The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit international development organization committed to improving lives across a dynamic and developing Asia. Informed by six decades of experience and deep local expertise, our work across the region addresses five overarching goals— strengthen governance, empower women, expand economic opportunity, increase environmental resilience, and promote regional cooperation. Headquartered in San Francisco, The Asia Foundation works through a network of offices in 18 Asian countries and in Washington, DC. The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia © The Asia Foundation 2017 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced without written permission from The Asia Foundation Printed in Bangkok, Thailand ISBN (Book) : 978-616-92453-2-2 ISBN (E-Book) : 978-616-92453-3-9 456 California Street, 9th Floor San Francisco, CA U.S.A. 94104 www.asiafoundation.org Q. House Convent Building, 6D Floor 38 Convent Road, Silom Bangkok 10500, Thailand Cover photography: Mural painting in memory of Noor Hossain, a Bangladeshi activist killed during political protests in 1987. He has the words “Let democracy live” painted on his back. Shahidul Alam/Drik Images (1990) Preface The forces of economic globalization, technological innovation, and population flow are rapidly transform- ing Asia. Despite this dynamism, some countries and subnational regions remain caught in protracted cycles of conflict and violence, contributing to underdevelopment, poor governance, and instability. In an increasingly inter-connected and porous region, with the stream of people, guns, legal and illegal trade, and ideologies crossing national borders, conflict and violence in one country can severely impact other countries. Understanding the historical context and drivers of conflict and violence in Asia is key to developing peacebuilding strategies. However, current violence datasets chronically underreport violence, and solid data on local forms of violence is practically non-existent. Many datasets focus on just one type of violence or aggregate all violence together. Studying patterns of violent conflict in isolation neglects the multiple, intersecting dimensions of this urgent issue. In response to critical gaps, The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia presents a concise overview of the diversity and complexity of conflict and violence in Asia today. This evidence-based volume covers 14 countries, including some of the most entrenched and complex places in the world, and reports historical patterns and current trends in conflict and violence. Importantly, this volume contextualizes types of violent conflict, clarifying which predominate in different areas. This analysis can help policymakers, government officials, scholars, development professionals, and security analysts to deeply and effectively understand contemporary conflict and violence in Asia using a political-economy and historical lens. Drawing on The Asia Foundation’s long-standing experience in each country, the chapters combine analysis of published materials with in-depth knowledge and nuanced understanding of local politics and power. Our approach sees profound connections between intercommunal violence, gender-based violence, land and natural resource conflicts, cross-border insurgency and terrorism, and the links between conflict and regime type. The 14 country chapters use a common framework, examining nine types of contestation at the transnational, national, subnational, and local levels. The Asia Foundation is committed to working with Asian governments and local partners to address these long-running conflicts. Our programs support the efforts of key local actors in governments and conflict-affected populations to address the problems that perpetuate conflict and violence. The Foun- dation has supported the development of locally-owned violence incident monitoring systems in Thai- land, the Philippines, Indonesia, Nepal, and Bangladesh, and that data is cited throughout this volume. Developing similar systems across the region can contribute to a more accurate and comprehensive picture of conflict and violence in Asia. This book examines emerging patterns that require the world’s attention: the region’s expanding urbani- zation will likely increase rather than decrease violence in the coming decade; the politicization of ethnic and religious identities creates major risks for the future; and gender-based violence is widespread in Asia, and its impacts are greater than previously understood. It remains to be seen whether Asia can reach its full potential without sustainable, inclusive solutions to the region’s conflicts. Asia in Given the complex dynamics of the region, there are many lessons of