Chaos: the Mathematics Behind the Butterfly Effect
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Chapter 6: Ensemble Forecasting and Atmospheric Predictability
Chapter 6: Ensemble Forecasting and Atmospheric Predictability Introduction Deterministic Chaos (what!?) In 1951 Charney indicated that forecast skill would break down, but he attributed it to model errors and errors in the initial conditions… In the 1960’s the forecasts were skillful for only one day or so. Statistical prediction was equal or better than dynamical predictions, Like it was until now for ENSO predictions! Lorenz wanted to show that statistical prediction could not match prediction with a nonlinear model for the Tokyo (1960) NWP conference So, he tried to find a model that was not periodic (otherwise stats would win!) He programmed in machine language on a 4K memory, 60 ops/sec Royal McBee computer He developed a low-order model (12 d.o.f) and changed the parameters and eventually found a nonperiodic solution Printed results with 3 significant digits (plenty!) Tried to reproduce results, went for a coffee and OOPS! Lorenz (1963) discovered that even with a perfect model and almost perfect initial conditions the forecast loses all skill in a finite time interval: “A butterfly in Brazil can change the forecast in Texas after one or two weeks”. In the 1960’s this was only of academic interest: forecasts were useless in two days Now, we are getting closer to the 2 week limit of predictability, and we have to extract the maximum information Central theorem of chaos (Lorenz, 1960s): a) Unstable systems have finite predictability (chaos) b) Stable systems are infinitely predictable a) Unstable dynamical system b) Stable dynamical -
A Gentle Introduction to Dynamical Systems Theory for Researchers in Speech, Language, and Music
A Gentle Introduction to Dynamical Systems Theory for Researchers in Speech, Language, and Music. Talk given at PoRT workshop, Glasgow, July 2012 Fred Cummins, University College Dublin [1] Dynamical Systems Theory (DST) is the lingua franca of Physics (both Newtonian and modern), Biology, Chemistry, and many other sciences and non-sciences, such as Economics. To employ the tools of DST is to take an explanatory stance with respect to observed phenomena. DST is thus not just another tool in the box. Its use is a different way of doing science. DST is increasingly used in non-computational, non-representational, non-cognitivist approaches to understanding behavior (and perhaps brains). (Embodied, embedded, ecological, enactive theories within cognitive science.) [2] DST originates in the science of mechanics, developed by the (co-)inventor of the calculus: Isaac Newton. This revolutionary science gave us the seductive concept of the mechanism. Mechanics seeks to provide a deterministic account of the relation between the motions of massive bodies and the forces that act upon them. A dynamical system comprises • A state description that indexes the components at time t, and • A dynamic, which is a rule governing state change over time The choice of variables defines the state space. The dynamic associates an instantaneous rate of change with each point in the state space. Any specific instance of a dynamical system will trace out a single trajectory in state space. (This is often, misleadingly, called a solution to the underlying equations.) Description of a specific system therefore also requires specification of the initial conditions. In the domain of mechanics, where we seek to account for the motion of massive bodies, we know which variables to choose (position and velocity). -
An Image Cryptography Using Henon Map and Arnold Cat Map
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 05 Issue: 04 | Apr-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 An Image Cryptography using Henon Map and Arnold Cat Map. Pranjali Sankhe1, Shruti Pimple2, Surabhi Singh3, Anita Lahane4 1,2,3 UG Student VIII SEM, B.E., Computer Engg., RGIT, Mumbai, India 4Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Engg., RGIT, Mumbai, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - In this digital world i.e. the transmission of non- 2. METHODOLOGY physical data that has been encoded digitally for the purpose of storage Security is a continuous process via which data can 2.1 HENON MAP be secured from several active and passive attacks. Encryption technique protects the confidentiality of a message or 1. The Henon map is a discrete time dynamic system information which is in the form of multimedia (text, image, introduces by michel henon. and video).In this paper, a new symmetric image encryption 2. The map depends on two parameters, a and b, which algorithm is proposed based on Henon’s chaotic system with for the classical Henon map have values of a = 1.4 and byte sequences applied with a novel approach of pixel shuffling b = 0.3. For the classical values the Henon map is of an image which results in an effective and efficient chaotic. For other values of a and b the map may be encryption of images. The Arnold Cat Map is a discrete system chaotic, intermittent, or converge to a periodic orbit. that stretches and folds its trajectories in phase space. Cryptography is the process of encryption and decryption of 3. -
