Estimating the Size and Structure of the Underground Commercial Sex Economy in Eight Major US Cities
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RESEAR RESEARCH REPORT MARC CH REPORT MARCH, 201 H , 2 0 1 4 4 Estimating the Size and Structure of the Underground Commercial Sex Economy in Eight Major US Cities MEREDITH DANK, PHD URBAN INSTITUTE BILAL KHAN, PHD JOHN JAY COLLEGE P. MITCHELL DOWNEY URBAN INSTITUTE CYBELE KOTONIAS URBAN INSTITUTE DEBORAH MAYER URBAN INSTITUTE COLLEEN OWENS URBAN INSTITUTE LAURA PACIFICI URBAN INSTITUTE [Type text] LILLY YU RICE UNIVERSITY Copyright © March 2014. The Urban Institute. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. This project was supported by Award No. 2010-IJ-CX-1674, awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice. The authors would like to thank a number of individuals for all their support and hard work during the course of this study. We would especially like to thank Ric Curtis, Samantha Lowry, Meagan Cahill, Samuel Bieler, Juan Pedroza, Doug Gilchrist-Scott, Aaron Horvath, Pamela Lachman, Shebani Rao, Leah Ouellet, Sarah Trager, Leila Collins, Aqsa Ashai, and Bill Adams for their assistance with data collection, analysis and writing of the final report. We would also like to thank Janine Zweig of the Urban Institute for her careful review of this report. We would also like to thank all the law enforcement officials who took the time to speak with us about their local underground commercial sex economies. Additionally, we are grateful for all the expertise Bradley Myles from Polaris Project and Kristen Anderson, Michelle Collins, and Staca Urie from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children shared with us regarding the UCSE in the United States. The narratives and data collected for this report would not have been possible without the cooperation of the key players and facilitators in the underground commercial sex economy that were approached to participate in this study. We would like to thank them for speaking so candidly about the crimes that led to their arrest and ultimate conviction. Lastly, a very big thank you to our NIJ grant monitor, John Picarelli, for all his support and believing that this study could be accomplished. Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Goals of This Study ................................................................................................................... 1 Research Questions ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Main Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Sex Trafficking and Sex Work Findings ......................................................................................................... 2 Child Pornography Findings .......................................................................................................................... 3 Policy and Practice Implications .................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6 Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Background on the Prevalence of Human Trafficking in the United States ................................................ 7 Chapter 2 Research Questions and Methodology ................................................................................. 9 Research Questions ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Terminology .................................................................................................................................................... 9 Research Design ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Site Selection Process ................................................................................................................................... 10 Stakeholder Interview Process ..................................................................................................................... 12 Offender Interview Process .......................................................................................................................... 13 The Evolution of UCSE Estimate ................................................................................................................. 16 Limitations of the Study .............................................................................................................................. 20 Chapter 3 Methodology and Derivation of Illicit Economy Estimates ................................................. 22 Existing Approaches to Estimate Illegal, Underground Economies .......................................................... 23 Process for Deriving Estimates (Overview) ................................................................................................. 24 1.1. The Law of Cash Conservation .......................................................................................................... 25 1.1.1 Process for Deriving Estimates (In Depth) .................................................................................. 27 1.2. Constraints by Proxy Ratios .............................................................................................................. 27 1.2.1. Linear Proxy ............................................................................................................................28 1.2.2. Linear Proxy .......................................................................................................................... 34 1.2.3. Linear Proxy ......................................................................................................................... 35 1.2.4. Linear Proxy ........................................................................................................................... 36 1.3. The Left Hand Side : Estimating Total Cash in Circulation ......................................................... 36 1.4. The Linear Program ...........................................................................................................................38 1.4.1. Sex Proxy Ratio Constraints ........................................................................................................38 1.4.2. Drug Proxy Ratio Constraints .................................................................................................... 40 1.4.3. Gun Proxy Ratio Constraints ...................................................................................................... 42 1.4.4. Other Proxy Ratio Constraints ................................................................................................... 44 1.4.5. Positivity Constraints .................................................................................................................. 46 1.4.6. An Objective Function Based on the Law of Cash Conservation .............................................. 47 1.4.7. Techniques for Solving the Linear Program ............................................................................. 48 1.5. Geometric Intuition .......................................................................................................................... 48 1.6. Solution of the Linear Program ......................................................................................................... 49 1.6.1. Sex (UCSE) Rankings .................................................................................................................. 50 iii 1.6.2. Drugs Economy Rankings .......................................................................................................... 51 1.6.3. Guns Economy Rankings ............................................................................................................ 52 1.7. Solution Quality and Robustness ...................................................................................................... 52 Solution Quality .................................................................................................................................... 52 Solution Robustness ............................................................................................................................. 53 Chapter 4 Stakeholder Perspectives on the Underground Commercial Sex Economy ........................ 56 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Findings by City ............................................................................................................................................ 58 Miami, Florida .........................................................................................................................................