DOCSLIB.ORG

Flood Forecasting and Management in Pakistan

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Flood Forecasting and Management in Pakistan Water Resources Systems—Hydrological Risk, Management and Development (Proceedings of symposium 90 IIS02b held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo, July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 281, 2003. Flood forecasting and management in Pakistan SHAUKAT ALI AWAN Flood Forecasting Division, 46 Jail Road, Lahore 54000, Pakistan [email protected] Abstract Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Pakistan: (i) meteorological situation for Category-I floods, the seasonal low is a semi-permanent weather system situated over south­ eastern Baluchistan, southwestern Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh, which intensifies and causes moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to the upper catchments of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers; (ii) the situation for the more severe Category-II and Category-Ill floods, is linked with the monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in the Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in a general west/northwesterly direction to arrive over Rajasthan or the adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is a multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of a flood forecast/warning which is prepared by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurements using radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall-runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population. Key words Category I, II and III floods; monsoon low/depression; Pakistan INTRODUCTION Floods in Pakistan are mainly caused by the heavy monsoon rains during the summer monsoon period, from July to September (Thompson & Perry, 1997). Meteorologically there are two situations which cause flood producing rains in the upper catchments of the rivers (National Engineering Services, 1998). These two situations are related to different conditions of intensity and movement of lows/depressions, and produce three categories of floods: (i) Meteorological situation for Category-I floods: the seasonal low is a semi-permanent weather system situated over southeastern Baluchistan, south­ western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh, which gets intensified (due to a westerly wave) causing moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to the upper catchments of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers resulting in heavy rainfalls along windward slopes of the mountain ranges due to orographic uplift of the moist air masses, (ii) Situation for Category-II and Category-III floods: this generating situation is linked with monsoon lows/depressions. Such monsoon systems originate in the Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in a west/northwesterly direction and arrive over Rajasthan or any of the neighbouring states of India. After the monsoon, the depression may take any of following three courses: (a) continue moving straight west causing heavy widespread rains over Sindh/Baluchistan, in which case no river flooding will occur; (b) turn to the northeast towards the upper catchments of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab Flood forecasting and management in Pakistan 91 rivers causing extremely heavy rainfall and consequently floods, first across the border in India and then (within hours) at the Rim Stations in Pakistan. This is a Category-II flood situation; (c) continue moving in a northerly direction under the effect of strong westerly winds over the plains of the Lahore/Gujranwala Divisions, to finally end up over the Rawalpindi/Hazara Divisions. The upper catchments of the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers then come under its influence. The flood forecasting system in Pakistan comprises three components: (i) a meteorological component which relates to the forecasting of precipitation; (ii) a hydrometeorological component which relates to the generation of a flood wave at the Rim Stations; and (iii) a hydrological component which relates to routing the flood wave and forecasting flood peaks at downstream sites. METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT The meteorological component is an extremely important part of any flood forecasting system, especially in tropical countries where floods are caused by rainfall only (with little or no snowmelt contribution). Flood producing rain is caused by the condensation of the moisture-laden monsoon air mass due to convection in a low-pressure area or due to orographic lifting across a mountain barrier, or both. The resulting super saturation of the cloud mass triggers precipitation, which depends upon the continued availability of a moist airflow into the precipitation region. In Pakistan, minor floods are caused by the penetration of the southeast and southwest monsoon currents, along the region of the active monsoon which includes the upper catchment of the Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. Major floods are, however, caused by the monsoon lows/depressions which have a long track stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the catchment