WHAT IS a CHAOTIC ATTRACTOR? 1. Introduction J. Yorke Coined the Word 'Chaos' As Applied to Deterministic Systems. R. Devane
WHAT IS A CHAOTIC ATTRACTOR? CLARK ROBINSON Abstract. Devaney gave a mathematical definition of the term chaos, which had earlier been introduced by Yorke. We discuss issues involved in choosing the properties that characterize chaos. We also discuss how this term can be combined with the definition of an attractor. 1. Introduction J. Yorke coined the word `chaos' as applied to deterministic systems. R. Devaney gave the first mathematical definition for a map to be chaotic on the whole space where a map is defined. Since that time, there have been several different definitions of chaos which emphasize different aspects of the map. Some of these are more computable and others are more mathematical. See [9] a comparison of many of these definitions. There is probably no one best or correct definition of chaos. In this paper, we discuss what we feel is one of better mathematical definition. (It may not be as computable as some of the other definitions, e.g., the one by Alligood, Sauer, and Yorke.) Our definition is very similar to the one given by Martelli in [8] and [9]. We also combine the concepts of chaos and attractors and discuss chaotic attractors. 2. Basic definitions We start by giving the basic definitions needed to define a chaotic attractor. We give the definitions for a diffeomorphism (or map), but those for a system of differential equations are similar. The orbit of a point x∗ by F is the set O(x∗; F) = f Fi(x∗) : i 2 Z g. An invariant set for a diffeomorphism F is an set A in the domain such that F(A) = A. -
The Transition Between the Complex Quadratic Map and the Hénon Map
The Transition Between the Complex Quadratic Map and the Hénon Map by Sarah N. Kabes Technical Report Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Minnesota Duluth, MN 55812 July 2012 The Transition Between the Complex Quadratic Map and the Hénon map A PROJECT SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Sarah Kabes in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science July 2012 Acknowledgements Thank you first and foremost to my advisor Dr. Bruce Peckham. Your patience, encouragement, excitement, and support while teaching have made this experience not only possible but enjoyable as well. Additional thanks to my committee members, Dr. Marshall Hampton and Dr. John Pastor for reading and providing suggestions for this project. Furthermore, without the additional assistance from two individuals my project would not be as complete as it is today. Thank you Dr. Harlan Stech for finding the critical value , and thank you Scot Halverson for working with me and the open source code to produce the movie. Of course none of this would be possibly without the continued support of my family and friends. Thank you all for believing in me. i Abstract This paper investigates the transition between two well known dynamical systems in the plane, the complex quadratic map and the Hénon map. Using bifurcation theory, an analysis of the dynamical changes the family of maps undergoes as we follow a “homotopy” from one map to the other is presented. Along with locating common local bifurcations, an additional un-familiar bifurcation at infinity is discussed. -
Introduction to Bifurcation Analysis
PhD mini course: introduction to bifurcation analysis G.A.K. van Voorn Dept Theor. Biology, Vrije Universiteit de Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands [email protected] June 19,20,21,22,26, 2006 Abstract This pdf document provides the textual background in the mini course on bifurca- tion analysis, by George van Voorn. It is the companion material by the powerpoint presentations posted on the site www.bio.vu.nl/thb. Goal of this manuscript is to explain some of the basics of bifurcation theory to PhD-students at the group. The emphasis is strongly on the biological interpretation of bifurcations; mathematics are reduced to an absolute minimum. Some expert things are covered as well, with the goal that it is possible for the reader to understand results of model analyses at the group in sufficient detail. Keywords: bifurcation analysis, equilibria, ODE systems. 1 1 Introduction In scientific fields as diverse as fluid mechanics, electronics, chemistry and theoretical ecology, there is the application of what is referred to as bifurcation analysis; the analysis of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE’s) under parameter variation. Performing a local bifurcation analysis is often a powerful way to analyse the properties of such systems, since it predicts what kind of behaviour (system is in equilibrium, or there is cycling) occurs where in parameter space. With local bifurcations linearisation in state space at the critical point of the parameter space provides sufficient information. For a good introduction on the basics of local bifurcation analysis the reader is referred to Guckenheimer and Holmes (1985), Wiggins (1990) and Kuznetsov (2004), be it these are all very mathematical in their approach. -
