A Gentle Introduction to Dynamical Systems Theory for Researchers in Speech, Language, and Music
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Chapter 6: Ensemble Forecasting and Atmospheric Predictability
Chapter 6: Ensemble Forecasting and Atmospheric Predictability Introduction Deterministic Chaos (what!?) In 1951 Charney indicated that forecast skill would break down, but he attributed it to model errors and errors in the initial conditions… In the 1960’s the forecasts were skillful for only one day or so. Statistical prediction was equal or better than dynamical predictions, Like it was until now for ENSO predictions! Lorenz wanted to show that statistical prediction could not match prediction with a nonlinear model for the Tokyo (1960) NWP conference So, he tried to find a model that was not periodic (otherwise stats would win!) He programmed in machine language on a 4K memory, 60 ops/sec Royal McBee computer He developed a low-order model (12 d.o.f) and changed the parameters and eventually found a nonperiodic solution Printed results with 3 significant digits (plenty!) Tried to reproduce results, went for a coffee and OOPS! Lorenz (1963) discovered that even with a perfect model and almost perfect initial conditions the forecast loses all skill in a finite time interval: “A butterfly in Brazil can change the forecast in Texas after one or two weeks”. In the 1960’s this was only of academic interest: forecasts were useless in two days Now, we are getting closer to the 2 week limit of predictability, and we have to extract the maximum information Central theorem of chaos (Lorenz, 1960s): a) Unstable systems have finite predictability (chaos) b) Stable systems are infinitely predictable a) Unstable dynamical system b) Stable dynamical -
CHAOS and DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS Spring 2021 Lectures: Monday, Wednesday, 11:00–12:15PM ET Recitation: Friday, 12:30–1:45PM ET
MATH-UA 264.001 – CHAOS AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS Spring 2021 Lectures: Monday, Wednesday, 11:00–12:15PM ET Recitation: Friday, 12:30–1:45PM ET Objectives Dynamical systems theory is the branch of mathematics that studies the properties of iterated action of maps on spaces. It provides a mathematical framework to characterize a great variety of time-evolving phenomena in areas such as physics, ecology, and finance, among many other disciplines. In this class we will study dynamical systems that evolve in discrete time, as well as continuous-time dynamical systems described by ordinary di↵erential equations. Of particular focus will be to explore and understand the qualitative properties of dynamics, such as the existence of attractors, periodic orbits and chaos. We will do this by means of mathematical analysis, as well as simple numerical experiments. List of topics • One- and two-dimensional maps. • Linearization, stable and unstable manifolds. • Attractors, chaotic behavior of maps. • Linear and nonlinear continuous-time systems. • Limit sets, periodic orbits. • Chaos in di↵erential equations, Lyapunov exponents. • Bifurcations. Contact and office hours • Instructor: Dimitris Giannakis, [email protected]. Office hours: Monday 5:00-6:00PM and Wednesday 4:30–5:30PM ET. • Recitation Leader: Wenjing Dong, [email protected]. Office hours: Tuesday 4:00-5:00PM ET. Textbooks • Required: – Alligood, Sauer, Yorke, Chaos: An Introduction to Dynamical Systems, Springer. Available online at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2Fb97589. • Recommended: – Strogatz, Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos. – Hirsch, Smale, Devaney, Di↵erential Equations, Dynamical Systems, and an Introduction to Chaos. Available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/book/9780123820105. -
Dynamical Systems Theory for Causal Inference with Application to Synthetic Control Methods
Dynamical Systems Theory for Causal Inference with Application to Synthetic Control Methods Yi Ding Panos Toulis University of Chicago University of Chicago Department of Computer Science Booth School of Business Abstract In this paper, we adopt results in nonlinear time series analysis for causal inference in dynamical settings. Our motivation is policy analysis with panel data, particularly through the use of “synthetic control” methods. These methods regress pre-intervention outcomes of the treated unit to outcomes from a pool of control units, and then use the fitted regres- sion model to estimate causal effects post- intervention. In this setting, we propose to screen out control units that have a weak dy- Figure 1: A Lorenz attractor plotted in 3D. namical relationship to the treated unit. In simulations, we show that this method can mitigate bias from “cherry-picking” of control However, in many real-world settings, different vari- units, which is usually an important concern. ables exhibit dynamic interdependence, sometimes We illustrate on real-world applications, in- showing positive correlation and sometimes negative. cluding the tobacco legislation example of Such ephemeral correlations can be illustrated with Abadie et al.(2010), and Brexit. a popular dynamical system shown in Figure1, the Lorenz system (Lorenz, 1963). The trajectory resem- bles a butterfly shape indicating varying correlations 1 Introduction at different times: in one wing of the shape, variables X and Y appear to be positively correlated, and in the In causal inference, we compare outcomes of units who other they are negatively correlated. Such dynamics received the treatment with outcomes from units who present new methodological challenges for causal in- did not. -
