INDEX (e-Scan 16-31 Jan 2021)

S No Rank & Name Country Page(s)

1. Brig RK Bhutani (Retd) CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics 2-6 & Geo-Economics) 2. Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC 6-9

3. Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari JAPAN AND KOREA 9-10

4. Col Siddhartha Sharma WEST ASIA 11-13

5. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) UNITED STATES 13-14

6. Brig Rajat Upreti MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI 14-17 LANKA 7. Col Siddhartha Sharma IRAN 17

8. Col Siddhartha Sharma AFGHANISTAN 18

9. Air Cmde T Chand (Retd) STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES 18-20

10. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) NUCLEAR 20-21

11. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) SPACE 22

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ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 16-31 JAN 2021

CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)

Why China-Pakistan Ties are 'Unraveling' over CPEC. The multi-billion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) appears to have driven a wedge between all-weather allies China and Pakistan. Sharp differences have emerged between the two countries over a $6.8 billion railway line project, which is part of the ambitious China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The impasse has even led to an indefinite delay in the annual bilateral CPEC summit. This is not the first that CPEC has triggered a strain in the long-standing friendship between the two countries.

China-Pakistan ties are in troubled waters these days because of following issues:-

(a) Fallout Over Rail Project

Pakistan has been expecting China to lend $6 billion at a concessional interest rate of less than 3 percent for the Main Line-1 project. The Imran Khan government had even hoped to finalize the lending at an interest rate of just 1%. But to Islamabad’s chagrin, China has shown increasing reluctance over lending money for the project. The project includes doubling and upgrading of the 1,872- km railway track from Peshawar to Karachi and is a major milestone for the second phase of CPEC. Reportedly, China is not happy about lending the money since Pakistan has already sought debt relief to meet the G20 lending conditions and is not in a position to give sovereign guarantees. In December last year, China had even sought additional guarantees before sanctioning the loan in view of Islamabad's weakening financial position. A Pakistani Official had said that China raised the additional guarantees issue to get clarity over Pakistan financial condition after Islamabad applied for debt relief from the G-20 countries, which is only meant for the world’s poorest nations.

The journalist said that China's appetite for investments in large infrastructure projects has diminished because these projects are vulnerable to local politics that delay returns on investment for Beijing.

It had proposed a mix of commercial and concessional loans to fund the rail project going against Islamabad’s wishes of "cheapest lending".

Pakistan is currently renegotiating its $6 million extended fund facility at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was suspended in April 2020.

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The IMF will reportedly resume the program if Pakistan does not take out any new commercial loans, and that is one of the reason it is looking for concessions on loans for the ML-1 project.

(b) CPEC Summit Delayed

The Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) is the primary decision- making body of CPEC. Its first meeting was held in August 2013 and the latest one in November 2019.The report said that the 10th JCC was originally scheduled for early 2020, but has not taken so far.

It said that Covid-19 pandemic was initially cited as the reason behind the postponement but sources later revealed that delay has been caused due to disagreements over the railway project and special economic zones.

As a result, Pakistan's desire to start work on the package-1 from January 2021 would remain unfulfilled due to delay in finalization of financial details.

(c) Spate of Concerns

Discontentment between the two allies had been brewing ever since China decided to tighten its purse strings amid concerns over its investments in Pakistan.

China is slowly backing away from CPEC due to Islamabad's spiraling debt, series of corruption scandals and rising security costs.

Reportedly, only 32 out of 122, projects under CPEC had been completed till the third quarter of the fiscal year.

(d) Corruption Scandals

Besides concerns over Pakistan's ballooning debt, Beijing is also believed to be unhappy about reports of corruption involving Chinese companies that are part of the CPEC projects.

A probe by the Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SCEP) found irregularities worth over $1.8 billion in the power sector, with many Chinese firms receiving undue subsidies.

China's "illegal profiteering" from the power sector was in fact the reason behind the nationwide blackout in Pakistan earlier this month.

Startling revelations about widespread malpractice in the power sector traced 100 billion Pakistani rupees ($625 million) in annual over- payment to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and discussed the magnitude of illegal "profiteering" of Chinese energy companies.

China has earmarked $30 billion for Pakistan's energy sector through 4

CPEC funds. Several Chinese IPPs have been involved in the construction of as many as 27 power plants in Pakistan with a total installed capacity of 12,000 MW under the CPEC program.

Analysts, however, have questioned the viability of these energy projects primarily because most of the Chinese investments focused on generation and ignored the distribution of power, which is clearly in a shambles judging by the recent blackout.

(e) Opposition Heat

Adding another layer of controversy is the role of the CPEC Authority chairman Lt General Asim Saleem Bajwa (retd).

The CPEC Authority ordinance is largely seen as an attempt by the Pakistan government to allow the military greater control over the CPEC projects.

Last week, the opposition parties staged a walkout from the Senate session over the Pakistan government’s "inadequate" response to their queries on the CPEC Authority ordinance.

The proposed law will allow Bajwa to replace the planning minister as co-chair of a Pakistan-China Joint Committee and eliminate the role of the planning ministry as an administrative division. Bajwa is already a controversial figure in Pakistan who is said to have amassed millions of dollars of late. The opposition had even questioned the meeting of Bajwa with the Chinese ambassador when the CPEC authority had no chairman and the CPEC Authority's ordinance had lapsed.

Local media had exposed Bajwa's several offshore businesses, including more than 100 companies and franchises in the US, UAE and Canada in which his families were involved.

