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2015 in Perspective

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2015 in Perspective 5 ANNUAL EAST AFRICA FINANCIAL REVIEW 1 0 D E A L S | E Q U I T I E S | T R E N D S | E C O N O M I C S | F O R E C A S T S 2 Our Sponsoship Partners 2015 IN PERSPECTIVE 2015 Year in Review BC Deal of the Year London-based Africa focused investment firm Helios sold half its stake (12.223%) in NSE-listed lender Equity Bank to Edward Burbidge, CFA Norwegian investment firm Norfininvest AS - a joint venture investment company C H I E F E X E C U T I V E O F F I C E R between Norfund and NorFinance AS - for an undisclosed amount. Helios bought a 24.45% stake in Equity in 2007 It was another heady year of dealmaking, and if not for a public equity markets correction in the second half of the year, the total value of disclosed deals would have been for more than KES 11 billion (USD 120.2 million). significantly higher than last year, instead of in-line at $3.9bn. As the total number of deals decreased this means of course that the average deal size increased. This is no surprise, and is a trend that we expect to continue. 2015 in Numbers This year a lot will depend on the macro picture, which is a little confused at present (we hope you benefit from our research team’s economic outlook) but we expect the region to continue to be extremely attractive for investments – likely considerably more The largest corporate deal in EA attractive than the resources dependent regions of the continent. Please see below our in USDm thoughts on the likely deal activity. 845 PE and M&A in Brief There were 40 PE investments publicly announced in 2015, which was a 14.3% increase from the 35 deals in 2014. As we predicted, there has been an increase in the number The no. of disclosed M&A deals in EA of PE exits as first time funds mature to that stage of the cycle. A total of 11 PE exits 51 (>120% increase from 5 exits recorded in 2014) were witnessed in 2015, four of which were secondary buyouts. The value of PE investment deals announced in 2015 more than doubled what was recorded in 2014 with a value USD 1.44bn up from USD 678m. The average PE deal size was USD 46.5m up from USD 34.4m in 2014 representing a The no. of disclosed PE deals in EA 35.3% rise. This was in line with our forecast and we believe this growth can be 40 sustained going into 2016. The largest PE investment deal in 2015, which happens to be BC’s deal of the year, was the exit of London-based Africa focused investment firm Helios EB Investors LP from NSE-listed lender Equity Bank to Norwegian investment The increase in the firms Norfund and Norfinance AS (a joint venture investment company between number of PE exits in Norfund and Norwegian private investors) at USD 248 million for a 12.22% stake. Helios EA +120% further exited 5.58% and 2.44% stakes to Kenya’s and Uganda’s public provident funds for USD 92 million and USD 46.5 million respectively with the balance of 4.207% offloaded through the secondary market. Helios had acquired the 24.45% stake in Equity in 2007 for c. KES 11 billion (USD 120.2 million). The total no. of all disclosed corporate deals in EA In M&A a total of 51 deals were recorded across all sectors in EA in 2015 representing a 119 marginal increase (+6.3%) from 48 deals in 2014. However, the value of M&A deals reported dropped marginally in 2015 to USD 864m from USD 947m recorded in 2014 (-8.8% y/y) while the average M&A deal size was USD 33.3m which was a slight decrease The total value of all from USD 35.3m that was noted in 2014. The three leading sectors in M&A activity in disclosed corporate deals 2015 were the banking sector with 9 deals followed by manufacturing (7 deals) and in EA in USDm agribusiness (4 deals). As we predicted, the financial services sector (banking, insurance, 3,866 investment services) maintained the lead in the number of consolidations in the EA region with a record of 16 deals. We do not foresee a shift from this trend in 2016. In This Issue Key Market Indicators BC Economic Outlook 2016 2015 Deal Statistics Selected Deals Summary A N N U A L R E V I E W 2 0 1 5 | 0 1 Natural Resources & Energy 2015 was a low year for the natural resources sector in East Africa as investor interest decreased, with around half the number of deals announced compared to 2014. The number of deals reduced to 23 in 2015 with Kenya accounting for almost 50% of the total deals recorded in the sector. The oil