and Climate Change National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior

Lake Meredith

Background Birds are useful indicators of ecological change because they are highly mobile and generally conspicuous. As climate in a particular place changes, suitability may worsen for some species and improve for others. These changes in climate may create the potential for local extirpation or new colonization. This brief summarizes projected changes in climate suitability by mid- century for birds at Lake Meredith National Recreation Area (hereafter, the Recreation Area) under two climate change scenarios (see Wu et al. 2018 for full results, and Langham et al. 2015 for more information regarding how climate suitability is characterized). The high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5) represents a future in which little action We report trends in climate suitability for all species is taken to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases. identified as currently present at the Recreation Area The low-emissions pathway (RCP2.6) is a best-case based on both NPS Inventory & Monitoring Program data scenario of aggressive efforts to reduce emissions. These and eBird observation data (2016), plus those species for emissions pathways are globally standardized and which climate at the Recreation Area is projected to established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate become suitable in the future (Figure 1 & Table 1). This Change for projecting future climate change. The findings brief provides park-specific projections whereas Wu et al. below are model-based projections of how species (2018), which did not incorporate park-specific species distributions may change in response to climate change. A data and thus may differ from this brief, provides system- 10-km buffer was applied to each park to match the spatial wide comparison and conclusions. resolution of the species distribution models (10 x 10 km), and climate suitability was taken as the average of all cells encompassed by the park and buffer. Results Climate change is expected to alter the found at the Recreation Area today, potentially resulting in community at the Recreation Area, with greater local colonization. impacts under the high-emissions pathway than under the low-emissions pathway (Figure 1). Among the species likely to be found at the Recreation Area today, climate suitability in summer under the high- emissions pathway is projected to improve for 26, remain stable for 44 (e.g., Figure 2), and worsen for 5 species. Suitable climate ceases to occur for 7 species in summer, potentially resulting in extirpation of those species from the Recreation Area. Climate is projected to become suitable in summer for 31 species not found at the Recreation Area today, potentially resulting in local colonization. Climate suitability in winter under the high- emissions pathway is projected to improve for 40, remain stable for 52, and worsen for 12 species. Suitable climate ceases to occur for 18 species in winter, potentially resulting in extirpation from the Recreation Area. Climate is projected to become suitable in winter for 50 species not Figure 1. Projected changes in climate suitability for birds at the Recreation Area, by emissions pathway and season.

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 1 of 7 Results (continued) Potential Turnover Index 2015). While the Recreation Area may serve as an Potential bird species turnover for the Recreation important refuge for 16 of these climate-sensitive species, 2 Area between the present and 2050 is 0.27 in might be extirpated from the Recreation Area in at least summer (45th percentile across all national parks) one season by 2050. and 0.25 in winter (36th percentile) under the high-emissions pathway. Potential species turnover declines to 0.13 in summer and 0.14 in winter under the low-emissions pathway. Turnover index was calculated based on the theoretical proportions of potential extirpations and potential colonizations by 2050 relative to today (as reported in Wu et al. 2018), and therefore assumes that all potential extirpations and colonizations are realized. According to this index, no change would be represented as 0, whereas a complete change in the bird community would be represented as 1.

Climate Sensitive Species The Recreation Area is or may become home to 18 species that are highly sensitive to climate change across their range (i.e., they are projected to lose climate suitability in Figure 2. Climate at the Recreation Area in summer is over 50% of their current range in in projected to remain suitable for the Red-winged Blackbird summer and/or winter by 2050; Table 1; Langham et al. (Agelaius phoeniceus) through 2050. Photo by Andy Reago & Chrissy McClarren/Flickr (CC BY 2.0). Management Implications Parks differ in potential colonization and extirpation rates, across boundaries, managing the disturbance regime, and and therefore different climate change adaptation possibly more intensive management actions. strategies may apply. Under the high-emissions Furthermore, park managers have an opportunity to focus pathway, Lake Meredith National Recreation Area on supporting the 16 species that are highly sensitive to falls within the high potential colonization group. climate change across their range (Table 1; Langham et al. Parks anticipating high potential colonization can focus on 2015) but for which the park is a potential refuge. actions that increase species' ability to respond to Monitoring to identify changes in bird communities will environmental change, such as increasing the amount of inform the selection of appropriate management potential habitat, working with cooperating agencies and responses. landowners to improve habitat connectivity for birds Caveats The species distribution models included in this study are that affect demography, biotic interactions that inhibit and based solely on climate variables (i.e., a combination of facilitate species' colonization or extirpation, dispersal annual and seasonal measures of temperature and capacity, species' evolutionary adaptive capacity, and precipitation), which means there are limits on their phenotypic plasticity (e.g., behavioral adjustments). interpretation. Significant changes in climate suitability, as Ultimately, models can tell us where to focus our concern measured here, will not always result in a species response, and which species are most likely to be affected, but and all projections should be interpreted as potential monitoring is the only way to validate these projections and trends. Multiple other factors mediate responses to climate should inform any on-the-ground conservation action. change, including habitat availability, ecological processes

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 2 of 7 More Information For more information, including details on the methods, Wu et al. (2018) Projected avifaunal responses to climate please see the scientific publication (Wu et al. 2018) and change across the U.S. National Park System. PLOS ONE. the project overview brief, and visit the NPS Climate Change Response Program website. Contacts Gregor Schuurman, Ph.D. References Ecologist, NPS Climate Change Response Program eBird Basic Dataset (2016) Version: ebd_relAug-2016. 970-267-7211, [email protected] Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, . Joanna Wu Langham et al. (2015) Conservation Status of North Biologist, National Audubon Society American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change. 415-644-4610, [email protected] PLOS ONE.

