European Union Training Mission

PRESS SUMMARY 13th October 2018

“In ‘Media’ stat virtus”

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SUMMARY TITLE PAGE Somalia: Allied troops lauch operation to clear main supply routes 2 Somalia Set To Mark Somber First Anniversary Of Deadliest 3 Bombing AMISOM Leadership Assesses Troops Welfare 4 THE CORRUPTION SCANDAL IN THE HEART OF SOMALI 5 GOVERNMENT UN highlights illegal Somali charcoal trafficking to Iran 8 Norway Contributes NOK 450 Million to Multi Partner Fund in 10 Somalia Mobile Money Transfers Have Taken Off In Somalia, But There Are 12 Risks Increased Attacks Suggest al-Shabaab Resurgence 14 Somaliland govt challenged to source internal ways of generating 18 income Are youth the key to ending violence in Somalia?? 21 Famine and the machine - Can big money and big data make 23 famine a thing of the past

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https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-allied-troops-launch- operation-to-clear-main-supply-routes

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Somalia Set To Mark Somber First Anniversary Of Deadliest Bombing

12 October 2018

Somali government says it’s planning to hold nationwide memorial events to mark the first anniversary of the deadliest bombing that devastated the Somali capital and killed more than 700 people on October 14th last year. The bombing caused by massive truck bomb hit one of the city’s business districts, devastating an area full of business premises and hotels, and killed many people.

The powerful blast has also left hundreds of people missing and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. One year on, which still bears scars from the bombing and is preparing to remember those who have been killed on that fateful day, as mood of sadness overwhelmed the city hard hit by the bombing in preparation for groundbreaking ceremonies to remember the dead.

Meanwhile, Somali cabinet on Thursday said that October 14th, would be declared as a national day to remember the victims of blasts carried out by ‘terrorists’, referring to the Al- Qaeda linked Al-Shabaab group, that often carries out deadly bombings across the country. According some organizers, Mogadishu’s residents will also observe a moment of silence to mark the time the catastrophic truck bomb went off during the upcoming events.

The anniversary comes as residents still struggling to figure out the motive behind the bombing, since no group claimed to have carried out. Somali government has subsequently blamed Al-Shabaab for the bombing http://somaliamediamonitoring.org/october-12-2018-daily-monitoring-report/

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AMISOM Leadership Assesses Troops Welfare

12 October –2018 - The AU Special representative for Somalia and the head of AMISOM, Ambassador Francisco Caetano Madeira, on Wednesday toured Jazeera II Camp in Mogadishu, to assess the progress made in the relocation and resettlement of military and police contingents, who vacated the Mogadishu International Stadium last August. The contingents, which were previously hosted at the sports facility, relocated to Jazeera II Camp, pave way for the rehabilitation of the stadium, which had been occupied by AU troops since 2011, when they pushed out al-Qaeda affiliated terror group Al-Shabaab out of the capital city of Mogadishu. While applauding the troops for the swift relocation, Ambassador Madeira who inspected new accommodation and kitchen facilities, noted the self-sacrifice and resilience demonstrated by the troops, who had to move to partially built accommodation at Jazeera II Camp, to free-up the stadium for reconstruction.

The 60,000 capacity stadium, Somalia’s biggest, will open its doors to sporting activities once its refurbishment is complete. “We know that they have accepted to make the required sacrifice so that we could beat the timetable in order for us to transition the stadium from the control of AMISOM to the control of the Somali security forces,” Madeira noted. The transfer of the management of the stadium to the Federal Government took place on 28th August, after an inspection tour of the facility by President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed. A formal handover of the stadium’s assets to the Federal Government is expected to take place soon.

“I want to thank the contractors and UNSOS for having understood the urgency of relocating us to this place (Jazeera II Camp) and putting in place the required equipment for our soldiers to live in acceptable conditions,” Madeira observed. He was flanked by the Deputy Force Commander in charge of Operations and Plans Maj. Gen. Charles Tai Gituai and AMISOM Deputy Police Commissioner Christine Alalo. http://somaliamediamonitoring.org/october-12-2018-morning-headlines/

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THE CORRUPTION SCANDAL IN THE HEART OF SOMALI GOVERNMENT

October 11, 2018

This article is part one of a series on corruption and misappropriation of public funds within the Ministry of Finance, Federal Government of Somalia.

In Somali politics, corruption is the name of the game. To understand this, one shouldn’t look far than the norms at play in public institutions. Its culture seems to have seeped in all aspects in governance. The higher you go in government is the lesser chances for accountability, particularly at the Presidency, Office of Prime Minister, Finance, Telecom and Petroleum ministries.

