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Quarterly Review a Publication of the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association ● Volume V, Issue 4, Q4 2009 December 2009

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Quarterly Review a Publication of the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association ● Volume V, Issue 4, Q4 2009 December 2009 Emerging Markets Private Equity Quarterly Review A Publication of the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association ● Volume V, Issue 4, Q4 2009 December 2009 Viewpoint In This Issue 2009 will go down as one of the most challenging years on record for the global private equity industry. But for PE in the emerging markets, although FEATURES challenging, 2009 will be also be remembered as the year that set up the long- term development of a stable asset class. 2009 in Perspective and This was the year that emerging markets PE survived intact, unlike earlier in Predictions for 2010 3 this decade when the industry almost disappeared from the map. While fund- raising plummeted in 2009, falling by 65% in the first three quarters compared to 2008, by year end capital raised will likely reach 2006 levels. By mid-2009, Agribusiness Private Equity: EM PE fundraising represented some 20% of global PE funds raised, com- The Fertile Sector 6 pared to just 5% in 2004. So while EM PE didn’t grow this year, it took a larger share of a shrinking global pie. Inaugural Private Equity in Africa Deal activity, unlike in the Western buyout space, continued in 2009 at a fairly Executive Summit—London 12 brisk pace. While investment amounts were down by 54% through Septem- ber, deal activity as measured by number of transactions was down only 26%, suggesting that fund managers took calculated risks and continued to invest 5th Annual PE Forum—London 15 in smaller—or, better yet, just cheaper—deals. 2nd Annual Global Private 2009 will also be remembered as the year when local industries began to take up the slack left by a cash-constrained Western institutional LP base. Equity Forum Beijing 16 China accelerated its effort to develop its own brand of private equity. From government-backed funds, to local LPs, to new fund structures, China is bet- NEwS ANd Data ting on the PE and VC industry as critical to its future economic development. As in China, there is a slowly growing base of domestic institutional capital Funds Launched & Closed 18 in many other emerging economies, including Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Mexico, Nigeria, and India. In India, although public pension funds are barred from investing in the asset class, several leading domestic fund man- EM PE Performance 20 agers still raised the lion’s share of their capital locally from banks, insurance companies and other institutions. Many of the Western global megafunds Member News 22 have been seen hunting for pension fund commitments in Peru and Colombia. So what’s the outlook for 2010? There is no question that fundraising from Notable EM PE Exits & IPOs 25 Western institutions will continue to be challenging until they see liquidity from their large buyout funds that represent the bulk of their PE exposure. Development finance institutions will continue, alongside local EM investors, EMPEA Members 26 to fill the financing gap and keep established, well-performing managers alive. And there will inevitably be market consolidation, as some funds are sim- ply unable to raise additional capital. But given the explosive growth of 2007 Featured Events 28 and 2008, pausing for breath, letting the dust settle, and seeing the strong emerge may be just the right recipe for the next stage of the development of the PE and VC industry in emerging markets. Sarah E. Alexander, President Emerging Markets Private Equity Association Emerging Markets Private Equity Association 1055 Thomas Jefferson St. NW, Suite 650, Washington DC 20007 Tel: +1.202.333.8171 www.empea.net About EMPEA The Emerging Markets Private Equity Asso- ciation (EMPEA) is a non-profit, independent, Executive Editor global industry association that promotes Sarah E. Alexander greater understanding of and a more favor- able climate for private equity and venture Editorial Director capital investing in the emerging markets of Jennifer Choi Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. Writing and Research Harrison Moskowitz EMPEA was founded in 2004 with the be- Nadiya Satyamurthy lief that private equity and venture capital can be critical drivers of economic growth Production in emerging markets while simultaneously Blue House generating strong returns for investors. www.bluehouse.us In support of its mission, EMPEA: © 2009 Emerging Markets Private Equity Association • Researches, analyzes and disseminates authoritative information on emerging All rights reserved. Emerging Markets Private Equity Quarterly Review is markets private equity; a publication of the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval • Convenes meetings and conferences system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, around the world to promote information photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the