areas of the rivers. The above two meteorological situations need to be closely monitored in order to develop the capability of predicting the timing and amount of the flood producing rains. The following meteorological methods are used for this purpose. Meteorological charts/maps As members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) most countries of the world are committed to observe, collect and transmit meteorological data from their respective countries in accordance with the schedule laid down by WMO. The schedule provides that, commencing from 00:00 h GMT, the meteorological data at all surface observatories is observed every three hours, while that of the upper air observatories is recorded at a six-hourly interval. This makes it possible for Pakistan to obtain the much needed meteorological data which includes such elements as pressure, temperature, rainfall, clouds, surface and upper winds, etc. This data, along with that from Pakistan and the other surrounding countries is then plotted on the meteorological surface and upper air charts and analysed to identify the lows/depressions, etc., or the extent, and intensity of the monsoon incursion into the catchment areas. This, even though an age-old conventional process, is still the most important means of meteorological forecasting. 92 Shaukat Ali Awan The depth of the low pressure for example, is an important indicator of the intensity and duration of the associated rainfall. In addition to the locally prepared meteorological maps/charts, those prepared at Tashkent (one of the WMO centres), and that prepared at Reading, UK (by the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting) are also received as and when needed. A number of meteorological studies aimed at improving the methods of predicting rainfall from monsoon lows, and predicting the conditions of recurrence of monsoon lows in the catchment areas are in progress, while some are planned for the future. Weather satellite images There are two types of meteorological satellites in use for receiving the cloud pictures: the geostationary and the polar orbiting satellites (Donald, 2000). The geostationary satellites are more useful since they provide pictures at half hourly intervals (as they remain static relative to the earth and are thus continuously monitoring a very large region of the Earth under them). Perhaps Pakistan is the only country in the world today having no access to a geostationary satellites and thus has to rely on the use of polar orbiting satellites only. The orbits of polar orbiting satellites are continuously shifting with respect to the Earth. The amount of shift depends upon the time taken by the satellite in circling the Earth which is related to the orbital height. Presently, the two satellites in use are the NOAA and NOAA 14 satellites, which are orbiting the earth at a height of approx­ imately 850 km and thus take about 100 minutes to circle round the earth. This means that the Earth shifts by about 25.4 degrees eastward at about 25.4 degrees longitude, between each orbit, so progressively bringing new regions of the Earth under it. Polar orbiting satellites therefore have the advantage that a single satellite is able to cover all points on Earth. On the other hand, however, it has the disadvantage that long intervals of time occur between two passes over a particular location, providing only two to four usable passes in 24 hours. The two polar orbiting satellites together provide only two to six usable passes every 24 hours. Fortunately, the long awaited Russian satellite is about to be launched above the Indian Ocean at longitude 76°. This will be a geostationary satellite and will provide cloud pictures at half hourly intervals. The visible and the infrared (thermal) bands will be received to identify weather systems such as monsoon lows/depressions and the areas of extensive convective build-up within the monsoon air mass. It will be an excellent device for forecasting torrential rainfall and associated floods, particularly in connection with radar information. Use of weather radars in flood forecasting Radar is a remote sensing device capable of monitoring falling precipitation. It has a meteorological range up to which it can detect the existence of precipitation. Radar has a very special use in the context of flood forecasting in Pakistan in view of the fact that the upper catchments of most rivers lie across the border and are thus physically inaccessible for the installation of ground-based raingauges. Access to real-time Flood forecasting and management in Pakistan 93 ÂDAR Ir.liiiimlfirl ! Y.Kh.m I H r.H.n.hi m * " ": .Hahore- ÉêT. ..... t . '". " : Fig. 1 Areal coverage of weather radar network in Pakistan. rainfall data from the upper catchments in India is also not possible. The only alternative in this situation is to remotely sense the falling precipitation using quantitative precipitation radar. Consequently, a C-band 5.32-cm wavelength QPM radar was installed at Sialkot in 1977.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • NW-49 Final FSR Jhelum Report
