systematic disregard of the laws and orders issued or announced and the impunity for abuse of power, nepotism, and corruption. This kind of power exercise has cultivated the culture of saying whatever is right and doing whatever is illegal or morally wrong. Leaders at all levels competed to support every action that breached the laws, procedures, and good common sense to satisfy power-holders. This culture has become a national trait and strategy for advancement.

The Provisional Constitution is not similar to the military revolutionary charters. It creates a democratic system of governance with multiple institutions with checks and balances powers: political parties, parliament, free media, social organizations, civil society, and independent judiciary system. The important condition is to find Somali elite inside and outside the government ready to sacrifice for the application and respect of the rule of law at any level and with regard to everyone fairly and systematically. Federalism or any other system of governance in any part of Somalia cannot change the specter of centralism behaviour unless the Somali people and elite dedicate serious time, resources, and thinking about the solution to this deep-seated culture that fails the existence and survival of a Somali state.

FEDERALISM WITHOUT RECONCILIATION

Another astonishing myth is the claim that Somalis did not reconcile but agreed on constitutional federalism. Am I wrong to see this sequence as a fallacy?

The assertion that Somalis did not reconcile but agreed on federalism because the national government carries the name ‘federal government’ is a charade. The definition of the basics of the federal system has been left to the national stakeholders represented in the federal parliament. The reason why Somalis could not agree on federalism is the incompatibility between federalism based on clan ownership/dominance and federalism based on citizenship and democratic values. Unfortunately, the international community deliberately obstructs the frank debate of this question among the Somali people.

WHAT KIND OF DISTRUST IS IN FOCUS?

Another myth cited for the support of federalism is the deep distrust among Somalis. But the question is, what kind of distrust is in focus? Is the distrust between clans, between clans and state, between individuals, or between individuals and state?

The military regime collapsed when it failed to provide for the basic security needs of individual citizens. Clan federalism cannot build the trust needed between citizens and state, between clans and state, or between clans or individuals. The Federal Provisional Constitution protects and defends the individual rights of citizens. Democracy is the agreed relationship for trust between State and individual citizens.

TWIST IN FEDERALISM BASED ON 18 REGIONS

The IRIN briefing didn’t look into the breach of Article 49 (6) of the Provisional Constitution, which states that ‘based on voluntary decision, two or more regions may merge to form a federal member state.’ This voluntary decision concept based on regions has been replaced by the concept of compulsive dominance of one clan and one person as sole power holder for the creation of each state. Somalia has a cultural tradition that regulates interactions between clans (individual is clan member) but not between state and citizens. Constitutionally, clan is classified as an instrument for racism.

In 1969, Somalia had eight administrative regions. Merger of the present 18 regions could reconfigure the eight regions in line with the Provisional Constitution and study of an Independent Boundaries and Federation Commission.

FEDERALISM IS A FOREIGN INITIATIVE

The consensus is that the federalism in Somalia is a foreign initiative bent to abort national reconciliation and to institutionalize social fragmentation. The process for the formation of federal member states follows certain pattern: (1) an area is assigned to a certain sub clan; (2) an individual or small team is selected and supported politically, militarily, and financially by IGAD, AU, UN, and EU; (3) The individual or small team enjoy the full power to hold conferences and invite their kinfolks; (4) IGAD, AU, EU, UN attend ceremonies for legitimacy; (5) national (Federal) Government is either bystander or accomplice. Puntland, Khatumo, Jubbaland, and the new Conference in Baidoa share that pattern.

CONCLUSION

Again, the prospect for a Somali State remains gloomy because of Somalis being prone to foreign-allegiance rather than to intra-Somali loyalty and compromise. For example, by pursuing secession, Somaliland remains dependent on Ethiopia which supports Khatumo and Puntland as roadblock for Somaliland’s ambition. Jubbaland is a buffer zone between Somalia and Kenya as well as a base to quell the Ogaden Liberation Front. Puntland plays the role of cooperating with Ethiopia and Kenya to challenge Somaliland and the federal government.

The federal government, Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama, have signed separate security agreements that allows Ethiopia security forces and other officials to freely operate in Somalia. By taking advantage of Somali leaders’ selfishness, Ethiopia has systematically erased all symbols of national sovereignty and independence of Somalia.

