Cincinnati 2014 Violent Crime Summary
Prepared for the Law and Public Safety Committee, Cincinnati City Council
February 2, 2015
Institute of Crime Science School of Criminal Justice University of Cincinnati Part I Violent Crime Summary
•Homicide •Robbery •Aggravated Assault •Rape Cincinnati Part I Violent Crime January 1 - December 31 4500
3951 4000 3844 3824 3604 3500 3433 3371 -40.5% 2965 3000 2809 2649 2500 2352
2000
1500
1000
500
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Part I Violent Crime in Cincinnati January 1 – December 31
Part I Violent Crime
Short-term Trends
2013-2014 2013 2014 % Change Change
2649 2352 -297 -11.2%
Long-term Trends
3-Year Avg. % Change 2014 5-Year Avg. % Change 2014 (2011-2013) vs. 3-Year (2009-2013) vs. 5-Year
2807.7 -16.2% 3079.6 -23.6% Homicides and Fatal and Nonfatal Shootings Cincinnati Homicide Totals January 1 – December 31 100 89 90 80 80 75 72 74 68 70 68 63 60 60 53
50
40
30
20
10
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cincinnati Group/Gang Member Involved (GMI) Homicides January 1 – December 31 80
70
60 56
50 47 48 49 43 39 40
37 36 30 33 30
20
10
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings January 1 – December 31
550 510 500 487
450 432 436 420 418 430 400 383 377 361 350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings January 1 – December 31 550 510 500 487
450 432 430 400 420 418 436 383 377 350 361 300
250
200
150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YTD Shooting Totals Avg. YTD Shootings +2 Std. Dev -2 Std. Dev. Cincinnati Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings by Month 2014 Compared to Four Year Avg.
50
45 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 38 34 36 35 35 39 36 30 30 33 29 30 33 25 22 27 27 26 26 24 20 22 15
10
5
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2013 Avg. 2014 Homicides and Shootings in Cincinnati January 1 – December 31
HOMICIDES SHOOTINGS
Short-term Trends Short-term Trends
2013- 2013- % % 2013 2014 2014 2013 2014 2014 Change Change Change Change
74 63 -11 -14.9% 436 377 -59 -13.5%
Long-term Trends Long-term Trends
3-Year 5-Year % 3-Year 5-Year % % Change % Change Avg. Avg. Change Avg. Avg. Change 2014 vs. 3- 2014 vs. 3- (2011- (2009- 2014 vs. (2011- (2009- 2014 vs. Year Year 2013) 2013) 5-Year 2013) 2013) 5-Year
65.0 -3.1% 65.4 -3.7% 416.3 -9.4% 417.4 -9.7% GMI Homicides and Shootings in Cincinnati January 1 – December 31
GMI HOMICIDES GMI SHOOTINGS
Short-term Trends Short-term Trends
2013- 2013- % % 2013 2014 2014 2013 2014 2014 Change Change Change Change
47 36 -11 -23.4% 272 184 -88 -32.4%
Long-term Trends
3-Year 5-Year % % Change Avg. Avg. Change 2014 vs. 3- (2011- (2009- 2014 vs. Year 2013) 2013) 5-Year
40.0 -10.0% 38.4 -6.3% Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings in Top 11 Neighborhoods January 1 – December 31 Neighborhood 2012 2013 2014
Avondale 35 46 50 Over-The-Rhine 43 56 28 Walnut Hills 30 21 28 41.4% of all shootings East Price Hill 27 24 25 West End 26 31 25 Westwood 27 19 16 West Price Hill 18 11 15 Winton Hills 12 26 15 Roselawn 17 15 13 Millvale 7 13 13 Mount Airy 11 12 13 Top 11 Neighborhood 253 274 241 Total City Total 383 436 377 % of City Total 66.1% 62.8% 63.9% Cincinnati Top 5 Neighborhoods Fatal and Non-Fatal Shootings January 1 – December 31 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Avondale E Price Hill OTR Walnut Hills West End Robberies Cincinnati Robberies January 1 - December 31 2750
2500 2409 2271 2311 2268 2250 2098 -44.0% 2000 1964 1756 1717 1750 1595
1500 1349 1250
1000
750
500
250
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Robberies in Cincinnati January 1 – December 31
Robberies
Short-term Trends
2013- % 2013 2014 2014 Change Change
1596 1349 247 -15.4%
Long-term Trends
3-Year 5-Year % % Change Avg. Avg. Change 2014 vs. 3- (2011- (2009- 2014 vs. Year 2013) 2013) 5-Year
1689.3 -20.1% 1886.8 -28.5% Cincinnati Robberies by Month 2014 Compared to Four Year Average (2010-2013)
180 168 166 171 158 157 159 156 160 146 148 137 140 129 134 120 120 127 131 98 121 100 113 111 112 111 113 78 80 78 60
40
20
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2013 Avg. 2014 Robberies in Top 10 Neighborhoods January 1 – December 31 Neighborhood 2012 2013 2014
Over-The-Rhine 151 143 121 Westwood 141 141 121 Walnut Hills 107 84 95 37.9% of all East Price Hill 123 105 88 robberies Avondale 108 113 87 West Price Hill 100 86 81 CBD/Riverfront 86 75 54 West End 71 58 49 College Hill 48 37 47 Northside 56 39 44 Top 10 Neighborhood 991 881 787 Total City Total 1719 1596 1349 % of City Total 57.6% 55.2% 58.3% 2014 Violence Summary 2014 Overall Violence: 11.2% from 2013 23.6% from 5-year average
2014 Homicides: 14.9% from 2013 3.7% from 5-year average
2014 GMI Homicides: 23.4% from 2013 6.3% from 5-year average
2014 Shootings: 13.5% from 2013 9.7% from 5-year average
2014 GMI Shootings: 32.4% from 2013
2014 Robberies: 15.4% from 2013 28.5% from 5-year average