At the Ministry of Finance, millions of dollars, some of them donor funds for development, are misappropriated or wasted by the minister through personal expenses, double-dipping salaries for cronies as staff and false acquisition of armored vehicles, monthly expenses, travel expenses and furniture.

However, this is not first time Mr. Abdirahman Duale Beyle is serving as minister in Federal Government of Somalia (FGS); he once led the country’s Foreign Affairs portfolio from 17 January 2014 to 27 January 2015. During that period, embassy missions complained from a crippling policy he imposed, which siphoned 30% percent from allocated budgets. Some missions were even forced to closures.

Now, Beyle is the minister of finance since April 2017 in an administration that cares only for loyalty and patronage. Evidences we obtained from the government through whistleblowers indicate how corruption is deepening in the federal government.

Mr. Abdullahi Hussein Nor, Mr. Liban Obsiye and Mr. Nor Ali Omar (Dubad) are close partners employed by the minister with salaries from several sources funded by the World Bank and (AfDB), Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Somalia Embassies. Nor and Dubad are particularly paid salaries, bonuses, food and

EUTM - SOMALIA 5 EUTM - SOMALIA 13/10/2018 accommodation allowances from the World Bank grant (salaries as Administrative Assistant and Communications consultants), Ministry of Finance (Salaries, food and accommodations) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (salary for Abdullahi), about total of $6,235 for Abdulahi and $11,500 for Dubad.

Obsiye, on the other hand, is an inexperienced policy advisor with a generously package from African Development Bank ($7,000), Ministry of Finance ($4,000 Gunno and $2,500 food and accommodation) and the Somalia Embassy in Sweden ($2,085) as the deputy head of the mission, in total $15,585 per month with a total $33,320/month, from the donor funds (World Bank and African Development Bank) and Somalia tax payers money as civil servants under the payroll of the Finance and the Foreign Affairs ministries (sees the supporting documents). This violates the IMF- Somalia Staff Monitored Program (SMP) agreements which has clear benchmarks against double dipping practices.

In addition, Minister Beyle instructed his ministry to cover the cost of their hotel expenses for approximately $2,500 per person per month. The hotel in question is known as Sayid, which is at closer proximity to the State House.

With little background checks, the results show mediocre history of employment as well as lack of technical and professional experience with respect to the qualifications required by the job descriptions. In reality, Mr. Abdullahi answers the phone calls on behalf of minister Beyle. Dubad acts as a protocol officer while Obsiye supports as a personal assistant to the minister, including in his overseas travel.

According to our sources, who insisted on anonymity, there never was a formal recruitment process involved in the hiring of Liban, Dubad and Abdullahi. This practice was said to be an accepted norm within the ministry since Minister Beyle came to the Ministry, as long it attends the interest of the minister. As a result, assignments and responsibilities within the ministry turn an increasingly herculean task to deliver.

The Minister who is also a parliamentarian in name only, lacks the competency, leadership skills and integrity to lead the Ministry. According to spurt sources since the Minister took over the Ministry in early 2017 the Ministry has been deteriorating institutionally and became only his office, while he paralysed the work of the director general, departments of

EUTM - SOMALIA 6 EUTM - SOMALIA 13/10/2018 the ministry, instead of focusing leadership and policy formulations in the Ministry. There is no clear term of references in the departments and the Ministry in general, roles and responsibilities are not clear, there are no division of labor and responsibilities of the work, of particular concern is the Procurement process for the African Development Project- Economic Financial Governance (EFG) phase II, where the Minister appoints ad hoc procurement team from his office and instruct them to select predetermined persons and companies he wants to give contracts.

Moreover, he has difficulties in understanding important issues and misleads government and Somali public, in July 15, 2017 the federal parliament asked the minister his earlier press release which he claimed 90 per cent increase of revenue of the government which was not correct, the minister responded that he was “overexcited” when he made the announcement.

Despite the rhetoric of the Prime Minister in general against corruption, nothing meaningful has been done to curb the high-level corruptions in the key institutions in the government. Transparency International, an organization that leads global fight against corruption, puts Somalia at the top of world’s most corrupt state since 2011 in the yearly annual corruption perception index reports.

Corruption has serious implications in the overall functioning of the government, public trust, governance, rule of law and security, in the absence of a meaningful political will, leadership and legal mechanism against corruption, this malignant abuse of authority as we can see from these cases in the Ministry of Finance will certainly continue to stifle development in Somalia as it affects more on the innocent Somalia people down the road. https://wardheernews.com/the-corruption-scandal-in-the-heart-of-somali-government/

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UN highlights illegal Somali charcoal trafficking to Iran

12 October 2018

Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab rebels are profiting from the illegal trafficking of charcoal exports produced in Somalia and transiting through Iran, United Nations experts said in a report recently shared with the UN Security Council.

