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India’s Foreign Policy 37th Decoding Modi-Doval Diplomacy: Year of Publication Sovereignty, Security & Strategy

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EDITORIAL India’s Foreign policy is seeing changes it has never seen before to be a pro- active one totally pragmatic with India’s development mode as the core focus. As our Foreign Secretary says, Business is Bread and Butter of Indo-US ties, it is true for most countries. Business is the face of Diplomacy, international relations is about selling the arms their countries make, plain simple trade. War is less business than trade, better returns. Many countries are in the race to befriend India the only large market for their armament industry. It is a PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL game changer, till now the Indian defence contract market was sell and go, today the definition of a Indian defence contract is if you get a contract sell Volume XXXVIII Number 11 November 2017 some pieces then transfer technology and make the remaining pieces here in India. No kickbacks. It is a tough negotiation, a game most are getting used to G . Kishore Babu now and believe, if a country does not transfer technology others will offer Editor technology and with better terms. India by force will soon develop good indigenous defence technology with dual use, civilian and military will help Bhabani Dikshit Indian commercial interest leap frog into the next generation technologies in Managing Editor the sphere. Stuti S. Mandala Some of the issues: Associate Editor The US for the first time is in a fix with India, as it needs India for its geopolitical and business needs, so the anger against Pakistan, but how long it lasts is something we have to see as in the past protecting American interests WORLD FOCUS takes up every month one Pakistan has skilfully got back into the good books of the US. international issue and gives an analysis of its various Today Japan is one of India’s closest foreign policy partners giving billions aspects by persons well known for their of Dollars in soft long term loans for building Infrastructure, Highways, Roads, specialisation in the subject. The issues covered are and Bridges. Japan and India need each other to see that China does not go on topical or near topical, but of an abiding interest. The analysis is simple enough to interest even an its claiming the area it says belongs to it in the South China Sea. initiate to world affairs, but without sacrificing depth. With China now trying and succeeding in being better than the US in many The aim is to present an Indocentric view on a ways. China’s wants to be as great as it was in the past with the vast wealth particular issue currently facing the world. it has today, a challenge to all the countries of the region. Its aggressive foreign Opinions expressed in the articles are personal views policy, China has border issues with 21 countries, some settled. President Xi of the author and in no way reflect the opinion of Jinping like Deng before him believes that trade and other issues of mutual World Focus. The author is solely responsible for interest should carry on while border issues can take their own time to settle. the contents in his/ her article and the World Focus It can be said that China will do nothing that will affect trade and its exports. takes no responsibility in this regard. President Xi Jinping looks at economic power giving him the vision of having The Contents of this magazine cannot be reproduced a China with the landmass the Qing dynasty had, they built it mostly by in any form with out prior permission from World military victory. He also looks at the capture of countries for China by Focus. Any legal issues pertaining to World Focus Admiral Zheng ruling much of the nations in the South China sea. The full will be settled in NCT region of Delhi only. border India has with China is disputed, 4057- km, with both sides having Unsolicited articles will not be returned or their views on the LAC. acknowledged. World Focus reserves the right to edit articles for brevity and clarity before publication. The way forward is settling issues between us as China will like to close borders and grow trade with India, the world’s largest market. Edited, Owned, Published and Printed by The intricacies of today’s diplomacy is having understanding of realistic G. Kishore Babu from B-49 (Ground Floor), Joshi Colony, I.P. ground levels. A Former spy turned NSA under the guidance of PM Modi, Extension, Delhi-110092 at Madhav Press, 4857/24, First Floor, Ansari Road, Dariyaganj, New Delhi - 110002 together they have made India proud for their brave diplomatic out of the box solutions for India, not done for the last 70 years. We were ignored in Total number of Pages 148, including Covers Afghanistan once a part of Ashoka’s India, now we are being welcomed to be part of the Afghan peace process. India’s Ajit Doval who has the implicit Copy Right : World Focus trust of our Prime Minister Modi, can be best compared to Richard Sorge, the Our Address: Russian Master spy of Stalin, on whose advice Stalin shifted Russian troops, World Focus tanks and planes from the eastern front against Japan to the western front B-49, (Ground Floor) Joshi Colony, against the Germans and saved Moscow from being captured by the Germans I P Extension and thus began the start of the end of the Second World war. India is forging Delhi - 110092, India ahead to maintain its Sovereignty, Strategy and Security with the Modi-Doval Tel. / Fax : 22246905, Mobile No. 8130754555 combine. Email: [email protected] New Delhi G. Kishore Babu Website: www.worldfocus.in November 2017 Editor 3 INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY SERIES -1 Annual Issue Contents Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Might Boost Economic Ties With India Prof. R. G. Gidadhubli...... 5 Tibet Factor in Indo-Sino Relations Prof. P. Lazarus Samraj & Vineeth Thomas...... 11 Decoding India’s Foreign Policy Prof. Snehalata Panda...... 17 Indo-Bangladesh Relations: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta...... 25 Doklam Perspectives and China’s 19th Communist Party Congress G. Kishore Babu...... 33 The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia Sudhir Kumar Dara, Sudhir Kumar Garhwal & Ambrish Dhaka...... 34 Need For Careful Multilayered Rational Foreign Policy towards Bangladesh Ranjana Mishra...... 43 India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? Dr. Deepak Yadav ...... 47 The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership Dr. Mohor Chakraborty...... 55 India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race Dr. Rajesh Kumar ...... 62 India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges Dr. Saleem Ahmad...... 71 Manipulating Malthus: A Plausible Way of Moving Beyond the Hyphenated Relations Between India and China Dr. Arindam Roy ...... 78 Indo-US Strategic Convergence and Defence Co-operation under Modi : Moving Towards Pragmatism Dr. Pitam Ghosh ...... 84 India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications Dr. Suneel Kumar...... 90 Revisiting New Delhi-Washington Partnership in Donald Trump’s Regime Dr. Debasish Nandy ...... 98 India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium Dr. Shreesh K. Pathak...... 105 India - Japan Growing Strategic Synergy: A Harbinger of New Era In Indian Foreign Policy Atreyee Mitra...... 112 Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India Shameer M...... 119 The Emerging Contours of China’s South Asia Policy: Challenges for Indian Foreign Policy Mahfooz Alam ...... 126 India’s Summit Diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan, 1998-2004: Crisis Management or Conflict Resolution? Pfokrelo Kapesa...... 131 Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment Swati...... 136 4 World Focus November 2017 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Might Boost Economic Ties with India Prof. R. G. Gidadhubli

Eurasian Economic Union which was set up It needs to be mentioned that there are a few on 1st January 2015 has emerged as a major regional objective factors for these three states to promote organization comprising of five states namely Russia, the concept of EEU. Firstly, there is geographical Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. contiguity between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, Looking back, credit should be given to the president which gives them an advantage in promoting of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbaev who in 1994 economic cooperation. Secondly, being part of the suggested the idea of creating a “Eurasian Union” former Soviet Union, there were certain during his speech at Moscow State University. In commonalities in economic institutions, structures and the aftermath of the Soviet breakup when all the relations. Thirdly, despite attaining political former Soviet republics were passing through the independence after the Soviet break- up, there was a period of political and economic transformation and fair degree of cordiality in relations even as some crisis, he was possibly impressed by the role of differences did persist. Fourthly, apart from these economic achievements of the European Union set objective factors, it needs to be stated that these three up by West European countries. Moreover, it needs states had already entered into an agreement for the to be mentioned that while many political scientists Customs Union for promoting economic cooperation, proposed for further integration towards a monetary, which did bring about some improvement of economic political, military and cultural union, the concept of ties. having a purely economic union was realistic having concerns about keeping their independence and EEU has been functioning through sovereignty intact. supranational and intergovernmental institutions. The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is the “Supreme Even as the concept was ideal, it took time Body” of the Union, consisting of the heads of member to materialize since the decade of the 1990s was states. The second level of intergovernmental turbulent for all the former Soviet republics. Hence institutions is represented by the Eurasian in 2007 Vladimir Putin during his second term of Intergovernmental Council which consists of the presidency of Russia not only strongly supported the Prime Ministers of the member states. Apart from idea of the Kazak president Nazarbaev but also took that administrative functions are carried out by the initiative for setting up Eurasian Economic Union. He Eurasian Economic Commission which is essentially was aware of the growing role of the European Union an executive organization. The present Chairman of in global affairs. It took some time to coordinate and the Eurasian Economic Commission’s Board is Tigran undertake several measures to convert his idea into Sarkisyan. reality. Moreover, the three states realized the need Hence subsequently on the 18th November to form an institution to take care of legal matters 2011 the then president of Russia Dmitri Medvedev, and thus a judicial body, namely the Court of the Kazak president Nursultan Nazarbaev and Belarus Eurasian Economic Community was established with president Alexander Lukashenko signed an headquarter in Minsk the capital of Belarus. The agreement setting the target of establishing Eurasian objective of this court is to adjudicate economic Economic Union (EEU) by 2015. It needs to be disputes between the member states. Equally mentioned that from 1st January 2012 organization important is that EEU has provided the facility of Free known as Eurasian Economic Space started operating Trade Agreement which is intended to promote trade facilitating the formation of EEU in 2015 and economic cooperation among the member states

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Might Boost Economic Ties with India 5 and those countries that enter into trade agreement Trade Bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, with the EEU. Kazakhstan, Krygyzstan, and Russia. It essentially extends from the borders of China in the East to the The objective of EEU has been to emerge borders of the European Union in the West. as a major regional economic organization. In this regard the Kazakh politicians have emphasized that Constraints and Challlenges the Eurasian Economic Union is not intended to be a Notwithstanding some achievements in forming the political bloc, but a purely economic union. This has EEU and creating structures for its functioning, there been highlighted by the first deputy prime minister of are certain constraints and challenges in the Kazakhstan Bakytzhan Sagintayev who has been performance of this Organization. As opined by some candid in stating “We are not creating a political analysts, there are apprehensions as regards organization; we are forming a purely economic effectiveness in the functioning and performance of union.” He further stated “it is a pragmatic means to some its institutions such as Customs Union. It was get benefits. In fact this is the view of all the founder pointed out that some of the decisions taken by the members of EEU who realized the fact that economic governments at higher level remained on paper and objectives are matters of significance for their were not implemented. Moreover, there are variations economic development, for modernization and in the level of bureaucratic control and corruption in industrialization, for cutting transaction costs and for each of these member states of EEU. Hence as promoting international division of labor. stated by some analysts, some Russian entrepreneurs intended to re-register a few hundred enterprises in It is important to note that EEU, with a GDP Kazakhstan for taking the benefit of lower taxes and of more than $ 4 trillion and population of more than lesser corruption. In view of this it has become evident 200 million is aimed at economic development of the that the objectives of EEU will be achieved if there is member states with the formation of a single market considerable uniformity in economic policies being by coordinating their economic policies and evolved and pursued by member states. guaranteeing free movement of goods, services, capital and workforce. To achieve these objectives Secondly, it is opined that while the formation EEU aims at providing for common policies in of EEU on the lines of European Union is appreciable, macroeconomic sphere, transport, industry and the experience of European integration may not be agriculture, energy, foreign trade and investment, relevant for EEU where Russia with its huge size customs, technical regulation, competition and antitrust and economic and defense potentialities might play a regulation. It is pointed out that provisions for a single dominant role. currency and greater integration are envisioned in the future. Thirdly, while EEU is a supranational body which would ensure the interest of member states, Thus this supranational body has potentiality question was raised by some critics as to the authority to assume great geo-political and geo-economic of EEU with third countries. It appears that while significance in regional and global affairs. In fact this Russia held the view that the authority was the objective has been partly achieved. This is evident prerogative of the Eurasian Supreme Economic from the fact that trade among these three countries Council, Belarus insisted that all contracts were to has increased during the last few years. Moreover, be agreed at the national level with the preservation as per reports, Russia has been able to attract skilled of the nation state’s right to veto. Hence while sorting and semi-skilled workers seeking employment thus out such differences had been a challenge before creating mobility of workforce among the EEU. Apart EEU was formed, certain challenges might persist in from that there is already some expansion of the EEU. the functioning of EEU. It is important to note that Armenia became a member of this trade bloc in 2015 shortly after it was formed. Fourthly, in the opinion of some western Moreover, Kyrgyzstan has also undergone ratification analysts, investment climate in Russia had been far procedures to join the EEU while Tajikistan is from satisfactory when Putin took over his third term considering membership. Thus the EEU is a Free of presidency in 2012 -13. This was partly because 6 World Focus November 2017 Russia had huge petrodollars and policy was taken to which embraces both Europe and Asia could be increase the share of the Russian State in private expanded to include many neighboring countries sector companies in energy and other sectors of the including Bulgaria, Mongolia, China etc. As per some economy. Moreover, situation has been further Russian reports in 2014 India, Iran, Egypt and Israel affected since Russia has been hit by economic were also negotiating the possibility of forming free sanctions by the West due to its policy of alleged trade zone agreements with the EEU. In this take-over of Crimea in 2014. Hence for ensuring background it is worth examining the scope and sustained economic growth it is necessary for Russia prospects of EEU – India relations. and members of EEU to create proper investment climate for attracting capital and technology by the EEU – India Ties countries which are also interested in promoting trade As stated above, EEU comprises of five countries and economic relations with the EEU. namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Krygyzstan, and Russia. At the outset it needs to be stated that Fifthly, as expected there are critics among India has close and cordial relations with each of the West about the emergence and moderate success these member countries of EEU. Moreover, they of EEU. It is opined that the formation of EEU has were part of the former Soviet Union with which been a part of Vladimir Putin’s intention to revive India had the advantage of geo-political and geo- Soviet Union. This is an accusation which is far from economic ties for over six decades. Hence there is reality. considerable scope for India to promote its trade and economic relations with members of the EEU. Regional Expansion EEU has emerged as a regional organization. Hence It needs to be mentioned that in 2015 a being an economic organization, apart from the former beginning was made during the negations between Soviet republics, EEU has been attracting many Asian the former Indian Commerce and Industry Minister countries. For instance, on the 29th May 2015 Vietnam Nirmala Sitharaman and Minister of Trade of the became the first country to sign a free trade Eurasian Economic Commission Andrei Slepnev to agreement with the EEU. This agreement has been sign a framework of free trade zone agreement during a great boom for Vietnam and for Russia which is the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. evident from the fact that bilateral trade has increased Hence she rightly stated “The two regions are big, sharply since the FTA came into effect in early anything done together should naturally lead to bigger 2016. Moreover, Russia has invested about US $ 10 outcomes”. billion in the projects in Vietnam which will immensely boost its economy. China which has already emerged In pursuing the policy of the government of as a major trading partner of Russia and Kazakhstan India, a joint study group was set up headed by a during the last over two decades and has potentiality Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Commerce who to play an important role for the success of EEU. had been mandated to study the benefits of joining Apart from setting up joint ventures, a large number the trade bloc of EEU with the emphasis on enhancing of Chinese workers have been working in Russia and trade and investment ties with the EEU as also with Central Asian countries. As per reports about 50 pc the Central Asian countries. In fact India has keen of Kazakhstan companies cooperate with varying interest to enhance its ties with Russia as also with degrees with Chinese partners. the Central Asian countries, which have huge oil and gas reserves and are an important link to Afghanistan. Considering the benefits that might accrue In this regard as rightly opined by Prof A. K. Pasha to countries which might enter into FTA with the EEU, of the Jawaharlal Nehru University “India keeps the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has talking of an Asian century, but we seem to be losing expressed his satisfaction by stating that around 40 out … we should have taken the lead for Asian countries were holding talks on some kind of initiatives. This is an opportunity and we must agreement with the EEU. In this regard Russian proactively associate [with] and contribute [to]. These political scientist Dmitry Orlov has opined that EEU associations indicate a growing regional growth,”

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Might Boost Economic Ties with India 7 There has been considerable progress in this regard. Russia and EEU. For instance, as reported by the PTI in March 2017 the trade ministers of India and Russia chalked out a So far as Russia is concerned as reported by road map for signing of a free trade pact with the some analysts it is important that an effort has been Eurasian Economic Union and take up issues to made by the two sides to take up the issue of mutual boost bilateral trade at a meeting held in Chennai. market access for agricultural and processed food Both the former Indian Commerce and Industry products, including dairy products and bovine meat, Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Russian to widen the range of products for bilateral trade. In counterpart Denis Manturov addressed the India- this context several measures, including an agreement Russia Business Forum after the inaugural function. on a free trade zone between the EEU and India, is They also examined the report of the joint study expected to help increase the bilateral trade with group on the feasibility of a free trade agreement Russia to US $ 30 billion by 2025, which stood at (FTA) between the India and the Eurasian Economic below $ 10 billion in 2017. Union (EEU) and decide on the timeframe for bilateral negotiations and components of the In this regard as righty pointed out by the proposed pact. Indian ambassador to Russia Pundi Srinivasan Raghavan, India is keen to invest in Russia’s coal Thus taking all factors into consideration, India and hydrocarbon projects. At the round table th and the EEU signed the deal on 26 August 2017, discussion of SPIEF in 2015 he mentioned that India which was a landmark event in promoting India’s would make specific proposals on bilateral trade and economic ties with this region as rightly cooperation in these sectors. As officially stated by stated by the Chairman of the Eurasian Economic Sunil Kumar, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Commerce Commission’s Board Tigran Sarkisyan. Even as the & Industry of the Indian government, India stands to agreement was signed by the trade ministers of India gain from the free trade pact with Eurasia, as its and Russia, it was a matter of great significance that imports from these countries are greater than its Sarkisyan had met the Indian Prime Minister Narendra exports to them. There are expectations that exports Modi in St. Petersburg. He said “We discussed trade to these countries will increase in the years to come. and economic relations between the Eurasian Economic Union and India. We noted with satisfaction It is worth considering few cases. For that both sides were interested in signing a treaty of instance, during the last about two decades, this kind, and the results of a research into the issue pharmaceutical products have assumed importance demonstrate that it will be a win-win situation for among the India’s export basket to Russia. Major India and the EEU”. pharmaceutical companies such as Lupin, Dr Reddy Labarotaries, Glenmark etc have earned popularity The signing of free trade agreement with the in Russia, Kazakhstan etc. for their high quality EEU might increase trade and economic ties with products and at the same time more competitive as India and other EEU member states. Russia is a major compared to those from the West European countries. member state among the EEU. Hence it is an Hence Indian pharmaceutical companies should note opportunity for India to improve commercial ties with that the EEU has just regulated its common Russia as also with other members of EEU as well. pharmaceutical market which could have immense Because even as political relations between India and significance for Indian access to the EEU after the Russia and other members of EEU are close, cordial Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has reached a and consistent, bilateral trade at present remains low conclusion. This will facilitate in creating a huge below $ 10 billion. It needs to be mentioned that the market for Indian medicines in EEU countries. Hence former Soviet Union was a major trading partner of apart from exporting medicines, there is scope for India accounting for about 15 pc of bilateral trade Indian pharmaceutical companies to set up more joint which has come down to about 5 percent at present. ventures with pharma companies of Russia, Hence there is urgent need and scope to improve Kazakhstan and Belarus to meet the growing needs trade and economic relations between India and of medicines at affordable prices for the large section

8 World Focus November 2017 of population of EEU. This has great relevance since potentiality to play a major role for the countries which middle and lower income group of population in these enter into free trade agreement with the EEU. In countries are not able to afford high cost medicines view of this as rightly stated by N. Kuzmin the Kazakh imported from the West. political scientist and foreign policy expert, “the proclamation of Eurasian Union is a campaign with a Similarly, jewelry sector has assumed very powerful symbolic resource”. This might help importance in bilateral trade. According to some states including India to enhance economic relations reports Indian companies in the jewelry sector have having entered into free trade agreement with the expressed interest in the Eurasian Diamond Exchange EEU. which has been recently opened in Vladivostok. The Looking at regional level, India has an KGK Group of companies which are India’s largest opportunity to play its legitimate role as regional power diamond merchants, are spending US$25 million on in EEU relations with South Asia. In this regard the establishing a facility there. much awaited International North-South Transportation Corridor should become a reality. This In terms of size of territory and resource is because apart from India, Iran is also in the process potentialities, apart from Russia Kazakhstan is a major of concluding its own Free Trade Agreement with partner in EEU. The ambassador of Kazakhstan Bulat the EEU. North- South Corridor connects Caspian Sarsenbayev stated at a conference organized by the Sea with the Indian Ocean in which Iran has location Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) in Chennai advantage and the Caspian Sea borders both Russia on 26th April 2017 that the signing of FTA by India and Kazakhstan. With India having cordial relations with the EEU would allow “access” to the market with Iran and other member states of the Caspian comprising 200 million people and make Indian and Sea, it should be possible for India and Russia to Kazakhstan companies “work together”. He further ensure that North-South Corridor could become a added that Kazakhstan is rich in “mineral resources”, reality and operational reducing time by several weeks and invited Indian IT companies and hoteliers to set and cost of transportation of exports and imports up shop in his country. According to Sarsenbayev, between India and Russia and Kazakhstan by about trade between the two countries stood at USD 618 40 pc. India should become an active player and million in 2016 and main exports from Kazakhstan to increase investment if necessary in ensuring that India included oil products, metals and natural minerals North-South Corridor will become a reality soon. This while imports comprise pharmaceuticals, tea and will help economic cooperation between EEU and tobacco among others. There are expectations that South Asian countries namely India, Sri Lanka, trade and economic relations will increase with the Bangladesh etc. In fact, this was reiterated by Andrei signing of this free trade agreement. Slepnev who stated while Russia was entering into deal with India and Iran “I think that in general this In fact both Russia and Kazakhstan being whole complex of measures forms a clear picture of major energy rich countries, the share of EEU so far our priorities for cooperation with partners in the Asian as global oil and natural gas are concerned will be region, which now have the highest growth rate, and quite significant accounting for over 12 pc of oil and generally support the global economy”. Thus India 35 pc of natural gas. Apart from hydrocarbon can play a major role in promoting regional cooperation resources, both these countries are rich in uranium between EEU states and South Asian countries. which is essential for promoting nuclear energy sector. India has already been benefitted from the In conclusion it may be stated that EEU has cooperation of Russia and Kazakhstan in meeting been formed as economic organization with effect needs of Kudankulam and other nuclear energy plants. from 1st January 2015 comprising of 5 countries namely Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Moreover, Russia and Kazakhstan are Kyrgyzstan. EEU has potentiality to emerge as a endowed with huge ferrous and non-ferrous mineral major regional organization by virtue of the large size resources. Hence from geo-economic and geo- and huge resource potentialities. It has succeeded in political perspective, Russia and Kazakhstan have forming economic structures and institutions such as

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Might Boost Economic Ties with India 9 Customs Union, Free Trade Agreement etc.to evolve agreement with EEU in August 2017. Russia and as a single market which has facilitated its Kazakhstan are major players in the EEU with which achievements and objectives. However, EEU need India has wide ranging trade and economic ties to create conducive investment climate and resolve specially energy, pharmaceutical sectors. Hence issues such as bureaucratic controls and corruption there is considerable scope for India to set up joint to attract foreign investment and technology. ventures in pharmaceutical, engineering and IT sectors with partners in Russia, Kazakhstan and other EEU EEU has already attracted several countries states to further strengthen trade and economic ties. in Asia including Vietnam to be part of free trade Moreover, India can be a regional player by actively agreement. China has been a major economic partner supporting and investing in North-South Corridor and of Russia and Kazakhstan. India has close, cordial making it reality to reduce cost and time for trading and consistent relations with all five EEU member with Russia, Kazakhstan and enhance economic ties states which were part of the former Soviet Union. between EEU and South Asian States. It is appreciable that India has signed free trade

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10 World Focus November 2017 Tibet Factor in Indo-Sino Relations Prof. P. Lazarus Samraj and Vineeth Thomas

India and China are two of the oldest known and soft reverberations in Sino-Indo relations during civilisation of the world with rich legacy of bilateral the last six decades. interactions in multilateral level. Harmony and tolerance prevailed between Indo-China relations until Chinese’s Tibetan interventions before 1949 the occupation of Tibet by China in 1950.The Wading through the annals of history one can find geographical location of Tibet makes it a buffer zone many records of Chinese intervention in Tibet during between the territorial interests of India and China. the ancient medieval period. There is account for the From strategic and defence point of view, this highland Sino -Tibet treaty in 821-822 century, which area occupies significant importance for both India demarcated the boundaries of China and Tibet. China’s and China. Yuan dynasty and Qing dynasty embraced the Lamaist Buddhism as dynastic religion. They also built Tibet is a vast physical area located side by thick relations with the Lamaist sects of Tibet. The side the extensive Himalayas. Some of the world’s Qing dynasty appointed the Tibetan Lamas as their tallest mountains are situated in Tibet. It is also known tutors and advisors. The ascendance of Buddhism as the “water tower of Asia”. Most of the time, has played a significant role in pacifying the Tibetan Tibetan area is severely dry and has an average society and making them dependent upon external snowfall of only 18inches.This bleak geographical sources for military support during threats from both area, with limited arable land and dominated by within and outside. There are evidences of intermittent subsistence agriculture does not made any landmark Chinese interventions by which Tibet defended the contributions in the history of Asia when compared Mongolian invasions “When Mongolian Dzungars to other areas in Asia. The unfriendly geographical intruded and began to assert themselves in Lhasa in features made this area not to easily accessible one 1717 led to a counter invasion in 1719 by force of for the foreign invasions. The arrival of a Portuguese Manchlis, then the first ethnic Chinese military force missionary in 1624 inaugurated the Tibetan links with entered Tibet.” (Garver, Protracted Contest : Sino - the Europeans. This linkage was succeeded by Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century, 2001, p. 41) Russian and other European countries. In 1724, Chinese military help was again sought by the Tibet against the Mongols. The Chinese Ambans Major countries of the world including India (residents) were accepted military protect by the Tibet passively and actively recognised liberation of Tibet in 1728. Subsequently the Chinese influence grew by China and Chinese sovereignty over the Tibetans. stronger and assertive in Tibet to such an extent that When the supreme spiritual leader of Tibetans, the “in 1733 the Chinese put an end to the institution of 14th Dalai Lama, at his young age of 24 was given King and combined both spiritual and temporal political asylum along with his followers in India, authority of Tibet under the Dalai Lama.” (Garver, serious cracks fell upon the smoothly prevailed Indo- Protracted Contest : Sino - Indian Rivalry in the Sino relations. Since 1959, Indo- Sino bilateral relations Twentieth Century, 2001, p. 41) Inorder to wage a are at loggerheads. Apart from pulling back the natural punitive war against Nepal, sizeable Chinese force bonhomie between India and China, India’s stand on entered Tibet in 1790-91 which consequently Tibet in 1959 has also made serious alteration in the reasserted Chinese control over Tibet. Thereupon, geopolitical situation in South Asia in particular and all the crucial decision making procedures were world in general. The disturbances and cracks in the processed through the Chinese Ambans. “In 1792 the world-wide scenario throughout the Cold War era Emperor issued a 29 point which too appeared to and the internal conditions in China vigorously tighten Chinese control over Tibet, it strengthened the influenced on Chinese Tibetan policy, which had hard powers Ambans and it was elevated above the Dalai Tibet Factor in Indo-Sino Relations 11 Lama in responsibility for Tibetan Political affairs.” India’s Response on “Liberation” of Tibet by (Singh, 2003, p. 45) China It was around same time that independent India and In the year 1911, the Qing dynasty came to China were formed where India got its freedom from an end in China. The succeeding Nationalist regime the British colonial rule in 1947 and “People’s Republic had considered the special status of Tibet and of China was founded after the civil war in 1949.” accorded equal status to Tibetans with Manchus, the (Tang, 2011, p. 22)Nehru was very optimistic and Chinese, the Mongols and the Muslims. They also ambitious about the potentiality of thick friendship and declared Tibet as the part of Chinese empire. Due to cooperation between India and China for the general internal crisis and Japanese aggressions, the nationalist advancement and prosperity of Asia. In his speech in regime’s adamant desire to establish complete 1946, Nehru said, “if the two great powers of the sovereignty over Tibet didn’t bear fruits. Later present were America and the Soviet Russia, the two Chinese engagement in Second World War and powers of the future were bound to be China and internal conflict with the communists, diverted its India. India and China represent two distinct and deep attention away from Chinese. rooted civilizations whose ‘pure goals keep them going’ despite the degradation and debris they had suffered The “Liberation” of Tibet by China in the history.” (Gopal, 1997, p. 146) He further said Stressing upon the strategic importance of Tibet, “China, that mighty country with mighty past, our George Ginsburg and Michael Mathas said, “he who neighbour, has been our friend through the ages and holds Tibet, dominates the Himalayan piedmont, he that friendship will endure and grow. We earnestly who dominates the Himalayan piedmont threatens hope that her present troubles will end soon and a Indian subcontinent may well have all South Asia within united and democratic China will emerge, playing a its reach and with that all of Asia.” (Mathas, 1964, p. great part in furtherance of world peace and 185) progress.” (Shukla, 2009, p. 91) The communist regime which succeeded Nationalist regime in 1949 October, soon gave the Historically Tibet had been very close to indications of reviving the old objective of merging India. Since the ancient period, the favourable Tibet with China. (Mehra, 1995, p. 467) The traditional topography existing in the Indo-Tibetan borders acted gateway to Lhasa, Tachienlu was occupied by China as the positive catalyst for the origin and development in 1950.In the same year a large project of connecting of Indo-Tibetan interactions. Tibetans generously China with Tibet through roadways was launched by received and adopted Indian culture, civilisation and the communist regime of China. Beijing radio called legacy which can be testified its embarrassment of upon Dalai Lama to accept, “peaceful liberation of Buddhism around 9th Century AD. However Chinese Tibet”. Citing the instances of internal disturbances occupation of Tibet brought alterations in the Indo- and rebelliousness, Mao Zedong himself spoke about Sino relations. The use of force by People’s Liberation the imminent Chinese invasion of Tibet in June Army in Tibet was objected by India and wished that 1950.With the objective of wiping out the American one day Tibet would get genuine autonomy. After and British influence, in August 1950, General Liu marathon discussions and negotiations, India Po-Chang said that the people’s army soon would recognized “Tibet as a region of China” and an enter Tibet. “President Yuan Shi - Kai appointed agreement was signed in 1954 which aimed at general Yen Chang-Heng governor of Sichuan developing and increasing bilateral relations and province to be the Commander – in –Chief of what facilitating border trade between India and Tibet. were called Western Expeditionary forces and 100000 Nehru government had ample faith in China’s friendly men proceeded to Lhasa , in order to restore Chinese and tolerant gestures and signals. Based upon this, sovereignty there.” (Calvocoressi, 1953) “On 25 the special rights that had inherited from the British October 1950, Chinese News Agency announced that as per 1904 agreement was voluntarily surrendered PLA had entered into Tibet to liberate the people of by India. The 1954 agreement also recognised Tibet and to complete the unification with China.” traditions and customs for pilgrimages by religious (Calvocoressi, 1953) believers from India and Tibet to each other’s places

12 World Focus November 2017 apart from establishing trade agencies in Tibet and its historical links with China and that Tibet’s status India, specifying markets for trade, designation of was wrapped in legal obscurity.” (P J S Sandhu, 2015, traditional passes and routes. p. 4) Nevertheless India had to rethink its policy on Tibet on accounts of security and national interest But the unfortunate incidents that occurred reasons. Since US decided to arm Pakistan in 1954, in second half of 1950s strained the relationship India’s defence and foreign sector faced serious between India and China. It include the Khampa worries. Struggling to build up a nation from the rebellion, riots in Tibet, border clashes and India’s ruminants of colonial rule, India could not afford to decision of giving political asylum for Dalai Lama have tensions and problems with two frontier with his followers. This had serious negative countries. Inorder to avoid being squeezed in both reverberations in the 1954 agreement. The Indo- north and west, India agreed for India-China China war of 1962 was the ultimate expression of agreement and had to compromise in terms regard to the failure and non-functioning of the agreement. Tibet. About the agreement of 1954, it was said, “Agreement between the government of the Republic India’s policy on Tibet of India and the government of the People’s Republic India’s policy towards Tibet has always been of China on trade and inter-course between Tibet consistent and principled. According to noted scholar region of China and India”. (Chung, 1998, p. 506) J. Garver, four distinct periods of Indian policy in Tibet Here, Tibet is referred as the region of China, which can be identified as under means “Government of India” recognizes “Tibet a) “From 1947 to 1951 whereby New Delhi boosted region as a part of China.” This indirectly formalised the international status of Tibetan government and the recognition of Chinese invasion of Tibet and non- pressured Beijing not to move militarily into Tibet. interference of India in the same. The years following b) From 1 954 to 1 959 New Delhi attempted to this agreement was peaceful with regard to Indo- persuade Beijing to grant Tibet a substantial degree China relations. But this was not an everlasting one. of autonomy and to minimise its military presence in Chinese violence in Tibet stirred strong anti-Chinese Tibet by convincing Beijing that there was no need outlooks in India. Tibetan cause had garnered do otherwise and that Indian-Chinese friendship equivocal support in various sections of Indian society. would thereby prosper. “Nehru rejected President Prasad’s suggestion that c) From 1962- 1977 New Delhi supported Tibetan the actions of the Chinese be denounced as new resistance ad mobilised international pressures on colonialism”. (Hoffmann, 1990, p. 64) Subsequent China in Tibet. notes of Indian government afterwards did not confirm d) From 1986- 1999 New Delhi balanced total Chinese sovereignty over Tibet which led China accommodating Beijing’s demands to restrict Tibetan to react aggressively, as a note of government of exile activities with condoning exile efforts to mobilise China on November 6, 1950 which demanded that international pressure on Beijing to reach a political India choose between accepting Beijing’s unlimited settlement of the Tibet.” (Garver, 2001, p. 10) sovereignty over Tibet or confrontation with China. (Garver, 2001, p. 47) The Indo-Sino war of 1962 was After 1947 India continued the “British policy culmination of this tensions and warnings. in Tibet of upholding the Tibetan buffer while recognizing China’s suzerainty over Tibet.” (Garver, The 1962 war led to a deep-seated swing in 2001, p. 10) But simultaneously India tried to the orientation of policy of benevolent tolerance toward accommodate the feelings of Tibetans as well. “On previously banned Tibetan refugee activity. In 1963, 24 November 1950, the UN General Assembly Indian government did not prohibit the Dalai Lama postponed, indefinitely, the consideration of the from promulgating new constitution for Tibet. India Tibetan appeal after the Indian delegate stated that also began cooperation with CIA and Tibetan India was certain that the Tibetan question could still insurgent organisation to support the Tibetan armed be settled by peaceful means and that such a resistance to Chinese rule in Tibet. India also helped settlement would safeguard the autonomy that Tibet in establishing a substantial Tibetan military. (Garver, had enjoyed for several decades while maintaining 2001, p. 62).

Tibet Factor in Indo-Sino Relations 13 But since the visit of Rajiv Gandhi to China Inorder to ease the tensions between Tibetans in 1988, a U-turn is visible in the “India’s policy and “People’s Republic of China”, in the post Mao towards China with regard to Tibet.” “In 1988, the period, several social, economic and political reforms India-China Joint Press Communiqué stated Tibet is were launched in Tibet. The communist reforms of an autonomous region of China and that anti-China collectivised farming was abandoned and land was political activities by Tibetan elements are not handed over to families. Individuals were allowed to permitted on Indian soil.” (Kaul, 1988, p. 191) India’s pursue herding and other sideline occupations. This stand was reiterated in the “Declaration on Principles period also witnessed the release of political prisoners, for Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation inauguration of rural trade fair, resumed border trade between India and China signed in 2003 during the with Nepal, Burma and Bhutan and status and visit of the Prime Minister of India to Beijing.” property were restored of those people who were (Rasgotra, 2007, p. 173) It says “the Indian side punished during the Mao years. (Garver, 2001, p. 69) recognizes that the Tibet Autonomous Region is part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China and In the meanwhile, the Dalai Lama paid visit reiterates that it does not allow Tibetans to engage in to various parts of the world to expose the Tibetan anti-China political activities in India.” (Rasgotra, problem in the international level and gather backing 2007, p. 173) India salutes and promotes the dialogues for the same. For the first time as a voice of Tibetans between the Dalai Lama and Beijing. The Dalai living in exile and in Tibet, the western countries, threw Lama has honoured India’s stand on Tibetan cause. open its stage for Dalai Lama. He was seen as the sign of fight against the oppressive and unfair rule of China’s Policy on Tibet Chinese communist. Along with the international As per the 1951 agreement, excluding foreign and pressure, Chinese awareness of importance of Dalai defence, matters the Chinese government didn’t Lama while dealing with Tibet, end of Maoist regime intervene in the personal affairs of Tibet including and emergence of bit lenient and progressive Deng governance, language, religion and culture. Tibet had regime compelled China to resume contacts with the autonomy to preserve its own indigenous and Dalai Lama in 1979. traditional religious and administrative institutions like Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama with in the In order to break the ice, “in 1979, Deng geographical boundaries of (greater) Tibet. However Xiaoping met the elder brother of the Dalai Lama, it was an abrupt and agonising experience for Tibetans Gyalo Thondup, in Beijing.” (Knaus, 2012, p. 223) who had been leading an almost isolated different The Chinese leader made it clear that “basic condition system for centuries, to undergo the communist for any discussion was that Dalai Lama should accept reforms of China in subsequent years. Inorder to Tibet as an integral part of China.” (Shakya, 1999, p. tighten the control over Tibet’s territory and 518) Dalai Lama put forward one peace proposal in population, China is adopting a policy of suppression Washington for the resolution of the Tibetan problem and dominance towards Tibet. Tibetans had been the in 1987. “The five points of this proposal are as victims of worst human rights violations and abuses following, during the time of “The Great Proletarian Cultural 1. The creation of a zone of peace and ‘ahimsa’ Revolution” and “Great Leap Forward” in China. covering the entire Tibetan ethnic area (which would Chinese initiated its oppressive actions against the include the present Tibet Autonomous region as well Tibetans under the banner of “smash old ideas, old as the erstwhile Tibetan province of Amdo and culture, old customs and old habbits.” (Jiang, 2007, p. Kham). 7) “The Red Guards initiated the destruction of 2. The abandonment of China’s policy of population cultural sites, thousands of Buddhist monks and nuns transfer (Han people moving into Tibet). were killed, tortured and imprisoned.” (Akiner, 1996, 3. Fundamental human rights, democratic and electoral p. 68)Chinese intervened in the functioning and set freedom for the Tibetans. up of monasteries and strictly introduced secular 4. Denuclearisation of Tibet and protection of its education. natural environment.

14 World Focus November 2017 5. Finally the commencement of earnest negotiations Wen and Manmohan Singh primarily aimed at devising to determine the future status of Tibet.” political parameters for settling the border disputes. (Bhoothlingam, 2007) After this diplomatic exercise India misunderstood that “by agreeing to this formulation, the Chinese had Eventhough, there were many informal indicated that in any eventual settlement of the exchanges of views between China and Tibet, boundary alignment in the eastern sector, no major eruption of riots in Lhasa in 1988-89 took the Sino- changes would be made from the present LAC Tibet relations to the back seat again. Till this time alignment that largely follows the McMahon Line.” China has been maintain the opinion that Tibet has (Gill, 2010, p. 62) India was misconception was been liberated and integrated into the big family of cleared when “in 2007 during a meeting with Indian China. Therefore, directly and indirectly China foreign minister, his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi demands the Dalai Lama and other Tibetans who insisted Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh had left Tibet should come back and take part in the (Southern Tibet).” (Joshi, 2017) development of Tibet. In the subsequent years Chinese is China-Tibet-India in Post 2000 toughening its stand on Arunachal Pradesh, — which Sino-Indo relations in the post 2000 period with regard it calls South Tibet. The harshening of China’s policy to Tibet is filled with ups and downs were the down to India with regard to Arunachal Pradesh could be swing phenomena is more visible. Arunachal Pradesh catalysed by the speedily burgeoning Indo-US which officially belongs to India, as per the provisions defence relationship, rising conjunction of Indo-US of the “McMahon line, a boundary drawn by British strategic plans in checking China’s growth and India’s imperialists in 1911”, is considered by China as South waiver by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). In Tibet as China do not accept the McMahon line. This 2009, on accounts of Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang position of China has adversely affected Sino-Indo monastery and his public declaration that Tawang relations and had widespread negative expressions belong to India, “China decided not to grant visa on in the post 2000 period. Indian passports to residents of Arunachal Pradesh and instead it issued travel permits stapled into their In 2003, then Prime Minister AB Vajpayee passports.” (Das, 2014) The Chinese uneasiness with visited China and signed a declaration with Wen Jiabao regard to India’s Tawang region to such an extent which was based upon the motto that “their common that it could not even tolerate “the visit of Indian interests outweigh their differences.” On a subject Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh’s and Narendra that was subtle for China, India generously Modi’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh in 2009 and 2015 acknowledged that the “Tibet Autonomous Region respectively. The Chinese Foreign Ministry (TAR) was a part of the territory of the People’s spokesman characterized such visits as provocative Republic of China (PRC).” By this India also and dangerous.” (Aneja, 2015) acknowledged inadvertently that China did not invaded Tibet in 1950 and went against the position India had been very generous, of the Dalai Lama. India’s stand in this declaration accommodative and tolerant with regard to its Chinese invited widespread criticism as this was done at the foreign policy. In 2014, apart from welcoming Chinese cost on India’s position on McMahon Line and her President Xi Jinping Ahmedabad, Indian Prime related claims of Arunachal Pradesh. These Minister Narendra Modi, “also lifted restrictions criticisms were based upon the fact that, if Tibet was Chinese investments in sensitive sectors of the Indian to be considered as the inalienable part of China, what economy, such as ports and telecoms.” (Tharoor, about Tibet participation in Simla Agreement of 1914, 2017) Not even giving basic decency of where it participated independent. acknowledging the warm hospitality, the Chinese soldiers trespassed and pitched tents in the Ladakh On 11th April 2005, an important agreement region of Jammu and Kashmir, which India considers was signed during Chinese Prime Minister Wen’s visit as part of its sovereign territory. This mini crisis was to India. The negotiations and deliberations between trailed by a series of depressing actions from China

Tibet Factor in Indo-Sino Relations 15 which reflects scant regard for India’s sensitivities References and troubleshooting policies. India’s bid for Akiner, S. (1996). Resistance and Reform in Tibet. Tibet: Motilal membership in Nuclear Supplier Group was opposed Banarsidass Publisher. Aneja, A. (2015, February 21). China protests PM’s Arunachal by China. Despite support from council’s 14 other visit. TThe Hindu. India: N.Ram. members, China “blocked India’s attempts to name Bhoothlingam, R. (2007). For a ‘Harmonious Resolution’ of the Masood Azhar, the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed (a Tibetan Question. Mumbai: EPW. Calvocoressi, P. (1953). Survey of International Affairs, 1949-50. Pakistani terrorist group), to a United Nations London. Security Council blacklist.” (Tharoor, 2017) “China Chellaney, B. (2017, 08 23). China is waging a water war on Pakistan Economic corridor through Pakistan- India. Retrieved from Hindustan Times: http:// www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/china-is-waging-a-water-war-on- controlled parts of Kashmir” (Tharoor, 2017), is india/story-6jqgabEffcatPFzJ6fQ6eJ.html another dismal action from Chinese side. Beijing’s Chung, T. (1998). Across the Himalayan Gap: An Indian Quest denial to give flood related information of those rivers for Understanding China. New Delhi: Gyan Publishing House. which flows through India and have its origin in Tibet, Das, R. N. (2014, 03 18). India-China relations: Visa issue. Retrieved from Institute for defence studies and analysis: http:// is disturbing India’s disaster management processes www.idsa.in/idsacomments IndiaChinarelations Visaissue as “data on upstream river flow is essential for _rndas_180314 forecasting and warning in to save lives and reduce Garver, J. W. (2001). Protracted Contest : Sino - Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century. New Delhi: OUP. material loss.” (Chellaney, 2017) Garver, J. W. (2001). Protracted Contest : Sino - Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century. New Delhi,: Oxford Uuniversity Press. Conclusion Gill, B. (2010). Rising Star: China’s New Security Diplomacy. Washington: Brookings Institution Press. Eventhough since the beginning, dating back to 1954, Gopal, S. (1997). Selected Works Of Jawaharlal Nehru Volume 10. India has maturely kept away herself from meddling New Delhi: OUP. in the Tibet affairs and diplomatically acknowledged Hoffmann, S. A. (1990). India and the China Crisis. London: Tibet as an integral part of China, China is yet to University of California Press. Jiang, J. (2007). Burden Or Legacy: From the Chinese Cultural respond in same wavelength to India with regard to Revolution to Contemporary Art. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim part of India. Dalai University Press. Lama’s presence in India and Dharmashala in Joshi, M. (2017, 9 3). Is Tawang Becoming the Focus of Sino- Indian Relations? Retrieved from The Wire: https://thewire.in/ Himachal Pradesh being the headquarters of Tibetan 115104/tawang-china-india-relations/Kaul, T. N. (1988). government in exile is blocking the settling of Indo- Ambassadors Need Not Lie: India and Asia. University of Sino border disputes. Thus with continuing border California: Lancer International, Lancer Press. Knaus, J. K. (2012). Beyond Shangri-La: America and Tibet’s issues, the question of Tibet has a linchpin role in the Move Into the Twenty-First Century. Durham: Duke University deliberations and discussions of New Delhi and Press. Beijing. The Tibetan cause getting revived and Mathas, G. a. (1964). Communist China and Tibet : The First rejuvenated in international level in general and Sino- Dozen Years. Hague: Martinuss Nigh Offset. Mehra, P. (1995). India , China and Tibet 1954. In Grover, India Indo relations in particular on accounts of China and Japan’s foreign policy (p. 467). New Delhi: Deep and revolutionary developments in information, Deep Publishers. communication and technology. The mass media P J S Sandhu, V. S. (2015). 1962: A View from the Other Side of the Hill. New Delhi: Vij Books India Pvt Ltd,. communications are giving instant coverage and Rasgotra, M. (2007). The New Asian Power Dynamic. New Delhi: broadcasting, when the Chinese introduce more harsh SAGE Publications India. and repressive measures in Tibet to control the Reuters. (2016, 11 16). 41 Tibetans Detained in Nepal Trying to Cross Border Into India. Retrieved from The Quint: https:// situation. Time and again the Indian leadership has www.thequint.com/world/2016/11/15/41-tibetans-detained-in- made it clear that Arunachal Pradesh belongs to India, nepal-trying-to-cross-the-border-into-ind Shakya, T. (1999). The to which China is responding aggressively negative. Dragon in the Land of Snow : A History of Modern Tibet Since Since factors like India homes around 128000 1947. London: Pinlico. Shukla, K. G. (2009). Foreign Policy of India. New Delhi: Atlantic Tibetans, (Reuters, 2016) the political and spiritual Publishers & Dis.Singh, S. (2003). China and South Asia. New head of Tibet Dalai Lama is in India, the headquarters Delhi: Lancer Publishers. of Tibet in exile is located in India, China claims India’s Tang, G. H. (2011). Copyright and the Public Interest in China. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing. Arunachal Pradesh to be its southern Tibet are still Tharoor, S. (2017, 04 11). The Dalai Lama factor in Sino-Indian hot and burning, the issue of Tibet, thus, still remains relations. Retrieved from Asia Times: http://www.atimes.com/dalai- a factor in Sino-Indian relations. lama-factor-sino-indian-relations/

16 World Focus November 2017 Decoding India’s Foreign Policy Prof. Snehalata Panda

With diligent management of diplomatic, economic and military resources India has gained respectable and military resources India has gained status in the international sphere. Even so major respectable status in the international sphere .Even determinants of its foreign policy remain unchanged so major determinants of its foreign policy remain amid continued tension in the neighbourhood though unchanged amid continued tension in the strategic relationship with some big powers has been neighbourhood though strategic relationship with fast forwarded and hard as well as soft power some big powers has been fast forwarded and soft diplomacy is by and large successful. power diplomacy is by and large successful. It has to fine tune its relation with Pakistan and settle Major Determinants: territorial disputes with neighbours. Close rapport Geography has been crucial to India’s foreign policy with world decision makers is essential.India must decision making .Himalayas in the north and the Ocean also consider its military option which would surrounding its three sides are major geographical enhance its deterrence to deal with provocations determinants of its foreign policy. Developments from neighbours. across the Himalayas have impacted its relation with China .It influenced adversely India’s moral values Alterations in a nation’s foreign policy are and ideals based on peaceful international relationship. infrequent unless there is radical transformation in “Negotiations through strength” approach failed to the domestic and/or international arena. India had yield expected result thereby stalemating the problem occasion to revamp its foreign policy thrice in a span and culminating in wars .Innumerable problems have of over seventy years following end of alien cascaded out of the geographical delimitations and administration. In the initial years of independence the territorial issues. India had recalibrated its relations with neighbours and the super powers. Guided by anti colonial India’s location in South Asia is a major perspective it supported decolonization movements determinant in shaping its foreign policy. Its in Asia and outside .But with its best endeavour, it neighbourhood lies between the sea routes of the failed to ensure third world solidarity. Though India’s Indian Ocean (2) and the land routes of Central Asia foreign policy makers designed it to be independent connecting Eastern Europe. For a market oriented of cold war alignments , it could not be realised for economy the area is important for natural resources. the problems inherent in territorial division and Regional alliances were formed before India related ethnic issues. The options for India were embraced market economy but yielded dismal result limited because of its demography, weak economy due to misperceptions of India’s aspirations for and multiple socio economic problems coupled with leadership and dominance. Pakistan has attempted tensions arising from the geographical division of the to circumscribe India’s capabilities while extra country. The end of cold war thawed a new world regional powers like US, Russia and China have order where India had no choice but to change its influenced foreign policy of the region. China – priorities and firm up relationship with the US. In fact, Pakistan axis is the most challenging for India’s these changes were in process much before but were strategic preeminence. Other countries like given a final shape after collapse of USSR to expedite Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka economic reforms. Even with limited options during maintained balanced relation with India and China the transitional period India benefitted from though tilting towards China is evident for their engagements in a globalised economy. With enhanced economic and infrastructure development. The capabilities its foreign policy embodied dynamism oceanic geography is no less important for the historic .Due to diligent management of diplomatic, economic connections with the littorals and the growing volume Decoding India’s Foreign Policy 17 of sea borne trade as well as security of the Sea Pakistan Economic Corridor. As long as the relation Lanes of Communication. With approximately 3000 between these countries remains fluid, immense kms of coastal boundary, India has to spend huge diplomatic and soft power resources are required to amount of funds for ensuring security. Super power sustain friendly relation with our eastern and south rivalry in the Indian Ocean coupled with India’s eastern neighbours.(4) outreach to the Pacific Ocean has exacerbated competition for exploration of natural resources and India has safeguarded its national interest to trade transactions. Differences in approach for use achieve the goals at home and in the international of the ocean has raised debate on freedom of sea sphere as per changes in international milieu. After versus control over specific water areas. (3) adopting market model of development the indigenous corporate capitalist sector has predominance in setting The river routes of Ganga, Irrawaddi and the foreign policy agenda. Pro US policy has resulted Mekong (GIM) through the Bay of Bengal was used from several perspectives after the collapse of the by Indian merchants to access the domestic markets cold war world order shifting radically India’s foreign of several East Asian countries thereby strengthening policy objectives .The state in combination with the not only economic but cultural relations as well. Some capitalist interest groups have set the strategy like North East Indians share their ethnic and cultural ties military modernization, investment in oil fields, pipeline with the people of Thailand and Myanmar. The Indo- diplomacy, soft power approaches, human security Burma region is a large geographical area comprising along with infrastructure and defence ties with the Southeast Asian nations and portions of northeast less developed countries in our neighbourhood and India with a vast coast line touching the islands of outside. It also embeds the security threats arising South China Sea, the Gulf of Thailand including the from the disturbed geography that is the legacy of Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Following partition of the country and the changes with claims liberalization India accessed regional associations and counter claims sustained for the last seven namely the Association of South East Asian Nations decades. Inherent in such a policy is competition and , became member of Mekong Ganga Cooperation , collaboration along with the perspectives arising from the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sector Technical perceived and real friends and foes. Economic and Economic Cooperation and the India Myanmar determinants guided its foreign policy resulting in full Thailand Trilateral Cooperation .India’s Look East diplomatic ties with Israel, Western Europe ,South Policy had the twin objective of reviving the trade East Asia which in due course stretched to the Indo- and cultural links with the countries in this oceanic Asia –Pacific .The issue of Human Rights became geography. So far trade with these blocs has not been central to decision making .An important offshoot of encouraging but over a gap of about five hundred this policy was the menace of terrorism . US war on years the “epicenter of global economy” has realigned terrorism had an added impact on foreign policy. In .Myanmar is strategic in this geopolitical region where all these diplomatic endeavours India adhered to blend India has built the Sittwe port .After being national and international interests keeping in view commissioned it will open the Kolkata-Mizoram trade its socio economic development, geography, historical route via Myanmar .While relation with these experiences and cultural diversities. But decision countries is important for India , a major factor is the making processes reflected the nature of political relationship of each of these countries with China institution, ideology, orientations of the political .Not withstanding fierce competition for resources leadership and role of the think tanks in taking a call and influence ,India and China are members of Brazil- on the country’s foreign policy. Obviously changes Russia-India-China-South Africa(BRICS) and the concomitant of change in leadership in other countries New Development Bank apart from the Shanghai had impacted our foreign policy. Cooperation Organisation to which India was recently inducted. Even so relationships between both Thrust Areas: countries lacks in mutual trust .Most of the Asian An important feature of India’s foreign policy is its countries have welcomed China’s Belt Road Initiative relation with US specifically after economic but India has reservations for the controversial China liberalisation. Both are “natural strategic partners who

18 World Focus November 2017 share common values and interests”.Its vast market US support for India to play a key role in potential, developments in the neighbourhood like Afghanistan is welcome in view of China and terrorism and growing influence of China have guided Pakistan’s diplomacy to keep India off Afghanistan. US relationship with India. To balance China, US has In September ,2017"Passage to Prosperity” a trade strengthened its relation with Australia, Japan and and investment show was sponsored by United States South Korea. India is its ally in the eastern Indian was held in India for providing new opportunities to Ocean. It seeks close partnership with India to share businesses in Afghanistan.(10) This is in consonance some of its responsibilities to maintain security in the with US policy to involve India in the development of IOR and share military facilities.US officials have Afghanistan. But the rocket attack in Kabul airport used the word Indo-Asia- Pacific combining the two delaying the arrival of Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Oceans to broaden their engagement .US presence to India indicated opposition to the initiative. Trump in the Indian Ocean is far less compared to its naval administration is rather harsh towards Pakistan build up in the Pacific for which it has tied up with recently because it is “hosting terror safe havens” the countries in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) .In and threatened to “suspend aid unless it falls in line” the recent IOR conference it has announced naval .Pakistan has been upset because US is not “sharing exercise with Sri Lanka (5). US has called for the threat perceptions about India” which is “war Freedom of Navigation and Over flight as well as mongering and building up its defence capabilities”. respect for international Law as reflected in the UN The “nexus” that threaten its security include US, Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS). Afghanistan and India. (11) Trump administration is Chinese assertions and land reclamation in South emphatic on transactional relationship which is evident China Sea violates UNSLOC .Littorals of South China from nudging India to contribute to the stability in Sea are concerned about Chinese action . Despite Afghanistan especially in the area of economic China’s reactions US has demonstrated freedom of assistance and development. (12)It is also sea by sailing to the internationally recognised collaborating with India on security. US and India territorial limit .(6)US- China relations seem to be conducted military drill during (Yudh Avyas) ambiguous as on one hand it needs China’s help to September 14-27-2017 but India has not entered any defuse tension with North Korea and on the other it trilateral or quadrilateral security axis to counter is supporting its allies on the South China Sea problem. China. On the Freedom of Navigation, it sets its own terms; Japan’s relation with India is not determined acts as” the accuser, judge, jury and executor”. (7) by geography. It has contributed to accelerate India’s Nevertheless Indo-US partnership serves the national modernization . India has changed since 1958 when interest of both the countries. Better relation with Japan –India economic relationship was set in motion US is advantageous for India so far technological, thereby expanding it to many other areas both bilateral defence, regional security and economic collaboration and international. India’s economic rise has convinced is concerned. India is also strategically important for Japan to work with it on several regional and US to combat terrorism, providing security in the international forums ,the recent being contributions oceanic trade routes and counter China. The civil for “ unimpeded commerce in the high seas ,freedom nuclear deal enabled India to procure nuclear material of navigation and over flight emphasising openness, for its energy requirements. But US defence farms transparency, connectivity and balanced regional offering to set joint ventures in India require guarantee architecture in the Indo-Pacific region”. For about a to retain control over sensitive technology even as decade it has partnered with India along with US in joint venture junior partners. (8) Even so a resolution trilateral military exercises as per changes in its has been introduced for the second time in US national interest and security. Bilateral relation Congress supporting India’s membership of the UN between both the countries focuses on nuclear Security Council keeping in view India’s military energy, defence deals and infrastructure development. strength “respect for democracy and pluralism and The proposed bullet train work pending since 2007 is an appreciation of the dangers posed by rogue states finalised .But more important is Japan’s security and terrorist groups”.(9) problem. At the moment Japan has been encountering security threats from China and North Korea to

Decoding India’s Foreign Policy 19 counter which it is building up diplomatic pressure on resolution of Doklam standoff between China and its friends and allies. Prime Minister Abe’s visit to India might be the reason to drop it though Indo-Pacific India is significant for ensuring India’s support for covers this geographic region. It reflected creation economic sanctions against North Korea. It had of a multi polar Asia and the “range of special supported India on the Doklam standoff between India strategic and global partnership is not just limited to and China and exhorted China to maintain status quo. the bilateral and regional sphere” …but close Along with US and India it had conducted military cooperation on global issues as well”. exercises signaling that there is no power vacuum for any one nation to assert in Asia. Following An important foreign policy setback for India finalization of civilian nuclear deal in July 2017 Japan is Russia’s growing friendship with Pakistan. The has agreed to construct six nuclear power stations in change is perceptible after India purchased military India. Since the last several years it has assisted equipment from US .So far Russia was the principal India in constructing the Delhi metro, Delhi-Mumbai market of India’s defence requirements. The deal Economic Corridor, Asia Africa Growth Corridor and with US was immediately responded by Russia to invested in telecom, automobile and many other sell defence equipment to Pakistan. It also held sectors. In April 2017 Japan’s International military exercises with Pakistan and acknowledged Cooperation Agency has signed an agreement for political legitimacy of the Taliban. India was excluded road connectivity network in the North East states of from the dialogue with Afghanistan as Russia India.”The synergies between India and Japan under preferred increasing engagement with China and the rubric of the Special Strategic and Global Pakistan on Afghanistan. However, bilateral tri service Partnership are being strengthened day by day”. Now exercise (Indra) with Russia is the first with any there is a broad based solidarity between both the foreign partners at three locations in Vladivostok in countries combining economic and military sectors Eastern Russia close to Russia’s borders with China. projecting a viable counterweight to China’s growing (13)The first trilateral exercise “reflects confidence influence and power in the region. The Asia Africa in partnership evolved over 5 decades”. (14) This Growth Corridor involving multiple infrastructure policy is intended to balance India’s relation with US projects will be an alternative to China’s behemoth, and Russia as well as send a message to China. Russia Belt Road Initiative .It will ensure involvement of local wants India’s presence in its Far East where China people in designing and managing the projects which has been pushing up demographic change. is different from China’s approach of dumping its own India’s relation with US and Russia has rarely human resource. However, bilateral trade is been designed without reference to China and disappointing for import from Japan has increased in Pakistan. Its strategic relation with former USSR was the last couple of years. It is mounting diplomatic conceived after India-China war in 1962 when Sino- pressure for economic sanctions against North Korea Soviet rift intensified and US refused to assist India but India has good relation with North Korea though in enhancing its military capabilities.US approach to the volume of trade is very small .To take call on this befriend China with the good offices of Pakistan in issue India has to watch bellicosity of North Korea 1970 was the immediate reason for signing the Treaty and response of US and China .At the same time it of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet can channel diplomatic resources to diffuse tension. Union in 1971.Until its collapse India and USSR had Japan is jittery for security threats from China and converged on most of the international issues. North Korea which is reflected in the joint statement signed between India and Japan during the visit of But the scenario changed after Russia Japanese premier to India in September 2017. It is emerged as the successor of Soviet Union for several emphatic on a rule based world order in the Indo reasons like Russia’s policy of wait and watch, divided Pacific through maritime security cooperation, more opinion in Russia’s foreign policy establishment and defence exchanges and by improving connectivity. importance to Pakistan to deal with Islamic China is on the wrong side of the international law fundamentalism .This was evident when Russia and global opinion on South China Sea but unlike the supported Pakistan sponsored resolution in the UN earlier statements it is off the record. The peaceful calling for nuclear- free zone in South Asia. Its support to Pakistan was to release its prisoners of war from 20 World Focus November 2017 the Pakistani supported mujahedeen factions .The in the international sphere equating it with Pakistan rupee versus ruble was a major irritant in the while demonstrating its primacy in Asia. Indian prime repayment of debts by India while transfer of ministers’ meetings with the Chinese president in cryogenic rocket technology was held up under US regional organizations did not resolve differences over pressure. Though Russia had an anti India stance in important issues affecting India’s security due to the early years of its transition from the old regime, escalated terrorism. China’s reaction to Agni V test US supremacy combined with its gradual penetration was negative implying that India violated UN to the countries which were earlier in the Soviet Union regulations and jeopardized strategic stability in South and pressure on India on the nuclear issue drew it Asia. Notwithstanding China’s posture ,India allowed closer to India specifically in building nuclear reactors the Karmapa and the US ambassador in Delhi to in India defying the ban by the Nuclear Suppliers visit Tawang. Dalai Lama also visited Arunachal Group. Support to India during the Kargil war was as Pradesh .Both the countries have been negotiating much the success of Indian diplomacy as it was without success to resolve the border dispute covering Russia’s pressure on Pakistan to destroy its terrorism about 3488 km Line Of Actual Control. China claims infrastructure. The menace of international terrorism parts of Arunachal Pradesh as Southern Tibet while has further strengthened the bond though India’s India contends that it also covers Aksai Chin which defence ties with US has irked Russia .There is no China occupied during the 1962 war. Its posture perceptible change in the attitude of big powers remains unchanged on India –Japan strategic towards India who adhere to transactional partnership .This is evident from China’s reaction on relationship, look for advantageous commercial the eve of Abe’s visit to India that “we advocate engagement and design their strategy to suit their that regional countries should stand for dialogue interests. without confrontation and work for partnership instead of alliance”. China’s official newspaper dubbed India’s policy towards China was determined Japan as having a “narrow minded” outlook to by the geographical issues which in due course “encircle China” and that “India -Japan relationship involved competition for resources, connectivity, is just a contrivance. Growing relation between India, military modernization and commerce. Japan and US after the Doklam standoff between Notwithstanding the bonhomie between the leaders India and China is just to showcase India’s strategic of both countries in the fifties wrangle over territory potential to China. China is confident that its security culminated in war in 1962 .Since then bilateral relation cannot be challenged as the core of its policy is is mired in mistrust. Till 1958 India informed China economic cooperation in Asia and Geopolitics is that its territory included the area between the Kunlum unlikely to go against the Geo-economic and the Karakoram ranges including Aksai Chin in situation.”(16) the western sector .Therefore, China had violated India’s territorial integrity by constructing the Aksai A positive indication in Sino-Indian Chin road. This is corroborated by the “archival relationship is China did not support Pakistan prime evidence that even under the Quing dynasty during ministers’ proposal for appointment of a special envoy which China did not claim territory south of the Kunlun for Kashmir at the UN General Assembly meeting. range..there was no Chinese presence in these areas Pakistan also raised the issue in the Organisation of at all until the early 1950s.The Ladakh –Tibet Islamic Unity meeting held on the sidelines of UN boundary had been well established and General Assembly meeting held in September acknowledged by the Quing administration. It was in 2017.(17)China has reiterated that the issue is to be the 1962 operations that Chinese forces created an resolved through bilateral negotiations as per the Simla alignment further west which is broadly the current Agreement. This is in consonance with the objectives LAC”. India’s stand has not been well received, of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation of which India China’s claims have not been examined critically”. as well as Pakistan are members. In the first foreign (15) ministers meeting after India became a member the foreign ministers agreed to ratify the Anti-extremism The year 2016 was most disappointing period Convention of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. in India- China relationship. China obstructed India