An Image Cryptography Using Henon Map and Arnold Cat Map
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 05 Issue: 04 | Apr-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 An Image Cryptography using Henon Map and Arnold Cat Map. Pranjali Sankhe1, Shruti Pimple2, Surabhi Singh3, Anita Lahane4 1,2,3 UG Student VIII SEM, B.E., Computer Engg., RGIT, Mumbai, India 4Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Engg., RGIT, Mumbai, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - In this digital world i.e. the transmission of non- 2. METHODOLOGY physical data that has been encoded digitally for the purpose of storage Security is a continuous process via which data can 2.1 HENON MAP be secured from several active and passive attacks. Encryption technique protects the confidentiality of a message or 1. The Henon map is a discrete time dynamic system information which is in the form of multimedia (text, image, introduces by michel henon. and video).In this paper, a new symmetric image encryption 2. The map depends on two parameters, a and b, which algorithm is proposed based on Henon’s chaotic system with for the classical Henon map have values of a = 1.4 and byte sequences applied with a novel approach of pixel shuffling b = 0.3. For the classical values the Henon map is of an image which results in an effective and efficient chaotic. For other values of a and b the map may be encryption of images. The Arnold Cat Map is a discrete system chaotic, intermittent, or converge to a periodic orbit. that stretches and folds its trajectories in phase space. Cryptography is the process of encryption and decryption of 3. -
Arxiv:0705.1142V1 [Math.DS] 8 May 2007 Cases New) and Are Ripe for Further Study
A PRIMER ON SUBSTITUTION TILINGS OF THE EUCLIDEAN PLANE NATALIE PRIEBE FRANK Abstract. This paper is intended to provide an introduction to the theory of substitution tilings. For our purposes, tiling substitution rules are divided into two broad classes: geometric and combi- natorial. Geometric substitution tilings include self-similar tilings such as the well-known Penrose tilings; for this class there is a substantial body of research in the literature. Combinatorial sub- stitutions are just beginning to be examined, and some of what we present here is new. We give numerous examples, mention selected major results, discuss connections between the two classes of substitutions, include current research perspectives and questions, and provide an extensive bib- liography. Although the author attempts to fairly represent the as a whole, the paper is not an exhaustive survey, and she apologizes for any important omissions. 1. Introduction d A tiling substitution rule is a rule that can be used to construct infinite tilings of R using a finite number of tile types. The rule tells us how to \substitute" each tile type by a finite configuration of tiles in a way that can be repeated, growing ever larger pieces of tiling at each stage. In the d limit, an infinite tiling of R is obtained. In this paper we take the perspective that there are two major classes of tiling substitution rules: those based on a linear expansion map and those relying instead upon a sort of \concatenation" of tiles. The first class, which we call geometric tiling substitutions, includes self-similar tilings, of which there are several well-known examples including the Penrose tilings. -
WHAT IS a CHAOTIC ATTRACTOR? 1. Introduction J. Yorke Coined the Word 'Chaos' As Applied to Deterministic Systems. R. Devane
WHAT IS A CHAOTIC ATTRACTOR? CLARK ROBINSON Abstract. Devaney gave a mathematical definition of the term chaos, which had earlier been introduced by Yorke. We discuss issues involved in choosing the properties that characterize chaos. We also discuss how this term can be combined with the definition of an attractor. 1. Introduction J. Yorke coined the word `chaos' as applied to deterministic systems. R. Devaney gave the first mathematical definition for a map to be chaotic on the whole space where a map is defined. Since that time, there have been several different definitions of chaos which emphasize different aspects of the map. Some of these are more computable and others are more mathematical. See [9] a comparison of many of these definitions. There is probably no one best or correct definition of chaos. In this paper, we discuss what we feel is one of better mathematical definition. (It may not be as computable as some of the other definitions, e.g., the one by Alligood, Sauer, and Yorke.) Our definition is very similar to the one given by Martelli in [8] and [9]. We also combine the concepts of chaos and attractors and discuss chaotic attractors. 2. Basic definitions We start by giving the basic definitions needed to define a chaotic attractor. We give the definitions for a diffeomorphism (or map), but those for a system of differential equations are similar. The orbit of a point x∗ by F is the set O(x∗; F) = f Fi(x∗) : i 2 Z g. An invariant set for a diffeomorphism F is an set A in the domain such that F(A) = A. -