and gas sector led the pack after it recorded 9 of the total deals in 2015 (14 in 2014). The oil sector headlined with exploration firms such as Africa Oil, Simba Energy and Pancontinental raising funds through private placement transactions to facilitate their projects in the region - as the low oil prices continued to engulf the sector. The largest transaction in the sector was Africa Oil’s farmout of half of its explorations As we licences in Kenya and two in Ethiopia to Maersk Oil for USD 845 million. The mining sector witnessed 7 deals in 2015 compared to 19 deals in 2014 (-63% y/y) predicted, mainly in the form of M&A, farm outs or private placements transactions. The largest transaction in this sector was Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) acquisition of a majority stake the financial (83.78%) in Allana Potash Corporation for USD 137 million in Ethiopia. The energy sector recorded an increase to 5 deals in 2015 compared to 3 in 2014 as services sector PE investments formed the majority of deals in this sector. MKOPA secured a total of USD 31.5 million in form debt and equity from a consortium of PE and VC investors in (banking, two separate transactions. The petroleum sector recorded the least number of transactions compared of all the natural resources subsectors although a notable development was Ethiopia and Djibouti’s agreement to construct a 550km refined insurance, petroleum products pipeline estimated to cost USD 1.55 billion linking the two countries. investment Listed Equities in Brief The Nairobi Securities Exchange experienced a sustained bear run with the NSE 20 services) recording a decline of 20.9% to close at 4040.75 points while the NASI registered a drop of 10.6% outperforming the MSCI Frontier Markets Index which fell by 12.6%. Regionally, the NSE performed poorly compared to the DSE All Share index and the USE All Share maintained the Index that fell 7.4% and 8.5% respectively. The bourse observed net foreign outflows of USD 6.6 million, a drop from last year’s net foreign inflows of USD 86.2 million as lead in the investors sought to mitigate against a weakening currency and fall in stock prices with about 15 companies issuing profit warnings. The bourse annual turnover fell to USD 2.0 bn from 2014’s USD 2.4 bn. The top losers were Transcentury (57.4%) and ADSS (82.6%) number of which were adversely affected by the downturn in the oil exploration sector. Notably the small- mid cap counters constituted the leading gainers in the year led by Sasini (52.1%), consolidations in Kenya re (23.2%) and NSE (20.7%). The first half,of the year witnessed successful capital raising through corporate bonds and rights issues before domestic borrowing activities by government provided a more attractive alternative through short dated bills in the the EA region second half during which the 91-day T-bills rate rose to a maximum of 22.0% in October. The NSE launched a REITS market with the listing of the Stanlib Fahari I-REIT offering with a record of investors more diversification options. The NSE expects to list two more REITS in the first quarter of 2016. 16 deals. 0 2 | A N N U A L R E V I E W 2 0 1 5 ‘Jeanne’. Made of 3,842 wine corks by Scott Gundersen. www.scottjamesgundersen.com Simplifying complexity Your intelligent filter. Seeking out quality; assembling the right solution for you. Practitioners of the craft of private banking EFG is the marketing name for EFG International and its subsidiaries. EFG International’s global private banking network includes offices in Zurich, Geneva, London, Channel Islands, Luxembourg, Monaco, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Taipei, Miami, Nassau, Grand Cayman, Bogotá and Montevideo. www.efginternational.com KEY MARKET INDICATORS Key Africa & Global Equity Indices Performance Equity Index 31-12-14 Year low Year high 31/12/2015 % Ch. y/y NSE 20 (KE) 5,112.65 3,829.91 5,499.64 4,040.75 -20.97% FTSE NSE Kenya 25 216.42 173.70 237.00 186.30 -13.92% DSEI (TZ) 2,519.64 2,291.27 2,850.15 2,334.00 -7.37% ALSIUG 1,927.00 1,924.69 2,098.00 1,764.00 -8.46% NGSEINDEX 34,657.15 26,476.17 35,843.39 28,642.25 -17.36% EGX 30 8,926.58 6,302.05 10,066.11 7,006.01 -21.52% JALSH (SA) 49,770.60 46,530.87 55,355.12 50,693.76 1.85% S&P 500 2,058.90 1,867.01 2,134.72 2,043.94 -0.73% FTSE 100 6,566.09 5,768.22 7,122.74 6,242.32 -4.93% Key Africa & Global Currency Performance Currency 31-12-14 31-12-15 % Ch.
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