"The process involved using false Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Ghana certificates of origin to import Somali charcoal, repackaging the charcoal from typical blue-green bags into white bags labeled as 'Product of Iran,'" said the report, excerpts of which AFP has obtained.

The document, which has not yet been made public, said Iranian ports in the Kish and Qeshm free zones have been the main destinations of the shipments since March 2018.

They would then travel onwards to ports in countries including the United Arab Emirates and , where the charcoal is mainly used for smoking shisha water pipes.

The UN has banned Somali charcoal imports since 2012 in order to cut sources of revenue for the Shabaab, which levies taxes on charcoal production in regions they control.

The world body estimates that some 3.6 million bags of charcoal were produced in 2017 for exports, generating some $7.5 million in revenue for the Shabaab.

The report shared with the Security Council was drafted by a UN group of experts tasked with applying sanctions slapped on Somalia.

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The document called Iran a "weak link" in implementing the charcoal ban and pointed to countries such as Ghana and the Ivory Coast for allowing charcoal traffickers to "exploit weaknesses" in the certification processes.

"Overall implementation of the charcoal ban by member states has improved compared to the previous mandate, and seizures of cargoes of Somali charcoal by Oman and the UAE have been influential in deterring the illicit charcoal trade," it added.

"However, implementation has also been inconsistent."

The Shabaab have vowed to overthrow the Somali government, which is backed by the international community and the 20,000-strong African Union mission in the country, AMISOM.

While they were pushed out of Mogadishu in 2011 and lost many of their bastions, they still control vast rural zones in the country. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-6270835/UN-highlights-illegal-Somali- charcoal-trafficking-Iran.html

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Norway Contributes NOK 450 Million to Multi Partner Fund in Somalia

12 Oct 2018

BALI, Indonesia, October 12, 2018—The Norwegian Government announced a commitment of NOK 450 Million ($54.3 million) to support the reconstruction, reform and development process in Somalia. Channelled through the World Bank’s Multi Partner Fund (MPF), the contribution will provide resources through the Government’s systems to address the country’s most critical challenges on its path towards stability.

The additional financing from Norway comes two weeks after the approval of Somalia’s first Country Partnership Framework (FY 2019-2022), and the first International Development Association (IDA) financing for government in more than 30 years.

“This additional contribution from Norway signals our recognition of the considerable progress the Somali authorities have made in bringing the country together,” said Nikolai Astrup, Norway’s Minister of International Development. “This contribution reflects our confidence in the country’s institutions. The reform momentum is bringing tangible dividends to the country. This is the time to advance on the back of the gains we have collectively achieved and to sustain progress towards peace and stability”

The MPF has been investing in intergovernmental fiscal reform through the Recurrent Cost and Reform Financing (RCRF) Project. This project brings the Federal Government and the Federal Member States together to discuss resource distribution, service delivery and financial reforms across the country. In September this year, the World Bank Group Executive Board approved the expansion of the RCRF project using IDA pre-arrears clearance grants. The RCRF project will therefore receive financing from both the MPF and IDA. The Norwegian contribution to the MPF will allow for a scale up in the resources going through the RCRF project, which include transfers to Federal Member States.

“This is an important time in the World Bank’s engagement with Somalia. It is also an important time for Somalia’s engagement with the international community, including its neighbours,” said Hafez Ghanem, Vice President of the World Bank for Africa. “We welcome

EUTM - SOMALIA 10 EUTM - SOMALIA 13/10/2018 the significant support from Norway as Somalia pursues the path towards stability. This is the only means to achieve a reduction in the vulnerability and poverty of the Somali people”.

The contribution from the Norwegian Government recognizes the key role of government in increasing domestic revenue and access to services in Somalia, in line with the MPF’s approach to using country systems and putting the government in the lead of the country’s development. The World Bank will partner closely with Norway throughout the implementation process and reform policy dialogue.

The Multi Partner Fund works predominantly through Somali authorities and includes institution-building, economic growth and urban development activities. MPF is supported by the (EU), United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DfID), the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Swedish International Development Cooperation (SIDA), the Royal Norwegian Embassy, Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), the Swiss Agency for Development Co- operation (SDC), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland, Agency for International Development (USAID), Italy’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, and the World Bank’s State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF). https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/norway-contributes-nok-450-million-multi-partner- fund-somalia

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Mobile Money Transfers Have Taken Off In Somalia, But There Are Risks

11 October 2018

A recent World Bank report showed that Somalia has one of the most active mobile money markets in the world, outpacing most other countries in Africa. It’s even superseded the use of cash in the country of 14 million people. Victor Owuor asked Tim Kelly, an information and communications technology policy specialist at the World Bank and the report’s author, to explain the findings and what they mean for the country.