THE LORENZ SYSTEM Math118, O. Knill GLOBAL EXISTENCE
THE LORENZ SYSTEM Math118, O. Knill GLOBAL EXISTENCE. Remember that nonlinear differential equations do not necessarily have global solutions like d=dtx(t) = x2(t). If solutions do not exist for all times, there is a finite τ such that x(t) for t τ. j j ! 1 ! ABSTRACT. In this lecture, we have a closer look at the Lorenz system. LEMMA. The Lorenz system has a solution x(t) for all times. THE LORENZ SYSTEM. The differential equations Since we have a trapping region, the Lorenz differential equation exist for all times t > 0. If we run time _ 2 2 2 ct x_ = σ(y x) backwards, we have V = 2σ(rx + y + bz 2brz) cV for some constant c. Therefore V (t) V (0)e . − − ≤ ≤ y_ = rx y xz − − THE ATTRACTING SET. The set K = t> Tt(E) is invariant under the differential equation. It has zero z_ = xy bz : T 0 − volume and is called the attracting set of the Lorenz equations. It contains the unstable manifold of O. are called the Lorenz system. There are three parameters. For σ = 10; r = 28; b = 8=3, Lorenz discovered in 1963 an interesting long time behavior and an EQUILIBRIUM POINTS. Besides the origin O = (0; 0; 0, we have two other aperiodic "attractor". The picture to the right shows a numerical integration equilibrium points. C = ( b(r 1); b(r 1); r 1). For r < 1, all p − p − − of an orbit for t [0; 40]. solutions are attracted to the origin. At r = 1, the two equilibrium points 2 appear with a period doubling bifurcation. -
Chaos Theory
By Nadha CHAOS THEORY What is Chaos Theory? . It is a field of study within applied mathematics . It studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions . It deals with nonlinear systems . It is commonly referred to as the Butterfly Effect What is a nonlinear system? . In mathematics, a nonlinear system is a system which is not linear . It is a system which does not satisfy the superposition principle, or whose output is not directly proportional to its input. Less technically, a nonlinear system is any problem where the variable(s) to be solved for cannot be written as a linear combination of independent components. the SUPERPOSITION PRINCIPLE states that, for all linear systems, the net response at a given place and time caused by two or more stimuli is the sum of the responses which would have been caused by each stimulus individually. So that if input A produces response X and input B produces response Y then input (A + B) produces response (X + Y). So a nonlinear system does not satisfy this principal. There are 3 criteria that a chaotic system satisfies 1) sensitive dependence on initial conditions 2) topological mixing 3) periodic orbits are dense 1) Sensitive dependence on initial conditions . This is popularly known as the "butterfly effect” . It got its name because of the title of a paper given by Edward Lorenz titled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? . The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. -
Synchronization in Nonlinear Systems and Networks
Synchronization in Nonlinear Systems and Networks Yuri Maistrenko E-mail: [email protected] you can find me in the room EW 632, Wednesday 13:00-14:00 Lecture 4 - 23.11.2011 1 Chaos actually … is everywhere Web Book CHAOS = BUTTERFLY EFFECT Henri Poincaré (1880) “ It so happens that small differences in the initial state of the system can lead to very large differences in its final state. A small error in the former could then produce an enormous one in the latter. Prediction becomes impossible, and the system appears to behave randomly.” Ray Bradbury “A Sound of Thunder “ (1952) THE ESSENCE OF CHAOS • processes deterministic fully determined by initial state • long-term behavior unpredictable butterfly effect PHYSICAL “DEFINITION “ OF CHAOS “To say that a certain system exhibits chaos means that the system obeys deterministic law of evolution but that the outcome is highly sensitive to small uncertainties in the specification of the initial state. In chaotic system any open ball of initial conditions, no matter how small, will in finite time spread over the extent of the entire asymptotically admissible phase space” Predrag Cvitanovich . Appl.Chaos 1992 EXAMPLES OF CHAOTIC SYSTEMS • the solar system (Poincare) • the weather (Lorenz) • turbulence in fluids • population growth • lots and lots of other systems… “HOT” APPLICATIONS • neuronal networks of the brain • genetic networks UNPREDICTIBILITY OF THE WEATHER Edward Lorenz (1963) Difficulties in predicting the weather are not related to the complexity of the Earths’ climate but to CHAOS in the climate equations! Dynamical systems Dynamical system: a system of one or more variables which evolve in time according to a given rule Two types of dynamical systems: • Differential equations: time is continuous (called flow) dx N f (x), t R dt • Difference equations (iterated maps): time is discrete (called cascade) xn1 f (xn ), n 0, 1, 2,.. -