A Cell Dynamical System Model for Simulation of Continuum Dynamics of Turbulent Fluid Flows A
A Cell Dynamical System Model for Simulation of Continuum Dynamics of Turbulent Fluid Flows A. M. Selvam and S. Fadnavis Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.geocities.com/amselvam Trends in Continuum Physics, TRECOP ’98; Proceedings of the International Symposium on Trends in Continuum Physics, Poznan, Poland, August 17-20, 1998. Edited by Bogdan T. Maruszewski, Wolfgang Muschik, and Andrzej Radowicz. Singapore, World Scientific, 1999, 334(12). 1. INTRODUCTION Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations of all scales ranging from turbulence (millimeters-seconds) to climate (thousands of kilometers-years) (Tessier et. al., 1996) Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures of self-organized criticality (Bak et. al., 1988) Standard models for turbulent fluid flows in meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed multifractal (space-time) structures in atmospheric flows. Numerical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are subject to deterministic chaos and give unrealistic solutions. Deterministic chaos is a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative computations. Round-off error of finite precision computations doubles on an average at each step of iterative computations (Mary Selvam, 1993). Round- off error will propagate to the mainstream computation and give unrealistic solutions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models which incorporate thousands of iterative computations in long-term numerical integration schemes. A recently developed non-deterministic cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows (Mary Selvam, 1990; Mary Selvam et. -
Handbook of Dynamical Systems
Handbook Of Dynamical Systems Parochial Chrisy dunes: he waggles his medicine testily and punctiliously. Draggled Bealle engirds her impuissance so ding-dongdistractively Allyn that phagocytoseOzzie Russianizing purringly very and inconsumably. perhaps. Ulick usually kotows lineally or fossilise idiopathically when Modern analytical methods in handbook of skeleton signals that Ale Jan Homburg Google Scholar. Your wishlist items are not longer accessible through the associated public hyperlink. Bandelow, L Recke and B Sandstede. Dynamical Systems and mob Handbook Archive. Are neurodynamic organizations a fundamental property of teamwork? The i card you entered has early been redeemed. Katok A, Bernoulli diffeomorphisms on surfaces, Ann. Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group. NOTE: Funds will be deducted from your Flipkart Gift Card when your place manner order. Attendance at all activities marked with this symbol will be monitored. As well as dynamical system, we must only when interventions happen in. This second half a Volume 1 of practice Handbook follows Volume 1A which was published in 2002 The contents of stain two tightly integrated parts taken together. This promotion has been applied to your account. Constructing dynamical systems having homoclinic bifurcation points of codimension two. You has not logged in origin have two options hinari requires you to log in before first you mean access to articles from allowance of Dynamical Systems. Learn more about Amazon Prime. Dynamical system in nLab. Dynamical Systems Mathematical Sciences. In this volume, the authors present a collection of surveys on various aspects of the theory of bifurcations of differentiable dynamical systems and related topics. Since it contains items is not enter your country yet. -
Thermodynamic Properties of Coupled Map Lattices 1 Introduction
Thermodynamic properties of coupled map lattices J´erˆome Losson and Michael C. Mackey Abstract This chapter presents an overview of the literature which deals with appli- cations of models framed as coupled map lattices (CML’s), and some recent results on the spectral properties of the transfer operators induced by various deterministic and stochastic CML’s. These operators (one of which is the well- known Perron-Frobenius operator) govern the temporal evolution of ensemble statistics. As such, they lie at the heart of any thermodynamic description of CML’s, and they provide some interesting insight into the origins of nontrivial collective behavior in these models. 1 Introduction This chapter describes the statistical properties of networks of chaotic, interacting el- ements, whose evolution in time is discrete. Such systems can be profitably modeled by networks of coupled iterative maps, usually referred to as coupled map lattices (CML’s for short). The description of CML’s has been the subject of intense scrutiny in the past decade, and most (though by no means all) investigations have been pri- marily numerical rather than analytical. Investigators have often been concerned with the statistical properties of CML’s, because a deterministic description of the motion of all the individual elements of the lattice is either out of reach or uninteresting, un- less the behavior can somehow be described with a few degrees of freedom. However there is still no consistent framework, analogous to equilibrium statistical mechanics, within which one can describe the probabilistic properties of CML’s possessing a large but finite number of elements. -