Mobile money initially started as a simple exchange of airtime credit between users. Over ten years ago, mobile network operators formalised this by offering mobile money services. It was quickly perceived as a convenient and safe way of making transactions and storing money. Unlike Kenya’s famous Mpesa mobile money transfer services, Somalia’s transfers are mainly available in US dollars.

Though the companies offering mobile money services are mobile network operators, as in Kenya, they are increasingly forming part of large conglomerates that also offer banking and money transfer services. When looking at the total value of transactions, Mpesa’s are about $ 10 million a month while all mobile transactions in Kenya come to $ 3.17 billion a month.

In Somalia transactions are worth about $ 2.7 billion a month. Several factors have encouraged the impressive uptake of mobile money: Many own mobile phones – about nine out of ten Somalis, above the age of 16 own one. Nearly 60% of Somalia’s population is nomadic, or semi-nomadic, and move around a great deal, to find adequate grazing and water for their livestock.

So mobile money suits their lifestyle and is also used to facilitate trade. Concerns over the high prevalence of fake money, absence of monetary regulation, capacity, and limited access to traditional banking services also make mobile money an effective substitute for cash. Today, mobile money also facilitates vast remittance flows which are critical to most Somali households due to a lack of opportunities in the Somali labour market.

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Taking advantage of this trend, remittance companies are increasingly partnering with mobile operators to transfer funds directly to recipients’ mobile money accounts. Our household survey data suggests that about 73% of Somalis above the age of 16 use mobile money services at least once a month – though most use it a few times a month, and high income earners use it a lot more. About 155 million mobile money transactions take place every month. http://somaliamediamonitoring.org/october-12-2018-morning-headlines/

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Increased Attacks Suggest al-Shabaab Resurgence

October 12, 2018

Al-Shabaab’s recent attacks in Somalia underline the threat the militant group continues to pose in the county and beyond. Since 2007, African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops backed by international partners have waged a military campaign against the terror group, forcing it out of strategic towns, seaports and territories. The AMISOM troops—drawn from Kenya, Burundi, , Uganda and Sierra Leone—have also disrupted the militant group’s main sources of revenue, recruitment and arms supply routes. Several of the group’s top leaders have also been killed in U.S. drone and airstrikes (Standard Digital, January 4). The military campaign, however, has not succeeded in completely defeating and dismantling the terror group. Neither has it significantly diminished its ability to strike. Instead, al-Shabaab—considered the deadliest terrorist organization in Africa—has adopted asymmetrical tactics, increasingly employing the use of Improved Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) (The Star, April 23; Intelligence Briefs, May 24). A series of high- profile attacks since late 2017 and AMISOM’s plan to gradually withdraw troops from the war-torn country has only made the threat the group poses more pronounced (Standard Digital, May 19).

Recent Surge in Attacks

Al-Shabaab has recently staged successful surprise attacks against both AMISOM and the Somali army, a tactic the group has employed with devastating effect over the past several years. The most significant of which took place in 2016, when the group ambushed a Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) camp in the town of El Adde in Somalia. The official death toll was never confirmed, but local reports indicated it was one of the deadliest attacks against the

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KDF, with around 100 soldiers killed during the attack (Citizen Digital, January 15). More recently, on September 21, al-Shabaab fighters demonstrated their operational capabilities when they attacked U.S. forces and their partners in the Juba area of Southern Somalia. Somali forces killed two militants during the attack and a subsequent U.S. airstrike killed an additional 18 al-Shabaab fighters (Capital News, September 24). No Somali or U.S. troops were killed during the attack, but one U.S. soldier was killed and four others wounded in a similar style ambush in June. The militant group detonated a VBIED at the headquarters of Howlwadag District in Mogadishu on September 2, killing at least six people and injuring 10 others. The targeted building is reportedly three kilometers from , the country’s state house. In a brief statement, the militants later said its Mujahideen had carried out the attack of the building in Hodon area of the city (The East African, September 10). In a similar style attack on April 2, the group attacked a Ugandan African Union military camp in Bulomer District, about 150 kilometers outside Mogadishu. The militants used a minibus loaded with explosives to gain access to the fortified camp. Although the number of casualties is unclear, some news reports indicated that nearly 59 soldiers and 30 militants had been killed (The Observer, April 3).

