DOCSLIB.ORG

World Bank Document

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
World Bank Document POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 2112 Public Disclosure Authorized IndustrialPolicy after BeforeEastAsia's hnancial meltdown in 1997, many the East Asian Crisis believed that the entrepreneurial state Fromc"Outward Orientation" contributed to the East Asian Public Disclosure Authorized From "Outward Orientation "miracle"by accelerajrng to New Internal Capabilities? industrial deveiopment in a "market-friendly" way. The Ashoka Mody now-evoiving internaLional consensuson induseriSaUolicy emphasizes a hands-off approach, with acrivust government playing a reduced role and competition Public Disclosure Authorized policy playing an important role. But imoDlerernincj such a policy wUil require sophisticated nevt' skills in public administration. Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank Development Prospects Group May 1999 POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 21 12 Summary findings Before East Asia's financial meltdown in the second half But policies emphasizing greater competition and a of 1997, there appeared to be prospects for an uneasy level playing field - implicitly thought to require less consensus on the East Asian "miracle," a consensus that government action - may require more government recognized the role of the entrepreneurial state in expertise, not less. If implementing a 10 percent export accelerating industrial development but emphasized the subsidy is difficult, consider the difficulty of determining "market-friendly" nature of the state's interventions. whether a firm is exercising market power or restraining After the financial crisis, East Asian policies and trade. So the prospect of governments stepping back may institutions are once again under scrutiny -for their be unrealistic. failures rather than for their miracles. The new consensus also proposes "deep integration," Mody finds that the prospects for a consensus that or the adoption of uniform standards in such areas as incorporated the East Asian experience were ill founded. competition policy and labor and environmental East Asian policymakers ernphasized growsth through standards. quantitative targets; price signals played a significant but For East Asia, the shift to the international consensus secondary role. may be appropriate because government-driven growth Mody illustrates these propositions by examining trade has declined in intellectual respectability. Also, it may be policy, industrial conglomerates, and the provision of time to consolidate the gains from the rapid trade-led physical infrastructure. growth by focusing on creating a stronger incentive The evolving international consensus on industrial structure for efficiently using resources. policy, which predates the Asian crisis, emphasizes a The current consensus is based on strong priors rather hands-off approach in which an activist government than on solid empirical evidence, however, and the plays a reduced role and competition policy plays an dangers of international uniformity in policy are evident. important role. This paper - a product of the Development Prospects Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze trends in the global economy. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Sydnelia Kpundeh, room MC6-762, telephone 202-473-9591, fax 202-522-2578, Internet address [email protected]. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/ html/dec/Publications,'Workpapers/home.html. The author may be contacted at amody@ worldbank.org. May 1999. (33 pages) The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmnentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findinigsout quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the namnesof the authors and should be cited accordinzgly.The finzdings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. 'They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center Industrialpolicy after the East Asian crisis: From"outward-orientation" to new internal capabilities? Ashoka Mody The World Bank [email protected] This paper was initially written while I was a Visiting Professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. I am gratefullto colleagues at the Wharton School's Department of Public Policy and Management, to my students in an "International Industrialization Strategies" class taught during Fall 1997, and especially to Brett Grehan who provided extensive written comments. For their comments, I also thank Alice Amsden, Sanjaya Lall, Moshe Syrquin, Judith Tendler, Larry Westphal, and seminar participants at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Introduction Just