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Market Prospects of Upland Crop Products

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Market Prospects of Upland Crop Products The CGPRT Centre The Regional Co-ordination Centre for Research and Development of Coarse Grains, Pulses, Roots and Tuber Crops in the Humid Tropics of Asia and the Pacific (CGPRT Centre) was established in 1981 as a subsidiary body of UN/ESCAP. Objectives In co-operation with ESCAP member countries, the Centre will initiate and promote research, training and dissemination of information on socio-economic and related aspects of CGPRT crops in Asia and the Pacific. In its activities, the Centre aims to serve the needs of institutions concerned with planning, research, extension and development in relation to CGPRT crop production, marketing and use. Programmes In pursuit of its objectives, the Centre has two interlinked programmes to be carried out in the spirit of technical cooperation among developing countries: 1. Research and development which entails the preparation and implementation of projects and studies covering production, utilization and trade of CGPRT crops in the countries of Asia and the South Pacific. 2. Human resource development and collection, processing and dissemination of relevant information for use by researchers, policy makers and extension workers. CGPRT Centre Working Papers currently available: Working Paper No. 54 An Agricultural Statistical Profile of Bangladesh, 1947-1999 by Mohammad A.T. Chowdhury and Harry Zulfikar Working Paper No. 55 Food Security Strategies for the Republic of Fiji by Hiagi M. Foraete Working Paper No. 56 Food Security Strategies for Papua New Guinea by Passinghan Buckley K. Igua Working Paper No. 57 Food Security Strategies for the Kingdom of Tonga by S.M. Halavatau and N.V. Halavatau Working Paper No. 58 Food Security Strategies for Vanuatu by Shadrack R. Welegtabit Working Paper No. 59 Integrated Report: Food Security Strategies for Selected South Pacific Island Countries by Pantjar Simatupang and Euan Fleming Working Paper No. 60 CGPRT Crops in the Philippines: A Statistical Profile 1990-1999 by Mohammad A.T. Chowdhury and Muhamad Arif Working Paper No. 61 Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino Induced Climatic Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Malaysia by Ariffin bin Tawang, Tengku Ariff bin Tengku Ahmad and Mohd. Yusof bin Abdullah Working Paper No. 62 Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Indonesia by Bambang Irawan (Continued on inside back cover) Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risks: Regional and Farm Level Risk Management and Coping Mechanisms in the Kedah-Perlis Region, Malaysia “CGPRT Centre Works Towards Reducing Poverty Through Enhancing Sustainable Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific Region” The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions expressed in signed articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the United Nations. WORKING PAPER 70 Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risks: Regional and Farm Level Risk Management and Coping Mechanisms in the Kedah-Perlis Region, Malaysia Ariffin bin Tawang Tengku Ariff bin Tengku Ahmad CGPRT Centre Regional Co-ordination Centre for Research and Development of Coarse Grains, Pulses, Roots and Tuber Crops in the Humid Tropics of Asia and the Pacific CGPRT Centre Jalan Merdeka 145, Bogor 16111 Indonesia © 2003 by the CGPRT Centre All rights reserved. Published 2003 Printed in Indonesia National Library: Cataloguing in Publication Ariffin bin Tawang Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climatic Risks: Regional and Farm Level Risk Management and Coping Mechanisms in the Kedah-Perlis Region, Malaysia / Ariffin bin Tawang and Tengku Ariff bin Tengku Ahmad. -- Bogor: CGPRT Centre, 2003. xxii, 82 pp.; 25.5 cm. -- (Working paper series; No. 70) Bibliography: 2 pp. ISBN 979-9317-30-4 1. Agriculture -- Malaysia I. Title II. Tengku Ariff bin Tengku Ahmad III. Series 338.185 95 Table of Contents Page List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... xi Glossary of Acronyms ............................................................................................................. xiii Foreword .................................................................................................................................. xv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. xvii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ xix 1. Introduction 1.1 Stabilization of upland agriculture under El Nino induced climatic risk: impact assessment and mitigation measures in Malaysia .................................................. 1 1.2 Scope and objectives of the study ......................................................................... 2 1.3 Organization of the report ..................................................................................... 2 2. The Study Area 2.1 The selection criteria ............................................................................................. 5 2.2 Profile of the study area.......................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 The geographical location ......................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Geology and soil ....................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 Agro-climatic characteristics .................................................................... 8 2.2.4 Natural resources ...................................................................................... 8 2.2.5 The economy ............................................................................................. 10 2.2.6 Land use .................................................................................................... 11 2.2.7 Demography of farms and the farmers ..................................................... 13 2.2.8 Policy dimensions at regional level .......................................................... 14 2.2.9 The role of state-level institutions ............................................................. 15 3. The El Nino Events and Climatic Change 3.1 Effects on rainfall .................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 The monthly rainfall level ......................................................................... 19 3.1.2 The monthly rainy days ............................................................................ 21 3.2 Effects on temperature ........................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 Mean temperature ..................................................................................... 22 3.2.2 Maximum and minimum temperature ....................................................... 23 3.3 Effects on daily sunshine hours ............................................................................. 25 3.4 Effects on solar radiation ....................................................................................... 27 3.5 Effects on total suspended particulate (TSP) ......................................................... 28 4. The Regional Impacts 4.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Relationships between crop performance and weather variables .......................... 30 4.2.1 Graphical disposition ................................................................................ 30 4.2.2 El Nino and non-El Nino years weather indicators ................................... 35 4.3 Oil palm ................................................................................................................. 37 4.4 Rubber ................................................................................................................... 38 4.5 Paddy ................................................................................................................... 39 v 4.6 Tobacco ................................................................................................................. 40 4.7 Other crops ............................................................................................................ 41 4.7.1 Sugarcane .................................................................................................. 41 4.7.2 Fruits and vegetables ................................................................................ 42 4.8 Livestock ............................................................................................................... 47 4.9 Fisheries ................................................................................................................ 48 4.10 The yield functions ................................................................................................ 49 4.10.1 Oil
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