Writing the History of Dynamical Systems and Chaos
Historia Mathematica 29 (2002), 273–339 doi:10.1006/hmat.2002.2351 Writing the History of Dynamical Systems and Chaos: View metadata, citation and similar papersLongue at core.ac.uk Dur´ee and Revolution, Disciplines and Cultures1 brought to you by CORE provided by Elsevier - Publisher Connector David Aubin Max-Planck Institut fur¨ Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Berlin, Germany E-mail: [email protected] and Amy Dahan Dalmedico Centre national de la recherche scientifique and Centre Alexandre-Koyre,´ Paris, France E-mail: [email protected] Between the late 1960s and the beginning of the 1980s, the wide recognition that simple dynamical laws could give rise to complex behaviors was sometimes hailed as a true scientific revolution impacting several disciplines, for which a striking label was coined—“chaos.” Mathematicians quickly pointed out that the purported revolution was relying on the abstract theory of dynamical systems founded in the late 19th century by Henri Poincar´e who had already reached a similar conclusion. In this paper, we flesh out the historiographical tensions arising from these confrontations: longue-duree´ history and revolution; abstract mathematics and the use of mathematical techniques in various other domains. After reviewing the historiography of dynamical systems theory from Poincar´e to the 1960s, we highlight the pioneering work of a few individuals (Steve Smale, Edward Lorenz, David Ruelle). We then go on to discuss the nature of the chaos phenomenon, which, we argue, was a conceptual reconfiguration as -
Tom W B Kibble Frank H Ber
Classical Mechanics 5th Edition Classical Mechanics 5th Edition Tom W.B. Kibble Frank H. Berkshire Imperial College London Imperial College Press ICP Published by Imperial College Press 57 Shelton Street Covent Garden London WC2H 9HE Distributed by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224 USA office: Suite 202, 1060 Main Street, River Edge, NJ 07661 UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kibble, T. W. B. Classical mechanics / Tom W. B. Kibble, Frank H. Berkshire, -- 5th ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1860944248 -- ISBN 1860944353 (pbk). 1. Mechanics, Analytic. I. Berkshire, F. H. (Frank H.). II. Title QA805 .K5 2004 531'.01'515--dc 22 2004044010 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Copyright © 2004 by Imperial College Press All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. Printed in Singapore. To Anne and Rosie vi Preface This book, based on courses given to physics and applied mathematics stu- dents at Imperial College, deals with the mechanics of particles and rigid bodies. -
Annotated List of References Tobias Keip, I7801986 Presentation Method: Poster
Personal Inquiry – Annotated list of references Tobias Keip, i7801986 Presentation Method: Poster Poster Section 1: What is Chaos? In this section I am introducing the topic. I am describing different types of chaos and how individual perception affects our sense for chaos or chaotic systems. I am also going to define the terminology. I support my ideas with a lot of examples, like chaos in our daily life, then I am going to do a transition to simple mathematical chaotic systems. Larry Bradley. (2010). Chaos and Fractals. Available: www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/. Last accessed 13 May 2010. This website delivered me with a very good introduction into the topic as there are a lot of books and interesting web-pages in the “References”-Sektion. Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. Penguin Books, 1987. The book gave me a very general introduction into the topic. Harald Lesch. (2003-2007). alpha-Centauri . Available: www.br-online.de/br- alpha/alpha-centauri/alpha-centauri-harald-lesch-videothek-ID1207836664586.xml. Last accessed 13. May 2010. A web-page with German video-documentations delivered a lot of vivid examples about chaos for my poster. Poster Section 2: Laplace's Demon and the Butterfly Effect In this part I describe the idea of the so called Laplace's Demon and the theory of cause-and-effect chains. I work with a lot of examples, especially the famous weather forecast example. Also too I introduce the mathematical concept of a dynamic system. Jeremy S. Heyl (August 11, 2008). The Double Pendulum Fractal. British Columbia, Canada.