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East Africa Financial Review OFFICIAL PARTNER: June 2015

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East Africa Financial Review OFFICIAL PARTNER: June 2015 East Africa Financial Review OFFICIAL PARTNER: June 2015 Practitioners of the craft of private banking PART I: KEY MARKET INDICATORS Burbidge Capital Limited Head Office: 4th Flr, Nivina Towers, Westlands Road, London Office: Key Africa & Global Equity Indices Performance Nairobi, Kenya i4 Albany, Piccadilly Tel: +254 (0) 20 2100 102 London, W1J 0AX Tel: +44 (0) 207 099 1452 Equity Index 2/01/2015 2/05/2015 31/05/2015 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD Uganda Office: [email protected] Suite FC6 NASI Index (KE) 162.89 173.20 162.13 -6.4% -0.5% 1st Floor, Crown House FTSE NSE Kenya 25 216.42 231.23 214.40 -7.3% -0.9% 4a Kampala Road, P.O . BOX 3331Kampala, Uganda. DSEI (TZ) 2,519.64 2,596.26 2,715.23 4.6% 7.8% TEL: + 256 (0) 794 476 967 UGSINDX 1,927.00 2,076.36 1,889.00 -9.0% -2.0% www.burbidgecapital.com NGSEINDEX 34,657.15 31,753.15 34,310.37 8.1% -1.0% EGX30 8,926.58 8,672.29 8,782.55 1.3% -1.6% CONTACTS OF THE EDITORIAL TEAM JALSH (SA) 49,770.60 54,440.43 52,270.86 -4.0% 5.0% S&P 500 2,058.90 2,085.51 2,107.39 1.0% 2.4% FTSE 100 6,566.09 6,960.63 6,984.43 0.3% 6.4% Key Africa & Global Currency Performance Edward Burbidge, CFA Chief Executive Officer Currency 2/01/2015 2/05/2015 31/05/2015 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD [email protected] KES / USD 90.52 94.51 97.74 -3.43% -7.98% TZS / USD 1,737.61 1,984.44 2,082.94 -4.96% -19.87% UGX / USD 2,783.96 2,995.00 3,054.93 -2.00% -9.73% ETB / USD 20.21 20.51 20.58 -0.34% -1.83% Vimal Parmar, CFA ZAR / USD 11.71 11.93 12.15 -1.84% -3.82% Head of Research (SSA) NGN / USD 183.21 199.00 199.05 -0.03% -8.65% [email protected] EGP / USD 7.15 7.63 7.63 -0.04% -6.69% GBP/USD 0.65 0.65 0.65 -0.27% -0.45% EUR / USD 0.83 0.90 0.91 -1.63% -9.26% Key Events & Press – East Africa Nicholas Kiprotich Carnivore prowls for customers with fast food outlet Head of IT & Social Media Treasury scraps controversial 5pc capital gains tax after rejection [email protected] NSE Index hits 10-month low as market loses KES 39bn Three more institutions eye IPO to raise capital – DSE Kenya attracts KES 115 billion in investment CBK raises interest rates to 10% to tame the dollar Interbank rates increase - Tanzania Gerald Njugi Uganda raises benchmark rate to 13pc Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance New interest in Uganda’s oil and gas investments [email protected] Ethiopia eyes bond trading in cautious capital markets opening US equity firm TPG ties up with Satya Capital for Africa investments Lello Halake "Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without Research Analyst strategy is the noise before defeat.“ - Sun Tzu [email protected] Advisory services: A corporate finance firm licensed by the Capital Markets Authority and a Originating and structuring Equity and Debt capital raising, IPOs, M & A licensed Nominated Advisor by the Nairobi Securities Exchange creating transactions, Strategic Options advisory, PE advisory and Independent Research long term advisory relationships & solutions across Eastern Africa. services. NAIROBI DAR-ES-SALAAM KAMPALA ADDIS ABABA KIGALI LONDON PART II: MONTHLY COMMENTARY A record month of deals already in June reflects increased regional acquisition, as well as continued strong economic growth rates in Eastern Africa. We note, with some satisfaction, the removal of the UK’s travel ban on some parts of Kenya and the visit of the US President to Kenya later in the month. This, combined with quite a weak shilling, may well translate into an improved tourism market in 2016 and likely well-earned returns for those brave enough to invest into the troubled Kenyan tourism sector over the last couple of years. The number of corporate deals more than doubled this month up from 7 deals recorded in the previous month. The financial services sector maintains the lead recording a total of 17 deals YTD with the manufacturing and oil & gas sectors completing the top 3 positions with 8 and 4 deals respectively. In private equity 2 investment deals (16 deals YTD) were announced in the banking and real estate sectors in Kenya. In M&A we saw a remarkable 8 deals (24 deals YTD) in the retail, beverage, IT and insurance sectors in Kenya and in the dairy and pharmaceutical sectors in Uganda. Both Ethiopia and Tanzania recorded 1 M&A deal apiece in the agribusiness and telecoms sectors respectively. BC’s pick of the