Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth RESEARCH ARTICLE Towards Quantitative Volcanic Risk of Pyroclastic Density 10.1029/2017JB015383 Currents: Probabilistic Hazard Curves and Maps Key Points: Around Somma-Vesuvius (Italy) • We develop a three-stage methodology to quantify aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of P. Tierz1,2 , E. R. Stefanescu3,4, L. Sandri1 , R. Sulpizio5,6 , G. A. Valentine7 , dense-PDC hazard 8 3 • A comprehensive collection W. Marzocchi , and A. K. Patra of probabilistic hazard curves and maps for flow depth and speed 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy, 2Now at British Geological Survey, is obtained The Lyell Centre, Edinburgh, UK, 3Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, • Such hazard products represent USA, 4Now at Self-Driving Car Nanodegree Program, Udacity, Mountain View, CA, USA, 5Dipartimento di Scienze della a crucial step into the quantification 6 of volcanic risk of dense PDCs Terra e Geoambientali, Università di Bari, Bari, Italy, Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Milan, Italy, 7Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA, 8Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma1, Rome, Italy Supporting Information: • Supporting Information S1 •DataSetS1 Abstract Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are hot flowing mixtures of gas and pyroclasts that can cause widespread loss of life and structural damage around the erupting volcano. Hazard assessments Correspondence to: that include quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are a necessary step toward calculating P. Ti e r z ,
[email protected] volcanic risk of PDCs in an accurate and complete manner.