    FEASIBILITY REPORT ON DETAILED HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEY IN JHELUM RIVER (110.27 KM) FROM WULAR LAKE TO DANGPORA VILLAGE (REGION-I, NW- 49) Submitted To INLAND WATERWAYS AUTHORITY OF INDIA A-13, Sector-1, NOIDA DIST-Gautam Buddha Nagar UTTAR PRADESH PIN- 201 301(UP) Email: [email protected] Web: www.iwai.nic.in Submitted By TOJO VIKAS INTERNATIONAL PVT LTD Plot No.4, 1st Floor, Mehrauli Road New Delhi-110074, Tel: +91-11-46739200/217 Fax: +91-11-26852633 Email: [email protected] Web: www.tojovikas.com VOLUME – I MAIN REPORT First Survey: 9 Jan to 5 May 2017 Revised Survey: 2 Dec 2017 to 25 Dec 2017 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Tojo Vikas International Pvt. Ltd. (TVIPL) express their gratitude to Mrs. Nutan Guha Biswas, IAS, Chairperson, for sparing their valuable time and guidance for completing this Project of "Detailed Hydrographic Survey in Ravi River." We would also like to thanks Shri Pravir Pandey, Vice-Chairman (IA&AS), Shri Alok Ranjan, Member (Finance) and Shri S.K.Gangwar, Member (Technical). TVIPL would also like to thank Irrigation & Flood control Department of Srinagar for providing the data utilised in this report. TVIPL wishes to express their gratitude to Shri S.V.K. Reddy Chief Engineer-I, Cdr. P.K. Srivastava, Ex-Hydrographic Chief, IWAI for his guidance and inspiration for this project. We would also like to thank Shri Rajiv Singhal, A.H.S. for invaluable support and suggestions provided throughout the survey period. TVIPL is pleased to place on record their sincere thanks to other staff and officers of IWAI for their excellent support and co-operation through out the survey period.
    [Show full text]
  • Pir Panjal Regional Festival Integrating the Isolated Border Districts in J&K & Building Peace from Below*
    No 142 IPCS ISSUE BRIEF No 142 APRIL 2010 APRIL 2010 Building Peace & Countering Radicalization Pir Panjal Regional Festival Integrating the Isolated Border Districts in J&K & Building Peace from Below* D. Suba Chandran Deputy Director, IPCS, New Delhi This essay focus on two districts in the Jammu sub region of J&K—Rajouri and Poonch, along the Pir Panjal range of the outer Himalayas. The primary objective is to highlight the conflict transformation (both positive and negative) in this region during the recent years; to explore the opportunities of an Pir Panjal festival bringing the various communities together and build peace from below; integrate the border districts with the national mainstream; and improve the physical and psychological connectivity of the Pir Panjal region with the rest and remove the feeling of physical isolation. Idea of using a festival to promote tourism in J&K is not a new one; those who have witnessed the Ladakh festival, in all its colorful glory and culturally rich historical past, would agree how it has brought the region, its people and culture to the limelight. Of course, there are other places – from Dal lake to Gulmarg and from Bhaderwah to Basohli, which can easily boast the same – in terms of their rich culture, colorful people and beautiful places. The irony of J&K, however has been - there are numerous such regions in J&K, unfortunately remaining in the periphery, physically isolated and psychologically looking inward. Ladakh festival, now celebrated during August every year, attracts global attention and tourists who visit the land of moon, as it is popularly referred, to enjoy the culture, people and places.
    [Show full text]
  • Listen to the River
    2 - LESSONS FROM A GLOBAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW SUCCESS STORIES 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Citation: Harwood, A., Johnson, S., Richter, B., Locke, A., Yu, X. and Tickner, D. 2017. We would like to thank the following participants who generously donated their time to participate in Listen to the river: Lessons from a global review of environmental flow success stories, the oral case study interviews and provide written comments on the interview notes and case study WWF-UK, Woking, UK synopses. Their viewpoints and input are fundamental to this report and we are grateful for their time and expertise: Eric Krueger (The Nature Conservancy), Harry Shelley (Savannah River Basin Advisory Council), ABOUT WWF Stan Simpson (United States Army Corps of Engineers), Andy Warner (CDM Smith, formerly The At WWF, we believe that a living planet – from the global climate to local environments – is vital Nature Conservancy), Ian Atkinson (International River Foundation, formerly Nature Foundation not only for wildlife, but also as the source of our food, clean water, health and livelihoods. And as South Australia), Andrew Beal (Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, South a source of inspiration, now and for future generations. So we’re tackling critical environmental Australia), John Foster (Commonwealth Environmental Water Office, Australia), Tom Rooney challenges and striving to build a world with a future where people and nature thrive. (Waterfind Australia and Healthy Rivers Australia), Hilton Taylor (Commonwealth Environmental Water Office, Australia), Jin Chen (Changjiang Water Resources Commission), Hai Wang (China To do this, we’re educating, inspiring, influencing and engaging the public, policy-makers, business Three Gorges Corporation), the Office of Fisheries Law Enforcement for the Yangtze River Basin leaders and influencers.