Decoding India’s Foreign Policy 21 Besides there is indication of better relationship countries ,India and China ,need both for their between China and Japan. development and draw benefits from both the countries .Almost all our neighbours have positively India’s relation with Pakistan worsened in responded to China’s infrastructure development 2016. Despite personalized relationship of Indian projects .India therefore, has to make diplomatic effort prime minister with the former Prime Minister Nawaz and deliver promises to counter China’s growing Sharif, attacks on Indian military bases in Pathankot, influence in her neighbourhood. India’s policy Uri and Nagrota combined with virulent anti India towards its neighbours indicate the strategy to play a campaign which intensified after the death of Burhan lead role in the region through regional and bilateral Wani. Relationship between the two countries agreements covering a wide range of agreements worsened so much so that India did not attend SAARC on trade, defence, science and technology. However summit in Pakistan forcing its cancellation and , division and mistrust have deterred India to achieve isolation of Pakistan in the region. Pakistan’s its goals .Moreover, almost all the countries are provocations were responded with issues like pushing up development by obtaining resource from Balochistan , the Indus Water Treaty and surgical several sources thereby creating an environment of strikes across the LOC. tough competition. Pakistan’s foreign and defence policy centred India is interested in three transport projects round the apprehension about dominance by India to for achieving its connectivity goals .These are the counter which it established linkages with the Islamic North South Transport Corridor, the Chabahar world ,China and United States. Kashmir became Agreement and the Ashgabat Agreement. The the core concern and the issue of self determination Chabahar Agreement between Iran, India and combined with violation of human rights drew Afghanistan allows Indian goods to reach Kabul international attention focusing on which it created through Tehran, The Ashgabat Agreement is a tension across the disputed border .India had to draw transport corridor linking Oman, Iran, Turkmenistan, more diplomatic and military resources to counter it Uzbekistan ,Kazakhstan and Pakistan. This will thereby diluting its non alignment worldview and synchronise with the North South Corridor to provide pushing forward to the USSR orbit . Military a link from India to Europe. (18). India is also working intervention of USSR in Afghanistan again polarized on a new sea route from Chennai to Vladivostok the region. India focused on enhancing technological connecting India with north-east Asia and western capabilities and acquired nuclear power followed by Pacific region which will enable cargo transfer Pakistan. Nuclear deterrence reduced the scare of between the two cities within 24 days which currently war between both the countries .In 1999, the Kargil is 40 days . This is a major connectivity initiative in conflict put to test India’s principle of no first use view of China’s maritime silk route initiative which .The restraint that India exhibited was proof of its will connect entire South East Asia. This maritime policy for peaceful uses of nuclear power. route will juxtapose with Indo-Japan Pacific to Indian India strengthened its relation with the Gulf Ocean Corridor. Russia is jittery over China’s countries and Iran most important being the agreement presence particularly for transfer of people to this with Iran for construction of the Chabahar port . sparsely populated region thereby altering its Relation with central Asian countries namely demography. India’s engagements could balance Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also improved .Of special China’s growing presence in the region. India can importance was visit of Turkish president to India . also harness natural resources in far eastern Russia. Pro active policies were the major determinants to Opportunity to involve in the development of respond to counter problems in the neighbourhood Afghanistan has to be utilized by focusing on the areas arising from geographical, ethnic and terrorism issues. of governance and economic growth. Government Relation with Nepal skidded off the friendly route institutions in Afghanistan are weak in fighting during Oli government but is almost back to normal terrorism and ensuring security due to which economic under the present dispensation. However, China growth and employment generation is adversely successfully conducted military exercises with Nepal affected. Compared to the western institutions of .India’s neighbours swing between the two powerful 22 World Focus November 2017 governance, Indian institutions are considered as more a policy to encounter China’s response. This has to relevant by the Afghans. Therefore, India can be combined with substantial economic development concentrate on providing inputs to governance and strong military capabilities. Enhanced US structures and decision making processes. It has assertiveness in the Asia –Pacific will antagonize both announced to finance 116 projects spread over 31 and its impact will be more challenging for US and its provinces of Afghanistan for creation of community allies. For India it will be more problematic as China assets and also assisted in the construction of Salma will provoke Pakistan to intensify its adversarial dam (Afghanistan India Friendship dam) providing posture against India and increase terrorist activities irrigation facilities in Afghanistan. More such projects .So far India’s manageable good relation with China can be taken up to stabilize its economy. Expansion had contained Pakistan but now it may not be possible of transit networks is another important area. India- as China Threat will not be independent from Pakistan Iran- Afghanistan trilateral could be brought under threat. China is trying to access the vacuum that will the North –South Transit Corridor so that Iran can be created by US withdrawal, espouses diametrically be interested as the transit net work will cover a larger opposite approaches that the US has taken and will geographical area involving Central Asian States and target US allies in its diplomatic and strategic policy Russia. rather than US .In this perspective China is a “potent and long range threat to India”. India has to strengthen Conclusion: its relation with Russia to have a strategic India’s foreign policy options intertwined with the counterweight to encounter China and Pakistan .India changes in the global order and its national interest has strategic partnership agreements with Russia combined with difficult geographic and ethnic issues. which can be fine tuned to keep Russia’s friendship Decision making processes were cautious in intact. But at the same time India has to overcome maintaining balanced relationship with US, Russia and the problems in the country as the opposition parties China. But increasing engagement with US was might scuttle the decisions unless efforts are made to concomitant with declining support from Russia while raise a national consensus on major foreign policy China emerged as the invincible competitor deepening related issues. India’s aspirations to emerge as an its penetration in South Asia .Its relation with Pakistan influential member in the global sphere will be smooth has an added dimension of downplaying India in the by recalibrating its foreign policy taking into regional and international forums. consideration the domestic as well as international issues. India’s foreign policy has embedded As India crossed seven decades of existence dynamism with defined objectives .Gradually it has in an unpredictable and volatile international system pushed forward to the US orbit .This has resulted in one major contention was that its policy lacked in passive responses from Russia and aggressive originality and reacted often unsuccessfully to issues posture of China. But none of them could ignore the in the neighbourhood and outside. But the logic is economic potentialities of India .It is the most lucrative unsound as India had responded to challenges with market for defence equipment for US as well as action and reaction. Delicate internal capabilities Russia. India- US defence trade is proliferating over threw it into the ambit of big power trajectory .But it a period of ten years. It is now the major defence has acquired military and economic power, partner of US. Logistics and interoperability technological capabilities and enhanced skill in agreements have enhanced strategic partnership ensuring human security. Even so it has to fine tune between both the countries. This will not be altered its relation with Pakistan and settle territorial disputes anytime soon particularly under Trump administration. with neighbours.(19) India must also consider its But US would expect India to play a pro active role military option which would enhance its deterrence in countering China which will be challenging for India to deal with provocations from neighbours and jehadi to balance its relation with China. It was “China forces. Investment on security forces need to be Threat” that impelled the gradual process of change enhanced by equipping with all advanced military and development of strategic partnership between equipment .Also there should be cooperation and inter both the countries. India has to continue its strategic operability amongst all security elements for synergy partnership with US and brace for the fall out of such Decoding India’s Foreign Policy 23 of operation. Sensitive border areas need to be 10.https://www.voanews.com/a/india-hosts-united-states- guarded with advanced technology and force sponsored-afghan-trade-show/4047112.html deployment. Counter terrorism operations need 11.Protesting US remarks it suspended bilateral talks in collective action which involves cooperation with big August 2017. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/ powers and strengthening internal capabilities. pakistan/we-dont-need-to-satisfy-us-we-are-reassessing- ties-pakistan-defence-minister/articleshow/60511420.cms References: 12.It followed the agreement between both the countries to establish a new “2-by-2 dialogue” between the defence 1.The geographical position of India will push it into the and foreign ministers of both the countries to strengthen forefront of International Affairs “,Lord Curzon, “We are bilateral relationship. During the visit of US Secretary of in a strategic part of Asia , set in the centre of the Indian Defence to India in September,2017 a major area for Ocean ,with intimate past and present connection with discussion was president Trumps’ call for India to provide West Asia, South East Asia and Far Eastern Asia.Even if more economic assistance and development. India assured we could we would not want ignore this fact”,Jawaharlal to engage in infrastructure development but disagreed to Nehru. send troops .India, US talk terrorism ,Afghanistan, 2.Persian Gulf and Asia –Pacific. Business Standard, 27 September ,2017. During a book 3.India has espoused freedom of sea .The IOC Conference launch former senator Larry Pressler said” Under the held in Sri Lanka on the theme “peace , progress and regime of President Donald Trump India is getting more prosperity” in the Indian Ocean reiterated the concern of weight than Pakistan. Earlier both the countries were the participants on the issue of freedom of sea while treated equally, but now the situation has changed”.https:/ India’s main concern is to strengthen its relationship with /www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-getting-more-weight- the countries in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) and than-pakistan-under-us-president-donald-trump-rule-ex- increase its outreach to counter growing influence of China us-senator-larry-pre-1755052 However, India is importing in the I O R. crude oil from US with heavy transportation charges and http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/US-rhetoric-on-freedom- likely to purchase drones. of-navigation-Sri-Lanka-should-beware-of-becoming- 13.It will focus on counter terrorism tactics with the another-South-China-Sea-136311.htm. involvement of mechanised forces such as tanks and 4.http://www.milleniumpost.in/opinion/bridging-india-to- infantry combat vehicles ,artillery guns ,Indian Air Force east-asia-261684 Transport planes, naval anti-submarine ships and special 5.Conducted by the US Seventh Fleet. forces personnel. 6.In August 2017 USS John McCain sailed within 12 14.The Economic Times,(Jamshedpur),22 September 2017. nautical miles of Mischief Reef in the Spartly islands .China 15.Shyam Saran,How India Sees the World;From Kautilya reacted US gesture as an act of provocation. US conducts to Modi, Kautilya to The 21st Century ,Jaggernaut ,2017 regular military exercises in the South China Sea along 16. China has a message for India and Japan: Form with Japan and South Korea.It has appealed China to partnership, not alliance http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/ retract its military presence in the disputed region of South newsindia/china-has-a-message-for-india-and-japan-form- China Sea.Japan and South Korea have objected Chinese partnership-not-alliance/ar-AArUWh5?ocid=spartandhp. action as it violates sovereignty of the nations in the South The Doklam standoff did not impact border trade between China Sea.The USS Ronald Reagan – Washington’s largest both the countries warship in Asia – navigated the region where China has 17.http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/china- objected to US’ presence. http://www.india.com/news/ snubs-pakistan-at-un-you-are-on-your-own-in-fight-with- world/amid-tensions-with-north-korea-us-carriers- india-over-kashmir/ar-AAsl50K?li=AA9AP2o navigate-south-china-sea-2507446/ &ocid=spartandhp 7.Op.cit 18.The Economic Times, (Jamshedpur), 22 September, 2017 8.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-defence- p2 exclusive/exclusive-u-s-defense-firms-want-control-over- 19.Sovereignty over Aksai Chin is claimed by India as part tech-in-make-in-india-plan-idUSKCN1BU15O of Jammu and Kashmir and region of Ladakh but is 9.https://twitter.com/FrankPallone/status 912718603 controlled and administered as part of the Chinese 912347648/photo ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_ url autonomous region of Xingjiang.The other disputed region =http%3A%2F%2Ftimesofindia.indiatimes.com%2Findia lies south of the McMohan Line that is Arunachal Pradesh %2Fus-congressmen-introduce-resolution-in-house- .Pakistan administered Kashmir is claimed by India. backing-indias-unsc bid%2Farticleshow%2F60853 952.cms

24 World Focus November 2017 European Union at the Crossroads: Opportunities before India Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta

European Union has been buffeted not on one count but on several in the recent past. First the financial The European Union was mooted in 1945 after crisis engulfed it followed by the Eurozone crisis and Second World War. A united Europe was the answer to then the Grexit, to be followed by Brexit. Terrorism the repeated attempts of an ambitious Germany to has been one of the most talked about menace that expand, which resulted in two world wars. It several parts of EU had to suffer from. ISIS seemed progressed from the European Coals and Steel to have found a place in many European hearts. Refugee Community, to the European Free Trade Area, a crisis on account of ISIS misadventure in Syria was European Council in 1975, a common European the consequence of terrorism. The migrants streamed Currency—the Euro in 1999, and the issue of euro in from Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Pakistan. EU currency in 2002. A political union has been blocked members had to negotiate and accommodate the surge by Britain.2 of incoming refugees among themselves. Economic crisis in Greece made headlines in terms of future of EU’s relations with the external world too have the Union in the present format; which ultimately been mismanaged. EU as a whole allowed a very wide culminated into referendum on Brexit and subsequent turf to the Chinese ignoring the rising economic profile resignation of David Cameroon from prime ministership of India in the Asia-Pacific. This was noticed by EU of Britain. Brexit struck at the heart of European Union. only when India expanded its relationship with United As one of the pillars of this continental project, the States of America and became strategic partner of US. British decision to leave may well end up as a bigger Consequently, the rise of India on the global stage from loss for them than the larger continent.1 The Union United States to World Trade Organization forced EU suffered another setback when one morning it faced to make India one of its strategic partners. This the grim reality that United States upended the closest recognition was accorded to give strong boosts to EU- transatlantic relationship. Donald Trump became the India relations, and also for getting a long-term focus. third US president to pivot away from Europe. Barack Both the sides realised that there are enough mutual Obama too had less time for EU. benefits. Under such circumstances both sides started moving to smoothen the small areas of frictions The most important development which had between them. the potentials to change the political contours of Therefore, the social, political and economic European Union was number of elections that took place development within EU on the one hand and the growing in the member countries since the 2014 elections to concentration of EU on its relations with India has made European Parliament. This led to a pre-election it a subject of analysis to any keen observer of the environment in national elections of the member states, development within EU and its relations with the external in which emergence of right wing political parties was world. The wider political picture in Europe is very being expected on a wider scale. Such an expectation different from that of 2002, before the financial and was so high that at some point of time many experts economic crisis that gripped the continent and forecasted that Europe soon will be dominated by the highlighted the flaw in its architecture. Europe has been rightist forces which would escalate inter-religious witnessing not only a surge in anti-immigrant populist conflicts and probably the decimation of the Union. movements across the continent, but also been Many journalists wrote that an EU dominated by witnessing a much stronger anti-establishment rightists will behave the American way under Trump. movement, with palpable anger about the status quo.3 East and the Islamic world developed cause to be Recent past has also led to growth of substantial anti- frightened of. The electoral results at least presented Muslim sentiments across the member states. Politics an illusion of unity across the Union and on road to across the continent of Europe stands shaken-up on remapping itself. European Union at the Crossroads: Opportunities before India 25 account of the rise of Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of Eurosceptic, ultra-nationalist parties that represent the the Labour Party in United Kingdom, rise of comedian hard right. These parties played on working class and head of the Five Star Movement Bepe Grillo in insecurities in developed EU economies over Italy, Far-Right leader of the Front Nationale head immigration flows from poorer, debt-ridden European Marine Le Pen4 in France, to name but a few. This economies.8 Accordingly, in France the far-right Front paper is an endeavour to present an analysis of political Nationale under Marine Le Pen won 24.95% of the development within EU and emerging imperatives for vote and 24 out of 74 seats in the European Parliament, India. relegating the Socialist Party under Francois Hollande to the third place. In UK too, it was the anti-immigration Elections to the European Union Parliament: and anti-EU UKIP under the controversial and outspoken Eighth elections to the European Union Parliament took Nigel Farage emerged at the top with 26.77% of the place in May 2014. Since 1979 it was for the first time vote. In Austria, the Eurosceptic and ultra-right that the European Political Parties fielded candidates Freedom Party won 27% of the vote-share. In for the post of President of the Commission.5 European Denmark, the virulently anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic Parliament comprises of 751 directly elected members6, Danish Peoples Party under Morten Messerschmidt making it one of the largest democratically elected emerged at the top with 26.6% of the vote-share and assemblies in the world. EU Parliament along with its four out of the 13 seats from Denmark. The far right other institutions exercises vast and expanding legislative made a significant showing in Finland, Belgium, Greece and executive control over national governments. This and even Germany, where the right win and extremist control is the reason behind the growing opposition to National Democratic Party won seven percent of the it which manifested in the overall turnout for the election vote-share and seven seats, from nothing in 2009. In that is decreasing with each successive election. The Greece, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn won its first seats final turnout for the 2014 European Parliament elections in the European Parliament.9 Thus, barring few reached an all-time low at 42.54%, and thus marked a exception the elections to the European Parliament did continued downward turnout since the first direct reveal a popular surge of far right who were largely election. anti-establishment, anti-immigration, anti-Islam, and wary of status quo. The result led to the victory of the most seats by the centre-right European People’s Party, though it Elections in Britain: Rightists Marginalised came up short of a majority. In Denmark, France, and Elections to the 650-member United Kingdom United Kingdom rightist groups opposed to the European parliament i.e. House of Commons took place on June Union won unprecedented victories. Elsewhere, populist 8, 2017.10 Theresa May, the Prime Minster of UK parties won significant seats. In total, roughly a quarter thought of having a clear majority on her side before of all seats went to parties sceptical of the EU or protest she could enter into negotiations with EU. However, parties. This election was largely seen as an anti- results were finally disappointing as she lost the majority establishment election. This development within the EU that the Conservatives enjoyed in the pre-election House was expected in subsequent national elections of of Commons. The Conservative Party had governed member-states, which did not happen. The tussle that as a senior coalition partner from 2010 and as a majority ensued within the countries of the EU over the choice government since 2015. The politically calculated move of the next head of the powerful European Commission of Theresa, thus led to a miscalculation on her part as was fallout of the elections to the European Parliament her party fell short of nearly 13 seats after the elections. that showed a popular surge in favour of Eurosceptic7 Conservatives were defending a majority of 12 against parties. the Labour Party.11 She wanted to strengthen her hand The parties on the right of the political spectrum in the on-going negotiations on Brexit. Divorce from performed comparatively better in the richer countries the EU was the significant feature of the election of northern Europe where the impact of the economic campaign that witnessed two major terrorist attacks in crisis has been less sharply felt. This broad group Manchester and London. This led to national security includes established pro-EU centre-right parties— becoming a prominent issue towards the last phase of Angela Merkel’s centre-right coalition led by the the election campaign. Finally, May entered into alliance Christian Democratic Union (CDU), for example—plus with DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) of Arlene Foster

26 World Focus November 2017 which won 10 Seats and formed the government. of the Fifth Republic in 1958.14 This was for the first Therefore, the conservatives became dependent on the time in presidential election that neither the mainstream Far-Right DUP of Northern Ireland to form government. established socialists nor the Right-of-Centre parties The UKIP (UK Independence Party) which is another made it to the second round. The most notable change centre-right could not make it to the legislature and was the destruction of Francois Hollande’s Socialist thus an organised right opposition inside the House of Party, which won just over 6 % of the vote under the Commons were ruled out. Right wing UKIP also leadership of Benoit Hamon. Overall the high level of suffered heavy losses in local elections in May 2017, dissatisfaction with the status quo and with politicians which were the forecast for its performance in the perceived to be from within the mainstream ensured general elections to House of Common. However, some the rise of Macron on the seats of presidency and voices of rights are there within the Conservatives, Assembly. This high level of dissatisfaction with the Labour, and other smaller parties including the Liberal ruling party has become apparent over the course of Democrats. Therefore, Britain’s 2017 election has elections across Europe over the past two years.15 shown containment of the emergence of rightist However, despite such a situation right could not win elements in the mainstream politics in spite of the fact and Macron could form the government. that Conservatives had to depend on DUP to form the government. It was an election where Conservatives Elections in Netherlands: though lost to the Labour Party which gained 30 seats Mark Rutte of the Centre-Right People’s Party for more; yet formed the government. Freedom and Democracy (VVD) triumphed in national elections of Netherlands in March 2017. He defeated Elections in France: Rightists Lost Geert Wilders, leader of the Far-Right Party for Freedom Emmanuel Macron’s12 victory in the second round of (PVV). Rutte won 33 seats with 21.3% of votes in the French presidential elections has been interpreted 150-member House of Representatives. Dutch Prime variedly. Fact remains that his clear win over the Far- Minister Mark Rutte thus managed to keep his liberal Right, anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim Marine Le Pen is party in the lead in the national elections, despite a slide an indication of the failure of Far-Right populism to from 41 seats to 33. In contrast, Greet Wilders of the hold sway in Europe. Macron won 24 % of the vote PVV managed to improve his standing from 15 to 20 and Marine Le Pen 21.3 % in the first round. However, on an anti-European, anti-Muslim platform.16 Wilders in the second round Macron got 66.1% whereas Le though improved his tally, yet the government was Pen got only 33.9% of the votes. Later, the victory formed by Rutte, a centre-right party leader. was repeated by Macron and his party in the general elections to the National Assembly as well in which he Lessons from Recent Elections across EU: won 308 seats with 53.38 % of the total votes. This The recent elections in European Union member was much against the forecasts in the media and the countries have been happening amidst turmoil and observers of the rise of ‘En Marche!’ in France. He complexities that has made it increasingly difficult to thus mustered a clear majority in the 577-member comprehend. What may be visualised from the National Assembly. Macron did this in a contest where developments could be as follows: first, there is high his party fielded men and women in 50:50 ratio, level of dissatisfaction among the citizens owing to comprising a sizeable number of people (52%) who status quo, especially with the politicians perceived to were new to politics and have careers ranging from be from within the mainstream as was evident explicitly law to education and the police.13 The victory disproved in elections to the French presidency and National all exit polls and observers estimates. Assembly; secondly, the problems like high level of unemployment17 has made the youth desperate for a One may interpret it to mean that the defeat of change that could generate adequate employment for the Far-Right forces across Europe and win of the them or could provide a boost to the sagging economy; Centre-Right elements and others is as a sign of the far thirdly the feeling that the economic recovery that more complicated forces at work in European politics. followed the Eurozone crisis has left many sections of The first round of the presidential elections in France society behind among a large section of the populace; highlighted the decline and fall of the two-party system, fourthly, the ever increasing incidence of terrorist which dominated the country since the establishment activities by ISIS have made the people of the Union

European Union at the Crossroads: Opportunities before India 27 largely insecure and hence they have gone increasingly It also raised the other issues such as terrorism. This anti-Muslim; fifthly, the growing terrorism and was more evident in the Rutte’s success in Netherlands consequent refugee surge has made them anti-immigrant which hinged partly on the decidedly rightward drift because it eats into their jobs and economy. These of his politics as he too adopted a tough line on above-mentioned factors are responsible for the rising immigrants. strength of far-right. This could well be an alarming Thirdly, it has strengthened further the chances of bell as they may have become a force to be recon with, German Chancellor Angela Merkel who is scheduled even though they have failed to form government. It to face election in September 2017 towards seeking a has become obvious that elections to the European fourth term. Merkel could win September’s elections parliament presented surge of rightist forces which was on an image of the strong, no-nonsense, beacon of blunted to a great extent in national elections. Many stability in an uncertain world, and take a leading role European analysts however, view the ascendency of in greater EU integration.20 She must have been reading the Eurosceptic vote as being the marker of these the development in her neighbourhood and accordingly elections. This may be indisputable but all anti-EU parties strategizing her win. She is currently on the lead, yet cannot be bracketed as anti-immigration and ultra- she faces a strong challenger in Social Democrat nationalist political forces. For example, in Spain and candidate Martin Schulz. He is being presented as the Greece parties on the centre and far left are certainly new AfD (Alternative for Germany) led by Frauke Petry Eurosceptic and anti-establishment but are not anti- who describes herself as a ‘nationalist conservative’. immigration or xenophobic. In Italy, the incumbent AfD was set up in 2013 and since then has gained centre-left Democratic Party secured a decisive victory representation in 10 out of 16 state parliaments. Ms. with more than 40 percent of the vote-share.18 Petry is a Eurosceptic and seeks to reassert German Therefore, what was obvious in the elections to identity while being anti-Islam and denying climate European Parliament could not be repeated in the change.21 national elections of member-states. The EU also stands Fourthly, despite its electoral performance, the political divided within in terms of North and South. Those right in Europe is by no means a cohesive group. It who are losers of globalization tend to be anti- constitutes a mix of parties strung at different points establishment. Hence a through generalization of the along a Eurosceptic, anti-Muslim, anti-immigration and political development within EU is unwarranted and nationalistic axis. It ranges from relatively more may not be appropriate. moderate UKIP of UK to the neo-Nazi Jobbik in Hungary. The parties are most unlikely to cooperate Emerging Features on account of Political and come together even on the floor of European Development in EU: Parliament. The average gain of far-right parties across First major consequence has been the gains for the all 28 member states was only 1.8 percentage points Left: first such example is the ascent of Jeremy Corbyn between the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament as Labour leader in the UK who reaped advantages in elections. Moreover, the far-right parties in Netherlands, terms of 30 seats more in the mid-term elections to the Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and even Italy did much House of Commons; second example could be the rise worse in these elections than in 2009.22 of the Podemos, a left-wing political party in Spain. A Fifth the far-right has not yet been able to govern as a party that was founded in March 2014 participated in majority party anywhere in Europe. Wherever, it has the elections to the 2104 European Parliament gaining done well, it has been held at between 15-30 percent 7.98% of the national vote and 5 seats. At the elections of the vote and has only been able to enter government to the National Parliament on December 20, 2015 through coalitions. The overwhelming majority of the Podemos received 21% votes and became the third European electorate still identify with mainstream largest party in the Parliament winning 69 out of the centre-right and centre-left parties.23 Hence, the partial total of 350 seats. 2015 election was though non- success of such forces across the Union is not a conclusive leading to another elections in 2016 in which calamity but a warning as to political elites must take Podemos retained its seats. heed. Secondly, the Right also benefitted, as it successfully tapped into the migration crisis and widened it to include Despite the number of features that emerged scapegoating of the continents’ immigrant population.19 owing to the political development across EU, the most

28 World Focus November 2017 important observation was that the results of the and Canada which have 2.5% and 1.9% of EU’s trade European elections came close on the heels of an even respectively. The value of EU exports to India grew bigger electoral exercise in another very different part from 24.2 billion Euro in 2006 to 37.8 billion Euro in of the world. The Indian and European Parliament 2016, with engineering goods, gems and jewellery and elections could not have been more different in terms other manufactured goods and chemical ranking at the of purpose, scale and organization. There were some top. The value of EU imports from India also increased commonalities like voter impetus. In both instances, from 22.6 billion Euro in 2006 to 39.3 billion Euro in the vote contained a clear anti-establishment message. 2016, with at the top textiles and clothing, chemicals Interestingly enough, voters in India and Europe, in and engineering goods. Trade in services almost tripled separate but similar voices, rejected the policy packages in the past decade, increasing from 10.5 billion Euro in that had adversely impacted their national economies 2005 to 28.1 billion Euro in 2015. EU investment stocks and lives during the preceding five years.24 Accordingly, in India amounted to 51.2 billion Euro in 2015, India voted its own right-wing party to power in 2014. increasing from 44.1 billion Euro in the previous year.26 The new government under the leadership of Narendra India is also a privileged partner on innovation issues, Modi took foreign policy in its own stride with such as energy or scientific research. ambitions to give a huge spurt to India’s international personality with development in all walk of nation’s India’s relations with individual EU member life. Prime Minister Modi so far has visited many states vary in closeness, India considers the EU as a countries of the EU with aim and objective of re- whole a global partner. India and EU became strategic defining India’s relations with the West. He also took partners in 2004. A joint action plan was agreed upon the challenge of balancing India’s relations with USA, in 2005 and updated in 2008. India-EU Joint Statements EU and its individual members, as well as Russia. The was published in 2009 and 2012 following the India- emerging scenario across EU has been presenting European Union Summits. complex challenges and hence India needs to be cautious and play smart diplomacy to reap maximum benefit Therefore, this speaks volume about the level out of it. of engagement between EU and India. This is however not a sufficient volume with which India could be EU India Relations: A Preview contented with. All the 28 EU members have resident India was one of the first countries to have developed diplomatic missions in Delhi. Despite high level of relations with EU. It is currently the fastest growing engagement and hopes on both sides, India’s strategic economy in the world and a strategic partner for the partnership with the EU is underperforming. India need EU, representing a sizeable and dynamic market of 1.25 to work hard to enhance its relations with EU in a billion people. Undoubtedly, India and EU are committed manner that it is able to reap benefit for its business to further enhance their bilateral trade and investment and corporates on the one hand and could bring through the Free Trade Area (FTA). The negotiations investment and technology in civilian and defence for the same were launched in 2007 and substantial infrastructure. India is yet to make its strategic progress has been made. Current discussions are partnership with EU a meaningful one. focused on key outstanding issues that include improved India has embarked on a process of economic reform market access for some goods and services, and progressive integration with the global economy government procurement, geographical indications, that aims to put it on a path of rapid and sustainable sound investment protection rules, and sustainable growth. However, India’s trade regime and regulatory development.25 environment remains comparatively restrictive according to most multilateral institutions and trading EU is India’s number one trading partner with partners. With its combination of rapid growth, 13.5% of India’s overall trade with the world in 2015- complementary trade baskets and relatively high degree 16. This figure was well ahead of China with 10.8%, of market protection, India is an obvious partner for USA with 9.3% and Saudi Arabia with 4.3% of their an FTA for the EU. Accordingly, if India aspires to trade with EU during the same period. India was also achieve the dream of integrating its economy with the the EU’s 9th trading partner in 2016 accounting 2.2% world economy and play a near dominant role then of EU’s overall trade with the world after South Korea India will have to take due care of its regulating features

European Union at the Crossroads: Opportunities before India 29 and materialize on opportunities thrown by such aware of the fact. Consequently, she is trying her best developments as in EU at present. to put back the economy of France back on track. She also is calculative of the fact that the future of the Imperatives for India: Union depends on the economic security and growth The 13th EU-India Summit was attended by Indian Prime of France.28 India can play a very large role in this Minister Narendra Modi in March 2016. The summit, endeavour of Germany and economic need of France. like preceding iterations, resulted in a broad joint Thirdly, Britain is almost out of the Union creating wider statement covering the full gamut of India-EU ties. The space for Germany and France to assume leadership document covers a range of topics, including trade role of the Union. Under such circumstances India must and investment ties, security cooperation, climate and pay greater attention to EU. In fact it would not be energy cooperation, science and technology, and even incorrect to say that India must start looking at dealing people-to-people ties, but doesn’t contain any landmark with the EU via Merkel’s Germany, hoping Berlin would accomplishments that would suggest that the EU-India be able to unravel knots beyond India’s ken at present. relationship has broken out of relative stagnation.27 This was quite evident during Modi-Merkel meeting Therefore, it would not be out of place to claim that when Modi profusely praised Merkel’s leadership and thus far the strategic dialogue between the two has she too took it in the right earnest. Modi made a smart been performing below the expectations and has been move by standing firmly by the side of Merkel at this high on rhetoric and low on substance owing to several hour of turmoil within the Union, when Merkel takes reasons on both sides. on the mantle of European leadership. This must be taken forward in a logical way to build and strengthen Contemporary circumstances in EU have relationship. thrown an opportune moment for India to take the Fourthly, India and its ilk have no choice but to work strategic dialogue and partnership to a level in towards containment of carbon emission, and arrest accordance with need, expectations and aspirations. global warming for cleaner future. Therefore, when For India it has always been difficult to deal with EU America under Trump has pulled out of the Paris as a whole than with individual partners like UK, Accord on Climate Change, it has thrown a huge Germany and France. However, at this opportune opportunity for India to assume the leadership for the moment Prime Minister was more than appropriate cleaner future. Strong friendly ties with Germany and when he told EU leaders at the 13th EU-India Summit in Merkel as leader of the European Union will act as a 2016 that India was the “lone light of hope” in the boon for India in this endeavour. Present G-20 meeting world economy. Accordingly, India must walk back in which it became G-19 versus America on issues into Europe at this fascinating moment for following pertaining to climate change has further made it obvious. reasons: Hence, India must be on the side of Germany and Firstly, factors like the anti-incumbency, Eurozone France which shall also redefine its role in international Crisis, unemployment, terrorism, immigrants that has politics and add further value to its international led to sea-change in electoral results of Presidency and personality. Assemblies across Europe has created tremendous Fifthly, the way India and China compete for economic space for India to step-in. It is always easier to build- and strategic space in South Asia, South East Asia and relations with new leaders with new ideas and many other regions of the world; in the same way they commitment to its people. India with leverage in terms could compete in Europe as well. According to a of fastest growing economy, soft-power potentials can German official, “China is building a world trading and tread-in into Europe in an easier way by both cultivating political order by itself. It’s the largest trading partner EU as well as individual member states. Therefore, the but it’s not a source of comfort.”29 Therefore, once diplomatic community within India need to grab the again given this mind-set India must become proactive opportunity as it will bring investments, technology, and plan its moves to enhance the level of connectivity business and jobs to Indians. and engagement with the Union in general and with Secondly, if Germany is the economic giant within member states in particular. India under such European Union then France is the natural political and circumstances need to work with the Union without strategic leader. However, without German’s economic taking China into consideration, rather should try to might France doesn’t count for much. Merkel is well

30 World Focus November 2017 curve out a space for itself alongside China into the and maintain be allowed to continue.30 The lesson is EU. not that India should isolate itself from the global Sixthly, EU’s lack of strategic vision in defining its global economy but that it should carefully manage its relations role makes it difficult for it to respond effectively to with the regional and world economy. Managing its new challenges such as the rise of India. India should relations with EU on the one hand, and individual leverage its growing economic and political profile in members on the other is a part of this lesson. the international system to impress upon the EU that it is time for the EU to act seriously on its promise to There would be enough of challenges on make India a strategic partner in real sense of the term. India’s path while pursuing the imperatives mentioned An expeditious conclusion of the India-EU Free Trade above. First challenge would the issue of EU mind-set Agreement (FTA) would be an important first step. which still views India as a regional South Asian power Modi’s dynamism could act as a catalyst in this regard and continues to equate India with Pakistan. The provided there is a genuine political will for the same. tendency to equate India and Pakistan has made EU to FTA will increase India-EU trade and relations along see security issues through the old lens, trying to strike with a more balanced agenda and a stronger partnership a fine balance between the two neighbours. Therefore, in all areas of cooperation in due course. India will have to devise ways of initiating the change Seventhly, India has enough leverage in terms of soft of EU mind-set which could be made possible only by power. Its traditional medicine (Ayurvedic) and Yoga being pro-active in its pursuit. Secondly, British Prime remains popular since the mid-19th century when it was Minister Theresa May’s stringent visa policy towards introduced in Europe. Other forms of soft power Indian professionals has come as a major stumbling potentials of India could also be a source of attraction block to the FTA, which has been in the works since to EU population. Hence India should try to reach EU 1997. More such challenges could be thrown before and its members by devising means and mechanism. India in future if India fails to visualize in advance the India could promote its own resources of soft power need and aspirations of EU and its members in the light in EU in an aggressive manner. This will bring trade, of changing scenarios. commerce and enhance people-to-people contact. Eighthly, Germany did not mind the exit of Greece, Conclusion: and now is not hard on Brexit, and probably it may European Union was awarded Nobel Peace prize in even allow other like Italy to go the UK way. Germany 2012 for its tremendous success towards integration. has acquired a more loyal hinterland to its east, which It has been indeed splendid and unparalleled. Maastricht could well mark the beginning of a new “Pax Treaty of 1992 turned into a milestone when European Germanica”. By the time dust settles in Europe the Economic Community (EEC) was transformed into emerging multipolar world will come to stay. In 1997- European Union (EU). 1999 turned out to be remarkable 98 when Asian Financial Crisis took place it consolidated in the history of EU with the introduction of Euro, the Chinese power in Asia. Accordingly, the European common currency. The evolution of EU since 1957 financial crisis will gradually lead to the consolidation when six countries Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, of German as geo-economic power in Europe. Under Luxembourg and the Netherlands came to form EEC such circumstances India must strengthened its one- has been outstanding. However, of late the group has to-one relations with Germany on the one hand, and developed groups within the group31 and is indeed on EU as a whole on the other. Modi’s recent visit to turmoil. EU today presents a more fragmented picture. Germany has certainly strengthened the Indo-German With Brexit finally on its way the membership remains ties and is a smart diplomatic move by India towards at 27. Even the 27 seems to be struggling to Germany. Therefore, the ensuing spirit must be accommodate its divergences and hold-on together. maintained with both Germany and EU. Their high ambitions of having a common foreign Ninthly, the Grexit and Brexit crises have brought policy, security policy, defence policy, seem to be falling tremendous lessons for Indian economic policy makers. apart and majority of them prefer to manage their own India’s economy which was on the verge of capsizing foreign and defence policy. With Brexit the warning in 1990-91, is now not only robust but also one of the signal against the slogan of ‘more Europe’, EU members fastest growing economy. However, the debate on the will be left to fend for themselves. The emergence of extent of global interdependency that India should create far-right forces have turned out to be another warning

European Union at the Crossroads: Opportunities before India 31 signal of escalation and consequent demise of the Union on economic, social, political, security and cultural front if not contained and addressed meaningfully at the right while conducting its relations with the external world. moment. This could be made possible only when Indian bureaucracy provides a strong support to the initiatives At this moment the political elites who are into of the Prime Minster. The need of the hour is to deepen governance across the Union must not chase after the the political dimensions of the relationship through far-right’s polarising and xenophobic rhetoric, rather enhanced cooperation on foreign policy, security and they need to think hard about the things that unites human rights; finalise the FTA in order to address trade them and how they can address major issues like and investment irritants, enhance cooperation on energy, climate change and economic growth together. The technology transfer, skill development, and urban G-20 summit in July 2017 has revealed the same kind development, educational and cultural exchange. India of spirit which must not only be maintained but be also need to garner the support of EU and its individual taken forward inside the Union. Far-right threat has a members in its bid to a permanent seat of Security positive dimension in terms of forcing political Council; membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group leadership, especially of the left variety to focus their (NSG). minds on the solutions of Europe’s problems. India could be a helping hand in this endeavour. Footnotes 1 Indrani Bagchi, “Angela Merkel is the unlikely heroine of Europe getting its mojo back—and India can play a larger role here”, The Times of India, June 3, 2017. EU though is managing the economic growth, 2 S. L. Rao, “Paying for One’s Sins”, The Telegraph , July 22, 2015. yet continues to battle with recession, deflation, slow 3 Vidya Ram, “Appetite for Change”, Frontline, May 16, 2017, p.63. 4 A deeply Eurosceptic leader and she advocates a referendum on EU membership like the one that took growth, and internal conflict. The present place in UK. 5 The Lisbon Treaty, which entered into force on December 1, 2009, provides that the European circumstances in EU has been interpreted and Parliament shall endorse or veto the appointment of the President of the European Commission on the basis of a proposal made by the European Council, taking into account the European elections (article understood differently by different observers: one group 17, paragraph 7, of the Treaty of European Union). This provision was applied for the first time during the elections of May 2014. opines that it is gradually going to fall-out; another group 6 Apportionments of seats in the Parliament are governed by article 14 of the Treaty of Lisbon. According, to this article the European Parliament shall be composed of representatives of the Union is of the opinion that the integration will deepen in due ’s Citizens. They shall not exceed seven hundred and fifty in number, plus the President. Representation course as it has tremendous potentials to come out of of the citizens shall be digressively proportional, with a minimum threshold of six members per Member State. No Member State shall be allocated more than ninety-six seats. The 2014 election was the first the crisis; yet a third group says that it may continue to apply the apportionment of seats provided by the Lisbon Treaty. 7 It means those who are sceptical of the European Union. like this as it is difficult to achieve unity on account of 8 Parvathi Menon, “Reforming the European Project”, The Hindu, June 09, 2014. it being a heterogeneous group with differing situations 9 Ibid., no.8. 10 It is essential to note here that under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, an election had not been and ambitions. Whatever be the fate of the EU, the due until May 7, 2020, However, a snap election was called by Prime Minister Theresa May after David Cameroon resigned from the office of Prime Ministership on account of owning moral responsibility emerging circumstances have thrown a sea of for a majority yes vote in the Referendum on Brexit. Theresa wanted to have a fresh mandate from the people before she could start the negotiations on smooth withdrawal from the EU. The Snap election opportunities for India, which must be capitalized upon. was ratified by the necessary super-majority in a 522-to-13 vote in the House of Commons on April 19, 2017. 11 Conservatives though lost number of seats but its vote percent was intact as it mustered 42.4% of India could improve its position, its credibility total vote against the 40 % of Labour’s vote share, a closest result in vote share between the two major parties since 1974, and the highest vote share for an opposition party science 1970. Surprisingly most and its importance for European Union. However, to of the smaller parties lost in terms of their vote share as well as Seats. 12 The name of his newly formed party is La Republique En Marche! (On the Move). It was founded in have a greater connectivity with the EU, India need to 2016. It was founded by Mr. Macron, a 39-year old former investment banker with Rothschild. He joined President Hollande’s cabinet for two years as the Economy and Industry Minister before quitting think of some economic give and an understanding of to launch his own political party. Macron is seen as pro-business, pro-Europe, and a social liberal. 13 Vidya Ram, “Cautious Optimism”, Frontline, June 9, 2017, p.63. the way the Europeans think. India’s foreign policy 14 Ibid., no.13., p.62. 15 Ibid., no.13., p.63. has been transforming gradually in the post-cold war 16 Rakesh Sood, “In Europe, the shifting sands of 2017”, The Hindu, April 17, 2017. era, as it is moving far away from the philosophy of 17 Unemployment among 18 to 25 year olds is nearly at 25% in France alone. See Vidya Ram, “Appetite for Change”, Frontline, May 16, 2017, p.64. non-alignment, self-identification with the developing 18 Ibid., no.8. 19 Ibid., no.13, p.63. world, and mistrust towards the West. The major plank 20 Ibid., no.1. 21 Ibid., no.16. of India’s foreign policy today is ‘Think West” or 22 Ibid., no.8. 23 Emile Chabal, “The warnings from France’s far-right”, The Hindu, December 16, 2015. “Connect with the West”. Demise of Soviet Union has 24 Ibid., no.8. 25 See for detail http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/india/ Retrieved on brought India closer to United States and European July 07, 2017. 26 Ibid., no.25. Union. Prime Minster Modi presents the picture of a 27 Ankit Panda, “Where Do European Union-India Relations Stand?”, The Diplomat, March 31, 2016, pragmatic leader with strong urge to create a new India, www.thediplomat.com 28 Ibid., no.1. in terms of its international personality. How far he will 29 As quoted in Indrani Bagchi, Ibid., no.1. 30 Sanjay Baru, “The Greek crisis and an imperfect EU”, The Hindu, July 02, 2015. be able to achieve, only the future will reveal? A lot 31 The Eurozone consists of 19 out of 28 members; the 31-member European Economic Area has the EU 28 together with Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway; Schengen membership stands at 26 while would depend on the way India becomes pro-active NATO has over 20 European members. See Ibid., no.16.

32 World Focus November 2017 Doklam Perspectives and China’s 19th Communist Party Congress G. Kishore Babu The incidents at Doklam have given Indians the honour they lost in the Indo Chinese war in 1962. After the standoff in Doklam India is a equal patner to all nations of the world, no longer a smaller power as it used to be treated earlier. According to Pravin Sawhney of Force, the Chinese had Informed India three weeks in advance about the road building in Doklam. Instead of talking, India kept quiet and asked its Army to block the road construction on June 18th when it started. It is a bold political statement. In the world of 2017, where China is the dominant financial power buying patronage and goodwill with money to keep its sustained economic progress going and trade imbalance with India which is about USD 50 billion plus. India stood up for a friend Bhutan to the shock of a China and all nations - thus breaking the myth of China’s invincibility. This is the first time an Asian country has taken on the military might of China headlong. Post - Doklam, the image of India in the eyes of Japan and the US has gone up many times. Getting proper trade and meaningful technology transfers for ‘Make in India’ will now be much easier. Doklam had a significant influence on all one-to-one meetings Indian Prime Minister Modi had with BRICS leaders. India could back its words with military power on the ground, our road and rail connectivity still being built to reach to the Chinese levels. So Much so RSS chief Mr Mohan Bhagwat with reference to Doklam said that it has been demonstrated clearly that the nation is no longer ready to be cowed in matters relating to defence and security with that of China. India strategically segregated all aspects of diplomacy, all trade relations and delegations going to China and coming from China continued as if nothing happened. This smartness of India to look at different issues objectively and not spoil the whole picture of relations with China was something that the hawks and doves in China never expected of India. So much so that China agreed and accepted the reference to Pakistan based terrorist organisations like LeT and JeM in the joint statement issued in BRICS also without any reference to China’s Belt and Road initiative around the world and it’s claims in the South China Sea. But we could nevertheless get our military hardware and acclimatised troops in place fast. In the world of perception of Chinas supremacy to the entire world, this was a big hit - a psychological hit the ramifications that will be felt for a long time. This standoff for 75 days without blinking is more significant than winning a limited localised war against China. The tension is off on the borders and the 19th China Communist Party Congress is over and with key Doklam negotiators Yang Jiechi, special representative being retained and Zhao Zongqi, state counsellor in border talks with our National security adviser Ajit Doval have been promoted to Central Committee of the Communist Party and in all probity Yang Jiechi may also become the vice- Premier in charge of Foreign Affairs. India has to increase its vigil on the entire border from East to West with China, with good if not great border infrastructure and perfect communication network allowing our troops to keep a greater vigil even in remote and difficult areas, as all the border is un-demarcated as is what it is by word of mouth, which China chooses to remember and forget as it chooses. President Xi Jinping says China is only interested with India to have good trade and align its economic policies to have better trade and investment policies for firms from India, but refuses to talk about solving the territory issues. He has not agreeing to Prime Minister Modi’s appeal to mutually agree to the LAC alignment, thereby minimising cross border issues. As our Army Chief rightly says, “The LAC starting from northwest of the Karakoram Pass and ending at Arunachal Pradesh, has not been demarcated and is virtually passed on by word of mouth.” Until the LAC is demarcated properly and there are no doubts regarding its alignment such incidents like Doklam will occur in other areas of the border. Today with Xi Jinping as the elected strong leader of China and pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across the world and with India having a strong pragmatic leader in Narendra Modi who is also pursuing a big development agenda in India and the neighbourhood, and both saying that development of their countries is their agenda, it is high time we sorted out the boundary problems through pragmatic talks. As India is important, the Chinese President can well put his childhood friend, Li Zhanshu (to look after relations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi) who like himself comes from a revolutionary family, Li Zhanshu is a member of the Political Standing Committee (who is like Ajit Doval is the Indian Prime Minister’s National Security Adviser) as both Xi Jinping and Li Zhanshu were party secretaries in 1983, who now, for President Xi Jinping has an overview of all diplomatic relations of China and is also looking after liaison with Russian president Vladimir Putin. There is a strong possibility if the Chinese President for some reason does not decide to continue after 2022 or drop some titles like Deng Xiaoping and still be supreme leader or decides to follow the Putin Formula of rotating his job with someone else, the person could well be Li Zhanshu. Doklam Perspectives and China’s 19th Communist Party Congress 33 The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia Sudhir Kumar Dara, Sudhir Kumar Garhwal & Ambrish Dhaka

1.Introduction of the world’s longest pipelines, which crosses 2,300 The Central Asian neighbourhood of Afghanistan km from the Caspian Sea to Xinjiang province. The consists of large energy resources with sizeable China National Petroleum Corporation Company has volumes of hydrocarbon reserves present in stakes in the Kashagan oil field. It also has ownership Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan bordering in several key oil fields in the vicinity of the city of the eastern and southern part of the Caspian Sea. Aktobe. As the main gas exporter, Turkmenistan also The hydel and geo-thermal energy sources present opened its reserves to China through the Central Asia- in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have gained attention in China gas Pipeline. By 2020 China would be importing the light of electricity transmission possibility through around 65 billion cubic meters of gas from Wakshan corridor in Badakhshan region of Turkmenistan as per the data released by the China Afghanistan. The region has been viewed as vital National Petroleum Company. Uzbekistan also began source of energy supply by the new energy seekers supply of gas to China through the latest pipeline on the periphery of Central Asia, notably, China with network under the 2013 bilateral energy deal worth 1.4 billion people in the east, and India with its 1.3 $15 billion. China is also financing construction of two billion people in the south. Kazakhstan with its output refineries in the towns of Tomok and Kara-Balta (in of roughly 1.6 million barrels per day, exports almost Kyrgyzstan). Oil is being supplied by CNPC run two 90 percent of its production [1]. The Baku-Tbilisi- oil fields in neighbouring Kazakhstan. They produce Ceyhan network is among the pioneering attempts 1.3 million tonnes of refined product annually. It has by the Central Asian States to diversify their been estimated by IAEA that China will import up to consumer base. Turkmenistan is largely a producer 50% of region’s oil and gas by 2020, signalling a and exporter of natural gas. It was the first state to noticeable shift in Central Asia’s energy flow from export gas via non-CIS infrastructure in 1997, when west to the east [2].China has emerged as a it forged an agreement with Iran. The second pragmatic partner for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and significant venture came as China-Central Asia gas in Tajik mining sector, Beijing has invested more than pipeline, which enabled Ashgabat to transport its $100 million. According to one calculation by signing hydrocarbons directly to China. It gave stimuli to the gas pipeline deal with China these countries will Central Asian states to connect with big consumers, attract additional investment of $3 billion. China has such as China and India. The close geographical become favourable and beneficial partner for connectivity of the Central Asian producers has Kyrgyzstan also. allowed China to extend and diversify its imports by cultivating cordial relations with producing countries The issue of energy security has geopolitical in the region. China began heavy investment since and international implication. The process of energy 1990s towards building pipelines and refineries in the security is maintained by strategic planning to ensure Central Asian region. This was win-win situation for the diversity of supply source, fuel and flexibility and China and the Central Asian states, who needed efficiency in the energy sector [3]. There are wide economic opportunity to raise their output and living ranging issues that affect energy security planning standards. like access to fuel (at reasonable pricing system), safe processing and transit of the fuel, and protective cover Kazakhstan, the region’s top oil producer and for the environment and its resources [4]. Central 9th largest country in the world is the most significant Asia is very important for India’s energy security due energy partner of China in Central Asia, both sharing to its increasing demand for energy and also the need the land border of 1,700 km. China has its hold over for India to nurture alternative sources of energy to 20% of Kazakhstan’s oil production and has built one lessen its dependence on West Asian resources. To 34 World Focus November 2017 implement this initiative, India’s state owned company in Afghanistan. The conflict has seen ebb and flow in (ONGC) has made investments in Kazakhstan over last decade, but there is an increase in violence since the past decade. It has acquired stakes in the 2014 drawdown. The efforts to re-negotiate the Kurmangazy and Alibekmola oil fields in the Kazaks energy linkages started with key stakeholders, like autonomous region of Caspian Sea [5]. Kazakhstan Turkmenistan (the source of gas), India (the big also has significant reserves of uranium, which can consumer), Pakistan (both consumer and transporter) be factored into India’s civilian nuclear programme. and Afghanistan (mainly transporter) started taking Uzbekistan has a modest amount of hydrocarbon interest at the behest of Asian Development Bank, reserves and the third largest uranium deposits in the who invited parties that would provide financial world. Tajikistan too has good amount of uranium guarantees for the project. ore. The Tajik mines located at Taboshahr (north of Khujand), Adrasman, Mailisui, Uighur and Tyuya- This paper is a GIS-based study to chart the Muyun provided uranium for processing in Chkalovsk most suitable route with least risk through the least (Leninabad) plant during the Soviet times. Thus, the cost path analysis method. It takes into account the Central Asian uranium reserves can be accessed by difficult terrain of Afghanistan and the threats of India for the sustenance of its Civilian Nuclear insurgency as deterrents to pipeline routes. Both, the program. factors are coupled to finally demonstrate the vulnerability over the territory and then the GIS Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are weak in module is run to locate the path with the least hydrocarbon reserves, but they have sizeable potential resistance. The model is run for different period of to generate hydro-electric power. Tajikistan has insurgency and for the overall impact as well providing mountainous terrain with vast unexplored hydro- valuable information about the feasibility of energy electric potential. Its per square kilometre generation transportation routes via Afghanistan. This model can potential has been estimated up to 2 million kilowatt provide suitable decision making support for the TAPI hours of hydel resources [6]. Hence, this capacity is pipeline that has been stuck due to unpredictable sufficient for long term hydel power generation. It is relations among neighbours across South and Central true that during the summer season Central Asia has Asia and also due to the lack security infrastructure surplus electricity production, while the South Asian in Afghanistan. region reels under severe power cuts. Therefore, South Asia can grab this opportunity for investments The study propagates the strategic and in these states and have a proper and secure power viability vision of the project. Most parts of supply from the region. Thus, Central Asia provides Afghanistan are considered extremely risky zone for a range of conventional and non-conventional energy any investment in infrastructures. Similar conditions resources that can broaden the energy security base prevail in Balochistan province of Pakistan from of the South Asian countries. where TAPI pipeline is supposed to pass through. Along with these issues, the topography of The conflict in Afghanistan impeded the post- Afghanistan and Balochistan is rugged and harsh too, Soviet exaltations of energy business that viewed which have consequences for geoeconomic Central Asia as a putative supplier to insatiable energy requirements of the project. Although there are range demand of growing South Asia. This was sensed by of variables which affect gas pipeline projects and American company Unocal who had almost usually a study is carried out to evaluate the impact succeeded in forging pact with Taliban then suddenly of environmental factors and socio-economic risk had to abandon all under the welter of rising crises in assessment; the aim of this study is to carve out the the West Asia and Taliban showing resistance to the path while minimising terrain and terror barriers and US goals in the region. The rest is history as the post- hence only these two are incorporated into this study. 9/11 relations between Taliban and the US kept at As the intensity of violence is variable among the bay any feasibility of Central Asian gas reaching South selected time frame, four time period i.e. 2001, 2009, Asia. The NATO has maintained its resistance against 2014 and total of sixteen years are selected for the the Taliban militia who are trying for a regime change analysis and comparison.

The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia 35 2.Af-Pak Corridor for Energy Transport development and domestic production. Similarly, the The South Asian region has energy deficiency due to products of South Asian countries can be exported to its vast population size in comparison to Central Asia. Central Asian countries, e.g. tea, coffee and The South Asian economies have received boost after machinery and instruments for modernisation and the fall of Taliban and the growing attention towards upgradation of the agricultural sector as well as the the Afghan economy. The South Asian economies of industrial infrastructure in the region[9]. The India and Pakistan want affordable, secure and Afghanistan route can open up Eurasian hinterland feasible flow of energy to sustain their current for Russia and the Central Asian states. There have economic growth. South Asian countries are seeking been efforts from the Indian government to negotiate to receive the electricity and natural gas resources TAPI pipeline construction. It has been guaranteed from the neighbouring Central Asian countries, by Asian Development Bank, and has estimated cost especially Turkmenistan. The energy trade between of $7.6 billion. This project is destined to transport the energy deficit South Asia and energy rich Central more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas from Asia should be beneficial to each other. The two logical Turkmenistan’s gas fields through Afghanistan and steps conceived in the early years of independence Pakistan to India. The inter-governmental committee of Central Asian states in order to forge regional (IGC) had series of negotiations to make TAPI a cooperation were the construction of natural gas reality in 2012. The first significant step was the pipeline and electricity transmission line. These two finalisation of the Transit Fee. The transit fee rate projects came to be known as, the Central Asia South was put at 49.5 cents per million BTU in 2012. India Asia (CASA-1000) electricity transmission line for shall pay this much amount each to Afghanistan and supplying electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Pakistan. And, Pakistan will pay this much amount to to Afghanistan, Pakistan and possibly to India and Afghanistan only. Pakistan is expected to get $200 the TAPI, a natural gas pipe line to export gas from million plus and Afghanistan is expected to get $400 Turkmenistan to India via Pakistan and Afghanistan. million plus annually. The second significant step came CASA-1000 is anticipated to be under operation by in 2014 in the form of formation of TAPI Pipeline 2018 despite roadblocks to its implementation[7]. Company Limited (TPCL) as the multi-national TAPI is expected to be completed by 2019. There company entrusted to implement the TAPI project. haven’t been any energy giants on board so far and GAIL, India, Afghan Gas Enterprise, Inter State Gas the Turkmen gas company is working for its Systems (Private) Limited and Turkmen Gas have implementation. The 1814-km pipeline is expected to equal stake in this firm[10]. This project is facing deliver 33 billion cubic metres of gas annually. The problems, like lack of investments by international Dubai-based Dragon Oil is another firm that is working companies etc. India and Pakistan, having appetite with Turkmen state gas agency for the construction for energy, are locked in web of investment and of pipeline. Some Japanese and Turkish firms too have “pipeline politics”. However, both the countries have expressed interest to expand the output capacity of endorsed a Trans-Afghan gas pipeline from the Galkynysh energy basin that would supply more Turkmenistan’s Yolotan Osman (Galkynysh) gas fields than 90 billion cubic metres of gas annually [8]. to Fazilka, Punjab in India[11]. The problem of connectivity lies with in the South Asian framework Afghanistan with its strategic and geopolitical due to the conflict raging in Afghanistan. location lies in the junction of Central, South and West Asia. The ancient silk route played a pivotal role in 3.TAPI & Terrorism in Af-Pak Region the region’s economic development. Afghanistan is The story of TAPI pipeline goes back to mid-nineties playing the role of a bridge to facilitate access to the when Turkmenistan was struggling to diversify its resources of Central Asian region. The Central Asian exports in order to revive its economy and reduce States look towards the South Asian markets for their dependence on Russia. The Argentinean energy giant economic growth and prosperity. It is suitable for them Bridas proposed a pipeline in 1994 which would to transport fuel, natural gas and electricity located transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan in the north of Afghanistan to South Asian countries via Afghanistan which could be extended to India in of Pakistan and India to boost their industrial future. Bridas was the first global energy firm which

36 World Focus November 2017 engaged in exploration and transportation of energy challenge to its dominance in the region. In November resources in Turkmenistan after dissolution of USSR. 1998, Taliban delegation was invited by Bridas to Bridas initiated negotiations with Afghan warlords and discuss the future prospects of recognizing their bid; Pakistan and successfully signed agreements to Pakistan forced Taliban to send another delegation prepare a feasibility study and get hold of right of to Unocal as well. Spring offensive of 1998 in way for construction and operation of pipeline. Bridas Afghanistan forced both companies to reconsider the also initiated discussions with other global energy project viability. Back in US, growing human right giants, including Unocal, the US energy giant, to take and feminist movement demanded deferment of part in the consortium which it will create to build the negotiations with Taliban because of their gross pipeline. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan stipulated re- human right violations and mistreatment of women. negotiations of the existing contracts with Bridas and Following the US offensive on Bin Laden’s camps, demanded more profit from the production. As Bridas Unocal officially left the CentGas consortium in declined to entertain these demands, Turkmenistan December 1998. Pakistan together with Turkmenistan ceased the gas field contracts with Bridas. Major and Taliban endeavoured to revitalize the project in reason for these actions was linked to Unocal’s April 1999 but none of the global energy giants interest in constructing the similar pipeline together showed interest to lead the consortium as the war with the Saudi Arabia’s state owned company Delta. continued between Taliban and opposition [12]. After These interests were part and parcel of shifting foreign 9/11, US invasion of Afghanistan once again revived policy of US towards Central Asia after dissolution the idea and agreement of intent was inked between of USSR. The US sought political and economic Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan leadership liberalization in Central Asian Republics which would [13]. Asian Development Bank has been assigned make investment hassle free for US companies. the role of secretariat and lead development partner Turkmen leadership saw an opportunity to engage for the TAPI project since 2002. With the support of with the US administration and major US firms and Asian Development Bank, preliminary feasibility inked an agreement with Unocal and Delta. The report was prepared in 2003 and updated report was Unocal established CentGas consortium including completed in 2008 [14]. Preliminary feasibility reports Delta, Gazprom (Russia’s state owned company) and in 2003 indicated that the project would not be Turkmengas (Turkmenistan’s state owned company) economically viable without India’s partaking in the as stakeholders. The struggle between both the Trans-Afghan pipeline project. India also expressed companies positioned Afghanistan into pivot role in its interests to join the project to ensure its energy New Great Game. The US administration and newly security and fill the demand-supply gap. India elected government of Pakistan in 1996 openly officially became part of the Trans Afghan pipeline supported the advent of Taliban to power in project and the project has since been called TAPI Afghanistan and supported Unocal’s bid to build the pipeline project at the 10th steering committee meeting pipeline. As Bridas inked agreements with Taliban in 2008. and General Dostum in November 1996 to build the pipeline, it alarmed the Unocal and Pakistan leadership The geopolitics of energy transport spins which then engaged with Taliban to persuade them around oil and gas, which have become geopolitical to support Unocal. Taliban was watching this hustle commodities rather than only trading goods. for a couple of years and became subtle in providing Theoretical formulations of energy transport projects any commitments in order to get a higher bid from are driven by processes of demand and supply coupled these companies. Both companies were trying day with scientific manoeuvres but practically they are and night to entice the Taliban. In 1997, Unocal largely determined by the kind of geopolitical context announced the expansion of CentGas consortium in which they have to operate. Generally, a geopolitical thereby including oil companies of Japan (INPEX, competition is observed with respect to energy ITOCHO oil exploration Co. Ltd.), South Korea transmission in order to maintain regional hegemony (Hyundai Engineering and Construction Co. Ltd.) and and economic advantage [15]. TAPI pipeline is most Pakistan but Gazprom declined to be part of important project at present which is believed to consortium in the wake of US support to Taliban and quench the energy demands of India and Pakistan

The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia 37 and diversify exports of Turkmenistan[16]. There are views regarding the practicability of the energy numerous idioms used for TAPI, viz., “More than a transport through troubled lands. Leigh (2014) project”, “Super highway of cooperation and suggested that there are no ‘peace pipelines’ coordination”, “Peace Pipeline”, “Magic Glue” are a anywhere in the world on the contrary, peace is a few which are frequently used for the pipeline. precondition for commissioning of pipelines [22]. Though, the proposal for the project was first mooted Nathan et al (2013) maintain that joint ventures like two decades ago, geopolitics of the region has delayed TAPI facilitate improvements of relations between commissioning of pipeline. As key actors of South participating countries and forge stability in the region. Asia, Pakistan and India play an important role in Economic deterrence can assist in preserving mutual shaping the geo-politics of the region. But the mistrust interests and forging positive attitude towards the and dispute among them and their respective roles other participants. Afghanistan-Pakistan and India- and competition in Afghanistan has made the situation Pakistan often observe border tensions among them; worse [17]. Relation between these two countries economic deterrence approach can help maintain are driven more by domestic politics rather than peace and stability among them. economics. Despite sharing similar historical legacy and ethnic cultural affinity, both the nations lack The prime issues which concerned the cooperation and unity[18]. planners and designers of TAPI pipeline route were related to third party interference and rugged hilly US strongly support the TAPI pipeline as it terrain of Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan. With is in confluence with its version of new Silk Road the US invasion of Afghanistan and overthrow of [19]. Some scholars believe that one of the most Taliban from power in 2001, regional political important reasons US invaded Afghanistan was to dynamics of Afghanistan changed and continues to make it a conduit between Central and South Asia to be fluid. The US forces together with NATO and impede the dominance of Russia in the region. Bush Northern Alliance tried to stabilise the situation but administration made completion of TAPI as a core couldn‘t accomplish what they anticipated. Taliban part of its Afghanistan war strategy. For this very in order to re-establish their power and regain control reason, US won’t leave Afghanistan even after so over Kabul, increased insurgency and posed threat much financial and human loss as this pipeline will be to the Afghan state. The nexus of ISI-Taliban a winning game for commodity traders, global finance backfired in Pakistan and several extremist groups majors and energy giants. US with help of NATO emerged such as TTP, LeT and JuA etc. and intensity and other mercenaries could bargain to put security of terror activities increased in Pakistan [23]. forces on TAPI and take 24/7 peek on Russia and According to the Global Terrorism Database, instances China. TAPI has the potential to undermine Russia’s of terrorism and insurgency continuously increased dominance in the region but Turkmenistan opposed from 2001 onwards in Afghanistan as well as any involvement of Russia in the project. Pakistan. A sudden increase was observed in 2012 which could be partly related to US decision of The route planned for TAPI has to pass drawdown of military troops from Afghanistan. through area dominated by rival war lords in Taliban was constantly trying to regain control over Afghanistan and separatist insurgency in Balochistan. Kabul after withdrawal of the US and NATO troops Also according to some international security experts, from Afghanistan. It increased the intensity of “Quetta Shura”, the top of Taliban hierarchy is based offensives across Afghanistan. The maximum in Quetta, the capital of Balochistan [20]. Sadat has number of instances were recorded in the month of argued for more involvement of local communities May, June, July, August and September. It is the time and leaders[21]. Afonin (2011) argued that when Taliban launches it’s so called “spring offensive” negotiations with Pashtun and Baloch leaders won’t which means start of the fighting season after work because of rampant corruption, lawless state termination of winters. Though Pakistan recorded and underdeveloped civil society. Access to financial most number of acts of terrorism in month of May as resources could backfire and can provoke them to well, there is no definite pattern observed. According fight for their “fair share”. Scholars have contrasting to Special Inspector General for Afghanistan

38 World Focus November 2017 Reconstruction (SIGAR) report of February2017, path for movement between two locations using nearly 11% of the territory of Afghanistan was under friction cost as input. Friction cost here refers to the complete Taliban control while 29% remained heavily range of barriers which are relevant for the project contested. Taliban controlled districts were mainly feasibility and sustainability [24]. This study is located in north-eastern Helmand, north-western conducted in order to identify the zones of violence Kandahar, Uruzgan and north-western Zabul in Afghanistan and Pakistan and then draw the least Provinces of Afghanistan. Afghanistan government cost route for TAPI pipeline through the most secure lost 11% of the territory within a year. Both GTD areas. The Digital Elevation Map (DEM) and and CIGAR data confirmed the increasing influence Terrorism incidents (2001-2016) of Afghanistan and of Taliban in the region and these figures raised Pakistan are used as primary input in this study. serious concerns about the viability of the TAPI Accumulated cost surface is obtained from these pipeline in the region. The figure 1 shows a gradual variables and least cost route is determined between increase of violence in Afghanistan despite the fact origin and destination points. There are four alternate that the US forces have remained on ground for more temporal data for terror incidents, which have been than a decade. It shows no respite in the Taliban threat used to analyse and compare the efficiency of this to the Afghan state. Any effort to build TAPI pipeline exercise. shall have to figure out the routes that could avoid the zones of high danger so as to realise the economic Most important challenges in laying the TAPI goals with manageable security challenges. pipeline are related to harsh topography and terror incidents. Terrorism has been a major reason behind lack of interest from funding agencies and private players for the project as they are uncertain regarding success of the project. Since both topography and terror incidents are equally important in order to calculate the frictional costs (the terrain and terror), and future viability; a composite map for both the variables was prepared by multiplying them using GIS tools. The basic idea behind this was to offer a multiplying effect to elevations and terror incidents so that the GIS tools can identify the routes through least affected low lying areas.