Comments. Chinese loans are given with extremely high interest rates. For example, for the Hambantota port project, Sri Lanka borrowed US$ 301 million from China with an interest rate of 6.3 percent, while the interest rates on soft loans from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank are only 0.25-3 percent. Interest rates of India’s line of credit to the neighboring countries are as low as 1 percent, or even less in some cases. Taking in to account, the US-China trade war's impact on China’s economy in the future and the economic distress caused due to COVID-19, China may not be able to generate sufficient foreign exchange surpluses to finance BRI on the same scale as it had originally planned. Imran Khan’s government to get the loan at interest rate of 1 percent is a wishful thinking. China will draw every ounce of political and economic benefit from Pakistan. For instance, Pakistan moved its troops to Gilgit-Baltistan along the Line of Control (LoC) and allowed the PLA to use its airbase at Skardu in June at the height of the face-off. In April only the Imran Khan Government had sought an extension on a debt repayment of $30 billion that Islamabad had taken to build the CPEC. Behind the troop movement lies the cold calculations of easing the repayment process. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/why-china-pakistan-ties-are-unraveling- over-cpec/articleshow/80450316.cms 5

China Sharpens Language, Warns Taiwan that Independence 'Means War'. China toughened its language towards Taiwan on 28th January, warning after recent stepped up military activities near the island that “independence means war” and that its armed forces were acting in response to provocation and foreign interference.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported six Chinese air force aircraft, including four J-10 fighter jets, flew into its air defense zone on 28th January, close to the Taiwan- controlled Pratas Islands at the top end of the South China Sea. It prompted Washington to urge Beijing to stop pressuring Taiwan.

China believes that Taiwan’s democratically elected government is moving the island towards a declaration of formal independence, though Taiwan President Tsai Ing- wen has repeatedly said it is already an independent country called the Republic of China, its formal name.

Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said “The military activities carried out by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait are necessary actions to address the current security situation in the Taiwan Strait and to safeguard national sovereignty and security”. He added, “They are a solemn response to external interference and provocations by ‘Taiwan independence’ forces”.

Wu said a “handful” of people in Taiwan were seeking the island’s independence. He said, “We warn those ‘Taiwan independence’ elements: those who play with fire will burn themselves, and ‘Taiwan independence’ means war”.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby reaffirmed longstanding U.S. military support to Taiwan’s self-defense.“We have obligations to assist Taiwan with their self-defense and I think you’re going to see that continue,” said Kirby, a retired admiral, in the first Pentagon briefing of the Biden administration.

The weekend Chinese incursions coincided with a U.S. carrier battle group entering the disputed South China Sea to promote “freedom of the seas”. President Joe Biden’s government, in office for a week, has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan as being “rock solid.”

Taiwan has denounced China’s threats and efforts at intimidation, and Tsai has vowed to defend the island’s freedom and not be coerced.

Comments. While China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, it is first time that Beijing made such overt, verbal threats of conflict. Probably, China never expected President Joe Biden’s government, which has been in office for a week, to be so prompt in its support for Taiwan. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-idUSKBN29X0V3 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052

China's First Hualong One Nuclear Reactor Begins Operations. China National Nuclear Corp. said its first nuclear power unit that uses Hualong One, a third- generation nuclear reactor, started commercial operations on 30 January.

The reactor, located in the city of Fuqing city in China’s southeastern Fujian province, was designed to have a 60-year lifespan, with its core equipment domestically produced. Each unit of the Hualong No. 1 has a capacity of 1.161 million kilowatts and can meet the annual domestic electricity demand of 1 million 6 people in moderately developed countries, according to China National Nuclear Corp, or CNNC.

“With Hualong One online, China is now at the forefront of third-generation nuclear technology in the world, alongside countries like the United States, France and Russia,” said CNNC President Yu Jianfeng. Yu said the commercial use of Hualong One will also reduce carbon emissions and help achieve China’s low-carbon goals such as carbon neutrality before 2060.A second Hualong One unit is due to be completed later this year.

Comments. Several generations of reactors are commonly distinguished. Generation I reactors were developed in 1950-60s, and the last one shut down in the UK in 2015. Generation II reactors are typified by the present French and US fleets and most in operation elsewhere.

The vast majority of nuclear reactors were built in the seventies and eighties. They are thus considered second generation systems, as they are based on experience gained with the first generation or prototypes built in the fifties and early sixties. Third generation reactors, developed in the nineties, are already a reality and will dominate the market in the coming decades. A significant research effort is underway on systems of the fourth generation. Better economics, improved use of natural resources, less production of radioactive waste, competitive production of hydrogen, and increased resistance to proliferation are within reach with these new systems. So-called Generation III (and III+) are the advanced reactors. The first ones are in operation in Japan and others are under construction in several countries. Generation IV designs are still on the drawing board and will not be operational before the 2020s. https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/China-s-first-Hualong-One-nuclear-reactor- begins-15910270.php#

IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri

China Adopts A New Coast Guard Law Enabling Stricter Measures. The 25th session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress of China passed its latest Coast Guard legislation on 22 Jan 2021. The law – draft of which was released in Nov 2020 – empowers the Chinese Coast Guard to take action, including the use of weapons, when national sovereignty, sovereign rights or jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon or threatened by foreign ships, organisations or individuals at sea. The exact wording in the bill avers that the Coast Guard is allowed to use “all necessary means” to stop or prevent threats from foreign vessels. The bill also specifies the circumstances under which different kind of weapons – hand-held, ship-borne or airborne – can be used. The bill also allows Coast Guard personnel to demolish other countries’ structures built on Chinese- claimed reefs and features; and to board and inspect foreign vessels in waters claimed by China. The bill also empowers the Coast Guard to create temporary exclusion zones as required, to control access to other vessels and personnel.

Chinese Foreign Ministry insisted that the purpose of the Coastguard Law was to clarify the functions, positioning and authority of China’s coastguard, ensure a legal basis for their law enforcement activities, and help the coastguard better fulfill duties and obligations under international norms. 7

Comments. This is the first time China has explicitly allowed its coast guard to fire on foreign vessels, a move that could make the contested waters around China more dangerous. This law comes seven years after China merged several civilian maritime law-enforcement agencies to form a Coast Guard Bureau. After the Bureau came under the command of the People’s Armed Police in 2018, it formally became a part of the PLA.

The Indian legislations covering maritime law and order situations and constabulary role, on the other hand, focus more on taking offenders in custody, and in trying them in appropriate jurisdictional courts. For instance, India being signatory to the Suppression of Unlawful Activities at Sea (SUA) convention of 1988, directs its maritime agencies to apprehend such offenders and hand them over for legal recourse. Since India does not yet have its own anti-Piracy Law – tabled in Parliament in 2019 – the maritime law enforcement agencies are mandated to only apprehend such offenders and subject them to relevant acts of Indian Penal Code. The mechanics of arrest involving the quantum of force to be used by Indian law enforcement agencies, if any, is not specified in open domain.