In October 2017, more than 500 people were killed in a twin truck bomb blast outside a busy hotel at the K5 intersection in Mogadishu, a busy street with government offices and popular restaurants. Although the group never officially took responsibility, it was blamed for the attack. This attack is considered the deadliest by al-Shabaab since the launch of its insurgency in 2006 (The Star, February 24). These attacks have underscored al-Shabaab’s continued ability to operate across a range of territories, including within Mogadishu. Further, the group has demonstrated a shift toward increasingly utilizing IEDs and VBIEDs as well as an ability to attack AMISOM and its partners. Al-Shabaab’s resilience sheds further doubts on AMISOM’s plan to reduce its troop presence and the implications such a withdrawal would have on the security environment (Pambazuka News, November 23, 2017).

Shifting Tactics and Operations

Al-Shabaab’s primary target is the government, which the militant group is fighting to overthrow and replace with their own government ruled by Sharia (Islamic law). This overarching goal explains why the group attacks the military, government offices and

EUTM - SOMALIA 15 EUTM - SOMALIA 13/10/2018 officials. The recent series of attacks has underscored their increasing and effective use of VBIEDs. Meanwhile, al-Shabaab has shifted its tactics to strike and inflict damage on public places and installations, with the intention of swaying public opinion in its favor (Daily Nation, September 28, 2013). At the moment, the insurgents control large swathes of territory in Southern Somalia, where its leaders implement a harsh version of Sharia. Recently, the group has seemingly thrived during times of hardship like recent droughts and floods as they have presented the group with a chance to build a better relationship with local communities. Al-Shabaab has provided services such as canals and waterways and distributed food relief in areas hit by drought.

It has moved to other regions of Somalia, launching attacks in the semi-autonomous region of . Although the government refuted the claims, the group said it had killed 61 soldiers in an attack on a military base in June 2017 (Tesfanews, June 8, 2017). Beyond Somalia, al-Shabaab maintains a presence in other countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and more recently Mozambique. Reports suggest that it has been forming partnerships with other militant groups in these countries to expand its activities (Daily Nation, September 21). In Kenya, al-Shabaab is believed to have established bases in Boni Forest in the coastal region of Lamu. Its presence is the subject of a security operation known as Operation Linda Boni. In Mozambique, it is believed to have links with Ansar al-Sunna, a new militant group that recently launched attacks in the northern province of Cabo Delgado (see Militant Leadership Monitor, October 4; Defence Web, June 14).

AMISOM Withdrawal

Despite the increasing attacks, AMISOM troops are set to gradually withdraw from the war- torn country under a UN and African Union-backed process. In July this year, the UN Security Council authorized AMISOM’s further stay in Somalia until May 2019.

Initially, the force was supposed to start downsizing by October this year, but the council delayed the process. At the same time, the UN body declared that the start of the downsizing would not be further delayed past February next year. With the departure, Somali security institutions are expected to fully take over from the AMISOM troops by 2021 (The East African, July 30). President Abdullahi Mohammed “Farmojo” has exuded confidence, saying that his forces are able to defeat al-Shabaab. The president has promised to use the same

EUTM - SOMALIA 16 EUTM - SOMALIA 13/10/2018 tactics that forced the group out of Mogadishu, including military force as well as negotiations with those who have accepted his amnesty offer (AMISOM News, April 13, 2017; African News, March 3).

The looming withdrawal, however, is causing some apprehension within security circles in Somalia and the neighboring countries. Experts and analysts fear the Somali security institutions are ill-prepared to take over from AMISOM troops as they depart. With no significant challenge, al-Shabaab would seize the opportunity to rebuild its operational capabilities and take control of more territory (African News, May 7). The group’s recent spate of successful attacks despite the presence of AMISOM troops has lent credence to this view. They have also exposed the feebleness of the government security institution, which remains weak despite years of investment by the international community. Despite benefitting from actors like the European Union, United States and , the military still lacks the proper training, coordination, discipline, ownership and equipment.

Conclusion

Although AMISOM has succeeded in disrupting al-Shabaab activities in many of the areas it previously controlled, the group remains a lethal force with the ability to stage surprise attacks. Recently, it has displayed this ability by launching attacks against the AMISOM troops, Somali military and public places. The group’s recent successes have proved contrary to recent opinions that it was seriously weakened and on the verge of defeat. As AMISOM troops prepare to depart from the country, it is evident that a new strategy is needed to contain the group when forces eventually depart. Without a new and effective strategy, there is a risk of al-Shabaab re-taking control of the country. Given the current state of the Somalia security institutions, this cannot be achieved without the presence of AMISOM. https://jamestown.org/program/increased-attacks-suggest-al-shabaab-resurgence/

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Somaliland govt challenged to source internal ways of generating income

Remittances were identified as one of the main sources of income to the people with the government tax collection way below its requirements.