when views on East Asia's economic"miracle" appeared to be converging,the East Asianschose once againto surprisethe world-this timeby spiralinginto a financial meltdown. The publicationofthe World Bank's (1993) EastAsianMiracle had added respectabilityto East Asianindustrial policy. Even criticsof the "Miracle"study welcomed the belated and qualifiedrecognition of the role that the state had playedin fosteringindustrial growth.' Is there reason now to reassessone more time, the lessonsfrom East Asia? I reviewthree sets of East Asianpolicies: those relatedto trade, corporate organization,and physicalinfrastructure provision. East Asianpolicymakers used these complementarypolicy instruments primarily to stimulateoutput growth or relievebottlenecks. The East Asian experiencecan be characterizeda "big industrialpush" temperedby price and internationalmarket disciplineto limitegregious errors. This interpretationis consistentwith estimatesof modest productivitygrowth in the region.East Asiangrowth dependedon the virtuous reinforcementof policymeasures and businessbehavior that alwayshad the potential to unravel,although the timingwas unpredictable. Thus, despiteEast Asia's evidentsuccess in achievinghigh rates of investmentand output growth, and notwithstandingthe "Miracle"study, I concludethat East Asia offers few lessons to guide industrialpolicy in the near future-either for itself or for other countries. This viewhad begun to evolveprior to and independentof the recent crisisbut has been reinforcedby the financialdistress in the East Asianregion. Governmentinterventions to stimulateindustrial growth will not disappearbut the emphasishas shiftedtowards measures 1 For example,Rodrik (1997)writes: "Whateverone may say aboutthe WorldBank (1993)East Asian Miracle report, this study has made it very difficultfor any reasonableperson to argue that there was little government interventionin East Asian countries,or that these countriesgrew so fast despitetheir government's interventions,-argumentsthat one used to hear not infrequently." 2 that deal directlywith increasingefficiency (e.g., competitionpolicy and definitionand protection of propertyrights). Selectiveindustrial targeting may be dated, but surelythe importanceof "outward- orientation"remains undiminished? 2 Thougha hallowedtenet in the explanationof the East Asian miracle,the term "outward-orientation"tends to be a fluid one (absenceof bias against exports, activepromotion of exports, and low trade barriers). Whendefined as low trade barriers to increasean economy'sallocative efficiency, outward orientationhas been drivenby an intellectualtradition beyond East Asia. East Asian economiesare often thought to validate the benefitsof"openness," but their commitmentto low tariff and non-tariffbarriers has been less than exemplary. Also, aggressiveexport promotion from East Asia has been viewedwith concernby the internationalcommunity-countervailing duties, antidumping measures, "voluntary"export restraints are instrumentsdesigned to limitthe advantagesfrom government support of exporters.3 East Asia's corporatestructure and governancemechanisms-significant contributors to rapid output growth in the past-are under especiallystrong criticismin the wake of the ongoingfinancial crisis. Close relationshipsbetween government and business,heavy reliance on bank debt, and conglomeratefirms combined to foster corporateinvestment in highly efficientfactories, new product development,and greater presencein internationalmarkets. That systemis under criticismfor "cronyism"and wastefulinvestments in real estate and 2 The IMF (1997)in referring to high East Asian growthrates in the first half of the 1990s-high even by the standardsof that region-attributes them principallyto "outward-orientation." 3 Since the onset of the recent crisis, falling East Asian exportrevenues (in dollars)despite rising export volumesare also a reminderthat manufacturedexports, like primary comunodities,can experiencesharp decline in prices,contributing to an adverse shift in terms of trade. The competitivecurrency devaluations in the region revivethe concernsof "exportpessimists" of yesteryearsthat the world market does not have the depth to absorblarge volumesof developingcountry exports without a significantprice decrease. Raphie Kaplinsky(1998) showsmost developingeconomies have experiencedsteadily declining terms of trade especiallysince the emergenceof China as a significantexporter of manufacturedgoods. 3 currencyspeculation. 4 The knife-edgequality of the corporategovernance mechanism in East Asia was evidentto observers(Campos and Root 1996)and reformattempts were
Load more

Recommended publications
  • 2013 Annual Report