In this context, it would be quite reasonable for the Indian Coast Guard and other maritime law enforcement agencies to place the mechanics of arrest, detention and prosecution by weapons of maritime offenders, as done by the Chinese Coast Guard Law, in open domain, for better clarity and transparency.

Source:https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213649.shtml

Philippines Raises Concerns over China's New Coast Guard Law. After initially downplaying the significance of a new Chinese law that relaxes the use-of-force rules for the Chinese Coast Guard, the Philippines filed a formal objection by way of a diplomatic protest on 27 Jan 2021. China's newly-enacted Coast Guard Law allows the agency to ‘take all necessary measures, including the use of weapons,’ when national sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon by foreign organizations or individuals at sea. It also empowers the CCG to halt construction or destroy foreign structures on Chinese-claimed land features, like those on the Philippine-occupied Pag-asa Island and Second Thomas Shoal. It gives the CCG broad discretion to set up temporary exclusion zones and to board and inspect foreign vessels within Chinese-claimed waters.

Comments. Philippino Government explained that while enacting a law is sovereign prerogative of China, this one involved disputed areas in open South China Sea; and was thus, virtually a declaration of war against legitimate claimants of the Chinese- claimed maritime territory, if they supposedly contravene this law. He further insisted that if left unchallenged, it will imply submission to it by other countries. Since China claims overwhelmingly large area in the South China Sea as its own, including large segments of the Philippines’ EEZ, it has significant implications for Philippino fishermen and ship operators.

Source:https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/philippines-pushes-back-on-china-s-new- coast-guard-law

Taiwan Tension: US Aircraft Carrier Group Arrives in South China Sea. A US Aircraft Carrier Group led by USS Theodore Roosevelt has entered the South China Sea on 22 Jan 2021, ostensibly to ensure ‘freedom of the seas, build partnerships 8 that foster maritime security.’ The ‘Theodore Roosevelt’ carrier is accompanied by Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill, and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Russell and USS John Finn.

Comments. This happened on a day when Taiwan reported a large incursion of Chinese bombers and fighter jets into its air defence identification zone in the vicinity of the Pratas Islands, amidst renewed tensions between China and Taiwan, which have heightened the level of concern in the US. China has repeatedly complained about US Navy ships getting close to Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea, where Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan all have competing claims.

Source:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKBN29T05J

Joint tri-service Military Exercise ‘Kavach’ in Andaman and Nicobar: Conjoined with Indian Navy’s AMPHEX-21 Exercise. Towards enhancing joint operational readiness, Indian Defence Forces conducted a large-scale joint military training exercise ‘Kavach’ along with “AMPHEX-21” in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal from 21-25 Jan 2021. The exercise was conducted under the aegis of Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC) with participation of Eastern Naval Command (ENC) and Army Southern Command (SC); involving assets of Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard. The exercise involved participation and deployment of all forces of ANC, elements of Amphibious Brigade of Army’s Southern Command along with corvettes, submarine and amphibious landing ships of Navy’s Eastern Fleet and Marine Commandos. Jaguar Maritime Strike and transport aircraft from Indian Air Force also participated.

The exercise commenced with maritime strikes by Jaguar aircraft; Para Commandos and Marine Commandos carrying out Combat free fall along with their combat loads and Air Droppable Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats (ADR) at Car Nicobar. MI-17 V5 Armed Helicopters undertook precision targeting against designated enemy assets at sea and on land. The training exercise culminated with the beach landing operations by Indian Navy’s Landing Ships Jalashwa, Airavat, Guldar and LCU MK-4 class of ships. 600 troops along with tanks, troop carrier vehicles and other heavy weapons landed ashore and carried out beach assault. The logistic team demonstrated and validated the joint logistic system and its capabilities to respond to dynamic changes in operational situations and combat missions.

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Comments. The tri-services exercise fine-tuned joint war fighting capabilities and Standard Operating Procedures towards enhancing operational synergy. It also validated joint capabilities of intelligence gathering from space, air, land and sea based assets, its synthesis, analysis and near real time sharing to achieve battle field transparency for quick decision making. The joint force executed multi-domain, high intensity offensive and defensive manoeuvres in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal – which holds vital strategic significance for India. The concepts of air dominance and maritime strike capability within an area of interest in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) were also validated.

Source:https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1692051; https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/indian-navy-conducts-joint-exercise-army-and-air- force#:~:text=A%20large%2Dscale%20tri%2Dservice,aircraft%20from%20the%20Air%20force.

JAPAN AND KOREA Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari

‘The World’s Most Powerful Weapon’: N Korea Parades New Missile.1 As per Aljazeera on 15 Jan 2021, North Korea displayed what appeared to be a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) at a parade on 14 Jan 2021 night. This marking the end of a political congress at which leader Kim Jong Un admitted severe failings but pledged to boost the country’s military might. The world’s most powerful weapon, submarine-launch ballistic missiles, entered the square one after another, powerfully demonstrating the might of the revolutionary armed forces. The SLBM was labeled as Pukguksong-5, a potentially marking an upgrade over the Pukguksong-4 that was unveiled at a larger military parade in October. North wants to send a message of strength ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next US president on January 20.The North is under multiple sets of international sanctions over its banned nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes and Biden, who was vice president during the Obama administration, is expected to follow a more orthodox approach to diplomacy. The display in parade also included infantry troops, artillery, tanks, and an aerial display during which aircraft formed the number “8” to commemorate the congress.

