Krause Fund Research Spring 2021 National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: FIZZ) April 20, 2021 Stock Rating: SELL Consumer Staples – Non-Alcoholic Beverages Analysts Target Price: $35 - $42 Emily Ellinger |
[email protected] DCF Model: $41.53 Meghan Maleri |
[email protected] Rachel Recker |
[email protected] Relative Model: $35.27 Investment Thesis Price Data Current Price: $50.19 National Beverage Corp. is a mid-cap provider of juices, sodas, and sparkling water brands. Its emphasis on meeting ever-changing consumer trends, as well as indulging in their loyal customer 52-Week Range: $23.99-$98.21 base has demonstrated historic stability. However, we do not project strong growth in future performance. Due to the increasingly competitive nature of the beverage industry, especially in Key Statistics the sparkling water segment, we believe the stock is overvalued by 16.3-30.3%; therefore, we are Market Capitalization (B): $4.84 recommending a sell position. Shares Outstanding (T): 94,000 Drivers of Thesis • Avg 1-5 yr weekly beta: 0.494 Lack of innovation: National Beverage Corp. is limited by its majority insider ownership which is hesitant to innovate. This is apparent in its limited delegation of funds for its Fwd Price/Earnings: 39.4 research and development facilities, which are almost exclusively used for regulation and compliance testing. As a result, it is falling behind competition in satisfying Price/Earnings (LTM): 36.0 changing consumer trends in the industry as indicated by LaCroix’s loss of retail market Financial Metrics share in 20198. • Weak global presence: National Beverage Corp. operates only in the United States and 2020 Revenue $1,000,394 exports limited volume of products to Canada.