Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed

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Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed Technical Memorandum No. 1 Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study, California Lower Colorado Region U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation August 2013 Mission Statements The mission of the Department of the Interior is to protect and provide access to our Nation’s natural and cultural heritage and honor our trust responsibilities to Indian Tribes and our commitments to island communities. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION Water and Environmental Resources Division (86-68200) Water Resources Planning and Operations Support Group (86-68210) Technical Services Center, Denver, Colorado Technical Memorandum No. 86-68210-2013-02 Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study, California Lower Colorado Region Prepared by: Kristine Blickenstaff, Hydraulic Engineer Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Hydrologic Engineer Ian Ferguson, Hydrologic Engineer Laura Condon, Hydrologic Engineer Tom Pruitt, Civil Engineer Peer reviewed by: Marketa Elsner, Hydrologic Engineer i This page intentionally left blank. ii Contents Page Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 1 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Purpose, Scope, and Objective of Study .................................................... 5 1.1.1 Location and Description of Study Area ......................................... 5 1.2 Summary of Previous and Current Studies ................................................ 7 1.2.1 Historical Trends ............................................................................... 7 1.2.2 Climate Projections ........................................................................... 9 1.2.3 Hydrological Projections .................................................................. 9 1.2.4 Climate Change Impacts ................................................................. 10 1.3 Identification of Interrelated Activities .................................................... 10 1.3.1 Federal – WaterSMART ................................................................. 10 1.3.2 State – Proposition 84 and IRWM .................................................. 11 1.3.3 Local – OWOW .............................................................................. 11 2.1 Climate Projections .................................................................................. 12 2.2 Hydrology Models for the Santa Ana River Watershed .......................... 13 2.2.1 Surface Water .................................................................................. 13 2.2.2 Groundwater ................................................................................... 18 Development of Groundwater Model Inputs ...................................... 23 Historical Input Data (1990-2009) ...................................................... 23 Groundwater Elevation (ht) ........................................................... 23 Precipitation (Pt) ........................................................................... 25 Evaporative Demand (Et) .............................................................. 25 Streamflow (Qt) ............................................................................. 25 Municipal and Industrial Demand (Mt) ........................................ 27 Agricultural Demand (At) ............................................................. 27 Trans-basin Imported Water (It) ................................................... 27 Exogenous Variable (Xt) ............................................................... 27 Projected (Future) Input Data (2010-2099) ........................................ 28 Precipitation (Pt) ........................................................................... 28 Evaporative Demand (Et) .............................................................. 28 Streamflow (Qt) ............................................................................. 28 Municipal and Industrial Demand (Mt) ........................................ 28 Agricultural Demand (At) ............................................................. 29 Trans-basin Imported Water (It) ................................................... 29 Exogenous Variable (Xt) ............................................................... 29 3.0 Water Supply and Demand Projections ..................................................... 30 3.1 Water Supply ........................................................................................... 30 3.1.1 Hydroclimate Projections ................................................................ 30 Timeseries Plots .................................................................................. 30 Spatial Plots ........................................................................................ 32 3.1.2 Impacts on Runoff Annual and Seasonal Cycles ............................ 35 3.1.3 Groundwater Impacts ...................................................................... 38 iii 3.2 Water Demands ........................................................................................ 43 3.2.1 Water Demand Projections ............................................................. 43 3.3 Supply and Demand Summary ................................................................ 45 4.0 Decision Support and Impact Assessment ................................................. 46 4.1 Impacts on Recreation in Lake Elsinore .................................................. 46 4.1.1 Background ..................................................................................... 46 4.1.2 Methodology ................................................................................... 47 4.1.3 Results ............................................................................................. 47 4.2 Alpine Climate Impacts ........................................................................... 48 4.2.1 Background ..................................................................................... 48 4.2.2 Methodology ................................................................................... 49 4.2.3 Results ............................................................................................. 49 Recreation at Big Bear ........................................................................ 49 Jeffrey Pine Ecosystem ....................................................................... 51 4.3 Extreme Temperature Impacts ................................................................. 54 4.3.1 Background ..................................................................................... 54 4.3.2 Methodology ................................................................................... 54 4.3.3 Results ............................................................................................. 54 4.4 Flood Impacts ........................................................................................... 56 4.4.1 Background ..................................................................................... 56 4.4.2 Methodology ................................................................................... 58 4.4.3 Results ............................................................................................. 59 4.5 Sea Level Rise Impacts ............................................................................ 62 4.5.1 Background ..................................................................................... 62 4.5.2 Methodology ................................................................................... 62 4.5.3 Results ............................................................................................. 64 4.6 Decision Support and Impact Assessment Summary .............................. 66 5.0 Demand Management to Inform Adaptive Strategies ............................... 69 5.1 Background ............................................................................................... 69 5.2 Methods.................................................................................................... 70 5.3 Application ............................................................................................... 72 6.0 Uncertainties ................................................................................................. 75 6.1 Climate Projection Information ............................................................... 75 6.1.1 Global Climate Forcing................................................................... 75 6.1.2 Global Climate Simulations ............................................................ 76 6.1.3 Climate Projection Bias Correction ................................................ 76 6.1.4 Climate Projection Spatial Downscaling ........................................ 76 6.2 Assessing Hydrologic Impacts ................................................................. 77 6.2.1 Generating Weather Sequences Consistent with Climate Projections................................................................................................. 77 6.2.2 Natural Runoff Response ................................................................ 77 6.2.3 Hydrologic Modeling .....................................................................
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