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Download The Conservation planning at multiple scales: A density model and spatial planning tool to facilitate the conservation of Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and the Northern Andes by Nina Morrell B.Sc., The University of British Columbia, 2014 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Forestry) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) October 2018 © Nina Morrell, 2018 i The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, a thesis/dissertation entitled: Conservation planning at multiple scales: A density model and spatial planning tool to facilitate the conservation of Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) and the Northern Andes submitted by Nina Morrell in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Forestry Examining Committee: Dr. Peter Arcese, Forestry Supervisor Dr. Cole Burton, Forestry Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Richard Schuster, Liber Ero Fellow, Carleton University Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Angela Fuller, Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract Global declines in large-bodied terrestrial vertebrates have been widely linked to human disturbance and habitat loss. Consequently, identifying remaining opportunities to conserve habitats likely to maximize the persistence of such species remains a key challenge to conserving biological diversity globally. Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) are among the least-known wide- ranging large mammal species, but occupy montane ecoregions throughout the Northern Andes, a global biodiversity hotspot. Recent evidence suggests the Andean bear range includes forests at the fringe of human development, including the equatorial dry forests of Peru. If Andean bears are to be conserved in this region, a better understanding of their potential densities, use of habitats, and response to human influence is required. This thesis used spatial density models, existing field and remote-sensed data, and spatial planning tools to relate species detection to environmental variables and optimize conservation plans for Andean bears and the Northern Andes. I assessed habitat use by Andean bears in equatorial dry forest at a local scale in Northwestern Peru, using camera-trap data to construct spatially-explicit capture recapture (SCR) models. I compared models for resources thought to affect bear density by their association with threats and food availability; including elevation, slope, forest cover, and proximity to roads. I found that proximity to roads reduced the density of Andean bears, and the influence of factors other than roads varied seasonally. I identified potential areas of equatorial dry forest outside the IUCN range that could support Andean bears, but noted that unmapped roads and smallholder agriculture affected the reliability of results. I also employed systematic prioritization methods to identify configurations of land parcels that maximized biodiversity features at the least cost. I found that the Andean bear range performed better at capturing species richness than a random control feature. I also found that planning for multiple goals in a systematic planning framework greatly increased the area efficiency of the solutions, compared with planning for biodiversity features separately. Overall, this thesis highlights the importance of working at multiple scales for efficient conservation planning, and provides a common framework for conducting such analyses in the future. Resumen Los declives poblacionales globales de vertebrados terrestres mayores han sido ampliamente asociados a perturbaciones humanas, así como a la pérdida de hábitats. Como consecuencia, la identificación de oportunidades para conservar hábitats cuya protección maximice la probabilidad de sostener a sus poblaciones en el tiempo, es probable que siga siendo uno de los principales retos globales para la conservación de la biodiversidad. El oso andino (Tremarctos ornatus) es una de las especies de mamíferos mayores de amplio rango menos iii conocidas a nivel global. Sin embargo, esta especie ocupa un rango diverso de bosques a lo largo de los Andes norte, un hotspot de biodiversidad global. Evidencia reciente sugiere que el rango de distribución del oso andino incluye áreas de bosque ubicados al margen de asentamientos humanos, como en el bosque seco ecuatorial de Perú. Por lo tanto, la conservación del oso andino requiere un mejor entendimiento de la densidad poblacional, el uso de hábitat y la respuesta de estas poblaciones a la influencia humana en esta región. Esta tesis uso modelos de distribución espacial (MDEs), datos de campo y detección remota, así como herramientas de planificación espacial, para optimizar los planes de conservación del oso andino y de los Andes norte. Evalué el uso de hábitat del oso andino en el bosque seco ecuatorial a escala local en Perú, utilizando cámaras trampa para construir modelos espacialmente explícitos de captura y recaptura (MEECRs). Comparé modelos alternativos para recursos que podrían afectar la densidad del oso andino por su asociación con amenazas conocidas y disponibilidad de alimento; incluyendo también parámetros como: elevación, pendiente, cobertura forestal, y cercanía a carreteras. Encontré que la cercanía a carreteras es un factor que reduce la densidad de osos, y que la influencia de los otros factores varia de manera estacional. Luego expandí los resultados locales para evaluar el potencial del bosque seco ecuatorial para sostener poblaciones de oso andino. Mis resultados identificaron paisajes con alto potencial para sostener altas densidades de osos andinos que habitan fuera del rango establecido por la IUCN. Adicionalmente, empleé métodos de priorización sistemática para explorar como usos alternativos de la tierra podrían incrementar la integridad y persistencia de los objetos de conservación y de las cuencas hidrográficas en los Andes norte. Encontré que el uso de la distribución planteada por el IUCN para esta especie era capaz de capturar mejor la riqueza de especies de la zona, que distribuciones uniformes aleatorias sobre el mismo espacio. Encontré también que la planificación simultánea de múltiples objetivos, en el marco de la planificación sistemática para la conservación, incrementó altamente la eficiencia de cobertura (área) de las soluciones, en comparación con ejercicios planificación cuya aproximación es la evaluación de múltiples objetivos de conservación por separado. En síntesis, esta tesis resalta la importancia de trabajar en múltiples escalas para mejorar la eficiencia de la planificación para la conservación, y presenta un marco metodológico para desarrollar dicho proceso en el futuro. iv Lay summary Large-bodied vertebrate species are in global decline, largely due to habitat loss. With many countries committed to meeting goals for conservation under a limited budget, conservation has largely become a task of selecting the best available habitat at the least cost. In the Northern Andes, a global biodiversity hotspot, a rapid shift to human land use has put many species and ecosystems at risk. The Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is a focal species for conservation in the Northern Andes and one of the least understood large carnivore species. This work i) evaluates the associations that Andean bears have with habitat in the equatorial dry forests of Peru; and ii) evaluates conservation plans that use Andean bears as a focal species. This thesis contributes to a growing body of knowledge supporting the conservation of Andean bears, and aims to provide a common framework for land managers to conduct future analyses. Resumen para legos Las poblaciones de vertebrados mayores a nivel global se encuentran en declive, principalmente debido a la pérdida del hábitat que ocupan. Con muchos países comprometidos con objetivos de conservación, pero con presupuestos limitados para dicha tarea, el problema de la conservación se convierte en un triaje: seleccionar el mejor hábitat disponible cuya protección genere el menor costo. En los Andes norte, un hotspot de biodiversidad mundial, la rápida transición hacia un uso del territorio dominado por los humanos a puesto en riesgo a muchas especies y ecosistemas. El oso andino (Tremarctos ornatus) es una especie objetivo para la conservación en los Andes norte, y una de las especies de carnívoros menos comprendidas de la tierra. Este trabajo: (i) evalúa la asociación del oso andino con variables de hábitat de fácil medición en el bosque seco ecuatorial de Perú; y (ii) evalúa la utilidad del oso andino como especie objetivo para acciones de conservación. Esta investigación contribuye a incrementar el conocimiento a favor de la conservación de los osos andinos, y busca generar un marco común para que los administradores de territorio puedan realizar evaluaciones futuras. v Preface This thesis uses 4 years out of a much larger dataset of camera trap data collected by field teams in the mountains around Rio La Leche, Lambayeque region, Peru. All field work was conducted by the dedicated staff and volunteers at the Spectacled Bear Conservation Society (SBC) under the supervision of Robyn Appleton. Drs. Peter Arcese, Richard Schuster, and Joanna Burgar advised my statistical analysis. My supervisor Dr. Peter Arcese provided great ideas, advice, and helpful comments on my thesis. My committee members, Drs. Cole Burton,
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