The four alternate routes were constructed Fig: 1. Terror Events in Afghanistan and Pakistan by employing the least cost path analysis tool to (2001-2016), Global Terrorism Database. analyse the pattern and effect of terrorism on route identification. Since US invasion of Afghanistan after 4.The LCA for best TAPI Route 9/11, the geopolitical dynamics of Afghanistan was Least Cost-path Analysis (LCA) simply refers to under constant modification. There was a constant identification of a route for linear infrastructures rise in the insurgency since then which raised avoiding the potential barriers while minimising the concerns about viability of the TAPI pipeline. Four friction costs. Traditionally, topographic maps and different temporal data i.e., 2001, 2009, 2014 and total black and white aerial imageries were used to events of 2001 to 2016 are taken to observe the compute the least cost path routes for various projects pattern of violence and how it altered the project route and fieldworks were hardly commenced. The GIS identification. The year 2001 witnessed very few and LCA techniques provide for ability of more terror incidents reported in Afghanistan, which can efficient, quantitative and convenient analysis of huge be partly related to initial impact of the US invasion spatial data and facilitate quick identification of of Afghanistan. Most of the events were recorded in alternate routes. The LCA model is a distance analysis Herat, Bamiyan, Kabul and Takhar Province of tool which helps researchers to determine the optimal Afghanistan and in Quetta, Bolan, Sibi, Karachi,

The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia 39 Islamabad, Swat and Indo-Pak border districts of surrounding regions and for the same region it is called Pakistan. So the least cost path in this case mostly regional hub of northern Afghanistan. Mazar-i-Sharif follows the terrain guided route in Afghanistan and too provides suitable location for pipeline projects as Pakistan. per its infrastructure perspectives; it was under Taliban attack several times recently which have The total length of Route 1 (2001) identified made it sensitive location for such projects. The comes out to be1998.78 kilometres, which is a little Taliban attacked German and Indian Consulate in longer than the proposed route by ADB. In 2009, the 2016 and in 2017 respectively; they attacked Afghan epicentres of violence increased and scattered Army Corps Headquarter near Mazar-i-Sharif where throughout the most of Afghanistan and Pakistan more than 100 Afghan Army personnel were killed. territory. Route 2 (2009) identified in this case changed The route follows the terrain in the region as the region its course and entered Afghanistan from Badghis is low laying area to the north of Hindu Kush Province. From Badghis, the route navigates through extensions. As soon as Hindu Kush appears in central highlands of Afghanistan through Ghor, crossway to the route, it finds the way ahead through Daykundi, Ghazni, Paktika, Zhob (Balochistan), Dera valleys of the mountain. The LCA model identified Ismail Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Faislabad and Multan passes along many important urban areas which can to finally terminate at Fazilka. Total length of Route 2 provide infrastructure support and accessibility to the identified is 1565.16 kilometres in this case. It is pipeline construction, operation and maintenance. noticeable that this route doesn‘t have any prominent Total engineering cost will be higher according city in its proximity in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. to this route as it follows most of its journey This is due to the reason that most of the prominent through hilly areas of Afghanistan but if security areas were urban centres under attack in 2009 and and facilities offered by the urban areas are to be were scattered as well. The year 2014 witnessed taken into consideration, this is by far the best sudden spike in number of terror incidents in the option for route selection. Additionally, this route is region as most of the US and NATO troops had in confluence with the One Belt One Road initiative withdrawn from Afghanistan. and CPEC, the branch of OBOR. If these initiatives bear fruit, they can be beneficial for pipeline transport The total length of Route 3 (2014) identified through this route as well. There are already many is 1565.68 kilometres. It follows the route through projects present either operational or in construction Jawzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Panjshir, phase in the north-eastern Afghanistan. The CNPC Nuristan, Laghman, Nangarhar in Afghanistan and and Afghanistan signed contract for extraction of oil enters into Pakistan through Khyber Agency to finally and setting up a refinery in Faryab and Sar-i-Pul reach Fazilka via Peshawar, Nowshera, Attock, provinces, drilling started soon after the contract Chakwal, Jhelum, Sargodha Hafizabad, Narkana signed but setting up refinery needed time. The project Sahib, Faisalabad, Kasur and Okara. This route passes came to halt after few months as negotiations on along the Afghan Highway-76 upto Pul-i-Khumri in transit agreement with Uzbek government couldn‘t Baghlan province. The AH-76 is the only major road be realised and there was no refinery yet at the site which connects the North and South Afghanistan [25]. A gas to power plant project is proposed to be across Hindu Kush. It passes along the important constructed and operated by Ghazanfar group in cities of Sheberghan and Mazar-i-Sharif. Sheberghan Mazar-e-Sharif which will provide electricity to is a trade and transit hub in Northern Afghanistan commercial as well as residential sector. The and Mazar-i-Sharif is one of the five largest cities in Ghazanfar group already owns an oil processing plant Afghanistan and has the highest percentage of built in Balkh Province[26]. Ministry of Mines and up land across all provincial capitals. Agriculture is Petroleum signed agreements with US government prominent here too which is close to 95% of non- to rehabilitate the existing Sheberhan-Mazar-e-Sharif built up land. gas pipeline and to build a new gas pipeline and refinery plant between these cities. Also most of The 17 percent of built up area is covered by Natural Gas produced by Afghan Gas Enterprise is Roads which provides good connectivity to the sent to Northern Fertiliser and Power Plant (NFPP)

40 World Focus November 2017 in Mazar-e-Sharif. The already installed huge energy questions of viability of the pipeline as the incidents infrastructure can support construction, operation and recorded during 2001-2016 followed different patterns maintenance of TAPI pipeline. and intensity. By far the route identified through Route 3 and Route 4 provides best option for pipeline route. In case study 4, the total terror incidents in Route 3 route provides accessibility to many urban the period 2001-2016 were added for both Afghanistan areas of utmost importance. These regions are and Pakistan to identify the optimal route. These capable of providing support and services for the figures provided for a completely different and longer construction, operation and maintenance of pipelines. route than the previous ones. Total length of Route 4 This route is in congruence with the One Belt One (Total) identified is 2505.97 kilometres in this case. Road initiative and CPEC, branch of OBOR. Several Route follows Kushk, Zinda Jan, Adraskan, Anar oil and gas extraction sites and refineries are present Dara, Qala-i-Koh, Shib Koh, Lash Wa Juwayn, Kang, along this route in Mazar-iSharif, Shebergan, Pol-i- Zaranj Char Burjak districts in Afghanistan and Khumri. Route 4 (Total) follows the lowland of Chagai, Washuk, Kharan, Kalat, Khuzdar, Jhal Magsi, Western Afghanistan and Balochistan to avoid Jafrabad, Jakokabad, Shikarpur, Ghotki, Rahimyar topographical barriers and militant attacks which were Khan, Bahawalpur, Lodhran, Vehari and clustered along Durand Line North of Balochistan. Bahawalnagar-Pakpattan border to finally arrive at Carving out route through the troubled land of Fazilka. Unlike Route 3, terror events were scattered Afghanistan and Pakistan though provide us with all along the Durand line except Chagai-Char Burjak alternatives, they are always susceptible to third party border where influence was minimum. Zaranj is the interferences. In the end, decision making remains in only prominent town which comes along the route in the hands of stakeholders. Afghanistan and serves domestic airport as well. Zaranj provide a vital trade route between Afghanistan and Iran. It connects Chahbahar port with Delaram through Zaranj-Delaram Highway or Route 606 which was constructed by Border Road Organisation of India. Most of the commercial activities of the region are clustered along this highway. In all four case studies, route identified followed different corridors and it seems that Taliban, Al-Qayeda etc jihadist militant groups are becoming stronger day by day. The decision making for installation of gas and oil pipeline projects has become Fig: 2. Physical Terrain of Afghanistan, USGS SRTM extremely difficult as several jihadist groups have Data. emerged and government is unable to control such groups and elements. Patterns and intensity of militant assaults varied during 2001-2016. The ADB initially proposed two alternative routes for laying TAPI pipeline across Afghanistan and Pakistan- a) Galkynysh to Herat-Qandahar-Quetta-Multan to finally arrive at Fazilka b) Galkynysh to Shebergan- Mazar-i-Sharif-Pol-i-Khumri-Kabul-Jalalabad- Peshawar-Rawalpindi-Lahore to reach Fazilka [27]. The route identified in all four cases in the study followed different least cost corridors. Route 3 (2014) is in consonance with the alternate route proposed by the ADB. Similarly, route identified in Case 4 (Total) is in congruence with route finalised by ADB Fig: 3. Least Cost-path Analysis of TAPI Pipeline, 4 and concerned participants. These case studies raised Routes.

The GIS Analysis of Afghanistan Conflict on Central Asian Energy Routes for South Asia 41 References A study of India2 s proposed cross border gas 1.Romanowski, Micha³. 2014. Central Asia’s Energy projects. Energy policy 62: 145–156. Rush. The Diplomat, July 3. 17. Rabbani, Attar. 2011. Making Sense of Instability 2. Hart, Michael. 2016. Central Asia’s Oil and Gas in South Asia. Dialogue (Pakistan) 6. Now Flows to the East. The Diplomat, August 18. 18.Naseem, SM, and Zahid Zaheer. 2004. Economic 3. Mitchell, John V. 2002. Renewing energy security. Growth and Development in South Asia, with and London: Royal Institute of International Affairs. without Regional Cooperation [with Comments]. The 4.Victor, David G, and Nadejda M Victor. 2003. Axis Pakistan Development Review 43: 397–422. of Oil? Foreign Affairs: 47–61. 19. Reza, Farazi Rad Abdol, and Heydar Moradi. 5.Haté, Vibhuti. 2007. India’s “Look West” Policy: 2012. Examining the TAPI pipeline and its impact Why Central Asia matters. South Asia Monitor on regional and cross-regional rivalry. Central Asia (Centre for strategic and International Studies, and the Caucasus 13. Washington DC): 2. 20. Abbas, Seher. 2012. IP and TAPI in the New 6. Sharma, Raghav. 2009. India in Central Asia. New Great Game: Can Pakistan keep its hopes high. Delhi: Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). Spotlight on Regional Affairs 31: 1–38. 7. Ashraf, Malik Mohammed. 2017. Casa-1000 21.Sadat, Sayed Masood. 2015. TAPI and CASA- formally inaugurated. Daily Times, May 17. 1000: Win-Win Trade between Central Asia and South 8.Reuters Staff. 2015. Turkmenistan starts work on Asia. 25. Bishkek: OSCE Academy. gas link to Afghanistan, Pakistan, India. Reuters. 22. Leigh, Michael. 2014. Energy–A Geopolitical December 13. Game Changer? The International Spectator 49: 1– 9. Akhlaqi, Sayed Yahya. 2017. Afghanistan: Transit 10. hub for the region. The Economic Times, July 17. 23.Aziz, Omer. 2014. The ISI’s Great Game in 10. TCA. 2014. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan Afghanistan. The Diplomat, June 8. and India establish landmark TAPI pipeline company. 24. Atkinson, David M, Peter Deadman, Douglas Times of Central Asia. Dudycha, and Stephen Traynor. 2005. Multi-criteria 11. Dhaka, Ambrish. 2006. India’s energy security evaluation and least cost path analysis for an arctic and Central Asia’s energy resources. Central Asia all-weather road. Applied Geography 25: 287–307. and the Caucasus: 14–24. 25. Donati, Jessica. 2013. UPDATE 1-Missing 12. Rashid, Ahmed. 2002. Taliban: Islam, oil and the refinery deal halts landmark China-Afghan oil project. new great game in Central Asia. IB Tauris. Reuters, August 18. 13. Afonin, Sergei. 2011. The TAPI gas pipeline: Pro 26. Ehsas, Zabiullah. 2013. Balkh oil refinery resumes et contra. International Affairs. Available at: http:// production. Pajhwok Afghan News, December 23. www. eastviewpress. com/Files/IA_FROM% 27. Dhaka, Ambrish. 2004. Afghanistan: 20THE% 20CURRENT% 20ISSUE_No.% Geoeconomic Watershed of South and Central Asia. 206_2011. pdf (accessed on 18th April, 2013). Economic and Political Weekly: 147–148. 14. ADB. 2012. Turkmenistan–Afghanistan– Pakistan–India Natural Gas Pipeline Project, Phase (Corrigendum: This article is being republished as 3. 44463-013. Asian Development Bank. Sudhir Kumar Garhwal’s name was inadvertently 15. Kandiyoti, Rafael. 2012. Pipelines: flowing oil missing in the original publication in October 2017 (Vol XXXVIII, No. 10). We regret the same. and crude politics. IB Tauris. Managing Editor, World Focus 16. Nathan, Hippu Salk Kristle, Sanket Sudhir Kulkarni, and Dilip R Ahuja. 2013. Pipeline politics— 42 World Focus November 2017 Need For Careful Multilayered Rational Foreign Policy towards Bangladesh Ranjana Mishra

Introduction Need for cordial relationship The first priority for India is to uphold good relations At present India needs a farsighted multifaceted with neighbors to have peace and security and pragmatic policy for strengthening multi-dimensional emerge as a major global player. Among neighbors institutional, economic, educational, cultural and of India, Bangladesh will always remain very special strategic bonds with neighboring countries for holistic because of its geographical proximity and its close development, prosperity, peace and development of historical, religious, economic, ethnic and linguistic people of both sides of borders. In the past the foreign relationship. India’s emergence as a regional power policy was not towards east as compared to other and a key global power depends largely on her image partners in the west. The reasons were firstly, India’s and standing in the South Asia neighborhood. economic condition was insular and protective in those Bangladesh is connected to North East Region of days, secondly India’s elite had colonial mindset and India (NER) which is comprising of Arunachal so had no desire for regional linkages, thirdly India’s Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, overland linkage towards east was blocked by Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim. This region shares Myanmar. 6But in later years it was realized that this almost 98% of its land border with Bangladesh, perception was flawed and warped. Since 1990s there Bhutan, China, Myanmar and Nepal.1 Four states of has been a drastic change in our foreign policy for the NER, namely, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and betterment. After gaining nuclear power India has Mizoram share international borders with carved a niche in South Asia. The countries in nearby Bangladesh. The states like Tripura and Mizoram areas also realized that India has not only economic have the longest land and riverine borders with potential but has strategic importance. Bangladesh. A closer economic integration and physical connectivity with Bangladesh would not only In the sphere of defense, over the last ten to reduce economic isolation of the region but also eleven years India has steadily expanded its defense dissolve the seclusion of the northeast region with ties with the East and Southeast Asian countries. sea trade.2 Ethnically, it covers all countries of Asia- Areas of cooperation among Southeast Asian Pacific region, but in practical terms, it has been countries include joint or coordinated naval patrolling, confined to only South-East Asia or the member fighting against piracy and other maritime security nations of ASEAN.3 threats, and military, air and naval exercises. The Maritime security has become an important priority The area is also a vibrant source of energy for India in the light of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in rich in oil, natural gas, coal, limestone and India’s Mumbai. Recently India has emphasized on “Look largest perennial water system, the river Brahmaputra East Policy” which envisages three-pronged approach and its tributaries, which can be tapped for energy, towards the countries of South-East Asia. irrigation and transportation. Looking east would allow India to join the economic dynamism and relative First, India has renewed political contacts and political stability in the international arena.4 ASEAN understanding with ASEAN member states. Secondly countries have emerged as a major trading partner it has tried to achieve enhanced economic interactions after the EU, USA and China. India’s trade with in the areas of investment, trade, science and ASEAN countries likely to reach $ 100 billion by 2015. technology, tourism, etc. and thirdly India is making 5 The entire belt to India’s west from Pakistan to efforts to strengthen defense and strategic links with Syria is contiguous arc of instability, volatility and these countries to achieve better understanding. The extremism and looking towards east would be more rationale behind the Look East Policy is that India beneficial. has made serious efforts for getting an entry into the Need For Careful Multilayered Rational Foreign Policy towards Bangladesh 43 trading blocs of the region, notably the ASEAN and extreme sense of distrust, insecurity and perceived the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) domination by India has shaped Bangladesh’s foreign forum. Its geographical proximity and its bilateral policy in recent years. There are too many areas of relationship, would give India benefits from low Contention between India and Bangladesh. transport costs and shorter delivery schedules. The most important is water sharing disputes. The first phase of look east from 1992-2002, Both the countries share 54 common rivers. It can resulted in formation of BIMSTEC, the Bay of Bengal be traced back to the Treaty of Friendship, Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation and Peace signed by India and Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is an international Bangladesh on March 19, 1972. According to the organisation involving a group of countries in South provisions of the treaty, the two countries established Asia and South East Asia comprising of Bangladesh, a Joint River Commission (JRC) to work towards India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan and the common interests and sharing of water resources. Nepal in 1996. It is only after 1996 India became a 8India completed construction of the Farakka Barrage sectoral dialogue partner at par with China, Japan on the river Ganges in 1975.The aim of this project and Korea in 2002. was to flush out the Hoogly river near Kolkata and keep our port operational. In later years Bangladesh In the second phase the geographical scope insisted that it did not obtain a fair share of the Ganges of co-operation with the South East Asian Countries waters during lean seasons, and got flooded during accelerated. The Memorandum of Understanding the monsoons when India released excess water. related to economic activities and cultural exchanges among these countries have been signed.7 The various treaties on water sharing during lean seasons like Ganga Waters Treaty (signed on Reasons for contention December 12, 1996), 37th Joint Rivers Commission These two countries in South Asia are historically, (JRC) meeting (March 17-20, 2010), Water geographically and culturally so close to each other Resources Secretary-level meeting in Dhaka (January that they cannot escape having noteworthy mutual 10, 2011 on sharing water of Teesta and Feni rivers), interaction. Before achieving independence in 1971, a three-member delegation led by Bangladesh Water Bangladesh, was known as East Pakistan and had Resources Secretary (June 5-6, 2011) have not solved played a major part in establishing the independent the issues.9 state of Pakistan. The Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was a military confrontation between India and Illegal migration is another area of contention. Pakistan that occurred during the liberation war in The flow of migrants across Bangladesh boundary East Pakistan, from 3 December 1971 led to the fall due to unstable condition in Bangladesh has also of Dacca on 16 December 1971. India became the caused tension between the two countries. A large first country to accept its sovereignty, assisted the incursion of migrants across the boundary has posed refugees, provided relief and reconstruction aid. socio-economic political problems for the people of Indian states bordering Bangladesh Viz, Tripura, The relations in the initial phase were excellent Mizoram, Assam, Meghalaya and West Bengal. The as it emanated from cultural, emotional and historical erection of barbed wire fence along the border was heritage. However, events that followed the liberation greatly resented by Bangladesh. Therefore, India of Bangladesh did not result in the maintenance of decided to construct a road along the 2,200 Km Indo- cordial relations between these two countries as Bangladesh Border, 150 yards from the demarcation expected. There are a few fundamental issues line to check infiltration of unauthorized persons into between India and Bangladesh, such as land and India. India facilitated the repatriation of Bangladesh maritime boundary demarcations, the sharing of Chakma refugees from camps in Tripura. waters from 54 common rivers, informal trade, transnational crime, and interference in internal affairs Another contentious issue between India and that have harmfully affected their relationship. An Bangladesh that has recently come under the limelight

44 World Focus November 2017 is the border demarcation issue. Bangladesh shares introduced. India also dismantled some non-tariff a 4,096-kilometre border with India, of which 6.5 barriers which blocked the imports of Jamdani Saris kilometers along the Comilla- Tripura border remains and Hilsa Fish from Bangladesh to India. Trade un-demarcated. This border is marked by a large relations have been gathering strength and has gone number of exclaves and enclaves. Three major up from $1 billion in 2002 to over $ 6 billion now.10 quarrels that arose between two countries were the Off late, the present PM of Bangladesh and PM of Tin Bagha Corridor, Muhuvir Char Dispute and the New Delhi approved for the usage of their New Moore Island disputes. waterways, roadways and railways for transportation of goods between two places in one country through Insurgency off late is one of the bones of the territory of other. In January 2010 two countries contention between two countries. The question of concluded agreements on mutual legal assistance in ISI operating from Bangladesh and supporting the unlawful matters, transfer of penalized persons and insurgents in the North-East is one of the major issues contesting international radicalism and terrorism was because of the porous border. In 2001, media reports a step of Bangladesh’s cooperation to India’s fight highlighted the presence of a number of camps in against terrorism. A cordial relationship can benefit Bangladesh operated by National Liberation Front of nearly 400 million of the region’s people who lack Tripura (NLFT), United Liberation Front of Assam reliable access to electricity, and give a boost to (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland businesses that cite energy shortages as their biggest (NDFM) and facilitating, encouraging and supporting drag on growth.The Energy co-operation has resulted these organizations for insurgencies. There are also positive. reports that ULFA has several lucrative income generating projects in Bangladesh to sustain its India has already exported 600 MW of insurrection activities in India and the indigenous Power(including 100 MW from Tripura)to militant organizations have link with Pakistan based Bangladesh. In the future it would link up with terror groups. potential hydro power exports from Bhutan and Nepal to form a BBIN (Bengal,Bhutan,India and Nepal).11 Necessary policy initiatives for improvement Bangladesh is providing Broadband connectivity of The geographical proximity makes both India and 10gbps for Tripura and beyond territories which has Bangladesh natural trading partners. The lack of trust improved the speed and reliability of internet access has dampened the spirit of exploring new areas of in Northeast India.12 This could lower the cost of trade and that has increased trade costs for both living for many; think of cheaper consumer goods countries. The trade deficit of Bangladesh has flowing to poor families, reducing their monthly decreased in 2005-06 when its exports rose to $242 expenditures. In fact, a recent study shows intra- million while India’s export fell to $1.8 billion from $2 regional tariff reduction would lead to an approximate billion. Bilateral trade between two countries has had gain of $2 billion a year for South Asian consumers, an upward swing following New Delhi communiqué including in the smaller countries.13 The World Bank of 2010. The two-way trade in Financial Year 2010- Group is supporting efforts to improve the base of 2011 was US$5.099 billion with India’s export to knowledge and institutional capacity for better Bangladesh accounting for US $ 4.586 billion and management of shared rivers, including for wildlife imports $ 0.512 million. To address the Bangladesh protection. trade deficit, India agreed to remove tariff and non- tariff barriers. Challenges Economists are of the opinion that India has entered In January 2008, under the SAFTA into a number of pacts and agreements but her provisions the government of India had permitted duty implications of such accords has been poor. 14 Limited free entry of Bangladeshi products into India and transport connectivity, onerous logistics and frequent negative list fell down drastically from 700 products impediments have made it more expensive. The to 400 products. In those areas where duty free was infrastructure and ensuring security is a great not feasible the tariff free quota system was challenge.

Need For Careful Multilayered Rational Foreign Policy towards Bangladesh 45 Conclusion Beyond Borders”, 22-24 May, 2015at Manipur The consequences of strained bilateral relations have University, Imphal, p.xii. adverse effect on the development of both the 5 In Inaugural address by Mr. OKam Ibodi Singh, Chief countries. India is witnessing mounting disorder all Minister, Manipur on India’s look East Policy-Act East round its boundaries and therefore, a firm and strong and South-East Asia: Beyond Borders, 22nd May, 2015, Bangladesh as a partner is required for India’s published in Look and Act East Policy, Potential and development. Constraints, Edited by Rashpal Malhotra and Sucha For this both corrective and ingenious measures have Singh Gill, CRRID, 2015, p.iii. 6 to be taken by both the countries for their respective India’s Look East Policy: A Critical Assessment,An prosperity. A change of mindset is a dire necessity interview with Ambassador Rajiv Sikri, former Special for the South Asians. The center has to be the Secretary (ER) and Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs with responsibility for India’s Look vanguard of a strong foreign policy which is East Policy between 2002 and 2006, Institute of Peace collaborative and non-conflict ridden with states and Conflict Studies, B-7/3, Safdarjung Enclave, New should be there. 15The benefits of such a Delhi,2007. pp.1-10. transformation would be multifaceted, impacting not 7 As quoted in Introduction Chapter of India’s North only India but the entire sub region, and would pave –East and Asiatic South –East: Beyond Borders, edited the way for the integration of India’s north east with by Rashpal Malhotra and Sucha Singh Gill, CRRID, the world economy. The cordial relationship will have 2015, pp.vii-viii. the potentials of cohesive South Asia. While the 8 S.D.Chandran and Jabin T.Jacob,2011,India’s Foreign challenges seem to be mammoth but the rewards of policy:Old Problems and New Challenges,New a united and friendly Delhi,Sage Publication,2011,pp,23-56. 9 Santosh Singh, India-Bangladesh Relations, World Endnotes Focus, Vol. XXXII, No.11-12, Nov. Dec. 2011, p-817. 1 www.indian chamber.org/states/ north-east/ 10 Op.Cit. an article on Bangladesh corridor by Sanjay 2 In an article on Bangladesh corridor vital to Inda’s Kathuria.p.14. Act East Policy, in News Paper, Hindustan 11 Ibid.P.14. TimesMumbai,Tuesday,September,26,2017,p.14. by 12 Ibid.p.14 Sanjay Kathuria ,economist and Co-ordinator South 13 Ibid.p.15 East Asia Regional Integration ,in the World Bank’s 14 Bateman, ‘Naval Balance in Southeast Asia’, n. p. trade and competitiveness global practice. Hasjim Djalal,‘Combating Piracy: Co-operation Needs, 3 Rob Taylor, ‘Asia: Aust Reacts Coolly to US Plan for Efforts, and Challenges’, in Derek Johnson and Mark Malacca Strait’, Australian Associated Press General J. Valencia (eds.), Piracy in Southeast Asia. Status, News, 11 June 2004, n. p. Issues, and Responses, Singapore: Institute of 4 In a Keynote Address by Brahma Chellery on CRIID Southeast Asian Studies, 2005, pp. 145-8. organized a three-day International Conference on 15 T.Maini,The Politics of Center -state Relations and “India’s Look East Policy-Act East and South-East Asia: formulation of India’s Foreign Policy,,2011,Delhi,2011.

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46 World Focus November 2017 India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? Dr. Deepak Yadav

The emerging triangle between Russia-India- Concepts used by Soviets for the third world like non- China is being closely watched in the strategic and aca- capitalist path of development and policy of support to demic quarters of the West and the three countries the ‘national bourgeois’ were similarly opposed. The involved. This idea was mooted by the then Russian real issue behind the ideological discord was however, Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov at a time when In- leadership and hegemony over the international com- dia has been internationally isolated after its May 1998, munist movement and relations with the newly emerg- nuclear tests. This was also the time when Russia was ing countries of Asia and Africa. (Chenoy, April 2005: facing intense pressure from the West on the issue of 11).1 human rights violation in Chechnya and on the estab- lishment of true democratic system in Russia. The third The Chinese and Russians had disagreements component of the triangle China, was already on the on internal matters as well. Chinese wanted assistance hit list of the US led West due to its ideological com- from the Soviets on their nuclear Programme which mitment to Marxism. The Thiamin massacre incident was denied by the Soviets. The Chinese and Soviet had made China almost untouchable internationally. became competitors in the space technology; Chinese China has also been facing constant pressure from the needed more economic assistance for their modern- West on the issues of Taiwan and Tibet. Aware of the ization programmes that the overstretched Soviet Union circumstances in which all three countries found them- failed to provide. Soviets were critical of several Chi- selves and the power aspirations which all these shared; nese policies including the Cultural Revolution; Chi- Primakov gave a call to unite in the face of unneces- nese called the Soviets revisionists’, an insult to those sary intervention of the West in their internal matters. who believed themselves to be Marxists. (Gorbachev, However, no triangular relation can take off and be 1987: 10-12). 2 sustained if each had problem with the other. In the words of Gorbachev, ‘New Thinking’ The Russia-China Relations stood for “We need normal international conditions for Soviet Union and China were bound to each other as our internal progress. But we want a world free of comrades resolutely devoted to working class and peas- war, without arms races, nuclear weapons and vio- ant revolutions. Soviet Union’s assistance under the lence, not only because this is an optimal condition for Stalin regime to Mao’s revolution endeared the two, our internal development.” (Gorbachev, 1987: 10-12).3 who after the success of the 1949 Chinese revolution, While relations were improving between the presented themselves as the impenetrable and expand- two countries, the Soviet Union itself collapsed in De- ing socialist world of the early 1950s. The comrade- cember 1991. It was a historical event of global sig- ship however began to drift apart on several counts nificance. Relations between the two neighbours, Russia and there were many reasons that soured Soviet-China and China could not therefore, escape the global ef- relations. Both wanted to establish their credentials as fects of this historical event. (Imam, 2001:97-100).4 true Marxists. Gradually the two drifted away from each other though, these two countries belonged to The bubble of “Common European Home” and the same idea bloc but there were strong difference “One World from Vancouver to Vladivostok” busted between them. Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization cam- very soon. Disillusioned Russia turned her face towards paigns were amongst the first signs of discord. Chair- the Third World, and Asia which had been a natural man Mao opposed CPSU’s new ideological formula- ally of the erstwhile Soviet Union again got prominence tions like peaceful co-existence and non-antagonistic among the policy makers. So in the changed circum- contradictions between imperialism and socialism. stances and policies countries like China, India, Iran India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? 47 got the top priority in Russian foreign policy list. Soon, Delhi that Russia was not cold-shouldering India. Indian Andrei Kozyrev (pro-West Foreign Minister) was re- Prime Minister P. V. Narsimha Rao visited Moscow in placed by an academician Yevgeny Primakov (pro- 1994; during high visit President Yeltsin remarked that Third World) as Russia’s new foreign minister who “there was no difference at all between the two tried to balance between the East and the West. In countries on international and bilateral issues”. The December 1998, he made an official visit to India. document signed during his visit promised for joint Primakov visited India at the time when India was in- action by both countries against terrorism. The ternationally isolated after conducting five nuclear tests document supported all forms of cooperation, a few months back. He proposed to formulate a tri- investment, joint enterprise, creation of conditions for angle between three major Eurasian countries Russia- economic initiative development of scientific technical China-India to counter US hegemony and unilateralism cooperation, peaceful atom, cosmos, and laser in the world politics. According to him ‘Russia favours technology. (Chenoy, 2005: 11-26). 8 the creation of a Moscow-Beijing-Delhi triangle and also it would be a good idea.’ (SWB/SU/3416 B/5, Between 1992- 96, India imported defense December 22, 1998).5 equipments worth $3.5 billion from Russia. Indian military and defence orders now sustain many defence While in 1998 US loomed over the world as industries in Russia, especially in St. Petersburg and the sole super power ready to take unilateral action Irkutsk which would otherwise have faced closure at anywhere, there were some developments taking place the time of transition in the Russian economy. India is to fill the geopolitical vacuum left behind by the collapse the only country with which Russia has a long term of USSR. Primakov visited India at a time when the programme of military-technical cooperation, which later was internationally isolated for conducting nuclear was signed in 1994. The Soviet era Treaty of Friendship, tests few months back. This visit by one of the world’s Peace and Cooperation was renewed for another 10 major powers did not just create a diplomatic opening years, during the then defence Minister Mulayam Singh for India. By talking of a “strategic triangle”, Primakov Yadav’s visit to Moscow in December 2000. (Chenoy, underlined the importance of India in the global affairs. 2001: 183-184).9 Russian spokesmen stated that Russian (Patnaik, April 2005:3-10) 6 Indian military cooperation would touch $4.5 billion in 2000 and $6.5 billion in the end of 2005. In February Russia-India Relations 2006, India and Russia also set up a Joint Study Group The legacy of strong mutually beneficial relations to examine ways to increase trade to US$10 billion by between Soviet Union and India weighed heavily on 2010 and to study feasibility of a Comprehensive Indian expectations in developing relations with new Economic Co-operation Agreement (CECA). The group Russia. Global events brought India and Soviet Union finalized its report after its fourth meeting in Moscow together in the fifties when the Cold War dominated in July 2007. It has been agreed that a Joint Task Force international relations. India had identified itself with would monitor the implementation of the the Soviet Union World view just as Pakistan had with recommendation made in the Joint Study Group Report, that of the USA. The general understanding was Indo- including considering CECA. The second BRIC summit Soviet friendship being time tested; Indo-Russian was held in Brasília in April 2010. India and Russia equation would not dramatically alter in times to come. agreed to jointly study a Comprehensive Economic Co- End of Soviet Union, however, altered the international operation Agreement with Belarus-Kazakhstan with the scenario completely. It heralded the end of the aim of boosting trade ties and achieving the ambitious confrontational bloc politics and end of the Cold War trade target of $20 billion by 2015. Prime Minister era and the weakening of ideologies. Free from Manmohan Singh stated in speech given during ideological compulsion new Russia had new options. President Putin’s 2012 visit to India, “Our bilateral trade (Shams-ud-din, 2001: 1). 7 has grown by over 30 per cent this year. There is still untapped potential in areas such as pharmaceuticals, After prolonged dilly dallying and rescheduling fertilisers, mining, steel, information technology, civil his visit since 1992, Yeltsin finally arrived in New Delhi aviation, telecommunications, infrastructure, food only in January 1993. President Yeltsin’s belated visit to India in January 1993 was aimed to reassure New 48 World Focus November 2017 processing, innovation and services, which we will On March 22, 1999 India and Russia signed work to exploit”. an agreement to train Indian defence personnel in key Russian defence establishments for maintaining The crucial and the most time testing moment advanced defence equipments. The 44,500 tones Kiev in Indo-Russian relations came in May 1998, when class Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier has been India conducted five nuclear tests in Pokhran, Rajasthan purchased by India from Russia. The Mig-29K Fulcrum and most of the influential countries imposed economic aircrafts stand a better chance to be operated from this and many other kinds of sanctions on India. Although aircraft carrier. Up gradation of MiG-29 Fighters, Russia agreed with the West and USA that India should construction of 3 Kirvak class frigates for the Indian sign on CTBT and NPT and ratify as soon as possible, Navy, modernization for T -72 MBT, procurement of but Russia opposed any kind of economic sanction T -90s MBTs, for the Indian army and antiballistic against India. Tremendous pressure was exerted by missiles systems were discussed. (Wishnik, 2001)13. the USA led West on Russia to scrap all its agreements in nuclear cooperation with India and also stop India and Russia have several major joint military technical support to India’s two nuclear reactors under programmes including: construction with Russian assistance at Kudnakulam,  BrahMos cruise missile programme Tamilnadu. But Russia stood up to the Indian  5th generation fighter jet programme expectations and refused to comply with US dictates.  Sukhoi Su-30MKI programme (230+ to be built (Boquerat and Frederic, 2004:132-140).10 by Hindustan Aeronautics)  Ilyushin/HAL Tactical Transport Aircraft Additionally, India and Russia set up a joint working group India has purchased/leased various military hardware on Afghanistan. As on many other issues their stance from Russia: on this issue was similar. Together they made it possible  S-400 Triumf 12. for the Northern Alliance to keep afloat, and thereby a  Kamov Ka-226 200 to be made in India under the counterforce against the Taliban was available when Make in India initiative. the American attack on Afghanistan took place. Their  T-90S Bhishma with over 1000 to be built in India joint proposal of resistance also mooted by General  Akula-II nuclear submarine (2 to be leased with an Musharraf and virtually endorsed by the USA prevented option to buy when the lease expires) the sneaking in of Taliban elements in the interim  INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier programme government formed subsequently in Afghanistan under  Tu-22M3 bombers (4 ordered) the leadership of Hamid Karzai. (Dutt, 2003: 18-19).11  US$900 million upgrade of MiG-29  Mil Mi-17 (80 ordered) more in Service. Another important land mark in the  Ilyushin Il-76 Candid (6 ordered to fit Israeli Phalcon development of Indo-Russian ties was Prime Minister radar) Primakov’s visit at the end of 1998. The visit sparked  The Farkhor Air Base in Tajikistan is currently jointly off a debate following his references to an Indo-China- operated by Indian Air Force and Tajikistan Air Force. Russia strategic triangle. He remarked that “Russo- Indian relations are perhaps unique in diplomatic history Both countries signed a defence deal worth of the past fifty years. Their strength has been tested $2.9 billion during President Putin’s visit to India in by many turns and twists in the two countries political December 2012. The 42 new Sukhois, to be produced life and during the profound transformation of under licence by defence PSU Hindustan Aeronautics, international system”. He also rightly noted that will add to the 230 Sukhois earlier contracted from cooperation between the two countries rests on a long Russia. Overall, the price tag for the 272 Sukhois - established bread public consensus in both countries three of the over 170 inducted till now have crashed - regarding the priority of Russian-Indian cooperation stands at over $12 billion. The medium-lift Mi-17 V5 as a factor promoting national interests (Wishnik, helicopters (59 for IAF and 12 for home ministry/BSF) 2001.)12 will add to the 80 such choppers already being inducted under a $1.34 billion deal inked in 2008. The value of India’s defence projects with Russia will further zoom

India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? 49 north after the imminent inking of the final design displayed excessive zeal in promoting its membership contract for the joint development of a futuristic stealth in the UN”. (Shambaugh, 1927: p. 361).16 fifth-generation fighter. This R&D contract is itself pegged at US$11 billion, to be shared equally by the The historic agreement between Prime two countries. So if India inducts over 200 of these Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his Chinese counterpart 5th Gen fighters, as it hopes to do from 2022 onwards, Zhou Enlai in April 1954 was named as Panchsheel the overall cost of this gigantic project for India will (five principles of peaceful co-existence). This formed come to around US$35 billion since each of the jets bedrock for India and China to conduct bilateral will come for upwards of US$100 million at least. relations with each-other. Panchsheel contained following five principles: India-China Relations 1.Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity The history of India-China, interaction is almost as old and sovereignty; as the two civilizations themselves. This centuries old 2.Mutual non-aggression; relationship has been peaceful, mutually enriching, both 3.Mutual non-interference in each other’s affairs; materially and spiritually and is possibly unparallel in 4.Equality and mutual benefit; and human history. It is generally believed that the contacts 5.Peaceful co-existence. between India and China began as early as the time of Christ although there is as yet no definite record to The sunshine period in Indo-China relations establish. Trade and commerce flourished between them disappeared behind the dark cloud with the border via the Silk Road, as also cultural contacts. One of the clashes in October 1962, which ultimately spread in to most significant aspects of the ancient contacts was a full-fledged war in which India suffered a crushing the establishment of Buddhism in China. The Chinese defeat. The opposition parties dubbed him a ‘soaring responded with great enthusiasm to the arrival of idealist’ incapable of defending the country’s honour. Buddhist missionaries and thereafter initiated a number Nehru’s faith that a socialist China will never attack a of moves to bring Indian Buddhist monks and scholars ‘non-aligned’ India and his faith in non-aligned policy to help teach, explain and establish Buddhism firmly in as a pathway to national security proved illusory.17 Post- China. . This turnaround in their political loyalties and Nehru era has been relatively smooth and peaceful for their radicalization came about with the work of Gadar China and India relations. Without being guided by Party in China and indeed, in retrospect, the Gadar passion and idealism Mrs. Indira Gandhi, unlike her movement figures in the history of Indo-China relations father endeavored to lend a component of ‘hard realism’ as a notable chapter of revolutionary comradeship. to Indian foreign policy. For instance, India’s role in (Bakshi, 2000: 168-170).14 Relation with China was to dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971, its first ever nuclear figure prominently in independent India. In a notable blast in May 1974, and later merging of Sikkim essay “A Foreign Policy for India” in September 1927, reinforced the premise that she was a practitioner of Nehru wrote: power politics. After 14 years of gap in 1976, K.R. Narayanan was accredited India’s ambassador to In developing our foreign policy we shall Beijing, a pragmatic step towards normalizing Indo- naturally first cultivate friendly relations with the China relations. (Li, 2000: 253-269).18 countries of East which have so much in common Sino-India relations entered a new’ phase with with us. Nepal will be our neighbour and friend, with the Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s path breaking visit China and Japan, Indonesia, Afghanistan and Central to Beijing in December 1988. Also both countries agreed Asia we shall have the closest contact. (Nehru, 1927: to concentrate on expanding bilateral cooperation in p. 361). 15 non-conventional field, as was evident from the signing of several agreements on scientific and technical Nehru greeted the birth of communist China cooperation, and on educational and cultural exchange in October 1949 with great pomp. India was the first programmes. (Jiali, 2003:214-257).19 among non-communist countries to recognize the The year 1998 came as the turnings point when People’s Republic of China. In a rare gesture, India India conducted five nuclear tests on May 15th and 17th at Pokhran, Rajasthan. China’s initial reaction was

50 World Focus November 2017 mild. Its acerbic rebuff resulted from the fact that the Beijing when Karmapa Lama, a Buddhist monk, fled to Indian government justified these tests by pinpointing India in early 2000 and was given a status of a Tibetan China as a ‘potential threat’ to Indian security. China’s refugee by the Indian government. The Indian response shifted radically after the publication by The government ignored Chinese sensitivity over the New York Times on May, 13, of a letter from PM Karmapa episode. The real problem with China is that Vajpayee to US President Bill Clinton and other world it regards Tibet as are edifice of unity. (Boqerat and leaders. The Chinese government brushed aside the Grare, 2004: 29-41).21 Indian accusation saying that it was “utterly groundless” if analyzed in pragmatic terms, this was iv) Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim issue an unwarranted and provocative act on India’s part Although China has formally recognized recently Sikkim resulting in unnecessary tensions with China. as the part of India, but on Arunachal Pradesh its stand is ambiguous. During Vajpayee visit to China in June i) Pakistan Factor 2003, India termed Tibet an autonomous region of PRC. The Sino-Pakistan security and strategic nexus has India has also gained in return, by signing the accord remained a central issue in India-China relations ever on opening trade through Sikkim (Nathula pass). The since Beijing and Islamabad signed a historic border Nathula Pass was officially closed in 1975, after Sikkim agreement in March 1963, ceding a chunk of Pakistan became the part of India. occupied Kashmir to China. China also assisted Pakistan, in its nuclear and missile building programmes, v) Economic Apprehensions which were designed to help Pakistan to keep its option, In the early 1990s with a positive mood and thinking in open. Following an agreement signed between the two the leadership of both countries they signed a much countries in September 1986, China also sold two mini awaited trade agreement on avoidance of double taxes nuclear research reactors to Pakistan in 1989 and 1990 in each -other’s country to boost the flow of goods and also promised to assist Pakistan’s nuclear energy and products on the basis of mutual benefit. On the programmes. (Subramanyam, 1989, 23-28).20 trade front there has been a boost from $ 265 million in 1991 to $ 3.6 billion in 2001. According to some policy ii) Close China-Myanmar Relationship analysts, what are worrying Indian business circles is Another area of serious concern is the close China- that the flooding of domestic markets by cheap Chinese Myanmar relations which has far reaching implications. goods. Their fear is rooted in the belief that all varieties Of particular concern for India is the fact that the Coco of Chinese products are at unbeatable price and quality Island base is situated merely 30 nautical from the wise in international markets. That is why large and Andaman Islands giving China a strategic presence in medium size business houses in India are raising a hue the Indian Ocean. The objective behind improving the and cry over the ‘dumping syndrome”. Burma Road would also be security one, aimed at Russia-India-China Emerging Triangle: facilitating quick-movement of men and material During his visit in December 1998, the former Russian between Yunan and the Indian Ocean. The Chinese are Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, proposed a Russia- also believed to have assisted in the construction of a India-China strategic triangle, which envisaged closer 50 meter-radar antenna on the Coco Islands. strategic cooperation. He said that “If we succeed in establishing a strategic triangle, it will be very good ... iii) Tibet Issue a lot depend in the region on the policies perused by The Tibet issue has been one of the major constraints India, China and Russia. Further, this proposal was in Indo-China relations ever since Tibet was forcibly made in the framework of partnership between the three occupied by China in 1950 and declared an integral countries that could bring about greater stability not part of its territory. India argues that she has given just in the region but the world.” refuge to Dalai Lama and thousands of Tibetan refugees The immediate response from Beijing on the proposed on humanitarian ground, but China criticizes India of triangle was positive. The spokesperson of Chinese providing secessionist movement in Tibet and foreign ministry dubbed it as ‘very positive thought’ intervening China’s internal matters. A further and ‘would help in containing growing unilateralism in controversy was sparked off between New Delhi and international politics’. India’s response was cautious

India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? 51 and rather lukewarm because she did not want to send wrong signals to the West by joining in bloc politics. In There are other interested players in the region, his speech then Prime Minister Vajpayee said ‘Russia foremost and most influential being the USA. Due to is a longstanding partner of India with which we have presence of petroleum and hydrocarbons, the ‘great traditionally enjoyed friendly relations. At the same time, game’ in Central Asia has been revived. Russia, China, India is working on normalizing its relations with China’. USA are the major players in this game and competing Due to this cold response from India, speaking to the for lion’s share in the Central Asian natural resources. media Primakov explained that his earlier words on the India, though a marginal player in th0is game is trying possibility of forming a triangle between Russia-China- to reduce her dependence on Gulf oil, and looking India were not official proposal. He said “I wanted to forward for supply of oil from Central Asia. Russia, say that such partnership could reliably stabilize the India and China can also combine to discuss and if situation in the region and in the world”. (SWB/SU/ necessary deal with terrorism. Islamic extremism in 3417 B/4, December 23, 1998.)22 Kashmir, Xinjiang and in Chechnya has grown over the years. Although US war on terrorism will help in The multi-ethnic and multi-cultural societies reducing the problem, Washington clearly cannot do of Russia, India, and China have faced increasing everything. There has been a consensus between the pressure from 1he forces that seek to destroy their three countries on the growing menace of terrorism. pluralistic societies. In India infiltration in Kargil was In April 1996, the ‘Shanghai Five’, a multilateral forum the culmination of years of infiltrations and terrorist composed of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and activities. The terrorists have also attacked the highest Kyrgyzstan, was created with the aim of fighting ethnic symbol of Indian democracy, the parliament. Russia’s separatism as well as Islamic fundamentalism. In March long bleeding problem of Chechnya has been further 2000, a meeting was held in Astana, Kazakhstan, to aggravated with the Western and US media and human determine a common position on these two issues. This right group’s intervention on the name of human rights was later confirmed in a joint declaration in July 2000 violations. China is facing potential threat of secession in Dushanbe followed by a decision to create an anti- in its Xinjiang province by Islamic extremists who are terrorist centre in Bishkek, Kyrgzstan. (Djalili, 2001: engaged with continuous low level warfare with 64-65). Likewise, in October 2000, during President Chinese authorities. There is growing feeling among Putin’s visit to Delhi, India and Russia reaffirmed their the three countries that US alone should not set the convergence of view on fighting terrorism, expressing agenda of global war against terror. The experience of their deep concern over the situation in Central Asia Iraq also shows that the US polices can leave a bigger and Afghanistan for which they agreed to set up a mess in the region, the effect of which has to be borne working group. (Basu, 1998, 1285-1290).25 by neighbouring countries. (Jingji, 2000: 187-188).23 Since the time of proposal of the triangle in At broader level India, Russia and China agree December 1998 to 2001, by and large no concrete steps that the world should be a multipolar one. China felt seem 10 have been taken was by the three concerned the pressures from the West after the Thiamin square steps to realize it. But the more US unilateralism became massacre, the US relentless support to Taiwan and threat blatant the more attractive the option seemed. As a result perception of China despite of years of normalization for the first time the three foreign ministers of Russia, of US- Chinese relations, US sale of F -16s to Taiwan China and India net on the sidelines of UN General and promised Theater Missile Defense (TMD), forced Assembly meet at New York in 2002 to explore the Chinese to reconsider relations with the USA. With the ‘triangle’ possibility. The approach continued to be an development of National Missile Defence (NMD), US extremely cautious one. The three foreign ministers will get cutting edge on strategic position vis-a-vis Russia gave no media briefing for the press except that and China. Russia, with its huge nuclear arsenal, could informally they let the press know that they had me’ live with the US NMD. From Chinese perspective, and that these meetings will continue. By comparison however, the same system could immediately render at the second 2003 New York meeting the difference China’s minimalist nuclear relations form obsolete. (Yi, in both their body language and press briefing could be 2000:121-130).24 clearly noticed. At the conclusion of their second

52 World Focus November 2017 meeting, three foreign ministers were ready to convey round of the Russia-India-China (RIC) Foreign to the press that three states had adopted a common Minister’s meeting was held on April 13, 2012 in approach on Iraq favoring return to political process Moscow. The impetus of the RIC Foreign Ministers’ to ensure quick return of sovereignty to Iraqi people. recent meeting was strengthened as it was held within (Singh, 2005: 14-16). 26 a fortnight after the March 29 BRICS summit in New Delhi. RIC’s main agenda have been to oppose This clearly had strong connotations for the unilateralism and to promote a pluralistic democratic USA, especially as all three of them had also refused to international order. The three countries believes that send troops to Iraq. The 2004 meeting on the eve of the diverse threats and risks cannot be addressed by the UN General Assembly session in New York could military power alone but need to be appraised through not occur due to change of government in New Delhi political, social and economic prisms. India also accused leading to some scheduling problems with the Indian US for pursuing ‘double standard’ on fighting with establishment. Nevertheless, this was soon rectified terrorism. India blames that terrorist outfits functioning and the three foreign ministers had their third ‘dialogue’ in Pakistan with covert support of Pakistani on strategic triangle on the sidelines of the Almaty meet establishment are posting grave threat to India’s security, of the 16 nation Conference on Interaction and but US in eliminating only those terrorists who pose Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in October threat for her own interests and not that of India. 2004. In the press briefing all three countries agreed to Addressing the annual joint session of the Russian strengthen a “collective approach” in world affairs. parliament in December 2016, President Vladimir Putin (Singh, 2005: 14-16).27 described Sino-Russian relations in the following words: “In today’s challenging environment, the On June 2, 2005 the three foreign ministers of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation Russia, China and India namely Sergei Lavrov, Li between Russia and China has become one of the key Zhaoxing and Natwar Singh had their first ever stand factors in ensuring global and regional stability. This alone meeting at the port city of Vladivotosk in Russia’s partnership can be regarded as a model for shaping Far East. The presence of large number of Western a world order free from the domination of a single journalists at this meeting indicated that the meet country, no matter how strong it is, and taking into generated curiosity beyond these states. Most experts account the interests of all countries in harmony.” believe that a meeting solely for this purpose reflects the beginning of the new era in the evolution of the Implications for India Russia-India-China triangle. For various reasons, all India on its side is also willing to engage in great power three countries feel that they are under Western politics and is looking for international recognition it pressure. Russia because of NATO’s eastward has been deprived since independence. Nehru wrote expansion, Chechnya issue, and more generally, because movingly of India’s desire and its destiny to play a of perceived CS design on former Soviet republics, major role in the world politics. He hoped that it would including Central Asia and Caspian Sea region. China is not be military role, but one based on sound moral experiencing Western pressure on human rights issue values. Today although there exists no “white paper” and feels threatened by US arms sales to Taiwan and enunciating the objectives of the country’s foreign more generally, an East Asian security policy which policy, India still strives towards this goal. The most moves towards greater use of Japan in balancing China. spectacular example of this new assertiveness, largely India is experiencing in concealed Western propensity founded on the self-confidence generated by the relative to try to get involved on Kashmir issue and helping success of the nuclear tests, is the claim for a Pakistan to internationalizing Kashmir issue; as well as permanent seat at the UNSC. On the issue of triangle, the Western -mainly US attempt to limit country’s it is only India that seems to be least under pressure to nuclear and missile programme. (Sakwa,2003: 5-19). pursue this triangle. India has to carefully weigh its policy options and maintain a delicate balance between The international balance of power is changing promoting strategic triangle and strengthening its in favour of world peace. Russia, India and China (RIC) engagement with the USA. Individually both Russia have been interacting trilaterally since 1996. The 11th and China have maintained good relationship with the

India-Russia-China Strategic Co-Operation: Myth or Reality? 53 US and their trade volume are increasing rapidly with their border dispute amicably which is the biggest hurdle the US. Fear persists at the bilateral level as well. To in the formation of RIC, the proposed Asian triangle some Chinese analysts Russia still represents a potential will become a force to reckon with in the times to threat and vice-versa is also true. Both Russia and India come. The induction of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral presume that in the short and medium term, China may Gorshkov (renamed as INS Vikramaditya) in November pursue the policy of peace, but in the long term equations 2013, in Indian navy has increased its strike capability may change. China’s overt and covert support to many fold. India has made it categorically clear that Pakistani nuclear and missile development programme induction of state of art weapons like Arihant and pose a great security danger for India. Vikramaditya is not aimed to any other country but for the self defence. In the congratulatory message that India-Russia-China can do some sensible Putin sent to India’s President Ram Nath Kovind and things together in the military and geopolitical realm. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the 70th anniversary There is very little prospect that they are going to be of India’s independence, Putin vowed to strengthen allies or even thoroughgoing strategic performers. privileged strategic partnership and tackle important Moreover there are number of areas where protocol, regional and global issues with India. Other than military discussions and agreements might be reached which cooperation, Russia and India are also planning to boost would enhance their security and contribute to the business in Russia’s Far East.That being said, so far, security of Asia. If the idea of triangle between them both India and China seem to be fine with Russia’s mean anything, it is probably means a relatively modest balancing act, and Russia seems to still be able to handle set of understanding on which their view coverage. the the standoff between China and India quite Russia, China and India have great historical experience well. Zakharova expressed “absolute confidence” that of dealing with such Western influences and preserving “New Delhi and Beijing, as responsible members of their Asian identity despite all challenges. The the international community, will be able to find mutually fundamentals of strategic triangle seem robust and clear acceptable ways to quickly resolve the tensions.” and effort must be made to make it effective As of If these three Eurasian giants, two of them being the today Russia-India-China stand together in their support permanent members of UNSC can amicably resolve for evolving ‘just and rational’ new international order their minor disputes amicably, the dream of 21st century with democratization of international politics and to be an Asian century can be easily realized. multipolarization. Also all three have been suffering from transnational and cross-border terrorism and have not References 1- Chenoy, A.M. (2005), “Russia-India-China: Re-visioning the International Political System”, World Focus (April, been comfortable with uni-polar world led by the US. 2005), pp. 11-16. 2- Gorbachev, Mikhail (1987), “Perestroika: New Thinking for our Country and the World”, London: Collins. The trilateral cooperation among themselves holds the 3-Ibid. 4-Imam, Zafar(2001), “Foreign Policy of Russia, 1991-2000” New Delhi:\New Horizon Publishers. key of ‘triangle’ and how these three Asian giants resolve 5- Summary of World Broadcast (SWB)/SU/3416 B/5, December 22, 1998). 6-Patnaik,Ajay,(2005) “From Primakov to Putin: ‘Strategic Triangle”, World Focus ,pp 3-10. their internal disputes would be the deciding factor in 7- Shams-ud-din,( 2001), India and Russia: Towards strategic Partnership, New Delhi: Lancer’s Book. 8- Chenoy, A.M. (2005), “Russia-India-China: Revisioning the International Political System”, World Focus (April, the emergence of ‘Eurasian triangle’. 2005), p. 11-26. 9- Chenoy, A.M. (2001), “The Phases in Indo-Russian Relations” in Shams-ud-din (eds.), India and Russia: Towards strategic Partnership, New Delhi: Lancer’s Book. 10- Boquerat, G. and Grare, Frederic (2004), “India-China, Russia Intricacies of an Asian Triangle”, New Delhi; India To conclude, Russian and Chinese interests in Research Press. 11- Dutt, V.P. (2003), “Puttin’s Russia and India: Overview” in V.D. Chopra (eds.), New Trends in Indo-Russian Central Asia seem smooth but with growing Chinese Relations, New Delhi: Kalpaz 12- Wishnick, Elisabeth (2001), “Mending Fences, The Evolution of Moscow’s China Policy from Brezhnev to Yeltsin”, Seattle, Wash.: University of Washington Press.pp.121-127. influence in the region is the cause of concern for 13-Ibid. 14- Bakshi, Jyotsna (2002), “Post Cold War Sino-Russian Relations: An Indian Perspective” Strategic Analysis, 26(1): Russia. China has already surpassed Germany to 80-1l7 15- Banerji, A., and Bhattacharya P. (2001), “Peoples Republic of China at Fifty: Politics Economy and Foreign become second largest economy in the world. China’s Relations”, New Delhi: Lancer. 16- Shambaugh, David (2000), “China’s Military Views the World: Ambivalent Security”, International Security, fast growing economy needs continuous energy supply 24(3): 72-89. 17- Keith , Crane, and William Overholt (2005), “Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints”, for which Central Asia is its natural choice. Russia treats Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation. 18- Li, Jingjie (2000), “Pillars of Sino-Russian Partnership”, Orbis, 44(4): 428-439. Central Asia as its backyard and interests of both 19- Jiali , Ma (2003), “Strengthening the Role of UNO Cooperation of India-China and Russia in UN”, China Report, 39(3): 385-92. countries seems to be at odds here. The proposed with 20- Subramanyam,K.”China-Pakistan Nuclear and missile technology nexus” The Hindu, March 20,2000. 21- Boquerat, G. and Grare, Frederic (2004), “India-China, Russia Intricacies of an Asian Triangle”, New Delhi; India drawl of US from Afghanistan in 2014 and resurgence Research Press. Pp.121-124. 22-SWB/SU/3417 B/4, December 23, 1998. of Taliban is another issue of concern for three countries 23- Jingjie, L. (2000), “Pillars of the Sino-Russian Partnership”, Orbis, 44(4): 527-539. 24- Yi, Tung (2000), “Russian Experts said helping PRC make high-tech weaponry” People’s Daily, Sept. 6, 2000. and only through joint collaboration they will be able to 25- Basu, Baidya Bikas (1998), “Russian National Security Thinking”, Strategic Analysis, 24(7): 1285-1305. 26- Singh, Swaran (2003), “India-China-Russia: A Strategic Triangle?”World Focus, 24(1): 9- 17. 27- ibid. secure peace in the region. If India and China settle 28- Sakwa, Richard (2003), “Putin’s Foreign Policy: Transforming the East” in Garbriel Gorodetsky (eds.), Russia between East and West: Russian Foreign Policy on the Threshold of 21st Century, London: Frankcass. 54 World Focus November 2017 The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership Dr. Mohor Chakraborty

The twin doctrines of ‘Act East’ and ‘Made in has been evident from the changed nomenclature India’ have been significant contributions of the itself. Given this backdrop, the present article NDA-II Government’s foreign policy. In order to analyses the dynamics of defence and naval elevate India’s image as an attractive investment cooperation between India and her ‘Act East’ destination and strengthen its economic stature counterparts within the rubric of India’s ‘Act East’ on the world stage, the most noteworthy Policy. endeavour has been the launching of the flagship ‘Make in India’ and the expanded umbrella of ‘Made in India’: Significant Mantle of Defence reforms. In this backdrop, greater emphasis has Coordination been laid on collaboration in defence technology, Premised on the 3C ‘mantra’ of ‘Commerce, Culture co-development and co-production at a time when and Connectivity’, the AEP envisages sincere and the Indian defence sector is at the cusp of an constructive engagement with the countries of inflexion point. In this context, the enhanced level Southeast Asia and the wider Asia-Pacific, following of coordination in the defence and naval spheres the dictum of “Minimum Government, Maximum between India and its ‘Act East’ partners reflects Governance”. In order to elevate India’s image as India’s presence and shared concerns for an attractive investment destination and strengthen sustaining peace and order in the wider Asia its economic stature on the world stage, the most Pacific region, naturally having a bearing on the noteworthy endeavour has been the launching of the country’s overall Southeast Asia and Asia Pacific flagship ‘Make in India’ and the expanded umbrella policy. of reforms. With the introduction of the ‘Make in India’ programme in September 2014, the regulatory The re-christening, re-defining and re- environment in terms of foreign investment has been activating of the Look East Policy by consistently eased in India to make it investor-friendly. transforming it into ‘Act East’ has been a The measures taken by the Government are directed momentous contribution of the National to opening new sectors to Foreign Direct Investment Democratic Alliance (NDA)-II Government under (FDI), increasing the sectoral limit of existing sectors the leadership of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. and simplifying other conditions of the FDI policy, This new coinage (Act East) was referred to in with the objective of providing ease of doing business, course of Narendra Modi’s address at the 9th East reduction of minimum capitalisation, easy exit from Asia Summit meeting held in Naypidaw, Myanmar, projects and accelerating the pace of foreign on 13 November 2014, when he said: “Since investment in the country.2 entering office six months ago, my Government has moved with a great sense of priority and speed The 2016-2017 Union Budget proposed to turn our ‘Look East Policy’ into ‘Act East several reforms and relaxed FDI policy in fifteen Policy’” (AEP).1 This statement evidently sectors, such as raising the foreign investment limit emphasised his administration’s desire to activate for some sectors, easing the conditions for others and and rejuvenate the erstwhile Look East Policy in putting many on the automatic route (not requiring the garb of ‘Act East’. Although the spirit and pre-approval by the Government) for approval. The rationale of this policy initiative has reflected sectors that benefited from the relaxation include continuity with its ‘Look East’ and ‘Move East’ defence, real estate, private banking, insurance, civil predecessors, the Government’s aspiration to aviation, single brand retail, news broadcasting etc. make it more proactive, expeditious and engaging At the ground level, projects are being monitored for The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership 55 timely implementation. The bottom line is overall in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) in improvement of the business climate and March 2016. The most important clauses of the infrastructure of the country.3 It is also believed that revised DPP are the increase in the offset baseline the Goods and Services Tax (GST) operational since from Rs 300 crore to Rs 2,000 crore; fast-track July 2017 will create a level playing field for investors, acquisitions by eliminating repetitive procedures; particularly in the manufacturing sector, in addition to transparency; allowing procurements in case of single expediting the movement of goods and services across vendor situations with “proper justifications” etc.5 them. Given these measures, India became the top Furthermore, in DPP 2016, the Ministry of Defence global FDI destination in 2015, overtaking both United has introduced a new category for acquisition — States and China. Data reveal that FDI inflows into Indigenously Designed Developed and Manufactured India increased by 29% to a record US$ 55.6 billion (IDDM), which, along with the Buy and Make Indian during 2015-2016, coming as a dividend of ‘Make in categories will help global Original Equipment India’, showcasing it as an important investment Manufacturers and Indian companies forge destination and an emerging global hub for partnership for co-development and co-production. manufacturing, design and innovation. It further hit In sum, ‘Make in India’ offers great potential to the an all-time high of $60.1 billion in 2016-2017, private sector to build base and become a part of the attributable to the opening up of hitherto conservative global supply chain of the world’s multi-billion defence sectors like rail infrastructure and defence.4 market. India’s focus on indigenous manufacturing in the defence space is paying off as the Ministry of In this backdrop, greater emphasis has been Defence has unveiled several indigenously- laid on collaboration in defence technology, co- manufactured products like the HAL Tejas Light development and co-production at a time when the Combat Aircraft, the composites Sonar dome, a Indian defence sector is at the cusp of an inflexion Portable Telemedicine System for Armed Forces, point wherein the future growth will be propelled by Penetration-cum-Blast and Thermobaric (TB) indigenous manufacturing, both for domestic and ammunition specifically designed for Arjun tanks, a global clients. This will offer investment opportunities heavyweight torpedo (Varunastra) manufactured with in defence products manufacturing, supply chain 95% locally sourced parts and medium range surface sourcing opportunity and defence offsets. The to air missiles. According to the Defence Achievement situation is further facilitated by permitting FDI at Report: 2016, the Defence Acquisition Council 100%, with the removal of the clause of requirement (DAC) cleared deals exceeding Rs. 82,000 crore, of single largest Indian ownership of 51% of equity and the quantum of export of defence equipment is and lock-in period of three years on equity transfer. expected to reach US$2 billion by 2018. 6 Additionally, within the scaffold of the ‘Make in India’ campaign, the Government of India, in its pursuit of One of the greatest beneficiaries of the attaining greater self-sufficiency in the realm of ‘Make in India’ - defence manufacturing component defence equipment, has prioritized military among the ‘Act East’ partners is Japan. New Delhi’s modernization, increasing stakes that foreign defence decision to allow defence FDI up to 100% with a contractors were allowed to hold in joint defence rider that the project should involve “modern ventures from 26% to 49%. India is expected to spend technology” has enthused the Japanese defence US$ 100 billion over the next decade on a defence industry with respect to its investment prospects, upgrade programme, thus expanding the horizon of facilitated by Tokyo’s relaxation of rules on export of both indigenous initiative and foreign collaboration in defence equipment and technology (undertaken in this sphere. As a matter of fact, since during the April 2014), which hitherto concentrated exclusively period October 2014-September 2015, the defence on the domestic market in order to demonstrate its component of ‘Make in India’ received a lacklustre commitment to peace. Japan’s ShinMaywa Industries response of foreign investments (Rs. 56 Lakh), New – manufacturer of US-2 SAR amphibious aircraft - Delhi announced encouraging changes in November betting big on the ‘Make in India’ plank, had offered 2015 in the sphere of attracting FDI in defence, further to set up a plant in New Delhi (under the 30% offset supplemented by the introduction of some new rules clause) to cater to international demands.7

56 World Focus November 2017 Incidentally, the DPP outlines are in sync with Japan’s acquisitions, offsets, defence production and other Ministry of Defence’s Acquisition, Technology and such processes,12 thereby facilitating Ease of Doing Logistics Agency (ATLA) Guidelines (October 2015), Business. aimed at managing efficiently defence equipment acquisition, promoting defence equipment cooperation Bolstering Maritime Cooperation: ‘Act East’ as with its allies, thus boosting Japan’s involvement in the Focus international development programmes.8 Besides On the ocean front, it is common knowledge that the Japan, India is holding talks with its other ‘Act East’ largest among the Indian Ocean navies, the Indian partners, prominent among them being Vietnam on Navy operates two carriers ‘INS Viraat’ and ‘INS the maiden sale of indigenously developed short range Vikramaditya’, while the third carrier ‘INS Vikrant’, Surface-to-Air ‘Akash’ missile and supersonic is under construction. The Navy plans to build another BrahMos missile. India extended $500 million line of aircraft carrier which may be nuclear propelled, credit to Vietnam for facilitating deeper defence upping the ante for its evolution as a three carrier cooperation in the context of their elevation of ties to force by 2030. India is the only country in the Indian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September Ocean region which operates a nuclear submarine 2016. Thailand has exhibited keen interest in ‘INS Chakra’, in addition to the indigenous nuclear- procuring defence equipment and establishing joint powered submarine, ‘INS Arihant’ ready for ventures with India, related to technology transfers, operations, thereby providing the third leg of the purchases of certain maritime equipment, or nuclear triad.13 The growing prowess of the Indian expanding commercial agreements between Navy was demonstrated at the International Fleet shipbuilders or cooperation in military aerospace Review held in Vishakhapatnam (4-8 February 2016). programmes.9 Malaysia is eager to purchase Sukhoi In course of this grand show of naval power and fighter spares from India in return for selling Mig-29 sophistication, Narendra Modi acknowledged that the aircrafts to India, thus forming an important Indo-Pacific region remains the nation’s priority, since component of the bilateral military agreement, signed it serves “as a strategic bridge with the nations in our during the Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Tun immediate and extended maritime neighbourhood”. Razak’s visit to India in March-April 2017.10 Finally, Emphasizing the need for a “modern and multi- under the umbrella of Indo-South Korea Special dimensional navy”, Modi further asserted that India Strategic Partnership and the ‘Make in India’ drive, would continue to actively pursue and promote its the two sides have signed a Memorandum of geopolitical, strategic and economicinterests on the Understanding (MoU) to firm up bilateral cooperation seas.14 The centrality of the Indian Ocean Region in defence shipbuilding, enabling India’s Hindustan (IOR) in India’s AEP has been abundantly Shipyard Limited (HSL) to execute naval projects in demonstrated by unveiling the maritime guidance a timely manner. 11 Furthermore, in the most recent document, ‘Indian Maritime Security Strategy/IMSS initiative, the Indian Defence Ministry is – 2015’, in order to bolster the Navy’s operational contemplating the creation of a specialised Defence sphere and influence. The strategic importance of Procurement Organziation (DPO) to streamline mega the maritime area comprising the Andaman Sea was arms acquisitions as well as leverage them to build a revealed years back in 2001, with the construction of robust Defence Industrial Base (DIB) in the country. the first Tri-service theatre command of the Indian The creation of the DPO as “a strategic imperative Armed Forces, based at Port Blair, allowing it to keep for longterm self-reliance” would be the second big- a close watch on China’s naval forays in the Indian ticket defence reform to be set in motion after the Ocean, safeguarding the sea lanes converging “strategic partnership (SP)” policy is finalised to boost towards Malacca Straits and also offering a good the private sector’s role in defence production, jointly launch pad for India’s anticipated role as a “net- with global armament companies. The “professional security-provider” in IOR. This emphasis should not and empowered” DPO, once operational, will only be viewed as the Indian Navy’s demonstration “amalgamate” what the Defence Ministry currently of its evolving role as a “net security provider”, but does in “a fragmented and isolated manner” by also as a means to balance China’s Maritime Silk integrating the longwinded and cumbersome arms Route, an umbrella term referring to maritime

