Long-term trends in road safety in Finland - evaluation of scenarios towards 2020 and beyond

Markus Pöllänen Lecturer Tampere University of Technology, Transport Research Centre Verne, Finland

Nordic Traffic Safety Forum 2018 Aland 13.9.2018 Background

• In early 2000s, the presenter was involved in analysing the future outlook and depicting road safety scenarios towards year 2020 in Finland. • This study was published by the Finnish road administration* in 2004. • As we are approaching year 2020, it is interesting to examine to what extent the development has been as projected and to what extent the development has differed from the projections and forecasts made about 15 years back.

* Publication in Finnish: Pöllänen, M. & Mäntynen, J. Tieliikenteen turvallisuus vuoteen 2020. Tiehallinnon selvityksiä 10/2004, 110 p. Description of the project in 2003- 2004 • The goal was to produce futures oriented information to support strategic planning • Identifying changes in the operational environment of road safety towards year 2020 – Which factors have influenced the historical development? – What are the trends in road fatalities? • Analysing the entity, creating alternative futures images and scenarios • To support the future outlook, historical development was analysed for the past 40 years (about 1970-2002) Outline

• Long-term trends in road fatalities in Finland from 1970 • Issues affecting the development of road safety • Trend-based scenarios for 2002 - 2020 – Trends among different age groups – Trends among women and men – Trends among different road user groups • Update: Trend-based forecast for 2018 - 2030 • Discussion and conclusions Road fatalities 1970-2002 in Finland and some key interventions 1400 General 80 km/h speed limit 1973/1974 1200 Obligatory safety belt usage, first in front seat in passenger cars 1.7.1975

Blood alcohol content act 1.4.1977 1000 Obligatory helmet usage for motor cyclists 1.6.1977 800 Winter tyre act 1.12.1978

600

400 Removing black spots on road network 1973: President’s new year’s Winter time speed limits 1.11.1987 200 speech and I parliamentary 1991: II parliamentary transport committee transport committee 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Safety Council IRTAD Annual report 2009 Issues affecting the development of road safety • Demographical development: urbanisation, aging population • Economical development: GDP growth, which affects e.g. transport volume and new vehicle registration • Transport costs: differences in costs in different modes, fuel prices • Transport infrastructure: improving road network, transition from building new to maintaining existing roads • Transport policy: allocating funds, prioritising between different aims (e.g. travel time vs. safety) and transport modes • Vehicle fleet: strong growth in many vehicle types, improvements in vehicles’ passive and active safety • Transport demand: continuous growth in transport volume (except of some financial crises) • Other issues: e.g. improvement in medical sciences and first aid Population age structure, Road users / Car ownership driving drivers licences, migration Travel behaviour Costs Car purchase and usage Traffic Traffic environment behaviour Car fleet Management Quantity and and regulation Mileage composition; of the transport Volume, quality age, size, safety equipment system

Crash risk Amount of crashes

Adapted from Häkkinen ja Luoma (1990) Strong growth in … Separate pedestrian and cycle ways along Vehicle mileage 1977 - 2002 35 000 national roads 1981 - 2003 5 000

30 000 4 500 4 000 25 000 3 500 3 000 20 000

Local roads km

km 2 500 - 15 000 Other roads 2 000

vehicle 1 500 Main roads, class II 10 000 1 000 Main roads, class I million 500 5 000 0 0

Vehicle fleet 1950 - 2002 65+ year old population 1960 - 2020 1 400 000 3 500 000 1 200 000 3 000 000 Tractors 1 000 000 2 500 000 Mopeds 85+ 2 000 000 Motorcycles 800 000 75-84 Special vehicles 1 500 000 Busses 600 000 65-74 Trucks 1 000 000 inhabitants 400 000 Vans 500 000 Passenger cars number of vehicles of number 200 000 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Administration Analysing the trends in road fatalities • The long-term trends in road fatalities per population (i.e. per 100 000 inhabitants) are analysed – among different age groups – among men and women – among different road user groups • The extrapolated development 2003 - 2020, based on trends 1970-2002, is compared with the actual development (figures marked next as 2010real and 2017real) Trends among different age groups

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010forecast 2010real 2017forecast 2017real

45,0

40,0

35,0

30,0

25,0

20,0

15,0

10,0

5,0

road fatalities100 / 000inhabitants 0,0 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Total

Data: Statistics Finland Forecasts based on trends in 1970-2002 Trends among women and men

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010forecast 2010real 2017forecast 2017real