exchange between leading fund manag- Emerging Markets Private Equity Association. ers and institutional investors; Subscriptions • Offers professional development programs For subscription or single issue purchase, visit www.empea.net or email empea@ to enhance knowledge transfer; and, empea.net. Subscription for one year (4 issues) is US$495. EMPEA members receive the Emerging Markets Private Equity Quarterly Review for free. • Collaborates with stakeholders from across the globe. Advertising Opportunities The Emerging Markets Private Equity Quarterly Review offers readers an analytical and factual look at private equity investing in emerging markets. The Quarterly Review features include regional and country market analysis, an overview of current trends in the industry, benchmark data from Cambridge Associates, and guest articles from leading thinkers and practitioners. Become a Member Its readership comprises a broad array of private equity fund managers, The Emerging Markets Private Equity As- institutional investors, service providers, and other key stakeholders in the sociation is the only global body that rep- industry from more than 50 countries. resents the growing industry of emerging markets private equity. As a leading global Advertising opportunities are available for upcoming issues. For more player, EMPEA offers features that meet information, please contact Cristiane Nascimento, Communications and the needs of a broad range of institutions Marketing Manager, at [email protected] or +1.202.333.8171. active in emerging markets, including Gen- eral Partners (GPs), Limited Partners (LPs), EMPEA business associations, service providers, 1055 Thomas Jefferson Street NW, Suite 650 multilateral and academic institutions, and Washington, DC 20007 USA governmental bodies. Tel: +1.202.333.8171 • Fax: +1.202.333.3162 www.empea.net For more information on how to become a member visit www.empea.net or con- tact Kyoko Terada at [email protected] or +1.202.333.8171. 2 EM PE Quarterly Review Vol V Issue 4, Q4 2009 2009 in Perspective and Predictions for 2010 EMPEA solicited some of the industry’s leading practitioners for their reflections on 2009 and predictions for what lies ahead for emerging markets private equity. The following are a sampling of their views. 2009 Among the Toughest Years in Memory “The fundraising environment has begun to improve but I’m somewhat pessimistic because I expect distributions will Without question, 2009 has proven to be among the most difficult continue to fall below expectations. Private equity globally will have disappointing reported results for several more years, years for fundraising in recent memory. Through September 30th, which will compare unfavorably with improving results from 116 funds had raised US$19 billion versus US$55 billion in capital listed equities and fixed income.” raised by 193 funds during the same period in 2008 (See Exhibit —Tom Barry, President and CEO, Zephyr Management, L.P. 1). Whether LPs were constrained by lack of liquidity to recycle into new commitments, unexpectedly hitting PE allocation ceilings “The majority of institutional investors are going to cut back on as valuations shifted, or merely applying a new level of caution, the their overall allocations to private equity during 2010; we think end result was tighter competition for a shrinking pool of capital. that over the next three or four years there’s likely to be a 20 to 25 per cent reduction in the size of the global private equity “We thought that we were immune to the risks associated with market, against the peak of the boom.” the leverage games being played by many buy-out shops, but —Paul Fletcher, Senior Partner, Actis even those of us who have never played the leverage game have had our fund raising capability slashed drastically. 2009 will be known as one of the most difficult years ever for the industry.” …But the EM Growth Story Translates to a —Scott Swensen, Chairman, Conduit Capital Partners Rising Share of Global PE “For many LPs, the crisis and resulting liquidity crunch In dollar terms, emerging market funds still represent a small called into question the appropriate allocation to PE. The easy portion of most LP portfolios but a shift in LP thinking underway response was to say ‘no’ to most new commitments.” bodes well for emerging market managers. Investors are com- —James Seymour, Managing Director, EMP Global ing to realize they are under-exposed to high-growth markets, and the accepted wisdom about risk has changed. Global Fundraising Outlook Remains Hazy… EM funds’ share of the global total has risen, from only 5% in Some managers contend that 2009 was the first of several chal- 2004 to 20% of total capital raised as of June 2009, and from 7% lenging years to come. As of November 30, of the 313 funds to 24% of global private equity investment totals over the same launched in 2009, 66 had held at least one close. The outlook period (See Exhibit 2). Some managers predict the EM portion for fundraising in 2010 is unclear, given uncertainty around LPs’ of institutional PE allocations could soon tip into the double digits.
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