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Enabling the Information Society by Stimulating The R Enabling the Information Society by Stimulating the Creation of a Broadband Environment in Europe Analyses of Evolution Scenarios for Future Networking Technologies and Networks in Europe Maarten Botterman, Robert H. Anderson, Paul van Binst, Jonathan Cave, Martin Libicki, Andreas Ligtvoet, Robbin te Velde, Gert Jan de Vries Prepared for the European Commission DG Information Society RAND Europe in partnership with Université Libre de Bruxelles ISBN: 0-8330-3336-0 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Scenarios for the future of broadband networking..............................................................5 1.1 What is Broadband?.....................................................................................................5 1.2 Objective and Outline..................................................................................................7 2 Technology and market developments ...............................................................................9 2.1 Technology Developments ..........................................................................................9 2.2 U.S. policy developments..........................................................................................11 2.2.1 Telephone Regulation.........................................................................................11 2.2.2 FCC Non-Regulation of the Internet ..................................................................13 2.2.3 Routes to Broadband ..........................................................................................14 2.2.4 Support for E-Commerce ...................................................................................15 2.2.5 Government Policy and Future Broadband Growth...........................................16 2.3 European Policy Developments.................................................................................16 2.3.1 Telecommunications regulation .........................................................................17 2.3.2 Routes to broadband...........................................................................................18 2.3.3 Flat Rate Pricing.................................................................................................19 2.3.4 The Internet in Europe........................................................................................21 2.3.5 Comparing the U.S. and EU Experience............................................................22 2.4 Research Networks ....................................................................................................24 2.4.1 European Networks ............................................................................................25 2.5 Wireless Routes to Broadband...................................................................................26 2.5.1 History................................................................................................................26 2.5.2 3G and 2.5G .......................................................................................................27 2.5.3 The Singular Characteristics of Wireless Internet..............................................29 2.5.4 Identification Technologies................................................................................30 2.6 Drivers .......................................................................................................................31 2.6.1 Drivers Past ........................................................................................................32 2.6.2 Drivers Present ...................................................................................................32 2.6.3 The Special Role of Standards and Governance ................................................33 3 Trends and input scenarios................................................................................................37 3.1 Convergence ..............................................................................................................37 3.1.1 Levels of Convergence.......................................................................................37 3.1.2 The Details of Convergence ...............................................................................38 3.1.3 Implications of Convergence..............................................................................39 3.2 Advanced Networks...................................................................................................41 3.2.1 GEANT ..............................................................................................................41 3.2.2 The Next Generation Internet.............................................................................42 3.2.3 Internet2..............................................................................................................44 3.2.4 Grid Computing..................................................................................................46 3.3 Backbone Deployment...............................................................................................46 3.4 Input scenarios...........................................................................................................48 3.4.1 Scenario 1 – Roses .............................................................................................49 3.4.2 Scenario 2 – Tulips.............................................................................................52 3.4.3 Scenario 3 – Bromeliads.....................................................................................55 3.4.4 Scenario 4 – Snowdrops.....................................................................................57 4 Policies and policy options ...............................................................................................61 4.1 Prevailing programmes in the policy discussion .......................................................61 4.1.1 The eEurope Initiative ........................................................................................61 4.1.2 Actions, Targets, and Priority Areas for eEurope ..............................................62 4.1.3 Afterthoughts......................................................................................................66 4.2 TEN Telecom ............................................................................................................66 4.3 IST .............................................................................................................................67 4.4 Prolegma to Policy.....................................................................................................68 4.4.1 Primary Drivers and their relation to Policy Choices.........................................68 4.4.2 Policies to Reduce Investment Risks..................................................................69 4.5 Policy Options ...........................................................................................................70 4.5.1 Regulation ..........................................................................................................70 4.5.2 Technology Development ..................................................................................72 4.5.3 Services and Content..........................................................................................73 5 Observations and policy recommendations ......................................................................75 5.1 Observations and recommendations from the Workshop..........................................75 5.2 Explanations and analyses .........................................................................................76 5.2.1 Fibre optic future................................................................................................76 5.2.2 Open, non proprietary standards and the role of government ............................77 5.2.3 Procurement as tool for sustainable development ..............................................77 5.2.4 Active role municipalities and higher layers of government..............................78 5.2.5 Appropriate role of competition .........................................................................81 5.2.6 IPv6 ....................................................................................................................82 5.2.7 Global co-ordination...........................................................................................82 5.2.8 Security for trust and confidence........................................................................82 5.2.9 Stimulate (access to) content..............................................................................83
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