    [Show full text]
  • Directory of Lakes and Waterbodies of J&K State Using Remote Sensing
    DIRECTORY OF LAKES AND WATERBODIES OF J&K STATE Using Remote Sensing & GIS Technology Dr.Hanifa Nasim Dr.Tasneem Keng DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND REMOTE SENSING SDA COLONY BEMINA SRINAGAR / PARYAWARAN BHAWAN, FOREST COMPLEX, JAMMU Email: [email protected]. DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Title of the project DIRECTORY OF LAKES AND WATERBODIES OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR Funding Agency GOVERNMENT OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR. Originating Unit Department of Environment and Remote Sensing, J&K Govt. Project Co-ordinator Director Department of Environment and Remote Sensing,J&K Govt. Principal Investigator Dr. Hanifa Nasim Jr. Scientist Department of Environment and Remote Sensing, J&K Govt. Co-Investigator Dr. Tasneem Keng Scientific Asst. Department of Environment and Remote Sensing, J&K Govt. Document Type Restricted Project Team Mudasir Ashraf Dar. Maheen Khan. Aijaz Misger. Ikhlaq Ahmad. Documentation Mudasir Ashraf. Acknowledgement Lakes and Water bodies are one of the most important natural resources of our State. Apart from being most valuable natural habitat for number of flora and fauna, these lakes and Water bodies are the life line for number of communities of our state. No systematic scientific study for monitoring and planning of these lakes and water bodies was carried out and more than 90%of our lakes and water bodies are till date neglected altogether. The department realized the need of creating the first hand information long back in 1998 and prepared the Directory of lakes and water bodies using Survey of India Topographical Maps on 1:50,000.With the advent of satellite technology the study of these lakes and water bodies has become easier and the task of creating of information pertaining to these lakes and water bodies using latest high resolution data along with Survey of India Topographical Maps and other secondary information available with limited field checks/ground truthing has been carried out to provide latest information regarding the status of these lakes and water bodies.
    [Show full text]
  • War in the Western Theatre
    SCHOLAR WARRIOR War in the Western Theatre DHruv C KatocH Introduction On 3 December 1971, at about 1730h, the Pakistan Air Force crossed Indian air space and launched a series of air attacks on Indian airfields at Amritsar, Awantipur, Faridkot, Pathankot and Srinagar. These attacks did little in terms of inflicting serious damage on Indian Air Force capabilities, but with these attacks, Pakistan had started the war against India. It was Pakistan’s strategy to launch an offensive in the West, should India invade the East Wing. The Pakistani plan had two ingredients. First, formations other than those in reserve were to launch limited offensives. Second, a major counter offensive was to be launched concurrently into India. The plan was altered by Yahya Khan, who ordered that the counter offensive should take place after local operations had secured ground. This change ostensibly was made due to shortage of equipment and the deployment of a large part of the army in its East Wing. The Indian strategy had its war aims focused on the East. Strategic defence was to be maintained in the West and a counter offensive would only be launched after Pakistan initiated hostilities. This served the larger strategic purpose of ensuring that India was not accused of aggression which could have had a negative effect on its operations in the East Wing. The initiative in the West thus lay in the hands of the Pakistan military. Force Levels Pakistan In the West, Pakistan had three corps and three infantry divisions commanded directly by General Head Quarter (GHQ). The orbat was as under: l GHQ SCHOLAR WARRIOR ä SPRING 2012 ä vii SCHOLAR WARRIOR m 12 Infantry Division.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Flood Report-2014
    GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES ANNUAL FLOOD REPORT 2018 OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ENGINEERING ADVISOR & CHAIRMAN FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION ISLAMABAD Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources 1 ANNUAL FLOOD REPORT-2018 Heavy Rains in Lahore (July 2018) Heavy Rains in Karachi OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ENGINEERING ADVISOR/ CHAIRMAN FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION ISLAMABAD Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Water Resources 2 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary 5-10 Acknowledgement 11 Chapter 1 Floods in General Perspective 12 1.1 Flood problem in perspective 13 1.2 Pakistan’s Flood Context 13 1.3 Flood control objective and need 14 1.4 Water resources in Pakistan 16 1.5 Irrigation network of Pakistan 16 1.6 Flood protection facilities in Pakistan 17 1.7 Impacts of global warming and climate change on flood 20 management 1.8 Historical flood events in Pakistan 20 1.9 Integrated approach in flood management 21 1.10 Flood and the development process 22 1.11 Traditional flood management options 23 1.12 The challenges of flood management 24 1.13 Impact of rapid urbanization on flood management 25 1.14 Climate variability and change 26 Chapter 2 Federal Flood Commission 27 2.1 Historic background 28 2.2 Functions of Federal Flood Commission (FFC) 28 2.3 Achievements of FFC 28 2.4 National Flood Protection Plan –IV (NFPP-IV) 31 2.5 Normal/Emergent Flood Programme (2018-19) 33 2.6 Summary of investment on flood protection works through GOP 34 grants/Foreign Aid Chapter 3 Flood Management Mechanism 35 3.1 Organizations involved
    [Show full text]
  • Unit–3 CLIMATE
    B.S/B.Ed./MSC Level Geography of Pakistan-I CODE No: 4655 / 8663 / 9351 Department of Pakistan Studies Faculty of Social Sciences & Humanities ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD i (All rights Reserved with the Publisher) First Printing ................................ 2019 Quantity ....................................... 5000 Printer........................................... Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad Publisher ...................................... Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad ii COURSE TEAM Chairperson: Prof. Dr. Samina Awan Course Coordinator: Dr. Khalid Mahmood Writers: Mr. Muhammad Javed Mr. Arshad Iqbal Wani Mrs. Zunaira Majeed Mr. Muhammad Haroon Mrs. Iram Zaman Mrs. Seema Saleem Mr. Usman Latif Reviewer: Dr. Khalid Mahmood Editor: Fazal Karim Layout Design: Asrar ul Haque Malik iii FOREWORD Allama Iqbal Open University has the honour to present various programmes from Metric to PhD. level for those who are deprived from regular education due to their compulsions. It is obviously your own institution that provides you the education facility at your door step. Allama Iqbal Open University is the unique in Pakistan which provides education to all citizens; without any discrimination of age, gender, ethnicity, region or religion. It is no doubt that our beloved country had been facing numerous issues since its creation. The initial days were very tough for the newly state but with the blessings of Allah Almighty, it made progress day by day. However, due to conspiracy of external powers and some weaknesses of our leaders, the internal situation of East Pakistan rapidly changed and the end was painful as we lost not only the land but also our Bengali brothers. After the war of 1971, the people and leaders of Pakistan were forced to rethink the future of the remaining country.
