Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities
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Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee November 2018 Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities November 2018 United Nations Development Programme www.bd.undp.org United Nations Development Programme UN Offices, 18th Floor, IDB Bhaban Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh www.bd.undp.org Standard Disclaimer: This report is a product of the UNDP Bangladesh Country Office. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the UNDP or the governments they represent. UNDP does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of UNDP concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: Copyright © United Nations Development Programme, Bangladesh Country Office UN Offices, 18th Floor, IDB Bhaban, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh Table of Contents Figures, tables and boxes IV CHAPTER 4 36 Acknowledgement VIII The Rohingya influx, GoB response and institutional set-up Acronyms IX 4.1. The refugee population profile 37 Executive summary 1 4.1.1. Definition 37 4.1.2. Previous inflows, repatriation and CHAPTER 1 16 37 remaining refugees Introduction 4.1.3. The latest influx 37 4.1.4. Demographic and other characteristics 37 CHAPTER 2 18 of refugees 4.2. Bangladesh government policy on the Rationale and methodology 39 Rohingya and response 2.1. Rationale 18 4.3. Organizational framework for the refugee 42 2.2. Approach 18 crisis management 2.3. Methodology 19 4.3.1. Critical public institutions engaged in 42 2.3.1. Quantitative data collection 20 managing the Rohingya crisis 2.3.2. Qualitative data collection 20 4.3.2. Short-/medium-term response 42 4.3.3. From humanitarian assistance to 2.3.3. Secondary sources 21 44 recovery 2.4. Limitations 21 4.3.4. DC Office–RRRC–ISCG coordination 44 CHAPTER 3 24 CHAPTER 5 48 A baseline survey of the two districts prior to the refugee influx Socio-economic impacts of the Rohingya influx on host communities 3.1. Geographic characteristics: resource 24 endowments, land utilization and production 5.1. Brief overview of sample households 48 5.2. Microeconomic impacts: Impacts on prices, 3.2. Demographic situation 25 52 wages and poverty incidence 3.3. Labour market 26 5.2.1. Impacts on prices 52 3.4. Occupation and employment 27 5.2.2. Impacts on wages 54 3.5. Income and consumption 30 5.2.3. Measuring poverty pre- and post-influx 55 3.6. Health and education 30 5.2.4. Impacts of price changes alone on 56 3.7. Infrastructure 32 poverty 3.8. Trade and investment 33 5.2.5. Impacts of wage changes alone on 58 3.9. Headcount poverty 34 poverty 5.2.6. Combined impacts of wages and prices 3.10. Social protection 34 60 on poverty 5.2.7. Impacts on vulnerability 62 5.2.8. Comparing male- and female-headed 64 households I 5.2.9. Estimating the impacts on wages and CHAPTER 7 92 64 incomes using difference-in-difference Impacts on social safety nets of the Rohingya 5.2.10. Benefits from the refugee influx 65 influx in host communities 5.3. Mesoeconomic impacts: Sector-specific 7.1. Key features of the Bangladesh social 65 92 impacts protection system 5.3.1. Impacts on land and agricultural 7.2. Key features of the Cox’s Bazar district social 65 96 production protection system 5.3.2. Impacts on fishing and related activities 66 7.3. Designing social protection schemes for host 99 communities 5.3.3. Impacts on the environment 67 7.3.1. Beneficiary selection 99 5.4. Macroeconomic impacts of the Rohingya 69 refugee influx 7.3.2. NSSS schemes and their suitability for 101 the host community 5.4.1. Transactions between the refugee and 70 host economies 7.3.3. Intervention period 104 5.4.2. Using the LEWIE methodology to assess 7.4. Designing social protection schemes for 71 104 the impact of interventions Rohingya adults 5.5. Impact outlook in a situation of repatriation of 75 Rohingya refugees CHAPTER 8 106 Impacts on social cohesion CHAPTER 6 80 8.1. Impacts of the influx as perceived by host 106 Impacts on public service and public goods communities delivery of the Rohingya influx in host 8.2. Tensions related to security, crime and conflict 108 communities 6.1. Development and expenditure context in Cox’s 80 Bazar, pre-influx CHAPTER 9 110 6.2. The influx and the government response 81 A broad overview of support to host communities 6.2.1. Temporary settlement of the Rohingya 81 9.1. Programmes currently underway in the target 110 area 6.2.2. The District Administration’s response to 81 the influx 9.1.1. Livelihoods (including food