sign in sign up
<<
Home , Nancy Pelosi, Pedro Pierluisi, Xavier Becerra

TO: Democratic Colleagues FROM: DCCC Chairman Steve RE: Political & Redistricting Update DATE: November 16, 2011

Beginning in January, I outlined our goals on message, mobilization (recruiting and redistricting), and money. I’m proud to report that with less than one year until the 2012 elections, we have met or exceeded every goal we’ve set.

From day one we have aggressively held House Republicans accountable for their extreme Tea Party agenda. Even before the gavel came down on the Republicans’ attempt to end , we were working in local districts to hold them accountable. We have held them accountable for failing to pass a single bill that would help a small business create any job. We have held them accountable for consistently siding with Big Oil companies and with corporate tax loopholes. We’re not taking anything for granted; the DCCC has run ads in 81 districts to hold Republicans accountable and shape the political environment district by district.

Voters are connecting with Democrats’ message about reigniting the American Dream. They know we are fighting for them, not tax loopholes. They know that we will protect Medicare and Social Security, and that we are working to help small businesses create good paying jobs.

As a result of this message contrast, a series of recent polls show that House Democrats have had a 10 point turnaround from where Democrats were in November 2010 and are now leading the generic ballot.

• NBC/WSJ poll: Voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican- controlled Congress by 3 points (46 percent – 43 percent).

• Post/ABC poll: Voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled Congress by 3 points (44 percent – 41 percent).

• /Ipsos poll: Voters would support a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate in their district by 5 points (48 percent – 43 percent).

• Quinnipiac University poll: Voters prefer a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate for the House of Representatives in 2012 by 8 points (42 percent – 34 percent).

Why is this important? November 2009 was when House Republicans established an irrevocable lead in the generic ballot that ultimately resulted in their 2010 win. We have a long way to go to November 2012, but we are moving in the right direction. 2

House Democrats’ Aggressive Mobilization

Recruiting

As you know, we need 25 seats to win the Majority. The good news is that this is doable. Consider the math: There are 62 seats President Obama won now held by Republicans, 19 of those are districts won by both President Obama and Senator Kerry. Using conservative math, if we win 10 of the 19 Obama-Kerry districts and 15 of the remaining Obama districts, Democrats would win 25 seats and the Majority – and that’s before we target a single McCain district.

To be successful we need great candidates. At the beginning of this year I told you our strategic goal was to recruit strong candidates in 60 competitive districts by December 31. Immediately following last year’s election recruiting was a challenge but the DCCC Recruiting Committee, led by Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, quickly got to work. I am proud to report that we exceeded our goal three months ahead of schedule and have recruited more than 60 topnotch challengers.

The advice to anyone running this cycle is to run like a mayor – be a problem solver for your constituents. Our recruits are just that, they are problem solvers who reflect the values of their districts. A few examples:

• (FL-NEW) – the first African American woman police chief of Orlando, Florida who is running against Congressman Daniel Webster. • Pam Gulleson (ND-AL) – a farmer who is running in the open Rick Berg seat. • Clark Hall (AR-01) – a former mayor running against Congressman Rick Crawford. • Jose Hernandez (CA-10) – the son of migrant workers who became a NASA astronaut and is challenging Congressman . • Brendan Mullen (IN-02) – a former Army officer and small business owner who is running in ’s old district. • (CA-36) – an ER doctor who committed to the community that helped him pay for college that he would come back and serve them. He’s challenging Congresswoman Mack.

And, we will have more candidates in competitive districts on the board over the next few months.

Reapportionment & Redistricting

The Republicans don’t have credibility on redistricting. At the beginning of this year, Republicans went to the highest mountain, and took the biggest bullhorn and they said they would blow Democrats out in redistricting because they controlled the process in so many states. Now, even the Republicans admit that redistricting is a wash. You will hear a lot of anecdotes and half-truths from Republicans on redistricting, but they don’t tell the whole story. Based on where we are today, I will cautiously state that reapportionment and redistricting will be better than a wash for House Democrats – we have picked up approximately five (5) seats and are on track to do even better as the remaining states draw their lines. Let me take you through it:

3

Reapportionment

There are 12 seats that are being reapportioned from one state to another state. In this process, Democrats lose six (6) seats and pick up six (seats).

Reapportioned Democratic Seats – Lost Reapportioned Democratic Seats – Gained 1. 1. Florida – seat one 2. 2. Florida – seat two 3. * 3. Nevada 4. New York * 4. Texas – in court, one – two seats 5. 5. Washington 6.

In this process, Republicans lose five (5) seats and pick up four (4) to five (5) seats.

Reapportioned Republican Seats – Lost Reapportioned Republican Seats – Gained 1. Louisiana 1. 2. Iowa 2. South Carolina 3. 3. Texas – in court, two – three seats 4. New York * 4. Utah 5. Ohio

Open Reapportionment Questions:

• The outcome of New Jersey’s new lines is not yet known, a Democratic or Republican district could be lost.

