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US Report and Proposal Template FINAL REPORT Prepared For: New York City Economic Development Corporation 110 William St. New York, NY 10036 A Master Electrical Transmission Plan for New York City Prepared By: CRA International 50 Church St. Cambridge, MA 02138 Date: May 28, 2009 CRA Project No. D13536 D13536 May 28, 2009 CRA International DISCLAIMER This internal draft document is supplied for the purposes of facilitating discussions with NYCEDC. It is not a final work product, may not have been reviewed or data managed, and may have factual or other errors. It is therefore not to be further reproduced or distributed without express permission from CRA. Neither the author(s), nor CRA make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this document, or accept any liability for any errors or omissions, or for statements, opinions, information, or matters arising out of, contained in or derived from this document, or related communications, or for any actions taken on such a basis. CRA International and its authors make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this document and shall have, and accept, no liability for any statements, opinions, information or matters (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from this document or any omissions from this document, or any other written or oral communication transmitted or made available to any other party in relation to the subject matter of this document. PROJECT TEAM New York City Economic Development Corporation Thomas Simpson – Vice President, Project Manager ([email protected]) James Gallagher – Senior Vice President for Energy Policy ([email protected]) CRA International Christopher Russo – Principal, Project Manager ([email protected]) Scott Niemann – Principal Robert Stoddard – Vice President Bruce Tsuchida – Associate Principal Burns & Roe John Pouletsos – Director, Project Manager ([email protected]) Final Report Page i D13536 May 28, 2009 CRA International TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..............................................................................................11 1.1. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................11 1.2. OPTIONS EVALUATED ........................................................................................................12 1.3. SUMMARY OF RESULTS .....................................................................................................13 1.3.1. Economic Benefits and Costs ..........................................................................................13 1.3.2. Air Emissions Impact........................................................................................................18 1.4. KEY FINDINGS...................................................................................................................20 1.4.1. Recommendations ...........................................................................................................22 1.4.2. Implications for policymakers ...........................................................................................26 2. PROJECT OVERVIEW.................................................................................................31 2.1. METHODOLOGY & ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................... 31 2.1.1. Initial Phase – Assumptions and methodology development ...........................................31 2.1.2. Phase One – Single-year production cost analyses.........................................................33 2.1.3. Phase Two – Long term reference case analyses............................................................34 2.1.4. Phase Three – Sensitivity analyses..................................................................................35 2.1.5. Project development & financing strategies .....................................................................36 2.2. ANALYSIS TOOLS & METHODOLOGY ................................................................................... 36 2.2.1. Security-constrained production cost analysis .................................................................36 2.2.2. Long-term regional analysis .............................................................................................37 3. PROJECT ANALYSES .................................................................................................39 3.1. ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK .....................................................................................................39 3.1.1. Benefits types and persistence ........................................................................................39 3.1.2. Definition of evaluation metrics.........................................................................................42 3.1.3. Cost allocation approach..................................................................................................44 3.2. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .....................................................................................................47 3.2.1. Reference Case Energy Market Summary.......................................................................47 3.2.2. Reference Case Capacity Market Summary ....................................................................55 3.2.3. Reference Case Air Emissions Summary ........................................................................61 3.2.4. Project Cost Estimate Methodology .................................................................................64 3.2.5. Reference Case Long-term Analysis Summary................................................................66 3.2.6. Sensitivity Analysis Summary ..........................................................................................71 3.3. INDIVIDUAL PROJECT ANALYSES ........................................................................................ 76 Final Report Page ii D13536 May 28, 2009 CRA International 3.3.1. CCGT ...............................................................................................................................76 3.3.2. Hudson.............................................................................................................................83 3.3.3. Leeds .............................................................................................................................100 3.3.4. NYRI...............................................................................................................................111 3.3.5. Dunwoodie Interface Upgrades......................................................................................121 3.3.6. Wind ...............................................................................................................................123 3.3.7. SCGT .............................................................................................................................130 3.3.8. ConEdison-LIPA.............................................................................................................132 4. CONCLUSION & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...............................................................134 APPENDIX A: DETAILED COST ESTIMATE DATA .........................................................136 A.1 INTEREST DURING CONSTRUCTION WORKSHEET ..............................................................136 A.2 DUNWOODIE UPGRADE....................................................................................................138 A.3 NYRI.............................................................................................................................. 145 A.4 WIND..............................................................................................................................161 A.5 HUDSON .........................................................................................................................170 A.6 COMBINED CYCLE ...........................................................................................................186 A.7 LEEDS ............................................................................................................................202 APPENDIX B: THE NEW YORK STATE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ............................... 208 APPENDIX C: MODEL DESCRIPTIONS...........................................................................209 C.1 GE MAPS MODEL DESCRIPTION .....................................................................................209 C.1.1 Outputs...........................................................................................................................209 C.1.2 System Representation in GE-MAPS.............................................................................210 C.1.3 Market Assumptions.......................................................................................................210 C.1.4 Demand Assumptions ....................................................................................................211 C.1.5 Supply Assumptions.......................................................................................................211 C.1.6 Databases ......................................................................................................................213 C.2 NEEM & MRN MODEL DESCRIPTION...............................................................................214 C.2.1 Model Outputs................................................................................................................215
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