security and 110 the environment) 6.3. Impacts of the influx on public service delivery 83 9.1.2. WASH and solid waste management 112 6.3.1. Impacts on governance 83 9.1.3. Health 114 6.3.2. Impacts on solid waste management and 85 WASH 9.1.4. Nutrition 114 6.3.3. Impacts on housing 87 9.1.5. Protection 114 6.3.4. Impacts on roads 87 9.1.6. Education 115 6.3.5. Impacts on business infrastructure 89 9.1.7. Disaster risk management 116 6.3.6. Impacts on health services 89 9.1.8. Communication with communities 116 6.3.7. Impacts on education services 90 9.2. Cost implications 122 6.4. Overall impacts on the poorest in the host 9.3. Current and planned public development 91 123 communities and response projects in Cox’s Bazar II CHAPTER 10 124 CHAPTER 11 154 Suggested programming for host communities Conclusions 10.1. Learning from current programming 124 10.2. Suggested programming in response to REFERENCES 156 125 socio-economic impacts 10.2.1. Widening livelihood support 125 ANNEXES programmes for the host community Annex 1. Survey respondents 165 10.2.2. Strengthening local agricultural 128 production Annex 2. Demographic data 174 10.2.3. Providing informed analysis through Annex 3. Social account matrices and their 129 178 primary data collection construction for 2017 10.3. Suggested programming in response to Annex 4. Social protection schemes in Coxes Bazar 190 130 impacts on public service delivery Annex 5. Social safety net questions in our survey 195 10.3.1. Civil administration 130 Annex 6. Social protection selection and targeting 197 10.3.2. Governance 131 Annex 7. An overview on the costs and benefits of 10.3.3. Infrastructure 132 the suggested interventions in response to socio- 204 economic and public service delivery impacts 10.3.4. Environment 134 Annex 8. Additional tables 206 10.3.5. Improving access to safe drinking water 135 10.3.6. Sanitation and waste management 136 10.3.7. Reviving educational activities in the 139 aftermath of the refugee crisis 10.3.8. Community cohesion, confidence- 140 building and conflict resolution approaches 10.3.9. Developing a risk management system 141 10.4. An initial monitoring and evaluation framework for socio-economic and public service 141 delivery programming 10.5. Suggested schemes to respond to impacts on 146 social safety nets 10.5.1. Scheme 1: UT natural resource 146 depletion scheme 10.5.2. Scheme 2: UT family income support 146 scheme 10.5.3. Other elements of Schemes 1 and 2 148 10.5.4. Scheme 3: Teknaf fishers income 148 support scheme 10.5.5. Resource requirements 150 10.5.6. Expansion of existing schemes 151 10.6. Proposed employment schemes for Rohingya 151 refugees 10.7. Capacity assessment 152 III Figures, tables and boxes Figure ES.1. Effects of wage changes on Figure 3.9. Status of nutrition, Bandarban and headcount poverty (left) and poverty gap rate 5 Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and 30 (right) (%) Bangladesh (%) Figure ES.2. Number of poor and vulnerable Figure 3.10. Literacy rates, by sex, Teknaf and 5 households in Teknaf and Ukhiya Ukhiya upazilas, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar 31 districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) Figure ES.3. Falling water tables in Ukhiya and 6 Teknaf (metres) Figure 3.11. Electricity connectivity and other sources of lighting at home, Teknaf and Ukhiya Figure ES.4. Firewood requirements under 9 upazilas, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, 32 different scenarios (thousand tonnes) Chattogram division and Bangladesh (% of Figure ES.5. Costs of LPG cooking fuel under households) 10 different scenarios (US$ million) Figure 3.12. Water and sanitation indicators, Figure ES.6. Annual water requirements for Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Bandarban and 10 33 refugees under different scenarios (litres) Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (% of households) Figure ES.7. Duration of stay and cost for the 11 refugee crisis (US$ million) Figure 3.13. Headcount poverty, Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar 34 Figure 1.1. Refugee numbers and host country 16 districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) GDP per capita Figure 4.1. The Rohingya exodus—from Rakhine Figure 3.1. Uses of land, Bandarban and 36 state to Cox’s Bazar district Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and 24 Bangladesh 2015–2016 (%) Figure 4.2. Refugee population in Teknaf, Cox’s 38 Bazar, as of 21 June 2018 (rounded) Figure 3.2. Land area, reserve forest and riverine 25 area in Cox’s Bazar district (km2) Figure 4.3.