1https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/15/the-worlds-most-powerful-weapon-n-korea- parades-new-missile 10

Comments. North Korea showcased its new weapons including a new submarine- launched ballistic missile (SLBM) at a night-time parade on 15 Jan 2021 to mark the end of the ruling party's eighth congress. Kim Jong Un watched the parade of soldiers and weaponry in Pyongyang. It was the second large-scale military parade since October 2020. The parade also included soldiers marching information across Kim Il Sung Square. North Korea had unveiled its intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade on 10 Oct 2020 that showcased the country's long-range weapons for the first time in two years. The weapons showcased during that parade were the largest of all past military parades. However, the new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) missile which was showed on 15 Jan 2021 is of much longer range. The tactics for the ramp up its military capabilities may be there to pile pressure on the incoming Joe Biden administration, which was sworn on 20 Jan 2021.

Reference.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/15/the-worlds-most-powerful-weapon-n- korea-parades-new-missile

Japan's PM Suga Says Japan Determined to Hold Olympics This Summer. 2 Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said on 29 Jan 2021 (Friday) that Japan remained determined that the Olympics would go ahead as planned in Tokyo this summer. Amid speculation the event might be canceled again due to the coronavirus pandemic, International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach said on 27 Jan 2021 (Wednesday) the IOC was fully committed to it going ahead. Suga told a virtual meeting of the World Economic Forum that Japan was "determined to deliver hope and courage to the world" through the Games, and he would continue to collaborate closely with Bach to realize a "safe and secure" event."Preparation is progressing solidly," Suga added. Bach described that any speculation about the Games' postponement or cancellation as unhelpful. The government is not planning to start rolling out its vaccine program until late February, casting doubts over whether a significant proportion of the population will have been inoculated in time for the Games. The head of the Tokyo Olympic organizing committee, Yoshiro Mori, told reporters on 28 Jan 2021 (Thursday) that holding the Games without spectators was an option that needed to be considered.

Comments. Japan has decided to go ahead with Olympics this year in spite of it hit by a third COVID-19 wave that has triggered states of emergency in some areas including Tokyo. The Olympic Committee has opened both options for the games with or without spectators. This will be decided after the inoculation of population and observing state of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Olympic Rings were displayed on 23 Jan 2021 in front of the National Stadium of Japan in Tokyo on the day marking six months to go for the opening ceremony.

Reference.https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-29/Japan-s-PM-Suga-says-Japan-determined- to-hold-Olympics-this-summer-Xsb2pX2DcY/index.html

2https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-29/Japan-s-PM-Suga-says-Japan-determined-to-hold- Olympics-this-summer-Xsb2pX2DcY/index.html 11

WEST ASIA Col Siddhartha Sharma

News / Developments

(a) Israel’s military is preparing “a number of operational plans, in addition to those already in place” in reaction to Iran boosting its nuclear programme in recent months, Israeli Lieutenant-General Aviv Kochavi made a statement. Iran dismissed the statement as a psychological war. The comments were an apparent signal to US President Joe Biden to tread cautiously in any diplomatic engagement with Iran.

(b) The United States has flown B-52 bombers over the Middle East. The third so-called “presence patrol” so far this year. The flyover was the first since US President Joe Biden took office on January 20, with the others taking place near the end of Donald Trump’s presidency in what was widely viewed as a show of strength against Iran.

(c) United States President Joe Biden’s Middle East policy “will be to support a mutually agreed, two-state solution, in which Israel lives in peace and security, alongside a viable Palestinian state”, acting US Ambassador to the United Nations Richard Mills has told the UN Security Council.“The President’s view continues to be that a two-state solution is the only path forward,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki added.

(d) Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen led a delegation to Khartoum months after Sudan agreed to normalise relations. The visit marked the first time an Israeli minister headed an official delegation to the North African state.

(e) The United Arab Emirates cabinet has approved the establishment of an embassy in Tel Aviv in Israel, state media said, as Israel announced the opening of its embassy in Abu Dhabi. The UAE controversially agreed to normalise relations with Israel in August, enraging Palestinians who fear the move will weaken a long- standing pan-Arab position calling for Israeli withdrawal from territories it occupies illegally and acceptance of Palestinian statehood in return for normal ties with the Arab countries.

(f) A new Turkey-Pakistan nexus has emerged in the recent past, leading to a complex network of academia, media, and NGOs working to propagate anti-India propaganda. A number of NGO funded by Turkey have propped in J&K. Many suggestive serials of Turkish origin are also popular in the valley.

(g) The rapid production and proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies by Turkey have been a major concern for democratic powers across the world. It has threatened the peace and tranquility of countries from the North Atlantic to the Middle East. A series of recent developments have attracted the eyes of the world on an emerging phenomenon wherein Turkish President Erdogan is banking on Pakistani nuclear and missile technologies to fulfil his geopolitical aspirations. The latest development in the series is the 15" Turkey-Pakistan High-Level Military Dialogue Group (HLMDG) on 22-23 December 2020, which is the biggest institutional setup between both the countries on defence cooperation. It is believed that Erdogan has personally requested Pakistani Army Chief General Bajwa for sharing nuclear weapon technology which Pakistan has reportedly agreed. 12

(h) Two years ago, relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia stood at one of the lowest points in the history of the two regional powers following the murder in Istanbul of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. His killing in October 2018 at the hands of Saudi agents in the kingdom’s consulate led to unprecedented Turkish denouncements of the Saudi government, highlighting what it said was the role of those close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler, in the assassination plot. The two countries are now trying to establish normal relations.

(j) In a recently published fatwa – a legal or general decree by a religious authority or court – the Diyanet, which governs all matters relating to Islam in Turkey, denounced the use of the ornaments, known locally as nazarlik or nazarboncugu, as forbidden.“Although the nature and condition of the evil eye are not known precisely, it is accepted by religion that some people can create negative effects with their gaze. The Diyanet said in an advisory published on its website. “In our religion, attitudes, behaviours and beliefs that attribute the ultimate influence on anything other than Allah are forbidden. For this reason, it is not permissible to wear evil eye amulets and similar things around the neck or anywhere for the purpose of benefiting from them.”

(k) The European Union and Turkey have pressed each other to take concrete steps in order to improve relations long strained by disagreements over a number of issues including energy and migration. Turkey, which remains an official candidate for EU membership despite the tensions, is facing the threat of economic sanctions by the bloc over a hydrocarbons dispute with Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean, but the relations between Brussels and Ankara has improved since the new year. Under pressure from Western allies, Ankara and Athens will resume talks aimed at reducing tensions on January 25, restarting a process that was suspended five years ago.

