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Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan

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Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan Faculty of Environmental Sciences Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan DISSERTATION To obtain the academic degree Doctor of Egineering (Dr. – Ing.) Submitted to the Faculty of Environmental Sciences Technische Universität Dresden, Germany by Naeem Saddique, M.Sc. born on December 20, 1986 in Kasur, Pakistan Reviewers: Prof. Dr. Christian Bernhofer TU Dresden, Institut für Hydrologie und Meteorologie, Professur für Meteorologie Prof. Dr. Rudolf Liedl TU Dresden, Institut für Grundwasserwirtschaft Prof. (Associate) Dr. Muhammad Adnan Shahid University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Date of defense: 03.02.2021 Erklärung des Promovenden Die Übereinstimmung dieses Exemplars mit dem Original der Dissertation zum Thema: “Hydrometeorological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Jhelum River Basin, Pakistan” wird hiermit bestätigt. Ort, Datum Unterschrift (Naeem Saddique) II Abstract Climate change and land use transition are the main drivers of watershed hydrological processes. The main objective of this study was to assess the hydrometeorological responses to climate and land use changes in the Jhelum River Basin (JRB), Pakistan. The development of proper climate information is a challenging task. To date, Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used for climate projections. However, these models have a coarse spatial resolution, which is not suitable for regional/local impact studies such as water resources management in the JRB. Therefore, different downscaling methods and techniques have been developed as means of bridging the gap between the coarse resolution global models projection and the spatial resolution required for hydrological impact studies. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) are selected in this study for downscaling of temperature and precipitation. Both downscaling approaches consider three climate models and two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in order to sample the widest range of uncertainties in climate projections. Current land use and land cover (LULC) maps are generated from Landsat imagery to analyze the pattern and dynamic of land use change. Both climate projections and LULC are fed into SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to investigate the streamflow dynamics. The results indicate good applicability of SDSM and LARS-WG for downscaling of temperature and precipitation in three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Both models show an increase mean annual max temperature, min temperature and precipitation as 0.4-4.2°C, 0.3-4.2°C and 4.4-32.2% under both RCPs scenarios. Similarly, results of SWAT model suggest an increase in mean annual discharge about 3.6 to 28.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study also revealed that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The results of LULC change detection show that forest exhibited maximum positive change while agriculture showed maximum negative change during 2001-2018. SWAT model simulations suggested that implementation of afforestation in the watershed would reduce surface runoff and water yield while enhancing the evapotranspiration. It is recommended that authorities should pay attention to both climate change and land use transition for proper water resources management. III List of Abbreviations AR3 Third Assessment Report AR5 Fifth Assessment Report CCI Commission of Climatology CDD Consecutive Dry Days CDFs Cumulative Distribution Function CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability CMIP5 Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 CWD Consecutive Wet Days DD Dynamical Downscaling DEM Digital Elevation Model DS Dual Simplex ENVI Environment for Visualization Images ET Evapotranspiration ETCCDI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices ETM Enhanced Thematic Mapper FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FRST Forest Mixed GCMs General Circulation Models GSA Global Sensitivity Analysis GWQ Ground Water Flow HRUs Hydrological Response Units HWSD Harmonized World Soil Database IBIS Indus Basin Irrigation System IMD Indian Meteorological Department IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JRB Jhelum River Basin KC Kappa Coefficient LARS-WG Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator LULC Land Use and Land Cover MK Mann–Kendall MLRs Multiple Linear Regressions mslpgl Mean Sea Level Pressure NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP National Center for Environmental Prediction NRMSE Normalized Root Mean Square Error NSE Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency OA Overall Accuracy OLS Ordinary Least Squares p1_fgl Surface Airflow Strength p1_thgl Surface Wind Direction p1_ugl Surface Zonal Velocity p1_vgl Surface Meridional Velocity IV p1_zgl Surface Vorticity p1_zhgl Surface Divergence p5_fgl 500 hpa air flow strength p5_thgl 500 hpa wind direction p5_ugl 500 hpa zonal velocity p5_vgl 500 hpa meridional velocity p5_zgl 500 hpa vorticity p5_zhgl 500 hpa divergence p500gl 500 hpa geopotential height p8_fgl 850 hpa air flow strength p8_thgl 850 hpa wind direction p8_ugl 850 hpa zonal velocity p8_vgl 850 hpa meridional velocity p8_zgl 850 hpa vorticity p8_zhgl 850 hpa divergence PA Producer’s Accuracy Pbias Percent of Bias PET Potential Evapotranspiration PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department prcpgl Precipitation PRCPTOT Annual Total Precipitation from Days !1 mm R10mm Count the Number of Days where Rainfall !10 mm r500gl Relative Humidity at 500 hpa R95p Total Annual Precipitation from Days >95th Percentile RCMs Regional Climate Models RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RF Random Forest rhumgl Near Surface Relative Humidity RMSE Root Mean Square Error RNGE Grass+ Sparse Vegetation RX1 day Annual Maximum 1 Day Precipitation RX5 day Annual Maximum Consecutive 5 Day Precipitation s500gl Specific Humidity at 500 hpa SCS Soil Conservation Service SD Statistical Downscaling SDII Ratio of Annual Total Wet-Day Precipitation to the Number of Wet Days SDSM Statistical Downscaling Model SED Semi-Empirical Distribution SFTMP Snowfall Temperature shumgl Surface Specific Humidity SMFMN Minimum Melt Rate of Snow During the Year SMFMX Maximum Melt Rate of Snow During the Year SMTMP Snow Melt Base Temperature SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission V SU Annual Number of Days when Daily Max Temperature >25 °C SUFI-2 Sequential Uncertainty-Fitting, Version 2 SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool tempgl Mean Temperature at 2 m TIMP Snow Pack Temperature Lag Factor Tmax Maximum Temperature Tmin Minimum Temperature TN10p Percentage of Nights in a Year when Daily Max Temperature <10th Percentile TN90p Percentage of Nights in a Year when Daily Max Temperature >90th Percentile TNn Minimum Values of Daily Minimum Temperature TNx Maximum Values of Daily Minimum Temperature TX10p Percentage of Days in a Year when Daily Max Temperature <10th Percentile TX90p Percentage of Days in a Year when Daily Max Temperature >90th Percentile TXn Minimum Values of Daily Maximum Temperature TXx Maximum Values of Daily Maximum Temperature UA User's Accuracy URMD Residential-Medium Density USGS United States Geological Survey WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WATR Water WDs Western Disturbances WGs Weather Generators WMO World Meteorological Organization WY Water Yield VI List of Symbols bmelt Melt factor Ea Amount of evapotranspiration O" Average of observed values Oi Observed values P" Average of modelled values Pi Modelled values Qgw Amount of base#ow Qsurf Amount of surface run-off Rdayi Amount of precipitation on day i snowcov. Fraction of the HRU covered by snow SNOWmelt Amount of snowmelt Swo Initial soil water content SWt Final soil water content Tmelt Base temperature above which snowmelt Tsnow Snowpack temperature Wseep Amount of water entering the vadose zone from the soil pro$le % Standard deviation VII CONTENTS Abstract .................................................................................................................................... III List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. IV List of Symbols ..................................................................................................................... VII 1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study Area ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 Indus River basin ................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Jhelum River basin ................................................................................................ 5 1.3 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Structure of Thesis ........................................................................................................ 6 1.5 List of Publications ........................................................................................................ 8 2 Publications ....................................................................................................
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