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Naval War College Review Volume 54 Article 30 Number 3 Summer 2001 Summer 2001 Review The .SU . Naval War College Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation War College, The .SU . Naval (2001) "Summer 2001 Review," Naval War College Review: Vol. 54 : No. 3 , Article 30. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol54/iss3/30 This Full Issue is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. War College: Summer 2001 Review NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIE COLLEGE WAR NAVAL NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW W Summer 2001 Volume LIV, Number 3 Summer 2001 Summer S E T A T S D E T I N U E H T N A V A L W A R C O L L E RI B RI A G V I U O E S T M AR I V I C Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2001 1 Naval War College Review, Vol. 54 [2001], No. 3, Art. 30 Cover In one of his best-known presentations, “The Future Security Environment: Chal- lenges to Maritime Security,” the President of the Naval War College, Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, offers several ways of conceptualizing the “domain” in which the U.S. Navy operates. “Of them, a less traditional, but compelling, approach is electronic. If one plots on a blank sheet of paper the location of radio emissions re- lated to commerce, the result is a map of the world, with very prominent zones co- inciding with conflict fault-lines. An analysis of the world’s finely tuned net- work of shipping produces a pattern com- plementary with the zones of most intense electronic activity. All this produces a coherent pattern, one that suggests that the U.S. Navy will continue to be forward deployed and that gives a pretty good in- dication of where those deployments will be.” Our cover (adapted from the briefing graphic, produced by the College’s Graph- ics Department, to which the Admiral spoke) depicts that coherent pattern and, in so doing, points to this issue’s focal theme—forward deployment and the U.S. Navy. Dr. Daniel Gouré of the Lexington Institute challenges the neces- sity for forward deployment and the ca- pacity of the Navy to maintain it. Prof. James F. Miskel, of the Naval War Col- lege faculty, takes a different view, accept- ing the requirement but arguing the need for a rigorous (ideally economic) metric if the U.S. Navy is to “be there” in the places in which it can best support the na- tion’s interests. An early iteration of the Admiral’s pre- sentation was reprinted as our Summer 1999 “President’s Notes.” A link to the graphics can be found on the College’s home page, http://www.nwc.navy.mil. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol54/iss3/30 2 War College: Summer 2001 Review NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Summer 2001 Volume LIV, Number 3 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2001 3 Naval War College Review, Vol. 54 [2001], No. 3, Art. 30 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW ADVISORY BOARD Professor Inis L. Claude, Jr. Dr. Norman Friedman Professor Colin Gray Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., U.S. Navy, Ret. The Naval War College Review was established in 1948 as a forum for discus- Professor Paul M. Kennedy sion of public policy matters of interest to the maritime services. The thoughts Professor James R. Kurth and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are The Honorable Robert J. Murray not necessarily those of the U.S. government, the U.S. Navy Department, or Professor George H. Quester the Naval War College. Professor Eugene V. Rostow The journal is published quarterly. Distribution is limited generally to com- Vice Admiral James B. Stockdale, U.S. Navy, Ret. mands and activities of the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard; regu- Lieutenant General Bernard E. Trainor, lar and reserve officers of U.S. services; foreign officers and civilians having a U.S. Marine Corps, Ret. present or previous affiliation with the Naval War College; selected U.S. gov- Professor Russell F. Weigley ernment officials and agencies; and selected U.S. and international libraries, The Honorable G. William Whitehurst research centers, publications, and educational institutions. PRESIDENT, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Contributors Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, U.S. Navy Please request the standard contributors’ guidance from the managing editor or access it on-line before submitting manuscripts. The Naval War College Re- PROVOST, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE view neither offers nor makes compensation for articles or book reviews, and it Rear Admiral Barbara E. McGann, U.S. Navy assumes no responsibility for the return of manuscripts, although every effort is DEAN OF NAVAL WARFARE STUDIES AND made to return those not accepted. In submitting work, the sender warrants EDITOR-IN-CHIEF that it is original, that it is the sender’s property, and that neither it nor a similar Professor Alberto R. Coll work by the sender has been accepted or is under consideration elsewhere. Professor Thomas B. 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Other Naval War College Offices 401.841.3089 Periodicals postage paid at Newport, R.I. POSTMASTERS, send address changes to: Naval War College Review, Code 32S, Naval War College, 686 Design by Chapman and Partners, Warren, R.I. Cushing Rd., Newport, R.I. 02841-1207. Composition and typesetting by JIL Information Systems, Newport, R.I. ISSN 0028-1484 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol54/iss3/30 4 War College: Summer 2001 Review CONTENTS President’s Forum. 7 More than ten years ago, historian Colin Gray asserted that, to put it bluntly, America has become accustomed to playing “away games.” America has enjoyed the great strategic advantage of decid- ing which wars to fight and whether to win or lose them. But now, many argue that it will not be so for long: the preferred American way of war is increasingly at risk. Forward Presence and the Navy The Tyranny of Forward Presence . 11 Daniel Gouré A cardinal principle of Navy strategic planning is that “shaping” the international environment is a necessary and appropriate mission. However, the ever-increasing scope of forward presence exerts a tyrannical hold on the future of the Navy, a hold that threatens—in an era of constrained defense budgets and rapidly changing threats—to break the force. “Being There” Matters—But Where? . 25 James F. Miskel The driving factor in determining the requirements for routine, noncrisis forward presence ought to be reasoned, objective judgments about the relative importance of the various regions of the world to the United States. One approach is to define specific criteria—and for the time being, the most sensible criteria are economic. India and Pakistan Thinking about the Unthinkable . 40 Paul D. Taylor In 1998 and 1999 a series of simulations and “decision events” examined the possible conse- quences of recent ominous developments in South Asia. The most compelling result was that none of the experts, from a variety of backgrounds, nations, and organizations, argued that the sce- nario—a dispute over Kashmir leading to a nuclear exchange—could not happen.