Main Implementing Partner COVID-19 BANGLADESH SITUATION ANALYSIS CRISIS TYPE:EPIDEMIC MARCH 2021 Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes The outbreak of disease caused by the virus known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 started in China in December 2019. The virus quickly spread across the world, with the WHO Director-General declaring it as a pandemic on March 11th, 2020. The virus’s impact has been felt most acutely by countries facing humanitarian crises due to conflict and natural disasters. As humanitarian access to vulnerable communities has been restricted to basic movements only, monitoring and assessments have been interrupted. To overcome these constraints and provide the wider humanitarian community with timely and comprehensive information on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, iMMAP initiated the COVID-19 Situational Analysis project with the support of the USAID Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance (USAID BHA), aiming to provide timely solutions to the growing global needs for assessment and analysis among humanitarian stakeholders. CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary / Highlights Page4 2. Context - Economic Page9 3. COVID-19 Epidemic Overview Page11 4. COVID-19 Containment Measures Page18 5. Information and Communication for COVID-19 Page20 6. COVID-19 Impact and Humanitarian Conditions Page21 Livelihoods 22 Food Security 24 Health 27 Nutrition 29 WASH 33 Shelter 35 Education 36 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / HIGHLIGHTS Figure 1. Overall COVID-19 data for Bangladesh (Source: WHO sitreps, HEOC , Control Room, IEDCR, and DHIS2) Infection Death Tests Vaccination 595K 8,904 4.58M 5.36M COVID-19 infections COVID-19 deaths Tests conducted Vaccinated as of as of 29 March 2021 as of 29 March 2021 31 March 2021 Bangladesh as of 29 March 2021 438 10 34K 0 COVID-19 infections COVID-19 deaths Tests conducted Vaccinated as of Refugee Refugee Cox’s Bazar Bazar Cox’s Community as of 28 March 2021 as of 28 March 2021 as of 28 March 2021 31 March 2021 6,014 73 68K 74.3K Host COVID-19 infections COVID-19 deaths Tests conducted Vaccinated as of as of 28 March 2021 as of 28 March 2021 as of 28 March 2021 31 March 2021 Cox’s Bazar Bazar Cox’s Community Since March 2021, Bangladesh has been experiencing a Bazar, campaigns for the Rohingya refugees are planned surge in COVID-19 cases. After months of gradual decrease, to start in the coming weeks. However, plans are expected cases have increased by 350% in March compared to the to face some setbacks due to the massive fire in camps 8E, previous month. Deaths also climbed to 496 from 281 8W, 9, and 10 which destroyed several vaccination points. in February. In response to the new COVID-19 wave, the government has imposed new regulations and movement A massive fire broke out on 22 March in the Kutupalong restrictions on the public. mega camp, affecting camps 8E, 8W, 9, and 10. The fire left thousands of people temporarily displaced after damaging The national vaccination campaign is facing some more than 10,000 shelters. The fire also destroyed shops, challenges due to a recent temporary halt on exports by nutrition and distribution centers, learning centers, and the Indian government of the COVIDShield, the Oxford- health and WASH infrastructure. The impact of the fire is Astrazeneca vaccine produced at Serum Institute of India. covered by the findings from theInter-Sector Coordination As of 31 March, the health authorities have administered Group (ISCG) Rapid Joint Needs Assessment conducted more than five million first doses of the vaccine. immediately following the fire. Following the national trend, COVID-19 cases in Cox’s Bazar The concern over financial burden has increased among are increasing, especially among the host community, the Rohingya community in the first two months of 2021. with Cox’s Bazar being one of the 31 most affected Despite continued humanitarian assistance to refugee zones in the country. While vaccination campaigns for households largely at the same scale prior to COVID-19, international humanitarian workers have started in Cox’s vulnerability of the Rohingya refugees, including 4 // 48 Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes economic vulnerability, and adoption of high risks coping the most reported challenges for the host community. For mechanisms, has increased and is likely to be increasing the refugee community, existing problems and barriers their financial concerns. before the pandemic add further challenges for students. Schools and other learning facilities continue to be closed. Protection risks remain high, as result of the massive A recent assessment of the Education Sector for the fire which damaged a substantial number of child and Rohingya and the host communities by REACH highlights women-friendly spaces in the camps, and left many women the many challenges in the availability and accessibility and children