    Annual Report www.bruegel.org ABOUT BRUEGEL 2 BRUEGEL ANNUAL REPORT 2013 CONTENTS CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE P.5 DIRECTOR’S INTRODUCTION P.6 ABOUT BRUEGEL P.7 BRUEGEL AT A GLANCE P.8 RESEARCH STRATEGY P.12 EVALUATION P.13 REVIEW TASK FORCE P.14 TALENTS P.16 STAFF LIST P.17 A NEW DIRECTOR P.19 RESIDENT SCHOLARS P.20 A GLOBAL NETWORK OF TALENTS P.22 IDEAS P.24 THE YEAR IN REVIEW P.25 OUTREACH IN 2013 P.32 GOVERNANCE P.34 GOVERNANCE MODEL P.35 A NEW BOARD P.36 MEMBERS P.37 VALUES P.38 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS P.39 AUDITOR’S REPORT P.43 ANNEX P.45 PUBLICATIONS IN 2013 P.46 BRUEGEL BLOG IN 2013 P.48 EVENTS IN 2013 P.49 PARLIAMENTARY TESTIMONIES IN 2013 P.52 RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS (2010-2013) P.53 BRUEGEL ANNUAL REPORT 2013 CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE “A year marked by novelty, risk, challenges and decision making.” In many respects, 2013 was a turning point for Bruegel – a year from policy impact to financial efficiency. Both groups commended marked by novelty, risk, challenges and decision making. I am proud the organization’s independence and credibility, while also warning to report that, in this process, the organisation not only proved of challenges ahead and showing the way towards continued its solidity and its worth but also explored new areas for shaping improvement. Their conclusions inform Bruegel’s research strategy, economic policy. infused with fresh thinking for the next three years. Since it started operations nine years ago, Bruegel established three- Nine years into the job of improving the quality of economic policy, year cycles as relevant timeframes to Bruegel thus is able to both look back and plan and assess its work.
    [Show full text]
  • Implications for Financing and Evaluation Proceedings from a World Bank Workshop
    GlobalPublicPolicies_0515.qxd 8/15/01 9:21 AM Page i WORLD BANK OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT Global Public Policies and Programs: Implications for Financing and Evaluation Proceedings from a World Bank Workshop Edited by Christopher D. Gerrard Marco Ferroni Ashoka Mody 2001 The World Bank www.worldbank.org/html.oed Washington, D.C. GlobalPublicPolicies_0515.qxd 8/15/01 9:21 AM Page ii Copyright ©2001 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing June 2001 1 2 3 4 04 03 02 01 The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or its member governments. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this pub- lication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, col- ors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accept- ance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. Permission to photocopy items for internal or personal use, for the internal or personal use of specific clients, or for educational classroom use is granted by the World Bank, provided that the appropriate fee is paid directly to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, U.S.A., telephone 978–750–8400, fax 978–750–4470.
    [Show full text]
  • Ashoka Mody Page 1
    Ashoka Mody Page 1 Ashoka Mody 6816 Millwood Road Woodrow Wilson School of Public Bethesda, MD 20817 and International Affairs (301) 263 0293 Princeton University [email protected] Princeton, NJ 08544 (609) 258 4768 E-mail: [email protected] http://scholar.princeton.edu/amody Ashoka Mody is Charles and Marie Robertson Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments. He was responsible for the IMF’s Article IV consultations with Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, and Hungary, and also for the design of Ireland's financial rescue program. Earlier, at the World Bank, his management positions included those in Project Finance and Guarantees and in the Prospects Group, where he coordinated and was principal author of the Global Development Finance Report of 2001. He has advised governments worldwide on developmental and financial projects and policies, while writing extensively for policy and scholarly audiences. Mody has been a Member of Staff at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories, a Research Associate at the Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, and a Visiting Professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is a non-resident fellow at the Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt and the Center for Global Government, Washington D.C. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Boston University. His academic research, motivated by and drawing closely on his policy responsibilities, has focused on international finance and political economy. His recent research has been on the European Union, especially the euro zone crisis.