It is sad to admit that the process for making clan federalism in Somalia as fait accompli will continue because Ethiopia, Kenya, UN, and EU want it to happen. The priority of the African Union to qualify for a relevant regional organization for global security cooperation outweighed its principal responsibility to protect the unity, territorial integrity, sovereignty, dignity, and long term interests of the people of the worn-torn Somalia. Somalia divided in 1884 faces another historical tragic disposition in 2014.

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latimes.com Even China has second thoughts on South Sudan after violence China has been generous with its credit lines in high-risk areas, but South Sudan's ethnic violence put the brakes on deals there. By Robyn Dixon 5:00 AM PST, February 20, 2014

JUBA, South Sudan — After South Sudan's optimistic 2011 vote for independence, the country's deadly December descent into ethnic fighting has tried the patience of Western donors, diplomats, humanitarian organizations and investors alike. But for African leaders, when the West demurs, there's always China, with its deep pockets and generous credit lines. Or is there? As South Sudan's biggest economic partner, consuming 80% of the oil that accounts for almost 99% of its revenue, China matters here. But now, even the Chinese are unwilling to move forward on business contracts. "Unfortunately, everything has changed," Chinese Ambassador Ma Qiang said in a recent interview. "So everything is on hold." The world's newest nation flushed away years of hard-won, expensive progress when a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and rival Riek Machar spilled into bloody ethnic violence Dec. 15. An estimated 10,000 people have been killed in the fighting between the Dinka and Lou Nuer ethnic groups, and an additional 860,000 have been displaced. It happened just as South Sudan was poised to take off: 10 days after a business conference in Juba, the capital, where 500 Western companies weighed investment opportunities that the Economist predicted would result in the world's fastest growth clip this year, 35%. "You are not going to see the IMF and World Bank coming now," said Toby Lanzer, United Nations humanitarian co-coordinator on South Sudan. "The IMF and World Bank were on the verge of significant engagement, and that has been dealt a blow." And those 500 interested companies? Also unlikely, analysts say. The fighting began only days after the powerful Export-Import Bank of China was preparing to offer $2 billion in loans and credit to build six strategic roads, including a crucial 1,500-mile highway linking the capital with Sudan's main port. The plan also called for construction of a hydropower plant in the state of Eastern Equatoria, bridges across the Nile (there are now just two), schools and hospitals in every county, a government conference center and a stadium. And just two days before the December fighting began, Ambassador Ma met with Kiir to discuss the final stages of a Chinese plan to rebuild the chaotic airport in Juba, the capital. Ma had planned to sign the airport deal after the weekend party conference of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement. But the political meeting ended in acrimony, triggering the bloody battles that pushed the fragile country to the brink of civil war. A cease-fire and peace talks deal signed last month haven't stopped the fighting, and some analysts worry about prolonged instability and a guerrilla rebel campaign. China has long maintained a no-strings-attached approach to doing business in Africa, with little involvement in conflict resolution. But the friction in recent years between Sudan and South Sudan, and now within South Sudan, has resulted in a marked change because of China's interest in maintaining its oil supply. The China National Petroleum Corp.'s investments in South Sudan's oil industry are vital to the Chinese economy, Ma says, but Beijing's legendary patience with high-risk environments has been tested. Since South Sudan gained independence, oil production has repeatedly been interrupted or threatened by conflict as the nation's leaders have launched war on each other, invaded Sudan and temporarily shut down production. When President Kiir abruptly turned off the spigot two years ago in a clash with Sudan over oil transit revenue, it cost China's national oil company millions. China exerted pressure on Kiir as well as Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir to end the dispute and get oil flowing again, which came 14 months after the shutdown. In the latest fighting, both Kiir and Machar appeared willing to sacrifice the lives of hundreds of innocent people to maintain the strongest position at the negotiating table. In the ethnic violence, Lou Nuer people were rounded up and killed in Juba; in rural areas, Dinka were slain. After the violence erupted, Ma called on Kiir to agree to unconditional peace talks. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met the warring sides in Ethiopia, asking for an end to the violence. "South Sudan could have a good future through political dialogue. Stop any violence or war or any conflict," Ma said. The fighting shut down oil production in Unity state and Chinese workers and engineers had to be evacuated, but production has continued in Upper Nile, Ma said. The change in South Sudan's prospects has been devastating. "It was going to be the year of South Sudan, the year when it was all going to take off," said Jose Garcia Barahona, country director for Oxfam. Now, instead of economic growth, foreign aid is needed to head off starvation. "It's obvious to everybody that the priority must be lifesaving assistance," said Lanzer of the U.N. The world body has launched a $1.27-billion emergency appeal as about 3 million people face acute hunger. "What has happened is not only a terrific blow to those who have been directly affected, but it's a blow to the aspirations of the country, because it would have been moving forward far faster … and now it's moving backwards," he said. New roads, which Western interests usually don't build because of the difficulty and expense, remain the key piece to transforming the economy and the lives of rural South Sudan residents, Ma said. "In China, we have a proverb: If you want to reach somewhere, first you have to build a road. That's our plan to help South Sudan and its people and government," the ambassador said. "After building the roads, we can establish all development, more and more projects, industrial, agricultural and infrastructure. Everything can start." Of course, he said, if a peace deal is reached and the country stabilizes, China will be able to sign the airport contract quickly, perhaps even in March. "Maybe next month, if everything is OK, everything is smooth.…" He trailed off, with a small regretful smile, shaking his head almost imperceptibly. "But I think we will need time now. I'm afraid this political dialogue between the two sides needs more time. I think it will not be a short time before you can reach agreement and dissolve all the problems between them. "So.…" Again the delicate pause. "We just wait." [email protected] Copyright © 2014, Los Angeles Times