Species Projections Table 1. Climate suitability projections by 2050 under the high-emissions pathway for all birds currently present at the Recreation Area based on both NPS Inventory & Monitoring Program data and eBird observation data, plus those species for which climate at the Recreation Area is projected to become suitable in the future. "Potential colonization" indicates that climate is projected to become suitable for the species, whereas "potential extirpation" indicates that climate is suitable today but projected to become unsuitable. Omitted species were either not modeled due to data deficiency or were absent from the I&M and eBird datasets. Observations of late-season migrants may result in these species appearing as present in the park when they may only migrate through. Species are ordered according to taxonomic groups, denoted by alternating background shading. * Species in top and bottom 10th percentile of absolute change ^ Species that are highly climate sensitive - Species not found or found only occasionally, and not projected to colonize by 2050 x Species not modeled in this season Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend

Potential Lesser Scaup - Improving Black-bellied Whistling-Duck - colonization Bufflehead - Improving Potential Cackling/Canada Goose x extirpation Common Goldeneye - Stable

^ Wood Duck x Stable Hooded Merganser - Improving

Gadwall - Stable Common Merganser - Stable

^ American Wigeon - Improving Red-breasted Merganser - Improving

Potential Ruddy Duck Stable Improving* Mallard Stable extirpation^ Scaled Quail Stable Stable Blue-winged Teal Stable Improving Northern Bobwhite Stable Stable Potential Cinnamon Teal - Potential colonization Ring-necked Pheasant Worsening* extirpation Northern Shoveler Stable^ Improving Wild Turkey x Worsening* Potential Northern Pintail x Red-throated Loon - Improving colonization Common Loon - Stable^ Green-winged Teal x Improving Potential Canvasback - Improving Least Grebe - colonization Ring-necked Duck - Improving Pied-billed Grebe x Improving Greater Scaup - Stable^ Horned Grebe - Stable

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 3 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend

Eared Grebe - Improving* Virginia Rail - Improving

Western Grebe - Stable Potential Sora - colonization Potential Clark's Grebe - colonization Potential Common Gallinule - colonization Potential Wood Stork - colonization American Coot x Improving

Potential Potential Neotropic Cormorant - American Avocet x colonization colonization^

Double-crested Cormorant x Stable Killdeer Stable Improving

Potential Potential Anhinga - Spotted Sandpiper - colonization^ colonization

American White Pelican x Stable Greater Yellowlegs Stable Improving*

Great Blue Heron Stable Improving Lesser Yellowlegs Stable^ Stable

Potential Potential Great Egret Stable Long-billed Curlew - colonization colonization

Potential Dunlin - Improving^ Snowy Egret x colonization Least Sandpiper - Improving* Potential Little Blue Heron - Potential colonization Western Sandpiper - colonization Cattle Egret Improving - Potential Long-billed Dowitcher x Green Heron Stable - colonization

Potential Wilson's Snipe - Improving Black-crowned Night-Heron x colonization Wilson's Phalarope Improving^ - Potential Black Vulture - colonization Bonaparte's Gull - Improving*

Golden Eagle - Worsening* Franklin's Gull Stable -

^ Mississippi Kite Improving* x Ring-billed Gull Improving Stable

Potential Potential Northern Harrier Stable Yellow-footed Gull - extirpation^ colonization

^ Sharp-shinned Hawk - Worsening Herring Gull - Stable Potential Cooper's Hawk x Stable Forster's Tern x colonization Potential Bald Eagle - Potential extirpation Rock Pigeon Stable extirpation Potential Potential Harris's Hawk colonization colonization Eurasian Collared-Dove x Improving

Swainson's Hawk Improving^ - White-winged Dove Improving Improving*

Red-tailed Hawk Stable Worsening Mourning Dove Stable Improving Potential Ferruginous Hawk - Worsening* Inca Dove - colonization Potential Rough-legged Hawk - extirpation

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 4 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend

Potential Northern Beardless- Potential Common Ground-Dove - - colonization Tyrannulet colonization

Yellow-billed Cuckoo Improving - Western Wood-Pewee Stable^ -

Greater Roadrunner Improving* Improving Potential Dusky Flycatcher - colonization Barn Owl x Stable Potential Black Phoebe - Eastern Screech-Owl - Stable colonization

