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Real Estate Market Overview Real Estate Market Overview Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 2018 Real Estate Market Overview Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 2018 Real Estate is a Location Business. Introduction That’s why we do business where you do business. We are delighted to present the 15th Colliers International Real Estate Market Overview covering market trends and forecasts, the latest statistics and market insights in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The economy of all three Baltic countries grew last year and the positive trend continues in 2018. Markets are under development and we expect to see approx. 950,000 sqm of new supply of different types of commercial space in the upcoming years in Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn. Strong supply of offices is expected in the two biggest Lithuanian cities (Vilnius and Kaunas), while Riga and Tallinn will experience their historically biggest additions in the shopping centre segment (more than 260,000 sqm) by the end of 2019. Total investment volume did not reach the 1 bn EUR level as expected a year ago and even decreased by 23 per cent compared to 2016. The result is explained by lack of supply of high quality and large-scale cashflow products, rather than lack of demand. The biggest gap was in Riga, although the shortage in the investment product pipeline can be explained by scarce development activity in the last 5 years compared to other Baltic capital cities. Active investors continue to stay well capitalized, loan interest is low and availability of financing is in general still good. Prime yields in core segments are constantly under pressure, but notable additional yield compression in 2018, especially in Tallinn, is unlikely. Forecasts for all three Baltic States stay positive and we look forward to cooperating and serving your needs in the region. When you partner with Colliers professionals, you tap into an integrated team of experts. Together, we offer insight from 396 world markets, eight service lines and countless specializations, all with a common goal - Sincerely, accelerating your success. Deniss Kairans Table of Contents Economic Overview Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 6 Investment Market Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 12 Office Market Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 20 Estonia 22 Latvia 28 Lithuania 34 Retail Market Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 40 Estonia 42 Latvia 48 Lithuania 54 Industrial Market Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 60 Estonia 62 Latvia 68 Lithuania 74 Hotel Market Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 80 Estonia 82 Latvia 88 Lithuania 94 Real Estate Market Overview | 2018 | Colliers International 5 Reykjavík Iceland Finland Norway Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Tallinn 1,318,705 448,746 Economic 1,221 EUR Sweden Estonia 5.8% Russia Overview Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania 1,950,116 Latvia 641,423 926 EUR Riga 8.8% Denmark Moscow Copenhagen Lithuania Vilnius 2,810,118 536,692 GDP Growth, % yoy 840 EUR 5% 7.1%Minsk 4.9% Dublin 4% 4.5% 3.8% Great 3% Ireland 2% Population (country), residents Belarus Population (capital city), residents Britain 1% Berlin Average monthly gross earnings Amsterdam 0% Warsaw Estonia Latvia Lithuania Annual unemployment rate Netherlands London Poland Germany Real Estate Market Overview | 2018 | Colliers International 7 Brussels Prague Belgium Kiev Czech Republic Paris Luxembourg Ukraine Slovakia Vienna Bratislava Austria Budapest Moldova France Vaduz Hungary Switzerland Romania Chișinău Ljubljana Zagreb Croatia Belgrade Bucharest Bosnia & Serbia San Marino Herz. Monaco Sarajevo Andorra Italy Pristina Montenegro Soa Kosovo Bulgaria Rome Podgorica Skopje Georgia Tbilisi Tirana Macedonia Portugal Madrid Albania Yerevan Azerbaijan Greece Armenia Baku Spain Ankara Lisbon Athens Turkey Gibraltar Valletta Nicosia Cyprus Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania Investment Market Economic Overview Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania General Overview Increasing demand in Estonia’s main In 2017, development of the Lithuanian In 2017, inflation (HICP): in Estonia stood In 2017, average monthly gross earnings export markets had a positive impact economy accelerated on the back of at 3.7 per cent compared with 0.8 per were EUR 1,221 in Estonia, and compared on economic growth in 2017, with value added generated by the service cent in 2016; in Latvia inflation increased to 2016, grew by 6.5 per cent. Compared Estonian GDP increasing 