(l) The latest decision in the country’s Official Gazette Turkey imposed new laws on the popular western social media like Twitter, Pintrest, Periscope etc. The new law allows authorities to remove content from platforms, rather than blocking access as they did in the past. This has raised concerns as people have turned to online platforms in the past years since Ankara tightened its grip on mainstream media after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan survived a coup attempt in 2016. Deputy Minister of Transport Omer FatihSayan said Twitter and Pinterest’s bandwidth would be cut by 50 percent in April and 90 percent in May. Twitter said last month it would shut down Periscope by March due to declining usage.

(m) Turkish doctors and nurses rolled up their sleeves as the nation of 83 million people launched a mass coronavirus vaccination drive with China’s Sinovac jab. Health Minister FahrettinKoca received the first shot of CoronaVac live on television after formally approving the vaccine despite contradictory data about its efficacy rat

(n) Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar has called on the upcoming Biden administration in the United States to engage in a dialogue with Ankara and to review a decision to sanction the country over its purchase of an advanced Russian air missile defence system. Speaking to reporters, Akar would not be drawn into a question on whether Turkey would consider disposing of the Russian S-400 system amid US pressure. But he said he was hopeful that a solution can be found “through common sense before coming to that point”. Akar told journalists in Ankara. “We want the solution of problems through dialogue. If the US side wants a solution, a solution could be found with work on the technical level,” he said. 13

Comments

(a) Turkey is taking a lead role trying establishing itself as a leader of Islamic world and move away from the previous more liberal Islamic country. Denouncing ‘evil eye’ a common practice in Middle East is viewed as a step in this direction.

(b) Involvement of Turkey in valley particularly the tapping of media to further Islamic cause in valley has to be handled by India with great caution. The proliferation of missile and nuclear technology from Pakistan to Turkey and availability of drones from Turkey to Pakistan is a big security threat to India.

(c) Use of the Chinese Covid Vaccine despite reservations of its efficacy is a statement regarding growing Turkish relations with China.

(d) The outcome of Turkey’s S – 400 deal with Russia is being watched with great interest by the world. It is difficult for Turkey to wriggle out of the deal particularly when the first consignment has been delivered. US too would consider very carefully its next step after announcing likely sanctions in case the deal went through. Permitting the deal would have a detrimental effect on its ability to put pressure on Russia. India too is in a similar boat and is watching the developments closely.

(e) Israel is not in favour of the US – Iran deal going through. It is in interest of Israel that sanctions remain on Iran.

(f) Improving of ties between Israel and Islamic countries is hugely beneficial for world order and specially for India which has a sizeable population present in Gulf countries and cordial relations with Israel.

UNITED STATES Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

US-India Bilateral Relationship during Joe Biden Presidency. “Joe Biden Administration to Remain Committed to a Strong US-India Bilateral Relationship” Pentagon press Secretary John Kirby told reporters at a news conference a day after US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke for the first time with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. (They) had a good chat yesterday. They discussed a lot of issues, including our two nations' response to the coronavirus, Kirby said responding to a question on the maiden phone call between Austin and Singh.

India’s bid for the Permanent UNSC Membership Matter of Discussion, says U.S. Diplomat. In response to a question on whether India, Germany and Japan should become permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), U.S. President Joe Biden’s pick for U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that discussions on the subject were underway. She noted that there were arguments for and opinions against these countries becoming permanent members.

Comments. Two conflicting articulations by Joe Biden new team give a confusing picture. While the new US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has responded on the expected line since, both nations have convergence of views on strategic and security issues and India and US are strategic partners as well US has designated India as a major defence partner to bring our relationship 14 implicitly at par with the NATO but, technically, we are not in military alliance with freedom to have independent foreign policy.

The statement of the pick for U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield is contrary to the earlier US position on India bid for permanent membership in the Security Council. US has unequivocally supported India on the membership right from George Bush times and re-asserted by Obama administration which had President Joe Biden in the team. Same was confirmed strongly by former President Trump. Therefore, change in the stance is perplexing. There would always be some countries opposing even the honest bid and entitlement of nation to represent in the world fora. Being the nation with the second largest population, fifth largest economy and largest democracy, India is entitled to sit at the high table. Hopefully, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield statement at the confirmation hearing is an aberration and would be corrected soon. Or else, it has potential to hit at the close relationship of the countries.

MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI LANKA Brig Rajat Upreti

Maldives

A consignment containing 100,000 doses of COVISHIELD vaccines reached Male on Wednesday 2:30 pm Malé time in what marked launch of Delhi’s vaccine diplomacy. With this, Maldives (along with Bhutan) has become the first recipient of GoI’s gift of the COVISHIELD vaccines, manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII). India’s vaccine diplomacy is yet another testament to its Neighbourhood First policy, in which Maldives occupies a special and central place. Maldives Food and Drug Authority (MFDA) on Thursday approved the COVISHIELD vaccine manufactured by India under a special license from AstraZeneca. The approval was issued based on the current circumstance, and only for ‘Restricted Use in Emergency Situations’. MFDA further said that the approval was issued after the technical aspects of the vaccine were reviewed, and based on the recommendation of the National Pharmaceutical Board.

Comments. India has donated large doses of the locally manufactured brand of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to several countries. Inoculations of the vaccines have already started in Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar and will commence in Sri Lanka this Friday. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/neighbourhood- https://avas.mv/en/94816

A hydrography survey has been commenced with India to update the oceanic chart of the Maldives. The MoU for the survey was signed with India during a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) Coastguard Commander Colonel Mohamed Saleem, in a press conference today regarding the survey said that it will be conducted in the Northern atolls of the nation. The survey is expected to yield important information regarding the navigation of the seas in the Maldives, according to the Colonel. “Not from the outer oceans, but travelers face more danger from the inner oceans. We want a chart of how our reefs are formed. The chart will not include any information that is of a threat to national security. The information will mostly consist of regular seafaring travel and information to draw charts for navigation.” Said Colonel Saleem. The survey will be 15 conducted from today until March 15. Indian navy vessel INS Darshak will be taking part in the survey and has now arrived in the Maldives.