The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership 57 infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific region, Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) and viewed as a supplement of the “string of pearls” emergence of maritime security cooperation as a strategy, aimed at encircling India and challenging priority area for the Indian Ocean Regional Association the Indian Navy’s role and stature in the region. (IORA); and fourth, the growth and development of In keeping with the principles and concepts of national the Indian Navy’s force levels and maritime security and maritime power, enunciated in the Joint capabilities, with steady focus on indigenization.15 Doctrine (Indian Armed Forces) and the Indian Maritime Doctrine, IMSS-2015 builds upon the Indian IMSS-2015 dilates the geographical scope Navy’s Vision Statement and Guiding Principles of India’s maritime focus, expanding the two areas (2014), which highlight the strategic ‘way points’ for of interest southwards and westwards by bringing in the next decade. It reviews the key maritime strategic the South-West Indian Ocean and Red Sea within its imperatives and influences, articulates the national ‘primary area’ and the western Coast of Africa, the maritime interests and maritime security objectives, Mediterranean Sea and “other areas of national in addition to deriving corresponding strategies for interest based on considerations of Indian Diaspora, attaining them. On the one hand, while acknowledging overseas investments and political reasons” within the hybrid nature of maritime challenges, exacerbated its ‘secondary area’ of interest. This acknowledgement by the almost overlapping nature of traditional and clearly transcends the Indo-Pacific region, with the non-traditional threats, the document harps on the 2004 and 2009 editions of the Maritime Doctrine imperative of envisaging a seamless and holistic expounding the northern IOR as the ‘primary area’ approach, advocating greater coordination among of interest. IMSS-2015 even goes beyond IMMS- different maritime agencies. On the other hand, it 2007 to include two additional chokepoints: the justifies the significance of the Indian Navy as the Mozambique Channel and Ombai-Wetar Straits, primary instrument to secure the oceanic which are strategically located at the far end of the neighbourhood for economic purposes. south-western and south-eastern Indian Ocean respectively, thereby formally reiterating the Indian Towards this end, the IMSS-2015 has Ocean’s geo-strategic ‘exclusivity’ for India. The recommended a four-pronged strategy under the expanded sphere of the Indian Navy’s operational present and emerging circumstances: first, it has domain, as envisaged in the latest maritime strategy advocated steady increase in the Indian Navy’s has also been evident in its burgeoning interest and operational footprints across its areas of maritime responses to the changing dynamics of the South interest, with a growing cooperative framework and China Sea. The strategic location of the South China contributions as a ‘net security provider’ in the Sea and its rich reservoir of natural resources (both neighbourhood, for maintaining “the state of actual organic and inorganic, including minerals, marine security available in an area, upon balancing prevailing livestock/flora and fauna, and energy reserves) make threats, inherent risks and rising challenges in the it a vital naval lifeline for India, facilitating the passage maritime environment, against the ability to monitor, of commercial and passenger vessels through its contain and counter all of these, including deployments waterways and accounting for the passage of more for anti-piracy, maritime security, Non-combatant than 60% of its sea-borne trade. In addition to its Evacuation Operations (NEO) and Humanitarian commercial interests, India’s engagement with Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations; Vietnam for oil exploration is another substantive issue second, an expansion in maritime operational of its stakes in the littorals. Given this backdrop, engagements, with increased number and complexity India’s vision of realizing “a peaceful, open, equitable, of exercises with foreign navies, coordinated stable and rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific region mechanisms for maritime security operations, and and beyond”, while upholding “the principles of enhanced training, technical and hydrographic sovereignty and territorial integrity; peaceful cooperation with friendly maritime forces; third, settlement of disputes; democracy, human rights and continued development of regional cooperative the rule of law; open global trade regime; and freedom approaches for enhancing maritime security in the of navigation and over-flight”, has been emphasised IOR, including operational interactions like ‘MILAN’, in various international fora. Of late, the developments

58 World Focus November 2017 in the South China Sea like China’s island building periodic exercises, viz. Coordinated Patrols spree, enhanced with military surveillance, (CORPAT) with Indonesia and Thailand; India- communications and logistics infrastructure as well Myanmar Coordinated Patrol (IMCOR); Singapore- as Beijing’s rejection of the July 2016 verdict of the India (SIMBEX) Exercises; Australia-India Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China (AUSINDEX) Exercises; Japan-India (JIMEX) Sea have created ripples in India’s diplomatic circle. Exercises etc. have added significant heft to the New Delhi has been vocal in urging concerned momentum of maritime coordination between India “parties” to “show utmost respect for the United and the participating nations. Among the most Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea prominent interactions, mention may be made of the (UNCLOS)” by “ensuring freedom and safety of six CORPAT exercises (24th to 29th cycles) conducted navigation and over-flight as well as unimpeded lawful with Indonesia, during the period under review, while commerce in international waters”. Furthermore, it its expanded version, the Inaugural India-Indonesia has called upon all concerned States “to avoid Bilateral Maritime Exercise was held in October 2015 unilateral actions that could lead to tensions in the in the Andaman Seas. The importance of bilateral region,” acknowledging that “full and effective strategic cooperation increased manifold with the implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the scheduling of the First Bilateral Maritime Exercise Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and early together with the 26th CORPAT edition. The 27th and conclusion of the negotiations to establish a Code of 28th CORPAT cycles were held in April-May 2016 Conduct by consensus will contribute to peace and and October 2016 respectively, the latter coinciding stability of the region.” India’s concerns pertaining to with the Second Bilateral Maritime Exercise, which Chinese aggressiveness and vitiation of the common saw the participation of one warship and one Maritime Lebensraum, is therefore, not unfounded, considering Patrol Aircraft from each Navy. The latest, 29th its geo-economic stakes in particular and in the CORPAT cycle, was conducted in May 2017 in the interests of overall peace and security in general. Andamans.16 In January 2017, within the scaffold of expanding its military training, technology-sharing, Shades of Maritime Interaction: India and Select joint exercises, visits and exchange of experts with ‘Act East’ Partners various Southeast Asian navies like Singapore and The ‘Act East’ phase has demonstrated an impressive Vietnam, the Indian Defence Secretary, G. M. Kumar, trajectory of bilateral and multilateral maritime in course of his visit to Jakarta announced New interactions between India and its ‘Act East’ partners, Delhi’s decision to train Indonesian naval personnel within the broad framework of defence and strategic in the complex art of submarine operations. As part relations. In the backdrop of India’s proactive AEP of an operational deployment to South Indian Ocean and Indian Navy’s increasing footprint and operational and South China Sea, ‘INS Ranvir’, ‘INS Satpura’, reach in the neighbouring littorals, as highlighted in ‘INS Shakti’ and ‘INS Kamorta’ - the latest and IMSS-2015, these exercises and interactions are indigenous Anti Submarine Warfare corvette - visited aimed at securing the unimpeded commercial flow Kuantan in Malaysia in June 2015, to conduct naval and access to resources in the Sea Lanes of exercises with its counterpart for achieving Communication (SLOCs), freedom of navigation in interoperability in communication and SAR international waters, the right of passage and over- procedures. In this context, mention may be made of flight, in accordance with recognized principles of the institution of annual talks between the Heads of international law, especially the UNCLOS; enhancing the Indian Coast Guards and the Malaysian Maritime mutual understanding and inter-operability; conducting Enforcement Agency including during Head of Asian HADR exercises; Search and Rescue (SAR) Coast Guard Agencies Meeting as well as the operations and meeting other challenges posed by mechanism for sharing of information, including for non-traditional security threats, thereby reflecting HADR and White Shipping. It was followed up with shared concerns for sustaining peace and order in visits of ‘INS Sahyadri’, ‘INS Shakti’ and ‘INS the waters. Towards this end, the regular naval and Kirch’ to Port Kelang in July 2016 for enhancing Coast Guard exchanges with its ‘Act East’ mutual cooperation through professional interaction counterparts in general and the conduct of specific, and holding of the inaugural Joint Table Top exercise,

The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership 59 marking another milestone in maritime security In the maritime domain, India and Thailand cooperation. India and Singapore beefed up the have embarked upon enhancing cooperation in the visage of maritime cooperation with the signing of a spheres of anti-piracy, safeguarding SLOCs and coast Technical Agreement on sharing White-Shipping guard cooperation to maintain peace and security of information, in course of Indian Chief of Naval Staff, navigation in littorals. Two warships of the Indian Admiral R. K. Dhowan’s visit to Singapore in July Navy’s Eastern Fleet - ‘INS Satpura’ and 2015. The fervour of maritime cooperation was ‘INS Shakti’ - as well as a fleet tanker and support sustained with the regular conduct of SIMBEX ship entered Sattahip in Thailand (and Cambodia) as bilateral exercise between the two navies. The 21st part of a broader operational deployment to Southeast and 22nd iteration of SIMBEX were held in May Asia and the Southern Indian Ocean in June 2015. 2014 and 2015 respectively, transcending the emphasis The visit was “aimed at strengthening bilateral ties on anti-submarine warfare to more complex maritime and fostering interoperability between navies of the exercises, involving various facets of naval operations. two friendly nations”, in course of which, official calls, The 23rd phase of SIMBEX, held in October- receptions on board, guided tours for Indian naval November 2016, in the Bay of Bengal, involved a personnel and professional interaction between the series of naval warfare serials, including air defence personnel of both the navies were undertaken. This exercises, anti-submarine exercises, gunnery live- was followed by Admiral R. K. Dhowan’s visit to firings, integrated operations with surface, air and sub- Thailand the very next month, wherein the two sides surface forces, and surface encounter exercises. It agreed to push forth cooperation and comprehensive saw the participation of a destroyer, ‘INS Ranvijay’, Maritime Domain Awareness through exchange of embarked with an ‘Alouette III’ helicopter, White Shipping information and increasing scope of ‘INS Kamorta’, a Kilo-class submarine, two Hawk coordinated patrolling, thereby adding heft to the aircrafts and two maritime patrol aircrafts from the overall visage of maritime relations. Besides, the Indian side. The latest iteration (24th cycle) was meeting of the Joint Task Force on Maritime Security conducted in the South China Sea (sea phase) in May held in October 2015 converged on deepening 2017, which embraced a series of advanced naval maritime cooperation on a range of issues, including warfare drills, including air defence exercises and ocean safety, disaster management and anti-terror gunnery live-firings. The SIMBEX (sea phase) drills. Significantly, both sides agreed to work towards culminated in a mission-oriented surface action group the completion of the negotiation for the signing of exercise wherein assets and personnel from the two the White Shipping Agreement, which was decided navies worked together to plan and execute a series during Narendra Modi’s visit to Thailand in June 2016. of warfare missions. Besides, the exercise comprised In keeping up the momentum of CORPAT exercises, a shore phase held at the ‘RSS Singapura – Changi the 19th cycle was held in the Andaman Sea in Naval Base’. On the whole, SIMBEX has progressed November 2014, aimed at effective implementation both in scale and complexity over the years – from a of UNCLOS, including countering piracy, drug serial-based exercise to mission-based exercise, trafficking, poaching, arms smuggling and incorporating scenarios with threats from surface, safeguarding freedom of navigation. The latest, 23rd underwater and air. Of particular importance was cycle of CORPAT, held in November 2016, saw the the fact that the drills witnessed the inaugural participation of ‘INS Karmuk’ and a Dornier aircraft. participation of Singapore Air Force’s F-15SG fighter These exercises are pertinent in the upholding of aircraft and a Fokker-50 maritime patrol aircraft.17 shared bilateral “interest in the security of international These endeavours may be viewed in the backdrop of sea lanes of communication and commerce”, and their the inaugural Singapore-India Defence Ministers’ “resolve to strengthen bilateral engagement in the Dialogue held in July 2016, which pledged to enhance areas of security and defence of the region as a whole, bilateral defence partnership under the revised besides promoting regional economic integration and Defence Cooperation Agreement (November 2015), connectivity.”18 Additionally, India has signed White by stepping up collaboration and practical cooperation Shipping information-sharing agreements with to address common security concerns, such as in the Vietnam and Myanmar for improving data-sharing areas of counter-terrorism and maritime security. on non-classified merchant navy and cargo ships.

60 World Focus November 2017 Apart from these individual ASEAN facilitating the ease of doing business, have emerged members as illustrated above, India’s interactions at as a major plank of its overall policy spectrum. In this the multilateral podium have been modest during the backdrop, greater emphasis has been laid on period under review. For instance, focused on collaboration in defence technology, co-development boosting interoperability in the medical and disaster and co-production with India’s ‘Act East’ partners, response capabilities, in May 2016, ‘INS Airavat’ specifically Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea participated in the ASEAN Defence Ministers and the like. This will definitely provide even greater Meeting (ADMM) Plus Exercise on Maritime dynamism to the already-existing collaboration in the Security and Counter Terrorism - a multinational sphere of defence (whether in the form of regular exercise under the aegis of ADMM Plus consortium exchanges, joint exercises or high-level defence - in Brunei and Singapore, participating in various drills visits). Furthermore, the level of India’s maritime and exercises in the South China Sea, along with the engagement with its ASEAN and wider Asia-Pacific ASEAN members and its five ‘Move East’ partners partners has received a major fillip under the ‘Act (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South East’, significantly facilitating its role as a “net Korea), US and Russia. The Indian Navy’s security provider” in the Indian Ocean Region. Under association with the US-led biennially-held largest the given circumstances, it is evident that the ‘Act multinational exercise - ‘Exercise RIMPAC’ - East’ Policy aspires to be more proactive and engaging commenced in 2012 as an observer. In 2014, Indian in its entirety. naval participation was enhanced with deployment of ‘INS Sahyadri’ in its 24th edition, providing it an Endnotes 1 Narendra Modi’s address at the 9th East Asia Summit meeting held in Naypidaw, opportunity to interact with the ASEAN navies of Myanmar, 13 November 2014,http://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/ Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore 24238 Prime_Ministers_ remarks_at_the_9th_East_Asia_Summit_ Nay_Pyi_Taw_Myanmar (accessed on 1 October 2017) and Thailand and the five ‘Move East’ partners 2 For details, see Official Website of Make in India, http://www.makeinindia.com/ policy/foreign-direct-investment towards increasing interoperability and development 3For details, see http://www.makeinindia.com/eodb andhttp://dipp.nic.in/ of common understanding critical to ensuring the English/Investor/easeDoingBusiness.aspx 4 “FDI Inflows Touch a New High of $60.1 bn in2016-17”, Hindu Business Line safety of sea lanes. The professional exchanges in 20 May 2017 5Defence Procurement Procedure 2016:Backgrounder, Ministry of harbour and diverse range of activities at sea, Defence,Government of India, 2016, http://ww.mod.nic.in/writereaddata/ including complex surface, sub-surface and air Background.pdf, pp. 2-4 (accessed on 1 October 2017) 6 For details, see Defence Manufacturing Sector – Achievements Report 2016, operations also enable sharing of best practices and Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion and Department of Defence Production, 13 February 2017, http://www.makeinindia.com/article/-/v/ honing of operational skills among the participants. defence-manufacturing-sector-achievement-report The latest (25th) edition, held in 2016 was witness to 7 “‘Make in India’ Boost: Japan Offers to Set up Plant in India for US-2 Amphibious Aircraft”, Economic Times, 1 February 2016 the display of capabilities ranging from disaster relief 8 John Grevatt, “Japan Launches New Procurement Agency“, IHS Jane’s Defence Industry, 2 October 2015, http://www.janes.com/article/54984/japan-launches- and maritime security operations to sea control and new-procurement-agency(accessed on 1 October 2017) complex war-fighting exercises, including a mass 9 “India, Thailand to Boost Defence Ties”,The Indian Express, 18 June 2016 10 “India Keen to Buy Mig-29 Aircraft from Malaysia: Malaysian Prime Minister”, casualty drill, replenishments-at-sea, submarine SAR, Economic Times, 5 April 2017 11 “India, South Korea Sign Pact for Defence Shipbuilding”, Economic Times, aircraft refueling, and multiday diving operations. 21 April 2017 12 Rajat Pandit, “Govt. To Set Up Specialised DefenceProcurement Organization”, Times of India, 15 May2017 Conclusion 13 Vijay Sakhuja, “Indian Ocean Politics and Security”, Institute of Peace and Conflict StudiesForecast, 2016, http://www.ipcs.org/special-report/india/ipcs- In sum, the enhanced level of coordination in the forecast-016-182.html, pp. 60-62, (accessed on 1 October 2017) 14 United Through Oceans – International Fleet Review 2016, Integrated defence and naval spheres between India and its ‘Act Headquarters of the Ministry of Defence (Navy), New Delhi, 2016, pp. East’ partners reflects India’s presence and shared Introduction, 126 15Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy, Directorate of concerns for sustaining peace and order in the Strategy, Concepts and Transformation, Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy), New Delhi, October 2015, pp. 11-12, http://indiannavy.nic.in/ strategic waters, naturally having a bearing on the sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf country’s overall Southeast Asia and Asia Pacific (accessed on 2 October 2017) 16 “29th India-Indonesia CORPAT Commences”, Press Release, 9 May 2017, policy. To conclude, the ‘Make in India’ initiative Indian Navy,https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/29th-india-indonesia-co- ordinated-patrol-corpat-commences(accessed on 2 October 2017) unveiled by the NDA-II government has elevated 17 Charmaine Ng, “Singapore, India Navies Conclude Annual Bilateral Maritime India’s image as an attractive investment destination Exercise”, The Straits Times, 24 May 2017, http://www.straitstimes.com/ singapore/singapore-india-navies-conclude-annual-bilateral-maritime-exercise, to the international market and the associated rules (accessed on 2 October 2017) 18 Indian Vice President, Hamid Ansari’s Address at State Banquet hosted in his that aim at reducing administrative regulations, Honour by the Thai Prime Minister, Gen. Prayut Chan-o-ch,, “India, Thailand Firm Up Maritime Cooperation”, The Hindu, 4 February 2016 The ‘Act East’ Policy: Contours of Defence Cooperation and Emerging Partnership 61 India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race Dr. Rajesh Kumar

China’s military rise in recent years has enhanced neighbours. China’s security cooperation with South its strategic engagement with countries within and Asian countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and around the region. China’s strategic engagements Bangladesh has placed India in a mode of strategic with South Asian countries like Pakistan, Sri arms race with its largest neighbour China. Debates Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh has placed India have been taking place that can India afford to fight in a mode of strategic arms race with its largest two and a half war, that too, during recent Dokalam neighbour China. Debates have been taking place (India-Bhutan-China triangle border area) crisis with that can India afford to fight two and a half war, China that lasted for several weeks. Past several that too, during recent Dokalam (India-Bhutan- years, China has been exporting strategic weapons China triangle border area) crisis with China that to Pakistan and other smaller South Asian countries. lasted from June 16 till August 28,2017. Past China’s nuclear cooperation with Pakistan, Iran and several years, China has been exporting strategic North-Korea is known to all important world bodies weapons to Pakistan and other smaller South including the U.N. An assertive China, in recent years Asian countries. China’s nuclear cooperation with has been questioning international norms and practices Pakistan, Iran and North-Korea is known to all and interpreting issues in its own way. Sino-Pakistan important world bodies including the U.N. An strategic cooperation has grown deeper over years assertive China, in recent years has been posing serious challenges for India’s security planners. questioning international norms and practices China has also avoided discussing strategic arms race and interpreting issues in its own way. Sino- related issues with India bilaterally. Today, India- Pakistan strategic cooperation has grown deeper China-Pakistan stand locked in an arms race like over years posing serious challenges for India’s situation which has a nuclear dimension too. Scholars security planners. China has also avoided say, India’s enhanced level of strategic cooperation discussing strategic arms race related issues with with the USA and Japan both is responsible for India bilaterally. Today, India-China-Pakistan increased Sino-Indian strategic rivalry apart from their stand locked in an arms race like situation which bilateral dynamics. India’s seeking of membership of has a nuclear dimension too. Scholars say, India’s NSG, MTCR and UNSC and others are being opposed enhanced level of strategic cooperation with the by China and often being linked with Pakistan’s USA and Japan both is responsible for increased membership. Sino-Indian strategic rivalry apart from their bilateral dynamics. India’s seeking of membership The case of China’s nuclear cooperation with of NSG, MTCR and UNSC and others are being South Asian partner Pakistan is a fit case which has opposed by China and often being linked with increased nuclear arms race in South Asia. India’s Pakistan’s membership. This paper looks into nuclear programme which was largely Pakistan emerging nuclear arms race scenarios with centric, of late is also focused on deterring China too. shifting balance of power in South Asian region. Presence of so many powers with their declared It also suggests methods for reducing tensions nuclear doctrines and necessary delivery system with between two giants. asymmetrical threat perceptions in which Pakistan’s nuclear strategy is India-centric; India’s nuclear Introduction deterrence involves both China and Pakistan; and China’s rise in recent years has enhanced its strategic China’s strategic calculation is intertwined with that engagement with countries of South and South East of the United States and Japan. This paper looks into Asia region leading to strategic competition among emerging nuclear arms race scenarios with shifting 62 World Focus November 2017 balance of power in South Asian region. It also countries, specially, Pakistan. China’s ambitions in the suggests methods for reducing tensions between two Indian Ocean region and Arabian Sea further giants. complicate the situation. For China, deepening of Indo- US strategic cooperation in recent years is seen as India-China Bound to Extend their Influence in strengthening of balance of power against it and South Asia containing its influence in Central, South, South-East South Asia region always remained under the Asia and South Pacific region. At the same time, Sino- overarching influence of a larger India. All SAARC Pak strategic cooperation puts strain and pressure countries accused India for dominating upon them. It on India’s security policy. China’s 21st century was Pakistan which pursued policies of never flagship projects like One Belt and One Road (BRI) accepting India’s dominance by alternatively allying and CPEC have potentials to aggravate the Indian with U.S.A. and China. However, recent years have security complexities further. seen increased competition and deepening of rivalries between China and India over their engagements with Nuclear South Asia and India-China Relations South Asian neighbours. China in last few decades It is only in South Asia region in the world where has succeeded in connecting itself with South Asian three countries India, China and Pakistan all sharing region through well built highways and rail-networks, borders with each other are also nuclear powers. A thereby gaining unrestricted access towards Arabian large portion of their annual defence budget gets spent Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Since long, on account of developing new strategic weapons. All China has exerted its influence on all the South Asian these countries also remain largest importers of arms countries, except India and worked along all of them at world level. Since Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement for reducing India’s influence in the region. China of 2008 that allowed the Nuclear Suppliers Group which has replaced Russia as a balancer to the USA (NSG) to permit trade in civilian nuclear materials at the global level continues to challenge U.S.A. led with India, nuclear cooperation dynamics among India, New World Order. U.S.A., China and Pakistan have become highly competitive. The pending border disputes between For India, continuing with the economic India-China and India-Pakistan continues to impinge growth and seeking strategic autonomy with in and upon their nuclear policies which has taken military around the region remains high on to agendas of Prime orientations in present era. Minister Narender Modi’s government. It is security concerns which have often guided India’s relations Theoretically, experts such as Kenneth Waltz with her South Asian neighbours. Asymmetrical and John Mearsheimer believe that the spread of relationship between India and her neighbours always nuclear weapons is conducive to peace – that “more made smaller South Asian countries to involve China may be better” for regional, even global, security. as a counterweight to India, thereby, complicating the These proliferation “optimists” argue that nuclear security scenario at the cost of strained relations with weapons only serve a deterrent function and would India. Briefly, China’s policy towards South Asia at never be used offensively in conventional war against present is of having ‘all weather partnership’ with another nuclear-weapons state (NWS). This is also Pakistan, continue with ‘string of pearls’ policy for known by theory of rational deterrence whereby the encircling India through land and maritime routes and awesome destructive power of nuclear weapons remain wary of US presence in South Asian region. prevents any rational actor from initiating a China through closer security cooperation with conventional war with another NWS for fear that it Pakistan and other countries has been trying to turn could escalate into nuclear exchange.1 On the balance of power against India. Thus, South Asia contrary, scholars like Scott Sagan and other remains caught into geo-strategy and geo-politics of proliferation “pessimists” believe that the increased powers like India, Pakistan, China and the USA. number of NWS does not rule out conventional war Overall, China has been working constantly to keep or the possibility of escalation into nuclear conflict, Indian influence at bay through coercive policies like and as such “more will be worse.2 World over nuclear openly opposing India and favouring other South Asian policies of countries remain influenced by such

India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race 63 theories. China has entered into nuclear agreement China’s considered Dokalam to be Bhutan’s territory with Pakistan for compensating the advantage India and claimed that it had right to settle border dispute gained in aftermath of Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement. with Bhutan where India had strong reservations and India-Pakistan continue to pursue their declared it sent its armed forces into Bhutan’s territory as it nuclear doctrines. India continues to pursue No First has been India’s duty to take appropriate measures Use (NFU), whereas, Pakistan’s doctrine says that in case of Bhutan’s security and foreign affairs related it may use nuclear weapons against India without matters. However, the entire crisis got defused by caring for India’s NFU in case of protecting its withdrawing of their forces from the area in last week supreme national interest. At the same time, India of August 2017 bilaterally. continues to remain sceptical about China’s nuclear and missiles cooperation with India. For China, In recent decades China has taken many Pakistan is a key ally for neutralising India’s ever other steps so as to ensure that it succeeds in reducing increasing nuclear weapons capabilities. China wants its strategic gap with U.S.A. also. All such steps Pakistan to offer credible deterrence to India thereby continue to pose serious threats to India’s security restricting India from ever posing serious threat to also. India has been experiencing policy of China. encirclement from all the sides under ‘String of Pearls Policy’. India has also been experiencing severe Modernisation of China’s Conventional and pressure on its maritime capabilities also as China Nuclear Forces and Growing Indian Concerns PLA Navy has managed to increase its presence in China has been trying to enhance is global reach. IOC region. China has secured crucial agreements PLA global operations in recent years included, with Sri Lanka for using Hambantota Port and Sitwe counter-piracy patrols, humanitarian assistance and Port with Myanmar. Similar understandings it has disaster relief, exercises and sea lane security. reached with Maldives too apart from getting its naval Highlights include the deployments of the 17th and base opened in Djbouti situated close to Gulf of Aden. 18th Naval Escort Task Forces to the Gulf of Aden, The message has been clear and wide open. Its PLA Navy frigates escorting cargo ships carrying policies in South China sea, East China sea and Yellow chemical weapons materials out of Syria, search and sea have also pointed out that China will pursue rescue support for Malaysia Airlines MH370, assertive and aggressive policies vis-a-vis its participation in UN peacekeeping missions, neighbours on regular basis. The following paragraph circumnavigation of the African continent, and the helps us in knowing China’s modernisation of its first-ever deployment of a SHANG-class nuclear PLANavy. powered submarine (SSN) and SONG-class diesel electric submarine (SS) to the Indian Ocean.3 The China is fielding a growing number of Second Artillery Force possesses at least 1,200 short- conventionally armed MRBMs, including the CSS-5 range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) in its inventory. Mod 5 (DF-21D) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). China is increasing the lethality of its conventional The CSS-5 Mod 5, with a range of 1,500 km and missile force by fielding a new ballistic missile, the manoeuvrable warhead, gives the PLA the capability CSS-11 (DF-16), which possesses a range of 800- to attack ships in the western Pacific Ocean. The 1,000 km. The CSS-11, coupled with the already Second Artillery continues to modernize its nuclear deployed conventional variant of the CSS-5 (DF-21) forces by enhancing its silo-based intercontinental medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), will improve ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and adding more survivable, China’s ability to strike not only Taiwan, but other mobile delivery systems. China’s ICBM arsenal regional targets.4 All such developments are sufficient currently consists of 50-60 ICBMs, including the silo- to worry not only U.S. but also Indian policy makers. based CSS-4 Mod 2 and multiple independently- Chinese media raised a lot of hue and cry during targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)-equipped Mod 3 recently defused Dokalam crisis. It boasted a lot of (DF-5); the solid-fuelled, road-mobile CSS-10 Mod 1 China’s newly attained nuclear missiles capabilities and 2 (DF-31 and DF-31A); and the shorter range and issued several warnings to Government of India CSS-3 (DF-4). The CSS-10 Mod 2, with a range in for withdrawal of its armed forces from Dokalam. excess of 11,200 km, can reach most locations within

64 World Focus November 2017 the continental United States. China also is developing China begins developing and fielding its next- a new road-mobile ICBM, the CSS-X-20 (DF-41), generation SSBN, the Type 096, over the coming possibly capable of carrying MIRVs.5 decade.7 The PLAAF possesses one of the largest forces of advanced long-range surface-to-air missile All such developments clearly reflect that (SAM) systems in the world, consisting of a China to a very large extent has succeeded in reducing combination of Russian-sourced SA-20 (S-300PMU1/ its conventional as well as strategic gap reduced vis- 2) battalions and domestically produced CSA-9 (HQ- a-vis U.S., at the same time strategic gap is fast 9) battalions. In an effort to improve its strategic air increasing between India and China. India and defense systems even further, China plans to import Pakistan are also on the path of developing MIRVs Russia’s S-400/Triumf SAM system, as a follow-on for their armed forces and compelling all of them to to the SA-20, and may simultaneously develop its hold negotiations with each other regarding arms indigenous CSA-X-19 (HQ-19) to provide the basis control measures. It is the transfer of missiles for a ballistic missile defense capability.8 These imports technology by China to countries like North Korea have augmented China’s indigenous manufacturing and Pakistan that these countries continue to pose capabilities. Showcasing of Chinese modern weapons serious threats to security of many countries of the capabilities is also seen as Chinese leadership’s world. President of North Korea, Kim Jong Sung has attempt to assume complete control over PLA as well openly been threatening U.S.A., Japan and South as CPC just before the commencement of NPC’s Korea through its nuclear capable inter- continental 19th meeting in October 2017. President Xi-Zin Ping ballistic missiles. is expected to be given second tenure and will continue to remain General Secretary of CPC and China’s Modernisation of Armed Forces Chief of PLA too. through Arms Import China is increasingly capable of producing its own China As Leading Arms Exporters to South advanced weapons and has become less dependent Asian Countries on arms imports, which decreased by 25 per cent As discussed in preceding section, Chinese exports between 2006–10 and 2011–15. While in the early- of major arms increased by 88 per cent between 2006– 2000s, China was by far the largest arms importer, it 10 and 2011–15, and China’s share of global arms dropped to third place in 2011–15. However, China exports rose from 3.6 to 5.9 per cent. China supplied remains partly dependent on imports for some key major arms to 37 states in 2011–15, but the majority weapons and components, including large transport of these exports (75 per cent) were to states in Asia aircraft and helicopters, and engines for aircraft, and Oceania. The rate of growth in Chinese arms vehicles and ships. Engines accounted for 30 per cent exports was also most pronounced in that region: of China’s imports in 2011–15. In 2015 it signed orders Chinese exports of major arms to states in Asia and for air defence systems and 24 combat aircraft from Oceania in 2011–15 were 139 per cent higher than in Russia, indicating that China is also not yet self- 2006–10. Pakistan was the main recipient of Chinese sufficient in those categories. China’s largest supplier exports, accounting for 35 per cent, followed by of arms in recent decades has been Russia, which Bangladesh and Myanmar, accounting for 20 and 16 accounted for 59 per cent of Chinese imports, followed per cent respectively (all three states are neighbours by France with 15 per cent and Ukraine with 14 per of India, the leading importer of arms in the region).9 cent.6 Apart from its imports, China continues to Thus, security scenario in South Asian sub-continent produce the JIN SSBN (Type 094) with associated stands complicated. CSS-NX-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that has an estimated range of 7,400 Changing Nature of China’s Nuclear Doctrine km. This capability represents China’s first credible, It is true that India’s no-first- use stance is not open- sea-based nuclear deterrent. China also inducted its ended as it leaves open the possibility of retaliation first SSBN nuclear deterrence patrol sometime in in the event of an attack on it or its forces by nuclear, 2015. Four JIN-class SSBNs are currently biological or chemical weapons. Nevertheless, there operational, and up to five may enter service before can be no mistaking the purely defensive role accorded

India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race 65 by India to nuclear weapons. 10 The nuclear weapons with sufficient strength to inflict unacceptable damage policies of the United States are the most on an enemy. A new generation of mobile missiles, prominent external factors influencing Chinese with warheads consisting of MIRVs and penetration advocates for raising the alert level of China’s aids, are intended to ensure the viability of China’s nuclear forces. China maintains a small nuclear strategic deterrent in the face of continued advances arsenal—well under 300 warheads—that is kept off in U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Russian strategic ISR, alert: the warheads are separated from the missiles precision strike, and missile defense capabilities. (Kristensen and Norris 2015). Many U.S. analysts Similarly, India’s nuclear force is an additional driver believe it is only a matter of time before Chinese behind China’s nuclear force modernization. The PLA nuclear weapons policy changes as well. Some argue has deployed new command, control, and that a change is already well underway (USCC 2015). communications capabilities to its nuclear forces. Some analysts believe those developments may herald These capabilities improve the Second Artillery a significant increase in the size of China’s nuclear Force’s ability to command and control multiple units arsenal. For the first time, China is discussing putting in the field. Through the use of improved its nuclear missiles on high alert so that they could be communications links, the ICBM units now have launched quickly on warning of an attack, similar to better access to battlefield information, uninterrupted the current state of U.S. and Russian missiles. This communications connecting all command echelons, would be a significant—and dangerous—change in and unit commanders are able to issue orders to Chinese policy. The experience with U.S. and Soviet/ multiple subordinates at once, instead of serially, via Russian warning systems, especially early in their voice commands. deployment and operation when hardware and procedures were not yet reliable, illustrates the It has clear message for U.S. and India both dangers of maintaining the option to launch on in the 21st century. Overall, China has a nascent warning. Such risks are especially acute in a crisis.11 nuclear triad, but one that remains limited primarily All such developments have serious bearings on India’s by range, arsenal size, and operational experience. overall security and strategic environment. China’s estimated 50 H-6K bombers, with a range of about 2,000 miles, are only able to deliver a payload Recently Western governments and media to targets in nuclear weapons states as Russia, U.S. outlets have expressed growing concerns about territory Guam, and the Indian subcontinent. China Chinese nuclear build up, in particular, Beijing pursuing currently fields approximately 50 to 60 ICBMs, nuclear parity with the US and Russia, when both including an estimated 24 solid-fuelled, road-mobile reduce their arsenals under the NEW START. Such CSS-10 Mod 2s (DF-31A). The CSS-10 Mod 2 has voices were amplified when Georgetown University a range exceeding 11,200 km and can reach most professor Phillip Karber released a study indicating locations within the continental United States. In that a 3,000-mile-long network of underground addition to its fleet of 14 Ohio class SSBNs, the U.S. tunnels—sometimes called China‘s ¯underground nuclear triad boasts 20 B- 2A and 70 B-52H long- great wall — could host as many as 3,000 nuclear range bombers, and at least 450 ICBMs. Russian weapons.12 All such capabilities have emboldened nuclear forces include 13 SSBNs of various classes China towards Asia-Pacific, South Asia, South-East and 78 Tu-160 and Tu-95 long-range bombers, and at Asia and Central Asian countries. Its assertiveness least 332 ICBMs..13 India in recent years also has is being experienced in Indian Ocean region, South been trying to develop its nuclear triad capability at China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea region. the earliest to counter threats from China and Pakistan No such mechanism of Arms Control measure exists both. among China and South Asian Nuclear Powers like India and Pakistan. India-Pakistan Nuclear Rivalry and Dynamics of China-Pakistan Nuclear Cooperation China’s Nuclear Doctrine in the 21st Century Despite terrorists attack on India’s Pathankot air base China’s nuclear weapons policy prioritizes maintaining and India’s army base in Uri, Kashmir in 2015 and a nuclear force able to survive an attack and respond 2016, India and Pakistan, both sides officially commit

66 World Focus November 2017 to having a “minimum credible deterrent” in order to Pakistan for two new nuclear reactors at the reduce the costs of a nuclear arsenal and maintain a Chashma site—Chashma III and Chashma IV—in deterrent capability, this “minimum” number is not addition to the two it is already working on in fixed, as India and Pakistan do not agree on acceptable Pakistan.16 It would help Pakistan in giving a boost to arsenal size limits. For India, the commitment to a its strategic nuclear programme. credible minimum deterrent is “a policy based on ‘retaliation only,’ in which great emphasis is placed India’s Preparedness to Counter China- on survivability of nuclear forces. Pakistan also has Pakistan Dual Threat an interest in minimum deterrence as a cost-effective In April 2007, India successfully tested its Agni III option to help reduce any pressure for an arms race.14 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). The Agni Beijing continues to use Pakistan as a distant balancer III was India’s first missile that could reach China’s towards India and that therefore it is still deepening entire territory, and in its 3,500 to 4,000-kilometre its military cooperation with India’s arch rival. range, the People’s Republic is also the only nuclear Beijing’s support to Pakistan’s medium and short- power that would be a relevant target. Despite range ballistic missiles is well documented. financial hiccups and limited knowhow, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), After the United States pushed its nuclear the agency charged with the development of India’s cooperation agreement with India through, China nuclear arsenal, is continuing to work on Multiple responded swiftly by announcing a ‘step-by-step’ Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) approach to fulfilling Pakistan’s aspiration for an technology to enable the Agni III to circumvent expanded nuclear programme. That Beijing continues Chinese missile defence countermeasures.17 In to back the Pakistani military in spite of the political particular, the development of longer-range missiles turmoil also appears from recent decisions to provide like the Agni-V and the Agni-VI and the quest for it with new frigates and J-10 fighter planes.15 China the sea leg of the nuclear “triad” has been propelled is in process of selling the K-2 and K-3 ACP1000 by China’s concern only. Thus, China, India and nuclear reactor design (although they are marketed Pakistan are deeply caught in a strategic triangular as the export version, the Hualong-1) to Pakistan relationship who share a history of conflicts and which has been offered generous financial terms by border disputes. the Chinese suppliers; any risks associated with the maturity of the technology are reportedly being offset To summarise, the People’s Republic by soft loans in the region of US$6.5 billion. Close possesses approximately 400 nuclear missiles, and strategic cooperation with China has enabled Pakistan many Indian strategists believe India is one of the to maintain tough stand on Kashmir and Proxy war targets. In 2002, India’s Annual Defence Report issues with India. claimed that ‘every major Indian city is within reach of Chinese missiles and this capability is being further Indo-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation and China’s augmented to include Submarine Launched Ballistic Concerns Missiles (SLBMs). The asymmetry in terms of The U.S.-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation nuclear force is pronouncedly in favour of China and pact came as a shock to Beijing. It viewed the nuclear is likely to get further accentuated as China responds deal through the lens of global balance of power and to counter the US missile defence programme.’ was perturbed about the U.S. desire to build India as Several studies suspiciously go over China’s assumed a balancer in the region. China was opposed to an missile deployment in military bases in Tibet, such as exemption to India from the NSG guidelines, and till Naghshuka, Tsaidam, Delinga, and other nearby date it continues to oppose, India’s membership to places like Kunming and Datong.18 Analysts are of NSG. To counter the U.S.-India nuclear pact, China view that Beijing is concerned about India’s Advance has decided to allow its state entities to supply two Air Defence (AAD) programme that can affect the new nuclear reactors to Pakistan. Chinese authorities impact of its older generation of single-warhead have confirmed that the state-owned China National IRBMs. It has also hinted that the new missiles could Nuclear Cooperation has signed an agreement with undermine superiority over Tibet, and that its

India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race 67 relevance as a buffer will be undermined by India’s also taken a number of steps for reducing China’s gradual nuclear build-up. threat into Indian Ocean region. Since 2004, India’s military establishment has integrated two more Indian Recent Arms Procurement to help in variables to its new strategy: border tensions with Reducing Strategic Gap with China China and containing the Chinese rising naval The U.S.A. sold India ten C-17 heavy-lift aircraft presence in the Indian Ocean. In 2009, the Indian worth US$4.1 billion. In March 2009 the US Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor announced a government authorized the US$2.1 billion sale of eight new ‘two-front war’ doctrine: ‘there is now a Boeing P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft to proportionate focus towards the western and north- the Indian Navy. Before that, in January 2008, eastern fronts’ (Pandit R., 2009). The missions of Washington approved the US$1 billion sale of six the Indian Air Force, be-sides acquiring a leading role Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules military for nuclear deterrence, have also been widened to transport planes. Similarly, in 2007 the Indian Navy cover an extension of the strategic reach from the purchased the USS for US$48 million. The Trenton Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. is a landing-dock vessel and was also the Indian Navy’s first-ever US-built naval vessel. In 2005, India But the most important novelty is certainly and the US signed a historic defence framework that, the development of the first-ever Indian maritime for the first time, included joint production of arms. doctrine contemplating a ‘blue-water’ role for the Previously, in 2002, the US sold to India 12 Raytheon- fleet and nuclear-armed submarines for strategic manufactured weapon-locating radars in a deal worth deterrence. India, which has already Asia’s most $200 million.19 Based on projections over the next powerful fleet, is planning to add about 100 warships five years, India is expected to spend upwards of to its navy within 2020 (Lamont J.& Sood V., 2009) US$30 billion on advanced weapons systems. and to enlarge its naval footprint. New Delhi has Although Russia and Israel remain India’s two leading already signed maritime defense cooperation defense suppliers, arms sales from the US are set to agreements with Oman and Qatar, has established expand over the coming years. India has also started an electronic monitoring station on Madagascar and receiving supply of 36 French made Rafale fighter has won the contract from Iran for developing a naval aircrafts on outright purchase basis. base and trading en-try pôrt at Iran’s Chah Bahar port as an answer to China’s presence in the Pakistani In the light of China’s sustained military build- port of Gwadar (Blanche Ed., 2009; Kaplan R., 2009). up, India has also been speeding up its defense India is also leading and upgrading the Milan biennial procurement. Between 2010 and 2016, India is Indian Ocean-Asia-Pacific naval exercises, where expected to spend $112 billion on capital defense China is conspicu-ously absent. 21 In another example acquisitions in what is being described as “one of the of increasing co-operation between Washington and largest procurement cycles in the world.” The Indian New Delhi, the US Defense Security Co-operation Army is raising two new specialized infantry mountain Agency recently announced India’s intention to divisions (35,000 soldiers) and an artillery brigade for purchase 32 US-manufactured MK-54 lightweight Arunachal Pradesh, designed to redress the imbalance torpedoes, in a deal worth US$86 million. The on the Sino-Indian border. It is also revising its agreement is indicative of the growing confluence of conventional war-fighting doctrine that is aimed at strategic interests between the two countries, which deterring—as opposed to dissuading—China, though in recent years has seen relations flourish.22 its meaning in operational terms remains far from clear. The Indian military is currently refining a “two- The Indian Navy is aiming for a total fleet of front war” doctrine to fend off Pakistan and China 140-145 vessels over the next decade, built around simultaneously.20 The current Dokalam crisis will two carrier battle groups: Admiral Gorshkov which expedite the process of infrastructure projects getting will now be handed over to India only by 2013 and completed soon. It is in this context Army Chief the indigenous carrier, the 37, 500-tonne STOBAR General Rawat said that India is fully capable of Air Defense Ship likely to be completed by 2015. fighting two and a half battle as on today.India has India’s ambition to equip its navy with two or more

68 World Focus November 2017 aircraft carriers over the next decade, as well as its commensurate with new found capability of fighting decision to launch its first indigenous nuclear two and a half battle simultaneously. However it also submarine in 2009, is seen as crucial for power need to work together with China and Pakistan both projection and to achieve a semblance of strategic for reducing dangers of nuclear war completely. India autonomy. India’s emerging capability to put a carrier need to convince China which refuses to discuss task force as far as the South China Sea and the nuclear issues with India so far. China continues to Persian Gulf has given boost to Indian Navy’s blue- insist on the sanctity of the UN resolution 1172 which water aspirations and India hopes to induct a third calls for India (and Pakistan) to give up its nuclear aircraft carrier by 2017, ensuring that the Indian Navy weapons program and join the Nuclear Non- has two operational carriers at any given point. The Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nonnuclear weapon deployment of the Jin class submarine at Hainan by state. In sum, China has refused to engage in any China will also force India to speed up its indigenous nuclear dialogue with India that might give the nuclear submarine project that has been in the making impression it recognizes India as a nuclear power. for more than a decade now with the Indian Navy, For the same reason, China refuses to discuss nuclear rather ambitiously, aiming at the induction of five confidence building and risk reduction measures with indigenous Advanced Technology Vehicle (AT V) India. It is high time that India-China-Pakistan agree nuclear submarines. A submarine-based nuclear to a mechanism for slowing down of regional missiles arsenal is considered critical by Indian strategists to and other strategic arms race into the sub-continent. retain a second-strike capability.23 The chance of nuclear terrorism also can’t be ruled out. Hence, all three countries need to put into place The United States has also recognized the some mechanism for allaying such fears completely. importance of India’s role in the region, viewing it as In facing of the common enemy of terrorism, the non- crucial in maintaining peace and stability in the Indian state actors, China, India and Pakistan also need to Ocean and its vast periphery. The U.S. and Indian find a breakthrough point for cooperation on the navies have stepped up their joint exercises and the nuclear issue. On the global stage, India and China United States has sold India the USS Trenton do share common interests. All three countries also (renamed INS Jalashwa), the first of its class to be need to support UN led Nuclear Weapons Convention inducted into the Indian Navy. India is seen as a wholeheartedly. India also to need to come out with balancer in the Asia-Pacific where the U.S. influence out of box thinking with Pakistan which was seen has waned relatively even as China’s has risen. India’s when Modi became PM in May 2014. China has been ties with Japan have also assumed a new dynamic taking stand on global issues as a responsible power with some even mooting a “concert of democracies” along with other major powers inside and the outside proposal involving the democratic states of the Asia- the United Nations. China’s arms transfers and Pacific working towards their common goals of a cooperation with Pakistan continues but at the same stable Asia-Pacific region. While such a proposal has time it has been trying to introduce element of little chance of evolving into anything concrete in the independence in its relations with India. near term, especially given China’s sensitivities, Notwithstanding, resumption of bi-lateral talks India’s decision to develop natural gas with Japan in between India and Pakistan and India and China, the Andaman Sea and recent military exercises Sino-Pak strategic cooperation and rivalry between involving United States, Japan, India and Australia India and China would continue in future too. India does give a sense of India’s emerging priorities. 24 also need to remain realistic that presence of NATO/ US forces in Afghanistan and some Central Asian Conclusion Republics next to China always remains a security India’s multi-prong approach for dealing with China- concern and they are expected to take appropriate Pakistan joint threat has started paying dividends in decisions and China’s proximity with Pakistan has to recent years. Defusing of Dokalam crisis is an be understood differently. South Asian countries ought example where India did not care for Chinese threat to learn managing their relations with China and India for several weeks together. It showed its both to their advantage without being responsible for determination to go for war with China if needed in pitting China and India against each other. China also

India-China Relations: Avoiding Strategic Arms Race 69 need to remain sensitive towards Indian concerns Many Nukes Does China Have? Plumbing the secret regarding CPEC and BRI projects. Underground Great Wall,Wall Street Journal, 24 October 2011. http://online.wsj.com/article/ End Notes: SB10001424052970204346104576639502894496030.html. 1 Kenneth Waltz’s,”The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: 13 Ibid., More May Be Better”, Adelphi Paper 1981. 14 India’s Nuclear Doctrine and Pakistan’s Nuclear 2 Scott Sagan, “The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Doctrine are accessed from their Government’s Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear website. Weapons,” International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4 (1994). 15 T. V. Paul, “Chinese-Pakistani Nuclear/Missile Ties 3 Office Of The Secretary Of DefENSE Annual Report and the Balance of Power”, The Non-proliferation to Congress: Military and Security Developments Review, Summer, 2003. Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015. 16 Harsh V. Pant ,China And India: A Rivalry Takes Shape 4 Ibid., pp.8-9. accessed from www.fpri.org 5 Ibid., pp.8-9. 17 Rahul Bedi, ‘India Holds Back from Test Firing Agni 6 Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2015 Aude III’, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 24 May 2006; Thapar Fleurant, Sam Perlo-Freeman, Pieter D. Wezeman And Vishal, ‘Agni-III Raring to Go, Government Not Keen’, Siemon T. Wezeman , SIPRI Fact Sheet February 2016, CNN-IBN, 15 May 2006; Varun Sahni, p.3. ‘India and Missile Acquisition: Push and Pull Factors 7 Office Of The Secretary Of Defense Annual Report ’, South Asian Survey 11/2 (April 2004), 287–99 in to Congress: Military and Security Developments Holslag, Jonathan(2009) ‘The Persistent Military Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015pp.8-9. Security Dilemma between China and India’, Journal 8 Office Of The Secretary Of Defense Annual Report of Strategic Studies, 32: 6, 811 — 840 accessed from to Congress: Military and Security Developments URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390903189592. Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015pp.12- 18 Govt. of India, Ministry of Defence, Annual Report 13. 2002. 9 Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2015 Aude 19 Sergei Desilva-Ranasinghe, South And West Asia Fleurant, Sam Perlo-Freeman, Pieter D. Wezeman And Research Programme, accessed from www.fdi.org. Siemon T. Wezeman , SIPRI Fact Sheet February 2016, 20 Harsh V. Pant , “China And India: A Rivalry Takes p.3. Shape” accessed from www.fpri.org 10 Nuclear Disarmament A Way Forward, IDSA Task 21Pandit R. 2009. ‘Army Reworks War Doctrine for Report, 2010. P.20. Pakistan, China,’ The Times of India, 30 Dec. 2012, 11 China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces Blanche Ed. 2009. ‘Enter the Tiger and the Dragon: on Alert Gregory Kulacki January 2016 , This report India and China move into the Arabian Sea to pro-tect is available online (in PDF format) at http:// their energy lifelines to the Middle East,’ The Middle www.ucsusa.org/ChinaHairTrigger East Magazine, Apr. 6-11 in , Lamont J. & Sood V. 12 Phillip A. Karber, Strategic Implications of China’s 2009. ‘India plans to build 100 warships,’ Financial Underground Great Wall, Georgetown University, 26 Times UK, 31 July2012 In Alfredo G. A. Valladão, September 2011, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/ Brazil, India, and China: Emerging Powers and Warfare Karber_UndergroundFacilities-Full_2011_reduced.pdf; in The Oxford Handbook of War, Oxford (UK) : Oxford William Wan, ¯Georgetown students shed light on University Press, 2012. p. 80-96. China‘s tunnel system for nuclear weapons,Washington 22Sergei Desilva-Ranasinghe, Manager, South And West Post, 29 November 2011, http:// Asia Research Programme, accessed from www.fdi.org www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/ 23 Harsh V. Pant ,China And India: A Rivalry Takes Shape georgetown-students-shed-light-on-chinas-tunnel- accessed from www.fpri.org system-for-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/16/ 24 Harsh V. Pant ,China And India: A Rivalry Takes Shape gIQA6AmKAO_story.html; Bret Stephens, ¯How accessed from www.fpri.org 70 World Focus November 2017 India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges Dr. Saleem Ahmad

“We have no eternal allies, and we have no consequences for India’s interests in the region and perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and China-US ties can also become transactional under perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to the US President Donald Trump.4 Therefore, India’s follow.” foreign policy is in a transitional phase where new Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston, Remarks in friendships are being made while old ones seem to the House of Commons, March 1, 18481 be drifting away. Simutaneously, India’s relations with its immediate neighbours have been a matter of serious Modi’s Foreign Policy concern while its engagement with the outside world As the Narendra Modi’s government completes three has been improving continously. India’s stature in and half years in office, is a good time to evaluate international relations is increasing as the country is the performance of its foreign policy at the regional making efforts to be a part of all the major groupings as well as international levels. The government itself in the world, while PM Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ highlighted its achievements and the PM Modi has policy is turning into ‘Neighbourhood Lost’. In the welcomed evaluations of his government’s begining, he stated that the importance of having performance and suggestted that ‘constructive cordial relations with all the neighbours would be criticism strengthens our democracy’. Nevertheless, mutually beneficial for everyone in the region.5 this is not a sufficient time to evaluate government’s performance, especially one which came to office Neighbourhood Policy with the kind of transformative agenda the Modi Since, he came into power, a lot has changed government has. PM Modi wants to reshape the dramatically. Pakistan has become a bigger headache fundamentals of India’s foreign policy; it has been than it was earlier. Indo-Pak relations have seen “a argued that foreign policy is one area where the Modi roller coaster ride” in last three and half years. From government has performed reasonably well.2 On the inviting Nawaz Sharif to PM Modi’s oath taking other, this statement will not be widely accepted by ceremony to Modi paying an impromptu visit to the government’s critics at home but travel anywhere Pakistan on Nawaz Sharif’s birthday, from Pathankot in the world and you will find that India is now viewed attack to Uri attack, from Pakistan backed terrorism very differently compared to earlier. PM Modi has in Kashmir valley to surgical strike, the list goes on. asserted Indian interests in a way that has upped The latest being Indo-Pak face off at International India’s profile in global affairs. Now, India is building Court of Justice regarding Kulbhushan Jadhav’s case pressure around the Chinese periphery and is not clearly shows that ‘Neighbourhood First’ is turning hesitant in using powers like the US, Japan and into ‘Neighbourhood lost’. India’s other neighbours Australia to stabilize the Indo-Pacific region.3 are constantly being wooed by China which is Moreover, India’s response to the “Belt and Road investing a lot money in the form of “Check Book Initiative” was a reminder to Beijing that New Delhi Policy” in almost all the neighbour states.6 Moreover, too can keep its cards close to its chest till the last in December 2015, PM Modi made an unexpected minute, and has many ways to respond to the stopover at Lahore while returning from Afghanistan. challenges being posed by the Beijing-Islamabad Till then, the last Indian prime minister to visit Pakistan conspiracy on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. was Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004. However, as a In fact, there are many challenges for the Modi result, ties showed a decline again following a series government, but he is willing to take risks and there of terror attacks in India, and increasing ceasefire are no cost-free risks. Further, there are some violations by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir. PM fundamental changes taking place at the international Modi has continously spoken out against Pakistan’s level. The China-Russia relations can have long-term India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges 71 failure to curb terrorists on its soil from various government’s emphasis on regional connectivity is international platforms including the United Nations.7 also manifest through a trilateral agreement with the Scholars have argued that Indian policy on Pakistan, Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Transport China and Nepal has been a complete failure. Poorly Network.11 thought out and ill-prepared initiatives, have been accompanied by noisy sabre-rattling and Modi and China brinkmanship. The primary focus of Modi’s foreign After coming to power, PM Modi worked carefully policy is Modi: all policy has been almost entirely to neutralise China’s expansion by further Modi-centric, complete with celebrated media events strengthening alliance with the US and Japan, during his foreign tours. The Ministry of External something that was not possible during Jawaharlal Affairs and professional diplomats have been kept Nehru’s time and even after him during later Congress out of the loop and the consequence has been a governments. The efforts seem to have yielded complete lack of serious diplomatic engagement during positive diplomatic results with the Doklam resolution such visits. Rhetoric atmosphere has been the in India’s favour despite war-mongering rhetorics by dominant theme in the age of PM Narendra Modi.8 the Chinese state run media namely Global Times. Furthermore, New Delhi has drastically calibrated The Chinese media not merely blamed India for the its relations with the world leaving neither the US nor border face-off but also threatened New Delhi with Europe nor Africa nor the neighbourhood nor the rest dire consequences.12 However, the Modi government of Asia, including West Asia, untouched. There is stuck to its guns, not surrendering to the Dragon. hardly any important world leader with whom PM Europe and Asia watched the 72-day stand-off with Modi has not interacted person to person and not bated breath. Many countries liked the way India’s developed a level of rapport. Every bilateral or soft diplomacy put China on the back foot. India-US- multilateral deal which New Delhi inked had to leave Japan, an emerging powerful triangle in the world India with something solid in hand. This could be in politics, is a new alliance with a common agenda to terms of strategic gains, economic returns, deepening contain the growing influence of China, also forced cultural ties, cutting edge technology, uplift of the Beijing to settle dispute peacefully. Therefore, the needy, infrastructural up-gradation, cooperation in trilateral friendship has left China restless and it is counter-terrorism measures etc.9 However, China’s now looking for ways to isolate India in Asia.13 Former open support to Pakistan and its involvement in US President Barack Obama signaled this clearly terrorist activities in India has remained a serious with his “pivot to Asia’, which was an attempt to challenge for New Delhi. No Indian government, encirclement of China. On the other hand, Beijing is certainly not a ‘muscular’ Modi one, is in a position fast closing its military gap with the US and has to do business with it as long as Pakistan refuses to pursued policies like the “Belt and Road initiative” mend its ways. It would be erroneous to term India’s and its “String of Pearls” to dominate the Asia-Pacific Pakistan policy a failure, because failure has been region and beyond. Once again, the rest of the world from the other side. Even here, the Modi government will have to choose either side, an alternate strategy has succeeded in isolating Islamabad internationally; for alignment. India appears to be sided with the US barring China, none really trusts Pakistan today. largely because Indo-China relations never really Bangladesh and Afghanistan openly accuse Pakistan recovered after the 1962 war. India should also be of fomenting terrorism in their countries.10 India’s wary of any close military alliance with Washington relations with Bangladesh are better today than any that could potentially turn India as a theater for a time in the past; relations with Bhutan and Sri Lanka proxy war between China and the US in future. are also extremely good. The Modi government has Besides, Pakistan can also be used to fight such a made an agreement with Bangladesh for better war on behalf of China or alongside China. In such a connectivity between the northeastern states and the scenario, it is not clear how much help US can offer Indian mainland. Thus, bus routes linking Kolkata to India while fighting a catastrophic two front war Agartala and Shilong via Dhaka have started. India’s against nuclear powers.14 Therefore, India needs the proactive diplomacy in the immediate neighborhood world’s foremost military power to maintain a balance has been by and large successful. The Modi against China, while the US needs India because it is

72 World Focus November 2017 the only credible partner; it is also building a coalition Achievements in East Asia to confront China. Further, Relations with PM Modi has also successfully repaired New Delhi’s Japan are a subset of ties with the US, and again, ties with Washington, when former US President serve mutual needs like India wants Japanese Barack Obama sat as the chief guest at India’s investment and technology, while Tokyo seeks India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2015, the US– participation in the East Asian coalition.15 India joint statement issued affirmed ‘the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring Moreover, China’s increasing panetrations freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the into the Indian Ocean region have also worried New region, especially in the South China Sea. This is one Delhi, particularly in the light of Beijing’s so-called of big achievements for New Delhi, which has ‘string of pearls’ strategy of helping to build ports in previously avoided direct mentions of the South China Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. But, on the other Sea. On top of all this, India has tried to reach out to hand, India has concluded the landmark Land Africa in a big way. The third India–Africa Summit Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh, which has held in New Delhi in 2015 had representation from resolved the border dispute with Dhaka once and for all 54 African countries that have diplomatic relations all. Another important achievement has been India’s with India. New Delhi has extended 152 lines of credit membership in the Shanghai Cooperation to 44 African nations worth close to US$8 billion.19 It Organisation.16 Furthermore, the biggest has been argued that the PM Modi is right to step up improvements in India’s foreign relations seem to have the intensity of India’s engagement with major powers, been with Japan, New Delhi and Tokyo concluded a but NAM also provides the prime minister with an landmark civilian nuclear deal in November 2016. The opportunity to further the goodwill he has generated two countries are also collaborating in the development through engagement with Africa, the Pacific-Islands of the Trincomalee Port in Sri Lanka, while Tokyo countries and smaller players in the ASEAN has expressed an interest in the Chhabahar Port being grouping.20 Furthermore, India has also started focus developed by India in Iran. India is now collaborating on maritime strategy in the Indian Ocean with an eye with Japan in the “Asia–Africa Growth Corridor”, to counter China’s growing influence. India is which some observers see “as an alternative to cultivating relations at key points in the Indian Ocean, China’s Belt and Road Initiative”.17 To be noted that including the Arabian Gulf, the Malacca Strait and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in 2013, unveiled a novel Southern Africa. Special attention is being given to economic structure that would “connect China’s Silk Mauritius, which holds the key to the south-west Road Mercantile Belt project in Central Asia with its Indian Ocean, is also the entry point to the Atlantic Maritime Silk Road, through linked bodies of water Ocean. Besides, efforts are being made to expand from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean”. In ties on various fronts with Madagascar, Mozambique principle, these trade tricks centred on increasing and Seychelles.21 The “Look East” Policy, which has “China’s connection with countries along the ancient been an important facet of India’s foreign policy since Silk Road in Eurasia, while creating a new Silk Road the 1990s, has upgraded by the Modi government to across Asia to South Asia and Africa”. One part of “Act East” Policy in 2014, which focuses on the project is focused on the “creation of road strengthening ties with the extended neighborhood, connections between China and Eurasia, involving particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Under the infrastructure projects such as highways and rail links. leadership of PM Modi, India has strengthened The other part of the project concerns maritime routes strategic partnerships with countries like Vietnam, that will connect China with South East Asia, South Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Asia and ports up and down the east coast of Africa. Singapore. The share of India’s bilateral trade with The trade links once established will cover 65 per ASEAN countries is now almost 10 per cent of India’s cent of the world’s population, one-third of global GDP total trade. Connectivity is an important facet of “Act and a quarter of all goods and services in the East” Policy and the northeastern states are the international economy”.18 gateways of land connectivity to Southeast Asia. However, poor infrastructure and insurgency have been hindrances to road connectivity in the region.