• Following Jan Brewer’s illegal power grab by removing the independent redistricting chair in Arizona, redistricting in Arizona is in court.

Bottom line: Reapportionment is a wash for House Democrats.

Redistricting

Looking at the states where there are significant redistricting swings due to changing lines, House Democrats are poised to make critical gains. Let me take you through the most significant changes.

California – Democrats could pick up three (3) to (5) five seats. • There are currently 34 Democrats from . • Under the new map, there are 38 districts won by President Obama and 35 districts won Governor Brown.

4

Florida – Democrats could pick up five (5) to six (6) seats • Democrats have a 600,000 person registration advantage, but the delegation is 19 Republicans to 6 Democrats. • Under the new Fair Districts law, Republicans cannot keep their 19 to 6 advantage and a six seat Democratic pickup is fair. • Republicans have challenged the law nine times in court and lost every ruling.

Illinois – Democrats could pick up three (3) to (4) four seats. • Republican incumbents have not faced a challenging election in years, if at all. • Illinois Republicans are challenging the map in court. In its rulings to date, the court has signaled it is not amenable to the Republican arguments.

Texas – Democrats could pick up one (1) to three (3) seats depending on court rulings • Texas redistricting is also currently in court. The federal court ruled last week that the Texas map violated the Voting Rights Act and is being redrawn. • The best case scenario is that Democrats pick up one (1) to three (3) seats. The worth case scenario is that Democrats pick up one (1) seat.

I can’t talk about significant changes in redistricting without addressing our challenges in the map. Republicans say that we are going to lose four (4) seats in North Carolina – don’t believe it. Here’s why: all of our North Carolina incumbents had tough races in difficult districts last year in the worst cycle in a generation – and they won. Our North Carolina colleagues are battle tested and field ready. might have gotten steeper but they know how to successfully make the climb.

Bottom-line: Redistricting is far from being a blow out as Republicans announced, and we have exceeded expectations. In a NCEC analysis of redistricting nationally, Democrats have picked up five (5) seats. With 30 percent of seats left to be redrawn, that number will increase.

Money

We have achieved an incredible accomplishment this year: as the minority party the DCCC outraised the NRCC the first three quarters by nearly $4 million. This is the first time since BCRA was enacted that the House minority outraised the majority in an off-year quarter.

Here’s what’s significant about that, our donor base is fueling our success. On one day, September 30, an e-mail sent by raised $400,000 online. Half of that was from first time grassroots donors. The average grassroots donation is $34. The grassroots are fired up and energized by our fighting back. In this economy, when people are making difficult financial choices, our grassroots donors have decided they believe in House Democrats so much that they sacrifice elsewhere to give us $34. That’s remarkable.

The good news is that it’s not just us who are out raising the NRCC. Our challengers are outraising Republican incumbents. Nine challengers outraised the Republican incumbent they are running against. This is not surprising – buyer’s remorse has set in among people who supported Republicans. 5

I can’t talk about fundraising without talking about the work of Nancy Pelosi. You’ve heard me say it before: no one works harder than Nancy Pelosi to make sure we have the resources we need to win the House. She has raised $21 million directly for the DCCC and millions more for the National Redistricting Trust and House Majority PAC.

To the Members who have paid your dues and fundraised for the DCCC this year – thank you. You are essential to our effort to win 25 seats next year. To those of you haven’t, it is time to step up. Redistricting is over in a majority of states and we must show the grassroots and individual donors that we believe in our own success.

Thank you to our elected and DCCC leadership: Leader Nancy Pelosi, Whip , Assistant Leader , Caucus Chair John Larson, Caucus Vice Chair , DCCC National Recruitment and Candidate Services Chair Allyson Schwartz; DCCC National Finance Chair ; DCCC National Community Outreach Chair ; DCCC National Community Mobilization Chair ; Frontline Chair ; Red to Blue Chairs & Donna Edwards; Business Council Chairs , Jim Himes & ; Clean Tech Council Chair Jared Polis; GLBT Council Chairs and Jared Polis; Jewish Council Chairs and ; Labor Council Chairs George Miller, Betty Sutton & Linda Sanchez; Latino Council Chairs Linda Sanchez & ; Native American Council Chairs Xavier Becerra & ; Progressive Outreach Chair Donna Edwards; Women LEAD Chairs & ; and Defense Council Chairs Norm Dicks.

Conclusion

We have gone from a gale force wind against us to a sustained breeze at our backs. We have met our goals on message, money, and mobilization and are setting even more aggressive goals for the next year. With full participation of our Caucus, our individual supporters, and the enthusiasm of our grassroots we can continue holding Republicans accountable, recruit strong candidates, and build top notch campaigns to reach our ultimate goal – focusing on the middle class and reigniting the American Dream.

# # #