40,0

35,0

30,0

25,0

20,0

15,0

10,0

raod raod fatalities 100 / inhabitants 000 5,0

0,0 Men Women

Data: Statistics Finland Forecasts based on trends in 1970-2002 Trends among different road user groups

100,0 % 90,0 % 80,0 % 70,0 % Other vehicles 60,0 % Passenger cars 50,0 % Tractors 40,0 % Motorcyclists Moped riders 30,0 % Cyclists

share road of fatalities 20,0 % Pedestians 10,0 %

0,0 %

1984 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Data: Statistics Finland Road fatalities in different road user groups, 2003-2020 extrapolated based on historical trends in 1970-2002

1200 historical development extrapolated 1000 Other vehicles Passenger cars 800 Tractors 600 Motorcyclists Moped riders 400 Cyclists Pedestians

road road fatalities 200

0

Data on road fatalities 1970-2002 from Statistics Finland. Projection is based on trend extrapolation (road fatalities per population in each road user group) and population forecast 2003-2020 by Statistics Finland. Road fatalities in different road user groups - actual development 2003-2017 compared with the extrapolation

1200 1200

1000 1000 Other vehicles Passenger cars 800 800 Tractors

600 600 Motorcyclists Moped riders 400 400 Cyclists Pedestians

road road fatalities 200 200

0 0

Pedestrians Cyclists Moped riders Motor cyclists Tractors Passenger cars Data on road fatalities 1970-2017 from Statistics Finland. Projection is based on trend extrapolation (road fatalities Other vehicles per population in each road user group) and population forecast 2003-2020 by Statistics Finland. The trend of road fatalities per vehicle mileage 1970-2002 • 0,100…

0,090 km

- 0,080 0,070 0,060 0,050 0,040 0,030 0,020 0,010

Road Road vehiclefatalitiesmillion / 0,000

Data on road fatalities from Statistics Finland. Data on vehicle mileage on national roads from Finnish Road Administration. Trend-based scenarios for 2002-2020, actual development 2002-2017 and road safety aim (-50% 2010-2020) 450 400 road user groups

350 age groups 300 genders 250 218 risk forecast * 200 mileage forecast risk forecast * 150

136 constant mileage road road fatalities 100 actual development 50 aim 0

Data on actual development of road fatalities 2002-2017 from Statistics Finland Actual vs. forecasted development Vehicle mileage, national road network (million vehicle-km) 39000 38000 37000 36000 35000 34000 33000 32000 31000 30000 29000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

forecast actual mileage Risk (road fatalities per million vehicle-km) 0,014

0,012

0,010

0,008

0,006

0,004

0,002

0,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

extrapolated actual Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Road Administration, Finnish Transport Agency Actual vs. forecasted development

Population development 5600 000

5500 000

5400 000

5300 000

5200 000 In 2017, the population was 206 000 persons (+3.9%) greater than forecasted. 5100 000 The greatest difference was in the amount of under 15 years old. 5000 000

Forecast Actual development

Data: Statistics Finland Trend-based forecast 2018-2030 Annual mileage change: ca +1.4% 400 Annual risk change: -4.5%

350 Annual road fatalities change: ca -3.1% About 150 road fatalities in 2030? 300

250

200

road fatalitiesroad 150

100 historical development forecast 50

0

Risk (fatalities per mileage) of 2003-2017 extrapolated to years 2018-2030 * forecast of vehicle mileage 2018-2030

Data: Statistics Finland, Finnish Transport Agency Please note!

• We haven’t got, and in future will not get the positive trends for free • To reach the extrapolated development, the development should be similar and implemented measures of the future should have similar effect as those of the past • There is no automatic mechanism that produces road safety improvement Discussion

• Even though the actual development of population or vehicle mileage has not been as forecasted, the difference is not big, and the trend extrapolations from early 2000s have been surprisingly similar to the actual development in road fatalities • There is great safety potential in affecting transport mileage and its expected growth as well as the crash risk • Additionally, the seriousness of crashes can be affected (e.g. eCall, medical services, use of safety equipment) • How will automation affect road safety in future? • Quantitative trends are only one part of the big picture, also the qualitative trends and aspects should be considered Conclusions

• Higher risk still among men, the young (15-24 year old), and seniors, but the risks have continued to decrease • Road fatalities continue to be especially in passenger cars (57%) • In Finland, Vision Zero in road safety is still very far away, but the trends are pointing to the right direction • To reach the road safety target (-50% road fatalities in a decade, also during 2020-2030), the is a need for further commitment in road safety measures and strict actions