India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges 73 Despite this, India’s trade with Myanmar through the investment (FDI) in 2016–17, making it one of the northeast corridor has increased by 86 per cent world’s largest recipients of foreign investment.26 between 2013-14 and 2015-16. The Modi government Therefore, under the leadership of PM Narendra has strengthened relations with Seychelles and Modi, India’s external engagement has embracing Maldives and launched “Project Mausam”, a project ‘multi-alignment’ with economic benefits now with soft influence in the region.22 becoming a major focus of Indian foreign policy. India has begun building partnerships with nuclear fuel deals PM Modi’s visit to Israel in July 2017, the with Australia, Canada and Japan and reached out to first ever by an Indian head of government, since ties the small island states in the Indian Ocean and South were established with Israel 25 years ago, finally Pacific.27 brought its close ties with the Jewish State. It makes India one of the significant countries to have excellent Modi and Russia relations with three civilisational adversaries in the Russia has been a longstanding and time-tested West Asia region namely Iran, Saudi Arabia and partner for India. Development of India-Russia Israel.23 Nevertheless, this historic visit of PM Modi relations has been a key pillar of India’s foreign policy. is clearly indicative of a significant shift in India’s Since the signing of “Declaration on the India-Russia foreign policy orientation. India’s present policy Strategic Partnership” in October 2000, India -Russia towards West Asia has many layers. In one respect, ties have acquired a qualitatively new character with it has not changed over the millennia but recently it enhanced levels of cooperation in almost all areas of has been readjusted to suit the needs of the fastest the bilateral relationship including political, security, growing economy of the world. New Delhi’s focus is trade and economy, defence, science and technology almost exclusively on the Arabian Gulf with only and culture.28 The Annual Summit meeting between minimal interest in the Maghreb and the Lebanon.24 the Prime Minister of India and the President of New Delhi has thus cultivated a number of important the Russian Federation is the highest bilateral relations in the region. At present, these institutionalized dialogue mechanism in the strategic include Israel, Iran and some of the Gulf monarchies partnership between India and Russia. So far 17 because all these relations are so strong, and Annual Summit meetings have taken place however, it would prefer not to have to choose alternatively in India and Russia. Russian President between them, India avoids picking sides in the volatile Vladimir Putin visited Goa from 15-16 October 2016 and geo-politically important region. Further, New for the 17th Annual Summit, which resulted in 19 Delhi is making strategic investments in the documents related to cooperation in defence, space, Chhabahar Port in Iran. In recent years, India signed information security, foreign policy, trade & security and defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, investment, hydrocarbons, shipbuilding, railways, and the UAE, Oman and Qatar. India has friendly relations science and technology.29 Sergei Chemezov, the CEO with all the regional players in the West Asia region of the Rostec State Corporation, stated that Russia but with no strings attached. Therefore, PM Modi’s will always be India’s strategic partner despite New historic Israel visit completes the circle.25In addition, Delhi’s growing ties with countries like the US, France PM Narendra Modi came to office with the image of and Israel as there are certain defence products and a strong and capable economic administrator. He was technology that “no one else will give” except widely expected to push ahead with economic reforms Moscow. We have our own niche; these countries and clean up the messy regulations that make India a have their own directions for cooperation. Therefore, difficult place for doing business. The Modi this does not mean that if India will work with some government significantly liberalised foreign investment other countries, cooperation with Russia will cease, rules in ‘sensitive’ sectors that were previously either says no. Also, in recent years, India’s defence ties blocked to foreign investment, or only allowed it to a with the US and Israel has deepened. PM Modi small degree under tight conditions. These enabling became the first Indian premier to visit Israel and the policies and his personal image have been major US designated India a major defence partner. India drivers of a surge in investor interest in India. India also inked a multi-million dollar deal with France for attracted around US$60 billion in foreign direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets last year.30

74 World Focus November 2017 However, several issues require further discussions and open economic linkages in this dynamic region, and specification of positions and intentions of both based on the rule of law”. Both sides agree that in sides. The growing friendship between Russia and developing ties with third countries, this should not be China, as well as Moscow’s appreciation of the “Belt at the expense of the tried and tested relations and Road Initiative” and the plans to co-develop the between India and Russia.34 Additionally, Russia has “Eurasian Economic Union” with the “Silk Road been selling military hardware to Pakistan. It is Economic Belt”, are being watched closely by India. believed that the two states are in discussions India has reservations about the geopolitical regarding the possible sale of Russian Su-35 consequences of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, as it warplanes to Pakistan. Pakistan also bought four Mi- will serve to consolidate China’s power in India’s 35 helicopter gunships from Russia in 2015. The neighbourhood. India has particular concerns about Hindustan Times reports suggested that over the last the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as it involves 15 months, the army, navy and air force chiefs of issues of its sovereignty.31 India has concerns about Pakistan have visited Russia to explore other such the growing “all-weather” friendship between military deals. Given the fact that Pakistan is the Pakistan and China, which has now taken a new world’s seventh-largest importer of defense dimension of providing China with naval use of the equipment, it could prove to be a lucrative market for Gwadar Port in Pakistan. In India’s view, China’s Russian arms manufacturers. This could have serious expansion into Eurasia is a counter to the US pivot consequences for India-Russia relations. On the towards the Asia-Pacific, apart from creating markets economic front, Russia has agreed to lend $2 billion for its excess capacity in certain sectors. This indirectly to Pakistan for the construction of 1,100 kilometer affects India too, as China’s westward expansion pipeline to transport liquefied natural gas from Karachi undercuts a potential role of India in the region. to Lahore.35 China’s military and nuclear cooperation with Pakistan continues to be of serious concern to India. This On the contrary, the growing mutual includes civil nuclear cooperation that in Indian view closeness between Russia and Pakistan are part of a violates China’s commitments as an NSG member.32 greater shift in international relations. In Europe, Russia is embroiled in a show down with the West Russia’s military cooperation with Pakistan over Ukraine, with Moscow’s military adventure in is a new development that India has noted with high Crimea being followed by Western sanctions. In the concern. In Russia’s view its military-technical Asia-Pacific, China’s encroachments in the South cooperation with Pakistan is only intended to improve China Sea have inflamed tensions with other Asia- counter-terrorist and anti-drug capacities, is not Pacific countries allied with the US. These directed against third countries and will not endanger developments have forced Russia and China to look the military balance in the region. India has always for allies, which explains the friendliness between the contested such a rationale by any country for supply two powers. Some analysts question whether a of arms to Pakistan. To remove any scope for partnership motivated by external factors could lead misunderstanding, India has been suggested that “the to an alliance of countries that formerly distrusted two sides should maintain a regular and frank dialogue each other.36 But the old saying that “the enemy of with regard to the impact of arms supplies to Pakistan my enemy is my friend” fits perfectly well here; the on India’s security”. For its part, Russia has concerns single most important factor that overrides all others regarding India’s growing ties with the US.33 The is their parallel perception of the US and its “policy growing defence relationship between India and the of containment” towards them. In fact, China needs US has affected “Indian purchasing from Russia, allies to change the world order and it begins with even though these remain at a high level”. PM Modi Asia. The growing relationship between the US and stated that Russia remains its primary defence partner. India, with their extensive trade ties and cooperation Russian concerns also include the closer on strategic issues of mutual concern in the sphere understanding between India and the US in the of defense technology and equipment, does frighten dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region. Both sides agree Pakistan from time to time. The China-Pakistan link that it is “essential to maintain freedom of movement is well known and is the most formidable leg of the

India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges 75 Russia-China-Pakistan triangle, the “congruence of hints of engaging in Kashmir dispute in support of interests” between the three states of Pakistan, China Pakistan. Since coming to power, PM Modi has not and Russia stems.37 left any opportunity to enrage China.41 Moving India from Manmohan Singh government’s balancing act Challenges to a pro-American tilt, particularly signing of the Despite these achivements, however, quite a few LEMOA and increased cooperation with the US Navy challenges remain on the foreign policy front for the in patrolling the Indian Ocean, PM Modi’s foreign Modi government. Dealing with China is the biggest policy has turned China to an open adversary. Nothing challenge for India, especially in light of the could explain his decision to boycott the formal launch “construction of the China–Pakistan Economic of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in May 2017 at Corridor as a part of the “Belt and Road Initiative”. Beijing. It forced the country to look completely New Delhi has not been happy with Beijing blocking isolated in South Asia and lonely in the world. Even India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. the so-called pro-India regimes in Bangladesh, Nepal By boycotting the “Belt and Road Forum” in Beijing and Sri Lanka openly sided with China.42 PM Modi’s in May 2017, it is clear that PM Modi has laid down decision to pursue a prolonged blockade against Nepal red lines in India’s relatons with China.38 Second, in 2015 has not only deteriorated bilateral relations India’s relations with Pakistan have “run into a logjam but also has pushed Nepal further towards China. in the aftermath of the attacks on the Pathankot Air Relationship with Bangladesh has also deteriorated Force base in India in early January 2016 and the Uri recently due to Modi’s failure to deliver agreements Army base in September 2016 by terrorists operating on shared rivers. More or less, China has now almost out of Pakistan”. In response, India conducted surgical surrounded India with its friends and allies. Modi’s strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied foreign policy has completely ignored the old and Kashmir. Third, maintaining relations with the US reliable friends in the Non-Aligned Movement, under the President Trump remain a big challenge particularly in Africa.43 India’s first prime minister, and his stand on the H-1B visa issue has not been Jawaharlal Nehru, had been the principal exponent very helpful either. Fourth, PM Modi’s robust and of nonalignment and all previous prime ministers from multi-aligned foreign policy has not been accompanied India also dutifully attended every non-aligned summit by a similarly energetic and proactive trade policy.39 and reiterated India’s commitment to the organization In spite of growing criticism, still many commentators and its professed goals of promoting human rights, in India regularly come out with their glorified self-determination, and universal disarmament. In a assessment of Modi’s performances as the Prime most curious departure, PM Modi chose not to attend Minister. On the foreign policy front, the “Modi 17th meeting of the movement, held on the island of Doctrine” has taken India to the global high table in a Margarita in Venezuela in September 2016.44 His big way. But no one knows exactly what is actually decision to skip NAM summit reflects poorly on his meaning of the “Modi Doctrine” in India’s foreign ability to utilise strategic levers that have served the policy. The question one needs to ask is what has country well in the past and continue to have achieved it in last 42 months? In the neighbourhood, relevance even today. Modi appears personally India’s relationship with its critical neighbour Pakistan committed to re-orienting India’s foreign policy in the has reached the lowest point in this regard.40 While 21st century, driven by its engagement with major in opposition, PM Modi had always attacked powers, like as the United States, Russia, Iran or Manmohan Singh government for its so-called “soft- China. This is a commendable objective, perhaps even policy of ‘keep talking’ to Pakistan”. Narendra Modi appropriate to India’s rise globally, but there is no came to power with the promise that he would follow reason that India’s participation in the NAM summit a “muscular strategy” that will frighten Pakistan from at the highest level has to be a casualty of cross- supporting Kashmiri separatists and engaging in cross party differences. Instead of staying away, the prime border shelling. Further, India’s border dispute with minister should have used the latest summit into its most powerful neighbour China has been materialise real interests.45 In Europe, the initial threatening to lead to a full-scale war. China is not enthusiasm of Modi’s coming to power has faded only issuing regular threats of military action, it also away. PM Modi is no more being seen as India’s

76 World Focus November 2017 Thatcher or Reagan. The only ‘tangible’ Modi’s opportunities with the gradual development of foreign policy achievement in the eyes of his admirers relationships with China and Pakistan, beacause, India is the stronger ties with the US while Barack Obama is moving towards the US and Russia is also moving was in power. Nothing tangible India has got from to the Pakistan to fill the vaccum created by the the US from the frequent high profile visits, but at the emerging relations betwen New Delhi and same time, India has given American forces free Washington. If India develops relations with the US access to its military bases. India has practically lost at the cost of Russia, it would be harmful for India in its independence in planning its own bilateral future because Russia will directly join China and relationship with its increasingly powerful neighbour Pakistan. PM Modi must not forget his own Russian China. Moreover, after the departure of Obama, India proverb which he used at the BRICS summit held in does not have much importance in Trump Goa last year: “One old friend is better than two new administration’s scheme of things. In the case of a ones.” Therefore, the emerging Russia-China- military confrontation with China and/or Pakistan, it Pakistan triangle will be dangerous for the security is very unlikely the US will openly side with India. At and the geo-political interests of India as well as the the same time, due to overt pro-American tilt by PM United States of America. India must develop relations Modi, India has lost the trust and assured support of with the US, but at the same time, carefully maintain an old and reliable friend like Russia.46 relations with Russia like earlier, and then only, New Delhi can deal strongly with Beijing and Islamabad. Conclusion In fine, the cherismatic personality of Narendra Modi End Notes: 1http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8762714/Time-for-a-foreign-policy-that-puts- and the unique style of leadership have provided a Britain-first.html 2http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/2BuQAIK7nndoYIfXX8av0J/Three-years-of-Narendra-Modis- foreign-policy.html fresh approach and vigour to the Indian foreign policy. 3http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/2BuQAIK7nndoYIfXX8av0J/Three-years-of-Narendra-Modis- foreign-policy.html He successfully tried to change the fundamentals of 4http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/2BuQAIK7nndoYIfXX8av0J/Three-years-of-Narendra-Modis- foreign-policy.html Indian foreign policy as according to the significant 5http://www.huffingtonpost.in/martand-jha/5-foreign-policy-trends-in-three-years-of-the-modi- government_a_22121586/ 6http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/NewsDetail/index/8/10937/Three-Years-Of-PM-Modi-A-Look-At- changes taking place at the international level. PM Foreign-Policy 7https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-years-of-narendra-modi-government-big-push-to-recast-foreign- Modi’s foreign visits have established close policy-1704317 8 https://www.cpim.org/views/3-years-govt-foreign-policy-shambles 9 http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/big-story/modis-foreign-policy-realism-at-the-core.html relationships with major countries of the world, 10 http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/big-story/modis-foreign-policy-realism-at-the-core.html 11 https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/modis-strategic-foreign-policy-vision-a-glass-half-full/ simultaneously; the credit of New Delhi has 12http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/doklam-resolution-departure-from-reluctant-foreign- policy.html significantly incresed at the global level. Moreover, 13http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/doklam-resolution-departure-from-reluctant-foreign- policy.html 14 https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/indias-choice-china-or-the-united-states/ PM Modi has created a new identity of India as an 15 http://www.orfonline.org/research/india-and-the-world-foreign-policy-in-the-age-of-modi/ 16 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/01/modi-upturning-indian-foreign-policy/ emerging global power with full of opportunities and 17 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/01/modi-upturning-indian-foreign-policy/ 18 http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/obor-is-the-grandest-failure-of-indian-foreign-policy- 4657738/ ready to play a crucial role in the global affairs. 19 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/01/modi-upturning-indian-foreign-policy/ 20 https://thewire.in/65644/nam-namo-skipping-summit-miss-india/ Though, his achivements are commendable in the 21https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-years-of-narendra-modi-government-big-push-to-recast-foreign- policy-1704317 realm of foreign policy, but there are serrious 22 https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/modis-strategic-foreign-policy-vision-a-glass-half-full/ 2 3http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/external-affairs-sushma-swaraj-pm-modi-government/1/ 956637.html challenges for him to deal with them will not be an 24http://www.nrttv.com/EN/birura-details.aspx?Jimare=6868 25http://www.nrttv.com/EN/birura-details.aspx?Jimare=6868 easy task. The growing influence of China in India’s 26http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/24/modis-first-three-years-some-wins-but-breakthroughs-yet- to-come/ 27http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/24/modis-first-three-years-some-wins-but-breakthroughs-yet- neighbourhood and the emerging alliance of three key to-come/ 28 http://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/India_Russia_May.pdf players such as Russia, China and Pakistan in the 29http://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/India_Russia_May.pdf 30http://indianexpress.com/article/india/indo-russia-ties-strong-despite-indias-growing-ties-with-us- region will alter the geo-political equations in the near israel-and-france-russian-military-firms-chief-4776844/ 31http://russiancouncil.ru/en/activity/publications/70th-anniversary-of-russia-india-relations-new- horizons-of-privileged-partnership/#detail future, and therefore, it will pose a big challenge for 32http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/China-contradicts-NPT-consensus-by-supplying-nuclear- reactors-to-Pakistan-Report/articleshow/53480665.cms India at the regional as well as international level. 33http://russiancouncil.ru/en/activity/publications/70th-anniversary-of-russia-india-relations-new- horizons-of-privileged-partnership/#detail st 34http://russiancouncil.ru/en/activity/publications/70th-anniversary-of-russia-india-relations-new- In the second decade of the 21 century, India has horizons-of-privileged-partnership/#detail 35 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/india-losing-russia-18208?page=show emerged as a close ally of the US at the regional 36 https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/russia-china-and-pakistan-an-emerging-new-axis/ 37 https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/russia-china-and-pakistan-an-emerging-new-axis/ level as well as international level. Consequently, this 38 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/01/modi-upturning-indian-foreign-policy/ 39 http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/01/modi-upturning-indian-foreign-policy/ 40https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/me-first-the-core-of-modi-doctrine-of-foreign-policy- strategic relationship has changed the geo-politics of damaging-for-india/299892 41https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/me-first-the-core-of-modi-doctrine-of-foreign-policy- the South Asia region, and power equations are damaging-for-india/299892 42https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/me-first-the-core-of-modi-doctrine-of-foreign-policy- damaging-for-india/299892 rapidly changing in a dramatic way and new balance 43https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/me-first-the-core-of-modi-doctrine-of-foreign-policy- damaging-for-india/299892 of power is taking place in the region. Now, Russia, a 4 4 https://twq.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/ TWQ_Summer2017_Ganguly.pdf 45https://thewire.in/65644/nam-namo-skipping-summit-miss-india/ close ally of India, trying to search new avenues of 46https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/me-first-the-core-of-modi-doctrine-of-foreign-policy- damaging-for-india/299892 India’s Foreign Policy in the Age of Narendra Modi: Achievements and Challenges 77 Manipulating Malthus: A Plausible Way of Moving Beyond the Hyphenated Relations Between India and China Dr. Arindam Roy

Friendly relations between India and China is not between them in history, culture and society. But the only mutually rewarding for these two Asian giants historical baggage of mutual suspicion, mistrust and but also sine qua non for the stability and enmity in the form of border dispute, and regional prosperity of the region. Together they constitute aspirations, had marred the relationship between them almost 40% of the total population of the world from time to time. Experts are often clueless in the with an expanding middle class. But apparent vicissitudes of the said relationships. Several unfortunately these two ancient civilizations have possible options have been chalked out to improve been drifted apart from each other from time to the bilateral relations between India and China, ranging time. History stands testimony of the fact that how from political economy, soft diplomacy like ‘diplomacy these two ancient civilizations had been drifted of moments’ in the form of people to people contact from bonhomie, goodwill to the other extremes of to military might. But demography is generally left animosities, border disputes and war. Though, out in between as a problematique to be contained by from 1980s, India and China had restored their both the countries. Drawing on the famous diplomatic ties by burying the hatchet to a great ‘Malthusian population Trap’1, a group of scholars extent, the warmth of the relationship has been has cautioned as to how an enviable growth rate2 replaced by an icy hyphen, waiting to be can be eaten up by the bludgeoning population growth3 strategically manipulated by the global powers. in said countries. The typical western strategy of hyphenating India china relationship and designing their policies The present paper on the contrary, however, accordingly had terribly affected the bilateral views this population growth as an advantage for these relation between India and China. The only silver countries and arguing in favour of exploiting this lining in the said relation has been the demographic dividend for the betterment of the said demographic dividend. Unlike the Malthusian relations. The paper has the following sections: doom’s day prediction of unbridled demographic section-I historically situates the strenuous relations explosion at a geometric rate vis-à-vis the between India and China; section II highlights the arithmetic rate of growth of food production, the major stumbling blocks in the bilateral relations present paper views that the demographic between India and China; Section-III explores the dividend, if properly tapped by both the countries, demographic dividend of the two countries to would help them moving beyond the hyphenated demonstrate how it can be manipulated for the sake relations and paving the way for a lasting peace of betterment of the bilateral relations; and finally the in the region. paper concludes that the icy hyphen4 between India and China can be removed if they capitalize on their Introduction: demographic advantage There is no denying that the future of Asia is largely contingent upon the warmth of relations between the Section-I two Asian giants. The stability of relations between Hence, the thawing of the relationship, if not the them is not only mutually beneficial for both the warmth, is the imperative for the development of both countries, but also imperative for the development of China and India. For, that would substantially relieve the region per se. The maturity shown by the political both the countries of spending huge amount of money executives in both the countries in de-escalating in militarization and country-specific programme. tensions, on the face of repeated provocations from However, the bilateral relations between India and the global powers, is indicative of such realizations. China has witnessed several shifts from an amicable In fact, there is considerable complementarily and friendly neighbors, championing the cause of 78 World Focus November 2017 friendly neighborhood policy through principle of independence in 1947 had established a diplomatic peaceful coexistence or Panch sheel5; to the other relationship with the nationalist Kuomintang extreme of border disputes; to a middle course of government and sent her first ambassador to China. rapprochement6 in terms of restoring diplomatic ties. In the meanwhile, the nationalist Kuomintang One would have understood the puzzling shifts in the government had lost their power to the communists, bilateral relations better had she seen the relationship who had established People Republic of China (PRC) through contending theoretical perspectives in in 1949. Indian government took no time to recognize international relations. During the birth of independent the communist- run PRC and became the first non- India and China in late 1940, idealism was the order communist state to do it. However, the Chinese of the day. India especially under the leadership Nehru communist party did not appreciate Indian stand. In had extended olive branches to all the neighbouring fact, given India’s closeness to the nationalist countries with an idealist dream of harmonious Kuomintang government, the Chinese communist neighborhood until the policy had encountered a rude leadership took the goodwill gestures on the part of rebuttal in the form of Chinese aggression in 1962. the Indian establishment with a pinch of salt. Despite relentless advocacy for a policy of friendly Though, the Chinese authorities were never neighbourhood and non-alignment by Nehru, the really convinced by the idealist portrayal of the world Chinese authorities seemed to be unmoved by such order. The Chinese volte face in pursuing their hard rhetorics. However, India’s China-friendly stands in national interest by intruding into Indian heartland, several international forums throughout this phase in which may be a breach of trust on the cursory glance, the form of localizing the conflict in Korea, her is actually a rational behaviour from the realist advocacy of China’s entry in the UN, supporting perspective. For the realists, international order was Chinese demand for the integration of Taiwan into no harmonious world of the sovereign states, governed the mainland China and so on had substantially by international law and democratization. In fact, it is changed the attitude of the Chinese authorities vis-à- a precarious form of order to the best and an vis India. international anarchy to the worst, where sovereign states are engaged in the state of a perpetual struggle Hence, the first decade of their independence for power. In fact, the root of such anarchy was had witnessed a cordial relation, if not a honeymoon embedded in the very human nature, which is phase between them with frequent sloganeering of fundamentally flawed. Hence, the unilateral the ‘Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai’, visits of leaders and announcement of ceasefire on the part of the Chinese summit level exchanges. The birth of panch sheel authorities is no surprise either. Even, the marked the watershed of the relationship of mutual rapprochement on the part China in the bilateral bonhomie and friendly neighbourhood. Both the relations by restoring the diplomatic ties, which was countries had agreed to abide by Pancha Sheel or duly reciprocated by India, was also no fluke either. five principles of peaceful coexistence Viz (1) mutual For, that stand was also commensurate to the national respect for each other’s territorial integrity and interest of China. Similarly the logic behind the sudden sovereignty, (2) mutual non-aggression, (3) mutual improvement in the bilateral relations from late 1980s non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, (4) till date, especially the kind of thawing in the equality and mutual benefit, and (5) peaceful co- relationship and corresponding rise of economic existence. interdependence can get its justification if we draw on the neo-liberal perspectives on complex But the relationship had started deteriorating interdependence. from 1959 with the Tibet issue, especially after India’s decision to give political asylum to Dalai Lama. Like Born out of the colonial subjugation almost many other intractable challenges of nation building simultaneously, these two Asian giants have had a across the globe, Tibet issue was also a handiwork of cordial relation between them as the natural allies. colonial masters to keep their colonial interests With an objective of forming a strong cooperation sustained across the colonies. To get into the root of among the erstwhile colonies, India soon after the complexities of the Tibet issue one needs to go

Manipulating Malthus 79 back to British colonial era. British had a very peculiar establishment of Indian trade agencies at Yatung, provision regarding Tibet, where it had recognized Gyntse and the opening of trade routes for travel and the Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, but did not rule out pilgrimage. The preamble of the agreement also read either the internal autonomy of the Tibetan or British that both the parties of the agreement would go by presence therein. The root of this provision was the the spirit of peaceful coexistence as enshrined in the tripartite accord signed in 1914 at Simla under the principles of ‘panch sheel’. But the pledge of peaceful tutelage of the British India government involving the coexistence notwithstanding, China had unilaterally representatives of Republic of China, Tibet and United imposed centralized state structure over Tibet in 1959, Kingdom. As an outcome of the accord a line of quashing the so-called regional autonomy of the demarcations was drawn over the Indo-China border, Tibetans. Understandably, such move on the part of popularly known as the McMahon Line. This line was the Chinese authorities had provoked a lot of ire among never accepted by the Chinese government. the Tibetans in the form of national uprising in 1959. Chinese authorities handled the situation in Tibet with The problem cropped up as the Independent iron fist. Consequently, there had been a huge exodus India had inherited the British prerogative to keep of Tibetans including their leader Dalai Lama to India. their presence in Tibet in the form of keeping political agents in Lhasa, maintaining postal and telegraph The relationship between these two countries services and trade routes, keeping a small contingent had reached to a new low when the Indian government of army to ensure safety of the British routes, and had accorded political sanctuary to Dalai Lama, maintaining trade agencies in the following strategic criticizing the high handedness of the Chinese locations of Tibet like Gartok, Gyantse, and Yatung. administration in handling the Tibet issue. In addition Though India had repeatedly acknowledged the to the Tibet issue, especially the way it was handled suzerainty of China over Tibet with relative autonomy by China, an undemarcated stretch of 2500 miles of of the Tibetan, Chinese authorities were not very sure mountainous terrain proved to be another front of about India’s motive and called for a total liberation hostility between China and India. The border issue of Tibet. In fact, India’s plea for peaceful settlement had been tirelessly pursued by Nehru since 1954 and of Tibet crisis within the framework of Chinese brought the misrepresentation of Indian border in the suzerainty was considered by the Chinese authorities Chinese map to the cognizance of the Chinese as a gross interference in their internal affairs. In the counterpart. But the Chinese authorities seemed to meanwhile a treaty between Chinese authorities and be in the denial mode from the very beginning, stating the Tibetans was signed, reiterating the Chinese stake that the ‘erroneous’ cartographic projection of China over Tibet. The treaty had categorically admitted the was the outcome of the reproduction of the old Chinese command over trade, communication Koumintang map and the Chinese communist regime systems and external affairs of Tibet under the had nothing to do with that. In fact, the Chinese framework of suzerainty7. Moreover, the treaty had premier had gone to the extent of claiming that 40,000 conceded the long standing demands of the Tibetan miles of Indian territory actually belonged to China for regional autonomy. and historically no agreement was signed between. In 1959, China had aggravated the situation by In a bid to deescalating the tension with China intruding as deep as forty kilometer inside the Indian over Tibet, India got into an agreement with China in territory, leading to the huge casualties. 1954, whereby it had given up her special status as the heir of British treaty rights. As a part of that, As a response to the Chinese intrusion, the India had not only agreed to pull out her small beleaguered Indian government had placed the entire contingent of army stationed at Tibet for ensuring frontier under the direct control of army as such an safety of the trade routes, but also decided to transfer act on the part of the Chinese authorities was all the post and telegraph services, so long controlled tantamount to direct affront upon the sovereignty, and by it, to the Chinese authorities. India had also territorial integrity of the country. Meanwhile, as a allowed the China to establish Chinese trade agencies conciliatory approach, the Chinese premier Zhou had in New Delhi, Calcutta and Kalingpong in lieu of the proposed status quo on the border. The Indian

80 World Focus November 2017 government under Nehru had set his conditions. In footholds in Asia. Hence, the warring giants in Asia the backdrop of such tensed situation, the Chinese took no time to realize the neocolonial interest in premier Zhou Enlai had visited India to settle the dragging the hostility between them and started border disputes with China. With a view to mending their fences. A visit of the then Prime ascertaining the border claims, both sides had agreed Minister Rajiv Gandhi to Beijing in the late 1980s and to entrust their officials to examine all the historical the reciprocation of it by his Chinese counterpart were documents, evidences, maps etc and submit the report the products of the said realization. The Pokhran II to them. The officials met thrice between June to nuclear test conducted by India in 1998 and the December 1960 , but with no avail. subsequent martial rhetoric on the part of the National Democratic Alliance government towards China, `The border dispute, however, refused to die deteriorated the Sino- Indian ties again. However, down as there were fresh incidents of intrusion on the enmity did not last long as globalization with its the part of Chinese government. The Indian agenda of unification of global market had compelled establishment had responded the inroad with huge both these contesting nations into a working deployment of arm forces along the international order, relationship. Moreover, nuclear capability of both these popularly known as the ‘forward plan’. In 1962, Nehru countries had forced them to behave in a more had proposed a mutual withdrawal of arms from the responsible manner. The traditional trading routes like border to get back to their respective positions and Nathula and Jelepla Passes in Sikkim were reopened also offered China to use Aksai Chin road for civilian to facilitate the bilateral trading relations between purposes. But China refused to accept the proposal India and China. Hence, India China relationship has and continued to build pressure on civil service. In witnessed numerous vicissitudes. Several intractable the midst of such tensed situation the India China factors can be held responsible for ups and downs of agreement of 1954 had lapsed owing to India’s Indo-Chinese relations. The section that follows will reservation to get into any negotiation with China, cast some light on those factor. keeping the military deployment intact. Amidst the negotiations and exchanges, the people’s liberation II army suddenly marched across the well defined Bilateral relation is contingent upon mutual trust. McMohan line in the eastern command. The Indian Unfortunately Indo-Chinese relations have been forces were literally overwhelmed by the Chinese suffering from mutual suspicion, and apprehensions. army, leading to the total collapse of border in the Several factors can be held responsible for the hands of Chinese. strenuous relationship, which include among others the unresolved border disputes, regional aspirations, On 24th October Chinese premier Zheo Enlai china’s hobnobbing with the India’s hostile neighbours put forward, three-point proposal for ceasefire, which etc. First, among the major hurdles in the relationship had been summarily rejected by Nehru. Nehru wanted between India and China border dispute perhaps negotiation only after the retreat of the Chinese army comes first. Thanks to British cartographers and their to their original position. The government of India colonial handiwork almost all the post colonial had proclaimed a state of emergency on 26th October countries which had been under the British colonial 1962. Interestingly, on 21st November 1962 the subjugation carry the legacy of intractable border Chinese government had abruptly announced dispute. unilateral ceasefire and the withdrawal of troops from the border. The humiliating defeat at the hands of Countries like India and China are no China had forced India to substantially increase its exceptions either. The border dispute between China military presence in the region bordering with China. and India is a complex historical issue. The complexity On the Indian side of the border alone, it had deployed is in fact embedded in the cartographic presentation approximately 200,000 to 220,000 troops. The situation of India and China. A total land mass of about 125,000 continued to be tensed till 1980s. Though, both the sq. Km. divided into the eastern, middle and western countries were keen to restore diplomatic ties as their sectors eastern sector including the McMahon Line enmity encouraged several global powers to set their appears to be disputed. Secondly, the regional

Manipulating Malthus 81 aspiration of the both countries creates another perfectibility of humanity. Malthus had a conviction stumbling block of the amicable bilateral relations. that humanity’s ability to reproduce too rapidly might These Asian giants try to expand their respective zone result its nemesis. His been seen as a problematique of influence by sending developmental aids among to be handled with utmost care. No serious attempt the Asian neighbours. Hence, any move, no matter has been made to consider the demographic dividend. how benevolent it is raises mutual suspicion. Thirdly, This section mainly draws on Malthusain predictions. Chinese bonhomie with India’s hostile neighbours Despite remarkable rate of economic growth of both further deteriorated bilateral relations. the countries( while China had an enviable 7-8% per annum range, India had a steady 6% annual growth For example, China’s Pakistan policy rate), there has been a persistent apprehension among especially China’s assistance to Pakistan in building the economists that these countries might fall into roads and power plants creates a lot of enmity ‘Malthusian population Trap’, which might have between them. Though China never overtly supported neutralized the economic growth. Malthus has shown Pakistan on Kashmir, its infrastructural development an inverse relation between population growth and in Pakistan’s occupied Kashmir region made the the standard of living. theory maintained that ‘as Indian government quite apprehensive. India doubts people have children, grand children and so on, they that China fortifies Pakistan’s army and Pakistan- will eventually go hungry because agricultural baked anti-Indian militant groups in the region. production just cannot keep up’. Similarly, Myanmar becomes another contested terrain between India and China. Chinese’s political Rev. Malthus had demonstrated that there support to the Burmese military junta, especially in is a hiatus between rate of food production and the the international forum like UN Security Council, rate of population growth : whereas the food selling them weapons and securing strategic access production grows in an arithmetic rate(1,2,3,4,5…), to offshore natural gas reserves rings alarm among the population grows in a geometric rate (1,2,4,8,16..) the Indian policy makers. In Sri Lanka China’s and number of people doubles in every 25 years. technical assistance in developing sea port in recent Malthus had cautioned that there would have been a times also has an adverse impact on Sino-Indian natural correction of the exponential rise of population relations. in the form of epidemic, disease, starvation or what is often called as ‘Malthusian Catastrophe’, had there Section-III been no matching effort of intentional reduction of Several methods have been conjured up to streamline fertility, either by self restraint /self discipline or the strenuous relation between India and China, but delaying of marriage etc. with no avail. Demographic indicators have always been taken as a veritable problematique. It is said Though, Malthus at the end of his career, that the standard of living is high if the population is especially on the face of criticism had revised his small and the rate of population growth is moderate; thesis saying that arithmetic and geometric rise of but the standard of living will be low if the population food and population growth was only an imagery is large and steadily increasing. This situation can be construction that might be confirmed by the overcome by two ways: either by the preventive check demographers in their respective contexts, most of like intentional reduction of fertility as the single child the demographer across the globe still considers it as policy in China; or by positive check like malnutrition, having a heuristic value. The present paper, unlike diseases and famine. Thomas Robert Malthus, the the Malthusian doomsday prediction of catastrophic famous English economist and clergyman came out impact of exponential rise of population, considers with this thesis of ‘law of nature’ way back in 1798 the combined strength of population of the two Asian in his book ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’8. giants has the potential of overcoming their bitter past of bilateral enmity. The latest the State of the World The original essay was a rebuttal to thinkers Population Report9 by United Nation Population Fund like William Godwin and the Marquis de Condorcet, (UNFPA) has mentioned that India is now the home and Malthus’s own father who had a faith in the of the world largest young population with 356 million

82 World Focus November 2017 people living in India within 10-24 years age group, that India and China house a whopping 625 million only to be followed by China with 269 million young population with huge potentials. Hence, populations. Together they constitute a whopping 625 harnessing this population with proper grooming in million young population of the world, waiting to be terms of capacity building and skill development would tapped. This figure is awe inspiring as most of the help these quarrelsome neighbours to get past their developed economies in the world have been sorry legacy of mutual distrust, and suspicion and suffering from the problem of aging of their work become a long term strategic partners of development. force population. Hence, a huge opportunity is unfolded before these two Asian giants to move ahead Notes and References: of the legacy of a bitter bilateral enmity and engage 1 Malthusian Population Trap refers to a gap between into a meaning mutually beneficial dialogue by roping the rate of growth population and the rate of food in this massive untapped work force. The integrated production. According to Malthus there is hardly any world of market has further accentuated that match between growth rate of population and the rate opportunity. Therefore, the time is ripe enough to cast of production, whereas food production grows slowly, aside those ideological baggages and to seize the the population grows in a much faster manner. Any opportunity by grooming of this workforce in terms country fall within this trap may lose its benefit of of skill development to make the 21st century a truly Asian Century. This demographic dividend can only economic growth owing to overconsumption of that remove the icy hyphen between these Asian giants by the bourgeoning population. and make them close strategic partners. 2 By enviable growth rate, we refer to consistently high growth rates of China and India. Chin’s GDP pegs V around 7%-8% per annum, whereas India has a Conclusion: persistent 6% growth rate. In the foregoing analysis, an attempt has been made 3 India and China combined houses almost one third of to present a new perspective to the chequered the total population of the world. bilateral relations between India and China. The Sino- 4 Hyphenation is a western model of foreign policy Indian relation is a perennial puzzle for the scholars making , which conjoins two countries to be treated and practitioners alike. Despite having considerable on the equal footing. complementarily between them in history, culture and 5 By panch sheel we mean the five principle of peaceful society, the historical legacy of mutual suspicion, coexistence, which constitute the bed rock of Sino- mistrust and enmity in the form of border dispute, and regional aspirations, had marred the relationship Indian bilateral relationship. 6 from time to time. Experts are literally clueless in the Rapprochement is the typical phase of Sino-Indian apparent vicissitudes of the said relationship. Several relations where both the parties restores the diplomatic possible options have been chalked out to improve ties between them. the bilateral relations between India and China, which 7 Suzerainty is a situation in which either a dominant may range from political economy to military might. region or a dominant population controls the foreign But demographic angle is largely discarded as a policy and international relations of the subservient problematique for both the countries. Drawing on the nation without totally revoking its internal autonomy. ‘Malthusian population Trap’, a group of scholars has 8 Malthus, Thomas Robert: 1978 An Essay on the cautioned as to how an enviable growth rate can be Principle of Population: AS It Affects the Future eaten up by the bludgeoning population growth in these Improvement of Society, with Remarks and two countries. Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers, London: J.Johnson in St Paul’s Church yard The present paper, however, views this 9 population growth as an advantage for these countries The State of the World Population Report 10 and arguing in favour of exploiting this demographic by United Nation Population Fund (UNFPA), The dividend for the betterment of the said relations. In Hindu: 2014 the light of the recent UNFPA report has mentioned

Manipulating Malthus 83 Indo-US Strategic Convergence and Defence Co-operation under Modi : Moving Towards Pragmatism Dr. Pitam Ghosh

India’s relations with the United States in the fundamental in nature. Notwithstanding all this, it is last decade have undergone a transformation. Ever since necessary for India to have as friendly a relationship our independence, our relationship with the US has with the US as possible. The US cannot be ignored been marked by suspicion, lack of empathy and because of its superpower status. It has to be managed differences in world view. In recent years, many in in a way that one can extract the maximum from the India have viewed with cynicism US using the excuse relationship while minimising the compromises one has of its “values” to justify its interventionist and regime to make to achieve that. The 2005 India-US nuclear change policies marked by, what is more, glaring double deal opened the doors for establishing a relationship at standards. We have been chary of excessive a much higher level than ever before. With the engagement with the US lest it acquires too many dissipation of strategic distrust as a result of the deal, leverages over our policies. The United States has the range of bilateral engagement expanded sanctioned us in critical strategic nuclear, missile and phenomenally. The nuclear deal removed the high technology sectors ever since our 1974 nuclear nonproliferation issue from distorting our bilateral test. US policies in our neighbourhood, in particular agenda with the US as well as other important members with regard to Pakistan, have damaged our security. of the international community, though US In this background, the shift towards growing mutual nonproliferation lobbies have not given up efforts to confidence, wide ranging political, economic and generate pressure on India on nuclear issues in a bid to security related engagement in recent years has been create a basis for extracting more curbs on India’s an unprecedented change. In 2010, during his India freedom to develop its nuclear weapon programme, visit, President Barrack Obama described the India- especially by tying up our programme to that of Pakistan US relationship as a defining one for the 21st century. and advocating steps to reduce nuclear dangers in South What “defining” may actually mean is difficult to define. Asia. Following the nuclear deal, sanctions on almost It could mean that the US sees India growing into a all Indian entities have been lifted and high technology major global power in the years ahead, and believes controls have been eased to a degree. The US has that the relationship forged between the oldest and the committed itself to support India’s membership of the largest democracy, between the world’s largest and four technology control regimes: the Nuclear Suppliers the third largest economy in time, with their shared Group (NSG), the Missile Technology Control Regime values of democracy and pluralism, could define how (MTCR), the Wassenaar Agreement and the Australia international relations will be played out in the 21st Group. This support is repeated in political declarations century. This would imply that India and the US together as was the case when Modi visited Washington in could determine the configuration of international September 2014 when Obama noted that India meets relations and the principles governing them and that MTCR requirements and is ready for NSG membership, they could optimally manage global commons and work but without setting any time-tables. An actual push by for the consolidation of political and human values the US in favour of India’s membership is lacking, not universally. This sounds rather grandiloquent, but such the least because, having made an exception for India rhetoric comes easily to the Americans. in the NSG, the US would be reluctant to go out of its way to press India’s case actively. India’s task will be A natural partnership would also imply that to prod the US to implement its strategic commitment there is a basic convergence in thinking and goals that at the earliest and not use it as a bargaining lever to would draw two countries together even if a gulf extract more concessions from India in non- occurred at times. In other words, it would not be proliferation areas, particular on administrative natural for them to stay apart and be distant from each arrangements for implementing the nuclear deal in full other as such differences would be bridgeable not 84 World Focus November 2017 that will give the US greater access to our nuclear plants foreign direct investment in the defence sector, over and above IAEA safeguards, and obtain Washington sees economic opportunities in deepening commercial contracts for its companies on its terms. defence ties with New Delhi. The rise of China and its The US is miffed that having done the heavy-lifting for assertive posturing in the South China Sea is another India in the Nuclear Supplier Group(NSG),its reason for the United States to expand security and companies have not procured civil nuclear projects in military relations with India. India was concerned by India because of our Nuclear Liability Act which China’s position on disputed territories and by the provides for supplier’s liability in certain circumstances. growing nexus between Beijing and Islamabad. New The US has openly lobbied for an amendment of our Delhi feels that the presence of the United States in law, and could well link its active support for India’s South Asia would help maintain the balance of power membership of the NSG to actual openings for its in its favour. The Modi government also knows it cannot companies to build nuclear power plants in India as aggressively pursue military modernisation without well as a solution to the outstanding problem of “national access to advanced US weaponry and technology. Both tracking”. During each high level visit after the nuclear the United States and India have made significant deal, the issue has been raised by the US and India has progress on the Defense Technology and Trade been obliged to show some “progress” in implementing Initiative, an undertaking aimed at reducing the barriers its commitment to acquire GE and Westinghouse to defence technology cooperation and trade. The nuclear reactors that would produce 10,000 MWs of countries are also holding talks on the supply of F-16 power. and F/A-18 fighter jets for the Indian Air Force. These defence deals would give a significant boost to the Indo-US Defence Co-operation: The Obama ‘Make in India’ program. Regime The current era of US–India relations began after the The Modi government has also pursued three Clinton administration’s containment policies failed to crucial bilateral agreements — the Logistic Exchange isolate India following its 1998 nuclear tests. India Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), the emerged from these sanctions a resurgent country under Communication and Information Security the leadership of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Memorandum (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and The United States then adopted a policy of Cooperation Agreement (BECA). The previous UPA accommodation towards India, with the two countries government opposed these three agreements as they transforming their estranged relations into a strategic argued that they would undermine India’s strategic partnership. When Modi came to power, he did not autonomy and its policy of nonalignment. But in light allow his personal differences with the United States of emerging security threats, the Modi government has to dictate bilateral ties. Instead, Modi decided to redirect agreed in principle to all three. LEMA will allow both efforts to sustain and deepen ties. This quickly became countries to access fuel and supplies from each other’s evident when Modi made a state visit to the United bases, making it easier to coordinate military activities. States in September 2014 on the invitation of President The agreement would help India in carrying out Obama. Subsequently, Obama became the first US operations in the Indian Ocean and expanding its president to be the chief guest at the Republic Day maritime reach in the Asia Pacific.CISMOA will enable Parade in New Delhi in January 2015.Defence the countries to share confidential intelligence in both cooperation has been a pillar of the two countries’ peacetime and war using advanced encryption burgeoning relationship. There is a growing sentiment technology. BECA would provide India with among US security officials and experts that, given its topographical and aeronautical data as well as products economic slowdown as well as security crises in the aiding navigation and targeting. Asia Pacific, the Middle East and other regions, it is not possible for the United States alone to ensure peace Some concerns have been raised about the and security. It needs to engage rising powers like possible downsides of signing these agreements. For India.(1) instance, CISMOA would enable the United States to As the Modi government has accelerated the listen to highly confidential defence conversations process of military modernisation, buoyed by increased within India. There are also fears that under LEMA the

Indo-US Strategic Convergence and Defence Co-operation under Modi 85 United States would pressure India into allotting portions has accelerated considerably since Obama’s visit to of its land bases for exclusive military use. It is for India last January, when he graced the Indian Republic these reasons that India has only agreed to sign these Day celebrations as the chief guest. At a political level, agreements in principle. The Modi government has asked it is clear that there have been significant improvements the United States to modify the agreements so that in the bilateral relationship. India’s security and sovereignty are not compromised. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has made it clear Defense relations have also continued their that LEMA does not mention the stationing of American steady pace. The United States has for some time been troops on Indian soil. India’s apprehension implies that, the country with which India conducts the largest while it seeks close defence ties with the United States, number of military exercises. This engagement is the Indian government does not want to unnecessarily growing in complexity and sophistication. Issues of draw itself into a tussle between the United States and co-development and co-production of military China. With the introduction of the US–India Defence equipment have also gathered some momentum, but Technology and Partnership Act March,2016 and an have seen only modest progress over the past two years. expected visit by Modi to Washington to address a joint Only a couple of low-end projects, such as the research session of the US Congress, the future of the bilateral and development of mobile electric hybrid power relationship looks bright. One hopes that this kind of sources and the next-generation protective body suits, engagement will continue, forging the way for a have been taken up, with talk continuing of moving to stronger India–US relationship.(2) other more sensitive technologies. The recent signing in principle of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum The Modi government, over the past two of Agreement (LEMOA) would allow mutual support years, has certainly scored major victories in building for refueling, supplies, and spare parts and is an positive ties between India and the United States. The important sign of both sides overcoming bureaucratic prime minister himself has taken proactive measures and other logistical hurdles in the pursuit of closer to build a rapport with important U.S. political leaders. cooperation. In this direction, the creation of the India He met Obama six times just in his first 24 months in Rapid Reaction Cell in the Pentagon, the first country- office and visited the United States three times. Such specific cell of its kind. Of course, the India-U.S. is his relationship with Obama that he inspired the leader bilateral defense relationship also depends on the sale of the most powerful country in the world to write a of military equipment. India in recent years has emerged note supporting him for Time magazine’s 100 most as one of the most important export markets for the Influential People list for the year 2015.Interactions U.S. defense industry, with defense trade volume among other leaders in India and the United States have surpassing $10 billion dollars in the past decade. In also picked up. Just over the past two years, U.S. fact, the Indian market for U.S. defense products might Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter has met India’s expand considerably as India takes a second look at Minister of Defense four times. Secretary of State John the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet after downsizing a Kerry has visited India twice and met Indian Foreign deal to buy French Rafale fighters. No numbers have Minister Sushma Swaraj several times. Several been officially mentioned yet, and the deal may take influential U.S. congressional committee members have years before producing any tangible results. Some also visited India. Starting in the early months of that conservative estimates suggest that India could be new government, Senator John McCain and three looking to purchase 100 to 150 Boeing jets. If this deal cabinet members flew to India to hold actually goes through, it has the potential to usher in a consultations about the bilateral relationship. qualitatively different relationship–one not of buyer- This followed visits by Senator Angus King, member seller, but of co-producers. The Modi government can of the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence justifiably take some credit for this change in Indian Committees, and Senator Tim Kaine, chair of the Senate thinking.(3) Foreign Relations Subcommittee on South and Central Asian Affairs. Many such high-level visits from the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Deal: United States have since continued, engaging Indian Ending a six-year old stalemate in operationalising the policymakers and leaders at a steady pace. This trend path-breaking civil nuclear agreement, India and the

86 World Focus November 2017 United State announced policy resolution on two key can go ahead. The July 2005 agreement and the issues paving the way for a nuclear trade within the separation plan of March 2006 do not cap India’s ambit of domestic laws and international obligations. strategic programme. Perhaps the political class will At the joint media interaction, President Obama said now get a better sense of the cost of the nuclear there was a “breakthrough’ in civil nuclear deal and weapons programme, since it will no longer be both sides have sorted out the two pending issues. The embedded within the civilian power programme. This US companies were concerned over the Indian nuclear could lead to a more prudent strategic posture, and liability laws that apply to the equipment suppliers in avoiding a nuclear arms race in South Asia. India does the event of an accident. They have also demanded not have mountains of plutonium, and hence what India tracking of fuel supplied by US and other countries for has kept out is perhaps consistent with its defence needs. the proposed nuclear power plants. While India will Till the deal was entered into theoretically all the facilities create an insurance pool to tackle the nuclear liability were available for India’s weapons programme. Now issue, on tracking it said the matter will be dealt with the upper limit is only 35 per cent. Access to fissile under the IAEA safeguards. Apart from the major thrust materials does not mean that India use all that for in the civil nuclear area, both Modi and Obama issued weapon-making. If a country like China, which has a 59-point statement encompassing the entire gamut rather strained ties with the US, can access civilian of relationship, decided to renew the decade-old defence nuclear technology without sacrificing its weapons framework agreement for another 10 years and within programme, then it seems odd that it is denied to India. it opened the defence technology and trade initiative. Needless to say this is in spite of India’s impeccable Both India and the US issued a Delhi declaration of record. The deal may increase India’s reliance on friendship — Shared Effort, Progress for All — in imported fuel, which could make India susceptible to keeping with national principles and committing to hold external pressure. Hence it would be in India’s interest regular summits with increased periodicity, elevate to shift to relying on thorium, which could take two or strategic dialogue, establish hotlines between the Prime three decades. Thus of now India would require a Minister and the US President and national security adequate base of heavy water and light water reactors advisers, besides cooperating to develop joint ventures to produce enough plutonium to start a series of fast on strategically significant projects. The India-US breeder reactors. If there are interruptions of fuel nuclear deal is a historic agreement that perhaps brings supplies, then India would have to take corrective India into the non-proliferation mainstream. The deal measures to deal with them. This will have to be part raised fundamental questions about the future of the of the understanding with the IAEA. non-proliferation regime. A whole debate still continues about the extent to which the deal is a judicious mix What the July 2005 agreement contemplated between India’s long-term energy and security interests was adjusting US laws to ensure ‘full’ civil nuclear and the expectation of the international community to energy cooperation and trade with India. But what we insulate as many of India’s nuclear plants from potential now see is something less than full. The Indian Prime military applications. In India there has been a strong Minister, Manmohan Singh, had consistently pointed perception in certain quarters that India is somehow out that India will not settle for anything less than “full being maneuvered into surrendering its autonomy. The civil nuclear energy cooperation”, including the right whole deal is ‘supply’ related, that is, no supply no to reprocess spent fuel and access to technology and safeguards. Hence perhaps it would not be too equipment connected to the complete nuclear fuel cycle. problematical to place some of the segregated civilian Since the Henry Hyde US-India Nuclear Cooperation nuclear facilities under perpetual safeguards. However, Act does not guarantee India these rights, the Indian as far as key strategic hubs like Trombay and Kalpakkam Government hopes that the 123 Agreement will seriously are concerned, they should be best kept off the IAEA address India’s concerns. The US has had its way on safeguards arrangement. So should be the third and the issue of “in-perpetuity” safeguards, though Indian fourth 540 MW heavy water power reactors at Tarapur. officials contend that they have grafted in an exit clause This will mean that the fast breeder development in case fuel supplies are cut off. Neither does the US programme as well as the work required for the allow its supplies to be reprocessed, nor does it allow country’s three-stage civilian nuclear power strategy the spent fuel to be sent back to the US. India does not

Indo-US Strategic Convergence and Defence Co-operation under Modi 87 want a repetition of Tarapur, being saddled with both the sides had resolved to work towards “finalising stockpiles of spent fuel, which are not only hazardous the contractual agreement by June 2017”. but also expensive to maintain. The US has made waivers to this condition for Japan, Switzerland and However, a lot of water has flown under the the European Union, and India is perhaps hoping a bridge since then. Westinghouse, which was acquired similar exception will be made in its case too. The by Japanese conglomerate Toshiba in 2007, filed for questions about sequencing each side has committed bankruptcy in March. Apprehending uncertainty, the itself to remain. The Prime Minister has categorically Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and the NPCIL assured that Indian facilities would not go under are unwilling to go ahead with any agreement with the safeguards until all US and Nuclear Suppliers Group beleaguered company till it comes out of the financial restrictions were “irreversibly” lifted. Two sequencing turmoil.The Indo-US nuclear cooperation agreement issues, as Siddharth Varadarajan observes, still remain: was signed in 2008, under which Westinghouse and one, it is not clear when the Nuclear Suppliers Group GE Hitachi were to build six power reactors each in (NSG) guidelines will be changed. Secondly, Indian Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. Initially, Westinghouse negotiators believe the safeguards agreement with the was allocated the Mithi Virdi site in Gujarat, but was IAEA should ideally be finalised after the US-India later given the Kovvada site in Srikakulam district of Nuclear Cooperation Agreement (the 123 Agreement) Andhra Pradesh. The company was to build six AP- is fully negotiated.(4) 1000 atomic reactors with a capacity of 1,208 MW each at Kovvada. The civil nuclear agreement was the Solid Foundation of Strategic Ties between the U.S. centerpiece of our transformed relationship, which and India Under President Trump: demonstrated new trust. It also created new economic The change of administration in the U.S. comes at a opportunities and expanded our option for clean energy. time when relations between Washington, D.C. and On its part, the White House separately told the New Delhi are the best they’ve been. Much progress American media that the understanding on the civil had been made during the second term of President nuclear programme resolves the US concerns on both Barrack Obama, especially since Modi took power in tracking and liability and it will be for US companies to India in May 2014. These leaders paid reciprocal state assess the market. General Electric and Westinghouse, visits and met nine times at multilateral Summits.There’s have been in the race to supply nuclear reactors to two been huge anticipation for the meeting between Indian parks allocated to the United States earlier. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald movement forward on the nuclear issue came after Trump ever since Trump’s surprise win in the specific directions from the political leadership on either presidential elections. The two leaders finally met on side, a fact confirmed by the Foreign Secretary who June,2017 to discuss strategic issues related to security said they played a key role leading to progress on this and economy. The Indo-US civil nuclear deal was front. India and the United States also issued a joint expected to figure during talks between Prime Minister strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump today, Region to support regional economic integration by but a pact between the NPCIL and Westinghouse to accelerated infrastructure connectivity, safeguard build six power reactors in Andhra Pradesh is unlikely maritime security in ensuring freedom of navigation to be signed. A host of strategic issues are expected to and overflight throughout the region, especially in the be discussed during the parleys between the leaders of South China Sea. the world’s two largest democracies, including the • The Prime Minister has also assured the nation that progress on the 2008 civil nuclear deal, according to India would insist on “full” civil nuclear cooperation, official sources here. They said a financial turmoil in including the right to access technologies related to the Westinghouse and absence of a functional reference nuclear fuel cycle, which the Senate version of the bill atomic plant were the main impediments behind the had denied; Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited’s (NPCIL) • the separation of the civilian and military nuclear unwillingness to sign the agreement with the American facilities India has undertaken to carry out; and nuclear giant. According to a joint statement by Modi • The nature of the safeguards agreement with the and the then US president Barrack Obama in 2015, IAEA: India has ruled out the possibility of US

88 World Focus November 2017 inspectors entering Indian nuclear installations (fallback conclusion of techno-commercial agreement between safeguards).Whether the deal will turn out to be a win- Westinghouse and Nuclear Power Corporation of India win situation for either side only time will tell. The Limited (NPCIL). In this context, this article maps the outcome of the deal is bound to have an immediate and trajectory of India’s nuclear industry in the aftermath long-term bearing on relations between New Delhi and of the nuclear deal, identifies the challenges posed by Washington. The outcome of the 123 negotiations the CLNDA, and discusses the broad contours of the would decide the future of the deal. On the Indian side possible way-outs being considered for addressing the this needs to be done without compromising beyond a liability issue.(5) point on our energy needs and our sovereignty. Only time will tell whether the nuclear deal represents a At the time of the signing of the Indo-U.S. nuclear paradigm shift in India-US ties or not. cooperation agreement, India promised to put in place a robust regulatory framework to enhance nuclear Evaluation of Indo-US Nuclear Deal: safety, as well as a domestic liability law to govern any The successful and timely conclusion of the Indo-US prospective purchase of reactors and components from nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008 had raised foreign as well as domestic vendors and to ensure swift enormous hopes for rapid growth of India’s nuclear compensation to victims in the rare event of a nuclear energy sector. The nuclear accord took place at a time accident. It was widely expected that India would put when the world was witnessing a renaissance in the in place a domestic nuclear liability regime nuclear power industry after the prolonged post- that legally protects both domestic and foreign Chernobyl slowdown. The ‘nuclear deal’ lifted the more suppliers in the event of an accident, and would than two decade-old embargoes on the sale of nuclear incentivise the industry’s participation in the country’s reactors and fuel for India’s nuclear programme, which planned nuclear expansion. As part of the Indo-U.S. had significantly hindered country’s nuclear power nuclear deal, India also promised to sign and ratify sector from achieving the full-blown potential. The the Convention of Supplementary Compensation clearance of this long-standing hurdle was widely (CSC), which requires the signatory state to pass a expected to unfold rapid expansion of India’s nuclear domestic liability law in conformity with a model text. energy programme. Six years on, India’s nuclear The CSC fixes “absolute” and “exclusive” liability for energy programme, however, is far from taking any the operator of a nuclear installation, thereby exempting major leap with regard to nuclear energy expansion. the suppliers from any liability. Although, India signed On the contrary, a legal impasse over suppliers’ liabilities the CSC on December 21, 2010, nearly four years have after the enactment of India’s Civil Liability for Nuclear passed, and India has not ratified it as yet. Damage Act (CLNDA), 2010, has posed a new hurdle to India’s nuclear energy expansion plans. Certain Conclusion provisions of this act have strongly deterred U.S. and The Indian foreign policy establishment can justifiably other major suppliers such as Russia and France from feel upbeat with the results of the visit. Given the entering into commercial agreements for the supply of uncertainties in the run-up to the visit, the results have nuclear reactors to India. The U.S. and India have held been most gratifying. In his op-ed in WSJ, referring to several meetings in the last few years to resolve the his statement about having overcome the “hesitations stalemate over supplier’s liability issue in a mutually of history” during his address to the US Congress a acceptable manner. With the new government taking year ago, Modi affirmed it once again and expressed office in New Delhi, the U.S. is hopeful that it can end his confidence with regard to the growing convergence the differences on the liability law with India. The between the two nations. His visit to USA has set the upcoming summit between Prime Minister Modi and stage for rapid and robust growth in the multi-faceted President Obama, scheduled for September 29-30, is ties between India and USA in the coming years. thus considered as significant for the resolution of the pending issues in the Indo-U.S. nuclear cooperation. Notes And References: (1) ”Retaining India’s Strategic Autonomy”. Indian Express. September 8, 2015. Prime Minister Modi is likely to hold discussions with (2) “India, US finalise Major Defence Partner agreement”. The Indian Express. December 9, 2016. representatives of U.S nuclear industry and to assuage (3) ”Indo-U.S. Relations: Moving Beyond the Plateau”. Foreign Policy. 30 July 2015. their concerns over the liability issue, for early (4) Harsh V. Pant,” Indo-US relations under Modi: the strategic logic underlying the embrace”, International Affairs - January 2017, Volume 93, Number 1. (5) THE PIONEER, MARCH 28 2017. Indo-US Strategic Convergence and Defence Co-operation under Modi 89 India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications Dr. Suneel Kumar

In the recent times, Asia have had become a Ha Valley to the east and India’s Sikkim state to the midpoint of the global political discourse due to India’s west. The area was a part of gorgeous past of trade military impasse with China at the Doklam Plateau. activities across the Himalayan region because it is The impasse between the Indian Army and China’s situated at the heart of Chumbi Valley that had People Liberation Army (PLA), which started on 16th historically three trading agencies –Yatung, Gyantse June, 2017, continued for 74 days and defused on and Gartok – established by the Britishers in Tibet. 28th August, 2017. The standoff between the armies India had access to the Yatung Trading agency, the of two Asian nuclear powers aroused when China closest to the Doklam region in the Chumbi Valley. It tried to alter the status quo in disputed area to achieve lost access to it after the annexation of Tibet by China. a strategic advantage with adversative security At present, the Doklam Plateau is a disputed area implications for India. The PLA soldiers arrived with between China and Bhutan, but it is strategically bulldozers and excavators and started to build a high- important for India alongwith China and Bhutan as it mountain road in a disputed area between China and provides a bigger buffer to India’s sensitive Chicken’s Bhutan, across the Indian border of Sikkim state. The Neck, or the Siliguri Corridor. The Siliguri Corridor is building of road was opposed by the Bhutan’s army an extremely narrow stretch of 24 kilometres wide and asked the Chinese soldiers to go back from the land between Nepal and Bangladesh in the Indian Bhutanese territory. state of West Bengal. It connects the central parts of India with its north-eastern states. It is located just a The PLA soldiers did not pay any heed to little over 100 kilometres from the Chumbi Valley. the objections of Bhutan’s soldiers and pushed them back. Therefore, Bhutan requested India to intervene The Siliguri Corridor is a strategic as it was also a threat to the security and strategic vulnerability of India. It is also significant for the interests of New Delhi. The Indian troops supporting Thimpu as it contains the main supply routes into the the Bhutan’s side crossed the border on 18th June, territory of Bhutan. Chumbi Valley and Siliguri were 2017 and blocked the construction work in the disputed a part of the trade route between Sikkim and Tibet area. China objected to the Indian intervention and and has a great strategic importance for New Delhi, consequently, demanded the withdrawal of Indian Thimpu and Beijing. Bhutan has made claims over troops from the disputed area. As India refused to do the Doklam Plateau since 1961 while China claims so, Beijing launched psychological war against New over the complete area within the Chumbi Valley Delhi to demoralize and pressurize it enhancing the including Doklam area. Both countries have possibility of a “little war” or local war between the conducted 24 rounds of talks to resolve the territorial two Asian neighbours. Both sides faced scuffles and disputes including Doklam area.1 Nevertheless, China tensions finally resulting into the diplomatic resolution started to construct a road from Dokola in the as the parties agreed for withdrawal of forces. While Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp at outlining geo-political significance of the disputed area, Zompelri, which is close to the Jampheri Ridge. Both, the present paper describes the China’s strategies India and Bhutan considered it a threat to the national and India’s response on the Doklam stand-off. It also security. As far as India is concerned, it supported analyses the strategic implications of the impasse. the Bhutanese claims.

Geo-Political Significance of the Doklam Plateau India-China Military Impasse The Doklam, also known as Donglang in China, is an The India-China military impasse at Doklam Plateau area with a plateau and a valley, situated between was an outcome of China’s illegal construction of a China’s (Tibet) Chumbi Valley to the north, Bhutan’s road in the disputed territory. However, India’s 90 World Focus November 2017 strongly growing strategic partnership with the US and Sri Lanka. Hence, China’s intentions to establish and Japan, Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang area and its dominance in Asia, India’s closeness with US, New Delhi’s refusal to participate in the One Belt Japan and ASEAN countries and non-participation and One Road Project (OBOR) have also contributed in the OBOR project of China had irked Beijing and in the occurrence of standoff. India’s Prime Minister therefore, by starting of construction work in the Narendra Modi had visited Washington in June, 2017, disputed area of Doklam, it showed its commitment and announced the purchase of military hardware to pursue its agenda against New Delhi, which including 22 Guardian MQ-9B unmanned aerial resulted into the military impasse at Doklam.3 vehicles. India had also participated in the 21stedition of the Malabar naval exercise with the US and Japan China’s Strategy and the Indian Response in the Bay of Bengal. Dalai Lama had visited Tawang China refused to recognize Doklam Plateau a disputed area of Arunachal Pradesh in April 2017.Beijing had territory and argued that its road construction in reacted stridently against the India’s moves to give Doklam was a ‘normal’, ‘legitimate’, ‘reasonable’ and permission to Dalai Lama for visiting Arunachal ‘lawful’ activity as Beijing has right to construct roads Pradesh. China claims parts of Arunachal Pradesh in the region. Although Bhutan had lodged its protest as “Southern Tibet”. over the construction road by PLA in the Doklam and accused China of violating the 1998 agreement Pema Khandu, Chief Minister of Arunachal on maintaining of status quo of the border area till the Pradesh had argued that Beijing has no right to final settlement of the boundary dispute, Beijing, while threaten New Delhi on Dalai Lama’s movement responding to the Bhutan’s allegations, on 30th June, within India as India shares boundary with Tibet and 2017, further asserted that Doklam is part of China’s not China. China had warned India accusing it of territory and the construction activities were occurring violating its commitment on the matter of Tibet. Beijing in the territory completely located on the Chinese side had said to take further action to safeguard territorial of the China-Bhutan traditional customary line. sovereignty and criticized the “provocative” Therefore, there is no breach of agreement or statements of Arunachal Pradesh CM Pema Khandu. damage to status quo. It had also alleged that the Dalai Lama is trying to split China and mutilating the interests of all the ethnic China, argued that Doklam has always been groups of China. India alongwith Bhutan had refused the traditional pasture for border inhabitants living in to participate in the discussions on the ‘One Belt and Yadong, Xi Zang and it has been exercising One Road’ project organized by China in Beijing in jurisdiction over this area since long past. Prior to the May 2017.2 Such incidents had piqued China and 1960s, Bhutan’s border inhabitants of Bhutan had to therefore, since then, Beijing was eager to get back take the consent of the Chinese authorities for herd at New Delhi. Besides, China wants a hierarchical in Doklam and had also to pay the grass tax to China. reordering of Asia relegating India to the secondary Beijing asserted that the Xi Zang Archives of China power status in Asia so that New Delhi may not has still retained some receipts of the grass tax paid harbour any global ambitions. by the Bhutanese. The High Commissioner of the Qing Dynasty’s Government in Xi Zang had erected Beijing has repeatedly blocked India’s bid for a landmark on the China-Bhutan traditional customary permanent membership of the UN Security Council line to the South of Doklam. The Anglo-Chinese (UNSC) and entry to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group Boundary Convention of 1890, as Beijing argued, (NSG). Time and again, China has also opposed the explicitly specifies Mount Gipmochi as the tri- India’s efforts to include Maulana Masood Azhar in confluence of China, India and Bhutan and Doklam the terror watch list of the United Nations. It has is situated on the Chinese side of the China-India and developed an “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan. China-Bhutan boundaries. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) also passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Beijing asserted that ground realities also China is also trying to create a wedge between India establish that the Doklam area belongs to China. It and its neighbours such as Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives claimed that the Chinese side has complete jurisdiction

India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications 91 over Doklam because its border troops patrol the area. pass on 23rd June, 2017, citing the reason of damaged Moreover, Chinese herdsmen graze their livestock roads due to rains in Tibet.9 Moreover, on 29th June, and therefore, numerous facilities for production and 2017, it tested a 35 tonne military tank in Tibet near living have been constructed in the area. Beijing the Indian border. Further, PLA conducted live fire reiterated that Bhutan recognizes this area as the drills in Tibet, near the Indian border in Arunachal territory of China. It said that irrespective of the Pradesh. Practice for the fast movement of armed absence of its diplomatic ties with Bhutan, it shares troops and to destroy enemy aircraft. Reportedly, it traditional friendly relations with Thimpu. Furthermore, moved huge quantity of military equipment and it was also argued that although China did never act military personnel to Tibet. Amidst, the persisting like a bully with Bhutan, yet it is committed to Doklam impasse, China, reportedly, conducted a safeguard its own territorial sovereignty.4 military drill in the western part of the country.10 The military exercises of PLA were in way conducted to China alleged India to trespass on the Chinese send a message to New Delhi that China can broaden territory and obstruct the normal construction work. a possible area of conflict beyond the existing area The cause of military impasse at Doklam, as Beijing of standoff by including the Arunachal Pradesh. argued, was “illegal entry” of Indian border troops into the territory of China by crossing the defined The meeting, that was to be held between boundary recognized by the Indian side.”5 China said Premier Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi on the side- that it has an open line of diplomatic communication lines of the G-20 submit in Hamburg, Germany, was with India. But, the pull back of the Indian army to also called off by Beijing arguing that the atmosphere the Indian territory is the precondition for any was not right for such bilateral interaction between meaningful dialogue between Beijing and New Delhi the leadership of two countries. China argued on 12th to settle the military impasse in Doklam Plateau. China July, 2017 that Doklam impasse is different from other alleged that India has been building up troops along abrasions. They had occurred in the undefined parts its side of the border and demanded an immediate of India-China boundary, but it has occurred in the withdrawal of the Indian troops from the Doklam ‘defined’ and ‘indisputable’ territory of China. Foreign Plateau.6 Beijing threatened India by saying that its Minister of China, Wang Yi, blamed India for army has exercised utmost restraint, but “restraint triggering the military standoff and called for unilateral has a bottom line”. It emphasized that Beijing has withdrawal from Doklam. President of China Xi confidence, determination and military capability to Jinping, on 30th July, 2017 declared that PLA is defend its sovereignty, security and development confident to defeat “all invading armies” and interests. Apart from verbal warnings, its military “safeguard national sovereignty.” Beijing refused to organized live fire drills near the disputed area of accept New Delhi’s suggestion for a simultaneous Doklam. withdrawal of forces to end the impasse and argued that India has many tri-junctions and if China would Further, it continued to threaten India for war. accept India’s argument regarding its involvement in It said that Beijing is not interested to resolve the Doklam issue, Beijing can also enter the Kalapani matter through military means however, if good region between China, India and Nepal or even into manners would not work, it may be forced to rethink the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan.11 over its approach.7 In its bellicose editorial, the Global Times indicated that if India would not withdraw its China asserted on 2nd August, 2017 that troops military conflict would escalate. It boasts boundaries of India and China in Sikkim sector had China’s military prowess and its ability to bring more been delimited by the Convention of 1890 and both armed forces to area of dispute due to its greater sides are exercising their sovereignty over its side of mobility and logistics capability.8 China reminded India boundary without any dispute. Argument was also of its defeat in Sino-Indian War of 1962 and, hence, made by the Beijing that a boundary established by a suggested New Delhi to learn the lessons from the convention is under the particular protection of past. China also denied entry to the Indian pilgrims to international law and hence, India “has no right to visit the holy site Kailash Mansarovar via Nathu La unilaterally alter the delimited boundary….”12 It,

92 World Focus November 2017 further, claimed that India had decreased the number capable of thwarting any challenge to its security.”15 of its troops in Doklam from 400 to 40 military Indian army foiled China’s infiltration attempts, on personnel. In brief, China claimed the Doklam area the same day, in the Ladakh region of Jammu and as an indisputable part of its defined territory. It made Kashmir in which, both, sides pelted stones at each allegations against India for triggering the impasse other leading to the injury of some soldiers. The and violations of its sovereignty and international law. Government of India had confirmed the skirmish. It used pressure tactics by doing the military exercises Indian Army Chief, General Vipin Rawat had also near the Indian border, giving the threat of war and said that India is ready for a two-front war with China suggesting to learn from the lessons from Sino-Indian and Pakistan while tackling the internal security War of 1962. China even actively briefed the other threats.16 countries on India’s violation of China’s territorial sovereignty but it did not receive the expected Bhutan and Doklam Impasse response from any country except from Pakistan.13 Bhutan was a direct party to dispute as the China Thus, China’s strategy was comprised of allegations, was constructing road in its territory disputed with threats, warnings and provocative military deployment Beijing. It was Bhutan’s army that first attempted to to demoralize New Delhi and pressurize it to withdraw halt the Chinese constructed work unsuccessfully and, its forces from the site of impasse. then, requested India to stop China from doing the same to the China. Bhutan lodged its protest, through India, on the other hand, tried to resolve the its embassy in New Delhi, on 20thJune and 29th June, impasse diplomatically. But at the same time, it 2017, over the construction road by PLA in the showed its determination to defend itself from any Doklam and accused China of violating the 1998 aggression. New Delhi argued that its military impasse agreement on maintaining of status quo of the border with China had started in Doklam as China attempted area till the final settlement of the boundary dispute. to build a road in the strategically important area of Bhutan’s Ambassador in New Delhi Major-General Doklam to link to India(Sikkim)-Bhutan-China(Tibet) V. Namgyal refuted the Beijing’s contention that it tri-junction so that Beijing may take a major military was constructing a road at Doklam in an “indisputable advantage over India. The Indian army blocked part of Chinese territory.17 As tension increased, construction of the road by China in Doklam. India Thimpu put its border on high alert and tighten the did not succumb to the Chinese pressure and threats border security. Nevertheless, itexpected peaceful of war. Foreign Secretary of India, S. Jaishankar resolution of standoff and issued a demarche on 5th stated, on 11th July, 2017 that India has the capacity July, 2017, to the Chinese envoy in New Delhi asking and capability to knob the Doklam standoff. Foreign Beijing to restore status quo in the Doklam area where Minister of India, Sushma Swaraj, on 19th July, 2017 PLA tried to unilaterally build a road towards Army informed the Rajya Sabha that China’s attempt to camp of Bhutan in Zomplri area. Bhutan also unilateral change of status quo of tri-junction between welcomed the disengagement of Indian and Chinese China, India and Bhutan, poses a challenge to India’s troops in Doklam Plateau. security. India rejected Beijing’s claim that New Delhi had decreased the number of its troops deployed at International Community and Doklam Standoff Doklam. When China started to make the threats of The International community especially countries in war, India’s Defence Minister Arun Jaitley assured South Asia, East Asia and South East Asia kept a the Rajya Sabha that the India’s armed forces are close eye on the Doklam impasse between China strong and capable enough to face any threat to its and India. In South Asia, Nepal that shares borders national security. with both India and China, expressed its neutrality on the Doklam impasse and urged for a diplomatic and Arun Jaitley also retaliated that “If they peaceful solution to the impasse. India’s hostile (China) are trying to remind us, the situation in 1962 neighbour, Pakistan, as expected, supported its “iron was different and India of 2017 is different.”14 Prime brother” China. When the Chinese Vice Premier, Minister of India on 15thAugust, 2017 in his Wang Yang visited Islamabad, on the occasion of the Independence Day speech asserted that “India is 70thanniversary of Pakistan’s Independence, Pakistan

India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications 93 backed the positions of China on the Doklam issue Eurasian landmass and rim land, the Doklam impasse and South China Sea (SCS). President of Pakistan created a spill over effect in China’s neighbourhood Mamnoon Hussain expressed apprehension over “the in the South East Asia. China’s neighbours had been Indian incursions into the Chinese territory” while worried about the assertive behaviour of Beijing fully supporting the demeanour of China on the issue. which was accelerating conflict further between the He appreciated Beijing’s method of management of two Asian nuclear powers. The ASEAN regards a the Doklam issue and echoed its support to Beijing robust Indian presence in the region as a deterrent on the issues of Tibet, Sinkiang and South China Sea.18 against China. In recent times, Beijing has adopted more assertive approach to handling territorial disputes India got the diplomatic support from some with its neighbour. It was behaving on the similar influential countries. The US and Britain backed the pattern in case of the Doklam issue.21 Hence, the Indian stand to resolve the impasse through dialogue ASEAN countries especially Thailand saw the benefit when Beijing had pre-conditioned the dialogue with of China being challenged in the South Asia. The the prior withdrawal of Indian troops from the area ASEAN countries, wary of China’s growing of impasse. The US stated that China had taken assertiveness, has been seeing the Doklam issue as certain provocative steps in the disputed area which “a boon” as any deterrence on the aggressive were responsible for the emergence of impasse on behaviour of China yields geo-political benefits to the Doklam plateau. The Britain had explicitly stated South-East Asia. that Doklam, a bilateral dispute between India and China and, thus needed to be resolved through Cessation of India-China Military Impasse dialogue.19 Most of the European countries adopted Although the military impasse between India and “wait and watch” approach over the Doklam impasse. China had raised the concerns in both the countries In East Asia, Japan backed India’s position on the of an all-out military conflict, yet it was terminated Doklam impasse without any abstruseness. on 28thAugust, 2017 as both sides agreed to withdraw their armies to pre-impasse positions. India’s Ministry Japan’s Ambassador to India, Kenji for External Affairs (MEA) stated on 28th August, Hiramatsu, recognized Doklam as disputed area 2017 that “expeditious disengagement of border between China and Bhutan, while countering Beijing’s personnel of India and China at the face-off site at assertion that the impasse had been occurring in Doklam …has been completed.22 Chinese Foreign Chinese territory. Chinese Foreign Ministry Minister Wang Yi also declared that the “border face spokesperson Hua Chunying asserted that the off caused by Indian trespassing has been settled” Japanese Ambassador to India should not to as “India has withdrew its troops” from the area. haphazardly make comments before clarifying Wang Yi hoped from the Indian side to “learn lessons” relevant facts. Japan extended its wholehearted from the bilateral military impasse in Doklam and support to India after the Global Times, a China daily, prevention of such episodes in future. China further in its editorial, warned New Delhi not to bank on the expected from India to abide by the historical “illusory” support of the US and Japan. Japan’s conventions on the border and the basic principles of support to India on the Doklam impasse was not a international law, and work together with China to surprise, as Tokyo had also asked New Delhi in maintain the peace and tranquillity of the border areas January 2014 to furnace a united opposition to foil on the basis of mutually respecting the territorial the expansionist moves of China in East China Sea sovereignty of each other. The China Foreign Ministry and the Himalayas when Beijing had unilaterally Spokesperson Hua Chunying stated that Chinese moved to change status quo in the East China Sea.20 border troops will continue to patrol and garrison the Doklam area and exercise its sovereignty over the The Doklam standoff, in the Asia-Pacific, had area.23 been conflated with regional contests between China and the Association of South East Asian Nations The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China on 3rd (ASEAN), including the SCS. Since China is and 4th September, 2017 along with advantageous embroiled in multiple territorial disputes across the position of the Indian army vis-à-vis the Chinese army

94 World Focus November 2017 led to cessation of the military standoff between India had not been a direct part to territorial disputed Beijing and New Delhi on 28th August, 2017 through and it was between China and Bhutan, Beijing had diplomatic means. Amidst the impasse with India, the presumed that it would be able to change the status possibility of the cancellation or India’s non- quo in the disputed area irrespective of the objections participation in the BRICS Summit was also growing. of Thimpu because of its military might. Beijing had China wished to project its image as a responsible also done so with the weak Bhutan in the past. Even world leader. Without having a satisfactory solution global powers like the US and the ASEAN countries of the Doklam dispute, the possibility of India’s had failed to stop construction of artificial islands and absence from the Summit was increasing which may militarization of the South China Sea by China. Hence, have been a huge blow to China’s prestige as the to build a road in Doklam area was not a difficult Summit would have had to be cancelled. Although task for Beijing. China did not accept this fact explicitly but said that peaceful resolution of the Doklam dispute through China did not calculated India’s politico- the diplomatic channels serves the interests of all military relationship with Bhutan and its determination relevant parties. to ensure its own national security and protect strategic interests in the area of dispute. When China Beijing argued that it has shown the sincerity launched psychological warfare through its media such and responsible attitude of China as a major power.24 as Global Times, Xinhua News Agency, China Daily Besides, India’s position in Doklam also pressed China and others, the spokespersons of the China’s Foreign to negotiate to end the standoff. The India army had, and Defence Ministries used offensive language reportedly, encircled the entire area of Doklam having against India to threaten, demoralize and pressurize provisions to neutralise the Chinese forces. The it to get the desired results. They directly threatened location was advantageous to India. It has capability India either to withdraw its troops from the disputed to mobilize forces to Sikkim faster than China. area or to face the consequences far worse than the Moreover, the Indian forces had ‘strategically defeat of 1962. Nevertheless, India gave a ‘measured’ surrounded’ the area.25 Hence, strategically and ‘balanced’ response by showing its determination disadvantageous positions of China also contributed to resolve the impasse through dialogue and by not to the diplomatic solution of the impasse. India’s bothering about the psychological warfare launched military advantage in the Sikkim sector would have against it by China. made escalation of the conflict costly for China. Thus, the BRICS Submit, India’s advantageous position in India had been strategically in advantageous the disputed area and better mobilization capability position in Doklam area as compared to China as it of its forces to Sikkim led to the conclusion of Doklam had occupied the heights. Even, in many other impasse. segments of the border, India has had the advantageous strategic position. In such situation, Strategic Implications China was aware of the fact that it cannot be decisive The India-China bilateral military impasse at Doklam winner in war. Besides, any attempt to resolve the and its subsequent cessation has wider strategic issue through military means would have dented its implications for India and other countries especially argument of “peaceful rise. Hence, the resolution to Japan and ASEAN countries. Moreover, it has military impasse came through dialogue and diplomacy conveyed some strong and clear cut massage to China and not through the military means which brought a and other countries vis-à-vis India. moral, strategic and diplomatic victory to India. India succeeded to check the Chinese unilateralism to alter First, cessation of impasse through dialogue the status quo in the disputed area by exploiting the brought a moral, strategic and diplomatic victory for weak military position of Bhutan.26 New Delhi vis-à-vis Beijing. It revealed the effectiveness of diplomatic prowess of India. Beijing Second, the impasse time again exposed the had never expected such a strong response on the China’s expansionist and unilateral designs in its issue and “a resolute pushback” from India. Since neighbourhood and the Asian continent as well. Its

India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications 95 psychological warfare against India on the impasse and Thimpu, India’s stand has enhanced its stature dented its image at international level. 27 Third, the as a reliable partner in its neighbourhood and extended impasse deteriorated the bilateral relations of India neighbourhood. The impasse reflected the India’s and China. China had never expected India’s “stamina, resilience and wherewithal” to stand up for intervention to protect the interests of its small the protection of its own and partners’ strategic neighbours like Bhutan, while putting at risks its interests. It has boosted the morale of ASEAN growing relationship with China. Both countries can countries, especially South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, have absolute gains in the bilateral economic and Indonesia and Philippines, who are facing the Chinese commercial cooperation if China reduces or removes threat, to stand up against the China’s assertive its non-tariff barriers against Indian products. The behaviour and unilateralism on the vital issues related impasse was not good for the rapid growth of bilateral to their territorial sovereignty and integrity. India has commercial relationship. India has already a trade been able to establish its credibility among its partners deficit with China more than 50 percent its global in its neighbourhood and in the ASEAN countries trade deficit. Although, India has welcomed the where it positions itself as a major player and “net Chinese business and industry but China has not security provider.” 31 reciprocated in the same way for Indian business and Industry.28 Fourth, India established itself as a Conclusion “responsible, decisive and reliable actor” in the To conclude, the military impasse was a result of international relations. China’s hegemonic and expansionist designs in Asia. China has territorial disputes with India. In recent New Delhi adopted a mature and decisive times, has seen uncomfortable with strongly emerging approach to resolve the standoff when Beijing had strategic partnership of India with US and Japan. Its launched psychosocial warfare against India by ambitions to reorder Asia hierarchically, while distorting the facts and threatening them of more relegating position of India and Japan, is leading to its serious consequences than that of 1962. China was unilateral attempts to alter the status quo in the also compelled to adopt diplomatic approach vis-a- disputed territorial and maritime boundaries in South vis India. Otherwise, Beijing has had been achieving Asia, South East Asia and South China Sea. It has a its ends through its cheque book diplomacy or routine habit of incursions in the internationally threatening its adversaries. However, such strategies disputed area. In 2016, around 250 transgressions of China did not succeed via-a-vis India as New Delhi were done by China in Ladakh and Arunachal did not succumb to its vicious propaganda and threat Pradesh. Even in 2017 just within 45 days, more than of war. China, in real sense learnt a lesson about 120 Chinese transgressions had been reported India’s diplomacy, strategy and military capability.29 primarily in these areas.32 By entering and starting Fifth, India’s stand, in the impasse, has strengthened the construction of a road in Doklam, China was the bilateral relationship between New Delhi and asserting itself in an area that had not been prone to Thimpu. transgressions earlier.