First Hand Report on Situation in South Sudan Posted: 19 Feb 2014 04:49 PM PST Two long-time observers of the situation in South Sudan and Sudan, John Prendergast and Ted Dagne, visited Bor and Juba in early February 2014. Their 19 February 2014 report titled " Peace Must Come Soon: A Field Dispatch from South Sudan " was published by !Enough.

They report that Juba's neighborhoods are now ghost towns. Increasingly, fighting is taking on ethnic-based undertones, which sustains the widespread perception of an inter-communal threat. Uganda played a decisive role in supporting the government's defense of Juba, the protection of the oilfields, and the recapture of key towns in Greater Upper Nile. But Uganda's role risks derailing the IGAD mediation effort. They quote senior government of South Sudan officials as saying there is no hope that Riek Machar can come back to the SPLM and it will be very difficult to reestablish an army that has both Dinka and Nuer. They raise questions about the role of Eritrea.

South Sudan: What is really standing in the way of lasting peace? 10 February 2014

On 16 December last year, fighting erupted within the presidential guard of South Sudan. President Salva Kiir quickly classified this as an attempted coup by former vice-president Riek Machar, who had been dismissed just a few months earlier. Machar denied responsibility and the conflict rapidly spread from the capital of Juba to other states, including Jonglei. The crisis, which started as a political issue, has since taken on ethnic undertones between the Dinka and Nuer communities. This has highlighted a number of longstanding grievances in the country. Both sides have undertaken mass atrocities and the United Nations (UN) has reported killings, arbitrary detention, forced disappearanc- es, sexual violence and widespread destruction of property during the conflict. Thousands have been killed, with an estimated 70 000 people seeking protection at UN camps and 30 000 in the two UN compounds in Juba alone. The response of the international community has been largely one of surprise. Closer examination, however, reveals fundamental flaws in many of their peacebuilding strategies. In a 1992 report named ‘ An Agenda for Peace ,’ the UN defines peacebuilding as ‘actions to identify and support structures to solidify peace and avoid a relapse to conflict.’ This view, which remains the core of peacebuilding interventions even today, assumes that if the right kind of state can be created (most times democratic), this will contribute towards stability. Yet this fundamentally ignores problems associated with statehood in most parts of Africa, such as the politics of power and ethnicity that are currently manifesting in South Sudan. These problems need to be overcome if lasting peace is to be achieved. The fact that peacebuilding and state-building are closely connected and mutually reinforcing cannot be disputed; indeed, peace is more likely and sustainable if states function well and serve their citizens. Such a state is more likely to provide public goods that their citizens rightly expect of them when they operate under peaceful conditions. However, this nexus is not as easy to reach in fragile states. As it stands, the focus of peacebuilding has been to strengthen states and their institutions, which assumes that peace can be designed. A recent ISS paper notes that effective peacebuilding must tackle the tensions between building states and government on the one hand, while working at grass-roots level on the other. In South Sudan, community-based programmes such as dialogues did not sufficiently feed into national level or include those elites with influence. These programmes also failed to address the national systems that regulate and enable violence, such as the president’s excessive power, the lack of party structures within the Sudan Peo- ple’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), ethnic-based recruitment, corruption and the legislature being at the mercy of the executive. There is another dimension to peacebuilding that deserves greater focus in the case of South Sudan: that of reconciliation and dialogue. The international community had high expectations for peace after the signing of the 2005 Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which led to the eventual independence of