sleeping in unsafe areas and some children of distance learning for students from both communities. unaccompanied. The continued school closures also Lack of electricity, internet, and technological devices expose children to increasing risks such as child labor, contributes to the inability of students to access quality child marriage, kidnapping, and human trafficking. education. However, financial constraints remain one of Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes 5 // 48 Figure 2. Timeline of Major Events 6 // 48 Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes 7 // 48 Figure 3. Refugee population by camp as of 31st March 2021 (Source: UNHCR 31/03/2021 ) Raja Palong Tota euee ouation 884,04 Individuals Camp 1E Camp 1W 189,660 Families Kutupalong utuaon Camp 4 Camp 3 Camp RC 2W Camp 2E 17,024 Camp 4 utuaon Bauai Camp 6 Extension Camp 5 Camp 7 ansion ite ams Camp 20 Camp 17 Camp 8W 603,315 Extension Camp 8E Bangladesh Cox’s Bazar Camp 20 Camp 9 Camp 18 Camp 10 Camp 19 Camp 11 Camp 12 Camp 13 Myanmar am Camp 14 105,578 Camp 25 Nhilla Camp 15 Palong Khali am Camp 25 Camp 16 7,778 am Camp 24 26,717 Naf Choukhali River Camp Refugee Population 26 0 - 17,002 aaara Camp 21 Nayapara 17,003 - 26,474 am 22,578 RC 26,475 - 32,815 16,995 32,816 - 50,869 am Myanmar 40,661 Camp 27 Banaes am 1 0.5 0 1 Km 15,507 Whykong Teknaf am Jalia Palong 6,559 am Camp 22 Nhilla 21,329 Bay of Camp 23 Creation date: 27 April 2021 Data Sources: UNHCR Refugee Population data as of February 28, 2021 Bengal Projection: BUTM The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply Baharchhara official endorsement or acceptance by iMMAP 8 // 48 Better Data Better Decisions Better Outcomes CONTEXT - ECONOMIC Socio-economic Impact and Poverty Level in Bangladesh average Bangladeshi student will face a reduction in annual earnings of between $198 to $335 once they enter the About a year after the first cases of COVID-19 emerged labour market, which represents between 4% and 6.8% of in Bangladesh, the country is yet on the brink of another annual income. In the intermediate scenario, aggregating socio-economic disruption due to another lockdown for all students, this would cost the Bangladesh economy to following the fresh surge of cases and fatalities. The lose $89 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually. pandemic has already unsettled Bangladesh’s long- standing macroeconomic stability. Movement restrictions Government Fiscal and Monetary Policy are expected to once again disrupt economic activity. Fiscal risks include a shortfall in international support for The government has been implementing various short, COVID-19 vaccination programs, cost overruns on major mid-term, and long-term plans giving priority to attaining infrastructure projects, and delays in tax reforms. In the high growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability. To event that external financing for the Rohingya response offset the shock from COVID-19, the government has thus declines, additional public expenditure may be required. rolled out some 23 stimulus packages involving a total In turn, higher borrowing from domestic banks could sum of BDT. 1,24,053 crore [$15.5 billion], amounting constrain the availability of credit to the private sector. to 4.4% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product Challenges in the implementation of credit and social (GDP) (Dhaka Tribune 20/01/2021). The FY21 Budget protection programs under the government’s economic includes higher allocations for health, agriculture, and stimulus program could also undermine the recovery. social safety net programs, although effective targeting External risks stemming from the fragile global economic remains a challenge. As a precautionary measure, recovery, include weak demand for ready-made garments the government has decided that 25% of budgetary (RMG) products and reduced employment of Bangladesh’s allocations for development projects will be placed on overseas workforce. Low public debt levels and a low risk hold, affecting low-priority projects. In January 2021, of public debt distress provide some buffer, although risks the government increased the COVID-19 Emergency remain tilted to the downside. COVID-19 has intensified Response and Pandemic Preparedness Project costs by the needs of vulnerable groups, including informal and BDT. 56.6 billion [$666.7 million] mostly reflecting the returning overseas migrant workers. The pandemic- procurement, preservation, and distribution of vaccines. related economic effects threaten to undermine years The government has announced two additional stimulus of steady progress in poverty reduction in Bangladesh packages BDT. 15 billion [$176.7 million] for the micro and (World Bank 12/04/2021). cottage entrepreneurs and BDT. 12 billion [$141.36 million] cash assistance program for the disadvantaged elderly The government’s Report on SDG’s in June 2020 showed people, widows, and female divorcees (IMF 06/04/2021).