Great Horned Owl x Worsening Potential Eastern Phoebe Improving colonization Burrowing Owl Stable^ - Say's Phoebe - Improving* Common Nighthawk Stable - Potential Potential Vermilion Flycatcher - Common Pauraque - colonization colonization Ash-throated Flycatcher Improving* - Chimney Swift Improving - Great Crested Flycatcher Stable - Potential Ringed Kingfisher - colonization Potential Brown-crested Flycatcher - colonization Belted Kingfisher Stable Stable Potential Red-headed Woodpecker Stable Stable Great Kiskadee - colonization Potential Gila Woodpecker - Western Kingbird Stable - colonization Potential Golden-fronted Woodpecker Improving* Stable Eastern Kingbird - extirpation Red-bellied Woodpecker Stable Stable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Improving* - Yellow-bellied Sapsucker - Stable Loggerhead Shrike Stable Improving Ladder-backed Woodpecker Improving* Stable Northern Shrike - Stable Potential Downy Woodpecker Stable Potential extirpation White-eyed Vireo - colonization Potential Hairy Woodpecker - Blue Jay Stable Stable extirpation California/Woodhouse's Potential Potential Red-cockaded Woodpecker - Scrub-Jay (Western Scrub- - extirpation colonization Jay)

Northern Flicker Improving Worsening Potential American Crow Stable extirpation Potential Gilded Flicker - colonization Chihuahuan Raven Improving* Stable

Potential Potential Crested Caracara - Horned Lark Worsening* colonization extirpation

American Kestrel x Stable Northern Rough-winged Potential Improving Swallow colonization Merlin - Stable^ Potential Potential Purple Martin - Peregrine Falcon - colonization colonization Potential Prairie Falcon - Stable Violet-green Swallow - colonization

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 5 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend

Barn Swallow Worsening* - Potential Bendire's Thrasher - colonization Cliff Swallow Improving - Potential Potential LeConte's Thrasher - Cave Swallow - colonization colonization Potential Crissal Thrasher - Carolina Chickadee Stable Improving* colonization Potential Potential Black-crested Titmouse Northern Mockingbird Stable Improving colonization colonization European Starling Stable Stable Potential White-breasted Nuthatch - extirpation American Pipit - Improving*

Potential Potential Pygmy Nuthatch - Cedar Waxwing - colonization extirpation

Potential Potential Brown Creeper - Phainopepla - extirpation colonization

Rock Wren Stable Stable Potential Swainson's Warbler - colonization Potential Potential House Wren extirpation colonization Potential Orange-crowned Warbler - colonization Marsh Wren - Stable Potential Potential Lucy's Warbler - Carolina Wren - colonization colonization Potential Potential Common Yellowthroat Bewick's Wren Improving Stable extirpation colonization

Potential Potential Cactus Wren - Black-throated Gray Warbler - colonization colonization Potential Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Stable Yellow-breasted Chat Stable - colonization Potential Potential Potential Green-tailed Towhee - Black-tailed Gnatcatcher colonization colonization colonization Rufous-crowned Sparrow x Worsening* Ruby-crowned Kinglet - Improving Potential Canyon Towhee Stable Eastern Bluebird Stable Worsening colonization

Potential Potential Western Bluebird - Abert's Towhee - colonization colonization

Mountain Bluebird - Stable Potential Rufous-winged Sparrow - colonization Townsend's Solitaire - Worsening* Cassin's Sparrow Worsening - Hermit Thrush - Stable Potential Potential Potential Potential Bachman's Sparrow American Robin colonization colonization extirpation extirpation Potential Curve-billed Thrasher Improving* Stable American Tree Sparrow - extirpation Brown Thrasher - Stable Chipping Sparrow - Improving Potential Long-billed Thrasher - Field Sparrow - Stable colonization Vesper Sparrow - Improving*

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 6 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend

Potential Dickcissel Stable - Lark Sparrow Stable colonization Red-winged Blackbird Stable Stable Potential Black-throated Sparrow - colonization Eastern Meadowlark Stable Stable

Lark Bunting Worsening* - Western Meadowlark Worsening* Worsening

Savannah Sparrow - Improving Yellow-headed Blackbird Improving -

Potential Brewer's Blackbird - Stable Sparrow - colonization Common Grackle Stable Improving Potential Henslow's Sparrow - Great-tailed Grackle Stable Improving* colonization Potential Potential Song Sparrow - Stable Bronzed colonization colonization Lincoln's Sparrow - Improving Brown-headed Cowbird Stable Stable Swamp Sparrow - Stable Orchard Oriole Stable - White-throated Sparrow - Stable Potential Hooded Oriole - Harris's Sparrow - Stable colonization

White-crowned Sparrow - Improving Bullock's Oriole Improving* -

Potential Potential Dark-eyed Junco - Altamira Oriole - extirpation colonization Potential Northern Improving* Stable Scott's Oriole - colonization Potential Pyrrhuloxia - colonization House Finch Improving Stable Potential Blue Grosbeak Improving - Pine Siskin - extirpation Lazuli Bunting Stable - Potential American Goldfinch - Stable - extirpation

Painted Bunting Improving* - Potential House Sparrow x extirpation

Birds and Climate Change: Lake Meredith National Recreation Area | Page 7 of 7