The government was also challenged not only to take pride in the peace and tranquility in the country but also to use the same to attract investors and tourists to the country.

Despite improvement in education, health and social welfare the government led by President Muse Abdi Bihi is grappling with rising unemployment among the youth and financial instability.

President Bihi praised the importance of remittances and especially on the impact on the livelihoods of his citizens.

Speakers at the forum talked of the need for Somaliland to push for international recognition in order to access loans from international financial institutions to help in infrastructural development.

“We cannot continue living in isolation from the rest of the world. We also have rights that need to be recognised at the international level,” said President Abdi.

“But we have challenges brought about with lack of international recognition. Our unemployment level remains high due to our inability to obtain our right especially from international financial institutions. But we appreciate the role player by remittances,” he added.

“The first remittances that sent money back home was pioneered by Dahabshiil. Entrepreneur Mohammed Saed set the stage for what we can now say has turned around this country in a way through remittance. History will always remember him.”

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Economist Osman Ahmed Nur said Somaliland has great potential that can be tapped as they build the country.

“Our people are very resourceful, and they have played a massive role in the country’s development in the last two and half decades. We must tap into their talent in various fields,” he said.

“Our diaspora community has supported development. Their remittances have helped build schools, hospitals and other amenities. Some have invested here hence helping the economy to grow,” Nur, who has worked in the World Bank said.

“But we need to identify other areas too. We need to attract foreign investors to come and invest here and explore other areas to get revenue.” To attract investors, the government was challenged to remove barriers for the private sector and cut on any red tape while at the same time reduce the cost of power.

“We need also to encourage Small Micro Enterprises to come up by creating the right atmosphere for them.”

The government has already attracted one major investor to rebuild the port. A US Dollar 442 million deal to rebuild and expand the Berbera Port was signed on Thursday between the government and Dubai company DP World. This will open up the port and create employment.

East Africa’s leading female entrepreneur Amina Hersi Mogeh said women need to be empowered to play a role in economic growth of the country.

“While the country is fighting for international recognition, locally, women and girls too must fight for recognition. A wealthy woman is a wealthy society and a wealthy society is a wealthy country,” said Mogeh who has invested largely in Kenya and Uganda. She said the government needs to help women get capital to start up business and at the same time be able to purchase and own land on which they can use to do business. Somaliland, which has claimed autonomy from the main Somalia government after the war broke out in 1991 is on a mission to initiate relationships with regional states as it pushes for recognition at the African Union and the United Nations.

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In May, ten Members of the UK parliament tabled a signed petition to the House to recognize the Republic of Somaliland.

The petition posted on the official page of the Parliament, first congratulated the people of Somaliland on the 25th anniversary of the day they reclaimed ‘their independence. The government and opposition in the country have maintained they will not relent in their quest for self-determination.

“Our people spoke loudly and with one voice when they voted in the referendum to have an independent state,” President Bihi said.

Opposition party Wadani chairman Abdiqadir Ismail Jirde said Somaliland does not have the leisure and pleasure to go back to the drawing board any more while the minister for foreign affairs and international relations said “The denial of the recognition of Somaliland is tantamount to an economic embargo. It is a crime against humanity. Our people are punished for claiming what is their right. they are denied the right to travel, the right to transact with the rest of the world, the right to get bilateral aid, the right to access concessional credit and the right to develop.

The two-day conference is aimed at showcasing Somaliland’s achievements over the last 27 years and chart its path for the future. Representatives from IGAAD, European Union, Danish Agency (DANIDA) and representatives from several African countries are in attendance. https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/2018/10/somaliland-govt-challenged-to-source- internal-ways-of-generating-income/

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Are youth the key to ending violence in Somalia?

12 Oct 2018

New York October 2018 – Youth, civil society and NGOs joined UN-Habitat and the Canadian Govenrment on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to discuss how young people from Somalia can contribute to bringing about peace.

Nearly 50 young women and men from Afgoye and Mogadishu took part in UN-Habitat’s recent study Youth as Agents of Peace: Somalia and their views helped set out recommendations and a framework for engaging youth in peacebuilding.

“Unemployment is a major problem, but underneath that is hopelessness and a belief that there is no fairness,” says a young Somali woman who participated in the study. “Young people get angry and frustrated.”

Over two thirds of the population is under the age of 30 and three quarters of young people are unemployed.

The study contributed to The Missing Peace: Independent Progress Study on Youth, Peace and Security, which was launched a few days earlier. This publication was mandated by the UN Security Council Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security, which urges Member States to involve youth in the peace process and dispute resolution.