Comments. India was chosen for the survey because the Hydrographic Office had selected India as the coordinator for the region. Hydrographic surveys in the Maldives were commenced in 2007 in collaboration with the Indian National Hydrographic Office. The surveys will help prevent dangers in seafaring and permit insurance claims and broaden the economy. https://en.sun.mv/65033

Pakistan

A Pakistani Anti-Terrorism Court has sentenced three leaders of Mumbai attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed’s Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) terrorist organisation to six months in prison in a case of terror financing. Saeed’s brother-in-law Hafiz Abdur Rehman Makki, JuD spokesperson Yahya Mujahid and Zafar Iqbal were handed down the six-month imprisonment each by the Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) Lahore. With Friday’s sentencing, the collective imprisonment of Mujahid and Iqbal has climbed to 80 and 56 years respectively. The verdicts against them will run concurrently in the terror financing cases registered by the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) of the Punjab police. The CTD had registered as many as 41 cases against the leaders of the JuD in different cities of Punjab, the court official said, adding that the trial courts have so far decided 37 cases. In a recent verdict, operations commander of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terror group Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi was given a 15-year imprisonment on three counts in a case of terror financing. Early this week, the ATC handed down 14-year imprisonment each to Iqbal and Mujahid while a six-month sentence to Makki in another terror financing case. Saeed, a UN-designated terrorist whom the US has placed a USD 10 million bounty on, was arrested on July 17 last year in the terror financing cases. The 70- year-old JuD chief is lodged at Lahore’s high-security Kot Lakhpat jail.

Comments. The LeT, led by JuD chief Saeed, is responsible for carrying out the 2008 Mumbai attack that killed 166 people, including six Americans. The US Department of the Treasury has designated Saeed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. He was listed under the UN Security Council Resolution 1267 in December 2008. The global terror financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is instrumental in pushing Pakistan to take measures against terrorists roaming freely in Pakistan and using its territory to carry out attacks in India and elsewhere. The Paris-based FATF placed Pakistan on the Grey List in June 2018 and asked Islamabad to implement a plan of action to curb money laundering and terror financing by the end of 2019 but the deadline was extended later on due to COVID-19 pandemic. https://indianexpress.com/article/pakistan/pak-anti-terrorism-court-jails-hafiz

Pakistan’s government on Friday appealed to the Supreme Court to review its decision to free a British-born Islamist and three others convicted of beheading U.S. journalist Daniel Pearl in 2002. The United States has expressed concern over the ruling and top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken repeated a call for accountability in his first phone call with Pakistan’s foreign minister on Friday. A panel of three judges of the court on Thursday acquitted Ahmad Omar Saeed Sheikh and three other Islamists, who had been convicted in 2002 on charges of kidnapping and murder of 16 the Wall Street Journal reporter. The court ordered the men to be released forthwith if not required in any other case. The government in Sindh province filed a petition asking the top court to review its decision, the Pearl family’s lawyer, Faisal Siddiqi, and a government prosecutor told Reuters. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday “reinforced” U.S. concern over the case in a call with Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s minister of foreign affairs, according to the State Department. The two “discussed how to ensure accountability” for Sheikh and others responsible for Pearl’s kidnapping and murder, according to a readout of a call.

Comments. Pearl, 38, was investigating Islamist militants in Karachi after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States when he was kidnapped. A video of his beheading emerged weeks later. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-us-danielpearl/pakistan-appeals-against-freeing-

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka on Saturday handed over four bodies of fishermen recovered from a sunken Indian fishing boat which collided with a Navy vessel of the island nation on Monday. The bodies were handed over to the Indian Coast Guard at the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) at around 10.00 AM (local time), the Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) said in a statement. The Indian fishing trawler sank in the Sri Lankan waters about 8 nautical miles within the IMBL northwest of Delft Island. SLN launched a Search and Rescue (SAR) operation in search of missing fishermen of the Indian poaching vessel which sank in Sri Lankan waters on 18th January following a mid-sea collision. The SAR operation ultimately led to the recovery of 04 corpses of fishermen victimised by the incident. At the autopsy, it was revealed that three corpses were of Indian nationals and the remaining one was of a person with Sri Lankan origin, who lived in India. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said a strong demarche was made to Sri Lanka’s Acting High Commissioner in New Delhi while the Indian envoy in Colombo also lodged a protest with the country’s foreign ministry, saying steps should be taken to ensure that such incidents do not recur.

Comments. Indian boats have been fishing in the troubled waters for centuries and had a free run of the Bay of Bengal, Palk Bay and the Gulf of Mannar until 1974 and 1976 when treaties were signed between the two countries to demarcate International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). The small islet of Katchatheevu, hitherto used by Indian fishermen for sorting their catch and drying their nets, fell on the other side of the IMBL. As in the past, fishermen from Rameswaram and nearby coasts continue to sail towards Talaimannar and Katchatheevu coasts, a region famous for rich maritime resources in Sri Lanka. Plenty of catch in this oceanic region had triggered a proliferation of fishing trawlers in Tamil Nadu coast in the past three decades. Access to Sri Lankan waters was easier at the time of Sri Lankan civil war but that changed in 2009 with the end of civil war. Arrests and attacks increased on Indian fishermen as they continued entering Lankan waters because of depletion of marine resources on the Indian side. In the last couple of years, Sri Lanka has introduced tougher laws banning bottom-trawling, and has also introduced heavy fines for trespassing foreign vessels. The Sri Lankan Navy arrested over 450 Indian fishermen in 2017 and 156 in 2018 on charges of poaching. A total of 210 arrests were made in 2019, while 34 have been made so far in 2020.