    [Show full text]
  • Page 2 Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction Macroeconomic Policies and Poverty Reduction goes beyond the traditional literature on poverty, dealing with this critical topic in a technically sophisticated, yet accessible, manner. Recognizing that economic growth is crucial for poverty reduction, this book nevertheless emphasizes the importance of particular country circumstances in mediating the relationship between growth and poverty reduction. The innovative essays use country case studies to analyze how the political economy of budgetary decisions, financial reforms, and trade liberalization, and periods of crises affect inequality and poverty. Fresh perspective on the international context is offered through studies of odious debt as an additional rationale for debt relief and uncoordinated and volatile aid flows. Contributors include Anne Krueger, Nicholas Stern, Orazio Attanasio, François Bourguignon, Ravi Kanbur, Michael Kremer, Martin Ravallion, and Robert Townsend. Ashoka Mody and Catherine Pattillo are at the International Monetary Fund. Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy 1 Interest Rates and Budget Deficits A study of the advanced economies Kanhaya L.Gupta and Bakhtiar Moazzami 2 World Trade after the Uruguay Round Prospects and policy options for the twenty-first century Edited by Harald Sander and András Inotai 3 The Flow Analysis of Labour Markets Edited by Ronald Schettkat 4 Inflation and Unemployment Contributions to a new macroeconomic approach Edited by Alvaro Cencini and Mauro Baranzini 5 Macroeconomic Dimensions
    [Show full text]
  • Placement Guide 2019-21: M.A. in Applied Economics
    Centre for Development Studies PLACEMENT GUIDE (2019-21) M.A. in Applied Economics Affiliated to Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Contents Director & Program Coordinator's Messages 3-4 Why CDS? 5 About Us 6 Infrastructure 7-8 Events 9-10 Talks 11 Faculty 12-14 Visiting Professors / Fellows 15 Distinguished Alumni 16 Organizations that Alumni are associated with 17 Alumni Talk 18-19 About the Programme 20-22 Student Details 23-31 Contact Us 32 Director's Message The CDS started a new Master’s programme in Applied Economics during the academic year 2012-13. The programme is affiliated to Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and within a matter of seven years has found a place as one of the top Master’s level courses in Economics in the country. This is evidenced by the fact that the course has attracted considerable interest from very discerning graduates from some of the best universities in the country and that too in large numbers. Some of our alumni has secured places for pursuing Ph.D. research at some of the top universities in the world such as the University of Oxford, University of Chicago, State University of New York and University of Texas at Austin, Duke besides JNU itself and at the indian Instifute of management Calcutta. Further, some of the top consulting companies have been recruiting directly from this Centre year on year. Hitherto, the programme has graduated 139 students over 7 batches and the 8th batch is to graduate by the month of May 2021. The ongoing corona virus crisis has delayed our admission process for the 10th batch, but we hope to bring them aboard later this year.
    [Show full text]
  • Suman Bery Barry Bosworth Arvind Panagariya
    EDITED BY Suman Bery Barry Bosworth Arvind Panagariya NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH New Delhi BROOKINGS INSTITUTION Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2011 NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NCAER) AND BROOKINGS INSTITUTION First published in 2011 by SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd B1/I 1, Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044, India www.sagepub.in SAGE Publications Inc 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320, USA SAGE Publications Ltd 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP, United Kingdom SAGE Publications Asia-Pacifi c Pte Ltd 33 Pekin Street #02-01 Far East Square Singapore 048763 Library of Congress Serial Publication Data applied for ISBN: 978-81-321-0747-7 (PB) All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Published by Vivek Mehra for SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd, typeset in 10.5/13 pt Times by Star Compugraphics Private Limited, Delhi and printed at Chaman Enterprises, New Delhi. Editors’ Summary ix BARRY EICHENGREEN and POONAM GUPTA The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth? 1 Comments by Pronab Sen 38 General Discussion 39 ASHOKA MODY, ANUSHA NATH, and MICHAEL WALTON Sources of Corporate Profi ts in India: Business Dynamism or Advantages of Entrenchment? 43 Comments by Rajnish Mehra and Basanta Pradhan 85 General Discussion 91 RAM SINGH Determinants of Cost Overruns in Public Procurement of Infrastructure: Roads and Railways 97 Comments by Shashanka Bhide and Kenneth Kletzer 145 General Discussion 153 LORI BEAMAN, ESTHER DUFLO, ROHINI PANDE, and PETIA TOPALOVA Political Reservation and Substantive Representation: Evidence from Indian Village Councils 159 Comments by Devesh Kapur and Hari Nagarajan 192 General Discussion 198 T.