The results of Sino-Indian war of 1962 and China made bogus contentions that India had India-Pakistan War of 1971, in which China had entered to Chinese territory since the Doklam area supported Pakistan had created apprehensions in the has been a part of the 24 rounds of talks between power corridors of Bhutan about the military capability China and Bhutan on the border disputes. Although of India. Moreover, Beijing has, since long, made Beijing rejects colonial treaties especially in case of unsuccessful attempts to create a fissure between the McMohan Line, and does not respect the New Delhi and Thimpu by offering various incentives international law for instance in South China Sea, yet to Bhutan. India’s intervention in Doklam area was it found great virtue in the colonial era’s treaty held on the request on its friend Bhutan. Thus, this between British India and China. Irrespective of the has added more positive energy to the bilateral fact that Sikkim and Bhutan were not the parties to relationship between two traditional friends. 30 Sixth, the historical treaty, Beijing emphasized that the apart from the strengthening ties between New Delhi Convention on Sikkim-Tibet border also extends to

96 World Focus November 2017 Bhutan too. India used its diplomatic channels to available at http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ resolve the Doklam and did succumb to the China’s doklam-crisis-is-a-reflection-of-chinas-expansionist-tendencies/ printarticle/60009880.cms pressure tactics and threats of war. The impasse was 14.KJM Varma, “China dismisses Arun Jaitley’s remarks over 1962 a difficult challenge to India’s foreign policy which conflict”, The Wire, July 03, 2017 available at http://the wire.in/ New Delhi faced successfully. It tested its political 154035/china-dismisses-arm-jaitleys-remarks-1962-conflcit/. 15.Saubhadra Chatterji, “India capable of taking any security determination, prowess of its diplomacy and also its challenges says PM Modi in Independence Speech”, Hindustan commitment and sincerity to protect the interests of Times, August 17, 2017. partners. The successful handling of impasse has 16.Josy Joseph, “The lowdown on the border standoff with China”, The Hindu, July 01, 2017 available at http://www.thehindu.com/ boosted India’s morale and also established that New news/international/the-lowdown-on-the-border-standoff-with- Delhi has the ability and capability to hold its own china/article19194291.ece and; Atul Aneja and Josy Joseph, “Rawat against the strongest adversary India. in Sikkim as demands troops withdrawal”, The Hindu, June, 29, 2017 available at http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/Sikkim- standoff-china-asks-army-chief-to-stop-clamouring-for-war/ References article 19180321.ece. 1.Aadil Brar, “The Hidden History Behind the Doklam Standoff: 17.Suhani Haider, “In a rebuff, Bhutan refutes China’s claims on Superhighways of Tibetan Trade”, The Diplomat, August 12, 2017 Doko La road construction”, The Hindu, June 28, 2017 available available at http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/the-hidden-history- at http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-a-rebuff-bhutan- behind-the-doklam-standoff-superhighways-of-tibetan-trade/. refutes-chinas-claims-on-doko-la-construction/article19162495. 2.Syed Ata Hasnain, “Doklam Standoff: The Real Reasons And ece. How Far Can It Be Taken”, Swarajya, July 27, 2017 available at 18.Atul Aneja, “Doklam crisis echoes loudly in South and South- https://swarajyamag.com/defence/doklam-standoff-the-real- East Asia”, The Hindu, August 18, 2017 available at http:// reasons-and-how-far-can-it-be-taken and; Vijaita Singh, “Beijing www.thehindu.com/news/international/ dokllam-crisis-echoes- trying to assert itself”, The Hindu, June 28, 2017, available at loudly-in-south-and-south-east-asi/article19518534.ece. http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/beijing-triying- 19.Ibid. to-assert-itself/article19157728.ece. 20.Ibid and; Prabhash K. Dutta, “Why Japan lent support to India 3.Rupakjyoti Borah, “How India Should Respond to the Doklam against China over Doklam standoff”, India Today, August 18, Standoff”, JapanForward, July 13, 2017 available at https://japan- 2017. forward.com/how-india-should-respond-to-the-doklam-standoff/. 21.Ibid. 4.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 22.Ministry of External Affairs(India), “Press Statement on Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang’s Regular Press Doklam disengagement understanding”, August 28, 2017 available Conference on June 30, 2017 available at http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ at http://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/28893/press+ mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/ statement+on+doklam+disengagement+understanding. t1474637.shtml and; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s 23.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Republic of China, “The Facts and China’s Position Concerning Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press the Indian Border Troops’ Crossing of the China-India Boundary Conference on August 28, 2017 http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/fa_eng/ in the Sikkim Sector into the Chinese Territory”, August 02, 2017 xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1487932.shtml available at https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3911782- and; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, The-Facts-and-China-s-Position-Concerning-the.html “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press 5.Ibid. Conference on August 29, 2017" available at http:// 6.Ibid. www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/ 7.Ibid. 2511_665403/t1488261.shtml 8.Keith Jones, “China-India border impasse enters sixth week”, 24.Ibid. World Socialist Web Site, July 22, 2017 available at http:// 25.Sibal, n.14. www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/07/22/chin-j22.html?view=print. 26.Sajjanhar, Ashok(2017), “The Doklam risis ends: A diplomatic 9.Dipankar Peri and Josy Joseph, “China may be giving a diplomatic victory for India”, Raisina Debates, August 30, 2017 available at message via tri-junction”, The Hindu, June 28, 2017 available at http://www/orfonline.org/expert-speaks/the-doklam-crisis-ends-a- http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/china-may-be-giving-a- diplomatic-victory-for-india/ and; Harsh V Pant, “India’s Defiance diplomatic-massage-via-tri-junction/article19165883.ece. At Doklam Shows Asia’s Future Will Not Be Unipolar Built Around 10.Atul Aneja, “China holds live-fire drills opposite Arunachal China”, SWARAJAYA, September 05, 2017 available at https:// amid border standoff”, The Hindu, July 17, 2017 and; James swarajyamag.com/magazine/indias-defiance-at-doklam-shows- Griffiths, “India, China agree to ‘expeditious disengagement’ of asias-future-will-not-be-unipolar-built-around-china Doklam border dispute”, CNN, August 29, 2017. 27.Ibid. 11.Dev Goswami, “What if we enter Kashmir? China continues to 28.Ibid and; Sandeep Bharwaj, “Doklam may bring Bhutan closer needle India on Doklam Border standoff”, Indiatoday.in, August to India”, Livemint, August 09, 2017. 9, 2017, available at inditoday.intoday.in/story/what-if-we-enter- 29.Ibid. kashmir-china-needles-india-on-doklam-standoff/1/1021874.html 30.Ibid. 12.“The Facts and China’s Position Concerning the Indian Border 31.Ibid. Troops’ Crossing of the China-India Boundary in the Sikkim Sector 32.Vijaita Singh, “Beijing trying to assert itself”, The Hindu, June into the Chinese Territory”, August 02, 2017, n. 4. 28, 2017. 13.Kanwal Sibal, “View: Doklam crisis is a reflection of China’s expansionist tendencies”, The Economic Times, August 11, 2017

India-China Military Impasse at Doklam Plateau and Its Strategic Implications 97 Revisiting Post-Cold Era: New Delhi-Washington Partnership in Donald Trump’s Regime Dr. Debasish Nandy

Introduction relations with India. Third, India’s performance in Indo-US relations have witnessed many ups and IT is well known to the world community. The USA downs in the Cold war period. The post-Cold War had shown, therefore, its interest in this respective bilateral relationship got new shape with a realist area and invested a huge amount of money. approach. There has been a basic change of nature of India’s foreign policy in the post-Cold War era. Reasons of Reciprocal Partnership in the Post- The paradigm shift from idealism to realism was Cold-War Era basically a trial to take an entry in to the US led In early 1990s India had to engage itself in the first unipolar world. The reciprocal relationship between Gulf War crisis. The convergence of three distinct New Delhi and Washington has brought about a new forces caused this crisis. First, India had badly structure in India’s foreign policy’s outlook. The post depleted its foreign exchange reserves purchasing oil Cold War relations reflect positive engagements. on the global spot market prior to the outbreak of the During the Cold War period India’s relations with the war. Second, the hostilities forced India to repatriate, US and the erstwhile Soviet Union were viewed in a at short notice, over 100,000 expatriate workers from zero-sum context. the Persian Gulf region. Their return closed an important source of foreign exchange. Third, shortly The US foreign policy vis-à-vis South Asia after the War’s end, a series of loan payments to had a “tilt” towards Pakistan as the US viewed India multilateral banks came due. The combination of these as too closely allied with its Cold War adversary, the three factors sent the Indian exchequer into a tail Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War and spin. Due to Persian Gulf War, a major financial and disintegration of Soviet Union have collectively structural weakness of Indian economy had come to brought a change in Indian outlook towards the US. the surface. To recover this crisis, in the early 1990’s, There was an uncertainty to get diplomatic and Indian Prime Minister Narashima Rao and Finance technological support from Russia .That is why India Minister Manmohan Singh were finding some short- was tilted towards the US. In 1991, a coalition term solution. They decided to bring some government was formed under the leadership of P.V fundamental changes in India’s economy. Indian Narashima Rao. Since then India has opened up its government adopted some new approaches. Key market for foreign direct investment (FDI), i.e., for aspects of this approach included adopting a structural MNCs. adjustment regime, reducing tariffs and agricultural subsidies, loosening industrial regulations, and paring There was no alternative for India .The US’s down India’s massive Public sector. India’s new intention over India primarily started with some market-oriented approach has helped her economic mistrust and suspicion. But some years later, US had growth. Adopting liberal economic policy, New Delhi realized that India is a faithful as well as a peaceful was able to make a good diplomatic relations with country which could be a partner in considering Washington. democratic values and liberal ideological point of views. Second, India’s huge and promising market Several Issues of Irritations was responsible for the bilateral diplomatic relations. The new circumstance of a changed geopolitical As the foreign policy of one country is determined context following the end of the Cold War was by its national interests, so, in case of the US that perhaps more propitious for an improved relationship. was same. US had been attracted by India’s growing India sought through its strategy of constructive market, so it was interested for making friendly engagement to improve relations so as to build its

98 World Focus November 2017 capabilities. President George Bush (Sr.) Sought USA to discuss on many things. This is the first official precisely to contain India’s capabilities and, more tour of an Indian representative to USA after Donald critically, to divest it of its nuclear option. This was Trump’s came to power as the President of the USA. no recipe for success in building fruitful relations. This time is too vital for the future of Indo-US Initially, India’s relation with Clinton administration relations. Before election Mr. Trump announced that got off to a bad start on the non proliferation and after becoming the President of the USA he would Kashmir issues. Though Clinton administration sought recruit American nationals in IT sector in Lieu of to increased interaction with India, yet it also outsiders. Indian IT experts have had a very good successfully persuaded France to stop supplying demand in USA. Actually, over the years American nuclear fuel for the commercial reactor at Tarapur. Silicon Valley is dominated by Indians. In terms of Actual motive of US was to resist India from remittance it has a significant role in Indian economy. developing and making the missiles. But India did not This is still a tension area for India. Trump’s policy to stop its missile program and tested its Intermediate towards migrants is quite different from the formers. Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) ‘Agni’ in January He wants to reduce the number of external workers 1994. Actually initial motives of Clinton administration in USA. All of us know about the American current towards India were to give a threat as a Super Power economic status. After 9/ 11 incident it has to gone and the U.S.A, desiring as a ‘colony’ to treat India through tremendous financial recess. The problem like Pakistan. But Washington was lately able to of unemployment was started from Barak Osama’s understand that India’s position was not the same as tenure. A debate has been raised in India, whether Pakistan’. Its manpower, technology, Science, American newly elected President Donald Trump resources, market and economy, military sides are would continue friendly relations with India or not. more powerful than Pakistan’s. But, during the second term of Clinton administration, its approach towards Bilateral Economic Ties India had been changing perceptibly. India’s relations with the USA in economic sphere are very impressive. The economic interdependence There was a wide difference between India between the two has a 26 years old history. American and the United States regarding nuclear power issue. newly elected President Mr. Donald Trump is aware India did not sign on NPT. To India, this treaty was about it. Before and after becoming the President of discriminatory and not a non-proliferation treaty but the USA he announced to reduce the outsourcing. In a measured design to disarm the unarmed. The US international trading policy, it may introduce some new had a strong objection against India .However; India features. Regarding foreign aid, it decided to take had successfully resisted the pressure from restrictive steps. To revive the country’s economy Washington. Again in 1996 when the question of Trump is going to adopt some revolutionary economic approval of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) policies in order to revive domestic economy. arose, India voted against it on the ground that it would sign the treaty only after the Nuclear Five had agreed In 1991, the year before India launched its on a timetable for a total removal of nuclear weapons. reforms, U.S. Private Sector investment in India was The treaty, according to India, was defective in so a minuscule $19 million. The removal of many - but far as it did not have a fixed deadline for the elimination far from all administrative restrictions on foreign of all nuclear weapons. In spite of America’s request, investment spurned a major increase. Investment by India did not sign on this treaty. Due to this, Indo-US U.S. companies rose to $ 500 million a year by the relations got setback. mid 1990s but has since declined. Though the Trade between the United States and India was relatively After the assassination of Srinibas, an Indian small, it has risen sharply over the years. In terms of origin IT professional in the USA on 22nd February India’s major trading partner the USA continues to 2017, Indo-US relations got setback. Within ten days lead. However, India’s share in US trade is 24th in interval another two of Indian origin have been US export and eighteenth in US imports. attacked in USA. In between two incidents India’s secretary of External Affairs Mr. S. Jaysankar visited

Revisiting Post-Cold Era: New Delhi-Washington Partnership in Donald Trump’s Regime 99 Improvement of relations between the USA 2000 to $47.2 billion in the year 2016 (CAGR of and India were not that easy as many observers had 13.8%). Of this, India’s exports of services to the felt. Some basic issues between the two countries U.S. were valued at $26.8 billion and India’s imports still remain unresolved. The USA pressurized India of services from US were valued at $20.3 billion. to agree to certain things which were against the Trade in Services during the period Jan. June 2017 latter’s national interest and hence unacceptable. was $25.71 billion as compared to $22.71billion, which From a modest $5.6 billion in 1990 the bilateral trade is an increase of 13.2%. in merchandise goods has been increased to $66.9 billion in 2014 representing an impressive 1094.6% Energy Ties growth in a span of 24 years. India’s merchandise India has required huge quantity of crude oil and gas exports to the US grew by 3.37% from $6.72 billion for mitigating its energy demands. India is generically during the month of February, 2014 to $ 6.94 billion poor given this enormous population but consumes during the month of February 2015. U.S exports of only 4 per cent of its energy. The Chairman of Indian merchandise to India grew by 8.75% from $ 2.95 Atomic Energy Commission estimates that if India billion during the month of February 2014 to $3.21 can’t import fuel or reactors under the Indo-US billion during the month of February, 2015. India-US nuclear deal, it would have to import 1.6 billion tones bilateral merchandise trade during month of February, of imported coal per year by 2050. India’s growing 2015 was $10.15 billion. Indian rime Minister Narendra energy demands has led to searching the alternative Modi’s US visit is significant for many reasons .During source. his visit Modi has discussed on various issues with his American counterpart President Obama as The India-U.S dialogue on civil nuclear defense, security, economic, technological and so on. energy has emerged as a vital area of focus for India’s Modi and Obama met for the first time ever on energy security. Through this treaty the US September 30, 2014 in Washington. administration recognized India as a potential nuclear power. The Indo-US nuke deal finally separated the Rapidly expanding trade and commercial civilian from military reactors. From American side linkages between India and U.S. form an important this deal was important. The non-governmental component of the multi-faceted partnership between suppliers of uranium and reactor makers of US will the two countries. Total bilateral trade (goods and be benefited by this treaty. It was passed in Indian services) between India and US increased at a CAGR parliament. However, finally this treaty was concluded of 11.6% from $20 billion in the year 2000 to over in 2008. CPI (M) had vehemently criticized the Indo- $114.9 billion in the year 2016. In this period, the US civil nuclear deal. BJP was also very much critical growth in bilateral trade was accelerated by services about this treaty. Regarding this treaty strong trade, which grew at a CAGR of 13.8%. Goods trade opposition was raised from China and Pakistan. In grew at a CAGR of 10.4%. During the year 2016, January 2015, during the visit of the US president goods trade contributed to 59% and trade in services Barack Obama to India a latest development took contributed to 41% of the total India-US bilateral trade place regarding civil nuclear deal. The civil nuclear of $ 114.9 billion. Good services have been increased liability problem is similarly thorny; a contact group between the two countries rapidly. Starting from a formed after the September leaders’ summit is modest $ 14 Billion in 2000, the bilateral trade in goods reportedly making steady progress, but there are no has increased to $67.8 billion in 2016 (CAGR of easy workarounds without legislative revisions to Civil 10.4%), making U.S. our second largest trading Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (White, 2015:27) partner. Of this, India exported $46.09 billion to US and imported $21.7 billion from US. Trade in goods After negotiations with American agencies during the period Jan – July 2017 was $42.15 billion India ultimately agreed to take responsibilities as compared to $38.07 billion during the period Jan – insurance of nuclear plants. It is 27huge amount of July 2016, which is an increase of 10.7%. Bilateral insurance. The treaty has been concluded almost one trade in services has grown at a very fast pace since decade ago, but, no project has been completed yet. the year 2000, increasing from a mere $6 Billion in Donald Trump’s view on nuke deal is not clear. Indian experts are optimistic about Trump as he will abide 100 World Focus November 2017 the rules of civil nuke deal. At this moment American evidence to declare Pakistan as a terrorist country. nuclear fuel supplying companies are suffering from The U.S.A. declared Pakistan responsible for tremendous financial crisis. So it is an opportunity to international terrorism. The USA further declared that them deal with India to revitalize their business (https:/ Pakistan was involved in anti-Indian activities. /www.indianembassy.org/pages.php?id=42). Needless to say, it was a great diplomatic gain for Collective Fight against the International India. However, New Delhi’s offer of military facilities Terrorism to the US during the Afghan Campaign was not that After 9/11, counter-terrorism has been a new field of crucial for the operation, mainly because India did strategic co-operation for U.S. and India. In a related not share any border with Afghanistan. Nonetheless; development, Pakistan turns out to be less of an it was significant that such an offer was never made. ‘obstacle’ for the US–India framework of India’s keenness to support the war effort was relationships. China and the United States, the largest evident when the Indian navy subsequently provided developing and developed countries respectively, also valuable service by escorting US vessels bearing have comprehensive common strategic interests. supplies for Afghanistan as they transited along the Besides large potential economic cooperation, they Malacca Straits. C. Raja Mohan observed that the also share broad interests in other fields such as paradox of Indo-US relations can be understood only regional stability and the role and reform of the United in terms of the American towards India’s periphery Nations. and the consequences for Indian security. While there was no direct conflict of interest between India and India is facing terrorist threat since a long the United States, the latter’s relations with Pakistan time. Initially, USA did not show its interest regarding and China and India’s ties with the Soviet Union India’s security. Washington’s perception on created a political dynamic that was impossible to international terrorism had been totally changed after reverse. the devastating attacks on World Trade Center’s (W.T.C.) twin tower in New York by Al-Qaida on 11 The Joint Working Group on Counter September, 2001. The Bush administration’s firm and Terrorism was established in January 2000 as a first swift response to 9/11 raised India’s hopes of a step towards increasing exchange and technology co- sympathetic and effective US action to force Pakistan operation in the field of defense and security. to deal with the terrorist camps operating from within Thereafter, the two countries maintained a high-level its territory. If Islamabad took some bold and strict contact frequently and formulated a comprehensive steps against Taliban terrorist group and stopped its co-operative agenda. United States and India can support to internal terrorist group, only then countering begin close co-operation in the following security terrorism could be possible to some extent. USA arenas: (1) improve the region’s security and stability; needed Pakistani support to fight against international (2) counter terrorism; (3) promote democracy; (4) terrorism. So India feared America’s South Asian prevent nuclear proliferation, and (5) contain China Policy would fall back into the old groove, regressing during the first 10 years of the new century. As to the days when Pakistan’s importance as a frontline Stephen Cohen, the celebrated US specialist on South state had led the US to forgive all its sins. On the one Asia security issues has commented, the United States hand, USA and India gave all of their efforts for and India’s relationship was ‘structurally changing’. rebuilding their faithful relations; on the other hand the U.S and Pakistan renewed their old relationship. Bilateral Strategic Partnership and Donald After terrorist attack on World Trade Centre, U.S. Trump’s view Secretary of State, Colin Powell visited Pakistan and The Trump administration has told US Congress that India between 15th and 17th of October, 2001. defence cooperation with India would be an important pillar in the bilateral relationship as it needs the country India’s effort for declaring Pakistan as a to be a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific terrorist country by the U.S.A. has been successful region. The Trump regime has informed the Congress after 26/11 incident. After the Mumbai blast, India that it “strongly supports” transfers of F-18 and F-16 created a strong pressure on the U.S.A. with strong fighter proposals put forth by Boeing and Lockheed

Revisiting Post-Cold Era: New Delhi-Washington Partnership in Donald Trump’s Regime 101 Martin respectively. These proposals have the Washington morally supported to India and strongly potential to take Indo-US defence ties to the next recommended China to stop the tension and military level, it said.”The reason why defence cooperation arrangements. China was unhappy to India for with India is so vital to US interests is because we concluding ‘civil nuclear agreement’ with USA in need India to be a net security provider in the Indo- 2008. China openly expressed its dissatisfaction for Pacific, a region that serves as the fulcrum of global it. The Indo-US growing synergies in economic and trade and commerce, with nearly half of the world’s technological sectors are not welcomed by Beijing. 90,000 commercial vessels – many sailing under the Re regarding the counter terrorism issue China has US flag, and two-thirds of traded oil travelling through an opposite stand point of India and USA. the region,” Alice Wells, acting assistant secretary of state for the South and Central Asian Affairs told a China and India, the two largest Asian giants Congressional Subcommittee in a written submission. have a commonality of history, culture, economy and social characteristics, and profiles of development. Wells is scheduled to testify before the House Each applies itself to internal economic development, Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific carries out an independent foreign policy and strives on “Maintaining US Influence in South Asia: The FY for a peaceful international environment. For America, 2018 Budget,” today. She said in her submission that China and India, at one end, are two emerging markets the Indo-Asia Pacific region is also home to nearly offering economic benefits and developing half of the planet’s population and some of the fastest opportunities. At the other end, China and India are growing economies on earth. “India is situated in a also two transitional countries demonstrating dangerous neighbourhood, where terrorist attacks uncertainty, from the United States’ strategic point have killed both Indians and Americans alike. Joint of view. What Washington fears most is the possibility training and capacity building are essential to of China and India, with Russia, forming an alliance expanding our CT cooperation,” she said, citing the based on a common understanding and interests of a State Department Anti-Terrorism Assistance (ATA) new international political and economical order and program in which more than 1,100 Indian security a multi-polar world. personnel have received training from the US since 2009.Wells said India is among America’s most Pakistan factor in Indo-US Relations important strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific region. For a breakthrough in Indo-US relations was the In the words of President Trump, the relationship Clinton administration unequivocal stance when between India and the United States has never been Pakistan chose to initiate a war in Kargil region of stronger, has never been better (http:// the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan indianexpress.com) has a last chance to give up using terrorism to further its goals before the US initiates action against it. It China Factor in Indo-US Partnership has been alerted to Pakistan on early October of 2017 America’s South Asia policy formulates with a view by a top Donald Trump administration official. He of China. China factor has been gradually an also made it clear that Pakistani Intelligence Agency important aspect of indo-US relations. It is very ISI has a nexus with terrorist groups. Trumps defense complex equation. The role of China in South Asia is secretary Jim Mattis said at a House Armed Services very hegemonic. As a superpower it has already made committee hearing in early October of 2017. Pakistani links with South Asian nations economically and foreign affairs Minister Asif had said in Washington militarily. Not only on South China Sea, has it deployed with discussion to US officials that Pakistan gave lot naval forces across the Pacific and Indian Ocean of efforts to stop terrorism. It was a responsible region. It has recently made an axis with Russia and partner of US in its operation against Afghanistan. Pakistan, to some extent with north Korea. This is a Pakistan raised an allegation against India- threat to American dominance in Asia-Pacific region. Afghanistan alliance. Khawaja Muhammad Asif The growing strategic engagement with Russia led argued that due to India’s engagement in Afghanistan to USA to tilt towards Japan along with India, to some in various developmental activates causing trouble in extent with South Korea. On Dokhlam issue,

102 World Focus November 2017 this region. Afghanistan has not been tilt towards it is the other way around (The Times of India). This is true, Pakistan. that Washing never considered Islamabad as a reliable partner or natural ally. It did not conclude such type For few months Pakistan has closed its border of ‘civil nuclear deal’ like India. This is the high time with Afghanistan for teaching a lesson as its closeness. to India to take this opportunity to discard the Pak- But the US officials and generals under President US relations diplomatically. Washington gives Trump bluntly and publicly called out Pakistan’s bluff. importance Pakistan for strategic interest, especially The Trump administration is said to be considering a to surveillance on Afghanistan. India has a sizable range of options to bring a country that has been middle class and a big market with potential natural designated a state sponsor of terrorism in all but name and human resources. India is the largest democracy to heel, starting with curtailing military and civilian with vibrancy, but Pakistan no such type of aid, and putting a financial squeeze. Tillerson remarked democracy. that Pakistan’s interests and concerns will be accommodated since its role was critical to President Trump’s Policy Options to India Trump’s South Asia Strategy .According to American Donald Trump’s policy towards India can be recent observation to Pakistan, its only leverage with highlighted in the following points— US is the land supply route to Afghanistan and threats Firstly, Mr. Trump is well aware about the Pakistan, of bolting to the China card bluff. The US especially, its close links with international terrorism. administration has already assumed that Beijing has Although Obama declared Pakistan as a terrorist very little to offer to Islamabad other than economic state, yet it is still pampering terrorists, like Mollah exploration through its ‘one-belt one road’ promises. Masud Ajhar, Jakiur Rahman Lakhvi and others. By Washington had expressed its irritations about China- using American and Chinese arms, which were given Pakistan Economic corridor. The growing synergy to the military, through backchannels are reaching to between China and Pakistan causing a distance terrorists. There is a strong allegation against Pakistan between Washington and Islamabad in recent years. to in jeopardize the entire regional security. Trump’s Islamabad tried to turn the tables on Afghanistan and strong stance on terrorism and comments on Pakistan India by alleging they were backing the TTP’s terror could also turn into deeper understanding between attacks in Pakistan, but the charges were laughed India-US defence and strategic ties. Trump has sought out of the international forum, where experts are all the help of India and other nations to address the too familiar with Pakistan’s hosting of UN and US- problem of a ‘semi-unstable’ nuclear Pakistan. To designated terrorists such as Hafiz Saeed , Masood combat international terrorism the US administration Azhar and Dawod Ibrahim , not to speak of sheltering needs India. Like the formers he also holds the same the likes of Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar. point of view. Secondly, Indo-US trading relations have a strong Since 1954, the USA is the largest donor potentiality. Trade and investment flows should not country of Pakistan. Pakistan has been receiving a be affected unless the US raises barriers to trade in huge amount of foreign aid not only in liquid cash but goods and services and becomes protectionist with also in military equipments and other technologies. the objective of promoting jobs in its economy. This After 9/11 incident the US administration in several could improve the defence ties and strategic times shouted to stop terrorism, but it did not care. cooperation between the two countries while American newly elected President has strictly simultaneously boosting economic ties as well. declared that it would stop all of its foreign aid to Thirdly, there is a huge scope for revitalising India- Pakistan for not stopping to pampering the terrorist US relations and also in curbing cross-border groups. There is a concept in International Relations terrorism. India now conducts more military exercises that is ‘donor fatigue’. The US is feeling such type of with the US than any other country. However, there fatigue as Pakistani engagement in fostering terrorism is still some scope for improvement in the bilateral and growing closeness with China. Pakistan has relationship. Another outstanding issue is India’s alleged that India and Afghanistan have combined to complicated custom tariffs, IPR regime and the stir up violence in Pakistan; the widespread belief is uncertainty with regards to the FDI in the retail sector.

Revisiting Post-Cold Era: New Delhi-Washington Partnership in Donald Trump’s Regime 103 Fourthly, During the campaign, Trump has production facility in Renton, Washington. “…these complained about bad trade deals, illegal immigration transactions have an estimated value of USD 23 and terrorism without giving any concrete solutions billion and according to Boeing, would create or for them .His manifesto of ‘Making America Great sustain more than 130,000 jobs in the US,” she said. Again’ is based on the idea of de-globalization which Another private Indian carrier, Jet Airways, ordered involves the US policies against free trade and easy 75 737 MAX 8s in 2017, she added. “We also see immigration policy. He also blamed emerging-market significant opportunities in the energy sector. India counterparts as one of the beneficiaries from the bad is the third-largest energy consumer in the world after trade deals and high unemployment rates in the US. China and the United States, and its large and Trump, in response to high unemployment, hopes to growing population ensures it will remain one of the bring back lost manufacturing jobs by slashing tax largest energy consumers for decades. The US and rates and implementing strict trade policies that Congressional interests in India cover a wide involves tariffs and non-tariff barriers. While this has spectrum of issues , ranging from the militarized mostly been targeted against countries like China and dispute with Pakistan and weapons proliferation to Mexico, Trump has addressed India as ‘a key strategic concerns about regional security, terrorism, human ally’ and praised PM Modi for his stance to combat rights, health, energy and trade and investment and fight terrorism. Trump has insisted on further opportunities( www.indian embassy.org). The US strengthening the strategic and economic ties that is policy of migrations is going to be changed; policy in the interest of both the countries. The sectors that towards H1B visa has been changed. Like other will be mostly affected include IT services and countries, India has requested to the US pharmaceuticals. The IT services exports will administration to rethink over the issue. Trump had undertake a hit where the outsourcing giants like TCS, already declared that nationals of seven Islamic Infosys, Wipro and other users of H-1B visas will be Countries are strictly prohibited to entry in the USA. the most affected, although he has also acknowledged After 9/11 a perception has been generated among the significance of highly skilled Indian professionals the common Americans that due to outsiders they for IT sector in the US. Trump’s strong views on are unemployed and due to a particular religious immigration have managed to capture the imagination community they are unsecured. The killing of Indians of American public. in USA is the reflections of American changing Fifthly, Stratrgically, India is so important to the migration policy. The country of migrants may be U.S.A. Donald Trump is aware about Chinese changed in near future. Trump dislikes migrants expansionist policy in South Asia. Recently, North personally. It is also true that before election he was Korea has started to enhance its nuclear power. A a political man only, after election he becomes the situation of open confrontation has been made. At President of all. It is very difficult to change the entire this, juncture, USA-Japan-India alliance is very much migration policy with a very short span. American significant. Russia has started to deploy its naval economy and technology is almost dependant on forces in Pacific in May 2017, so USA fears about migrants. Indian Diaspora has a significant Russian-Chinese implicit ties. To counter this, USA contribution in USA. American leaders have already must shake hand with India. Regarding international considered India as a ‘reliable partner’, ‘natural terrorism, Trump has a strong position as Obama. To partner’ and ‘potential power’. There is no doubt fight against the international terrorism Washington that India is an emerging power , so it would be very needs New Delhi. difficult to Trump to deny India’s position in the contemporary world today. Conclusion According to Wells, tremendous opportunities lie in References India’s civil aviation market. In early January 2017, The Times of India, October6, 2017, p.1 https:// Spice Jet, a private Indian airline, announced an order www.indianembassy.org, accessed on 27/04/2015https:// www.indianembassy.org/pages.php?id=42, accessed on 08,10,2017 of 155 new Boeing 737 MAX 8s, taking its tally for (http://indianexpress.com/article/India/defence-cooperation-with- the aircraft model to 205 total planes. The final India-important-for-indo-us-ties-4832464), accessed on 08/10/ assembly of the MAX 737 takes place at the Boeing 2017 White, Joshua.T, ‘The Potomac Flows by the Yamuna’, Outlook, February 2, 2015 104 World Focus November 2017 India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium Dr. Shreesh K. Pathak

How should we think about world politics after in a truly super power status which presence can be the end of the cold war, after the breakup of the felt in each continent and regions of the world system. Soviet Union, after the September 11 attacks, with There are other world powers in the world arena but the onset of the war on terror? My answer is only US enjoyed a sole super power status3. simple: ours is a world of regions, embedded deeply in an American Imperium. A generation Globalisation of world politics has become ago, Hedley Bull imagined a world without the evident and gradually the multiple interests of diverse cold war as a more regionalised world system. states are interconnecting to each other. Experts are What was pure speculation then is now becoming ready to say that now the world system is tilting a reality. (Peter J. Katzenstein1) towards multipolarity from unipolarity4. Multipolarity might be the possibility of tomorrow but there is no Either for cooperation or to maintain the denying the fact of today that USA is the most balance of power, in this anarchic world system state decisive power in the contemporary world system. is bound to develop a cobweb of relations not only in Off course, the processes of Globalisation have given the neighbourhood and in its region but also at the impetus even to the processes of regionalisation too5; global level. This is the prime inspiration behind the but still USA cannot be ignored in any part of Today’s national interest of any given state actor in the world world. After the second nuclear test in 1998, India arena. All the states of the world system are trying had crossed the Rubicon and with Jaswant-Talbott to maximise their national interest and minimise the talks, India’s foreign policy has reached the point of scope of traditional and non-traditional threats to their no return and the new chapter of Indo-US nation in order to better survive and to become an cooperation has begun6. In the following decades, this influential world power. In the modern era, after the cooperation converted in strategic partnership and culmination of industrialisation process of Europe, now the Trump administration wants that India must once Britain ruled the world by imperial means and do greater participation in the regions in line with USA reduced several countries to mere its colonies. This and its allies7. started from the journey of exploration and ended up with the processes of exploitation. Colonisation Geopolitically, India is at ‘the centre of great brought suddenly immense affluence of resources to Asian arc8’ and bound to play larger role particularly imperial countries and this eventually led to the First in South Asia and generally in Asia. Irrespective of World War and the Second World War. The race of changing of governments in India and USA, the the accumulation of resources and profit made the partnership and understanding between the two are European imperial powers wage the war within and qualitatively deepening. Keeping in view of the beyond. After the conclusion of world wars, United geopolitical conditions of India and its relations with States of America set in the British shoes willingly or neighbouring countries and the omnipresence of USA unwillingly and the world system had bifurcated again in all regions of the world, it is imperative for India’s from ‘the colonial states and imperial states’ to ‘US national interests that it would become in line with bloc and USSR bloc’. From the last leg of the fifties USA not only in Asian matrix but also in global of twentieth century to the next four decades, the complexities. The steady pace of the relationship of world system got heated in the cold war era. Finally these two democratic countries i.e. India and USA is in the nineties USSR got disintegration and USA now advancing ironically on expected lines9 which retained its power and position2. This brought USA were earlier expected just after India got independence and that’s why Atal Bihari Vajpayee

India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium 105 termed the both partners as ‘Natural Ally’10. After India in Africa (Sub Sahara) Vajpaayi, Dr. Manmohan Singh intensified the bilateral Even after the completion of decolonisation process, relationship and country finalised Nuke deal. Now, Africa is still struggling to be in the line of the Narendra Modi has forwarded the cooperation saying modernisation of contemporary world system and the that this is the time when both countries must come path of development. Africa is the region where is out from ‘the Hesitations of History11’. the abundance of natural resources. Almost in every region, whereas the countries of other regions are There is huge resonance of Modi’s active pursuing development path according to their political foreign policy12 worldwide. Undoubtedly, Narendra development and society, many countries of this Modi has given his primary focus on the foreign policy regions still are untouched with the notion of of the country and he is quite successful to give this democracy and governance14. The rest of the world message worldwide that India now will take its global including USA and India is interested in Africa’s and regional responsibilities quite seriously with active natural affluence and prospective market potential, engagements and programmes. India’s foreign policy this region is looking for foreign aid, flow of FDI and under Modi government can be analysed in various gradual political development for itself. Having ways; but if the qualitative India-USA relation is influence in this region, USA can ensure its presence evident and with obvious reasons it is inevitable, too in this region as well as in the Indian Ocean. This and USA is the most decisive state actor in the also helps to check other countries’ similar intentions. cotemporary world system so it should be appropriate USA was very conscious earlier about Russian to analyse the foreign policy of India as USA, itself impressions on the region and it tried to minimise it sees its foreign policy. USA designs its foreign policy gradually. according to its role and requirements in each and every region. In fact; USA has its own way to see India cannot be confident about the security the world system and it has defined the regions in of Indian Ocean without having access and goodwill own unique way. On the website of ‘US department in the African region, especially when China already of State’, there is a tab named ‘Countries and has marked its presence into the region15. India has Regions13’. Through this tab it can be understood that understood the urgency. Though a little late; it started how USA sees this world system to make its ‘India-Africa Summit16’ at annual basis and initiated ‘diplomacy in action’. As categorised in this tab, USA its engagements in Africa. India has shown its observes the world system into seven broad categories commitments to assist in establishing the in which six are regions, as follows: democratisation process, ensuring food security, 1.Africa (Sub Sahara) investing in renewable energy and building security 2.East Asia and the Pacific mechanism for the comprehensive interests in Indian 3.Europe and Eurasia Ocean17. India has recently inked the defence 4.Near East (Northern Africa, Middle East) cooperation with South Africa18. Under the leadership 5.South and Central Asia of Modi, India definitely has advanced from the status 6.Western Hemisphere (Latin America, The of ‘visibility deficit19’. Indian approach to this region Caribbean, Canada) can be defined by economic engagements and 7.UN and other International Organisations multilateralism. India joined the African Development Bank (AfDB) in 1983 and this year in 2017, India This article would humbly try to analyse Modi’s hosted its annual meetings at Gandhi Nagar, Gujarat. activism at regional and global level but the way USA In this meeting India reiterated its promise to work sees the world in the regions. Needless to say that; in on ‘The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor’ in the this way we can also be able to observe the prospects partnership of Japan20. In July, 2016, Narendra Modi of current trends in India’s foreign policy and its visited four African countries-Mozambique, South suitability according to the need of today and Africa, Tanzania and Kenya21. Hence, Modi made tomorrow. India’s presence felt in the region and it is in sync with USA’s African policy.

106 World Focus November 2017 India in the East Asia and the Pacific inaugurated a longest road bridge in Assam and said ‘For too long, India and the US, have looked at that the North-East would play a major role in each other across Europe and Atlantic, When I connecting the East Asia to South Asia28. look towards the East, I see the western shores of Connectivity, Commerce and Culture29, these three the US22.’ Cs are the essentialities of current Indian approach (Narendra Modi) towards the region. ASEAN is the only regional grouping for trade and other cooperation which is For quite a long time, East Asia and the actually flourishing and India has announced the Pacific region was not present aptly in the strategic allocation of $1 Billion to India-ASEAN for thinking of India. Narsimha Rao government had felt connectivity30. Using the North-East area first time that India must engage itself towards the strategically requires more security and economic East Asia and advocated for ‘Look East Policy development of the region and government has (LEP)23’. Through Gujral doctrine24 this approach got already initiated several projects including a Trans- more prominence where he advocated for friendly Pacific partnership Agreement31. India is trying hard gesture towards the region even without getting to reach even towards the understanding of Regional reciprocity. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Comprehensive Economic Partnership32 (RCEP). Singh further advanced the approach and visited the The most dynamic and deepening growth one can region in his tenure. In July 2011, visiting India the witness in the relations of India and Japan in this then Secretary of State of USA Hilary Clinton had context. Both Countries have concluded the nuclear suggested that India should play more strong role in deal, Japan is investing in high speed train in India, it the region instead of just looking and she had coined also is helping to build Delhi-Mumbai Industrial the term ‘Act East’25. For USA, East Asia and the Corridor and Japan has joined recently the Malabar Pacific region is strategically quite important. Here, Exercise along with USA to check the growing China and Russia is trying hard to maintain their activism of China in Indian Ocean Region33. Modi leverage, USA would not want to lose its influence visited Australia and that was first trip of a Prime ever and also through the Pacific, USA is connected Minister in last 28 years34, visited Fiji and that was to Asia where it always would want to be an the first trip taken by Prime Minister in last 33 years35. impressive actor. Pushing India to play more active Modi even visited Mongolia36, a landlocked country role in the region certainly pushes the interests of bordered by China and Russia; and that was the first USA even further. Obviously; India must respond the trip of any Indian Prime Minister taken ever. India is call as the bilateral relationship of India and USA is the strategic partner to ASEAN. Together with growing; and in 2014, India updated its policy towards ASEAN, India accounts for 1.8 Billion population and the East Asia and in the East Asia Summit, Myanmar, in terms of GDP it is more than $ 3.8 Trillion37. That’s India launched ‘Act East Policy (AEP)26’. why India is continuously trying to be more engaged with the ASEAN. ASEAN, as a collective, now To the some, changing LEP into AEP is just occupies the fourth largest position in India’s total the superficial change, but the fact speaks otherwise external trade which was earlier at tenth largest in and Modi can feel contented with the advancement 201538. Government of India has just confirmed that on AEP. Myanmar and Thailand are the two pillars in in the coming Republic Day Parade, India has invited the East Asian strategy of India. India has explored all the ten ASEAN leaders (Brunei, Combodia, further avenues of cooperation with the two countries. Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Phillippines, India has invested to build ‘India-Myanmar-Thailand Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) to attend as special Trilateral Highway27’ which would eventually deepen invitees39. This would further advance the Indian the access and connectivity between South Asia to engagements to ASEAN for sure. East Asia and further. Modi also has come out from the dilemma in which Indian strategic thinkers were As USA wants and it is also in the greatest reluctant to use the North East region of the country interest of the country; India has started to take stand to connect the East Asia region through the in the region on several issues. India often openly infrastructural development. In May, 2017, Modi has reiterated about the freedom of navigation in South

India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium 107 China Sea and stressed that any disputes must be stand in its neighbourhood and the region, often has addressed as per The United Nations Convention on criticised China on several issues. European Union is the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)40. Even further in India’s largest trading partner and EU48 is now a December, 2015, when the then Defence Minister of growing voice even in diplomatic circles. Recently it India Manohar Parrikar visited the US Pacific concluded 5 + 1 talks on Iran49. Thus, it is in the Command Headquarter at Camp Smith41 where the greater interest of India that it would make essential idea of US-India joint patrolling of South China Sea endeavour to claim the yet untapped potential of India- emerged, though not confirmed by Indian source. The Europe partnership. In 2007, EU and India have territorial disputes of China with Japan, Philippines, launched their understanding over Free Trade Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei make avenues of Agreement50. Germany is leading the EU and India cooperation for India42 and vulnerability for China. is continuously in the connection of Germany. There Hence, India has definitely expedited its cooperation are some economic agreement issues between EU and coordination towards the East Asia and the and India and Germany has raised concerns over it. Pacific. Modi visited Europe in May 2017 and went Spain, Russia, France and Germany. In the joint statement India in Europe and Eurasia issued by India and Germany51, Angela Merkel has Europe has so far ignored India diplomatically and said: has long seen the country just as a regional power. ‘They conducted a comprehensive review of This also confirms through its lukewarm attitude bilateral relations and discussed new and towards the India’s membership in UNSC. But Europe upcoming opportunities and challenges in Asia, has always enjoyed the privileged relation with USA. Europe and across the world52. ’ Since 1990s, the transatlantic relations43 are This joint statement affirms not only Germany’s flourishing. The more integrated Europe is good for affinity with India but also Europe’s support to India American interest and unlike after the First World worldwide. War, US decision in 1945 not to withdraw from Europe44 has actually provided the impetus to the India in Near East (Northern Africa, Middle East) stability in Western Europe which further initiated for This is the region which has the hotplate of the world the European integration. France shares a special for so long. India has been quite neutral to the issues rapport with the US. Germany is a leading country of and conflicts of this region like USA had been to this Europe and without the US; German reunification region before the decade of forties of past century. would never have become a reality after the Second In 1914, Britain offered USA the spoils of defunct World War45. In Europe, USA definitely enjoys a rare Ottomon Empire in the region53 but US refused. This confidence and several economic and strategic region is huge source of oil resource and could cater partnerships with the countries of the region. Europe the energy requirements of any developed and is still quite dependant over Russia for its energy developing country. It was the Second World War hunger46 and the US want to minimise this dependency, when American troops landed in Iran to help USSR though is not easy. Russia is also accumulating its and to protect Iranian oil54. After that oil engaged diplomatic capital in the region and even has built a USA in the region in a very complex way and it Eurasian Union47 (EuU) located primarily in Northern continues even today. USA always wants that the Eurasia. Europe is quite professional in establishing balance of power in the region among the member diplomatic and economic relationship with rest of the countries must assist the American interest. USA world, that’s why Europe is engaged with each world maintains its relations with Saudi Arabia and other power in its own way. partners at times along with special rapport with Israel. Traditionally neutral India has been engaged with the There was a time when Europe was quite Near East (Middle East) only in terms of exporting apprehensive on Indo-US nuclear deal and even not labour and importing oil55. In the cold war, USSR so enthusiastic about its entry to Nuclear Suppliers intervened directly like USA in the region and due to Group (NSG), but with USA, through India’s efforts, non-alignment credentials and a cooperative ice is melting. Now EU is quite supportive on India’s understanding between the USSR and India, country

108 World Focus November 2017 was never vocal and verbose in this region. However; India made a surgical strike in the parts of Pakistan it suited India because India’s second population occupied Kashmir63. Pakistan has happy to be part majority is Muslims and Pakistan enjoyed a rapport of China’s ambitious OBOR policy and with occupied with the countries of the region. In 1969, with Kashmir; it also constructs the China-Pakistan Pakistan’s diplomatic push, India was forced to stay Economic Corridor64 (CPEC) which actually out the Organisation of the Islamic Conference56. But disconnects India to Central Asia. In this changing now with the emergence of multipolarity in the region and challenging scenario Russia has supplied arms to India is beginning to think and act more strategically Pakistan; this makes India’s worries more severe than here for its national interest. China has been less ever before. India is somewhat feeling compelled to judgmental and it has increased its economical come in terms of USA in the region and it can also be connections to the countries of the region, this makes witnessed clearly in the region. In recent days, USA an extra push to India for a more active role. often stresses for the greater participation of Japan and India in the region and Japan has responded well. India also cannot ignore the security of the It has not only joined the Malabar Exercise in the Arab sea and the access to Red Sea for maintaining Indian Ocean with USA and India but also redesigned the freedom of using trade routes. India also has to its defence and military policy. The growing relation retain its energy requirements as it is a fastest growing between Russia, Pakistan, China, North Korea in the country. Modi’s ‘Link West Policy’ which now has region can easily be balanced with the balanced transformed in ‘Think West Policy57’ is sufficient combination of USA, Japan, South Korea, India and enough to prove that India is now willing and acting Australia. It does not mean USA is going to break in more engaged way than ever. Modi has visited terms with Pakistan and vice versa, because Pakistan UAE which was the first visit by any Prime Minister needs USA in outside the region an in UNO and USA of India in the last 34 years58 and this visit is also would not want lose leverages in Near East (Middle reciprocated. India has developed an understanding East) through easy access via Pakistan. Also USA over security and defence mechanism with Saudi needs Pakistan to do bargain with India. India Arabia, UAE, Oman and Qatar59. Modi has broken understands this and is trying hard to strengthen its the ice with Israel and made a first ever visit of Indian relations with neighbouring countries but nothing is Prime Minister to Israel in June, 201760 and has happening in the concrete way. With Nepal, India is successfully advanced the partnership even further. consciously moving forward but with the advent of This also suits USA and Israel as under the US China-Nepal friendship highways, it is not that easy. pressures, Israel forced to stop arms sales to China61, Though, Modi has started with a very positive India is now the main buyer. Now, in line with USA, development executing Land Boundary Agreement India is essentially assisting in making balance of with Bangladesh but recent Rohingya problem has power in the region against the China, Russia and exposed the Indo-Bangladesh fault lines and also Pakistan’s possible matrix in the region. India’s limitation to make pressure on Myanmar as the country is the pillar state in India’s Act East Policy. India in South and Central Asia India-Bhutan enjoys a very special relation in between In South Asia, India is in a position to play its dominant and there is open border system with Bhutan. The role not only in the land but also in the sky and water. recent Doklam dispute with China proves that this But a closer look in India’s neighbourhood proves bonding is sturdy and comprehensive with prospective that India is not that successful in its own region. The elements. India also is confident about its relation with status of SAARC in the region also speaks that this the eighth entrant partner of SAARC i.e. Afghanistan. region is quite disintegrated. As India is the only India has invested heavily in developmental activities country which connects the borders of each and of the country and understands the significance of its every country of the South Asia, this situation is quite affinity with Afghanistan. USA wants even more grim for the country. Modi has begun his stint with engagements of India primarily the Indian military inviting all leaders of the region in his oath taking boots on Afghani soil but so far India has expressed ceremony62. Leaders came and went but the relations its unwillingness to do so65. The relation of Modi’s get stuck somewhere. After Uri and Pathankot attack, India with Sri Lanka, Maldives is not of prime

India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium 109 importance, at least nothing substantial is visible to through its Election Commission. Modi extended his quote. But India with USA seems quite serious its support in IT, Pharmaceuticals and Tourism to all the interests in the Indian Ocean Region. China has four nations he visited and got uranium supply invested heavily in the Deep Sea port, Chittagong of agreement from the largest exporter of Uranium of Bangladesh, Hambantota port of Sri Lanka and the world-Kazakhstan, a security deal to fight Taliban Gwadar port of Pakistan and it often referred as with Tajikistan-a country with largest border sharing ‘string of pearls’66. Keeping in view of these with Afghanistan and further understanding with developments, India too is willing to play active play Turkmenistan for TAPI project to cater energy role in South China Sea and invested in Chabahar needs73. Port, Iran strategically for security and economic needs67. In March 2015, Narendra Modi’s Indian India in Western Hemisphere (Latin America, Ocean Tour definitely deserves a mention. Modi The Caribbean, Canada) visited Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka in order In 1823, the President of USA, James Monroe had to ensure the promise of ‘Net Security Provider’ in propounded a doctrine which talks about the security the ocean68. of American continent from the European Imperialism74. This famous Monroe Doctrine helped Modi understands the significance of Central quite a lot USA and to be in a strong position in the Asia as it connects Europe to Asia and he popularised Western Hemisphere. North America and the his ‘Connect Central Asia Policy’ with his activism. Caribbean were more or less followed USA but at Though, this term is originally coined by E. Ahmed69, times Latin America responded with ambiguity the then state external affairs minister of the country especially Cuba and Venezuela. USA has dealt the under Dr. Manmohan Singh government while he was Western Hemisphere with utmost care compared to participating in First Track II Meeting of India-Central other parts of the world. With Canada and Mexico, it Asia Dialogue, often considered then the response has managed to build a cooperative partnership along of China’s OBOR policy; Modi has tried to translate with robust border management mechanism. the notion even further. Central Asia is a resource rich region. Here, the presence of Russia is sizable Barring USA, Canada and Brazil, India has especially in the security complex and America tries been aloof with affairs of the Western hemisphere. to penetrate it through Afghanistan. Connecting But now India understands that this region is important Central Asia is inevitable for India because Pakistan collectively. It is also essential for maritime security has blocked the direct contact of India with the region and trade through Atlantic Ocean. In April, 2015, Modi through its occupation in Kashmir and China-Pakistan visited Canada and secured a comprehensive Economic Corridor. Modi toured Central Asia in July, understanding over the bilateral business 2015 and has become first leader after Jawaharlal partnership75. In June, 2016, Modi visited Mexico and Nehru to visit five countries in one go70 and India has along with business talks76, both countries exchange found a way to respond its poor connectivity. their concerns over NSG and other security challenges Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan recently inaugurated in the world system. In July 2014, to participate in a railway line connecting the two countries with Iran. BRICS Summit, Modi visited Brazil77 and had a fruitful Now, with the development of Chabahar port, India talk with the country. Cuba has invited Modi already automatically would get the access. For the countries and Modi skipped NAM summit in Venezuela78. Here of Central Asia, security net is important as they are again, one can understand, that while India is on ‘the Arc of Instability71’; which consists of the conscious enough about its national interest in the disturbed areas of Chechanya, Ferghana and Xinjiang. region but the limitation is obvious. China and Russia are the most beneficiary nations in the region and India has not claimed yet the natural Conclusion goodwill it possesses here. Uzbek Radio has just This analysis proves that Narendra Modi has completed 55 years of Hindi broadcasting72. Modi responded the contemporary challenges worldwide offered help in assisting the election processes of the quite well, though his efforts are misplaced even in only democratic country of the region-Kyrgyzstan his own region i.e. South Asia. In the waters, he has

110 World Focus November 2017 29 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/15/in-the-city-lets-play-to-our-strengths- handled the affairs well but obviously seems failed from-commerce-to-culture/ on the land. He has taken pre-emptive measures, 30http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=133723 31 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715 broken the ices here and there and given the bold 32 http://asean.org/?static_post=rcep-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership 33 http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/shinzo-abe-narendra-modi-india-japan-partnership-xi- messages that India is now ready to take its global jinping/1/1042597.html responsibility. While India’s foreign policy is perfectly 34 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/prime-minister-narendra- modi-meets-australian-pm-malcolm-turnbull/articleshow/58105443.cms in the resonance of US’ global policies; India is 35http://www.livemint.com/Politics/NbNPONGUH3nEeSkm5FL4EP/Narendra-Modi- arrives-in-Fiji-for-daylong-visit.html actually struggling in its own region and the relation 36 http://www.financialexpress.com/photos/business-gallery/73409/pm-narendra-modis- with USA is not proving useful especially in the home mongolia-visit-top-10-things-you-want-to-know/ 37 https://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/Policy-Highlights- region. Here; India only can be benefitted with the Economic-consequences-of-outdoor-air-pollution-web.pdf 38 http://www.mea.gov.in/aseanindia/20-years.htm series of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and 39 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-to-invite-heads-of-10-asean-nations-for- republic-day-celebtations/articleshow/59497883.cms mechanisms of bilateralism and multilateralism 40 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/22/indias-response-to-the-south-china- towards neighbouring countries. India now needs to sea-verdict/ 41 http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/parrikar-first-indian-defence-minister-to-visit-us-pacific- be active in its own region, here also requires a policy command -at-hawaii/1/541814.html like ‘Act East’. Without that India would be lacking 42 https://www.cfr.org/interactives/chinas-maritime-disputes?cid=otr-marketing_use- in bargaining even in the relation of USA. India should china_sea_InfoGuide#!/chinas-maritime-disputes?cid=otr-marketing_use- china_sea_InfoGuide maintain its relationship with USA in a same pace 43http://www.europarl. europa.eu/atyourservice/en/.html?ftuId=FTU_6.6.1.html 44 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/08/hitler-germany-campaign-collapsed but it also requires exploring the processes of 45http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?num=12470&cataId=nk03600 46 http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/71507 diplomatic alternatives which would be fruitful at times 47 https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/where-did-the-eurasian-economic-union-go-awry/ and increase its bargaining power. Besides; India has 48https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/23-european-union-india- solana.pdf successfully placed its diplomatic investments 49https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Iran_Nuclear_Proposals 50 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/India-EU-Free-Trade-Agreement worldwide under American Imperium and this 51 http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/european-variation-the-hindu-editorial-on- Imperium so far brings a world order which is narendra-modis-four-nation-tour/article18718799.ece 52 https://www.mfa.gov.sg/content/mfa/m beneficial to the national interests of the country. edia_centre/press_room/pr/2017/201703/press_201703021.html 53 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-one/inside-first-world-war/part-six/ 10607658/ottoman-empire-first-world-war.html 54 http://histclo.com/essay/war/ww2/cou/ira/ww2-ira.html Endnotes: 55 http://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil-imports-idUSKCN0UT1D2 1 https://goo.gl/rwHBnK 56 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Why-India-didnt-make-it-to-OIC/articleshow/ 2 https://goo.gl/Mqqoin 2810477.cms 3 https://goo.glygG4EJ 57 http://www.mea.gov.in/distinguished-lectures-detail.htm?492 4 http://www.e-ir.info/2013/06/03/towards-a-multi-polar-international-system-which- 58 http://indianexpress.com/article/india/in prospects-for-global-peace/ dia-others/pm-narendra-modis-uae-visit-quick-take/ 5 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13600829608443102?journalCode=cgsj20 59https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/04/28/indias-shifting-role-in-the- 6 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2004-09-01/crossing-rubicon- middle-east/ shaping-indias-new-foreign-policy 60 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/narendra-modis-israel-visit-top-quotes/ 7 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/donald-trump-clears-way-for-troop- article19224537.ece increase-in-afghanistan-as-part-of-retooled-strategy/articleshow/60167706.cms 61 http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/strategic-setback-it-s-israel-china-buy-buy/ 8 https://goo.gl/er1AZt 182818.html 9 https://scroll.in/article/802276/in-1962-india-and-us-were-that-close-to-becoming-allies- 62http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/in-a-first-modi-invites-saarc-leaders-for-his- in-a-war-against-china swearingin/article6033710.ece 10 http://www.thehindu.com/2000/09/09/stories/01090005.htm 63 https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/the-inside-story-of-indias-2016-surgical-strikes/ 11 http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/Why-hesitations-of-history-matter/ 6 4 https://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-cai/india-china-silk-road- rticle14408022.ece initiative_b_11894038.html 12 http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-china-narendra-modi-doklam-standoff-paris- 65 http://www.npr.org/2017/08/22/545185452/trump-wants-india-to-do-more-to-help-with- climate-change/1/1011294.html u-s-afghanistan-strategy 13 https://www.state.gov 66 http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-encircle-india-string-of-pearls/1/979358.html 14 http://democracyinafrica.org 67 https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/does-indias-chabahar-deal-make-sense/ 15 https://thediplomat.com/2017/04/china-in-africa-whats-the-real-story/ 68http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/FA8GJkfhUe3pIM3l8zyqmM/Narendra-Modis-Indian- 16 http://mea.gov.in/india-africa-forum-summit-2015/index.html Ocean-opportunity.html 17 http://www.orfonline.org/research/ties-with-africa-india-should-focus-on-advantageous- 69http://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/19791/Keynote+ address+by+ niche-areas/ MOS+Shri+E+Ahamed+at+First+India Central+Asia+Dialogue 18 https://www.idsa-india.org/an-jan00-4.html 70http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/11735255/Modi-tours-Central-Asia- 19 http://www.livemint.com/Politics/4CS3mKqz6HQfDaVs0f0l6N/During-Modi-visit-India- in-Great-Game-move.html inks-deal-with-Mozambique-to-buy-pu.html 71 https://www.csis.org/programs/transnational-threats-project/militancy-and-arc-instability/ 20 http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/narendra-modi-inaugurates-african- militancy-and-arc-instability development-banks-agm/article18528915.ece 72 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/hindis-importance-to-increase-with-indias- 21 http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pm-narendra-modi-to-visit-4- prosperity-modi/article7395180.ece african-nations-from-july-7-to-11-2888198/ 73 http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7iJD1gvVb9VWUoIiPLHjQK/Narendra-Modis-visit- 22 http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=114960 brings-Central-Asia-back-in-focus.html 23 http://www.thehindu.com/2004/12/24/stories/2004122407541200.htm 74http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/what-is-monroe-doctrine-in-history/ 24 https://www.idsa-india.org/an-jul9-8.html article19511430.ece 25 http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/time-for-india-to-lead-an-insight-into-hillary- 75 http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/narendra-modis-visit-to-canada- clinton-s-world-vision/story-QbdLpI5Rfkv3ul3RimdftM.html generated-business-worth-1-6-bn-canadian-dollars/ 2 6 http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/24253/ 76 https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/how-modis-nuclear-agenda-matters-for-mexico/ East+Asia+Summit+Declaration+on+combatin g+wildlife+trafficking+Nay+Pyi+Taw+ 77http://www.jagranjosh.com/current-affairs/narendra-modi-visited-brazil-to-attend-6th- Myanmar+November+13++2014 brics-summit-1405665341-1 27 https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/a-promising-trilateral-india-myanmar-thailand/ 78http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/The-Margarita-mirror/article14634932.ece 28http://www.livemint.com/Politics/eiQpeboS58ReyF8w6Gf5NN/PM-Modi-to-inaugurate- Indias-longest-road-bridge-in-Assam-t.html India’s Diplomatic Investments in American Imperium 111 India - Japan Growing Strategic Synergy: A Harbinger of New Era in Indian Foreign Policy Atreyee Mitra