the South in 2011. The international community saw the conflict between North and South as the main threat to peace and overlooked the deeply entrenched divisions within South Sudan that would continue to shape relationships post- independence. Although a number of peace conferences took place in subsequent years, the role of ethnicity and power relations needed to be recognised as a major cause of vulnerability. Without the active involvement of key political actors in the country, these peace conferences seem not to have been taken seriously by influential powers, as they were not put in practice in terms of the government procedure. The majority of the aid sector in South Sudan has also assumed that greater development (by way of improved services) would lead to stability and lasting peace. A report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) challenged these assumptions and found no evidence of a causal link between the provision of basic services and a reduction in conflict. Transition from war to peace is thus not simply a technical exercise; rather it is a highly political process that requires an appreciation of underlying issues that fuel the conflict. It is not just the provision of basic services that matters, but how they are distributed, and to whom. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) sponsored a ceasefire agreement between the warring parties in South Sudan that was signed in Addis Ababa on 30 January 2014. Both sides agreed to halt hostilities and South Sudan’s government agreed to release 11 high-profile ‘political’ detainees. The UN, under Resolution 2132 (2013) , is in the process of deploying an extra 5 500 peacekeepers to South Sudan, bringing the eventual total number to 12 500. Although interventions are a good step in re-establishing peace, previous approaches require serious revision in order to produce long-term solutions. Post-conflict states need to take ownership of their own peacebuilding processes in a holistic manner that addresses the concerns of the whole population, with the international community’s support. The international community also needs to be less prescriptive in its solutions and more flexible in its approaches. In post-conflict states it is important to invest in pillars of lasting peace such as reconciliation and dialogue, rule of law, good governance, social cohesion, as well as economic and environmental sustainability. The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) mandate addresses some of these elements of peacebuilding, but these are largely state-centric. Given the rise in conflict, UNMISS must also consider if it has the capacity to address such issues. Short-term interventions lack an understanding of causality. In South Sudan, the majority of interventions have occurred without a good understanding of context, applying a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Future peacebuilding strategies should not marginalise any of the parties involved, such as armed groups, the diplomatic community, civil society actors and traditional and community leaders. A strategy for citizen engagement should be devised in order to address the many deep-rooted grievances. Most importantly, peacebuilding processes need to have political buy-in from the influential elite who have contributed to existing tensions. Sibongile Gida, Intern and Amanda Lucey, Senior Researcher, Conflict Management and Peace Building Division, ISS Pretoria

Somali Refugees in Yemen Asked to Be Taken Back to Their Country

Newly arrived Somali refugees wait to be registered at a refugee camp in Yemen.

Thursday, February 20, 2014 A substantial number of Somali refugees in Yemen are requesting to be return back to their home country Soma- lia following roughly when 5000 Somali refugees were recently transferred back to their country.

The Somali refugees in Yemen insisted on the Somali and Yemen governments to work together and make it easier for the safe homecoming back to the motherland; Somalia.

They also asked for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's government to fulfil the promise they made to those who want to go back to Somalia.

Yemen is home to thousands of Somali refugees who fled the motherland after struggle and a civil war hit their country.

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