“As we embark on this important work to localize the Youth, Peace and Security Agenda, we need to think much more clearly about the impact of our work, specifically at a national and local level,” said Sharmaarke Abdullahi, Programme Management Officer, UN-Habitat.

The side event used Youth as Agents of Peace: Somalia as a case study for translating the principles of Resolution 2250 into practice. Participants highlighted the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict, emphasized the need to include youth in decision making, and to continue demonstrating the link between youth engagement and peace.

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Speaking at the event, Ilwad Elman of the Elman Peace Human Rights Centre, called for investment in skills building for youth. “For peace and security to be achieved, young people must have hope, opportunities and access to evidence-based programmes and services. However, youth should not be seen as mere recipients of these services, nor stereotyped as perpetrators and victims. Most young people are not engaged in violence, but rather are agents of peace in their own countries,” she said.

The panel also discussed how to translate into practice principles from SCR 2250 and highlighted the importance of a comprehensive approach to peacebuilding and sustaining peace.

“We must learn how to support the agenda from a technical perspective, and measure how it contributes to building safe communities and engaging youth as the main actors,” said Lucie Léonard, Research and Knowledge Manager, Public Safety Canada.

UN-Habitat is creating opportunities for youth is through its Shaqeyso and Rajo programme in Somalia. The programmes provide employment, life skills, job readiness and entrepreneurship support for youth.

Recently UN-Habitat launched the Mogadishu One Stop Youth Centre to serve as a safe space for youth and promote opportunities for decent employment, promote peace and impart important life skills. https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/are-youth-key-ending-violence-somalia

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Famine and the machine - Can big money and big data make famine a thing of the past

In the runup to a 2011 famine in Somalia that killed over 250,000 people, there were 78 warnings. Last year famine nearly happened again, not only in Somalia but in Yemen, South Sudan, and West Africa’s Lake Chad region. Now, a multi-billion dollar venture is betting that big data and smart money can make famine a thing of the past.

The Famine Action Mechanism initiative, or FAM, is led by the World Bank and draws on its $1.8 billion kitty for famine-prone countries. It is taking a fresh look at how famines happen and what it would take prevent them, including artificial intelligence (AI)-driven analytics, social safety nets, and new forms of financing. The FAM project is rooted in the belief that donor funding decisions now rely too much on “personal networks as well as political discretion”.

Abdurahman Sharif, head of a consortium of NGOs which tackle nutrition and other needs in Somalia, told IRIN he welcomed new ways to convince donors. “Early warnings can always be tricky, and we’re not always the best at getting early signs,” he said. “Decision-makers,” he added, “won’t take decisions unless they see data”.

Somalia, along with South Sudan, Afghanistan, Niger, and Mali are likely pilots for the data analysis.

Critics, however, say no amount of machine learning and creative financial architecture will change donor decision-making, and warning systems and monitoring tools already exist. It’s political will, not algorithms, they say, that’s the missing ingredient.

World Bank president Jim Yong Kim says modern-day famine is a “collective failure of shameful proportions”. Relief aid typically begins only “when pictures of starving children appear on television”, Kim said at a New York launch event alongside the UN’s September General Assembly. A “proactive” response could save millions of lives, he added, and would cost donors up to 30 percent less than a last-minute scramble. Speaking with representatives

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The project launch was strong on rhetoric and short on detail. Few specifics are available on the World Bank website, although IRIN has obtained a June “concept note” that outlines the strategy and tasks across two main areas of work: prevention and early action. On Saturday 13 October, Kim will host another event on the FAM, this time as part of the World Bank’ annual meetings in Indonesia, with ministers from Afghanistan, Chad, Niger, Somalia and the UK.

The Bank says FAM will invest in at-risk regions to strengthen prevention and resilience and plans to swing into action when a famine is on the way. Its most headline-grabbing element is an artificial intelligence tool, Artemis, to improve forecasting. The Bank has recruited Google, Amazon, and Microsoft to analyse a mass of weather, agriculture, market, and conflict data.

More reliable predictions produced from data, the Bank argues, will remove ambiguity, win swifter response from donors, and trigger payouts from future insurance policies.

One long-term observer of food crises, who requested anonymity, said more money isn’t the solution where relief operations are “at the absolute limit,” and that “another half a billion dollars will struggle to make a big difference to South Sudan” when logistics are already stretched and access and security difficult. The analyst also doubted that data on its own – “better and better figures” – would change inherently political decision-making, pointing out that some famines are deliberate, basically “starvation for political and military aims”.