‘A strong India is in the best interest of Japan, During the Cold War, Japan and India found and a strong Japan is in the best interest of India.’1 themselves in different strategic alignments and were, in strategic terms, profoundly indifferent to each Shinzo Abe, Former Prime Minister of Japan other. Japan considered it unnecessary to form Speech at the Indian Parliament, August 22, 2007 security relationships beyond its alliance with the United States. India’s strategic posture of non- ‘The time has come for India and Japan to build alignment and its relationship with the Soviet Union a strong contemporary relationship, one precluded it from forming security relationships with involving global and strategic partnership that U.S. allies. Importantly, in strategic terms, Asia was will have a great significance for Asia and the often not seen as operating as a single region: instead world as a whole.’2 the security dynamics and concerns of Northeast Asia and South Asia were seen as operating quite Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India independently.6 The end of the Cold War and the rise Address to Joint Session of the Diet, December 14, 2006 of economic and military power of China, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent change in To evolve a comprehensive understanding of the India’s economic policy, from import-substitution and developing bonhomie between India and Japan, inward-looking to export-oriented development one needs to critically analyze the nuances that strategies, have led to a convergence of Japan’s and are shaping this strategic3 relationship. Though India’s strategic perspectives. In this unfolding the Strategic ties remain nascent, their course is strategic landscape, India and Japan, two important dependent on the nature of Asian geopolitics in players in Asia, are exploring the strategic dimension the coming years defining the future of both India of their relationships. The accompaniment of a and Japan. strategic color to this relationship is closely related to two Japanese Prime Ministers, both being members Foreign policy isn’t built on the bedrock of of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan: Taro Aso friendship but shared mutual interests. If Abe walked (2008-2009) and Shinzo Abe (2012-present).7 The six- an extra mile Modi stepped onto Japanese soil in 2014 decades of virtual stagnation in bilateral relations and caught Abe in a strong warm embrace signaling looked as a part of history when Japan’s Prime wider mutual interest. The atmospherics around Minister Yoshiro Mori undertook an official visit to Modi’s visit coupled with the revised global order India in August 2000, thus heralding a new phase in following Donald Trump’s rise in the US have clearly the relationship that continues to this day in put the partnership on steroids. There has never been consonance with the changing geopolitical situations a shortage of mutual admiration between the two of Asia. leaders, but both now evidently realize that the time is ripe to take the alliance beyond the borders of A Unique paradox has defined India-Japan shared interest and strike a greater geostrategic ties. On the one hand is the absence of any major understanding. Indo-Japanese ties are at an all-time dispute; on the other, the richness in relations has not high4 with the potential to become a key driving force been fully exploited for many years. Understanding in shaping a new international order in Asia based on the possibilities of India-Japan relations requires first democratic values and market principles.’5 exploring India’s own strategic and economic potential, as well as how it sees its regional security environment. India’s rise has been uneven, and many 112 World Focus November 2017 remain skeptical that it will truly emerge as a world communication. Japan will strengthen bilateral power given intense governance challenges and a relations in a broad range of areas, including maritime recent halving of its once double-digit economic security, based on the bilateral Strategic and Global growth rates. Ongoing military modernization, military Partnership.” 8 On the other hand, “Surrounded by competition with two of the world’s largest armed the sea on all sides and blessed with an immense forces in China and Pakistan, and India’s pivotal exclusive economic zone and an extensive coastline, geographic position—astride Indian Ocean maritime Japan as a maritime state has achieved economic routes vital to the global economy, on the one hand, growth through maritime trade and development of and on land anchoring the southern Eurasian landmass, maritime resources, and has pursued “Open and on the other—suggest an increasingly militarily Stable Seas”.9 Faced with an uncertain strategic powerful India will be a swing state in the wider Asian environment, Tokyo quickly perceived India as a good balance of power. Even more than Japan, India, ‘strategic ût’. ‘Unlike much of East Asia, India carries arguably, possesses one of the more complicated no baggage about Japan’s history or a grudge against regional security environments of any great power. its nationalism’.10 It has a 2500-mile, militarized border dispute with China, an uneven contest in which the logic of terrain Japan’s economic resurgence combined with and resources favor China. India possesses a growing tensions with China over maritime disputes contiguous border with Pakistan, the world’s leading has led Japanese strategists and investors to more generator of violent Islamic extremism. It also fulsomely embrace India as a partner and market. benefits from its identity as both a land and maritime Abe has also found Indians to be sympathetic to his power, given the room for maneuver and possibilities brand of Japanese nationalism, unlike his country’s for trade and commerce implicit in both. With respect nearer neighbors. From India’s perspective, the recent to the international system, India is an incomplete drift in relations with the United States has been offset great power, given its lack of full integration into a by the progress in economic and diplomatic ties with liberal international order that for so long excluded it Japan. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has sought from membership and status in leading institutions. to deepen Indo-Japan ties as one of his top priorities, India’s national security establishment increasingly prevailing in a series of internal debates over “China identifies China, rather than Pakistan, as the country’s school” officials who worry that Indian values-based primary strategic competitor, China continues to diplomacy in Asia, centered on a robust strategic strategically encircle India through construction of partnership with Japan, could produce further tension port facilities along the Indian Ocean littoral and in relations with Beijing. Senior leaders in Japan and intimate military ties with India’s neighbors, and it India increasingly view the other as essential ballast has been much more successful in securing access in an Asian balance of power that remains friendly to to energy resources in the developing world. More the democracies, while each views the other as an broadly, China appears determined to be Asia’s important source of economic renewal. The dominant power and sees little room for power sharing implications for the region, and the world, could be with India—as attested by blocking any UN Security profound. Council reform that would elevate India—or Japan— to membership. The prospect of a two-front war The complementarities between the two against Pakistan to the west and China to the northeast powers at opposite ends of the Asian landmass are leads India to divide its forces and deprives it of the equally striking. Japan is a capital-rich, technology strategic luxury of focusing on only one geopolitical superpower while India has teeming supplies of competitor. human capital and the world’s largest labor pool. Japan has the world’s most advanced infrastructure, while “India is becoming increasingly influential, due India’s own requirements for modern transportation to what is projected to become the world’s largest and urban networks exceed in scale those of any population, and to high economic growth and potential. other country. Unlike countries that suffered the India is also geopolitically important for Japan, as it is effects of militarism, Indians comfortably positioned in the center of sea lanes of acknowledge they do not have the kind of “history

India - Japan Growing Strategic Synergy: A Harbinger of New Era in Indian Foreign Policy 113 issues” with Japan that color its relations with countries of its main concerns. India is perceived as a significant across East and Southeast Asia. Both countries are security partner in terms of its emergent maritime established democracies cleaving to freedom of power projection ability to preserve the security of speech, human rights, and free-trade principles. vital SLOCs and chokepoints connecting the Middle East to the Indian Ocean,11 and further. The Far Japan provides India with economic, political, Eastern Naval Command and the Eastern Naval and diplomatic interactions technological, and security Command serves as an important connection partnership that it cannot replicate elsewhere. between India and East Asia, consolidating India’s Japanese economic assistance is special in that it can status as a credible naval power with power projection undertake projects of enormous scope and scale in capability.12 The safety of maritime traffic is the Indian economy—offering a competitive and often imperative for Japan. India is being perceived as a preferred alternative to Chinese bids on critical Indian ‘net security provider’ by the USA, Japan, and several infrastructure projects. As a technologically advanced regional players. Abe is cautious regarding the fear industrial nation with an established defense industry, of the entrapment logic prevailing in USA. There is a and one now enabled to export weapons platforms school of thought which argues that the USA is and technologies abroad due to a historic political worried about getting dragged into Japan’s conflict. evolution, Japan can help India advance its national India provides Japan with a security partner of military and defense capabilities. For India’s enormous latent potential. Growing Indian maritime modernizing leaders, few countries afford a better capability will enable New Delhi to assume greater prospect for a development partnership than the nation responsibility for Indian Ocean security, allowing that has been at the forefront of the industrial and Japan and the United States to allocate a greater technological revolutions that have transformed the proportion of their own resources to counter Chinese face of Asia. adventurism in the South and East China Seas. Japan is heavily dependent on energy supplies from the The economic growth of India has caught Middle East, and the safety of its sea lanes of the world’s attention and Japan is no exception communication (SLOCs) are a vital security interest. dramatic transformation of India’s global image. The Given, this scenario Japan needs India’s support to sustained economic growth that India has been keep its SLOCs safe, since the Indian Navy has a registering for over a decade has catapulted India to formidable presence in the region between the Straits the global stage and its power to flex diplomatic muscle of Hormuz to the Straits of Malacca. Thus, Japan has been considerably enhanced. Despite being looks at India as an active partner in maritime enmeshed in the whirlpool of regional politics, India endeavors. The DPJ’s Foreign Minister Katsuya has acquired the ability to influence, if not shape, Okada reiterated Japan’s commitment to cooperate events in the region with its ‘great power statuses. with India on a wide range of issues including security India is no longer willing to be treated as anything and economy. Japan, as one of the oldest sea-faring less than an absolute equal. democracies in Asia should play a greater role in preserving Peace, stability, and freedom of navigation Another critical area for India is to secure in the Pacific Ocean which is no different from peace, the supply of high-end defense technology from Japan. stability, and freedom of navigation in the Indian India requires Japan’s capital for investment in Ocean. Finally, India has the potential to assist infrastructure development. India’s economic Vietnam to develop as a Japanese security partner in relationship with East Asia is growing and its Southeast Asia, as both India and Vietnam currently expanding military profile and strategic competences have many of the same Russian military platforms. are becoming important for East Asia. By cultivating This does not mean that India is willing to join any security partnerships with important regional players coalition against a third country to maximize its and following a dynamic maritime diplomacy, India strategic influence. Instead, India would prefer to has sought to enlarge its engagement with this region. work together in a cooperative spirit to achieve peace Energy security is essential for fueling Japan’s and stability in the region. The centrality of Japan in economic engine, thus making maritime security one shaping the evolving Asia-Pacific security

114 World Focus November 2017 architecture is a key variable in India’s Japan strategy or strategic relationship with Japan. First, it was and therefore the strengthening of security and argued in New Delhi that this would worsen India’s economic ties between India and Japan is aimed to already frayed relations with China in return for be achieved13. minimal benefit, given Japan’s geographical distance from India.15 Second, the concept of the “Indo- Seen from the Japanese perspective, though Pacific” as a strategic construct was treated with India is important as a strategic partner, the weak skepticism, at one point being openly questioned by realization in Japan about security issues has hindered the last Indian national security advisor.15 the strategic dimension of the relationship until recently. The rethinking started surfacing when it dawned on Third, following the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, Japan that its reliance on the US for its security cannot New Delhi had made similar civil nuclear cooperation be guaranteed forever. India-Japan relationship has agreements the litmus test of the strategic interest of assumed robustness and is seen as a positive other countries. Broadly, India argued that if a development in the analysis of Japanese strategic government was unwilling to end the nuclear and dual- thinking.14 The staunch supporters in Japan for a close use technology sanctions that had been imposed on strategic partnership with India are those who belong India because of its past nuclear tests, then military to the “Pan-Asianist” school of thought. and other strategic ties with that country would be limited. The strength of anti-nuclear sentiment in The three potential factors which have had positive Japan, however, has made this a difficult demand for influence in promoting global and strategic partnership Tokyo to fulfil.16 India has refused to concede any between India and Japan in the post-cold war period more limits on its nuclear activity than it has conceded were: to the U.S., providing little political cover to Japan 1.India’s Look East Policy launched in 1991 increased for signing such an agreement.17 her economic and strategic influence in the Indo- Pacific Region among are things. Under the Though they have pressing localized security leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi the new concerns, in Japan’s case, North Korea, and in India’s, government of India proposed a new outlook calling Pakistan, they share broader regional concerns with it Act East policy- a tool for forging strategic regard to freedom of the seas (SLOCs), non- partnership and security cooperation with countries proliferation (which links the DPRK and Pakistan), in East Asia region in general and Vietnam and Japan and counter-terrorism. Partnership with Japan was in particular. seen by Delhi as a serious prop to its ‘Look East’ 2.China’s rising military and economic profile has Policy of engagement in the Indo-Paciûc. Japan needs unnerved Japan, USA and other regional players. The India’s support to keep its SLOCs safe, since the persisting tensions in South China and East China Indian Navy has a formidable presence in the region Seas due to military overtures of China and her long between the Straits of Hormuz and the Straits of persisting boundary disputes with both India and Japan Malacca. In the past, India has collaborated with other have brought India and Japan further close in strategic countries of the region in conducting joint patrolling terms. in the Malacca Straits. India’s Andaman and Nicobar 3.US has been and continues to be the resident power group of islands lie close to the restive Indonesian in the Indo-Pacific Region. To counter the Chinese province of Aceh. The southernmost of India’s influence USA initiated Pivot Asia which provides Andaman and Nicobar group of islands is barely 90 for the deployment of not less than 60% of US naval nautical miles from Indonesia’s Aceh province. Thus, forces in Indo Pacific Region. It also provides for ‘Japan and India share common interests in such cultivating strategic partnership with regional partners ûelds as maintaining the safety and security of the including India and Japan. sea lanes in the Asia-Paciûc and the Indian Ocean regions, and ûghting against transnational crimes, However the road towards strategic terrorism, piracy and proliferation of weapons of mass partnership was never a smooth one. India was destruction’18. This speaks to ‘a broad convergence initially cautious about the benefits of a deeper military of their long-term political, economic and strategic

India - Japan Growing Strategic Synergy: A Harbinger of New Era in Indian Foreign Policy 115 interests, aspirations and concerns’19. These shared August 2007 which led to the “Joint Statement on the values and interests have coalesced into a ‘system Advancement of the Strategic and Global Partnership principle’ that unites these maritime partners. between Japan and India” in October 2008. One of the central elements of this joint statement was to The relationship began to assume a real affirm the point that “as major countries in Asia that security dimension following a visit by Indian Defense share common values and interests, (both) must Minister Pranab Mukherjee to Tokyo in 2006, including advance bilateral cooperation as well as cooperation agreement on the significant expansion and in regional and multilateral areas”. Amongst other formalization of defense ties, particularly in the area things, this referred to developing common of maritime cooperation. The relationship, however, approaches to institutions like the EAS, the United acquired a “strategic orientation” when Prime Minister Nations and global issues like terrorism and the World Junichiro Koizumi20 and Manmohan Singh who for Trade Organization. The visit of Their Imperial the first time in their joint statement confirmed that: Majesties- Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko to “The global partnership between India and Japan India from 30th November to 6th December 2013, reflects a broad convergence of their long-term after an interval of over half a century was a clear political, economic and strategic interests, aspirations, signal from the Japanese political establishment that objectives and concerns. India and Japan view each India was a special partner for Japan. This was the other as partners that have responsibility for, and are first state visit of Japanese emperor not only in India capable of, responding to global and regional but the entire South Asia. challenges in keeping with their global partnership. A strong, prosperous and dynamic India is, therefore, in It is clear that evolving geopolitical realities the interest of Japan and vice versa”21. This reflected are shaping the India-Japan relationship. While the the convergence of their long-term political, economic ‘China threat’ theory and declining US influence in and strategic interests. The global partnership was the region is making Abe explore alternatives like expanded into strategic and global partnership in India, Japan is vital in India’s Look East, Engage East, December 2006 following Manmohan Singh‘s sojourn and Act East policies. Western analysts assume Abe to Tokyo during the second summit. is exaggerating when he says India is his country’s “most important bilateral relationship”. They miss not The Indo-Japan strategic relationship reached only what Indian and Japanese officials call the a new height when Prime Minister Naoto Kan with “perfect chemistry” between Modi and Abe but also his Indian counterpart decided to “steadily expand the belief both have that the other country is crucial security and defense cooperation between India and to their ambitious plans on the home front. China is Japan” and pledged to “cooperate to enhance their just the icing on the cake. capacity in responding to security challenges such as maritime security which entails the safety and It is in the realm of security where the freedom of navigation and counter piracy, evolution of Indo-Japanese relations is most apparent. humanitarian assistance and disaster relief and By reaffirming their shared concerns about maritime response, inter alia, through bilateral and multilateral security as well as freedom of navigation, in addition exercises, information sharing, training and dialogue” to stressing the need for international law to prevail 22. The developments at the Indo-Japanese strategic in resolving international disputes, the two sides made fronts during the two successive DPJ prime ministers clear their mutual concern about China’s rise and its suggest that support for the bilateral relationship expansionist policies in particular. Stronger Indo- between the two countries is bipartisan and a regime Japanese relations may be able to deliver what change will not affect the relationship. Washington needs, namely regional stability, more economic opportunities, and provide a counterbalance One of the major symbols of closer relations to China. He concludes that bilateral relations between the two countries in recent years in the between Asia’s two biggest democracies will not be strategic realm was the establishment of the “Strategic strong enough to offset Chinese influence, due largely and Global Partnership between Japan and India” in

116 World Focus November 2017 to India’s non-alignment policy and its adherence to dividends in economic, political and strategic realms developing a foreign policy of its own. of India-Japan relations. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s role has been a catalyst - in the rapid growth of the Japan and India might find a greater strategic relationship, and the partnership is unlikely convergence in their concerns and vision for Asia. to have moved as far or as fast without his leadership. Maritime security is a priority area in the relationship. The perception of India’s strategic importance to The idea of the Indo-Pacific binds India and Japan Japan due to its growing economic and political power into one single theatre with common security and the geo-political climate in the Indo-Asia- Pacific architecture. New Delhi has a tendency to separate (China’s rise, in particular) are great pull factors for its maritime interest areas into the Asia-Pacific and Japan. The consequent new momentums in the two Indian Ocean regions, except when dealing with nations’ bilateral relationship are likely to continue no Japan. As has been discussed above, Japan and India matter who heads government in Japan and India, have firmly established strategic partnerships. It was given developments now under way on the Indo- fear of US abandonment that led Japan to consider Pacific region’s geo-strategic landscape. Changes in forming new strategic partnerships. The US is also government and political leaders in either country may trying its best to utilize the existing India-Japan security slow the pace of development. However it is unlikely framework in its interest and has been arguing for a that the move towards embracement will be reversed network of security alliance in Asia. Seen from the as Japanese and Indian official recognition of their Japanese perspective, Japan still will need a likeminded shared aspirations and the potential benefit of closer partner such as India as it envisages a relative decline ties is mutual. It is in the mutual interests of both in the US’s power in East Asia and also realizes the these countries to seize the initiative and take their fact that the US is focusing less on regional security strategic relationship to the next level. Japan as it is military occupied at different fronts in other commands a high priority in India’s “Look-East regions. In its own interests, India is unlikely to get Policy” and in the days to come, it is going to increase embroiled in any hedging strategy in whatever form in significance for India given their common concerns, against either the US or China but would prefer including the desire to see a multi-polar Asia and coordination in a multilateral framework to address India’s growing closeness to the United States. This regional issues impinging on more than one state. This strategic thinking has led to a much higher level of does suggest that the India-Japan strategic partnership and frequent government-to-government contact will be weakened. On the contrary, a greater between Japan and India extending even to defense understanding between the two will help achieve and security matters. These are still early days in better coordination for mutual gains23 . There is development of more formal, possibly more widespread acceptance among the strategic comprehensive, security arrangements between Japan community in India that its security relationship is and India bilaterally and multilaterally, particularly in consistent with its stand on strategic autonomy and the evolving security architecture in the Indo–Pacific sees no friction with Japan. India is opportunistic, and region. India would rejoice in obtaining Japan’s support ready to engage with different states on areas of in legitimizing its dominant naval preeminence in the common interests. While there is a fine line between Indian Ocean and thereby further its great power balancing and countering, New Delhi so far has been ambitions. able to walk it. In its endeavour to emerge as a global power, India has found a reliable and credible partner Mere maintenance of balance of power vis- in Japan and will continue to broaden engagement à-vis China is not the sole driver of foreign policy and and deepen its bilateral special strategic partnership. bilateral relations between India and Japan. Many While Manmohan Singh and Shinzo Abe together saw such Japanese efforts to strengthen strategic- holding hands dipped their toes in this Indo- Pacific political relations with India as stemming from the idea, Prime Minister Modi and Shinzo Abe again are former’s uneasiness with China’s growing economic now set to sail within these waters. India and Japan power, which is seemingly being translated into share complementary and not identical, strategic greater strategic-political clout, both regionally in East visions. One finds huge opportunities in reaping Asia and globally. Both are bracing for a strategic

India - Japan Growing Strategic Synergy: A Harbinger of New Era in Indian Foreign Policy 117 challenge in the Asian heartland, not to gain 4 Harsh V Pant, India Looks East and discovers Tokyo‘, Rediff News, preeminence but to thwart Chinese preeminence. Both October 21, 2008, http://in.rediff.com/news/2008/oct/21guest.htm 5 Anirudh Suri,India and Japan: Congruence, at Last‘, Asia Times Online, countries have worked hard over the past few years June 9, 2007, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IF09Df03.html to establish a solid foundation for building the 6 See generally, Barry Buzan, Ole Waever and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A relationship into a truly strategic partnership. One has New Framework for Analysis 7 Abe had long been a proponent of the idea that India and Japan shared a to critically analyze the nuances that are shaping this common strategic interest over the potential threat posed by China and a bilateral relationship to evolve a comprehensive weakening U.S. commitment to the Asia Pacific. In his 2007 book, Towards understanding of the developing bonhomie between a Beautiful Country: My Vision for Japan,Abe wrote it would “not be a surprise if in another decade, Japan-India relations overtake Japan-U.S. and India and Japan. While defense and strategic co- Japan-China ties.” operation have now been included, economic 8 National Security Strategy, 17 December 2013 relations24 have been the bed-rock of the India Japan 9 NSS, December 17, 2013 10 relationship. More importantly, Japan’s initiatives such Raja Mohan 2007 Content an Uncertain Trumpet? India’s Role in Southeast Asian Security C. Raja Mohan India Review Vol. 12, ISS. 3,2013 as its keenness to invest heavily in India, amending 11 Christopher W. Hughes, “Japan’s Response to China’s Rise: Regional of constitution to allow defense relations with India, Engagement, Global Containment, Dangers of Collision”, International playing a role in India’s high-end infrastructural Affairs, vol. 85, no. 4, 2009, http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/1014/1/WRAP _Hughes_9871481-080709-japans_response_to_chinas_rise_international development and making drastic exemption to enter _affairs.pdf into an extremely crucial and significant civil nuclear 12 Arpita Mathur, “India-Japan Relations: Drivers, Trends and Prospects”, deal with India are all signs of a much stronger India- RSIS Monograph No. 23, 2012 13 25 Pant, Harsh V., “India Looks East and discovers Tokyo,” Rediff News, 21 Japan relationship in the future. October 2008. [http://in.rediff.com /news/2008/oct/21guest.htm 14 Changing Dynamics of India-Japan Relations: Future Trends Rajaram In summary, since its nominal establishment Panda 15 in 2001, but especially beginning with the increased National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, at a book launch on 6 March, 2013, questioned the idea of the “Indo-Pacific.” http:// orfonline.org/ activity launched in 2005–06, the partnership has gone cms/sites/orfonline/modules/report/ReportDetail.html?cmaid from strength to strength. ‘Japan’s recent interest in =49060&mmacmaid=49061 India has taken off from a very low base and is set to 16 On the extent of anti-nuclear sentiment in the Japanese system see Rajiv Nayan, “India-Japan Strategic Partnership, Institute for Defence Studies and accelerate’. The trajectory of India-Japan relations Analyses Issue Brief, 11 June, 2013 http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ is ûrmly set and demands concerted implementation IndiaJapanStrategicPartnership_ rnayan_110613 of the roadmap already drawn out’. The JISP (Japan– 17https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/191693/PR150514_India-and-Japan-A- Nascent-Strategic-Bonding.pdf India strategic partnership) has achieved substantial 18 MOFA, 2007b, http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/india/archives.html gains in initiating and codifying cooperation between 19 MOFA, 2005,http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/india/archives.html Japan and India, but the more ambitious (economic 20 Koizumi made a significant difference to the bilateral relationship through and security) activities are still in the study or planning raising India’s status to an equal partner of Japan, a position radically different from the past when India was hyphenated with Pakistan. Japan’s phases. Thus, there is ‘still immense untapped decoupling of India from Pakistan is a major break from Japan’s past diplomacy potential for the further expansion of bilateral and should be regarded as of great strategic significance. relations’.26 It is not a coincidence that the economic 21 MEA India, “Joint Statement, India-Japan Partnership in a New Asian Era: Strategic Orientation of India-Japan Global Partnership,” 29 April and development partnership between India and Japan 2005a. [http://meaindia.nic.in/mystart.php?id=10059479]. is gradually expanding to include strategic and security 22 MEA India, “Joint Statement: Vision for India-Japan Strategic and Global issues within its ambit. The prevailing strategic Partnership in the Next Decade,” 25 October 2010b. [http://www.mea.gov.in/ mystart.php?id=100516597]. environment in East Asia and south Asia is likely to 23 Panda, Rajaram, “India and Japan: Exploring Strategic Potentials,” Journal strengthen the ongoing Indo-Japan partnership in of Defense Studies, 4, 4:89-107, 2010 coming days. The positive synergy of this partnership 24 India and Japan have further agreed on the mutual advantage to both is reflected not only in frequent exchange of high countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement entered between them to facilitate Trade and Goods Services. level visits between the two countries but also in the 25 “Indo-Japan nuclear deal: Modi, Abe set the ball rolling for a defining range of issues covered in their ongoing partnership. relationship in 21st century”, 12th November, 2016, First Post, available at http://www. firstpost.com/india/indo-japan-nuclear-deal-modi-abeset-the-ball- rolling-for-a-defining-relationship-in-21stcentury-3102398.html, Footnotes 26 MOFA Joint Statement on the Advancement of the Strategic and Global 1 http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0708/speech-2.html Partnership between Japan and India (22 October 2008), 2008c available at: 2 http://pmindia.nic.in/speech/content.asp?id=468 http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/india/pmv0810/joint_s.html 3 Defined as the cooperation in various areas between key international actors or as the cooperation between two powerful countries, who can perform strategic actions in the international system. 118 World Focus November 2017 Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India Shameer M

India is culturally different from Western countries through “smart power, i.e., the combination of hard and China. This domestic distinguishability reflects and soft power. in its foreign policy and the norms governing foreign relation of India is different from that of At the same time, China presents different western countries. The major characteristics of values and ideologies and legitimizes the lack of Indian domestic society are its linguistic, religious, democracy in terms of stable government and ethnic and other forms of diversities and unity economic development. It presents itself as a benign among them with mutual respect based on the power and tries to avoid the perception of threat principle of ‘Unity in Diversity’. This article among neighbouring countries upon its rise as a major analyzes how this principle influenced the foreign power. China uses its economic leverage to get policy of India in the past and what is the role of influence among developing and Least Developed it in the future policies. It argues that the principle Countries through foreign aid and also among of ‘Unity in diversity’ is need of the contemporary developed countries through large economic world to deal with conflicts in different regions interdependence. China also uses its veto power in caused by differences of ethnic and religious and UNSC and its memberships in other organizations to other forms of identities. As an emerging with manipulate international politics according to its responsibility for international peace, India has interests. Its idea of development with stable to promote its model of nationalism and unity with government is seen by authoritarian rulers as a model diversity to the global level by using its soft power for legitimizing their rule. . Introduction The emergence of India in the world as a The USA and China, two major powers in the world major power and its role in this new global scenario have been developing their influence among other can be understood by analyzing its ideologies at countries through their hard and soft powers. The domestic level and the importance of these ideologies USA, after the end of the Cold War, dominates the in the international context. In the first decade of world in both military and economic terms. The USA independence itself, Jawaharlal Nehru has shaped puts forward its ideologies, like democracy, liberal foreign policies of India on some principles such as capitalism and concept of human rights to other parts state sovereignty, sovereign equality, territorial integrity, of the world by using its military power and non-use of force and non-intervention. India played legitimizing them through its dominance in the an active role at international level, and it increased international organizations. The international activism its soft power among other countries. CSR Murthy of USA as a “world police” has been conducted says “Indeed, thanks to the UN, India became perhaps through unilateral interventions and through UNSC, the first soft power, seeking to limit the excesses of which is dominated by it. The institutions like IMF hard power in a general climate of competition and and World Bank are tools of it for promoting its confrontation” (Murthy 2010: 206). However, after economic principles to other countries. At the same the period of Nehru, Indian foreign policy became time, USA uses these ideologies like democracy and realistic and nation-centric and gave importance to human rights for intervening to other countries and hard power. Now, due to many factors especially fast dominating the different regions. In short, the State growth of its economy, India has become an emerging converts its hard power into soft power and soft power power and a “veto player” (Amrita Narlikar, 2007) in into hard power and tries to continue its influence international level. Now, India has more responsibility to the global community for ensuring world peace.

Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India 119 This study analyzes the role of India at cultures. Tagore considered India not as an exclusively international level when it emerges as a great power Hindu civilization but as a confluence of many cultures and what ideologies it can put forward to other (Klinani, 2010: 195). countries for ensuring global justice and peace. This study proposes the idea of ‘unity in diversity’ as an In many third world States, the western idea important concept that India can contribute to other of nationalism has caused civil war and exclusion of countries. This concept also can be developed as basic ‘other’ communities and even ethnic cleanings. For for foreign policies of India for analyzing the past example, in South Asia, the religious nationalism of and for proposing future policies. The first part of the Pakistan, the linguistic nationalism of Bangladesh and article examines the importance of ‘unity in diversity’ ethnic nationalism of Sinhalas in Sri Lanka cause in the domestic politics of India. The next part analyzes exclusion of other communities. The homogeneous how this norm influenced foreign policies of India in idea of nationalism and the feeling of superiority of the past and how much it was successful as a soft particular nation are major reasons behind many power for getting influence among other countries. conflicts in the world including World War, Israel- Then the article explains why this concept is relevant Palestine conflict, civil war in Sri Lanka, and others. in the contemporary international situation and how it The analysis based on this western idea of nationalism will be useful for India when it emerges as great considered India as a collection of many nations and power as an alternative to ideologies put forwarded predicted it cannot sustain for a long time and will be by Western countries and China. Last part of the balkanized soon after independence. article analyzes how India can propagate this idea into the global level and how it can use existing For understanding the strength of unity in institutions for this purpose. India, the nature of diversity of the State is to be recognized. In a religious aspect, almost all major Unity in Diversity in Indian Context religions of the world exist in India. According to India is a country with the second largest population census 2011, Hinduism is the dominant religion in the in the world after China. The total population of the country and constitutes 80.5% of total population. The country has been estimated by Census of India-2011 nature of belief and practice vary within the Hinduism as 1210.2 million. It includes peoples belong to itself according to regions and castes. Other major different religious, caste, ethnic and linguistics religions are Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism backgrounds. India was successful in integrating them and Jainism. Judaism, Zoroastrianism, and Bahaism into an identity of “Indians” and creating an “Indian are also practiced in a different part of the country. nationalism”. This idea of nationalism was different The linguistic diversity of India also too rich compared from European notion that gives importance to to other countries. The constitution has recognized in ‘homogeneity’ in the nation building. Sunil Khilnani its eighth schedule 22 languages as official languages says that in the middle decades of the twentieth of India. They are Assamese, Bengali, Bodo, Dogri, century, there were two directions in the debate over Gujarati, Hindi, Kannada, Kashmiri, Konkani, Maithili, the identity of India. One of them was impressed by Malayalam, Manipuri, Marathi, Nepali, Odia, Punjabi, European idea of nationalism and interpreted identity Sanskrit, Santhali, Sindhi, Tamil, Telugu and Urdu. of India in terms of religious terms. Communalist idea The number of total languages is much higher than it. of both Hindu and Muslim nationalism was belong to According to Ministry of Home Affairs, at present this category. For them, homogeneity was the only there are demands for inclusion of 38 more languages possible basis for nationhood. The idea of BJP in the in the eighth schedule of the Indian constitution1. The 1990s “One nation, one people, one culture” also was Census 2001 has recognized 122 languages, and they rooted in this western concept of nationalism. are also varied into thousands of dialects. The ethnicity, However, contrasting to this emulative view, another class, caste and geography are also diverse in the stand, that was supported by leaders like Gandhi, country. The culture and values of people differ Nehru and Tagore, rejected European model of according to their regional, religious, ethnic, caste and nationalism. Tagore in his lectures on “nationalism” class backgrounds. So if India started to be divided stressed the distinctiveness of India from other

120 World Focus November 2017 into separate nations on identity basis, there would sects into the mainstream of society. Universal not be any limit, and it would be a disaster. franchise nature of Indian voting system provided equal opportunity to all sects of people and created So leaders of India, soon after its an atmosphere of dependency of ruling elite classes independence, tried to integrate the country with upon all Indian population. To ensure the coexistence respecting its diversity. They recognized that the unity of diverse languages, constitution created a category doesn’t mean uniformity. Bipan Chandra, Mridula of 22 official languages instead of adopting of them Mukherjee and Aditya Mukherjee say “the differences as a national language. B. Chandra, M. Mukherjee in language, culture, religion and ethnic were to be and A. Mukherjee identify foreign policy of India also seen not as obstacles to be overcome, not as as a unifying force in integrating India. They say “The antithetical to national consolidation, but as positive policy of nonalignment and anti-colonialism and features that were sources of strength to emerging Nehru’s growing stature as a world figure contributed nationhood. Consequently, the consolidation of to a sense of national pride in India among all sections independent India was to occur around the concept of people all over the country and irrespective of their of ‘unity in diversity’” ((Chandra et al. 1999: 85). political alignment”. (Chandra, et al. 1999: 89). This They identify different aspects of a broad strategy nonalignment policy helped to avoid polarizing Indian for nation building after independence. The federal political community into supporters of USA and USSR structure of the country with great autonomy for the in their cold war. States and strong centre ensured unity and diversity. Elections were used by political leaders for the In short, despite too much diversity and integrating nation. Political parties during the first conflict of interest among different parts and sects, decades of independence had a nationwide character India could manage its unity for last seven decades. in their ideology and organization, and they mobilized It surprised Western countries and analysts through people on an all India basis. Soon after Independence unity and democracy for last seven decades without communal based political parties were marginalized any disruption. The concept of unity and diversity and linguistic, caste or regionally based parties also has emerged as an important social norm in the had not a powerful role in Indian politics in the first country. This idea has influenced the foreign policy decades of independence. Prominent leaders like of India also, and it was the basis for other foreign Jawaharlal Nehru, Sardar Patel, Maulana Azad, policy principles like coexistence, sovereign equality, Rajendra Prasad—had acted independently of their and others. The following part of the article analyses regional, religious, caste or linguistic influences. Indian the role of ‘unity in diversity’ as a principle in Indian army and administrative system also represented all foreign policy. sects and parts of the country and acted as a powerful factor in uniting the country. S. Khilnani (2011: 116) Role of ‘Unity in Diversity’ in Indian Foreign says Nehru used the instruments inherited from the Policy colonial state for the uniting country. The lack of an What is the ideological force behind the foreign policy army for Congress in its freedom struggle helped to of India when it argued for equal treatment for third keep away the party from imposing one model of world countries and New International Economic nationalism upon the whole population. Order? Why did India give too much importance to international multilateral forums like United Nations Centralized economic policy through the and oppose the unilateral interventions of powerful planning commission, industrial development at nation countries into others’ sovereign territory? Normative scale and nationwide transport system integrated the aspects of the foreign policy of India usually are country. Constitution ensured rights of different analyzed based on principles such as state sovereignty, religions through declaring rights of the minority and sovereign equality, territorial integrity, non-use of force ensuring India as a secular country. The strong stand and non-intervention. This article considers the against discrimination on the basis of caste, religion, principle of ‘unity in diversity’ as basic for other norms sex and ethnicity and the reservation policy in various and ideologies. Nonalignment policy of India was a government sectors helped to integrate marginalized reflection of its worldview of coexistence with

Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India 121 diversity. India denied joining either with capitalist or Economic Order (NIEO) and its stand in WTO communist bloc because it was not ready to see world discussions on issues such as subsidies. It can be politics in black and white perspectives of the bloc. matched up to reservation policies at domestic level India chose peaceful coexistence with all countries for historically marginalized castes and classes. Unlike instead of bigoted politics of Cold War. It reflects in international institutions created and dominated by reply of Nehru to then US secretary of state, John western countries such as IMF, World Bank, and Foster Dulles, and the then US vice president, Richard UNSC while they discriminate among States based M. Nixon when they used abusive language about on their economic share and power, institutions nonaligned movement. Nehru replied that “I submit created by India such as NAM, SAARC, G-77, and for consideration that Mr. Nixon and Mr. Dulles are BRICS provide an equal voice to all States. For saying something opposed to the democratic way of example, even the consent of Maldives, smallest State life... The very basis of democracy is tolerance for among SAARC, is needed for passing a resolution in differing points of view”. This view of coexistence the organization and all States have theoretically equal of diverse ideology is the base for India’s position in power. the present “cold confrontation” between USA and China. India strengthens its military power with the Importance of the Concept at International support of USA, and at the same time, China Level continues as largest trade partner of India. The realist The idea of ‘unity in diversity’ is a solution to various logic of either balancing or bandwagoning is not applied crises in different parts of the world. After the end of in the case of India. The ‘unity in diversity’ is also Cold War, the number of intra-State wars has been the base for India impartial stand between the conflict increased. The major reason behind these intra-State between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the West Asia. wars during and after Cold War was a clash of The State’s policy towards Israel-Arab conflict also interests among different sects and demand for was rooted in this principle from the beginning itself. separate State based on differences in their identities. India Opposed the majority plan in UN for dividing The western idea of nation-State which theorizes Palestine into Arab and Jews States and argued for homogeneous identity as a base for nationalism is the bi-national single State by sharing power between reason for conflicts in many parts of the world Arabs and Jews. India stressed that two States are especially in the third world countries with multiple not a necessary outcome of ethnic or religious diversity identities and experience of colonial rule based on among the population. However, UN rejected the ‘divide and rule’ policy. The base for these divisions proposal of India supported by minority countries and among identities may be ethnic, linguistic or religious. divided Palestine and couldn’t reach a stable solution The conflicts in Sri Lanka between Sinhala and Tamils, even after seven decades. India opposed apartheid in West Asia between Israel and Palestine and regime of South Africa and argued for equal treatment between Kurds and Turks, and in Africa between for all citizens without discrimination based on ethnicity different ethnic groups are examples of the negative or colour. consequences of the idea of nation-State based on homogeneous identity. The partition between India India stood for equal treatment to all States and Pakistan in 1947 and between Pakistan and without discrimination such as North or South, East Bangladesh also was the result of same identity-based or West, and European, African or Asian. It opposed nationalism. While the partition of 1947 was based institutions such as IMF, World Bank and GATT on religious identity, the partition of 1971 was rooted accusing them as discriminatory regimes against third in linguistic identity. In short, the nature of the conflicts world countries. At the same time, justice at points to the necessity of an idea of coexistence among international level may require special treatment for different identities within a State with unity in diversity. marginalized and underdeveloped countries due to the It is important to consider the principle of ‘unity in exploitation of industrialized countries through their diversity’ in UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding colonial policies. So India argued for this special forces to ensure peaceful coexistence among different consideration and support to third world countries groups in the future. Mere democracy and free through its active involvement in New International marketing liberal capitalism may lead to the

122 World Focus November 2017 majoritarianism and marginalization of minorities and its domestic principles. The concept of “soft power” backward classes. It may increase the conflict among was proposed by Joseph Nye (1990), in his book, different groups. So, the principle of ‘unity in diversity’ “Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American would be more useful than the idea of democracy for Power”. Nye (2004) developed the concept in his ensuring peace in conflict-ridden regions. Nicolas book “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Blarel says “The stability of India’s democracy over Politics”. The different between hard power and soft more than 60 years, especially in a neighbourhood power is when hard power influences others’ rife with ethnic conflicts, has demonstrated that ‘unity behaviour through coercive ways by using stick and in diversity’ was possible in a democratic format, and carrot; soft power influences others through there could be an institutional alternative to Western attraction. Even though the impact of soft power is political systems. India’s democratic, federal and very slow, this impact would be long lasting compare secular political model (although not always perfect) the hard power. According to Nye (2002), three major could be considered as an institutional model of ways of soft power are 1) dominant culture and ideas reasonable accommodation of minority rights, and of are closer to prevailing global norms (which now flexible adjustment to different ethnic and linguistic emphasize liberalism, pluralism, and autonomy), 2) claims”. (Blarel, 2012: 30) access to multiple channels of communication and thus more influence over how issues are framed and The promotion of the principle will also help 3) credibility is enhanced by domestic and India to improve its soft power and image at international performance. (Nye, 2002: 69). Nye international level. Throughout the history, great (2006) considers culture, political values and foreign powers have tried to export their ideologies into other policies of a country as a major resource of soft power. nations to get influence among them. The policies of In case of India, India has a long history of civilization USSR and USA in Cold War are two examples of and cultural links with other countries. Impacts of them. As an emerging great power, India should have Buddhism, writings and ideas of leaders like Gandhi its own principles to govern the foreign policy of the and influence of Bollywood and Indian dishes are State. After the period of Jawaharlal Nehru, who some aspects of Indian culture. Political values and involved actively in international politics with a mission foreign policies of the country also have reputed of global peace, India was following an isolationist history to continue as a democratic country with ‘unity policy in the name of national interest. Since India is in diversity’. India’s active role for the cause of third emerging as a major power, India no longer can world countries through its support for decolonization continue with its isolationist policies. At the same time, and for world peace through its stand for universal following its own principle of sovereign equality, non- nuclear disarmament have created good image about use of force and non-intervention India cannot follow India’s foreign policies especially among third world coercive ways of USA or USSR to promote its countries. Stephen P Cohen (2001) recognizes India principle of ‘unity in diversity’. Next part analyzes soft power aspect in his book “India: Emerging possible ways for promoting this idea into the global Power” and says “two trends seem to be very level. encouraging as far as India’s regional role is concerned. First, the revolution in economic policy How India Can Promote this Idea to Global that has swept over India makes it a far more Level? attractive country for all of its neighbours and the The propagation of one norm into other countries and many developed states of Southeast Asia. Indian international level needed planned policies and management expertise, technology, and organizational continued efforts. Principles like ‘unity in diversity’ skills are now widely exported to the rest of Asia, cannot be promoted through military force or other giving substance to the Indian claim that it is a major coercive methods. Export of democracy through power. Second, India’s democracy is having a great undemocratic way and ‘unity in diversity’ through impact on many of its Asian neighbours. For the imposing of the dominant model on others will smaller states of the region, India is something of a contradict between mean and end. So, instead of hard model of how to peacefully manage a multiethnic, power India can use soft power to attract others into multi-religious state. India’s more distant neighbours,

Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India 123 particularly in the Gulf and Southeast Asia, see India’s Since the economy of China and the military power democracy as less than perfect, but it provides some of USA are far advanced than India, it may not be assurance that India is unlikely to transform itself into able to compete with them at least for this decade. an aggressive, expansionist state. India is a growing So, India has to focus on its soft power aspects for power, but few of its neighbours (except Pakistan getting influence among other countries. Diaspora of and perhaps China) see this growth as threatening” India is another important factor for influencing (Cohen, 2001: 267). So, India is powerful in all three ordinary citizens and policy makers of other countries aspects of Nye’s explanation of soft power. India and for spreading Indian culture of ‘unity in diversity’ can utilize this power for promoting its principle of to other countries. ‘unity in diversity’ through public diplomacy and direct reach to the citizens of other countries. For this The leadership role in UN peacekeeping purpose, Indian Bollywood has to promote the idea force is another way of promoting the principle of of pluralism and coexistence purposely, and the Indian ‘unity in diversity’. In the history of UN peacekeeping, government has to create an Arabic channel to India has provided one of the longest and most promote ideologies of India to West Asian countries. consistent records of participation (Krishnasamy, 2010: 227). According to India’s Ministry of External Leadership role in international organizations Affairs, India has participated in forty-three out of is another way of promoting the idea of ‘unity in the sixty-three UN peace missions with a total diversity’ to the global level. Soon after independence, contribution exceeding 1,60,000 troops2. Soon after despite India had no much economic or military Cold War, India has participated in twenty-three power, the State had achieved leadership image operations in fifteen different locations of the world among third world countries. But, after Nehru’s including Cambodia, Somalia, Rwanda, Haiti, and period, India shifted its focus from “idealist Mozambique. (Krishnasamy, 2010: 228). The causes internationalism” to “realistic national interest” and of the problem in many countries are rooted in identity from soft power to hard power. It has negatively differences based on ethnic, linguistic or religious affected the reputation of the State among other third diversity. One powerful group, either because of their countries. Even though for a combination of soft power majority in terms of population or because of their and hard power is needed for “smart power” that is military power with or without the support of external proposed by scholars like Suzanne Nossel, over- powers, suppress other communities. It causes emphasis on hard power will negatively affect the conflicts and civil war among these groups. Cold War soft power of State. For example, the invasion of between USA and USSR and their interest to get USA to Iraq in 2003 created a negative image about influence among these groups have led them to the USA and anti-Americanism spread into other military support to these groups and caused the countries. To recover the image, USA now focuses violence between these groups to be bloodier. The on public diplomacy and tries to improve its soft democratization of the conflict-ridden countries may power. Just like that, nuclear test of India in 1998 not be enough to stop the civil war. Some time election caused losing its reputation for universal disarmament process may lead to more competition and polarization among other countries especially third world countries. among the different groups, and it also may cause majoritarianism and oppression of minority community To get leadership role among third world by the majority. So, unity among diverse communities countries, India has to focus on soft power rather is to be established before the democratization of than military powers. India can use its economic conflict-ridden countries. India can use its history and power for foreign aid to other developing countries. experience of cooperation with third world countries Compare to China, India has the advantage of and its ideology of ‘unity in diversity’ for uniting among democratic, pluralistic culture with ‘unity in diversity’. conflicting States and communities. So, India has to Considering its history, other countries, except come into the leadership role of UN peacekeeping Pakistan, do not see the emergence of India as a force for designing agenda of the force rather than threat to them. So, India has an advantage over China just sending military persons to act according to to get leadership role among third world countries. agenda determined by others.

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(2006), “”Springing Tiger”, India Today, of Home Affairs, Government of India, [Web: Online], 25 September, [Web: Online], accessed on 14-08-2015, URL: accessed on 10-08-2015, URL: http://censusindia.gov.in/ http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/if-india-can-combine- Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/04-Distribution its-hard-and-soft-powers-it-will-become-a-smart-power/1/ _by_Religion.pdf 180511.html Chandra, Bipan, Mukherjee, Mridula and ukherjee, Aditya Purushothaman, Uma (2010), “Shifting Perceptions of (1999), India after Independence, Penguin Books Power: Soft Power and India’s Foreign Policy”, Journal of Cohen, Stephen Philip (2001), India: Emerging Power, Peace Studies, 17 (2&3) “Brookings Institution Press: Washington, D.C. Scott, David (2011), Handbook of India’s International Hartawan, Bambang (2011), “Unity in Diversity: An Relations, Routledge: London Indonesian Vision of International Relations”, U.S. Army Footnotes 1 War College http://mha.nic.in/hindi/sites/upload_files/mhahindi/files/ Khilnani, Sunil (2010), “Politics and National Identity”, in pdf/Eighth_Schedule.pdf 2 Niraja Gopal Jayal and Pratap Bhanu Mehta (Eds.), The India’s contribution to UN Peacekeeping Missions, MEA, Government of India, http://www.mea.gov.in/photo- features.htm?842/Indias+co Unity in Diversity: A Normative Agenda In the Foreign Policy of India 125 The Emerging Contours of China’s South Asia Policy: Challenges for Indian Foreign Policy Mahfooz Alam

Introduction consequently their resultant implications for India. The The interactions between China and South Asia are article also looks into China’s engagement with the of old antiquity1. The earlier engagement in ancient ‘focus countries’ in the military- strategic domain times between China and the South Asia was confined within the framework of ‘string of pearls’ debate. It largely to the religio-cultural sphere (ibid). However, also delineates China’s entry into the Indian Ocean the ties between China and South Asian countries with a clear-cut strategic focus in mind conditioned have witnessed a significant transformation in by the cold logic of geopolitics. It also analyses the contemporary times with comprehensive interlinkages challenges posed to India’s own neighbourhood developing in the domain of both geopolitics and diplomacy as a result of decisive Chinese presence geoeconomics. China has also developed ties with in the South Asian Region. the South Asian countries at the political level. Apart from its traditionally strong ties with Pakistan, China Essence of China’s South Asia Policy has also developed ties of far-reaching importance The most important IR story of the 21st century is with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. In the ‘geostrategic the rise of China.3In the 1990s and especially with eyes’ of China, the rivalry with India has been an the dawn of the 21st century the entire paradigm of important benchmark shaping its strategic ties with the relationship between China and South Asia has India’s smaller neighbours in South Asia2. China was undergone a significant transformation. China’s even involved in a border conflict with India in the courting of countries other than Pakistan with a new region that caused very severe geo-political urgency in the South Asian region is meant to constrict consequences for regional rivalry (Singh 2003; Garver India’s influence in the geostrategic space of South 2001). China’s concerted attempt at bolstering the Asia. Apart from engagements in the politico-military military capabilities of India’s neighbours like Pakistan, domain, China started investing economic resources Bangladesh and Sri Lanka has been a source of in the South Asian economies at a gigantic scale. discomfiture for the Indian strategic community. China was quite comfortable in investing economic China’s involvement with our neighbours has resources because it accumulated huge forex transformed the strategic terrain of South Asian reserves backed by its double-digit growth rate. China geopolitics. also started focussing on multilateral forum like SAARC. China got observer status in SAARC in The ascendancy of China has emerged as a 2005 by its deft diplomacy which is a proof of its formidable variable in regional South Asian clout among India’s neighbours4. China has become geopolitics. As a result of this, India’s regional stature a significant factor in both geopolitics and geo- in South Asia is getting dwarfed. In this competitive economics of South Asia being an actor of massive environment, the nature of strategic interactions importance. Our neighbouring countries like Pakistan, between India and China will modify and influence Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have also welcomed the regional security environment. This article looks Chinese investments in various developmental at the issues under the theoretical paradigm of balance projects. China has become a very important strategic of power, balance-of-threat theory (given by Stephen and economic player in South Asia. M. Walt), bandwagoning and hedging strategies. In order to succinctly analyse the issues, this article is Mohan Malik5 (2001:74-75) has outlined the following limited to China’s ties with three of India’s neighbours features of China’s South Asia policy: namely Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka “Firstly, a key feature of Beijing’s South Asia (hereinafter referred to as the focus countries) and policy has been its ‘India-centric’ approach,

126 World Focus November 2017 which, in turn, has seen military links with India’s of Pakistan and India in its strategic interests; neighbours dominating the policy agenda. (iv) economic tie-ups with smaller South Asian Secondly, boundary disputes have shaped China’s countries.” relations with South Asia. Thirdly, of all China’s relations with South Asian Chinese Presence in the Indian Ocean states, those with Pakistan outweigh and overlay China has consciously developed naval bases in the any other bilateral relationship. South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. These naval Fourthly, China remains a major economic aid bases are strategically designed to portray the might donor to Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri of China’s naval power in the Indian Ocean and Lanka. Beijing’s economic ties with South Asian beyond to the detriment of India’s security. China states supplement and reinforce its military has kept its strategic focus in the Indian Ocean region security objectives and goals”. following a clear-cut maritime strategy. “China’s maritime relations with South Asia are interpreted as Historically, India has disliked the prospect part of a perceived ‘Chinese encirclement’ of India of external powers’ involvement in South Asia but and the articulation of ‘China’s string of pearls’ brings the contemporary geopolitical realities are such that into sharp focus the maritime dimension of this India is watching its influence get diminished because ‘encirclement’.” (Fernando 2012:462)8. Such of the over-arching Chinese presence in the region6. infrastructural investments by China in the form of The speed, scale and intensity of China’s engagements ports have been welcomed by India’s neighbours with with the South Asian countries is simply a conscious strategy on their part which dovetail nicely unprecedented. Arguably no other external power has with China’s forays into the region. According to made such a decisive gain in the post-war history of Christopher Pehrson, the phrase “string of pearls” South Asian geopolitics. Rivalry with India is deeply was first used to describe China’s emerging maritime embedded in the Chinese strategic consciousness. strategy in a report titled Energy Futures in Asia by The relationship between China and Pakistan has been defence contractor Booz Allen Hamilton9. With a primarily strategic in nature but of late substantial clear-cut strategic focus China has invested in the economic cooperation has also developed between ports of Gwadar, Chittagong and Hambantota in the the two countries. For instance, the strongest aspect region. The Gwadar port is very significant for of Sino-Pakistan relationship has been their ties in Pakistan and China in the following ways: military and strategic domain. The economic dimension of the relationship is comparatively on the Firstly, “the Gwadar complex would substantially weaker side. Perhaps the China-Pakistan Economic diminish India’s ability to blockade Pakistan in Corridor (CPEC) is going to rectify this. Apart from wartime. It would also substantially increase the Pakistan, China has also established closer ties with capability of China to supply Pakistan by sea and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka in South Asia. It is by land in wartime”10. quite evident that China’s individual bilateral ties with Secondly, “the Gwadar project fits with long- these South Asian countries have a regional standing Pakistani ambitions of establishing geostrategic purpose of containing India. This strategy Pakistan as the main corridor for trade and has been practised by China with its deft diplomacy transport between the newly independent Central in order to marginalise India’s influence in the region. Asian Republics and the outside world”11. Analysing the motivations and strategic rationale Thirdly, “In terms of energy security, Gwadar could which underpins China’s South Asia policy, Panda act as a strategic hedge, giving Beijing a (2010:305)7 says: workaround should the United States blockade the Malacca Strait during the Taiwan contingency “Factors which shape China’s South Asia policy or some other Sino-US clash”12. are: (i) the strategic and economic location of Fourthly, “From a military standpoint, Gwadar South Asia itself; (ii) connection between China’s already offers a useful installation for monitoring two problematic regions—Xinjiang and Tibet— commercial and military traffic through the critical with the South Asian region; (iii) tactical dynamism chokepoint at Hormuz”13.

The Emerging Contours of China’s South Asia Policy: Challenges for Indian Foreign Policy 127 China’s investment in ports of Chittagong framework, it is deduced that countries like (Bangladesh) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka) are also Bangladesh and Sri Lanka20 pursue hedging strategy worrying from the point of view of Indian security. when dealing with India and China putting premium Thus, Gurmeet Kanwal(1999:1721) rightly says, on their bilateral ties with both the significant powers “China’s foreign and defence policy initiatives are in the region. Unlike Pakistan, these two countries quite obviously designed to marginalise India in the can ill-afford to antagonize either India or China. Thus, long-term and reduce India to the status of a sub- I argue that the three focus countries display variation regional power by increasing Chinese influence and in their ties with China because of differing levels of leverage in the Southern Asian region”.14 The Chinese conflict and dispute with India. Additionally, the level challenge in the Indian Ocean has forced Indian navy of warmth or enmity in their ties with India is also to augment its capability. But the process has been conditioned by the political complexion of the regime hesitant, slow and incremental as defence policy- in power as a result of democratic elections and making in India is in the grip of a generalist civilian demands of different ‘political constituencies’ in case bureaucracy which lacks domain knowledge in these of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka21. For instance, the critical strategic areas.15 The fragile state of India’s Awami League government in Bangladesh is defence acquisition could have destabilising comparatively friendlier towards India. However, this consequences for India’s security as Indian armed is not at the cost of their compromising their ties with forces might be caught unawares if China decides to China. Here, it is apt to quote a former Indian diplomat, launch a swift assault on India. M.K. Bhadrakumar who says, “Most important, unlike in the case of India, there is a bipartisan consensus in Theoretical Paradigm: Balancing, Bangladesh about the crucial importance of close and Bandwagoning and Hedging Strategies friendly ties with China”.22 The idea of the ‘balance of power’ has been of cardinal importance under the framework of realist Walt (1985) says that states actually states theory of international politics. It demonstrates the decide upon their alignment strategy depending essence of power in influencing the behaviour of upon threat which in turn is affected by four states towards each other. When dealing with India factors- ‘aggregate power, proximity, offensive and China, the ‘focus countries’ exhibit a multi- capability and offensive intentions’.23 The reason textured variation in terms of strategy. “Balancing for South Asian geopolitical terrain getting challenging may involve different levels of intensity”.16 Further, for India with antecedent complexity is succinctly Roy (2005) says, “In the case of high-intensity explained by applying Walt’s balance-of-threat theory. balancing, the relationship between the balancing state India’s neighbours have a high degree of threat and the targeted state is more openly adversarial, and perception vis-à-vis India. The ‘focus countries’- many forms of cooperation between them are Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have differing precluded by political tensions”.17 Applying this levels of threat perception vis-à-vis India with Pakistan theoretical framework, it is deduced that by and large having the highest level of security anxiety in relation Indo-Pakistan relations have been conflictual in an to India. Contrastingly, China finds itself in a happy unconcealed way and hence Pakistan goes for ‘high- situation as the three ‘focus countries’ of South Asia intensity balancing’ against India by courting an extra- do not have security threat vis-à-vis China at least in regional power like China. contemporary times. Earlier Pakistan had such anxiety vis-à-vis China following Chinese takeover In pursuing a ‘bandwagoning’ strategy, the of Tibet but such misgivings evaporated after the Sino- state in question pursues engagement with a rising Pakistan border agreement of 1963 (Singh 2003). power ‘in hopes of gaining benefits or neutralizing the threat’.18 Hedging is a different strategy employed Pakistan has higher level of threat perception by states. “Hedging, which means keeping open more vis-à-vis India and hence it goes for outright balancing than one strategic option against the possibility of a by courting an extra-regional power like China24. future security threat implies a present condition of Unlike Pakistan, our neighbours like Bangladesh and strategic uncertainty”.19 Applying this theoretical Sri Lanka have lesser degree of threat perception

128 World Focus November 2017 vis-à-vis India. Hence, these two countries Implications and Challenges for India (Bangaldesh and Sri Lanka) keep their option/strategy China’s power projection capability is the strongest of regional alignment option open. These two countries in Asia.26 Such is the scale and intensity of Chinese neither want to be dominated by India (in order to military, politico-strategic and economic presence in resist India’s coercive diplomacy) nor want to alienate the South Asian region that no country wants to India (rather they can ill-afford to offend India). If antagonize China openly. India’s neighbours have the magnitude of threat perception from India would cultivated cordial ties with extra-regional power China. have been greater then these two countries could The strategic foreign policy choices and strategies of have either balanced against India or bandwagoned India’s neighbours are getting acclimatized to the with India. But given the presence of mild threat tectonic shift in geopolitical realities on account of perception vis-à-vis India in conjunction with the the rise of China. “The regional security environment attractiveness of closer security and economic ties in South Asia continues to be dynamic, with terrorism, with China- they keep their strategic alignment insurgency and sectarian conflict from our West and options open in the regional geopolitics. They do not North, increasingly threatening the stability of our want to endanger their ties with either India or China region”.27 India needs to factor in these challenges by a misplaced alignment strategy. They are managing posed to regional stability in its foreign policy the ties with the countries with diplomatic dexterity. strategies. T.V. Paul (2003) says, “China wants to limit India’s power capabilities to South Asia and Critical Years From 2002 to 2009 thereby constrain New Delhi’s aspirations to become The Chinese interest and engagement across multiple a major power in Asia.”28 dimensions in South Asia has been increasing over the past few decades with alarming rapidity, from The geopolitical realities are such that India the point of view of India’s security and its regional and China are locked in an inescapable maze of stature. However, certain developments in the period competition, if not confrontation, in South Asia. The from 2002 to 2009 proved to be very critical in strategic moves of China like docking of its nuclear magnifying Chinese presence in South Asia. A number submarine in Colombo are offensive and intimidating of important developments during this time period to India. Thus, we see that the nature of strategic amplified Chinese presence in the region. In 2002, interactions between India and China is going to have Bangladesh-China Defence Cooperation Agreement its implications on the regional security environment. was signed which symbolised deepening of military Both the countries are unable to find a way out of and strategic ties between the two countries. Again this complicated and troublesome maze. The regional in 2005, the two countries signed an agreement on geopolitics encapsulates uncertainties and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. China got complexities in the strategic landscape as it evolves observer status in SAARC in 2005. The Sino-Pakistan further. Free Trade Agreement was signed in 2006 which later came into force in 2007. After such defining Conclusion moments on the competitive strategic chessboard of India urgently needs to display a magnified level of South Asian geopolitics, the Fourth Eelam war (2006- diplomatic dexterity in dealing with these strategic 09) proved to be a blessing for China in geopolitical issues involving byzantine complexity. Given the terms. During the war, Sri Lanka got much-needed enormity of the ‘China challenge’, India needs a military assistance from China and Pakistan which flexible approach in winning the hearts and minds of filled the gap created by Indian and US reluctance its neighbours. If India remains strategically diffident because of different compulsions (Kaplan in the region, then Chinese assertiveness in security 2010:195).25 China gave Sri Lanka weapons like matters will logically increase. This could lead to ‘fighter aircraft, armoured personnel carriers, anti- strains, antagonism, antipathy especially in military aircraft guns, air surveillance radar, missiles, and terms to the detriment of regional stability. A rocket-propelled grenades (ibid). reasonable degree of assertiveness and decisiveness in the politico-strategic domain by India will have positive implications for regional stability.