month was Rwanda’s Crystal Telecom USD 41 million IPO which was oversubscribed by 123% as the company seeks to list its shares on the RSE in July. This was the country’s third IPO by a local company after Bralirwa and Bank of Kigali in 2010 and 2011 respectively and marks the second IPO in the EA region this year (see Deals on page 5). Weighed down by price declines on most top movers and sustained foreign exits, the NSEASI marked losses to close at 162.13 points, a 6.4% decline in the month of May (-0.5% YTD). The market observed increased net foreign outflows at USD 15.06m (previous month net outflows of USD 0.96m), heavy foreign exits were noted on banking counters and Safaricom. While ARM (USD 0.9m) and Bamburi cement (USD 1.9m) continued to attract foreign investor demand. Equity turnover rose to USD 221.1m (previous month USD 156.7m) with activity driven by large caps; Safaricom (USD 54.2m), KCB (45.2m), EABL (USD 32.1m). The counters recorded high single digit declines in the period. We anticipate the exemption of marketable securities from the 5% CGT cost to have a positive bearing on trading activity going forward, with the introduced securities transaction levy of 0.3% being relatively easier to execute. Edward Burbidge, CFA Chief Executive Officer, & BC Newsletter Team OTHER KEY MARKET INDICATORS Interest Rates Other Key Events & Press Country/Region Current Base Rate Previous Base Rate Longhorn to cross-list after subsidiaries make profit Central Bank of Kenya (Kenya) 10.00% 8.50% Jubilee registers 30pc business growth Bank of Uganda (Uganda) 13.00% 12.00% USD 60m Okayed for gas project in Tanzania Tanzania Postal bank to go public next year Bank of Tanzania (Tanzania) 7.58% 7.58% South African Reserve Bank (RSA) 5.75 % 5.75 % Central Bank of Nigeria (Nigeria) 13.00% 13.00% Central Bank of Egypt (Egypt) 8.75% 8.75% Bank of England (UK) 0.50 % 0.50 % Federal Reserve Bank (USA) 0.00% - 0.25% 0.00% - 0.25% European Central Bank (EU) 0.05 % 0.05 % Inflation and GDP growth Projected Inflation Rates Projected GDP Growth Country 2015 2016 2015. 2016 Kenya 5.1% 5.0% 6.9% 7.2% Uganda 4.9% 4.8% 5.4% 5.6% Tanzania 4.2% 4.5% 7.2% 7.1% Rwanda 2.9% 4.4% 7.0% 7.0% Burundi 5.0% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0% Ethiopia 6.8% 8.2% 8.6% 8.5% Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2015 2 EFG is the marketing name for EFG International and its subsidiaries. EFG International’s global private banking network includes offices in Zurich, Geneva, London, Channel Islands, Luxembourg, Monaco, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Taipei, Miami, Nassau, Grand Cayman, Bogotá and Montevideo. www.efginternational.com PART III: DEAL STATISTICS Total number of deals in East Africa - 2015 YTD1 30 24 25 20 16 15 10 6 No. ofdeals 4 3 5 0 PE deals M&A deals PE exits Private placements Corporate bonds (shares) Investment type Total number of deals per month in East Africa - 2015 YTD Jun 15 May 7 Apr 6 Month Mar 9 Feb 12 Jan 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Number of deals 2 Deal values (USD mn) in East Africa - 2015 YTD3 No. of deals per sector - 2015 YTD 3; 8% 4; 11% 1,000 895 2; 6% 900 2; 6% 800 599 700 545 600 8; 22% 500 400 231 300 165 17; 47% 200 56 100 39 - Oil & gas Hospitality Financial services M&A PE Share PE exit Corporate Rights IPO private bond issue Manufacturing Healthcare Real estate placement 1Based on deals as calculated by Burbidge Capital 2The top sectors which recorded the highest number of deals 3 Based on deal values disclosed to the public or as estimated by Burbidge Capital 4 Source: Burbidge Capital Research PART IV: SELECTED DEALS (1/2) Investment Date Buyer Seller Investment size Sector type Country Synopsis 27th May 2015 SunOpta Inc. / Selet Hulling PLC Agribusiness M&A Ethiopia Ontario-based SunOpta (NASDAQ: STKL) announced that its wholly Tradin Organic owned subsidiary Tradin Organic Agriculture BV has raised its stake Agriculture BV in Selet Hulling PLC, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 35 to 76%, effectively taking it over. Tradin Organic Agriculture B.V., part of the Global Ingredients segment, has enhanced its global sourcing capabilities with an increase in its ownership position in Selet Hulling PLC, a premier supplier of organic sesame. 2nd June 2015 Choppies Ukwala USD 10 million Retail M&A Kenya Botswana’s JSE-listed retail chain Choppies announced that it had Enterprises Ltd Supermarket reached an agreement to buy mid-tier Kenyan supermarket Ukwala for close to KES 1 billion.
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