    [Show full text]
  • The Response Speed of the International Monetary Fund
    International Finance 16:2, 2013: pp. 189–211 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2013.12031.x The Response Speed of the International Monetary Fundà y z Ashoka Mody and Diego Saravia y z Woodrow Wilson School of Princeton University, and Central Bank of Chile, Research Department Abstract The more severe a financial crisis, the greater has been the likelihood of its management under an IMF‐supported programme and shorter the time from crisis onset to programme initiation. Political links to the United States have raised programme likelihood but have prompted faster response mainly for ‘major’ crises. Over time, the IMF’s response has not been robustly faster, but the time sensitivity to the more severe crises and those related to fixed exchange rate regimes did increase from the mid‐1980s. Similarly, democracies had earlier tended to stall programme initiation but have turned supportive of financial markets’ demands for quicker action. I. Introduction Much scholarly attention has focused on the factors that have led to the International Monetary Fund’s financial safety net for countries facing balance ÃWe are grateful to Carlos Alvarado, Quianru Song and Dante Poblete for superb research assistance and to Graham Bird, Jim Boughton, Russell Kincaid, Franziska Ohnsorge, Hui Tong, Dennis Quinn, and Felipe Zurita for valuable feedback. Two anonymous referees and the editor provided constructive comments. Saravia also acknowledges financial support from DIPUC No. 282150781. The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF’s management or Board of Directors. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 190 Ashoka Mody and Diego Saravia of payments stress.
    [Show full text]
  • Contributors, Asia Economic Policy Conference
    379 Contributors Guillermo Calvo, Professor Columbia University Guillermo Calvo is Professor of Economics, International and Public Affairs, and Director of the Program in Economic Policy Management at Columbia Uni- versity since January 2007, and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is the former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, 2001–06; President of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, LACEA, 2000–01; and President of the International Economic Association, IEA, 2005–08. His honors include the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics in 2000, LACEA 2006 Carlos Diaz-Alejandro Prize, Doctor Honoris Causa Di Tella University (Argentina), and Fellow of the Econometric Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the National Acad- emy of Economic Sciences (Argentina). Mr. Calvo’s main area of expertise is macroeconomics of emerging market and transition economies. His recent work has dealt extensively with capital flows and balance-of-payments crises in emerging market economies. He has published several books and more than 100 articles in leading economic jour- nals, and delivered the 2005 Frank D. Graham Memorial Lecture at Princeton University and the 2012 Ohlin Lectures at Stockholm School of Economics. His latest book is Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Pol­ icy? (MIT Press, 2005). Gerard Caprio, Jr., Professor Williams College Gerard Caprio, Jr., is the William Brough Professor of Economics and Chair of the Center for Development Economics at Williams College. Previously he was the Director for Policy in the World Bank’s Financial Sector Vice Presidency and head of the World Bank’s financial sector research group.
    [Show full text]
  • The Eurozone Crisis: Was the Euro Itself a Primary Cause?