The Emerging Contours of China’s South Asia Policy: Challenges for Indian Foreign Policy 129 India needs to pro-actively arrest its waning Endnotes and References influence in South Asian neighbourhood. China’s 1 Singh, Swaran (2003), China-South Asia: Issues, Equations, Policies, New Delhi, Lancer’s Books. friendly ties with our neighbours are a strategy on 2 Garver, John W. (2001),Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the the part of China to curtail India’s influence in the Twentieth Century, New Delhi, Oxford University Press. region to the largest extent possible. If India does not 3 Glaser, Charles (2011), “Will China’s rise lead to war? Why Realism does not mean pessimism”, Foreign Affairs, 90(2):80-91. rectify the situation, then its writ will no longer run in 4 Panda, Jagannath P. (2010), “China in SAARC: Evaluating the PRC’s the region. South Asian geopolitics has never been Institutional Engagement and Regional Designs”, China Report, 46(3): 299-310. immune from the interference of extra-regional 5 Malik, J. Mohan (2001), “South Asia in China’s Foreign Relations”, powers. But arguably no external power in post-war Pacific Review, 13(1):74-81. history has made such swift and decisive gains as 6 See Mohan, C. Raja (2003), “Beyond India’s Monroe Doctrine”, The Hindu, New Delhi, 02 January 2003. China. This has largely been the unintended yet logical 7 Panda, Jagannath P. (2010), “China in SAARC: Evaluating the PRC’s outcome of negligent and strategically diffident Institutional Engagement and Regional Designs”, China Report, 46(3): 299-310. approach of India to the region. Slowly and gradually, 8 Fernando, Sithara (2012), “China’s Post-1978 Maritime Relations with the Sino-Indian competition in South Asia is getting South Asia: Towards Greater Cooperation”, Strategic Analysis, 36(3):461- imbalanced and lop-sided in favour of China leading 476. 9 Pehrson, Christopher J. (2006), “String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge to a lamentable decline of Indian influence in the of China’s Rising Power across the Asian Littoral”, [Online Web] available region. Unless India takes some concrete remedial at (http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pdffiles/pub721.pdf) retrieved on 24th actions, China is well on its way to create a hegemonic September 2017. dominance in the discourse of South Asian geopolitics 10 Garver, John W. (2002), “The Security Dilemma in Sino-Indian and geo-economics. Relations”, India Review, 1(4):1-38. 11 Ibid. 12 Holmes, James R. and Yoshihara T. (2008), “China’s Naval Ambitions The most significant preoccupation faced by in the Indian Ocean”, Journal of Strategic Studies, 31(3):367-394. 13 Ibid. India’s strategic community is finding the best possible 14 Kanwal, Gurmeet (1999), “China’s long march to world power status: option of dealing with an ascendant and increasingly Strategic Challenge for India”, Strategic Analysis, 22(11):1713-1728. assertive China. Apart from Japan, China’s 15 See Prakash, Arun (2014), “Civil-military Dissonance: The Bane of India’s National Security”, Maritime Affairs, 10(1): 1-19. aggressive strategic behaviour are of particular 16 Roy, Denny (2005), “Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or concern to India in Asia. China’s phenomenal rise Bandwagoning”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 27(2):305-322. 17 Ibid. and increasing presence in South Asia is quite 18 Kang, David C. (2009), “Balancing and Bandwagoning : South Korea’s troublesome for India. China’s hostile and belligerent Response to China”, Journal of East Asian Studies, 9(1):1-28. strategic behaviour aggravates India’s security 19 Roy, Denny (2005), “Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning”, Contemporary Southeast Asia dilemma. Combative Chinese foreign and security , 27(2):305-322. policy could be a threat to regional stability as it could 20 In relation to Sri Lanka, the point about hedging strategy has also been made by George (2011). See George, Tanya Saira (2011), “Sri Lanka’s potentially seek to alter the territorial status-quo. Relations with China, 1995-2010", M.Phil Dissertation submitted at School Chinese resurrection of its ‘irredentist’ territorial of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. demands is an acute threat for its neighbours. India, 21 See Mohan, C. Raja (2003), “Beyond India’s Monroe Doctrine”, The Hindu, New Delhi, 02 January 2003. in particular, needs to be wary as rivalry with India is 22 Bhadrakumar , M.K. (2011), “P.M’s. Dhaka visit By No Means A Write deeply embedded in the Chinese strategic Off” [Online Web], available at http://www.rediff.com/news/column/column- pms-dhaka-visit-by-no-means-a-write-off/20110907.htm retrieved on 15th consciousness. As China’s material capabilities September 2016. magnify, India’s unease at Chinese presence in South 23 Walt, Stephen M. (1985), “ Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Asia is also going to increase. Both the countries are Power”, International Security, 9(4):3-43. 24 In relation to Pakistan a similar point has also been made by S.S. at a strategic crossroads in terms of their competition Dwivedi. For Details see- Dwivedi, Sangit Sarita (2013), “Exploring in South Asia. Hence, destabilizing prospects and Strategies and Implications of an Opportunistic Alliance : A case study of Pakistan and China”, Asian Journal of Political Science”, 21(3):306-327. features of unrestrained geostrategic competition must 25 Kaplan, Robert D. (2010), “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and The Future be factored in by both countries in their strategic of American Power”, New York, Random House. calculus. There is little possibility of a radical 26 Cheng, Joseph Y.S. (2008), “China’s Asian policy in the Early Twenty- first century: Adjusting to its increasing Strength”, Journal of Asian Public transformation in the competitive outlook of India and Policy, 1(3):237-266. China towards each other. But still a careful 27 Ministry of Defence (2015), Government of India, Annual Report 2014- 15, Government of India, New Delhi. management of their relationship is the need of the 28 Paul, T.V (2003), “Chinese-Pakistani Nuclear/Missile Ties and the hour especially in the context of South Asia. Balance of Power”, The Nonproliferation Review , 10(2):1-9.

130 World Focus November 2017 India’s Summit Diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan, 1998-2004: Crisis Management or Conflict Resolution Pfokrelo Kapesa

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA); a coalition interactions usually serve as diplomatic means to put government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); together a negotiated treaty (negotiated at the lower came to power in 1998 and became the first coalition level). Top leaders do not have time to negotiate the government to complete five years term in office. The minute details and therefore when an agreement is BJP was considered by many as the realist alternative reached between two parties, the chief executives to the idealist previous governments. Soon after it came usually meet to “formalize this accomplishment and to power, the NDA government conducted five nuclear sign the document” and thus are just a symbolic and tests and successfully fought a war with Pakistan ceremonial function (Feilleux 2010: 305). (1999) over Kargil intrusion. While maintaining a strong India image, the NDA continuously sought to The significance or the distinguishing feature engage with Pakistan through summit diplomacy. As that makes summit diplomacy unique from other such, the intentions and motivations for adoption of diplomatic tools is attached to the fact that since the summit diplomacy as strategy in its relations with “main actors are heads of state, summits become Pakistan present an interesting point of study. This dramatic and unusually public diplomatic events” and paper seeks to investigate the adoption of summit because of “this high level character summits also offer diplomacy by the BJP National Democratic Alliance the possibility of resolving problems that only top-level (NDA) government (1998-2004) at the centre. The leaders have the authority to decide” (Fairbanks 1988: paper will analyse the adoption of summit diplomacy 71). This has become the main cause both for its by the NDA government as a strategy in its relations advantage and disadvantage as a diplomatic tool. Summit with Pakistan. Why the NDA government adopted events can be successfully used to break major summit diplomacy in its relations with Pakistan? What deadlocks between nations and at the same time the were the conditions or factors that induced the NDA cost of failure will be huge as it involves actors at the government to adopt summit diplomacy? Was it aimed highest level. There is so much expectation from the at conflict resolution or crisis management? These are summits of head of states and the humiliation in case some of the questions that this paper seeks to find of failure cannot be brushed aside as in the case of answers. negotiations between diplomats at lower levels.

Introduction The most important factor and the key to Summit diplomacy has been defined and interpreted success in summit diplomacy “is the meticulous differently by different people. Because of the nature preparation by senior officials known as sherpas” and of summit that took place between India and Pakistan because summit diplomacy are usually designed for its (1998-2004), the definition given by David H. Dunn is symbolic and propaganda value, it is important that most apt for this paper. In his own words, summit “where a summit dealing with negotiation is concerned, diplomacy is “the meeting of political leaders for official the conventional wisdom is that the preparation should purposes, an activity which constitutes diplomacy at be meticulous- to the point of leaving the summiteers the highest level” (Dunn 1996: 20). Thus India’s summit with little more than to sign the agreement in front of diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan (1998-2004) will include the cameras” (Berridge 2010: 175). Another important only the meetings between the heads of states/ factor for the success of summit diplomacy is to have governments, i.e. the meetings held between Prime a specific purpose or agenda. If, in a summit, “if one Minister Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif and between Prime side has a definite purpose and the other brings no Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf. Charles H. agenda, simply hoping to emerge from the meeting as Fairbanks Jr. argued that summit diplomacy are advantageously as possible, the side with a clear “meetings held, for the real or nominal purpose of purpose will have an enormous advantage” (Fairbanks negotiation, between heads of governments rather than 1988: 81). their subordinates” (Fairbanks 1988: 69). Summit India’s Summit Diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan, 1998-2004 131 In the light of the above discussion, let us now the Indian government to adopt summit diplomacy as look at India’s summit diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan. a strategy? The third section will give an assessment The National Democratic Alliance (NDA); a coalition of the adoption of summit diplomacy as a strategy and led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); formed government present the findings of the paper in relation with the at the centre from 1998 to 2004. The NDA government fundamental questions namely; Why the NDA which came to power in 1998 fell in 1999 and was government adopted summit diplomacy in its relations faced with fresh election when the All India Anna with Pakistan? What were the conditions or factors Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party left the that induced the NDA government to adopt summit coalition. The re-election of the NDA and this with diplomacy? Was it aimed at conflict resolution or crisis clear majority can be attributed to “Operation Shakti” management? (series of five nuclear tests codenamed operation Shakti) and the Kargil victory, the successful limited Conditions and Factors for the adoption of Summit war fought with arch rival Pakistan over Kargil Diplomacy intrusion. India and Pakistan have been involved in numerous negotiations over issues ranging from “minor technical The NDA government adopted pragmatic questions, such as border railway crossings and foreign policy based on realistic objectives and national timetables, to highly contentious political questions of security. The first step towards this was the testing of vital national security interests, such as nuclear five nuclear devices soon after it came to power at the confidence-building measures and the Kashmir centre which serves as major clarification for the disputes” (Kux, 2006: 19). India and Pakistan are well ambiguous India’s nuclear policy. Right from the known for “strongholds of the status quo and beginning of coming to power, the BJP tried to make opponents to policy of change” (Kux, 2006:22). This its foreign policy different and distinct from the previous is demonstrated by the past sixty years of “nearly government to make a place for itself “as the only force unbroken bilateral hostility partly explains this inertia, capable of enhancing India’s national interests, national but the conservative nature of Indian and Pakistani security and national greatness” (Vanaik 2002: 329). bureaucracies also contribute to the gridlock” (Kux The NDA government under the leadership of the BJP 2006: 22). did make major changes in the field of “foreign policy thinking and behaviour” from the pre BJP and its “new The negotiating experience of India and realism” which lacked “strategic vision or well- Pakistan has not been smooth. For instance the developed strategic sense, being too prone to a Tashkent Declaration, the Shimla Agreement were moralistic form of posturing as a substitute for pursuing considered major negotiation breakthroughs at the time a hard-headed and self-serving foreign policy of signing the deal but the post treaty implementation perspective” (Vanaik 2002: 330). The NDA foreign have never been carried out. The Tashkent Declaration policy was not free from criticism and as rightly pointed was supposed to create a more permanent settlement out by Kanti Bajpai India’s Pakistan policy during the and set up a framework for lasting peace while the NDA period is a mixture of “force, negotiation and Shimla Agreement was signed to “put an end to the indirection” (Bajpai 1998: 169). As such, the adoption conflict and confrontation that have hitherto marred of summit diplomacy a tool of engagement by the NDA their relation” and laid down the steps to be taken for government in its relations with Pakistan presents an further normalisation of mutual relations and it also interesting point of study. In the following pages, we laid down the principles that should govern their future shall discuss in detail the conditions, factors, motivations relations. and objectives of India’s summit diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan from 1998-2004. The paper will be divided During the NDA government (1998-2004), into three sections. The first section will examine the there were two bilateral summits specifically arranged conditions and factors leading to the adoption of summit to discuss or negotiate between the leaders of the two diplomacy as a diplomatic tool by the NDA government countries (Lahore 1999 and Agra 2001); three meetings in its relations with Pakistan. The second section will at the side-lines of SAARC Summit (Colombo SAARC analyse the objectives and motivation for the adoption Summit 1998, Kathmandu SAARC Summit 2002 and of summit diplomacy as tool of engagement in its Islamabad SAARC Summit 2004); and one UN General relations with Pakistan. What are the objectives that Assembly (New York 1998). It is interesting to note India hope to achieve by employing summit diplomacy that out of the six summits that India and Pakistan hold vis-à-vis Pakistan? What are the factors that motivated from 1998-2004, three summits were held between 132 World Focus November 2017 Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani nations. Thus the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (democratically elected “weak, revisionist Pakistan creates strong incentives civilian leader) and three were held between Vajpayee for limited conventional Pakistani aggression” (Kapur and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (a military 2007: 9). The fact that a full-fledged war can escalate chief who ousted the civilian PM through a coup in to a nuclear, which will be catastrophic and that India late 1999). Some of these summits were successful will not resort to such a war gives Pakistan the edge to while others did not bear any clear result. Some of the conduct limited war. summits were held to agree to talk and make preparation for the real negotiation to take place. For instance, the The nuclear testing by India and Pakistan was meeting between Vajpayee and Sharif at Colombo (at met with strong reactions and condemnation from the the side-lines of the SAARC summit) and at New York international community which resulted in a series of (at the side-lines of the UN General Assembly) are steps bilateral and multilateral sanctions stemmed from two leading to the Lahore summit. As such, the focus of reasons “they expressed grave concerns about the this paper will be on Lahore summit, the Agra summit impact of these tests on the global non-proliferation and the Islamabad summit because of their significance regime” and secondly, “they argued that the tests would both in symbolic and substantial negotiation that took further destabilize an already fraught security place at these meetings. environment in South Asia” (Ganguly, 2008: 45). The security condition in South Asia became extremely Soon after it came to power, the NDA volatile and thus the region became vulnerable to external government successfully conducted a series of nuclear intervention in the region. Against this background of known as ‘Operation Shakti’ on 11 and 13 May 1998 “deep-rooted fear and suspicion”, India made an effort in the desert of Rajasthan. Pakistan loses no time and “to overcome the psychology of mutual distrust by responded with its own series of six tests. India and undertaking a dramatic conciliatory move” when the Pakistan have been “locked in a bitter enmity that has Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari undertook what characterised their relationship since the partition” and Nicholas J. Wheeler called a “leap of trust” by travelling this has led to three wars between the two neighbours to Lahore to meet his Pakistani counterpart (Wheeler and endless skirmishes and low intensity conflicts 2010: 319). The visit was symbolic as Vajpayee was (Wheeler 2010:319). The enmity and suspicion between the second Indian Prime Minister to visit Lahore Nehru’s the two countries increased when the two countries 1960 visit and the first Indian Prime Minister to visit crossed the nuclear threshold in 1998. In the wake of the Minar-i-Pakistan. the 1998 nuclear tests, proliferation optimists argued that “proliferation would have a highly stabilizing impact Another significant summit between India and on the subcontinent” as overt nuclear capability would Pakistan during the NDA tenure was the much hyped “any war catastrophically costly” and “nuclear weapons two days Agra summit held from 15-16 July 2001 at rendered conflicts in South Asia especially unlikely” Agra. The Lahore process was derailed by the Kargil (Kapur 2007: 8). Can this same reason be seen as a crisis over Pakistani intrusion into the Indian side of contributing factor towards the need for negotiation the Line-of-Control (LoC) and the subsequent and the adoption summit diplomacy as a strategy? overthrow of civilian government in Pakistan when Stephen P. Cohen argued that the relations between General Pervez Musharraf replaced Nawaz Sharif in a India and Pakistan are “far from static” and fluctuates coup in October 1999. From the Kargil crisis till the “generating new aspects and complications giving rise Agra summit there was a period of diplomatic stalemate to cautious optimism, but also feeding uncertainty” as there were no official efforts taken to normalise ties (Cohen 2013: 1). The addition of nuclear weapons, he between the two countries. The Vajpayee’s government argued, to the conflict dynamics of India and Pakistan inviting Musharraf for talks “marked a significant shift “raised the stakes but reduced the chances of a new in its Pakistan’s policy” (Yadav 2005: 98) especially conflict” (Cohen 2013:1). Close analysis of the situation after its openly declared stand to not engage with a reveals that “nuclear proliferation encouraged the military regime which ousted a democratically elected outbreak the very crises upon which nuclear weapons government. later had some stabilizing effects” (Kapur 2007: 9). This is so because Pakistan, a militarily weaker state in The last attempt at summit by Prime Minister the conventional sense of the term is also a revisionist Vajpayee and which became one of the most significant state in regard to the status quo in Kashmir; which is in terms of achievement was the meeting Vajpayee and the source of fundamental dispute between the two Musharraf in Islamabad at the side-lines of the SAARC India’s Summit Diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan, 1998-2004 133 Summit 2004. The Islamabad summit between the two Tashkent Declaration and 1972 Shimla Agreement as leaders was very successful and this success can “Post-Conflict Negotiation” while the 1999 Lahore and clearly be attributed to the proper planning and clarity 2001 Agra Summits as “Talk About Talks” (Kux in the agenda from both sides. Michael Krepon, an expert 2006:x). on South Asia wrote that “the script was carefully prepared in advance” (Krepon 2004) during the Time and again the leadership of India and Islamabad summit unlike the unscripted Agra Summit Pakistan have tried their hands at solving the crisis. It held in 2001 between the two leaders. The Islamabad was one of those attempts when Atal Bihari Vajpayee Declaration concluded that “both leaders were confident and Nawaz Sharif tried to end the conflict through the of reaching a peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues, Lahore Process. The “hopes for trust briefly glimpsed including Kashmir” (Krepon 2004). The most significant at Lahore quickly evaporated” when Pakistani troops aspect of the Islamabad summit was Musharraf’s pledge infiltrated into Kargil sector of the Indian side of “to prevent the use of territory under Pakistan’s control Kashmir. The infiltration at Kargil “threatened to escalate to support terrorism in any manner, the first direct into a full-scale war between India and Pakistan” and commitment of this kind since the Pakistan backed in the nuclear background after the 1998 tests by both insurgency in Kashmir began in 1989" (Krepon 2004). countries, the crisis sent shiver over the possibility of a nuclear exchange (Wheeler 2010: 319: 320). After Objectives and Motivations of India’s summit the Lahore process was derailed by the Pakistani diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan intrusion into the Line of Control (LOC) and the ensuing The core issue surrounding India’s summit diplomacy Kargil War 1999, India-Pakistan relations deteriorated vis-à-vis Pakistan have changed and evolved over time. and it took three long years to start the dialogue. For instance the Tashkent Declaration which brought an end to the 1965 India- Pakistan War placed a lot of The Agra Summit created “goodwill after the emphasis on peaceful and good neighbourly relationship Kargil War which had frozen their relations” (Adnan between the two countries. The Shimla summit focused 2013, Singh 2006) and thus serves as breathing new on the repatriation and exchange of prisoners of war. life into the deadlock in India-Pakistan relations although The engagement between India and Pakistan are a result in technical terms the summit did not bear any results of “fear rather than opportunity” (Cohen 2013: 148) like producing peace documents which the expected and this explains the lack of motivation and political results of such summits. The breaking of ice was a will to bring about a solution to the enduring India- much needed action at the time and the Agra summit Pakistan conflict. The reason according to Cohen, for could not have served better purpose even if it was the endurance of conflict or the inability to resolve the considered a total fiasco by many. In the words of Kashmir (which is both the cause and effect of India- J.K. Baral, “although the summit failed in terms of Pakistan conflict) between India and Pakistan is achieving a breakthrough, it succeeded in bringing the contributed by the “fact that stalemate is more attractive two adversaries to the negotiating table” (Baral 2002: to each side than some solutions that have been put 289). forward” (Cohen 2002: 56). Not long after the Agra summit, militants based Manju Parikh argues that the “lack of trust” and operating in Pakistan attacked the Legislative between India and Pakistan “is based on each side’s Assembly of the state of Jammu and Kashmir in October perceptions of its own vulnerability and the other’s and the Indian Parliament complex in December 2001. lack of good faith” (Parikh 2005). Dennis Kux argued The attack s led to one of the largest military mobilization that if there is any lesson to be learnt from history in the history of the two nations and caused massive about normalizing India-Pakistan relation is that condemnation and alerts both in the regional and “vigorous, innovative, and sustained leadership will be international community. The fear of a nuclear required of both India and Pakistan to achieve tangible, catastrophe in South Asia was constantly in the air and across-the-board improvement in bilateral relations” even when the mobilization was called off in October (Kux 2006: ix). He studied the major negotiation 2002, the low level conflicts in the form of infiltration initiatives between India and Pakistan and categorised and militant attack was on the rise. This necessitated the major India-Pakistan Negotiation (summits) into the need to engage with Pakistan and peace initiatives three groups. He accordingly argued that the 1960 Indus were offered by the Indian government in late 2003 Waters Treaty and 1962 attempt to solve the Kashmir and this made the Islamabad summit possible. The problem as “problem-solving Negotiation”, the 1966 Islamabad summit has been described by Michael 134 World Focus November 2017 Krepon as “a model of high-minded diplomacy” as 11 and 13 May which was quickly followed by Pakistan “divisive words were not spoken, substantive private testing six nuclear devices on 30 and 31 May 1998. sessions were held and common purpose were evident The international community reacted to the tests swiftly throughout” (Krepon 2004). The Islamabad summit and strongly. The reactions and condemnation of the showed a huge progress in the India-Pakistan international community which resulted in a series of negotiation experience and as the two parties agreed to bilateral and multilateral sanctions stemmed from two discuss on the fundamental issues concerning the two reasons “they expressed grave concerns about the neighbours namely Kashmir issue and cross border impact of these tests on the global non-proliferation terrorism. regime” and secondly, “they argued that the tests would further destabilize an already fraught security Assessment: Conflict Resolution or Crisis environment in South Asia” (Ganguly, 2008: 45). Management There could be many reasons that motivated or After the nuclear explosions, both India and compelled the NDA government to take this road of Pakistan were keen to normalise ties both because of constantly seeking ways to engage with Pakistan despite the mounting international pressure and the fear of a of many failures and setbacks. Was the use of summit possible external intervention in the region. Hence the diplomacy by the NDA government a conscious strategy adoption of summit diplomacy by the NDA government or was it imposed upon by factors beyond its control? can be considered as a diplomatic strike to prevent an These moves and initiatives could be a result of impending intervention in the region. By adopting a international pressures, domestic compulsions or beliefs/ peaceful method to engage with its nuclear armed ideology of the party or the leaders in rule. Mubeen neighbour, India hoped to send a message to the Adnan is of the view that summit diplomacy between international community that India is a responsible India and Pakistan are usually used as tools to normalize nuclear power and thus effectively removing all ties after “periods of tensions” (Adnan 2013: 179) and possibilities of external intervention in the region. As are many times the result of external pressure to such, it can be argued that the adoption of summit normalize ties. After the nuclear explosions, both India diplomacy by India under the NDA government was and Pakistan were keen to normalise ties both because aimed at crisis management rather than conflict of the mounting international pressure and also the resolution. The fact that the BJP (the leader of the NDA) strong conviction of the Prime Ministers in peace is a right-wing political party and represented one of initiatives to stabilise ties. the most conservative section when it comes to India’s relation with Pakistan also strengthen the argument that The BJP was free of much of the historical the adoption of summit by the NDA government was baggage and associations carried by the Congress. aimed at crisis management and not conflict resolution. Coupled with their general Hinduitva credentials, according to a journalist, the BJP’s projected image as References Adnan, M. (2013). Areas of Engagement and Security Threats between India and Pakistan. Journal of the party of national security could also give legitimacy Political Studies, 20(1), 131. Bajpai, K. (1998). India: modified structuralism. Asian security practice: Material and ideational to any peace efforts in a way unimaginable for the influences, 157-197. Basrur, R. M. (2002). Kargil, terrorism, and India’s strategic shift. India Review, 1(4), 39-56. Congress (Ogden 2014: 102). Taking these factors into Berridge, G. R. (2010), Diplomacy: Theory and Practice, London: Palgrave Macmillan account, if the BJP led NDA wanted to resolve Cohen, Stephen P. (2002), “India, Pakistan and Kashmir”, Journal of Strategic Studies, 25(4): 32-60. Cohen, Stephen P. (2013). Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan conundrum. Brookings outstanding issues with Pakistan, there were high Institution Press. Dunn, David H. (ed.) (1996). Diplomacy at the Highest Level: The Evolution of International Summitry. chances. In an increasingly communal India, “the desire New York: Macmillan Press. Fairbanks Jr., Charles H. (1988), “Reagan’s Turn on Summit Diplomacy”, SAIS Review 8(2): 69-82. to hold onto Kashmir [had become] less a result of Ganguly, S. (1996). Explaining the Kashmir insurgency: political mobilization and institutional decay. International Security, 21(2), 76-107. moral principle and more an imperative of statecraft Ganguly, S. (2008). Nuclear Stability in South Asia. International Security, 33(2), 45-70. Ganguly, S. (2008). Nuclear Stability in South Asia. International Security, 33(2), 45-70. (Ganguly 1996). Many also feared that for this reason Kapur, S. P. (2007). Dangerous deterrent: Nuclear weapons proliferation and conflict in South Asia. Stanford University Press. the BJP led NDA government would exacerbate the Krepon, Michael (2004). Evaluating the Vajpayee-Musharraf Meeting in Islamabad. The Stimson Centre Pragmatic Steps for Global Security, Briefings available at http://www.stimson.org/essays/ risk of conflict with Pakistan (Ogden 2014: 102) or accessed on 15 April 2015. Kux, Dennis (2006). India-Pakistan Negotiation: Is Past Still a Prologue. Washington DC: United else the BJP’s understanding of Pakistan in relation to States Institute of Peace (USIP). Leguey-Feilleux, J. R. (2009). The Dynamics of Diplomacy, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Kashmir that” only a hawkish attitude and international Ogden, C. (2014). Hindu nationalism and the evolution of contemporary Indian security: portents of pressure will compel Pakistan to end its interference” power. Oxford University Press. Parikh, M. (2005). War on terror in Kashmir? The future of India-Pakistan relations. Forum Lectures. (Basrur 2002:54) could be enough reason to settle 289. Available at http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/forum_lectures/289. Vanaik, Achin (2002). Making India strong: The BJP led Government’s Foreign Policy Perspectives. scores with Pakistan. Just few weeks into government South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies. 25(3): 321-341. Wheeler, N. J. (2010). “I Had Gone to Lahore with a Message of Goodwill but in Return We Got Kargil” formation, the NDA government pressed the nuclear 1: The Promise and Perils of “Leaps of Trust” in India-Pakistan Relations. India review, 9(3), 319-344. Yadav, Kanchan (2005). India-Pakistan Negotiation on Kashmir since Simla Agreement (1972). MPhil button and successfully tested five nuclear devices on Dissertation submitted to Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. India’s Summit Diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan, 1998-2004 135 Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment Swati

The Indo-French Strategic Partnership has been contradistinction to India’s anti-imperialist and Non- instrumental in bringing a remarkable turnaround in Alignment policies. India’s preoccupation with its bilateral relations between New Delhi and Paris. What inward-looking domestic political economy offered little was hitherto a low-key relationship during the Cold common ground for Paris to engage with New Delhi2. War years, post-1998, India and France have set the Though India opposed French colonial polices in South- momentum to build multidimensional ties of strategic East Asia and Africa, the transfer of French colonial nature and substance. In core areas like defence and possessions in India (Pondicherry and other territories) security, the partnership has transformed from a clientele was conducted rather smoothly, thanks to Paris’ relationship to joint collaboration in areas like defence recognition of Indian leadership amongst the third world manufacturing, exchange of military doctrines and countries. Indeed, Pondicherry became the window developing a common understanding on international through which India viewed Europe3. France’s security issues. This paper critically assesses the twenty longstanding military assistance to India, including years of conclusion of Indo-French Strategic crucial arms supplies during wars with Pakistan (1965 Partnership and examines how it has catalysed the and 1971), and technological cooperation in nuclear productive development of bilateral relations. While and space projects kept the Indo-French bilateral strong political commitment and institutional momentum alive during Cold War years4. framework has enabled the achievement of many objectives and targets, procedural hassles and The disintegration of the Soviet Union and bureaucratic delays have nevertheless limited the full India’s subsequent liberalisation reforms in the early realisation of bilateral potential. 1990s opened-up new frontiers in India’s foreign policy outlook. A steady economic growth and expanding Introduction military modernisation programme was duly recognised The year 1998 was a milestone in laying the foundation by the French establishment. The nuclearisation drive of Strategic Partnership between India and France. On in May 1998 further reflected India’s aspiration to the momentous occasion of fifty years of become a major power and play wider role in Independence, India invited the then French President international affairs. The post-Cold War era also threw Jacques Chirac to be the Chief Guest of Republic Day new challenges on global security and economic front, celebrations in January 1998. The symbolic visit and New Delhi was keenly looking for a reliable western prepared the ground work for establishing a strategic state for partnership on key issues like international dialogue between New Delhi and Paris to foster long- trade negotiations, terrorism and global governance term bilateral cooperation. In his formal address, regimes. It was in this context that India and France President Chirac declared that “as India asserts itself decided to set-up a framework for strategic dialogue on the world scene, France wants to accompany India between the two. The Indo-French Strategic in its potent march towards the future and is willing to Partnership institutionalised a comprehensive offer its ambitious partnership to India”1. mechanism for systematic cooperation in the core areas of defence and security, trade and commerce, nuclear Although historically, India and France have and space technological cooperation, higher education maintained cordial relations, notwithstanding their and people to people connectivity. It has given a ideological differences, the Cold War structures severely concrete shape and direction to Indo-French bilateral limited the productive development of bilateral relations. cooperation and has provided new avenues to discuss France’s early resistance to decolonisation and its and develop “common understanding on international encampment with the US-led military alliances were in security issues”5. Since 1998, both countries have been

136 World Focus November 2017 conducting regular summit-level talks to foster this and France will commemorate the twenty years of systematic cooperation. A total of nine Indian prime conclusion of their Strategic Partnership. This paper ministerial visits to France and six French presidential examines how the two decades of diverse engagement visits to India indicate the robustness with which Indo- between New Delhi and Paris have transformed their French relations have progressed during this period6. bilateral relations. It argues that the Strategic Partnership platform has catalysed the bilateral engagement and Last year, during his official visit to India, the has yielded fruitful results for both countries in realising then French President Francois Hollande reaffirmed their domestic, regional and global interests, especially that “Indo-French Strategic Partnership is a true in the core areas of defence, security and technological partnership based on shared values of democracy, rule collaboration. While certain impediments like slow of law, equitable relationship and respect for bureaucratic processes and trade obstacles needs to fundamental freedoms and human rights”7. He further be resolved, strong political commitment shown by stressed that as “strategic partners France and India the Indian and French leadership points to the promising have many converging interests on regional and global future the partnership holds for mutual cooperation. issues”8. This political signalling testifies that both countries accord high priority to deepen their bilateral Indo-French Strategic Dialogue: The Background relationship. Both Paris and New Delhi recognise each The pretext to the Indo-French strategic dialogue was other as crucial partners in realising their domestic and grounded in the widespread global changes that ushered global interests. France’s increasing interconnectedness in the post-Cold War international environment. With with Asian economies is a prime motivation for Paris the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the old system to develop stronger ties with India. A slowdown in of bipolar bloc politics vanished and a new unipolar domestic economy and somewhat saturation levels moment appeared in the early 1990s marked by the attained in the European markets has led France to economic and military supremacy of the United States. explore emerging markets like India. Presently, India Many states who were hitherto dependent upon the and France have similar GDP sizes with France GDP superpowers for political and security guarantees were standing at $2.4 trillion and India’s GDP at $2.1 trillion, left with no clear precedent to charter their future and by 2050, India’s projected GDP of $45 trillion is foreign policies. While new centres of economic power likely to make it the world’s second largest economy9. viz. the EU, East Asian economies like China had gained These profound economic opportunities have steered ground, it was still the United States that possessed the Paris to strengthen ties with New Delhi. Besides, military might to enforce its interests in international France’s wider security interests in the region, especially politics. terrorism, and maritime security concerns in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) also calls for an enhanced For long, both India and France have had cooperation with India. reservations against ‘US hyperpower’11 and have asserted for multi-polarity in international politics. On the other side, India also perceives France Indeed, France President Charles de Gaulle’s emphasis as its significant strategic partner. France has been one on maintaining ‘strategic autonomy’ finds deep of the pivotal defence suppliers to India assisting in its resonance in Indian foreign policy12. The ensuing power military modernisation programme that includes vacuum caused in the absence of the Soviet Union also technology transfers and joint manufacturing. France provided an opportunity for aspiring powers like India has consistently lent support to India’s participative and France to build cooperative partnerships with like- role in international groupings like the G-20 and has minded states and promote pluralism in international endorsed New Delhi’s bid for permanent seat of the politics while guarding against single power dominance. United Nation Security Council (UNSC)10. India views The post-Cold War era unleashed new unconventional French support as influential in expanding its security threats like nuclear proliferation, religious multidimensional ties with the European Union. Notably, fundamentalism and terrorism, amongst others, which the India-EU annual summit level talks were initiated in posed more serious challenges to national security. the year 2000 soon after New Delhi and Paris set-up These threats had transnational linkages, including arms their strategic dialogue forum. In January 2018, India proliferation and terror financing, and demanded intense

Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment 137 cooperation amongst nation-states in areas like India’s quest for defence modernisation needs intelligence-sharing to counter them. These fast advanced technological collaboration and France is emerging security scenarios required states to willing to share its defence technological sophistication recalibrate their national security policies and tune them with India. Indeed, New Delhi considers Paris as a to the emerging realities. The faltering of communism reliable defence partner as it does not attach political and the changing global economic order compelled strings to supply of armaments and military partnerships Indian leadership to make drastic transformations in unlike the US15. Widening its defence collaboration with its domestic and external policies. On the economic multiple countries, unlike the heavy dependence on realm, India underwent severe fiscal crisis due to Soviet Union during the Cold War period, has been a ballooning trade deficits and currency depreciation in prudent strategy of India in building its military the late 1980s. It had lost vast East European markets capabilities. Driven by this new found commonality of and their favourable trading arrangements as a interests, both India and France had resolved to consequence of the Soviet Union disintegration. The transform their bilateral relationship into long-term Gulf War of 1991 also caused steep increase in oil prices strategic partnership. The ‘Strategic Partnership’ and subsequent loss of Indian foreign exchange platform is particularly important as it accords high reserves. Faced with such crisis, the Indian leadership political priority from both states in promoting under PV Narasimha Rao began large-scale liberalisation convergence in external policies on issues of mutual reforms in June 1991 and opened its economy for interest. Although different from ‘security alliance’, foreign investments. India’s industrial policy was eased strategic partnership nevertheless warrants reorientation from the clutches of state control by dismantling the of domestic policies from both sides to facilitate the license-control system and the new trade policy was common external interests16. Moreover, ‘strategic aligned with the WTO-based trading regime. These partnership’ reinforces continuity in bilateral positions successive domestic reforms promoted an active over a variety of issues. Both India and France, as economic diplomacy wherein India negotiated with strategic partners, have reoriented their foreign policy foreign powers for investments, free trade pacts and positions aligning them with commonly agreed goals market access agreements. Many western countries and objectives. welcomed these developments and France particularly The 1990s decade was marked with the looked for greater interest and participation in India’s frequent bilateral visits between New Delhi and Paris. new market-based economy. India’s breakthrough In 1992, Indian Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao nuclear tests in May 1998 and its military modernisation visited France and discussed the on-going domestic programme further added to its increasing hard power economic reforms, inviting French investments to India credentials. The end of the Cold War also expanded especially in the areas of infrastructure, energy, nuclear the strategic space for India and allowed it to play a and space collaboration17. The Indian and French navies stronger role at the international level. India adopted a also prepared the groundwork for launching bilateral more pragmatic foreign policy approach, gradually maritime exercises and since 1993, they have been held shedding away from its Non-Alignment policy, to realise regularly. In 1994, the then French External Affairs its immediate and long-term material interests13. Minister Alain Juppé visited India to continue the bilateral agenda set by Narasimha Rao earlier. Crucially, the two France’s geopolitical interests in South Asia sides agreed to keep thorny political issues like India’s and beyond, and the need to keep maritime trade routes nuclear question aside while economic cooperation secure in the IOR has encouraged it to develop takes priority. It was during this period that French constructive ties with New Delhi. France’s massive investments in Indian infrastructural sectors like civil defence industry needs larger markets abroad for aviation made entry in good numbers. After several exports and since early 1990s, India has consistently diplomatic meets, both India and France prepared the raised its net military expenditure, including arms final blueprint for Strategic Partnership in 1998. Paris imports. Indeed, India has emerged as the world’s informally reached an understanding New Delhi over largest arms importer in recent years accounting for the latters’ position on Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty nearly 13% of total global arms import share during (CTBT) and Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), the period 2012-1614. tacitly acknowledging India’s rights to acquire nuclear

138 World Focus November 2017 weapons. Though India’s nuclear tests in May 1998 also endorsed arms embargo during Indo-Pakistan war brought international condemnation, France did not in 1965 but did supply aircraft spares after India support sanctions against India approved by EU, UNSC requested to meet the contingency. The arms embargo and G-8 countries. In fact, the Strategic Partnership was quickly lifted in 1966 when France realised India’s was finalised weeks after India conducted nuclear tests, legitimate security concerns and its relative standing representing France’s commitment to take the amongst third world countries. Until the mid-1960s, partnership forward. After few months of their France arms supplies were substantial but later strategic dialogue, Paris explicitly came in support of decelerated as India looked upon the Soviet Union for the UNSC reform endorsing India’s permanent both military assistance and deeper political cooperation. candidature to it. The Strategic Partnership platform It was not until the early 1980s that Indo-French commits each side to hold regular summit-level talks defence ties resumed again with vigour. In 1982, India to charter agenda for mutual cooperation and resolve and France signed a Defence Memorandum of issues on highest priority. It enables regular meets at Understanding that saw French commitments to aid the ministerial level to monitor the progress of India’s military modernisation programme. In the years implementation of key projects. Both states have leading upto Strategic Partnership in 1998, several instituted a ‘strategic dialogue at the level of National rounds of negotiations were held to enhance defence Security Advisors’ to review key agenda points over cooperation, including conducting joint military security cooperation18. Three Joint Working Groups exercises. Some thorny issues like French arms exports (JWG) have also been constituted in the sectors of to Pakistan and Paris’ stance on Kashmir conflict were Information Technology, energy and science and resolved22. France arms supplies to Pakistan got technology to facilitate dialogue amongst government considerably down during this period and France and non-governmental bodies19. The High Level Defence opposed internationalisation of Kashmir issue favouring Committee looks after all spectrum of military a bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan. cooperation between India and France including armament sales and joint defence production. Besides, Since 1998, the High Level Defence Committee the CEOs Forum, consisting of representatives of Indian has provided a clearer framework to discuss arms sales, and French industrial bodies, advocates the two exchange of military doctrines and interoperability governments over facilitating trade and commerce amongst French and Indian forces. In 2005, a ‘Defence between the two. This comprehensive institutional Cooperation Agreement’ was signed that expanded the framework has been a key feature of Indo-French scope to “joint manufacturing, research and Strategic Partnership that has lent continuity in bilateral development and procurement of defence material and agenda and has smoothened its implementation within sharing technical information”23.France committed to governmental machineries. tie up with Indian defence firms for joint production and research on new weapon systems. New Delhi and Pillars of Indo-French Strategic Partnership Paris had also agreed to facilitate Government to Defence and Security cooperation: Defence Government arms sales as well as competitive bidding- cooperation is the most visible manifestation of Indo- based commercial sales. French Strategic Partnership. In the initial decades of Independence, India relied upon France for arms sales France arms sales to India increased to meet shortfalls in its military inventories. Though considerably in the 2000s as France delivered 10 Mirage Paris promptly responded to Indian requests, for 2000H and Mirage 2000TH variants of fighter jets. instance by supplying mountain kits to Indian troops in Another major deal of $3 billion for six Scorpene 1948 war against Pakistan, in later years its position Submarines was signed in 2005 for strengthening became ambivalent due to Cold War politics. France India’s undersea capabilities24. The French did not assist India in the 1962 war against China, manufacturer has committed to locally procure various although it did condemn Beijing’s aggression20. India’s key parts such as missile launcher, torpedoes, modern criticism of French reluctance to give up colonial sonar detection equipment by collaborating with Indian possessions in Asia (Vietnam for instance) and Africa shipyards. In 2016, a landmark deal for supply of 36 (Algeria for instance) did not go well with Paris21. France Rafale Multi-Role Combat Aircrafts, valued at 7.8 billion

Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment 139 euros, was concluded25. These advanced fighter jets government body that prevents money laundering and will replace India’s aged Mig-21 fighter fleet and will terrorist financing, enabling India’s counterterrorism significantly boost India’s air power. Additionally, sub- efforts27. systems for the jets, including Meteor Missiles, are to be sourced domestically strengthening Indian defence Maritime security and China’s growing industry26. French company Dassault and Indian foothold in the IOR is another cause of concern company Reliance Defence and Engineering Limited between India and France that has united the two. Given have formed a Joint Venture in this regard. India and its large overseas territories in the IOR (Islands of France have initiated joint military exercises across all Mayotte, Reunion Islands and the scattered islands), three wings - Army Exercises named Shakti, Naval and significant maritime trade linkages, France has a Exercises named Varuna and Air Force Exercises named keen stake in the security of IOR28. Both India and Garuda. These exercises help in exchange of defence France seek multilateral cooperation to tackle diverse doctrines and facilitate interoperability amongst forces. challenges of piracy, ensuring secure Sea Lanes of Recently in 2016, Indian and French troops conducted Communications (SLOCs) and enhancing joint joint land exercise in Rajasthan with special focus on maritime patrolling. France is a dialogue partner in the counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. By Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation conducting joint exercises both Indian and French (IOR-ARC) which unites littoral states and navies for troops mutually benefit from each-other’s rich combat maritime cooperation. France has a naval base in Djibouti and non-combat operational experiences. and recently China has also opened its naval base there trying to gain foothold over the region at the expense In the aftermath of 9/11 terrorist attacks, of western powers. India’s growing maritime prowess counter-terrorism has become a key agenda for Indo- has been acknowledged by France and this area holds French cooperation. A Joint Working Group on promising future for cooperation at strategic level. Counter-Terrorism was constituted for having a comprehensive dialogue on counter terrorism. France Cooperation in Civil Nuclear Energy has agreed to give extensive support to India on counter Indo-French cooperation in civil nuclear domain was terrorism in the form of intelligence and information established in the early 1980s and has gained much sharing, exchange of personnel and training and legal momentum since the Strategic Partnership. For years, extradition. France has built a strong and effective India’s opposition to NPT regime had prevented nuclear counter terrorism system over the years, involving high commerce with western powers although many of them tech gadgetry and organised police mechanism for like France had expressed interest in doing so. French countering terrorist activities. India is keen in obtaining collaboration in civil nuclear energy started in early advanced equipment and operational systems to enhance 1980s when United States cut off the supply of enriched efficiency of its anti-terrorists units. In 2016, the Indo- uranium to Tarapur nuclear power plant after India’s French Joint Statement explicitly mentioned systematic first nuclear tests in 1974. Along with Russia and China, bilateral cooperation on counter-terrorism. A significant France was the only European states that supplied aspect of French support to Indian government on uranium fuel to India for its first atomic power station29. terrorism is that France explicitly condemns Pakistan- based Islamist terror networks for global terror spread Although, India’s nuclear tests did not lead to endorsing India’s long held position. Both states have subsequent weaponisation, the sanctions imposed at also endorsed several multilateral initiatives to contain the behest of the US and its allies obstructed India’s terrorism. India’s Comprehensive Convention on indigenous nuclear industry from accessing nuclear Terrorism and France’s Convention on Suppressing technology. In the early 1990s, the question of India’s Financing of Terrorism have been proposed at the access to CTBT, FMCT and extension of NPT came United Nations to enforce a global anti-terrorism up for negotiations, and France softened it’s stance regime. The two conventions have several overlapping considering India’s non-proliferation record unlike other provisions brining the Indian and French positions alike powers like Pakistan and China whose record was not on terrorism. Paris also supported India’s entry into impeccable. In the backdrop of US-India Nuclear Deal Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter- in 2005, France supported the end of nuclear apartheid

140 World Focus November 2017 against India. Paris strongly endorsed India’s exemption was started early 1960s when India was its second from Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) regulations, largest partner after the US34. Starting from the 1964 influencing other European countries to support India’s the first agreement on space cooperation was signed claims. France also supported India’s accession to all between India and France covering the licence to four multilateral export control regimes, namely, the produce rockets, namely Sud-Aviation’s Belier and NSG, The Australian Group, Missile Technology Control Centaure. France also provided technical assistance for Regime (MTCR) and the Wassenar Arrangement building the Sriharikota launch pad and transferred enabling it to have full access to dual-use technologies rocket propulsion technologies to India. Until now, and materials30. around fifty French technology based indigenous rockets has been launched from the Thumba Equatorial In 2008, following the NSG exemption, France Rocket Launching Station (TERLS) that has became the first country to enter into a civil nuclear contributed significantly in the foundational agreement with India on a full range of cooperation – development of India’s space programme35. including fuel supplies and technology transfer. The agreement also called for cooperation in ancillary areas In 1972 Indo-French Joint Commission for like nuclear safety, waste management and joint Space Research was established by Indian Space research and training activities31. Research Organisation (ISRO) and CNES that ventured the possibilities of developing both satellites and satellite In 2010, France President Nicholas Sarkozy launch vehicles. Since then, ISRO and CNES have been concluded an agreement to construct two European conducting various joint space projects such as Pressurised Reactors (EPR) of 1650 MW each in establishing satellite communication networks, weather Jaitapur at a cost of about $ 9.5 billion. The pact included forecast systems, oceanography and disaster new provisions related to the safeguarding of Intellectual management. The Indo-French Space cooperation Property Rights, protection of the information and gained a major boost with the establishment of strategic prohibition on exchange of information in radioactive partnership since 1998 where collaboration in space waste management32. However, due to some science and research was mentioned as prioritized complexities between India’s nuclear industry NPCIL objective. Further, the signing of ‘Framework and French counterpart AREVA combined with the Agreement’ enlarged the scope of this cooperation in pressure created by local environmentalists groups and 2008 to include infrastructure development for the civil society about nuclear calamity and related safety satellite missions, setting-up of combined training concerns, the nuclear power plant could not yet take programmes, exchange of academic expertise and off. Both New Delhi and Paris have been engaging in scientific knowledge. Notably, India and France have several rounds of talks to resolve underlying successfully accomplished two satellite missions complexities. However in 2016, another Memorandum MeghaTropiques and SARAL mission in 2011 and 2013 of Understanding (MoU) was signed to expand the respectively. Megha Tropiques was designed for reactor base to six EPR reactors at Jaitapur site. The understanding weather and associated energy moisture 10GW capacity reactors will be made by the joint in the tropical regions while SARAL meant for collaboration of NPCIL and EDF (Elecricite de France), oceanographic studies, marine meteorology and climate contributing significantly to ‘Make in India’ initiative33. monitoring36. Further, in 2014 two earth observation The Indian leadership has assured France that complex satellites Spot 6 and Spot 7 have launched in issues related to nuclear liability will be resolved in due collaboration with France. course of time and environmental concerns will be addressed on higher priority. The 2015 summit talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Francois Hollande set Space Cooperation and Research another roadmap for future space cooperation by France and India have a rich history of collaboration in including Planetary Mars Orbitar Mission (MOM) and space technology and applications spanning for five other deep space projects. It is evident that both New decades. India’s collaboration with the French space Delhi and Paris are committed to carry space agency, Centre National de Etudes Spatiales (CNES), cooperation and research into new frontiers.

Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment 141 Trade and Commerce the current bilateral trade. Nevertheless, unlike other Indo-French economic relations in the Cold War period European majors like Germany, and UK the bilateral were limited owing to India’s inward-looking economy. trade between India and France is lagging behind. The liberalisation drive since 1991 has since opened up Greater efforts are required from both sides to increase doors for greater foreign trade and commercial linkages. their bilateral trade and commerce. Many of foreign Appreciating India’s economic reforms President investments and trade have focused on defence and Chirac expressed that “France, the world’s fourth civil aviation sector and there is need diversify economic largest economy is eager to reinforce its industrial, trade relations. In 2013, during President Hollande visit to and financial linkages with modern, creative and India, the two sides decided and stressed to promote a liberating India”37. With their Strategic Partnership, Balanced and Free Trade agreement between India and trade, commerce and business relations has taken centre the European Union. France has actively supported stage. The Indo-French Initiative Forum setup in July India’s accession to free trade agreement with the EU. 1998 is a high-level non-governmental actors’ In this pretext, India and France concluded the Double organisation consisting of industrialists, business Taxation Avoidance Agreement and have signed several houses, economists and academicians. The forum MoUs for infrastructure development like high speed played a key role in increasing bilateral investments rail and tourism43. The latest engagement in the area of through the network of French Chamber of Commerce renewable energy especially the International Solar and Industry and Indian Chamber of Commerce and Alliance brings renewed focus on energy conservation. Industry. Major focus areas included infrastructure French collaboration in India’s ‘smart cities’ development, energy, information technology, development will significantly add to the trade volumes agriculture and water management. The Indo-French in the coming years. CEOs Forum, established in 2009, provided another venue to facilitate cross-border corporate investments, People to People Connectivity mergers and acquisitions38. France and India share long historical and cultural ties. The commonality of democratic traditions and values These economic platforms have significantly – secularism, rule of law, civil and political liberties – helped to increase the bilateral trade. Currently, the bring France and Indian peoples together. French lasting bilateral trade in goods has reached 8.5 billion euros culture in erstwhile colonial possessions like and trade in services at 3.5 billion euros (both figures Pondicherry represents these civilizational ties. French for the year 2016)39. This is significant increase since President Francois Hollande admired the cultural the conclusion of Strategic Partnership where the linkages between India and France and stressed that bilateral trade barely crossed 1 billion euros (1998 both countries viewed “culture as an inestimable figures)40. Notably, since late 2000s, India has had trade treasure, not as a commercial good”44. In 2010, both surplus with France, given its strong export-oriented countries took initiatives to promote cultural ties by focus. The successive economic dialogue has brought facilitating greater tourism and funding for cultural many French companies starting operations in India. activities. A Franco-Indian Academy for Culture and Currently, around 750 French companies have Indian Cultural Centre in Paris is soon to be functional operational presence, including their subsidiaries, to promote cultural ties. Expansion of educational creating employment opportunities for around 3 lakh cooperation is another area of priority in the Indo- Indians41. France is also the 9th largest investor in India, French strategic partnership. In today’s age of with cumulative FDI standing at 5.6 billion euros. On knowledge economy India and France have agreed to the other side, around 75 Indian companies have promote higher education through university operational presence in France with total stock of Indian cooperation covering the whole range of academic fields FDI in France standing at 1 billion euros. India is also such as engineering sciences, finance, business France’s 30th largest investor and Indian investments management, and social sciences and have established are consistently increasing in recent past42. many Joint Centres of Excellence/research laboratories. In the past five years, the number of Indian students Notwithstanding, the eurozone crisis, the studying in France has increased substantially. Two French leadership reiterated their commitment to double major initiatives that have put forward by French

142 World Focus November 2017 government to increase students mobility are- to fascination with the US. India shares strong ties with intensify and expand inter-university agreements and the US and have deeper cooperation in the vital areas increase scholarships programme. In 2016, the number of economy, nuclear energy, defence and security. of Indian students studying in France has increased France concerns that India overlooks its relationship upto 4200, more than double since the last decade. with Paris due to its inclination towards the US48. While Both countries further intend to increase the number it is unrealistic for India to denounce its ties with the of Indian students for higher education in France by great power, India’s relationship with the US is not at 10,000 by 202045. In 2010, France agreed to provide the expense of any other major powers. Similarly, France technical and expertise sharing in development of IITs cannot denounce its connection with China while and also establish teaching and research collaboration valuing its reputed partnership with India. The mutual by sending experts and faculty members. trust and broader understanding towards each-other has remained key driving force of their relationship in The 2013 Indo-French Joint Agreement the past. Constant dialogue is needed in developing Cooperation in the field of research states that leaders common approach to realise their mutual interests. from both sides are agreed to encourage people-to- people contact through, inter alia easing mobility, human Another impediment to growing Indo-French exchanges and promoting education, science and cooperation is the lack of clarity on emerging strategic cultural cooperation46. A Letter of Intent between India issues that France and India are deliberating. Both states and France was signed to intensify cooperation in the have shown interest in developing joint military doctrines higher education and research. Approximately 400 but have not shown any clear path as to how would partnerships have been signed in higher education they pursue such complex security matters particularly between Indian and French institutions. Language and in realising their interests in the wider Asia-Pacific visa barriers have lowered to promote and facilitate region. The numerous challenges in West Asia – student exchanges47. France also endorses India to religious fundamentalism, sectarian strife etc – have integrate with various European projects on higher not yielded to common understanding between India education and research. and France49. Maintaining stability in the region is crucial for both India and France as they have huge energy Future Prospects and security interests which require greater coordination Despite the broader cooperation in diverse areas, there between the two at bilateral and multilateral levels. are several unresolved issues which constraint India Besides, though both India and France have common and France to realise their full potential. The future security concerns in the region they lack coordination prospects of their bilateral relations lies much on building at the micro-level such as capacity building and training consensus over such issues. New Delhi often resent of military personnel and sharing of maritime Paris’ greater rapprochement with China at the expense intelligence. The procedural hassles and bureaucratic of India. The French-China trade is sharply larger than delays is another cause of concern between India and Indo-French and thus Paris may consider giving Beijing France. India and France have large bureaucratic more priority than to India. Nevertheless, Indian structures which take a long time to complete the economy is expected to consistently catch-up with necessary processes for realising the projects. China and the Indian leadership must convince France Corruption in defence purchases in India has frequently to treat them on equal footing. created political controversies and hindered India’s defence programme at several occasions. For instance, Nevertheless, France sees India as strong the Scorpene submarine defence purchase was stained stabiliser in South Asia. China’s growing expansionism by irregularities and corruption scandals50. Thus, lack in the Asia-Pacific region has been a cause of concern of transparency at bureaucratic and political levels from to French interests in the IOR and has motivated Paris both sides is a major issue that needs to be resolved. to seek greater cooperation with India. Their mutual Additionally, the high costs of French armaments needs and concerns will continue to drive their procurement is also cause of contestation raised by partnership in future as well. French partial Indian leaders on many occasions. Being a developing discontentment also arises from India’s growing country with defence expenditure constituting only

Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment 143 around 3% of the GDP, India is reluctant to spend more for long lasting cooperation. India and France still has and look towards other western countries for cheaper a lot of untapped potential in their relationship. defence products, thus French defence supplies to India faces increasing competition51. Conclusion Indo-French relations have progressively matured and India and France has shown greater transformed over the last few years particularly after commitment and political will to resolve these the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of strategic constraints and further bilateral ties. The Indo-French partnership has intensified and broadened the scope of relationship has gained all round progress over the past cooperation encompassing defence, trade, security and two decades in the diverse areas of nuclear energy, other areas between the two countries. Throughout security and defence, education and culture and trade the 1990s France noticed India’s evolution from a and economy. The regular annual dialogue between the distance in order to grasp its full potential. Owing to two helped in developing a greater understanding on major shifts in India’s foreign policy and with its common regional and global issues. The increased growing economic and military prowess, the French diplomatic engagement in the hitherto untouched areas leadership recognised that India is a major emerging such as maritime security, renewable energy and power and a new significant player at world scene. sustainable development has further deepened the India’s aspiration to become major power has been relationship between the two. amply supported by France as both India and France share vision of multi-polar world order and oppose US’ Despite the above mentioned issues, the hegemonic dominance. prospects for Indo-French relations are still good and advantageous for both the parties. India’s rising power The shared values of democracy, rule of law, status and its regional security concerns needs robust freedom of expression have been key driving force of defence structure with advanced technology. India’s their long-standing cooperation. Since 1998 Indo- reliability on the West for defence equipments and French bilateral relationship has been institutionalised, particularly its collaboration with France will become both countries have set-up various committees, forums, even deeper in the years to come. Owing to French working groups at both government and bureaucratic strong scientific and technological expertise there is level. The regular dialogue between the two has allowed tremendous scope for its market expansion in Asian both India and France to address and improve their region including India. The common security concerns understanding on regional and global security concerns. such as establishing safer environment in South Asia and Asia-Pacific region motivate both the states for In the area of defence and security, the deeper cooperation. France being a permanent member relationship between France and India has come a long of the UNSC and also key member of the EU and NATO way from being the buyer-seller to trusted and equal holds strong power status. India considers all these partners who have common regional and global security factors when it engages with France. India perceives concerns. The joint military exercises, defence its cooperation with France as a window to the West. technology transfer and joint manufacturing of weapon The comprehensive partnership with France will also systems signals their expanding defence ties. Also, their facilitate cooperation with the EU as whole and with wide-ranging security cooperation including counter individual member states. On the other side, France terrorism, fight against the trafficking of illegal drugs, also recognises India’s growing power potential and maritime security cooperation, concerns towards keen to enhance cooperation with India to realise its nuclear proliferation and signifies their commitment wider interests. Both perceive each other as a pole of towards a more peaceful and stable international power in a world which they perceive as increasingly environment. In the area of energy, scientific multipolar and are committed to challenge single power cooperation and space research, France and India have dominance. In their quest towards multipolarity both held the record of long years of cooperation which Paris and New Delhi support the politics of inclusion goes back to as early as 1970s. France is one of the and empowerment of multilateral forum like the UN. early supporters of India’s civil nuclear drive. It These convergences of interests push both countries remained standing steadfastly beside India when every

144 World Focus November 2017 tnership”, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. other Western powers were sceptical and denounced 11 Vederine Hubert (2000) in Racine, Jean-Luc (2002), “The Indo- French Strategic Dialogue: Bilateralism India’s nuclear power programme. Apart from and World Perceptions, Journal of Strategic Studies 25(4): 157-191. supplying nuclear technology and fuel to India, France 12 Roger, Constance (2007), “Indo-French Defence Cooperation Friends in need or Friends Indeed?”, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. also supports its membership to various nuclear export 13 Mohan, C. Raja (2006), “India’s New Foreign Policy Strategy”, China Reform Forum and the Carniegie Endowment for International Peace, Beijing. regimes such as NSG. India’s increasing demand for 14 Hindustan Times (2017) “India is world’s largest arms importer: SIPRI” February 20 2017, https:/ renewable energy particularly solar power generation /www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-is-world-s-largest-arms-importer—sipri-/story-Ahi6LhqR7 WcZStOyDulRKL.html asks for enhanced cooperation from France which has 15 Racine, Jean-Luc (2002), “The Indo- French Strategic Dialogue: Bilateralism and World Perceptions, Journal of Strategic Studies 25(4): 15 ample technical expertise in this area. Their scientific 7-191 16 Panda, Ankit (2013), “why Does India Have So Many ‘Strategic Partners’ and No Allies?”, The cooperation particularly in the space sector has reached Diplomat, November 23, 2013, URL: https://www.thediplomat.com/2013/11/why-does-india-have- so-many-strategic -partners-and-no-allies/ to new heights over the past two decades with 17 Racine, Jean-Luc (2002), “The Indo- French Strategic Dialogue: Bilateralism and World Perceptions, successful conduct of several joint satellite projects Journal of Strategic Studies 25(4): 157-191. 18Embassy of India, Paris (2017), “Bilateral Brief on India-France Relations”, URL:https:// and space programmes. Besides these strategic areas, www.ambinde.fr/new-bilateral-relations/indo-french-relations 19 Ibid. educational and cultural relations are also expanding 20 Arpi, Claude (2008), “Indo-French Friendship to Partnership”, Indian Defence Review, vol. 23 (1) 21 Gupta, Sanjay (2009), “Indo-French Relations in the Post-Cold Period: Transformation from Commercial from both sides. Though, trade and commerce has to Strategic Partnership, The Indian Journal of Political Science’ vol.LXX (4), 1179-11 been below expectations but it is gradually picking up. 22 Roger, Constance (2007), “Indo-French Defence Cooperation Friends in need or Friends Indeed?“ Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. The recent MoUs signed by the two countries in sectors 23 French Embassy (2005), New Delhi, “Defence Cooperation Agreement between India and France” issued on 12 September 2005. URL:http://www.ambafrance.in.org/IMG/pdf/defence_cooperation_ like urban development, sanitation, infrastructure agreement _english .pdf?9496/4e2547f0fd03011f964463864607dc2acedc9238 24 Arpi, Claude (2008), “Indo-French Friendship to Partnership”, Indian Defence Review, vol. 23 (1) development including railways, water supply 25 Pubby, Manu (2016), “India, France ink deal for 36 Rafale Fighter Jet”, The Economic Times, September 24, 2016 URL: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-france-ink-deal- management and urban transport shows determined for-36-rafale-fighter-jets/articleshow/54478473.cms efforts to build more robust business and commercial 26Ibid. 27Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (2016), “India-France Joint Statement on Counter linkages. Both Paris and New Delhi emphasise that Terrorism”, issued on January 25, 2016, URL:http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/ 26295 IndiaFrance _Joint_Statement_on_Counter_Terrorism_on_the_occasio strong bilateral cooperation is indispensable in the n_of_the_State_Visit_of_President_Francois_Hollande_ of_the_French_Republic_to_India_Jan 28 Sood, Rakesh, “Deepening the French Connection” interdependent global economy. Both countries , The Hindu, February 1, 2016. 29 Petit, Philippe (1994), “Indo-French Relations: A French Perspective” in Dipankar Banerjee (ed.), leaderships have expressed deeper political commitment Security in the New World Order an Indo-French Dialogue, New Delhi: Institute for Defence Studies to channelize bilateral energies and resources in attaining and Analysis. 30 Kumar, Sanjay (2013), “France and India Deepen Ties”, The Diplomat, February 18, 2013. common objectives. While India’s rising power status, 31 Arpi, Calude (2012), “Indo-French Relations Under President Hollande”, Indian Defence Review, vol. 27 (3). in both economic and military domains, has provided 32 French Embassy, New Delhi (2013), “Bilateral Civil Nuclear Cooperation”, modified on August 8, 2013 huge opportunities to French economy, Paris’ standing URL: https://in.ambafrance.org/Bilateral-Civilian-Nuclear,7474 URL:http://www.mea.gov.in/ in multilateral groupings like UNSC is beneficial for bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/26297/IndiaFrance+Joint+ Statement+on+the+occasion+ of+the+State+Visit+of+President+ Francois+ Hollande New Delhi to play more active role in international +of+the+French+Republic+to+India+January+25+2016 34 Lele, Ajey (2015), “Space collaboration between India and France- towards a new era”, IFRI Centre politics. The Indo-French Strategic Partnership has for Asian Studies. 35 Ibid precisely facilitated this mutual understanding and gains 36 Rao, Radhakrishna (2016), “Expanding frontiers of Indo-French Space Cooperation“, Centre for Land and Warfare Studies. and is likely to promising future in realising shared 37 Chirac, Jacques (1998), “India and France a Partnership for the Twenty First Century”, Speech given outcomes. on 25 January, 1998 at Vigyan Bhavan: New Delhi. 38 Chhibber, Bharti (2013), “India-France Relations: Tremendous Scope Ahead”, Mainstream LI(10). 39 Embassy of India, Paris (2017), “Bilateral Brief on India-France Relations”, URL:https:// www.ambinde.fr/new-bilateral-relations/indo-french-relations Endnotes 40 Ibid. 1 Chirac, Jacques (1998), “India and France a Partnership for the Twenty First Century”, Speech given 41 Indian Embassy, Paris (2017), “India-France Economic and Commercial Relations” as per July 21, on 25 January, 1998 at Vigyan Bhavan: New Delhi. 2017, URL: http://www.ambinde.fr/economic-and-commerce/india-france-relations/india-france- 2Gupta, Sanjay (2009), The Changing Patterns of Indo-French Relations: From Cold War Estrangements commercial-relations to Strategic Partnership in the Twenty First Century, Macmillan: French Politics 7(3/4): 243-262. 42 Ibid. 3Ibid. 43 Embassy of India, Paris (2017), “Bilateral Brief on India-France Relations”, URL:https:// 4 Arpi, Claude (2008), “Indo-French Friendship to Partnership”, Indian Defence Review, vol. 23 (1) www.ambinde.fr/new-bilateral-relations/indo-french-relations 5 Racine, Jean-Luc (2002), “The Indo- French Strategic Dialogue: Bilateralism and World Perceptions, 44 Hollande, Francois (2013), “Statement on Indo-French Relations” Speech given on 14 February Journal of Strategic Studies 25(4): 157-191 2013 at Hyderabad House: New Delhi. 6Embassy of India, Paris (2017), “Bilateral Brief on India-France Relations”, URL:https:// 45 French embassy (2017), “Study in France”, March 2017, URL:https://in.ambafrance.org/Study-in- www.ambinde.fr/new-bilateral-relations/indo-french-relations. France-12461 7 Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (2016), “India-France Joint Statement on the 46 French Embassy (2013), New Delhi, “Indo-French University Cooperation”, issued on 07 November Occasion of the State Visit of President Francois Hollande of the French Republic to India“, January 2013, URL: http://ambafrance-in.org/University-cooperation,6876 25, 2016, URL:http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/26297/IndiaFrance_Joint 47 Ministry of External Affairs (2013b), Government of India, “A Letter of Intent between India and _Statement_ on _ the_occasion_of_the_State_ Visit_of_President_Francois_Hollande_of_the France to intensify cooperation in the higher education and research” issued on 14 February 2013(b),URL: _French_Republic_to_India_January_25_2016 http://mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/21173/List+of+Documents+signed +during+the+State 8 Ibid. +Visit+of+President+of+France+to+Indian 9 The GDP data has been compiled with World Bank Data. See, Alex Gray (2017) “The world’s 10 48 Roger, Constance (2007), “Indo-French Defence Cooperation Friends in need or Friends Indeed?” biggest economies in 2017" World Economic Forum, 9th March 2017, https://www.weforum.org/ Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. 2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in2017 . Also see, Darren Boyle (2017) “India will overtake the 49 Experts Policy Dialogue on Indo-French Relations (2013), Observer Research Foundation, URL: US to become the world’s second biggest economy by 2050" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ http://www.orfonline.org/research/experts-policy-dialogue-on-india-france-relations/ article-4199660/India-overtake-world-s-second-largest-economy.html 50 Outlook (2006), “Sting of the Scorpene”, Cover Story, 10 July 2006, URL: http:// 10 Experts Policy Dialogue on Indo-French Relations (2013), Observer Research Foundation, URL: www.outlookindia.com/article/Sting-Of-The-Scorpene/231796 http://www.orfonline.org/research/experts-policy-dialogue-on-india-france-relations/, Also see, Rault, 51 Racine, Jean-Luc (2002), “The Indo- French Strategic Dialogue: Bilateralism and World Perceptions, Yves-Marie (2013), “Decoding the Strategic Par Journal of Strategic Studies 25(4): 157-191. Twenty Years of Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Critical Assessment 145 Contributor’s Profile Prof. R. G. Gidadhubli Professor and Former Director, Center for Central Eurasian Studies, University Of Mumbai Prof. P. Lazarus Samraj Professor, Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, Puducherry Vineeth Thomas Doctoral Fellow, Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, Puducherry Prof. Snehalata Panda Former Emeritus Professor, Deptt. of Political Science, Berhampur University, Berhampur, Odisha Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Central University of South Bihar, Gaya (Bihar) G. Kishore Babu Editor, World Focus Sudhir Kumar Dara PhD Scholar, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Sudhir Kumar Garhwal PhD Scholar, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Ambrish Dhaka Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Ranjana Mishra HOD History, SMDSMC, SNDT Women’s University, Mumbai Dr. Deepak Yadav Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Kalindi College, University of Delhi Dr. Mohor Chakraborty Assistant Professor in Political Science, South Calcutta Girls’ College (Aff. to Calcutta University), Kolkata Dr. Rajesh Kumar Assistant Professor of Political Science at School of Social Sciences, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, Punjab Dr. Saleem Ahmad Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science, School of Humanities & Social Sciences (SHSS), Galgotias University, Greater Noida (U.P.) Dr. Arindam Roy Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, The University of Burdwan, Burdwan (West Bengal) Dr. Pitam Ghosh Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Bangabasi Evening College, University of Calcutta Dr. Suneel Kumar Assistant Professor, Department of Strategic and Regional Studies, University of Jammu, Jammu, J & K Dr. Debasish Nandy Assistant Professor , Department of Political Science, Kanchrapara College (University of Kalyani), 24-Parganas(N), W.B. Dr. Shreesh K. Pathak Teaches Political Science and International Relations in Galgotias University, Greater Noida, (U.P.) Atreyee Mitra Research Scholar, Presidency University, Kolkata, W.B. Shameer M PhD Candidate, Diplomacy and Disarmament, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, SIS, JNU, New Delhi Mahfooz Alam Research Scholar, SAS/SIS/JNU Pfokrelo Kapesa Doctoral Candidate at the Diplomacy and Disarmament Division, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, JNU, New Delhi Swati PhD Scholar, Centre for European Studies, JNU, New Delhi 146 World Focus November 2017 World Focus: 2010-2017

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