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India and Sri Lanka have agreed to set up a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Fisheries between the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare of India and Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development of Sri Lanka as the mechanism to help find a permanent solution to the fishermen issue. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sri-lanka-india-fishermen-boat-7159120/ https://carnegieindia.org/2016/09/09/india-sri-lanka-fisheries-dispute-creating-win-win-in-

IRAN Col Siddhartha Sharma

News / Developments

(a) The Biden administration has made it clear that it intends to continue enforcing the “maximum pressure” on Iran. President Biden has been very clear in saying that if Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same thing, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran is out of compliance on a number of fronts.

(b) US President Joe Biden has selected Robert Malley, a veteran Middle East official, as his administration’s special envoy for Iran. Malley was formerly a top national security aide to former US president Barack Obama. His appointment is expected to exacerbate an already bitter partisan divide in the US over Iran and Israel policy.

(c) Earlier this month, Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20% fissile strength at its underground Fordow nuclear plant, a level Tehran achieved before the 2015 accord. It had earlier breached the deal’s 3.67% limit on the purity to which it can refine uranium, but it had only gone up to 4.5% so far, well short of the 20% level and of the 90% needed to fuel an atomic bomb. The new law also obliges Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation to produce 120 kilograms (264.55 pounds) of 20% enriched uranium annually. However, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that Iran had exceeded the timetable by producing more than 17 kilograms within a month. Iran has repeatedly said it can quickly reverse those violations if U.S. sanctions are removed

(d) Iran threatened on Tuesday to block short-notice inspections of its nuclear facilities, demanding Washington reverse economic sanctions before it returns to compliance with a nuclear deal that President Joe Biden aims to restore.

Comments.

(a) Both Iran and the Biden administration say they are willing to re-enter the deal but only if the other side makes the first move. Both the nations are applying pressure to negotiate the deal as per their terms; however, Iran has a few diplomatic avenues left.

(b) Rober Malley, the special envoy to Iran would have a key role. He was involved in the drafting of the initial deal. Pro Israel lobby of US is however not in favour of Malley being sent to Iran.

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AFGHANISTAN Col Siddhartha Sharma

News/Development

(a) The Second round of peace talks began on January 6 in Doha however, there has been no significant announcement about how negotiations were proceeding. The talks have been marred by a surge in violence, with a recent spate of high- profile killings of officials, judges, journalists and activists leaving the war-weary country reeling. A member of the peace negotiation team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Nader Nadery, has accused Taliban of not showing interest in attending the formal meetings. Over 9 days meetings have not taken place. There are speculations over the stalemate in the talks. The Afghan National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib had earlier said that the Taliban weren’t willing to make peace. He said that there are credible intelligence reports that the Taliban were preparing for war.

(b) The Pentagon said that the Biden administration would not commit to a full drawdown of troops from Afghanistan by May because the Taliban have not honored the commitments they made in their deal with the United States. The agreement was negotiated under the Trump administration and signed in February 2020. It calls for the militant group to reduce violence and cut ties with terrorist organizations alongwith other demands. If the conditions of the deal were met, US forces would leave Afghanistan by May 2021. The US force level in Afghanistan went down to 2,500 troops just days before former President Donald Trump left office.

(c) Transparency International’s 2020 Corruption Perception Index in an analytical report indicated that Afghanistan has been ranked 165 out of 180 countries on Thursday.

Comments

(a) The peace talks in Doha are continuing at a slow pace. Taliban seems to be testing the US resolve and intention in Afghanistan.

(b) The most possible outcome appears to be that the Biden team stays on course with the troop withdrawal, retaining a residual force to protect the US mission in Kabul and conduct counterterrorism operations to prevent hostile actions from Afghanistan. Furthermore, Biden administration shall push to strike a deal with Pakistan to cajole the Taliban to reach an agreement in the Doha talks for a power- sharing arrangement.

STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES Air Cmde T Chand (Retd)

ESA Developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Space Applications. A large number of space assets are deployed by many countries, including India, in the space for applications ranging from communication, meteorology, surveillance, earth observation and the like. This month (January 2021) European Space Agency (ESA) has informed that there are still some 28,210 debris objects in space which 19 are big enough to damage or destroy a functioning satellite3. There is a pressing need for development of an anti collision system for space as well. According to Thomas Reiter, Interagency Coordinator and Advisor to the Director General at ESA, "Artificial intelligence is becoming vital to handle this complexity, to operate, network, coordinate and protect space infrastructure and to get the most out of the data acquired by our scientific satellite missions." To respond to this need, ESA and the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) are establishing a new technology transfer laboratory. On 27 January 2021, the two organisations launched a joint venture on AI systems to deal with satellite autonomy, the interpretation of extensive, complex data delivered by missions, collision avoidance capabilities and many other applications4.

Space Debris around Earth (SOURCE: NASA)

Artificial intelligence is also crucial for the analysis of the data sent down by observation satellites like ESA's Earth Explorers and those in Europe's Copernicus programme. This data is expensive and time consuming for analysis by human beings. ESA's small satellite launched in 2019, is allowing European industry a to test innovative new software across numerous fields, including artificial intelligence for pattern recognition, autonomous scheduling, deep learning and automated manoeuvring5. Joint Venture of ESA and DFKI is likely to support these and other fundamental AI-related technology development efforts in future.

Daniela Girimonte and Dario Izzo have also published a detailed paper outlining the space applications of the AI6 and summarised that the ambitious goals set down by the various national space agencies call for radical advances in several of the main space engineering areas, the design of intelligent space agents certainly being one of them. They have observed that in recent years, this has led to an increasing

3 ‘Artificial intelligence behind 21st Century spaceflight’;https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Artificial_intelligence_behind_21st_Century_ spaceflight_999.html; 29 Jan 2021 4 ibid 5ibid 6 Daniela Girimonte and Dario Izzo, ‘Artificial Intelligence for Space Applications’, https://www.esa.int/gsp/ACT/doc/AI/pub/ACT-RPR-AI-2007- ArtificialIntelligenceForSpaceApplications.pdf, 31 Jan 2021 20 interest in artificial intelligence by the entire aerospace community with special interest in distributed artificial intelligence, enhanced situation self-awareness, and decision support for spacecraft system design.