    THE EUROZONE CRISIS: WAS THE EURO ITSELF A PRIMARY CAUSE? Compiled by Diarmuid O’Flynn #BallyheaSaysKnow i 1 Table of Contents 1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 THE EUROZONE CRISIS – WAS THE EURO ITSELF A PRIMARY CAUSE? ............................. 1 1.1.1 CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY (cep) ...................................................................... 1 1.1.2 WALL STREET ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.3 NEOLIBERALISM ........................................................................................................ 2 1.1.4 RATINGS AGENCIES, FINANCIAL MARKETS ............................................................... 2 2 CHAPTER 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 4 2.1 THE EURO – WOLF IN SHEEP’S CLOTHING ........................................................................ 4 2.2 EXPERT OPINION ............................................................................................................... 4 2.3 DESIGN .............................................................................................................................. 4 2.4 EU RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS ............................................................................................ 5 2.5 BALLYHEA SAYS KNOW ....................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Managing Volatility and Crises Overview ______
    Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide Overview* Abstract This overview introduces and summarizes the findings of a practical volume on managing volatility and crises. The interest in these topics stems from the growing recognition that non-linearities tend to magnify the impact of economic volatility, leading to large output and economic growth costs, especially in poor countries. In these circumstances, good times do not offset the negative impact of bad times, leading to permanent negative effects. Such asymmetry is often reinforced by incomplete markets, sovereign risk, divisive politics, inefficient taxation, procyclical fiscal policy and weak financial market institutions – factors that are more problematic in developing countries. The same fundamental phenomena that make it difficult to cope with volatility also drive crises. Hence, the volume also focuses on the prevention and management of crises. It is a user-friendly compilation of empirical and policy results aimed at development policy practitioners divided into three modules: (i) the basics of volatility and its impact on growth and poverty; (ii) managing volatility along thematic lines, including financial sector and commodity price volatility; and (iii) management and prevention of macroeconomic crises, including a cross-country study, lessons from the debt defaults of the 1980s and 1990s and case studies on Argentina and Russia. Joshua Aizenman Brian Pinto Department of Economics, UCSC The World Bank 1156 High St. 1818 H Street, NW Santa Cruz, CA 95064 Washington, DC 20433 [email protected] [email protected] * This paper is the lead chapter of “Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide.” This volume is the outcome of a recent World Bank-financed study, and encompasses 11 chapters contributed by World Bank and academic economists.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded From
    Germany in an Interconnected World Economy EDITOR Ashoka Mody INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution © 2013 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data Joint Bank-Fund Library Germany in an interconnected world economy / editor, Ashoka Mody. – Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. p. : ill. ; cm. Includes bibliographical references. 1. Germany – Economic conditions. 2. Economic development – Germany. 3. Germany – Foreign economic relations. 4. Financial crises – Germany. 5. Labor market – Germany. I.Mody, Ashoka. II. International Monetary Fund. HC286.G47 2013 Disclaimer: The views in this book are those of the authors and should not be reported as or attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or the governments of any of its members. ISBN: 978-1-61635-424-4 (paper) ISBN: 978-1-47558-239-0 (ePub) ISBN: 978-1-47552-249-5 (Mobipocket) ISBN: 978-1-47551-671-5 (Web PDF) Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, D.C. 20090, U.S.A. Tel: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.imfbookstore.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Contents Foreword v Christian Kastrop Preface ix Ashoka Mody 1 Tests of German Resilience .....................................................................1 Fabian Bornhorst and Ashoka Mody The Postwar Catch-Up ..........................................................................................................3
    [Show full text]
  • Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco November 3-5, 2013
    Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco November 3-5, 2013 Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference Agenda SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3 5:15pm Registration 6:00pm Opening Reception (4th Floor, Salons A&B) 7:00pm Dinner (4th Floor, Market Street Dining Room) WELCOMING REMARKS John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Jerome H. Powell, Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 7:45am Registration and Breakfast 8:30am INTRODUCTORY REMARKS John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 8:40am OPENING ADDRESS Jerome H. Powell, Governor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 9:15am SESSION 1: ASIA-PHORIA MEET REGRESSION TO THE MEAN Chair: Reuven Glick, Group Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Authors: Lant Pritchett, Professor of the Practice of International Development and Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University Discussants: Chang-Tai Hsieh, Phyllis and Irwin Winkelried Professor of Economics, University of Chicago and Robert C. Feenstra, C. Bryan Cameron Distinguished Chair in International Economics, University of California, Davis 10:05am General Discussion 10:30am Break MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 (Continued) 11:00am SESSION 2: CROWDING OUT REDEFINED: THE ROLE OF RESERVE ACCUMULATION Author: Carmen M. Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Finance System, Harvard University Discussants: Alan M. Taylor, Professor and Director of Center for the Evolution of the Global Economy, University of California, Davis and J.
    [Show full text]