4.9 per sector and industry. Improvements in to 2.9 per cent in 2017 from 0.1 per cent to 2016, gross earnings in 2017 rose by cent y-o-y, mainly driven by a rise in the international economic environment in 2016; in Lithuania inflation rose to 3.7 7.9 per cent in Latvia - from EUR 859 to value-added in construction, information boosted trade, resulting in export volume per cent in 2017 from 0.7 per cent in EUR 926. In 2017, average monthly gross and communication, and professional, recovery. This allowed Lithuania to 2016. Inflation in Lithuania and Estonia earnings stood at EUR 840 in Lithuania, scientific and technical activities as well achieve GDP growth of 3.8 per cent y-o-y, was highest among the EU Member increasing by 8.5 per cent y-o-y. Wage as transportation and manufacturing. compared to 2.3 per cent y-o-y in 2016. States in 2017. The greatest influence on growth was mainly reinforced by a At the same time, trade, which had driven the consumer price index was exerted shrinking labour pool, leading to stronger economic growth in 2016, became the by prices of food and non-alcoholic competition over talent. biggest drawback to the growth in the The labour market in the Baltic States beverages in all three Baltic States. second half of 2017. experienced further positive developments during 2017. The annual average In 2017, production of industrial unemployment rate (5.8 per cent) in Turnover of retail trade enterprises enterprises rose by 7.1 per cent in In 2017, economic growth in Latvia Estonia in 2017 was lower than in 2016 reached EUR 6.7 billion in 2017 in Estonia, Lithuania and 7.7 per cent in Estonia, experienced acceleration compared (6.8 per cent), while the labour force equivalent to growth of 1.5 per cent at compared to 2016, while industrial to previous years, mainly driven participation rate reached its highest level constant prices compared with 2016, production output in Latvia increased by improvements in the external for 20 years. In 2017, the unemployment according to calendar-adjusted data. In by 8.5 per cent during the same period environment, more intensive usage of rate accounted for 8.8 per cent in Latvia, Latvia, turnover of retail trade enterprises (according to calendar-adjusted data at EU funding, plus increase in wages and or 0.9 percentage points less than in totalled EUR 7.2 billion, growing 4.2 per constant prices). household consumption. According to 2016 and 7.1 per cent in Lithuania (0.8 cent y-o-y at constant prices. In 2017, flash estimates, GDP increased by percentage points less than in 2016). turnover of retail trade enterprises in 4.5 per cent y-o-y in Latvia as practically Lithuania amounted to EUR 10.4 billion, all economic sectors experienced growth. growing 4.6 per cent y-o-y at constant prices. 8 Real Estate Market Overview | 2018 | Colliers International Real Estate Market Overview | 2018 | Colliers International 9 Estonia I Latvia I Lithuania Economic Overview Key Economic Indicators Trends and Forecasts ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA INDICATORS 2016 2017 2018F 2016 2017 2018F 2016 2017 2018F GDP current prices, EUR billion 21.1 23.0 24.7 24.9 26.7 28.4 38.7 41.8 44.7 Due to gradual improvement in foreign demand, Estonian economic growth is expected GDP growth (real), % yoy 2.1 4.9 3.5 2.1 4.5 4.1 2.3 3.8 2.8 to accelerate up to 4.2 per cent in 2018. According to available forecasts, GDP growth Industrial production, % yoy 2.4 7.7 4.4 4.9 8.5 6.5 2.8 7.2 4.5 in 2018 will remain high in Latvia, but will slow down slightly compared to 2017. Unemployment rate, % avg 6.8 5.8 6.8 9.6 8.8 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.8 Recovering investment, private consumption and global trade will be the key drivers Average monthly gross wages growth, % 7.6 6.5 6.2 5.1 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.5 6.1 Total central government debt, % of GDP 9.4 9.1 8.7 40.6 39.1 35.6 40.2 41.2f 36.5 behind economic growth in Lithuania, with GDP growth of 2.8 per cent expected in HICP, % yoy 0.8 3.7 3.5 0.1 2.9 2.8 0.7 3.7 2.6 2018. CPI, % yoy 0.1 3.4 3.1 0.1 2.8 2.8 0.9 3.7 3.3 Fiscal deficit, % of GDP -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 0.3 -0.4 0.5 Export, EUR billion 11.9 12.8 13.2 10.4 11.4 n/a 22.6 26.4 28.5 Consumer price growth in 2018 is expected to exceed the 2.5 per cent level in all three Import, EUR billion 13.5 14.7 15.3 12.5 14.0 n/a 24.7 28.8 31.6 Current account, % of GDP 1.9 2.1 0.3 1.4 -1.4 1.6 -1.1 0.9 -1.5 Baltic States, driven by the rise in various excise duties and the tight labour market (fast FDI, EUR billion 0.83 0.82 0.74 -0.1 1.0 n/a 0.85 0.63f 0.65 wage growth).
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