    [Show full text]
  • Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project Project
    Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project (RRP PAK 49038) Project Administration Manual Project Number: 49038-001 Loan and Technical Assistance Numbers: {LXXXX; TAXXXX} June 2015 Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project i Project Administration Manual Purpose and Process The project administration manual (PAM) describes the essential administrative and management requirements to implement the project on time, within budget, and in accordance with Government and Asian Development Bank (ADB) policies and procedures. The PAM should include references to all available templates and instructions either through linkages to relevant URLs or directly incorporated in the PAM. The executing and implementing agencies are wholly responsible for the implementation of ADB financed projects, as agreed jointly between the borrower and ADB, and in accordance with Government and ADB’s policies and procedures. ADB staff is responsible to support implementation including compliance by executing and implementing agencies of their obligations and responsibilities for project implementation in accordance with ADB’s policies and procedures. At Loan Negotiations the borrower and ADB shall agree to the PAM and ensure consistency with the Loan and Project agreements. Such agreement shall be reflected in the minutes of the Loan Negotiations. In the event of any discrepancy or contradiction between the PAM and the Loan and Project Agreements, the provisions of the Loan and Project Agreements shall prevail. After ADB Board approval of the project's report and recommendations of the President (RRP) changes in implementation arrangements are subject to agreement and approval pursuant to relevant Government and ADB administrative procedures (including the Project Administration Instructions) and upon such approval they will be subsequently incorporated in the PAM.
    [Show full text]
  • Table of Contents
    Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) Draft Pakistan Hydro-Meteorological and DRM Services Project Pakistan Meteorological Department National Disaster Management Authority Pakistan Hydro-Meteorological and DRM Services Project Executive Summary Background Climate change is expected to have an adverse impact on Pakistan, as it ranks 7th on the climate risk index. It continues to be one of the most flood-prone countries in the South Asia Region (SAR); suffering US$18 billion in losses between 2005 and 2014 (US$10.5 billion from the 2010 floods alone), equivalent to around 6% of the federal budget. Hydromet hazards have been coupled with rapid population growth and uncontrolled urbanization, leading to a disproportionate and growing impact on the poor. To build on recent development gains, increase economic productivity, and improve climate resilience, it will be critical to improve the quality and accessibility of weather, water, and climate information services. Climate-resilient development requires stronger institutions and a higher level of observation, forecasting, and service delivery capacity; these could make a significant contribution to safety, security, and economic well-being. The Pakistan Hydro- Meteorological and DRM Services Project (PHDSP) expects to improve hydro- meteorological information and services, strengthen forecasting and early warning systems, and improve dissemination of meteorological and hydrological forecasts, warnings and advisory information to stakeholders and end-users and strengthen the existing disaster risk management (DRM) capacity and services of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). Project Description The project has three main components and will be implemented over a period of five years. Component 1: Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Services The objective of this component is to improve the capability and thereby performance of the PMD to understand and make use of meteorological and hydrological information for decision making.
    [Show full text]
  • Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan
    Faculty of Environmental Sciences Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan DISSERTATION To obtain the academic degree Doctor of Egineering (Dr. – Ing.) Submitted to the Faculty of Environmental Sciences Technische Universität Dresden, Germany by Naeem Saddique, M.Sc. born on December 20, 1986 in Kasur, Pakistan Reviewers: Prof. Dr. Christian Bernhofer TU Dresden, Institut für Hydrologie und Meteorologie, Professur für Meteorologie Prof. Dr. Rudolf Liedl TU Dresden, Institut für Grundwasserwirtschaft Prof. (Associate) Dr. Muhammad Adnan Shahid University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Date of defense: 03.02.2021 Erklärung des Promovenden Die Übereinstimmung dieses Exemplars mit dem Original der Dissertation zum Thema: “Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan” wird hiermit bestätigt. Ort, Datum Unterschrift (Naeem Saddique) II Abstract Climate change and land use transition are the main drivers of watershed hydrological processes. The main objective of this study was to assess the hydrometeorological responses to climate and land use changes in the Jhelum River Basin (JRB), Pakistan. The development of proper climate information is a challenging task. To date, Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used for climate projections. However, these models have a coarse spatial resolution, which is not suitable for regional/local impact studies such as water resources management in the JRB. Therefore, different downscaling methods and techniques have been developed as means of bridging the gap between the coarse resolution global models projection and the spatial resolution required for hydrological impact studies. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) are selected in this study for downscaling of temperature and precipitation.