India has a large and complex network of space assets which is employing state of the art technologies including AI. ESA and NASA are also expanding employment of AI in a big way. A collaborative approach with these leading space agencies is likely to benefit India more, especially in the field of AI applications. Applications such as AI-Based Assistants and Robots are likely to have important role in future. Scientists are developing AI-based assistants to aid astronauts in their mission to Moon, Mars, and beyond. These assistants are designed to understand and predict the requirements of the crew and comprehend astronauts’ emotions and their mental health and take necessary actions in the case of an emergency7. Intelligent Navigation System, employing AI are already being used by the NASA and in 2018, NASA with help of Intel developed an AI system that helped Astronauts find their way on the planets8. ISRO and Defence Space Agency also may like to explore possibility of more AI use cases for their future applications.

NUCLEAR Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was approved by the United Nations General Assembly in 2017. It came into force on 22 January 2021 after Honduras the fiftieth country as per the article 15(1) ratified the treaty in Oct 20 and deposited it with the UN Secretary General. The treaty is not legally binding instrument on the non- signatories.9

Comments. The initiative is essentially meant to find a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons. The origin of the treaty is based on the humanitarian concern caused by a nuclear explosion as was experienced in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The treaty sets out comprehensive set of prohibitions for any nuclear activity and covers development, testing, production, acquisition, possession, stockpiling, use or threaten to use nuclear weapons. How will it ever achieve the nuclear free world is a question? Firstly, 69 states including the nuclear weapon states did not vote. Secondly, it is legally binding only for the participating nations which have signed and ratified the treaty. There is no mechanism for forsaking the nuclear weapons which already exist with the countries. It will merely perpetuate the right of the nuclear weapon states to continue with their nuclear arsenal while non nuclear states who have ratified the treaty will now be barred. In this respect it takes forward the agenda of P5 nuclear states to maintain their superiority with their nuclear weapons over non nuclear states more or less similar to the Non proliferation treaty of 1970 which too partially imposes ban on non nuclear weapons states and Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) which denies the nuclear technology to non NSG members on the same ground. India stands ready to work with all UN member states towards the objective of a world free of nuclear weapons but, it does not support the treaty as treaty fails to head towards the nuclear free goal therefore,

7 ‘Artificial Intelligence in Space Exploration’, https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2021/01/artificial-intelligence-in-space-exploration/, 13 Jan 2021 8ibid 9https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/what-is-the-nuke-ban-treaty-why-india-other-nuclear- powers-havent-signed-it/592819/ 21 being a non signatory it shall not be bound by any of the obligations that may arise from the treaty. Secondly, it is partial in favour of nuclear weapon states. As per Ministry of External Affairs ministry press release,” India continues to attach high priority and remains committed to universal, non-discriminatory and verifiable nuclear disarmament.”10

Revalidation New START. The United States and Russia had signed the New START for a period of ten years in 2011 during the tenure of President Obama. The agreement limits the size of the two countries nuclear arsenals, with the United States and Russia not allowed to deploy more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads each. President Trump had failed to reach an agreement with Russia to keep the key deal alive despite the fact that Russia had expressed its desire to renew the deal quite a few times in the last year.

Reports suggest that Russia's ambassador to the US plans to meet with President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. US and Russia account for 93 per cent of all nuclear warheads in the world as experts fear a new- larger arms race in case US and Russia fail to extend the nuclear deal11.

Comments. It is vital that New START treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms is renewed for next five years without any negotiations as per the provision of the treaty which is expiring on 05 Feb 21.

Former President Trump sought China’s participation in the treaty which has emerged as the major nuclear power holding all versions of nuclear weapons with ranges covering the entire world. China however, was no willing. It argued that it is holding far less nuclear weapons than Russia and America therefore, it won’t join any negotiations. Considering that threshold for renewal was fast approaching Trump even tried for a shorter period of extension in his final months of his presidency which was not acceptable to Russia. To get China in the deal, US and Russia should further reduce their holdings of nuclear weapons matching China so that the holdings of nuclear weapons all across is reduced.

Tehran Refuses to Return to Full Compliance with 2015 Nuclear Agreement. Iran's parliament speaker says the country has produced 17 kilograms of 20 percent- enriched uranium within a month, as Iranian officials continue to dismiss international calls for Tehran to return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement.12

Comments. The administration of President Biden is willing to return to 2015 nuclear deal provided Iran complies with it fully. It also appears that Iran which is badly hurt by the economic sanctions by US would eventually join the deal but, it is playing a hard ball to avoid any new restrictions in the deal as is rumoured that Europe and America may demand inclusion of curbs on the ballistic missile programme of Iran.

10https://www.mea.gov.in/press- releases.htm?dtl/33409/Indias_view_on_the_Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons 11https://www.wionews.com/world/biden-proposes-to-renew-new-start-nuclear-treaty-between- us-and-russia-358434 12https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2021/iran-210128- rferl01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e2984%2ejv0ao04x0w%2e2rby 22

SPACE Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

The World’s Biggest Drone, Ravn X Will Send Satellites into Space on a Rocket. Aevum believes its Ravn X drone which is said to be the world’s biggest drone, is now capable of sending low-Earth orbit satellites into space, and it will cost less than it takes companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX to do so.

The drone is said to be 80 feet long and 18 feet tall and is said to be driven by Aevum’s proprietary software. The Ravn X is part of Aevum’s autonomous aerial launch system which would involve a fully autonomous, self-flying, self-operating, and self-managing intelligent system.

According to a report by CNET, the drone would fly itself to a specified altitude, where it would launch a rocket that would be carrying a payload of small satellites. Aevum spoke about the launch system being 70 percent reusable and the company’s CEO Jay Skylus is hoping to get that close to 100 percent.13

Comments. As per the news report US based company Aevum has already secured contract from the US space force to launch 360 satellites in low earth orbit in 2021. This development is revolutionary in nature and presents a cost-effective method to deploy small task-oriented satellites at the low earth orbit at a time of own choosing. The low response time will prove to be very useful in defence applications.

13https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/the-worlds-biggest-drone-ravn-x-will- send-satellites-into-space-on-a-rocket-7167688/