intra-Asia cooperation and efforts to reduce conflict across the region. We hope this volume will contribute to the global dialogue on conflict and Violence fragility and help shape policy-oriented research investigating the impacts and drivers of violence in Asia. and Conflict of State David D. Arnold President, The Asia Foundation September 2017 | The iii iv official policies. government’s UK the reflect necessarily not do presented views The resources. Foundation Asia as produced themaps.DeddeawLaosinchaiwasgraphicdesigner. Colombano Kristin here. covered countries the in offices Foundation’s Asia The with collaboration close in developed were chapters The office. DC Washington, and team Communications Global Bryony Lau,AdrianMorel,andPatthiyaTongfuengmanagedelementsoftheproject. stage. drafting the in project the co-led and book, the for idea initial the had Chingchit Sasiwan of The Asia Foundation’s Program Specialists Group. The project was led by Patrick Barron. The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia in Violence and Conflict of State The Acknowledgements The project received funding from the UK Department for International Development as well as Development International for Department UK the from funding received project The The volume was edited by John Rieger, with editorial support from The Asia Foundation’s was produced by the Conflict and Development team Development and Conflict the by produced was Asia in Violence and Conflict of State | The Contributors Authors Introduction Patrick Barron Afghanistan Thanit Herabat, Bernie Derrible, Sasiwan Chingchit, and Megumi Makisaka Bangladesh Megumi Makisaka, with Victor Bernard Cambodia Megumi Makisaka, with Victor Bernard India Sasiwan Chingchit Indonesia Adrian Morel, Bryony Lau, and Patrick Barron Malaysia Patthiya Tongfueng and Adrian Morel Mongolia Megumi Makisaka Myanmar Sasiwan Chingchit, with Megumi Makisaka, Patrick Barron, and Victor Bernard Nepal Megumi Makisaka and Sasiwan Chingchit, with Victor Bernard Pakistan Megumi Makisaka, with Sasiwan Chingchit Philippines Nadine Ragonjan and Bryony Lau, with Patthiya Tongfueng Sri Lanka Sasiwan Chingchit, with Patthiya Tongfueng and Megumi Makisaka Thailand Sasiwan Chingchit, with Megumi Makisaka and Victor Bernard Thematic essays Sana Jaffrey and Dan Slater, Chris Wilson, Anthony Davis, Jacqui True, and Saturnino M. Borras Jr. The Asia Foundation Country Representatives Afghanistan Abdullah Ahmadzai Bangladesh Sara Taylor Cambodia Meloney Lindberg India Sagar Prasai Indonesia Sandra Hamid Malaysia Herizal Hazri Mongolia Meloney Lindberg (former); Diana Fernandez (acting) Myanmar Kim Ninh Nepal George Varughese Pakistan Sofia Shakil Philippines Steven Rood (former); Sam Chittick Sri Lanka Dinesha de Silva Thailand Thomas Parks Asia in Timor-Leste Todd Wassell Violence and Conflict of State | The v Table of Contents Preface iii Acknowledgements iv Contributors v Introduction: The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia 1 Patterns and Trends in Conflict and Violence Afghanistan 10 Bangladesh 24 Cambodia 38 India 50 Indonesia 66 Malaysia 80 Mongolia 92 Myanmar 102 Nepal 116 Pakistan 128 Philippines 142 Sri Lanka 156 Thailand 168 Essays on The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia Violence and Regimes in Asia: Capable States and Durable Settlements 194 Conflict and Antiminority Violence 208 Cross-Border Insurgency and Terrorism in Asia 218 Conflict in Asia and the Role of Gender-Based Violence 230 Resource Conflict and Democratic Land Governance 240 Asia in Violence and Conflict of State | The vi List of Figures Afghanistan Figure 1 Civil war fatalities in Afghanistan (1979–2001) 13 Figure 2 Civilian deaths in Afghanistan (2007–2016) 14 Figure 3 Opium cultivation in Afghanistan (1994–2016) 18 Figure 4 Level of crime or violence experienced by respondents, by region (2006–2016) 19 Figure 5 Registered cases of violence against women (2012–2015) 20 Bangladesh Figure 1 Fatality estimates from political violence in Bangladesh (2001–2016) 26 Figure 2 Dhaka’s crime statistics (2010–2015) 33 Figure 3 Rape cases in Bangladesh (2001–2016) 34 Cambodia Figure 1 Estimate of battle deaths in Cambodia (1979–1998) 41 Figure 2 Killings of political activists and party members in Cambodia (1993–2013) 42 Indonesia Figure 1 Violent deaths and incidents, by type, Aceh 71 Figure 2 Separatism-related incidents and deaths, Papua and Papua Barat provinces 72 Figure 3 Identity-related incidents and deaths per year, 16 Indonesian provinces 74 (2005–2014) Figure 4 Share of yearly deaths, by type of violence, for nine provinces (1998–2014) 75 Figure 5 Domestic violence incidents and female victims of sexual assault 77 and homicide, 16 provinces Malaysia Figure 1 Views toward IS 85 Asia in Figure