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University of Cincinnati UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI Date: 7-Oct-2010 I, Troy C Payne , hereby submit this original work as part of the requirements for the degree of: Doctor of Philosophy in Criminal Justice It is entitled: Does Changing Ownership Change Crime? An Analysis of Apartment Ownership and Crime in Cincinnati Student Signature: Troy C Payne This work and its defense approved by: Committee Chair: John Eck, PhD John Eck, PhD James Frank, PhD James Frank, PhD Pamela Wilcox, PhD Pamela Wilcox, PhD Elizabeth Groff, PhD Elizabeth Groff, Ph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bstract Crime at multi-family dwellings is an ongoing concern. Using concepts from environmental criminology, this dissertation adapts Madensen’s (2007) model of bar place management to apartments. One aspect of this model, the relationship between ownership change of an apartment building and crime, is examined. I found that while about half of apartments change ownership during the period 2002-2009, serial ownership change is rare. Crime is heavily concentrated among apartments, with over half of crime occurring at just 10% of apartments – and these extreme values of crime tend to drive the multivariate analysis. Ownership change and crime are associated with each other in a feedback system. Ownership change is more likely at apartments with a history of past crime, and ownership change is associated with a 10% increase in future crime counts. Neighborhood context has a complex relationship with significant variation between neighborhoods in both crime counts and in the relationship between ownership change and crime. In some neighborhoods, ownership change and crime are positively related; in other neighborhoods, the relationship is negative. Even though my findings are sensitive to extreme values, methodology and model selection decisions, it is apparent that ownership change could be an important intervention point for crime prevention. Interventions such as landlord training should be targeted at high crime apartments which change ownership, while recognizing that the overwhelming majority of apartments and apartment owners have zero crime. ' '' Acknowledgements Any errors of omission or commission in this dissertation are mine alone – and they would have been much more numerous without the input of others. First among these is my wife, Carrie Payne. Without Carrie, my academic career simply would not be possible. This work, and any other work I produce from here forward, simply could not have existed without her support over the past decade or so. I owe her more than I can say. My fellow students at the School of Criminal Justice at the University of Cincinnati were also helpful. Specifically, Heidi Scherer provided key insights that enabled me to break through multiple mental blocks during the analysis. Her willingness to provide commentary via text, instant message, email, and phone was incredible. I suspect she will need less help than I did on her dissertation, but I stand ready to repay that debt. John Campbell’s landlord training provided me with the opportunity to interact with landlords. His training and that interaction sparked the specific idea that eventually lead to this dissertation. The City of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Police Department invited Campbell to Cincinnati to conduct those landlord trainings and were nice enough to invite me as well. Lt. Brett Issac, Sgt. Maris Herold, and Officer Katie Werner of the Cincinnati Police Department were very patient with me. They taught me everything I know about how to provide timely, useful, actionable analysis to a police department. Finally, each member of the faculty at the University of Cincinnati School of Criminal Justice has given me different insights into research, teaching, and academic life. Even faculty not directly related to my particular research interests have provided invaluable insight and experience. I thank them all. My dissertation committee deserves special mention. Drs. Frank, ''' Wilcox, and Groff all provided useful feedback on this dissertation. My dissertation chair, John E. Eck, has provided a critical eye at exactly the right moments, while giving me plenty of room to think for myself. '4 Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. iii Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 Overview .............................................................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 2: Crime theory and place ................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 3: Crime concentration and place .................................................................................. 8 The need for facility-specific models and small units of analysis ................................................ 11 Chapter 4: Place management and apartments in the literature ...................................... 14 Chapter 5: A dynamic theory of place management of apartments ................................. 17 Crime patterning and the consequences of poor place management over time .................... 24 Hypotheses ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 6: Data .................................................................................................................................... 31 Setting ................................................................................................................................................................ 31 Data ..................................................................................................................................................................... 31 8,".0!#*1TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUS **1$-01#04'!#TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUT #-%0.&7,"#,131TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUU 8',)',%-5,#01&'.Q!0'+#Q,"*-!2'-,"2TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUU Operational definition of apartments .................................................................................................... 34 Dependent variable ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Apartment-level measures ......................................................................................................................... 36 5,#01&'.!&,%#TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUX #!-,-+'!0#1-30!#1TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUY '8#TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUZ !0'-0!**1$-01#04'!#TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTUZ Neighborhood-level crime as context .................................................................................................... 39 Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................. 41 Chapter 7: Apartment characteristics and distribution of owner change ...................... 42 Size ...................................................................................................................................................................... 42 Economic resources ...................................................................................................................................... 43 Neighborhood context ................................................................................................................................. 43 Ownership change ......................................................................................................................................... 44 Ownership change is associated with past crime .............................................................................
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