Writing the History of Dynamical Systems and Chaos
Historia Mathematica 29 (2002), 273–339 doi:10.1006/hmat.2002.2351 Writing the History of Dynamical Systems and Chaos: View metadata, citation and similar papersLongue at core.ac.uk Dur´ee and Revolution, Disciplines and Cultures1 brought to you by CORE provided by Elsevier - Publisher Connector David Aubin Max-Planck Institut fur¨ Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Berlin, Germany E-mail: [email protected] and Amy Dahan Dalmedico Centre national de la recherche scientifique and Centre Alexandre-Koyre,´ Paris, France E-mail: [email protected] Between the late 1960s and the beginning of the 1980s, the wide recognition that simple dynamical laws could give rise to complex behaviors was sometimes hailed as a true scientific revolution impacting several disciplines, for which a striking label was coined—“chaos.” Mathematicians quickly pointed out that the purported revolution was relying on the abstract theory of dynamical systems founded in the late 19th century by Henri Poincar´e who had already reached a similar conclusion. In this paper, we flesh out the historiographical tensions arising from these confrontations: longue-duree´ history and revolution; abstract mathematics and the use of mathematical techniques in various other domains. After reviewing the historiography of dynamical systems theory from Poincar´e to the 1960s, we highlight the pioneering work of a few individuals (Steve Smale, Edward Lorenz, David Ruelle). We then go on to discuss the nature of the chaos phenomenon, which, we argue, was a conceptual reconfiguration as -
Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Applied Sciences
v.;.;.:.:.:.;.;.^ ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Oivisipn 2000 Please be aware that all of the Missing Pages in this document were originally blank pages BARC/2OOO/E/OO3 GOVERNMENT OF INDIA ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Division BHABHA ATOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE MUMBAI, INDIA 2000 BARC/2000/E/003 BIBLIOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION SHEET FOR TECHNICAL REPORT (as per IS : 9400 - 1980) 01 Security classification: Unclassified • 02 Distribution: External 03 Report status: New 04 Series: BARC External • 05 Report type: Technical Report 06 Report No. : BARC/2000/E/003 07 Part No. or Volume No. : 08 Contract No.: 10 Title and subtitle: Role of nonlinear dynamics and chaos in applied sciences 11 Collation: 111 p., figs., ills. 13 Project No. : 20 Personal authors): Quissan V. Lawande; Nirupam Maiti 21 Affiliation ofauthor(s): Theoretical Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 22 Corporate authoifs): Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai - 400 085 23 Originating unit : Theoretical Physics Division, BARC, Mumbai 24 Sponsors) Name: Department of Atomic Energy Type: Government Contd...(ii) -l- 30 Date of submission: January 2000 31 Publication/Issue date: February 2000 40 Publisher/Distributor: Head, Library and Information Services Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 42 Form of distribution: Hard copy 50 Language of text: English 51 Language of summary: English 52 No. of references: 40 refs. 53 Gives data on: Abstract: Nonlinear dynamics manifests itself in a number of phenomena in both laboratory and day to day dealings. -
A Simple Scalar Coupled Map Lattice Model for Excitable Media
This is a repository copy of A simple scalar coupled map lattice model for excitable media. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/74667/ Monograph: Guo, Y., Zhao, Y., Coca, D. et al. (1 more author) (2010) A simple scalar coupled map lattice model for excitable media. Research Report. ACSE Research Report no. 1016 . Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version - refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher’s website. Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ A Simple Scalar Coupled Map Lattice Model for Excitable Media Yuzhu Guo, Yifan Zhao, Daniel Coca, and S. A. Billings Research Report No. 1016 Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering The University of Sheffield Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK 8 September 2010 A Simple Scalar Coupled Map Lattice Model for Excitable Media Yuzhu Guo, Yifan Zhao, Daniel Coca, and S.A.