    [Show full text]
  • Gulpur Hydropower Project, Pakistan
    CASE STUDY: GULPUR HYDROPOWER PROJECT, PAKISTAN Pablo Cardinale Kate Lazarus Leeanne Alonso GULPUR HPP (PAKISTAN) 102 MW greenfield run-of-the-river HP project in the Kolti District, Eastern Pakistan / Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) region. Main construction to begun on late 2015 Components: • dam 66 m high. • @ 1000 meter diversion tunnels. • power house and a switch yard. • 700 meters dewatered stretch. • True run-of-river, no peak generation • No new access roads. • Existing transmission line. IFC’s proposed US$ 50 million A-Loan (15% total project cost of US$332 million) and mobilization of up to US$93 million. Co-financed with ADB, CDC, MIGA and others 1/24/2018 Critical Habitat – Mahaseer National Park 2014 IUCN Strategic Environmental Assessment concluded that Poonch River is Ecologically “Highly Sensitive” IFC determined that the Gulpur HPP Is located in Critical Habitat (per PS6) based on: • Regionally important population of Endangered migratory fish, Golden Mahaseer (Tor putitora) • Critically Endangered Kashmir Catfish (Glyptothorax kasmirensis) Gulpur HPP is located within the Poonch River Mahaseer National Park 3 Golden Mahaseer PROJECT APPROACH: ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS 4 1/24/2018 Diversion Tunnels Cofferdam Powerhou Intake se Weir and Spillway Stilling Basin Capacity: 102 MW RoR 7 Footer • Total of 62 HPPs in the AJK • Four in the Poonch River STUDY AREA – SPATIAL BOUNDARIES THE VECS ▪ Fish Fauna ▪ Sediment Load of the River ▪ Surface Water Quantity – Flow ▪ Landscape 1/24/2018 AQUATIC STUDY Extensive additional Baseline Data Collected Oct 2013 and April 2014 HYDRAULIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGY INDICATORS Minimum 5-day dry season fish breeding habitat Depth Hydraulics Minimum 5-day average velocity (across the cross- section) Active channel width Area of silt/mixed bars (regardless of level of inundation) Area of cobble bars (regardless of level of inundation) Geomorphology Median bed sediment size (armouring) Depth of pools Area of secondary channels and backwaters Suspended sediment load.
    [Show full text]
  • Tor Putitora) in Pakistan: a RAPD Based Study
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE & BIOLOGY ISSN Print: 1560–8530; ISSN Online: 1814–9596 16–290/2016/18–6–1181–1187 DOI: 10.17957/IJAB/15.0224 http://www.fspublishers.org Full Length Article Genetic Diversity in Different Populations of Mahseer (Tor putitora) in Pakistan: A RAPD Based Study Nuzhat Shafi1*, Javaid Ayub1, Nasra Ashraf1, Afsar Mian2 and Inayat ullah Malik3 1Department of Zoology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Azad Kashmir 2Bioresource Research Center, Islamabad, Pakistan 3Government College University, Faisalabad, Pakistan *For correspondence: [email protected] Abstract Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) based PCR amplification of nuclear DNA was carried out from collected samples of Golden mahseer (Tor putitora: Hamilton, 1822) from Rivers Poonch, Jhelum and Mangla Reservoir of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Rivers Swat, Indus (Khyber Pukhtunkhwa) and Hingol (Baluchistan) of Pakistan. A total of 197 bands were generated by 16 RAPD primers with 87.73% polymorphic and 43.75% unique bands. Swat River’s population exhibited the highest level of polymorphism and held the highest genetic diversity (73%) followed by population of Mangla reservoir (57%), River Indus (54.31%), River Jhelum (44.67%), River Poonch (37.06%) and River Hingol (2.03%). Heterogeneity (Ht, 0.19), genetic diversity within population (Hs, 0.13), between populations (Dst, 0.05) and genetic differentiation constant (Gst, 0.022) were low. Gene flow between populations (3.22) was high. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) ascribed higher variability (79%) within population factors. UPGMA dendrogram based on Nei’s genetic similarities and distances separated two main clusters of populations; cluster one subdivided into two; 1) were identified the populations of Poonch River, Jhelum River and Mangla Reservoir, and 2) swat River and Indus River.
    [Show full text]