In a politically charged conflict like Yemen’s, it’s not about “how good your figures are”, the analyst said. Nobody wants to look bad because a famine is declared on their watch. This “deep reluctance” among governments may be shared by others, including aid agencies.

Saul Guerrero, a technical director at NGO Action Against Hunger, told IRIN the World Bank is far from being the first to try to model data around hunger. But, given its clout and access to funds, he said it might be able to “create a critical mass” and drive change that is overdue.

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Current systems, based on a methodology known as the Integrated Phase Classification, “need some help,” said Guerrero.

Measuring and declaring famine

The strict technical definition of famine has become more scientific over the years. The five- step Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system, developed in east Africa, is now used in 37 countries. By combining food consumption with mortality and nutrition surveys, the IPC method, and its West Africa affiliate, the Cadre Harmonisé, scores the severity of the situation. The worst, phase 5, is labeled “catastrophe/famine”. All indicators must cross a certain threshold to reach that phase 5 categorisation and trigger a declaration of famine.

It’s not all down to numbers, however: several pockets of South Sudan were graded at phase 5 in a 29 September IPC update, but famine has not been officially declared. Pockets of people in Yemen may live under phase 5 conditions, but data collection is probably too patchy to confirm it.

The decision of how to interpret the often patchy data comes down to an in-country committee of experts and government officials. As many as 120 people were involved in South Sudan’s IPC committee. In these groups, politics, vested interests, and differing opinions can muddy the eventual IPC categorisations. The task is even more tricky when forecasts months into the future are needed. Officials may fail to agree not only “what the pattern is” but also “what the pattern means”, according to Guerrero.

The most prominent international effort working to supply data to the IPC system is a network funded by the US. Since 1985, the Famine Early Warning System (FEWSNET) has provided analysis, bulletins, and alerts. In an emailed response to questions, a World Bank spokesperson said the FAM would build “advanced analytics” and comb new sources of data. However, there is no intention to replace existing initiatives: “FEWSNET, IPC, and other food insecurity estimators are key to the success of FAM,” the spokesperson wrote. FEWSNET declined to comment for this article.

Feeding the code

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The FAM will draw on a wider range of data sources than current systems: more remote sensing options, datasets tracking conflict, and possibly even social media, in the pursuit of the best model. Early results from the FAM’s AI data modelling are mixed, according to the World Bank concept note. Part of the experiment is to see if the machines can reproduce past IPC results. For a start, analysts fed algorithms various data to see if they could arrive at the same determinations as the conventional (human) IPC analysts. The World Bank spokesperson said the work was at the “proof-of-concept” stage, and continued ground- truthing was needed.

The initial code hit the target 40 percent of the time for South Sudan and 55 percent of the time for Somalia. The preliminary conclusions are unlikely to surprise food security analysts.

In Mali, satellite imagery of areas that are largely desert provided little indication of food consumption. In South Sudan, more violence and higher prices did match up with a worsening food situation, as expected. But in Somalia, there was little correlation between conflict and hunger levels in the midst of near-continuous conflict.

Guerrero acknowledged that the hype around AI could be excessive. Nevertheless, he believes that technology companies can “inspire confidence”, and he welcomes having “people in the room who really understand the technology”. (AI is based on cutting edge mathematics: one model being applied to the data is called “Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function and cross-validated L2 penalty”).

If humans struggle to agree on what the data means, can machines do any better? Not on their own, says Guerrero: “nobody expects it to be a mechanical process”. He says computational power and a complex analytical process could provide a clearer picture: “from greater complexity, greater simplicity.”

Guerrero, who has lobbied UN Security Council members on the issues, said decision-makers feel “the current way of monitoring the risk of famine is not reliable enough… too prone to political pressure”.

“You need evidence”

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Barren fields, rising debt, and desperate measures: What daily life looks like in the drought- stricken provinces of Herat and Badghis

Sharif, the Somali NGO leader, said, “I can’t recall the amount of letters as NGOs we sent to different capitals” to try and mobilise donors to avert famine in 2017. Sharif said he welcomed the prospect of greater funding and more authoritative data that could help convince donors.

“You need evidence to be able to convince them six months in advance, or one year in advance.” The current evidence only works, he said, when you’re already “very close to the crisis”.

The catastrophic effects of late funding in 2011 proved persuasive to donors in 2017, Sharif said. The UN reports that $1.3 billion of humanitarian funding went to Somalia last year, up from $681 million the year before, and a famine was not declared. Sharif said donors gave him the impression it would be “very, very hard” to raise the same amount again.

There’s little long-lasting effect from all that emergency spending, Sharif added. “Are we preventing another famine, two, three years down the line?” Sharif asked. “I don’t think so.”

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