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Ukraine SITREP 4-16-15 Ukraine Crisis Update: April 16, 2015 1 April 10: e Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it arrested 6 April 12: e State Border Guard 40 people in Odesa suspected of plotting terrorist attacks. Some of Service of Ukraine reported a the detainees are suspected of planning attacks during Orthodox suspected Russian Mi-8 helicopter Easter celebrations and on May 2 to mark the one-year anniver- ying near the Ukrainian frontline sary of the violent clashes in which 48 pro-Russian activists died town of Stanytsia Luhanska. in Odesa. 7 April 15: e spokesman for 2 April 10-16: Pro-Russian forces intensied shelling and Ukraine’s Anti-Terrorist Operation infantry assaults on Ukrainian forces near the ruins of the LUHANSK reported the buildup of 2,000 Donetsk airport, the sharpest escalation in ghting in recent OBLAST Russian troops and 50 units of armor weeks. e ATO reported coming under re from tanks, near Veydelevka, Belgorod Oblast, heavy artillery and mortars, and incendiary munitions. e Russia, ten kilometers from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) accused Ukrainian tanks 1 Ukrainian border. of launching strikes on its positions near the airport. 8 April 15: Unknown gunmen 3 April 10-16: e international monitoring mission of Sievierodonetsk killed former Ukrainian MP Oleh the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Shchastia Kalashnikov and prominent Europe (OSCE) reported “renewed intensive ghting” 6 pro-Russian journalist Oles Buzyna near Shyrokyne, which it says is under the control of 5 near their homes in Kyiv. the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). Heavy Sloviansk Kalashnikov was a former member shelling was reported in the surrounding Pervomaisk Luhansk of ousted president Viktor area, including from tanks. Kramatorsk Krasnodon Artemivsk Stakhanov Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and had suspected ties to the 4 Alchevsk April 10-11: Pro-Ukrainian activists pro-Russian counter-demonstrations toppled three Soviet-era monuments in Debaltseve Krasnyi Luch Horlivka to Ukraine’s 2013-14 “Euromaidan” Kharkiv following the Ukrainian Antratsyt protest movement. Kalashnikov’s parliament’s recent passage of a law banning Sverdlovsk assassination adds to a growing list Nazi and Communist symbols. An outspo- of former ocials with ties to the ken pro-Russian gure in Kharkiv thought to 2 Yanukovych regime that have died be tied to terrorist cells operating in the city Donetsk Ilovaisk under suspicious circumstances in issued a threat suggesting that ve Ukraini- 2015. ans would be killed for each Soviet-era statue toppled. DONETSK OBLAST 5 April 11-15: Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces clashed along the T1303 Bakhmutka Volnovakha highway, where regular Russian troops were reported by the Luhansk Oblast governor. 7 Ukrainian forces were subjected to re from 4 8 tanks, mortars, grenade launchers, and small Novoazovsk arms, according to reports. Mariupol 3 1 Donestk People’s Rebublic (DNR) Acting Regional Admin Center Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Regional Admin Center Cossack Separatist Held Territory Combined Separatist Major Clash Hugo Spaulding and the ISW Ukraine Team ©2015 by the Institute for the Study of War Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Indirect Fire Russian-backed separatist attacks on Ukrainian positions intensied in three key areas over the past week, suggesting Russia and its proxies may be preparing to rupture the framework of the ceasere agreement by re-launching oensive maneuvers. Escalating clashes along the contested Bakhmutka highway, near the destroyed Donetsk airport, and east of the Ukrainian-held port city of Mariupol may oer a launching point for a major Russian oensive in one or more of these areas. Reports this week from U.S. and Ukrainian ocials of Russian troops and command and control elements operating in separatist-held areas of Donbas suggest that Russia is positioning itself to support an oensive despite continued lip service to the ceasere agreement. e arrival of a 24th uninspected Russian aid convoy to the separatist-held regions may also support these preparations. Germany and France continued eorts to reinforce the ceasere framework by releasing a joint statement with Ukraine and Russia calling for the withdrawal of tanks and heavy weapons from the front line. Such statements may have little impact on the deteriorating situation in Donbas, however, if Russian support for the ceasere continues to be at odds with its activity on the ground. .
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